John Horvick @horvick Twitter profile

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John Horvick

@horvick

4 years

Very odd article. Would have been helpful to include that Gresham is: - OR's 4th largest city - Shares a boarder with Portland - 38% communities of color - Only 21% of voters are registered Republicans - Clinton won the city by 12-points in 2016

100 Days of Protest: A Chasm Grows Between Portland and the Rest of Oregon (Published 2020)

The proximity of the left and the right in Oregon has created a dynamic of fear, mistrust and anger.

www.nytimes.com

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

New numbers are out today on the Oregon race for governor. Drazan 32% Kotek 31% Johnson 18%

The Oregonian/OregonLive poll shows Christine Drazan, Tina Kotek neck-and-neck in race for Oregon...

The poll was conducted by Portland firm DHM Research. Republican Christine Drazan and Democrat Tina Kotek are in a statistical tie for first place in the three-way race for governor with six weeks...

www.oregonlive.com

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

New Morning Consult's state-by-state governor approvals are out today. Again, Oregon's Kate Brown has the nation's highest disapproval number.

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John Horvick

@horvick

1 year

Received this in the mail unsolicited this week. I know at least a couple of others in Portland who did, too. Others?

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John Horvick

@horvick

5 months

The NY Times has a new tool for comparing the rate of chronic absenteeism by school district from 2019 to 2023. I used the tool to create this chart for all the Oregon school districts in their database.

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John Horvick

@horvick

1 year

Folks seemed to enjoy these city maps and political party distributions. Here are some more, with a few that may have fell out of yesterday's thread. Portland 508,900 voters Dem 53% Rep 8% NAV 32% Other 7%

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

This week is the 18 year anniversary of Portland's 10-year plan to end homelessness. "Moving those chronically homeless into permanent housing where there are support services....will free up service money for everybody who sleeps on streets and in shelters." (1/4)

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John Horvick

@horvick

3 years

A contrast in how the two Yamhill County Democratic candidates for governor are talking on Twitter today about Covid. @CaseyKulla on the left. @NickKristof on the right.

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John Horvick

@horvick

4 years

Oregon presidential election results by county from 1920-2016.

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John Horvick

@horvick

3 years

Average age of Oregon's congressional delegation from 1981 - 2021.

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

Drazan was unable to make any inroads into Democratic margins in Multnomah and Washington counties nor improve on past Republican margins in Clackamas County.

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John Horvick

@horvick

6 months

A visual of Portland's political geography. Each dot is a voter. Blue=Democrat; Red=Republican; Yellow=NAV/other

John Horvick

@horvick

6 months

Updated voter counts for Portland's new city council districts are out. Here they are.

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

Currently, Multnomah County has the lowest turnout in Oregon. Washington and Clackamas counties near the bottom.

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John Horvick

@horvick

10 months

Portland.

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

Updated Portland traffic stop data is out today for Q4 2022. There were 2,588 traffic stops this last quarter, which is about one-fourth of pre-pandemic levels. Of those stopped, 42% were people of color.

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John Horvick

@horvick

4 years

With new national polling out today, a good moment to look at the state of the race compared to recent elections. Here are the Real Clear Politics averages at this point for 2004-2020. 2020 Biden +8.0 2016 Clinton +1.5 2012 Obama +1.6 2008 Obama +3.4 2004 Kerry +1.4

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

Oregon's monthly voter registration numbers are out. These are the party changes from last month. Total +259 Rep +2,357 IPO -95 Other -394 NAV -593 Dem -1,016

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

To those who follow me: Thanks! Elections are exciting and stressful. I hope I've made it more interesting and helped you learn. I know you've done that for me. To those running for office: thanks for stepping up and best wishes. Here's to great night for Oregon and beyond.

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

Betsy Johnson vote share: Counties won by Drazan: 10% Counties won by Kotek: 8%

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John Horvick

@horvick

3 months

In non-election news, the Portland Police released the 2024 Q1 traffic stop report. There were 6,369 traffic stops in Portland last quarter, the most since the pandemic. 41% of those stopped were drivers of color.

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John Horvick

@horvick

5 years

I'm often asked about Oregon's urban/rural "divide." It deserves attention. Over the next few days, I am going to share some ways that this divide is real, and other ways it is misunderstood. Starting with race today, then age, education, voting. Watch this thread if interested.

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

How election results were delivered to Portlanders a century ago. From the 1920 presidential election.

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John Horvick

@horvick

1 year

Letter to the editor published in @Oregonian on April 16, 1986 "Old Town is looking like a ghost town" "Blatant drug use in broad daylight" "First time I felt fearful in downtown Portland in the daytime" "I feel the city's current leadership is not attending to the problem."

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John Horvick

@horvick

4 years

The more I think about NYT article today the more disappointing it is. E.g., Gresham could be a great city to highlight in a national paper about how a demographically changing community manages public safety. Gresham has gone from 79% white non-Hispanic in 2000 to 62% now.

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John Horvick

@horvick

4 years

Title of the article is a "Chasm Grows Between Portland the the Rest of the State." According to the NYT the "rest of the state" is limited to Gresham--a city that boarders PDX, is racially diverse, Democratic and voted solidly Clinton--and Sandy, the next town over. Good grief

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John Horvick

@horvick

4 years

Some voter % to keep handy for the upcoming election in Oregon. From 2000-2016 -Eligible voter turnout has ranged from 62-71% -Registered voter turnout has ranged from 80-86% From 2000-2020 -The % of eligible voters registered to vote has increased from 75% to 92%

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John Horvick

@horvick

11 months

Here are updated population percentages in Oregon for those ages <18 and 65+. Very soon (if not already) seniors will surpass children in Oregon.

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John Horvick

@horvick

1 year

April 27, 2016, the Cruz-Fiorina campaign launches. Their campaign ended less than a week later. Cruz dropped out on May 3rd. One of oddest moments in modern presidential campaigns.

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John Horvick

@horvick

1 year

Oregon hasn't had a Secretary of State complete a full term since Kate Brown from 2009-2013. And now won't until at least 2025-2029.

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John Horvick

@horvick

3 years

80 years ago today the Willamette University football ( @wubearcats ) team was in Pearl Harbor during the Japanese attack. Upon returning to Oregon all 28 players joined the armed forces. A nice short history here.

Willamette University Pearl Harbor Football Team

null

www.youtube.com

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John Horvick

@horvick

4 years

History of presidential elections in Oregon updated with the 2020 results.

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

2022 gubernatorial candidate vote share in Multnomah County by precinct.

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

The geography of the Portland city council election. This is the current vote share for Rene Gonzalez by precinct. He did considerably better on both the west side and east of I-205.

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John Horvick

@horvick

4 years

Oregon's stay at home orders went in effect March 23rd, 113 days ago. The election is November 3, 112 days from now. So either the election will soon be here or it is impossibly far away.

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

@iquanyins Yes. Mail ballots now count so long as they are postmarked on or prior to election day.

MultCo elections director talks mailing in ballots with new postmark law

With Election Day fast approaching, Oregon voters have until Nov. 8 to fill out their ballots and drop them in a ballot drop box or the mailbox for their vote to count.

www.koin.com

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

With Oregon's new postmark rule, it's uncertain what percentage of ballots will be counted on election night. For some context, this is the percentage of ballots counted on election night and the days that followed in the 2022 Multnomah County primary.

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John Horvick

@horvick

4 years

Another finding from the @OPB / @DHMresearch survey is the generational divide in opinions about the protests in Portland. 60% of Portland voters approve of the protests vs 45% in the metro region. Regionally, 62% of voters ages 18-29 approve vs 67% of voters 65+ who disapprove.

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

Interesting data from UC Berkeley about downtown recoveries. This study examined 62 North American cities using cell phone activity, comparing spring of 2019 to spring of 2022. Portland rated 60th and recovered 41% of activity.

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John Horvick

@horvick

1 year

Here are the changes in the total number of registered voters in Oregon counties from the November 2020 election to August 2023. The biggest increases are in Marion (+8,812), Deschutes (+6,637), and Washington (+5,769). Multnomah lost the most (-10,891).

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

From The Oregonian survey, 57% of Portland voters support "forcing people living outside into whatever shelter is available."

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John Horvick

@horvick

4 years

Also says that "Portland and its surrounding area" make up 60% of the states population. No idea where this comes from. Multnomah, Clackamas and Washington counties are 43% of state's population. Adding Yamhill and Columbia only brings it up to 47%.

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John Horvick

@horvick

4 years

Precinct results for the Portland city council election between Dan Ryan and Loretta Smith. Ryan blue, Smith yellow.

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John Horvick

@horvick

1 year

What Oregonians say is the most important problem facing the state today (open-ended). By party. From @DHMresearch

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John Horvick

@horvick

8 months

Changes in violent crime comparing Q1-Q3 2023 to Q1 - Q3 2022. From the Major Cities Chiefs Association. Washington DC increased the most (+39%). San Antonio decreased the most (-21%). Portland declined by -14%.

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John Horvick

@horvick

4 years

As protests continue to spread across Oregon, a reminder that some of the state's most diverse areas are in rural communities.

Ryan Haas

@ryanjhaas

4 years

A Black Lives Matter protest in Hermiston, Oregon.

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John Horvick

@horvick

1 year

A somewhat random look at Oregon's political geography. Here are a handful of cities across the state with their political party distribution. Albany 42,900 voters Democrat 29% Rep 27% NAV 37% Other 7%

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John Horvick

@horvick

11 months

New population estimates are out today from the US Census American Community Survey. Here are the year-over-year population changes for Oregon counties (and Clark, WA) for which there are updated numbers.

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

Uff da. Morning Consult's updated 50 state governor approval ratings include that last number for Kate Brown. She did end with the lowest approval in that county, and by quite a lot.

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John Horvick

@horvick

1 year

. @DHMresearch recent survey of Oregonians asked about M110, including if voters would support or oppose bringing back criminal penalties for drug possession, while continuing to fund treatment with cannabis tax revenue. More on our website:

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John Horvick

@horvick

4 years

Portland City Council incumbents Ted Wheeler and Chloe Eudaly look headed to runoffs after getting less than 50% in the primary. How unusual is that? By my count, there have been 36 incumbents on primary ballots from 1980-2020 and 8 times they have failed to get 50%.

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

Next question in the KGW debate is about abortion. From an August DHM survey, 65% of Oregon voters identified as pro-choice.

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

Oregon's monthly voter registration numbers are out today. There is a significant increase in NAV registrants, only a small increase in Dems, and a net loss for Reps. Here is how this month's changes compare to Septembers in recent midterm election years.

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John Horvick

@horvick

3 years

State Covid vaccine requirements are broadly popular in Oregon. Healthcare 70% Public safety 68% Teachers 68% Service jobs 65% OHP members 63% Office workers 63% Students age 12+ 62% Higher support among Dems and NAV/other, but many Reps support requirements too.

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John Horvick

@horvick

4 years

It's a small difference, but Gresham is even more dense than Portland: Gresham: 110,165 pop / 23.64 sq miles = 4,660 per sq mile Portland: 652,575 pop / 145 sq miles = 4,5001 per sq mile

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John Horvick

@horvick

1 year

The number of yes votes for the 11 Oregon counties that have voted to consider moving Idaho's borders Sherman 430 Wheeler 472 Morrow 615 Grant 1,428* Lake 1,510 Harney1,583 Malheur 3,059 Baker 3,386 Jefferson 5,757 Union 7,435 Klamath 9,649

Oregon’s Rural-Urban Divide Sparks Talk of Secession (Published 2023)

Conservatives have approved a series of ballot measures in pursuit of an improbable plan to redraw the state’s border. We spent time in the region under dispute to see what the debate says about the...

www.nytimes.com

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John Horvick

@horvick

4 years

Also on the ballot in Oregon: Douglas, Union and Wallowa counties have measures about moving or relocating the Idaho border.

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John Horvick

@horvick

1 year

Looking at birth trends in Oregon and it's stark how quickly something is changing. These three charts are the number of women in Oregon who gave birth in the last 12 months from 2010 - 2021. First, women ages 15 - 29 vs. 30 - 50.

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John Horvick

@horvick

4 years

Look at what has happened in Washington County the last two decades. In 2000, Gore edged Bush by 2 points. In 2008, Obama won the county by 22 points. In 2020, Biden is winning by 36 points!

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 months

There are now final May primary results for Multnomah County. Here is the geography of the DA race county-wide. And I've also calculated* the results in the Portland city council districts.

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

Key # from The Oregonian survey election survey relating to homelessness and the gov race Half of Kotek backers think homelessness is mostly caused by a lack of affordable housing 75%+ Drazan & Johnson voters think homelessness is mostly caused by drug addiction/mental illness

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John Horvick

@horvick

3 years

Oregon is dry as we head into spring. 81% is abnormally dry, 44% is in severe drought, and 12% is facing extreme drought. The Klamath Basin is particularly is dry. And, yet, Oregon is in better shape than much of the west.

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John Horvick

@horvick

4 years

NY Times now has precinct maps for the 2020 presidential election with comparisons to 2016. Here is Oregon. 2020 on left. Changes from 2016 on right.

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John Horvick

@horvick

3 months

Early precinct map of the Multnomah County DA race

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

Oregon turnout update: Nov 8. AM Registered Today 46% Avg today 70% Avg previous day 50% Vote share (diff from 2018) Dem 41% (-1) Rep 32% (+2) NAV 27% (-1) Turnout % as of today Dem 56.2% Rep 60.4% NAV/other 30.0% Best to compare the previous day. These will go up!

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John Horvick

@horvick

6 months

Updated voter counts for Portland's new city council districts are out. Here they are.

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John Horvick

@horvick

1 year

More maps. Here are Oregon's 36 counties in alphabetical order with total voters, party share, and geographic distribution. Baker County 13,038 voters Dem 15% Rep 45% NAV 33% Other 7%

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John Horvick

@horvick

4 years

100 days until general election ballots are mailed to voters in Oregon.

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John Horvick

@horvick

5 months

The Census released new population estimates today. Here are the 2022 to 2023 population changes among Oregon counties.

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

About a year ago that Portland changed its traffic stop policy. I was curious to check in on the trends. Left: total traffic stops from Q1 2018 to Q1 2022 Right: percentage of stops with drivers of color

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John Horvick

@horvick

4 years

Yes it's early...but 2022 could be a pivotal year in Oregon politics. An open governor seat, likely an additional congressional seat, and senate election. Plus an aging delegation, many with long tenures. (1/2)

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John Horvick

@horvick

3 years

With school starting soon, here are Oregon Covid vaccine % by county for children ages 12-17. Rates are highest in Benton (70%) and Multnomah (69%) and lowest in Grant (17%) and Lake (13%).

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John Horvick

@horvick

4 years

The final numbers are not in yet, but it looks like this will be the first election in Oregon where the non-affiliated+other party vote share is greater than the Republican vote share.

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John Horvick

@horvick

6 years

I'm keeping tabs on daily voter turnout in Oregon. Prior to OR's automatic voter registration, about 72-73% of eligible voters were registered. Now it's about 91%. To year-to-year comparisons, it's necessary to look at the turnout % for both. I'll be updating here. (1/N)

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John Horvick

@horvick

4 years

Heads up: Next week @DHMresearch will release a statewide survey that asks Oregonians--from all parts of the state--what they think about the protests in Portland. Keep an eye out for it.

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John Horvick

@horvick

1 year

Continuing these threads. Here are maps and political party distributions of Oregon's six US congressional districts. CD 1 480,000 voters Dem 40% Rep 17% NAV 36% Other 6%

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

More coverage of The Oregonian's metro area survey by @PDXzane . Most voters think the 2020 protests did more harm than good to race relations, the Black community, public safety, the Portland police, and Portland's reputation.

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John Horvick

@horvick

10 months

The US Census has new data out today on state-to-state migration in 2022. Here is where former Oregonians moved to and where new Oregonians moved from. Total outflow was 157,729, inflow 128,359, for a loss of -29,370. This does not include international migration.

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John Horvick

@horvick

6 years

In another thread, I'm keeping track of daily turnout in Oregon. One notable thing so far is that Dem turnout is a 15.7% vs 14.8% for Rep. Long way to go, but Dem turnout hasn't exceeded Rep in a midterm since at least 1966, which is far back as my records go.

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

@cmpnwtr @petebray Here is current and past voter registration

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John Horvick

@horvick

11 months

Oregon's drought conditions at this point in the year from 2000 - current.

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

Oregon demographic, geographic, and election numbers. RACE These are the percentage of people of color by county. In the bar chart, blue=counties that voted for Kotek and red=counties that went for Drazan. The counties with the highest % are rural and tended to vote Drazan (1/4)

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John Horvick

@horvick

4 years

Multnomah County turnout: Oct 27, AM. Votes cast: 290,331 Turnout: 51% 2016 votes cast: 153,474 2016 turnout: 30% Avg. turnout: 31%

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John Horvick

@horvick

3 years

The new @DHMresearch looked at the governor's race with a particular focus on @senbetsyjohnson . In a generic ballot test among just Dem and Rep, the Dem leads by 9 points. When Johnson is added--without any description of her--she is in third at 11%. (1)

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John Horvick

@horvick

1 year

Morning Consult has updates to their approval ratings for all 50 governors. TIna Kotek starts her term with the lowest approval rating in the US, at 42% BUT that's somewhat driven by a relatively high percent of don't know responses, as she does not have the highest disapproval.

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John Horvick

@horvick

4 years

Multnomah County turnout. Oct 24, AM. Turnout: 42% Votes cast: 237,151

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John Horvick

@horvick

4 years

New report out today on demographic change and the electorate. It estimates the % of voters of color in Oregon will increase from 15% in 2020 to 23% in 2036. And in the US from 33% to 41%. Lots of great data. Full report here.

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John Horvick

@horvick

4 years

Via MultCo elections there are an estimated 13,299 ballots returned in the county as of this morning. On the equivalent day in in 2016 (Oct 21) there were 3,232 ballots returned.

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

In the last 50 years, there have been 10 incumbent Portland city council members who received <50% in the primary. Of these: -4 went on to win in the general -3 lost in the general -2 were eliminated in the primary -And Commissioner Hardesty is on the ballot now

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

This suggests that Johnson is not disproportionately "taking" voters from Kotek. Drazan has consistently had a 1-3 point lead in polling. If Johnson was "taking" from Kotek, you'd expect Kotek's numbers to rise as Johnson falls.

Julia Shumway

@JMShumway

2 years

Salem-based Nelson Research just released a poll showing @senbetsyjohnson 's support cratering – down to 5.4% among Oregonians who have already voted or are likely voters. Poll shows @ChristineDrazan with 43.5% and @TinaKotek with 41.1%, within the margin of error. #orpol #orgov

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

Here is another way to see Oregon's growing urban/rural divide. This is the Democratic vote share in gubernatorial elections comparing the three-county Portland metro to the rest of the state. From 1958-2022.

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John Horvick

@horvick

3 years

The day after elections and heading into 2022, a reminder that things change. Sometimes quickly.

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John Horvick

@horvick

4 years

Congratulations, Baker City.

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John Horvick

@horvick

1 year

Some public opinion context to the Oregon Republican walkout in the Senate. From @DHMresearch latest survey, 80% of Republican voters support making it illegal for health care professional to provide minors medical care for a transition.

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

Christine Drazan currently sits at 65,032 total votes. This will increase some, but it will be the fewest votes for the Republican primary winner since 1938.

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

Key numbers from The Oregonian poll on the election for governor. -Kotek is winning 60% of Dems, while Drazan is holding 71% of Reps. -NAVs are leaning more toward Drazan than Kotek. -Johnson doing slightly better among Dems than Reps.

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John Horvick

@horvick

4 years

How fast should we expect ballots to be counted in Oregon on election night? Here are the % of ballots counted in Multnomah County the hours and days after the deadline in 2016. About 73% at 8:00 on election night, 90% by the next morning, 96% by the next afternoon.

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

Clackamas County makes up is 10% voters in Oregon and 32% of the 5th District.

Shane Dixon Kavanaugh

@shanedkavanaugh

2 years

Clackamas County elections strikes again: “Hall’s decision to update tallies less frequently than other counties could delay results of key races including the three-way race for governor & the nationally watched CD 5 race.”

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

The geography of Oregon gubernatorial elections over the years.

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

Still a few votes to count, but Oregon turnout is down this election. Right now there are ~56,000 fewer votes in 2022 than in 2018.

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John Horvick

@horvick

2 years

From Gallup's recent survey: Which party can do a better job of handling the county's most important problem? Republican 48% (+11) Democrat 37% Previous midterms 2018 D +1 2014 R +4 2010 R +2 2006 D +15 2002 R +2

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