Dr. Guido David @iamguidodavid Twitter profile

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

Google Trends on Presidential candidates as of March 22, 2022, showing 7-day moving average over 3 months. Data obtained from Google. Disclaimer: these are scores based on queries in the Philippines. This is not polllng data, and will not necessarily correlate with voter shares.

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

This is basically what I have been saying all along. Yet some insist on it being an irregularity. Fortunately, the UP School of Statistics says the same thing, that the 68:32 ratio is not evidence of any irregularity in the counting of votes. I hope we can put this matter to rest

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

OCTA Research Tugon ng Masa April 22 to 25, 2022 Presidential Preference Survey Results compared with Comelec unofficial tally (more than 98% election returns).

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

OCTA Research Presidential Preference Nationwide Survey 2400 respondents conducted April 22 to 25, 2022. Margin of error +/-2%. Survey was conducted face to face.

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

The first 1 million Covid-19 cases in the country were recorded 416 days after the start of the surge. Now, 128 days later, we will have recorded 2 million Covid-19 cases in the country today. Let us make this our goal: there will be no 3rd million cases ever in the country.

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

So it looks like the increase in new cases in NCR is substantial. 572 today, 191 from Manila. More than our projections.

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

OCTA Research TNM survey presidential preference conducted Feb 12 to 17, 2022 (nationwide 1200 respondents). Margin of error 3% @dzbb @DZAR1026 @dzrhnews @News5PH @NewsRmn @ali_sotto @dwiz882 @PhilstarNews @manilabulletin @inquirerdotnet @UNTVNewsRescue @RMMendozaMT

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

Sorry no analysis today, I am exhausted. But it looks like the number of cases today will be 20k+

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

Comparison of NCR numbers on 11.7.21 vs one year ago. Note that the number of tests now is 38% higher compared to last year. Nearly all indicators are better now. @dzbb @allangatus @dzrhnews @DZAR1026 @News5PH @NewsRmn @dwiz882 @ABSCBNNews @RMMendozaMT @bworldph @haydeesampang

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

12.28.21 NCR positivity rate exceeds 5%. Cases are projected to hit 1,200 (with at least 400 in the NCR) by 12.29.21. Please be extra careful. @dzbb @allangatus @dzrhnews @DZAR1026 @News5PH @NewsRmn @dzme_1530khz @ANCALERTS @roribabyko @NET25TV @BomboRadyoNews @haydeesampang

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

Happy New Year Everyone! Hope you all stay safe and healthy. We hope 2022 will be much better, somehow. I need a break. I will not be tweeting anymore Covid-19 updates until next year.

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

This is very serious. 9061 is a record for the NCR. The daily average has increased to 6063, higher than the peak last April. The reproduction number in the NCR is now 1.44 while the growth rate is 21%. @dzbb @allangatus @wengsalvacion @cnnphilippines @dzrhnews @News5PH @NewsRmn

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

Honestly, I am starting to get really concerned. The positivity rate has suddenly spiked after being stable for sometime. I hope I am wrong but I think the R in NCR is about to increase again. @dzbb @allangatus @wengsalvacion @onenewsph @cnnphilippines @dzrhnews @smninews

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

OCTA Research Vice-Presidential Preference Nationwide Survey 2400 respondents conducted April 22 to 25, 2022. Margin of error +/-2%. Survey was conducted face to face. The survey was not commissioned.

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

11630 in the NCR today, a new record eclipsing the previous high of 9032 cases on September 11. What level will it peak? We don't know yet. This is just going through the population. Stay safe everyone. Double your masks when going out.

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

People want to know the probability of 433 6-55 winners. It is 1 to 1.87e-1224. That is 1 out of 1 followed by 1224 zeros. The age of the universe is 4.3e17 seconds (17 zeros). However, the winning combination, divisible by 9, could mean more people bet on it. #dzbb @DZAR1026

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

Reproduction number in the NCR decreased to 4.69. The reproduction number was at 6.16 on Jan 2. This is a good sign. Until then, let us stay safe everyone and follow best health practices. @dzbb @dzrhnews @NewsRmn @News5PH @allangatus @dwiz882 @dzme_1530khz @DZAR1026 @ABSCBNNews

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

I am now projecting a total of around 55M votes, with BBM getting 32 to 33M and Leni getting 15 to 16M.

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

10 months

Col. Nebrjia is a hard working and effective MMDA unit head. I hope his suspension gets lifted soon.

Maeanne Los Baños-Oroceo

@maeannelosbanos

10 months

JUST IN: MMDA Chairman Artes puts MMDA Col Nebrija under preventive suspension for mistakenly saying that Sen Revilla’s car violated EDSA bus way “pagkakamali ni Nebrija ay nasabi nya na si Sen Revilla ang nakasakay when truth ay di naman pala.” @News5PH @onenewsph

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

Sharing MBC-DZRH @dzrhnews presidential survey conducted nationwide on April 18 to 19, 2022. This does not look substantially different from the recent OCTA Research survey results.

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

NCR except Manila under alert level 4. So maybe it is still like MECQ.

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

NCR positivity rate spikes even higher to 28%. I now expect the same range of new cases as yesterday. Possibly 3500 to 4000 in PH and 2500 to 3000 in NCR. Please wear your masks. @dzbb @dzrhnews @DZAR1026 @NewsRmn @allangatus @News5PH @dzme_1530khz @dwiz882 @ABSCBNNews @EagleNews

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

Difficult to make projections with no data, but we could be seeing 500 to 600 new cases today. It is not clear if cases are leveling off or if there will be a change in the direction (again, having no data means analysis is nearly impossible).

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

Late post but 25k to 30k seems possible today.

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

Woke up feeling good but I might get a migraine later when actual number of Covid cases come out. It looks like 21k to 24k is the range today. I am going with the median 22.5k which would be a new record high. Let's hope I am wrong. @dzbb @wengsalvacion @allangatus @alvinelchico

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

This is it mga kababayans! This is not about surveys or google trends or rallies. Just go out and vote your candidates. This is what democracy is all about.

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

At gawad parangal, quezon city.

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

NCR daily new cases could be peaking already. Reproduction number down to 3.77. The next few days will clarify the trends. We must continue efforts to slow down the pandemic in the NCR. @dzbb @ABSCBNNews @dzrhnews @allangatus @NewsRmn @News5PH @dzme_1530khz @dwiz882 @PhilstarNews

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

OCTA Presidential Survey conducted April 2 to 6, 2022. BBM 57%, Leni 22%, Isko 9%, Pacquiao 7%, Ping 4%. @dzbb @allangatus @DZAR1026 @MlaStandard @dwiz882 @News5PH @dzrhnews @NewsRmn @dzme_1530khz @ali_sotto @EagleNews @PHINewsNet1 @PatrickTulfo @ronjabal @sarchavez

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

Wow naman congratulations outstanding male news presenter of the year! @alvinelchico

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

Presented at Go Negosyo Townhall. Projections for new cases in the NCR, based on CURRENT PATTERNS. If the projections come true, we should have less than 1k new cases per day in the NCR by Valentine's and less than 500 by end of February. @dzbb @DZAR1026 @allangatus @ali_sotto

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

It is 2022 and back to tweet reports :( The positivity rate in the NCR increased to 21%. The reproduction number jumped to 3.19. This projects to about 3000 new cases in the NCR on January 1 and about 4000 in the country. Stay safe in 2022. @dzbb @dzrhnews @allangatus @DZAR1026

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

Covid-19 in Southeast Asia. Philippines, China, Taiwan, Timor-Leste at VERY LOW RISK. Cambodia at LOW RISK. Brunei, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia on a SEVERE OUTBREAK @dzbb @DZAR1026 @allangatus @NewsRmn @dwiz882 @PatrickTulfo @dzrhnews @News5PH @ali_sotto

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

NCR reproduction number down to 0.91 for the first time 12.23.21. While this is good news and confirms a downward trend not just in new cases but also in active cases, we have to continue follow health protocols to prevent a reversal of the trend. @dzbb @allangatus @DZAR1026

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

(Requested) Comparison of OCTA Research Survey results. February 12 to 17 vs April 2 to 6.

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

March 15, 2022, two years after the first ECQ in the country. I am expecting around 300 new cases today. We breached 300 for the first time around March 29, 2020. Hopefully we will still see the DOH database updated so we can confirm daily numbers.

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

Kamuning Bakery Café’s “Pandesal Forum” with @WilsonLeeFlores Date/Time: May 6 Friday 1:30 PM Panelist: Felix Muga II, Ph.D. Topics: NEXTGEN ANALYTICS GROUP TO PRESENT DATA FORESEEING VP LENI WIN @AkoSiMel_issa @iamsouperwoman @wilsonchua

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

The SARS-CoV2 XBB symptoms include: Fever or chills, Cough Shortness of breath or difficulty breathing, Fatigue, Muscle or body aches, Headache, New loss of taste or smell, Sore throat, Congestion or runny nose, Nausea or vomiting, Diarrhea #COVID19 #Covid

The Fast-Spreading New COVID-19 Subvariant XBB Is Part of a ‘New Class’ of Omicron

It’s drawing attention due to its ability to evade immunity.

www.prevention.com

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

NCR daily growth rate steadily declining, now at just 3%. If this trend is real, we could expect 16 to 18k cases in the NCR today, and 15 to 16k tomorrow. @dzbb @dzrhnews @NewsRmn @News5PH @allangatus @DZAR1026 @dwiz882 @EagleNews @ABSCBNNews @PhilstarNews @dzme_1530khz

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

@77_burner I don't consider it unusual at this stage, because the numbers are large, fluctuations do not tend to occur anymore. I think Dr Cayton made some statistical checks and detected nothing out of the ordinary

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

NCR positivity rate reached 50%, likely to exceed 50% by January 7 (today's data).

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

13543 in the NCR today, about 37% of total cases, even lower than my prediction of 14k. Sorry to the nonbelievers, but it does look like it is decreasing. Still, let's wait a few more days. @iamsouperwoman

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

NCR new cases on a downward trajectory as the reproduction number decreased to 1.79 and the weekly growth rate becomes negative at -10%. SA pattern becoming true. @dzrhnews @dzbb @allangatus @NewsRmn @News5PH @dwiz882 @ali_sotto @dzme_1530khz @DZAR1026 @RMMendozaMT @haydeesampang

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

Two years ago, April 8 2020 we shared our first Covid report with 2 month projections (correct within 10-20%). Since then we have reported on Covid every 1-2 weeks, sometimes daily during surges. Hopefully, the worst in Covid is now behind us. Let us pray for better days ahead.

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

NCR Positivity rate at 14%. More than 2000 new cases possible on December 31, with 2500+ nationwide. Let us all celebrate the coming of 2022 in a safe manner. Mask up! @dzbb @allangatus @dzrhnews @DZAR1026 @News5PH @NewsRmn @dzme_1530khz @NET25TV @PhilstarNews @manilabulletin

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

Happy Holidays everyone! My Christmas wish: 1 Covid becomes endemic and no omicron. 2 Those affected by Odette will be given much needed assistance and their lives return to normal asap. 3 Good health and a prosperous year for my beloved kababayans. @dzbb @DZAR1026 @allangatus

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

Quite unexpected. I am happy to be very wrong this time as this is way lower than even the optimistic scenarios. There may be a lot of backlog though. With this level, I would not be surprised to see 7500 to 9k in the NCR.

Department of Health Philippines

@DOHgovph

3 years

Ngayong 4 PM, Enero 19, 2022, ang Department of Health ay nakapagtala ng 22,958 na karagdagang kaso ng COVID-19. Samantala ay mayroon namang naitalang 36,611 na gumaling at 82 na pumanaw.

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

Tuesdays are my favorite days to predict because I can be overly optimistic with my expectations. My predictions are 9999 in the country and 1200 in the NCR, give or take. I am prepared to be wrong of course. Happy Chinese New Year everyone and stay safe!

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

NCR Update Nov 1 2021. NCR and all 17 LGUs are at low risk. Navotas is at very low risk. Reproduction number is below 0.9 in all LGUs which means all LGUs are still on a downward trend. @dzbb @dzrhnews @DZAR1026 @cnnphilippines @News5PH @allangatus @NewsRmn @dwiz882 @dzme_1530khz

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

When numbers are delayed, forecasts are usually off by a lot 🤣

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

4018 in the NCR today close to revised expectations. We could have less than 3k tomorrow. Actuals still tracking below Jan 20 projections. At this rate we could have less than 1000 per day by first week of February.

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

Gift from my sister visiting from abroad. Old comic books. Yay!

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

There are no winners* in the pandemic. We all lost something. Some of us have not even come to realize what we lost. We mourn for those who were not fortunate. We need to move forward if we want a better tomorrow.

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

Not expecting any surprises today. The range is from 6 to 8k so the median of 7k seems more likely. It looks like gone are the days of 10k+ cases, barring an occasional backlog dump. By next week we could be looking at days with just 5k new cases

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

NCR expected to break records today 1.6.21 with 10k to 11k new cases, and 15 to 16k in the country. Tomorrow, the country is likely to exceed 20k new cases. @dzbb @DZAR1026 @allangatus @NewsRmn @dzrhnews

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

1092 new cases in NCR, just as predicted (1k+). 351 from Manila, 170 from Quezon City :(

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

LGUs with the highest reported cases by DOH on 08.20.21. @dzbb @DZMMTeleRadyo @ABSCBNNews @ANCALERTS @cnnphilippines @dzrhnews @FEBC_ph @smninews @dwiz882 @onenewsph @UNTVNewsRescue @TV5manila @BomboRadyoNews @NET25TV @maconsuelodp

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

NCR 2270 (12%), a good number and below expectations. Calabarzon 2162 (12%), Central Luzon 1477 (8%). Outside NCR Plus 12282 (68%). It looks like it has peaked outside NCR Plus as a whole, cases will likely remain below 20k from here on and generally decrease.

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

The Covid-19 wave in the NCR may be close to peaking (or may have already peaked), based on a slowing of the growth rate to 32%. Trends will be clearer by next week. @dzbb @allangatus @DZAR1026 @dzrhnews @News5PH @NewsRmn @dwiz882 @ali_sotto @PhilstarNews @MlaStandard

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

NCR weekly growth rate decreased to -20% and reproduction number down to 0.99 as of 9.22.21 @dzbb @cnnphilippines @allangatus @Joseph_Morong @News5PH @dzrhnews @onenewsph @dwiz882 @NewsRmn @PatrickTulfo @CarolynBonquin @smninews @haydeesampang @BomboRadyoNews @EagleNews

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

OCTA Research Senatorial Preference Survey for March 5 to 10, 2022 (posted by @tribunephl but confirming that this is data from OCTA Research). @dzrhnews @DZAR1026 @gmanews @allangatus @News5PH @ManilaTimesNEWS @dwiz882 @NewsRmn

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

OCTA Statement: 1. The NCR remains at LOW RISK based on our metrics 2. We did not recommend an escalation of alert levels or lockdown 3. We hope the BBM administration will choose a Health Secretary who is also a champion for the Filipino people and values independent science

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

It could be up to 12k today in the PH

NewsWatch Plus PH

@newswatchplusph

3 years

OCTA Research fellow @iamguidodavid : Today we're expecting 10,000 to 11,000 cases — 8,000 of those in Metro Manila

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

2751 in the NCR, right in the middle of projected range of 2.5k to 3k. Actuals are still tracking below Jan 20 projections. At this rate, new cases in the NCR could go below 500 by Feb 14. Reproduction number now 0.71 in NCR @docbenjisays @dzbb @allangatus @DZAR1026 @ali_sotto

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

NCR daily growth rate just 2%. The NCR could be close to the peak in new cases, or the NCR has reached its limits in testing capacity. @dzbb @dzrhnews @allangatus @News5PH @DZAR1026 @NewsRmn @dwiz882 @dzme_1530khz @EagleNews @ABSCBNNews @sofiatomacruz @PhilstarNews @haydeesampang

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

Concerned again about NCR. Notice there was a shift in the direction of the 7-day moving average (orange line) one week after MECQ. If this shift continues, the reproduction number will increase again @dzbb @allangatus @cnnphilippines @dzrhnews @onenewsph @NewsRmn @smninews

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

Positivity rate in the NCR exceeds 50% but is it slowing down? Will NCR peak soon? Daily projections: NCR 17k PH 27k. @dzbb @dzrhnews @allangatus @DZAR1026 @News5PH @NewsRmn @dwiz882 @dzme_1530khz @EagleNews @ABSCBNNews @PhilstarNews @haydeesampang @CarolynBonquin @bworldph

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

An uncharacteristic spike in cases observed in Iligan City. The reproduction number jumped from 0.40 to 2.38. Is this due to omicron? Until we find out more, it might be best to test people coming from Lanao del Norte. @dzrhnews @dzbb @allangatus @News5PH @NewsRmn @ABSCBNNews

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

Happy New Year everyone!

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

NCR new Covid cases on downward trend. 7-day average down to less than 500. Positivity rate down to 11.6% from 14.6%, reproduction number decreased to 0.74. The September wave in NCR was likely driven by XBB/XBC. Let's hope the downtrend continues until the holidays. #Covid @dzbb

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

No omicron yet in PH so we continue to expect very low numbers. I expect a Tuesday dip to around 200 new cases today December 14, 2021 (with a range of 150 to 250).

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

The 7-day average of new Covid cases in the PH decreased to 2959 as of August 27, down 15% from the previous week. Reproduction number decreased to 0.91. Current trends project to less than 1k new cases per day by mid September and 500 daily by end of September. #COVID19 @dzbb

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

485 today in the NCR, less than 500 as what we predicted 3 weeks ago.

Inquirer

@inquirerdotnet

3 years

IN TIME FOR VALENTINE'S. The number of new COVID-19 cases per day in Metro Manila could decrease to just below 500 by Valentine’s Day, according to independent analytics group OCTA Research. READ:

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

724 today in the NCR, below 1k as expected. This is good particularly as this is not on a Tuesday or Wednesday. Actuals in the NCR are now below our Jan 20 projections again, headed towards less than 500 by V-Day

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

@WLoguenario We cannot declare a winner based on survey results. People must go out and vote.

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

Well said Dr Benjamin Co, a distinguished infectious disease expert with substantial clinical experience to back it up, who has my utmost respect.

docbenjisays

@docbenjisays

3 years

Bakit niya inaaway lahat ng mga wind engineers and experts? It’s not like you have ownership to expertise in all areas of infection control. Gosh! How can the government even hire an obstinate person who thinks he’s the only one that is right!?!

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1K

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

The NCR growth rate shown has decreased. This is an indication that cases in NCR COULD be peaking soon, maybe 1st or 2nd week of July. While this trend is not final and can still change, we must continue to practice health measures so that cases will start to decrease soon.

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

Nov 16 2021. The expected range today is from 900 to 1500 and I am predicting 899 (bullish!) and a continuation of the downward trend in cases in the country.

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

9.18.21. Early indications are that the surge may have already peaked in the NCR, but efforts must be sustained to ensure the trend continues downward. @dzbb @allangatus @cnnphilippines @dzrhnews @smninews @News5PH @dwiz882 @RMMendozaMT @haydeesampang @sarchavez @CarolynBonquin

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

Active recent cases in the country by age group. There is an increase in the number of pediatric cases, which account for more than 1/8 of active (recent) cases. Credits to @docbenjisays for this.

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

0.05% of recent cases in the NCR are moderate, severe or critical based on DOH data. The public is advised to strictly adhere to minimum public health standards. @dzbb @dzrhnews @DZAR1026 @allangatus @NewsRmn @dwiz882 @dzme_1530khz @News5PH @EagleNews

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

I will be busy later so I am posting the predictions for today's numbers early. Median prediction is 18k, with a range of 16k to 20k. My gut prediction is a little less than 17k with 4400 to 4500 new cases in the NCR @wengsalvacion @allangatus @jrmnbos @nikkitix @iampinkywebb

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

With the latest number for new Covid-19 cases on 9.14.21, the reproduction number is down to 1.26 and growth rate at 10%. Let us continue to work together so our country heals faster. @dzbb @wengsalvacion @allangatus @cnnphilippines @dzrhnews @News5PH @DZMMTeleRadyo @smninews

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

Anyone who says that Rt or Ro is not used for forecasting epidemic curves clearly has no background in epidemiological modeling and has no business talking about forecasts. Every epi model (SIR, SEIR, etc.) and modeler since time have used the reproduction number for forecasting.

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115

Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

11.18.21 NCR one week growth rate becomes negative again at -7%. 7-Day average decreased from 407 to 379. Reproduction number at 0.5. Positivity rate at 3%, and projected to decrease to 2% by this week @dzbb @dzrhnews @allangatus @DZAR1026 @News5PH @NewsRmn @dzme_1530khz @dwiz882

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31

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

Cases are decreasing in Region 4A and 3, and rest of PH as a whole. The uptick in NCR yesterday was a surprise and not really supported by other indicators. We will see today if the uptick continues (I hope not). I am projecting 14 to 18k today but leaning towards 15k, NCR 2k

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

NCR daily new cases and 7-day moving average. The rate of increase is so dramatic. This is why the reproduction number is very high.

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

Hospital bed occupancy for Covid-19 in the NCR increased by 41% compared to the previous week. Hospital bed occupancy in the NCR is now at 23% while ICU occupancy is at 25%, still below the 70% critical threshold. @dzbb @allangatus @dzrhnews @docbenjisays @DrTonyLeachon @DZAR1026

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

Provinces/regions with the most new cases reported on 08.23.21 per DOH data. A high number of cases in Cagayan. @dzbb @cnnphilippines @dzrhnews @inquirerdotnet @smninews @rapplerdotcom @DrTonyLeachon @FEBC_ph @dwiz882 @NewsRmn @TV5manila @NET25TV @allangatus

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

Good news to data geeks. The DOH DataDrop is back, updated for January 15. I will be checking the positivity rate and HCUR later, which have not been updated since Jan 10. I hope the situation is still manageable. Thanks to @docbenjisays . @wilsonchua

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

Presented at Kamuning Bakery Pandesal Forum @WilsonLeeFlores . NCR Daily Positivity Rate decreased over the past two days. Let's hope it continues to decrease over the next days. If it does, then we may have already reached the peak. Stay safe everyone! #COVID19

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

11.30.21. As predicted, new cases in the NCR decreased to 200 by end of November. The actual 7-day average is 204, the lowest since June 5 to 11, 2020. The positivity rate is now 1.47% @dzbb @DZAR1026 @dzrhnews @NewsRmn @News5PH @allangatus @dwiz882 @PhilstarNews @RMMendozaMT

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

A new record, first time the country has hit 18k new cases in one day. Reproduction number at 1.43 in the country. The country is averaging 228 new deaths per day over the past week. Stay safe everyone. Let us protect ourselves and our loved ones.

Department of Health Philippines

@DOHgovph

3 years

Ngayong 4 PM, Agosto 23, 2021, ang Department of Health ay nakapagtala ng 18,332 na karagdagang kaso ng COVID-19. Samantala ay mayroon namang naitalang 13,794 na gumaling at 151 na pumanaw. Sa kabuuang bilang ng mga naitalang kaso sa bansa, 7.0% (130,350) ang aktibong kaso,

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131

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113

Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

Projecting about 750 new cases today, March 1, 2022. Hopefully, the downward trend continues and there are no more new variants. We are expecting that cases will now remain below 1k per day. Stay safe everyone.

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15

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

5433 today in the NCR, just 18% of the national number. The actuals are tracking lower than projections. I already have recalibrated projections but will continue to reference the Jan 20 projections (shown below). @docbenjisays @iampinkywebb @alvinelchico @ali_sotto

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20

115

Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

NCR Daily Growth Rate now at -1%. NCR new cases could be decreasing but trends need validation in the coming week. @dzbb @allangatus @ali_sotto @dzrhnews @DZAR1026 @NewsRmn @dzme_1530khz @ABSCBNNews @sofiatomacruz @News5PH

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

2 years

Monkeypox case in Iloilo. I believe this is the 4th reported case in the PH. "Nasa Iloilo na ang Monkeypox. Nalaman ng RMN News Team na meron isang Monkeypox positive patient na na-admit sa Iloilo."

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

NCR Report 11.19.21. Positivity rate in NCR down to 2% for the first time! Growth rate of -17%. NCR remained as low risk. 5 LGUs now at very low risk: Navotas, Caloocan, Pateros, Marikina and Valenzuela. @dzbb @dzrhnews @DZAR1026 @ABSCBNNews @News5PH @NewsRmn @dwiz882 @allangatus

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

Reproduction number in NCR decreased to 0.55 as of 10.18.21, the lowest since 5.18.21 when it was at 0.56. The 7-day average is now 1411. We hope we can keep Rt below 0.6 the rest of the year @dzbb @allangatus @cnnphilippines @DZAR1026 @dzrhnews @News5PH @NewsRmn @dwiz882

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Dr. Guido David

@iamguidodavid

3 years

12.3.21 Based on our metrics, the NCR is now classified as VERY LOW RISK. The figure compares the numbers this week vs the same week last year. @dzbb @DZAR1026 @dzrhnews @allangatus @News5PH @NewsRmn @dwiz882 @CarolynBonquin @PhilstarNews @PHINewsNet1 @EagleNews @manilabulletin

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