Google Trends on Presidential candidates as of March 22, 2022, showing 7-day moving average over 3 months. Data obtained from Google. Disclaimer: these are scores based on queries in the Philippines. This is not polllng data, and will not necessarily correlate with voter shares.
This is basically what I have been saying all along. Yet some insist on it being an irregularity. Fortunately, the UP School of Statistics says the same thing, that the 68:32 ratio is not evidence of any irregularity in the counting of votes. I hope we can put this matter to rest
OCTA Research Tugon ng Masa April 22 to 25, 2022 Presidential Preference Survey Results compared with Comelec unofficial tally (more than 98% election returns).
OCTA Research Presidential Preference Nationwide Survey 2400 respondents conducted April 22 to 25, 2022. Margin of error +/-2%. Survey was conducted face to face.
The first 1 million Covid-19 cases in the country were recorded 416 days after the start of the surge. Now, 128 days later, we will have recorded 2 million Covid-19 cases in the country today. Let us make this our goal: there will be no 3rd million cases ever in the country.
Happy New Year Everyone! Hope you all stay safe and healthy. We hope 2022 will be much better, somehow. I need a break. I will not be tweeting anymore Covid-19 updates until next year.
OCTA Research Vice-Presidential Preference Nationwide Survey 2400 respondents conducted April 22 to 25, 2022. Margin of error +/-2%. Survey was conducted face to face. The survey was not commissioned.
11630 in the NCR today, a new record eclipsing the previous high of 9032 cases on September 11. What level will it peak? We don't know yet. This is just going through the population. Stay safe everyone. Double your masks when going out.
People want to know the probability of 433 6-55 winners. It is 1 to 1.87e-1224. That is 1 out of 1 followed by 1224 zeros. The age of the universe is 4.3e17 seconds (17 zeros). However, the winning combination, divisible by 9, could mean more people bet on it.
#dzbb
@DZAR1026
JUST IN: MMDA Chairman Artes puts MMDA Col Nebrija under preventive suspension for mistakenly saying that Sen Revilla’s car violated EDSA bus way “pagkakamali ni Nebrija ay nasabi nya na si Sen Revilla ang nakasakay when truth ay di naman pala.”
@News5PH
@onenewsph
Sharing MBC-DZRH
@dzrhnews
presidential survey conducted nationwide on April 18 to 19, 2022. This does not look substantially different from the recent OCTA Research survey results.
Difficult to make projections with no data, but we could be seeing 500 to 600 new cases today. It is not clear if cases are leveling off or if there will be a change in the direction (again, having no data means analysis is nearly impossible).
Woke up feeling good but I might get a migraine later when actual number of Covid cases come out. It looks like 21k to 24k is the range today. I am going with the median 22.5k which would be a new record high. Let's hope I am wrong.
@dzbb
@wengsalvacion
@allangatus
@alvinelchico
This is it mga kababayans! This is not about surveys or google trends or rallies. Just go out and vote your candidates. This is what democracy is all about.
Presented at Go Negosyo Townhall. Projections for new cases in the NCR, based on CURRENT PATTERNS. If the projections come true, we should have less than 1k new cases per day in the NCR by Valentine's and less than 500 by end of February.
@dzbb
@DZAR1026
@allangatus
@ali_sotto
It is 2022 and back to tweet reports :( The positivity rate in the NCR increased to 21%. The reproduction number jumped to 3.19. This projects to about 3000 new cases in the NCR on January 1 and about 4000 in the country. Stay safe in 2022.
@dzbb
@dzrhnews
@allangatus
@DZAR1026
NCR reproduction number down to 0.91 for the first time 12.23.21. While this is good news and confirms a downward trend not just in new cases but also in active cases, we have to continue follow health protocols to prevent a reversal of the trend.
@dzbb
@allangatus
@DZAR1026
March 15, 2022, two years after the first ECQ in the country. I am expecting around 300 new cases today. We breached 300 for the first time around March 29, 2020. Hopefully we will still see the DOH database updated so we can confirm daily numbers.
The SARS-CoV2 XBB symptoms include: Fever or chills, Cough Shortness of breath or difficulty breathing, Fatigue, Muscle or body aches, Headache, New loss of taste or smell, Sore throat, Congestion or runny nose, Nausea or vomiting, Diarrhea
#COVID19
#Covid
@77_burner
I don't consider it unusual at this stage, because the numbers are large, fluctuations do not tend to occur anymore. I think Dr Cayton made some statistical checks and detected nothing out of the ordinary
13543 in the NCR today, about 37% of total cases, even lower than my prediction of 14k. Sorry to the nonbelievers, but it does look like it is decreasing. Still, let's wait a few more days.
@iamsouperwoman
Two years ago, April 8 2020 we shared our first Covid report with 2 month projections (correct within 10-20%). Since then we have reported on Covid every 1-2 weeks, sometimes daily during surges. Hopefully, the worst in Covid is now behind us. Let us pray for better days ahead.
Happy Holidays everyone! My Christmas wish: 1 Covid becomes endemic and no omicron. 2 Those affected by Odette will be given much needed assistance and their lives return to normal asap. 3 Good health and a prosperous year for my beloved kababayans.
@dzbb
@DZAR1026
@allangatus
Quite unexpected. I am happy to be very wrong this time as this is way lower than even the optimistic scenarios. There may be a lot of backlog though. With this level, I would not be surprised to see 7500 to 9k in the NCR.
Ngayong 4 PM, Enero 19, 2022, ang Department of Health ay nakapagtala ng 22,958 na karagdagang kaso ng COVID-19. Samantala ay mayroon namang naitalang 36,611 na gumaling at 82 na pumanaw.
Tuesdays are my favorite days to predict because I can be overly optimistic with my expectations. My predictions are 9999 in the country and 1200 in the NCR, give or take. I am prepared to be wrong of course. Happy Chinese New Year everyone and stay safe!
4018 in the NCR today close to revised expectations. We could have less than 3k tomorrow. Actuals still tracking below Jan 20 projections. At this rate we could have less than 1000 per day by first week of February.
There are no winners* in the pandemic. We all lost something. Some of us have not even come to realize what we lost. We mourn for those who were not fortunate. We need to move forward if we want a better tomorrow.
Not expecting any surprises today. The range is from 6 to 8k so the median of 7k seems more likely. It looks like gone are the days of 10k+ cases, barring an occasional backlog dump. By next week we could be looking at days with just 5k new cases
NCR 2270 (12%), a good number and below expectations. Calabarzon 2162 (12%), Central Luzon 1477 (8%). Outside NCR Plus 12282 (68%). It looks like it has peaked outside NCR Plus as a whole, cases will likely remain below 20k from here on and generally decrease.
OCTA Statement:
1. The NCR remains at LOW RISK based on our metrics 2. We did not recommend an escalation of alert levels or lockdown
3. We hope the BBM administration will choose a Health Secretary who is also a champion for the Filipino people and values independent science
2751 in the NCR, right in the middle of projected range of 2.5k to 3k. Actuals are still tracking below Jan 20 projections. At this rate, new cases in the NCR could go below 500 by Feb 14. Reproduction number now 0.71 in NCR
@docbenjisays
@dzbb
@allangatus
@DZAR1026
@ali_sotto
An uncharacteristic spike in cases observed in Iligan City. The reproduction number jumped from 0.40 to 2.38. Is this due to omicron? Until we find out more, it might be best to test people coming from Lanao del Norte.
@dzrhnews
@dzbb
@allangatus
@News5PH
@NewsRmn
@ABSCBNNews
NCR new Covid cases on downward trend. 7-day average down to less than 500. Positivity rate down to 11.6% from 14.6%, reproduction number decreased to 0.74. The September wave in NCR was likely driven by XBB/XBC. Let's hope the downtrend continues until the holidays.
#Covid
@dzbb
No omicron yet in PH so we continue to expect very low numbers. I expect a Tuesday dip to around 200 new cases today December 14, 2021 (with a range of 150 to 250).
The 7-day average of new Covid cases in the PH decreased to 2959 as of August 27, down 15% from the previous week. Reproduction number decreased to 0.91. Current trends project to less than 1k new cases per day by mid September and 500 daily by end of September.
#COVID19
@dzbb
IN TIME FOR VALENTINE'S. The number of new COVID-19 cases per day in Metro Manila could decrease to just below 500 by Valentine’s Day, according to independent analytics group OCTA Research.
READ:
724 today in the NCR, below 1k as expected. This is good particularly as this is not on a Tuesday or Wednesday. Actuals in the NCR are now below our Jan 20 projections again, headed towards less than 500 by V-Day
Bakit niya inaaway lahat ng mga wind engineers and experts? It’s not like you have ownership to expertise in all areas of infection control. Gosh! How can the government even hire an obstinate person who thinks he’s the only one that is right!?!
The NCR growth rate shown has decreased. This is an indication that cases in NCR COULD be peaking soon, maybe 1st or 2nd week of July. While this trend is not final and can still change, we must continue to practice health measures so that cases will start to decrease soon.
Nov 16 2021. The expected range today is from 900 to 1500 and I am predicting 899 (bullish!) and a continuation of the downward trend in cases in the country.
Active recent cases in the country by age group. There is an increase in the number of pediatric cases, which account for more than 1/8 of active (recent) cases. Credits to
@docbenjisays
for this.
I will be busy later so I am posting the predictions for today's numbers early. Median prediction is 18k, with a range of 16k to 20k. My gut prediction is a little less than 17k with 4400 to 4500 new cases in the NCR
@wengsalvacion
@allangatus
@jrmnbos
@nikkitix
@iampinkywebb
Anyone who says that Rt or Ro is not used for forecasting epidemic curves clearly has no background in epidemiological modeling and has no business talking about forecasts. Every epi model (SIR, SEIR, etc.) and modeler since time have used the reproduction number for forecasting.
Cases are decreasing in Region 4A and 3, and rest of PH as a whole. The uptick in NCR yesterday was a surprise and not really supported by other indicators. We will see today if the uptick continues (I hope not). I am projecting 14 to 18k today but leaning towards 15k, NCR 2k
Good news to data geeks. The DOH DataDrop is back, updated for January 15. I will be checking the positivity rate and HCUR later, which have not been updated since Jan 10. I hope the situation is still manageable. Thanks to
@docbenjisays
.
@wilsonchua
Presented at Kamuning Bakery Pandesal Forum
@WilsonLeeFlores
. NCR Daily Positivity Rate decreased over the past two days. Let's hope it continues to decrease over the next days. If it does, then we may have already reached the peak. Stay safe everyone!
#COVID19
A new record, first time the country has hit 18k new cases in one day. Reproduction number at 1.43 in the country. The country is averaging 228 new deaths per day over the past week. Stay safe everyone. Let us protect ourselves and our loved ones.
Ngayong 4 PM, Agosto 23, 2021, ang Department of Health ay nakapagtala ng 18,332 na karagdagang kaso ng COVID-19. Samantala ay mayroon namang naitalang 13,794 na gumaling at 151 na pumanaw.
Sa kabuuang bilang ng mga naitalang kaso sa bansa, 7.0% (130,350) ang aktibong kaso,
Projecting about 750 new cases today, March 1, 2022. Hopefully, the downward trend continues and there are no more new variants. We are expecting that cases will now remain below 1k per day. Stay safe everyone.
5433 today in the NCR, just 18% of the national number. The actuals are tracking lower than projections. I already have recalibrated projections but will continue to reference the Jan 20 projections (shown below).
@docbenjisays
@iampinkywebb
@alvinelchico
@ali_sotto
Monkeypox case in Iloilo. I believe this is the 4th reported case in the PH. "Nasa Iloilo na ang Monkeypox. Nalaman ng RMN News Team na meron isang Monkeypox positive patient na na-admit sa Iloilo."