How Germany went “green” in 4 easy steps
1. Shut down clean nuclear
2. Move to unreliable wind/solar
2. Become reliant on Russian natural gas
3. Fire up dirty coal again
Think the Emergencies Act is bad?
Now imagine a CBDC
No act needed. No bank compliance needed.
Just a flip of a switch, as the central bank directly controls the transactions and balances of every account in the nation.
CBDC is a tyrant's wet dream.
Here’s what the mainstream doesn't want you to know about todays "blowout" jobs report
There are actually 2 different jobs reports, and they tell very different stories about the economy. 🧵👇🏼
The first one is the one that is making all the headlines: 336,000 new jobs added.
The Reverse Repo facility at the Fed dropped to $1.57 trillion
What does this mean for markets?
1. The government is getting deeper into debt by spending more while taxes are dropping, and they have to borrow the difference. Normally they borrow from China, Japan, and the Fed
The Reverse Repo facility has seen $1 trillion drain out in just the last 6 months
What happens when it runs out?
Its important to remember what this account is for, and where this money came from in the first place 🧵👇🏼
When all the money printing started in 2020, this
Today, the US government tried to borrow a bunch of money. It didn’t go well
In order to get enough lenders, they had to offer a much higher interest rate than originally planned
While this was much weaker treasury demand than expected, it’s nothing compared to what we will
Only $683 Billion left in the Fed's Reverse Repo facility
One year ago it topped at $2.5 trillion
Right now, all this cash is going into t bills (short term government debt)
If everything stays the same (treasury borrowing amounts, treasury bill issuance, Fed interest rates,
The 20 year US Treasury auction just saw a record-sized tail
Here's what that means, and why it matters. Explained simply 👇🏼
When the government needs to borrow, they hold an auction
They say "we want to borrow x amount at x interest rate"
Individuals can say "OK" or "no
The reason that cars use gasoline as fuel may surprise you
Henry Ford's vision was a world of automobiles fueled by farm alcohol
At the same time, Rockefeller was revolutionizing global energy with oil
In order to refine the oil, a WASTE byproduct was created in the process:
When the income tax started in 1913, they promised it was only for the richest
Little did the people know, that was a lie
When the IRS hired 87,000 agents in 2022, they promised they wouldn’t come after the middle class
Little did the people know…
Hypothetical:
Your car payment is $300/mo. You can easily afford it.
You paid $30k for the car but could sell it for $40k
But if you sold it you would have to downgrade AND the new one would cost $700/mo which you can’t afford
Nobody would take that trade
This is housing
I've studied money, investing, and economics for the last ten years.
Here are 12 things I teach my kids about financial success:
1. You can't just save your way to wealth, and you can outspend any income
If you only make $30k per year, it's not possible to save enough to
Toyota is releasing a $10k truck
And it's illegal in the US
This is the result of government sanctioned monopolies, bailouts, subsidies, regulatory capture, and tariffs protecting large corporate interests
All at the cost of the individual
What a lucky coincidence for the military industrial complex
Right after the flow of money for Ukraine shuts off, the floodgates of money for Israel open wide
This whole “blackrock owns the world” narrative is getting out of hand
Blackrock owns nothing
It’s you. You’re the owner. They simply take your money and put it where you want it.
If you don’t want blackrock investing your money for you, then stop giving it to them.
It's possible the next round of QE will not show up on the Fed's balance sheet
Instead, it could be carried out by banks themselves
Here's how a change to banks leverage rules could bail out the US government 🧵👇🏼
The US Government currently owes $34 trillion - not including
The yield curve has been signaling a recession for 212 days straight now
This is a record
Historically, the longer it takes for the recession to start after the inversion, the more severe the recession is
Ok a few important notes about this thread:
I am obviously painting with broad brushstrokes here. In order to give a nuanced explanation of every mechanism described, you would fill a book. I prefer to explain things simply so that everyone can understand generally what is
One of the WORST financial mistakes I see upper-middle class people making right now is paying off their mortgage early
2.5% fixed rate is 30 years of FREE money
You can get 5% RISK FREE in a savings account, money market, or Tbills
Let your extra money compound at 5% and
I finally read Broken Money by
@LynAldenContact
Fantastic. Highly recommend.
I read about a hundred books per year. It’s rare I come across a great book I love. This is definitely one to add to your list for 2024.
Great job Lyn 👍🏼
The money supply is shrinking. So what?
Well, the last time it did this was the Great Depression
However, it's important to note that this is a YoY change
Looking closer, the money supply change has actually flatlined and is almost unchanged from May-Dec this year
The
Gold popped through all time highs all the way up to $2,150 last night
Then the selloff hit hard, driving it back down below prior highs to $2,025
But why?
This price action is actually completely normal. Whenever you see a breakout to all time highs, you almost always see
They say to own nothing. Pay more in taxes. Shut up and defer to the experts.
no thanks
Own as much as possible. Pay less in taxes. Speak the truth loudly and fuck the ivory-tower elites.
The Fed is being forced to choose between the dollar and the economy
Last time (the 70's) they had to make this choice, they chose the dollar
What will they choose this time?
I've been in Bora Bora for the last week celebrating my anniversary with my wife. Seems like I missed a bit 🤣
- GME kitty is back
- Trump is now a felon
- FDIC warning tons of banks are about to fail
- Fauci lied about everything (shocker)
- Mexico slaughtered all their
The US sovereign debt crisis is beginning
- Interest payments on the national debt are now $928 billion
- Nearly half of the national debt will be replaced with higher interest rates in next 2 years
Only political suicide by everyone in power can stop this now
When they started the income tax in 1913, it was only a 1% tax on the top 1% of income earners
Look how that turned out
Today, they propose an unrealized gains tax (wealth tax) only on people worth $100m or more
How do you think that will turn out?
When money printing causes inflation, start price controls
When price controls cause shortages, start rationing
When rationing causes riots, start martial law
Yesterday‘s FOMC meeting revealed the Fed is making massive changes to the way it views monetary policy, and nobody is talking about it
While Fed members expect interest rates to get cut next year, the Fed will continue QT
Normally, the Fed uses its two monetary policy tools
The SOFR spiked to a record high yesterday
Is the financial system beginning to crack?
What this means, and why it’s a big deal 👇🏼
This is an overnight lending rate and represents excess liquidity - or the lack of it
If rates spike, it’s because everyone needs cash and few
The Fed finally updated their chart to reflect interest payments on the national debt is now over $1 trillion
It will be be about $1.2 trillion in one year
@theficouple
A family gets out a piece of paper and hangs it on their fridge.
The paper is titled “family money board”. At the top of the paper it says “Total Family Bucks: 40”
It has 4 columns, one for every family member. At the top of each column, it shows each family member has 10
I buy silver every single day (allocated, segregated)
Once my stack gets too big for comfort, I take delivery
Why?
- It's undervalued / on sale
- Doing my part to drain the vaults
- Taking advantage of volatility by DCA
When I quit my job and started my business, everyone around me thought I was crazy
Sacrificed $250k+ with wife and kids
All to focus on building an audience-based business that produced $0 in the beginning
Family members kept offering ideas of jobs I could work on the side
Countless people have been sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the next housing crash so that they don't buy at the top
Here's why I don't think that is going to happen:
1. 42% of US homeowners have no mortgage. These people cannot be forced to sell
2. Current mortgage
Friendly reminder that carbon-neutral gasoline can be manufactured with nuclear energy by sucking carbon out of the air
Nuclear solves the global energy problem so well that climate clowns reject it for fear of losing power
Nvidia $NVDA could be involved in massive market manipulation
Big money insiders pumping the numbers to unload on unsuspecting retail
I spoke with
@JG_Nuke
about this suspicious trail of evidence, episode live now
It looks like a major breakdown in bonds is imminent
This will send rates surging higher
The Fed’s tightening so far is nothing compared to the tightening the market is about to hit the economy with
Runaway train meet unbreakable wall
You’re too stupid for your own good
If you and others are able to live freely, make your own choices, associate with others voluntarily, and decide for yourself what happens to you and what you own, you’ll suffer.
In fact, the decisions you make will be so dumb, they’ll even
The second wave of bank failures has begun
Citizens Bank was placed into FDIC receivership on November 3rd
This was the 6th bank failure this year
As interest rates stay high or move higher, any bank is at risk of failure if depositors simply decide to withdraw their money
Larry Summers is dead wrong that Biden's plan would be inflationary. The economy has huge unused capacity. 10 million are jobless. Millions more have dropped out of the job market altogether. Inflation is nowhere in sight. If anything, Biden's plan is too small.
A government only has 3 sources of income:
1. Taking it involuntarily from some (taxes)
2. Taking it voluntarily from some (borrowing)
3. Taking it involuntarily from all (inflation)
If Elizabeth Warren saved her entire yearly salary and never spent a dime it would take her 235 years to accumulate $67 Million. So my question is, where did her money come from? 🤨
When a P/L is involved, there is an incentive to make things as simple as possible.
When a P/L is not involved, the incentive is to make things as complicated as possible.
-
@nntaleb
Thousands of PhD's on staff and they cannot read the economy and inflation is a mystery. Wow.
Fed's Barkin: Conflicting signals make U.S. economy hard to read
Tick tock...
Fed's reverse repo facility hits new low of $557 billion
(money exiting this facility goes into Tbills for higher yield. When this is empty, less demand for bills, rates go higher)
If a person's job is to fix a problem, their job ends when the problem is solved
Since that person's job depends on the problem existing, the built-in incentive is to never solve the problem
The unwind of the Yen carry trade is not a black swan
It's a grey rhino
Black swan: something widely believed to be impossible because it hasn't happened before.
Grey rhino: something that has been observed to cause harm many times, but the risk this time is ignored because
By the end of the first week of my last job, I knew I was going to quit.
I was able to join the team because someone (we'll call him Steve) had retired, which freed up room in the budget to hire me
Steve was 65ish, had been married about 30 years, and had worked there his
This is so odd
- No letterhead
- Weird signature
- He hasn't been seen or heard in days
- Sitting President pulling out of the race with a SINGLE TWEET
- Unconfirmed rumors of severe medical emergency or even death
What is going on
The government lied to you
You were not paying the social security tax into a fund that would be there for you when you retire
You were paying for existing retirees
The fund is broke and will be empty in 10 years
Should they pay you less? Or take even more from others?
🚨Unusual insider trade alert
The Walton family just sold $4.5 billion worth of Walmart $WMT
Each sibling (Jim, Alice, and Rob) sold $1.5 billion, the trades were reported after market close Friday - most likely to avoid media coverage
What don't they want us to know?
The difference between trusting the science and believing in God
One is a religion that commands its followers to trust everything its leaders say about what is true and how to live, no matter the lack of evidence or even evidence to the contrary
The other is believing in God
The Depression of 1920 is forgotten history
Before 1929, it was called The Great Depression because it was the worst one America had ever seen
Ignored by economists because it exposes the fallacies in their theories about the causes and cures for recessions/depressions
-
When Jesus wanted to get his point across to the people who mattered, he spoke in parables. This was so that those in power wouldn’t understand what he was saying, but his target audience would.
If he had spoken plainly, he would have almost certainly been executed much sooner.
Housing is in a bubble… Compared to what?
Priced in dollars, almost everything looks like a bubble. Which means maybe it’s not a bubble you’re seeing, but a devaluation of a currency.