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@gmnay_

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markets & defi | @ThanefieldCap

Joined July 2022
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
@gmnay_
Nay
1 year
1/ Who the heck is DWF Labs? In the last couple of months, they have been everywhere, throwing ridiculous checks at everyone from legit projects to dead ones. I dug a bit into on-chain data and other resources, and it doesn't look good.
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@gmnay_
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1 year
1/ $ADA, $SOL, and $MATIC should be facing a much-anticipated selloff from Celsius and Robinhood this week. I've done some on-chain research and estimated the amount to be sold & some potential implications. I'm also sharing wallet details so you can track coin movements.
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@gmnay_
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1 year
1/17 DeFi tokens that are showing signs of a turnaround, part two - $SNX. The biggest opportunity in DeFi 🧵
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@gmnay_
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1 year
1/9 Lately, there've been signs of a potential bottom in the 3-year-long DeFi bear market. Starting with $MKR, I'm sharing the tokens I'm buying. I believe $MKR will end up being one of the most obvious capitulations in hindsight. A thread 🧵
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@gmnay_
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1 year
Jump has begun transferring $MATIC to B2C2, Cumberland, and Wintermute, who then deposit it into Coinbase and Binance. $12.5m worth of MATIC remains in Jump's wallet
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@gmnay_
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11 months
A few people asked why I think $SOL is a short: First of all, why SOL is up 75% in one month, and 55% in the past 12 days, outperforming all big caps? Given that FTX estate's 18M liquid SOL (4.3% of the float or $580m) and 43m locked (7.5% of the total supply or $1.4b) are on
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@gmnay_
Nay
11 months
short SOL here ($32.5) is about the best trade I've seen in a while
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@gmnay_
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2 years
1/ On GMX model/risks. As you probably know, it's an oracle-based, zero-slippage DEX. Its design aims to attract LPs and one particular group of traders who sponsor the party. How sustainable is it, and why it works?
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@gmnay_
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1 year
Actually, THE largest Celsius holding as a % of mcap, which is missing from all spreadsheets, is $SNX. Celsius holds 2.8m $SNX liquid in their wallets and 1.7m $SNX is escrowed, totaling >1.5% of mcap.
@CoinDesk
CoinDesk
1 year
. @CelsiusNetwork can start converting altcoins starting tomorrow, as the bankrupt crypto lender prepares for a BTC and ETH-based creditor distribution, a New York judge said. @jackschickler reports
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@gmnay_
Nay
1 year
SNX/GMX - Synthetix is now making more volume than GMX; trending higher/GMX trending lower - 95% of revenues go to $SNX holders vs 30% $GMX - GLP yield ATL, supply ATH (coping) - @CryptoHayes will have fun exiting, DWF is out - $SNX 770m FDV, $GMX 851m - slightly positive carry
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@gmnay_
Nay
1 year
Since mid-December, GLP has lost >75% of its cum. trading gains as the uptrend began. Synthetix released Perps v2 which went from nearly zero volume to comparable to GMX, with SNX LPs just enjoying fees instead of gambling. Yet SNX/GMX went virtually nowhere 🤔
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@gmnay_
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1 year
My $OP thesis. Expressed as an OP/ARB trade. $ARB is valued at 1.67x OP at the current prices. TLDR: I believe the market hasn't yet adjusted the $OP vs $ARB pricing, just like it lagged with $SNX vs $GMX. While the current valuation may mirror the state of the Optimism/Arbitrum
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@gmnay_
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8 months
Last month's rotations: modular/rollups -> binance launchpads -> AI; new shiny coins with billion-dollar valuations/low float do well; gamefi is idionsycratic – some coins perform well while others don't; left curve coins (meme) and right curve coins (DeFi) are dead
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@gmnay_
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11 months
@WazzCrypto why to put any effort if you can just say it's paradigm backed and give some to twitter influencers and it will work perfectly fine?
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@gmnay_
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9 months
Last cycle @synthetix_io was at the forefront of the DeFi summer pioneering yield farming. This cycle it's at the forefront of AA revolution allowing everyone to become a degen without having a metamask (1000x the TAM). Name any other DeFi project with such a track record
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@gmnay_
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1 year
11/ Now, who is the official face of DWF, Andrei Grachev? He is saying DWF is a TradFi MM since 2016 and they've made 100s of millions doing that lol. He's been publicly accused of running various crypto scams since 2018. They include ICOs that raised money and never launched...
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@gmnay_
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1 year
A few anons reached out after my DWF thread and shared some info. Here is a typical agreement that confirms points from the thread. You just need to be listed on one of the major CEXes and have 100k daily volume and you're good to go. All is crystal clear
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@gmnay_
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1 year
8/ I guess one explanation is that they sell tokens on behalf of teams for not less than $x and send money upfront, pocketing delta. Many deals have 10-20% discounts, but some have none. But then still why is it being sold as a "strategic partnership" and investments?
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@gmnay_
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2 years
$SNX has started picking up the deriv DEX narrative. It has a few major catalysts in the pipeline: - perps v2 - synthetix v3 - integrations All should improve fees for $SNX stakers substantially. @kwenta_io as a legit $GMX competitor on @optimismFND sounds really good to me.
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@gmnay_
Nay
1 year
14/ I would be happy if I am missing smth and there is a reasonable explanation for that. But for now, it all looks extremely sketchy. Tokens that they're holding onchain are mostly on this wallet, $12m in total:
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@gmnay_
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1 year
2/ On this screenshot are some of the transactions that I found onchain. And there is much more. Almost in every case the number of tokens in/stables out matches by time & dollar amount, meaning these are not loans, hence not standard MM deals. $65m confirmed.
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@gmnay_
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6 months
After two years of waiting, the proposal to enable transferability for $SAFE is now live and set to be implemented on April 23rd. As a core piece of Ethereum and EVM infrastructure, Safe is certainly worth paying attention to. Here's why I'm bullish on $SAFE and $GNO. Safe -
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@gmnay_
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1 year
8/ The key is to watch what Jump does right after the deadline. If coins don't end up on CEXes, is likely we'll see a rally. $SOL seems to be the cleanest play as no overhead from Celsius. Here is the list of wallets you should watch:
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@gmnay_
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1 year
7/ Wtf is going on here? The firm literally no one knew 6 months ago investing >$200m (I think it's 2x larger than the last Defiance fund?) in only liquid tokens, and deposits most of it on exchanges. Coindesk writes puff pieces.
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@gmnay_
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1 year
1/5 Binance is pulling a weird move for the $ARKM listing tomorrow – they're capping the transaction price for the first five minutes at 10x the public sale price. Quick thoughts & some data on how to play it.
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@gmnay_
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1 year
8/ I guess one explanation is that they sell tokens on behalf of teams for not less than $x and send money upfront, pocketing delta. Many deals have 10-20% discounts, but some have none. But then still why is it being sold as a "strategic partnership" and investments?
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@gmnay_
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9 months
1/10 There's a token that I believe has a huge upside and is overlooked by the market. It has strong fundamentals, a compelling narrative, a low valuation, and most importantly, a unique flow dynamic. $INDEX short 🧵
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@gmnay_
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1 year
1/6 YTD performance by sectors. Even with crazy January pumps only three sectors – Chinese coins and AI (narrative plays) and Perps – outperformed a 50% BTC/50% ETH portfolio.
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@gmnay_
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1 year
@DefiSquared Great finding man. Such a scam
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@gmnay_
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8 months
Happy to share that I’ve joined @ThanefieldCap as a research analyst! Super excited to be working alongside @resonancethis , @karl_0x , and the rest of the team!
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@gmnay_
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11 months
They won���t trap me. Just kidding, I was stopped out from my perp position during the night, but I still have puts. Nothing wrong with being wrong, although the way I tweeted it wasn’t smart. Lesson learned
@gmnay_
Nay
11 months
A few people asked why I think $SOL is a short: First of all, why SOL is up 75% in one month, and 55% in the past 12 days, outperforming all big caps? Given that FTX estate's 18M liquid SOL (4.3% of the float or $580m) and 43m locked (7.5% of the total supply or $1.4b) are on
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@gmnay_
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1 year
4/ DWF is active in the Korean market. Some Korean projects voluntarily disclose new investments on Xangle. 11 projects disclosed since November, most without the $ amount. DWF invested $5m into a $6m mcap APM. BIOT disclosure doesn't match onchain data.
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@gmnay_
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1 year
The same goes for $SOL. Jump dispatched the second batch immediately after the deadline. There's still $15.5m left in the wallet
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@gmnay_
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11 months
short SOL here ($32.5) is about the best trade I've seen in a while
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@gmnay_
Nay
1 year
9/ Regarding post-investment price action, tokens have generally underperformed. The last 4 tokens on the list – SSV, SNX, TIME, FLOKI, have lost between 10% and 40% since the 1st DWF's tx on exchanges (sorry for the charts, can't do any better atm). Some are down 90%+
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@gmnay_
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1 year
3/ The pattern for all their deals is: they either buy in many transactions of 50-100k stables once a day or so or in larger transactions of up to $5m per tx. The second leg is always the same though – they deposit it all (or almost all) on CEXes.
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@gmnay_
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1 year
@Priestmaux Supposedly buying at a discount and selling at a better price. I am pretty sure making money is not their only objective though
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@gmnay_
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1 year
On March 22nd, SEC brought charges against @justinsuntron in a similar lawsuit. I've done a small research on how TRX has traded since. 🧵
@tier10k
db
1 year
[DB] SEC Sues Binance and CEO Zhao of Breaking US Securities Rules: Bloomberg
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@gmnay_
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1 year
@HsakaTrades My favorite
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@gmnay_
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1 year
4/ In the last 3 months, Maker has been smashing it in terms of revenues. By reducing USDC on its book from over 50% to a mere 9% and replacing it with yield-generating RWA, Maker has managed to quadruple its earnings. $MKR is currently trading at 9.2x earnings.
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@gmnay_
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1 year
@thiccythot_ Agree but you also gotta consider that they started originating loans at the worst possible time right before the hiking cycle. DXY went from 90 to 110+ in like a year, and all their borrowers are in EMs effectively being short USD. Maybe not a last default on their book
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@gmnay_
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1 year
10/ As far as I know, $SNX is the most productive DeFi blue-chip. $SNX stakers capture 100% of trading fees and inflation of $SNX as compensation for taking on the risk of being the counterparty, which has significantly reduced with the shift to perps v2.
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@gmnay_
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1 year
3/ Hence, Jump, who manages crypto for RH, will have to liquidate all remaining holdings immediately after 6:59 PM ET on June 27th. The good news is that users have withdrawn roughly half of RH's holdings over the last two weeks.
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@gmnay_
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1 year
3/ Meanwhile, Rune, already the largest holder, is buying even more $MKR. He might be the only founder in crypto who's ever purchased their own token. As a de facto decision-maker, at least his decisions align with holders, and he's clearly committed
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@gmnay_
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1 year
Seriously, Coindesk and The Block don't even write articles about it anymore
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@Cointelegraph
Cointelegraph
1 year
DWF Labs invests over $60 million in EOS Network to accelerate growth and adoption of blockchain-based games and apps.
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@gmnay_
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10 months
"pyth is a sol beta play" pyth:
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@gmnay_
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1 year
7/ Are these selloffs priced in? Certainly to some extent. $ADA, $SOL, and $MATIC have been underperforming the market and its peers since the announcement of delisting.
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@gmnay_
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1 year
There is fraudulent market manipulation on $YGG, Justin Sun is using Huobi users' assets for his DeFi positions, running a $stUSDT scam and $tUSD, Adam writes the 5th thread on $USDT depeg, DoJ is concerned about the run on Binance should they bring fraud charges
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@gmnay_
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1 year
2/ The sell-off from RH and Celsius are of different types. Celsius, after July 1st, has flexibility. It's likely to take several months. RH has set the deadline for June 27th, after which coins "will be sold at market value" and the proceeds will be credited to users' accounts
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@gmnay_
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1 year
Celsius just started sending alts to FalconX
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@gmnay_
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8 months
As a Chinese investor, which assets would you choose to store your wealth in?
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@gmnay_
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1 year
4/ A day before the transfers close, we're left with: ~ $18m of $MATIC ~ $26m of $SOL - I wasn't able to locate the ADA wallets but ~$30m is a safe estimate. Not too bad. These numbers are significantly lower than the estimates circulating on Twitter.
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@gmnay_
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2 years
Slowly but surely 🫡 Can't own enough $SNX
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@gmnay_
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1 year
8/ In the current version of Synthetix, $SNX stakers ARE the liquidity providers. Thus, Synthetix only has to balance between two stakeholders and directs 100% of revenue to $SNX stakers. This is in contrast to $GMX's 30% and $DYDX's 0%.
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@gmnay_
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1 year
5/ There are also some deals that they reported but I couldn't match them onchain. Many of them are high-profile deals. The weird thing about those is that in many cases no on-chain activity would correspond to anything close to reported sizes, which is not the case for others.
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@gmnay_
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5 months
$SAFE is at $2billion FDV, which is less than any of your fugazzi Binance launchpad projects that literally no one even bothers to read what they do at this point
@gmnay_
Nay
6 months
After two years of waiting, the proposal to enable transferability for $SAFE is now live and set to be implemented on April 23rd. As a core piece of Ethereum and EVM infrastructure, Safe is certainly worth paying attention to. Here's why I'm bullish on $SAFE and $GNO. Safe -
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@gmnay_
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6 months
1/3 TWAPed into $BICO – catalysts, unlocks, onchain activity, market structure: The AA narrative has been gaining some mindshare lately, and $BICO is the only liquid play. $SAFE launch on April 23rd can be a catalyst for BICO, similar to how $W was for $SYN h/t @_kaitoai
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@gmnay_
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6 months
Maybe Starknet's 8 users is a meme, but 7 daily transactions on the STRK official bridge and 41 on the Starknet's ETH official bridge are not
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@gmnay_
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1 year
6/ $65m confirmed onchain and >$150m is reported, lots of stuff on top of that is not reported. If you start digging, you'll see a bunch of other tokens with the same patterns go through their wallets. We're talking $hundreds of millions here. Mostly in the last 6 months.
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@gmnay_
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1 year
it's so over for matic
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@gmnay_
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1 year
2/ The last two US-based VCs have capitulated. Paradigm unloaded their bags 4 months ago, and a16z is in the process of liquidating right now. Interestingly, they're even using the same desk to execute. Total disbelief. Polychain and Dragonfly offloaded all their $MKR years ago
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@gmnay_
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1 year
This week gives us the first clean COT read after Blackrock's Bitcoin ETF application. Institutions flipped from being long last week to a record short. Small speculators (aka the worst traders) are at a record long 🫡
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@gmnay_
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1 year
A little perspective These are 15 coins that, based solely on FDV, would've made it into the S&P 500. Some scream at you: "Can we have your exit liquidity 👉👈"
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@gmnay_
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1 year
7/ Everyone was hating on Maker for their stupid burn mechanism. Well, now it's about to get smart. They'll periodically buy MKR from the market, pair it with DAI, and LP.
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@gmnay_
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5 months
We've just published a proposal on the @GnosisDAO governance forum to conduct a $30 million buyback program!
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@gmnay_
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2 years
@NoodleofBinance So, 1) Issue USD-backed HKD 2) Issue HKD-backed onchain HKD 3) Use it as collateral to mint USD-pegged stables 4) max bid shitcoins Asians will love it.
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@gmnay_
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2 years
The first part is a case study on the Dot-com bubble. The second will cover the ICO mania of 2017-2018 and the DeFi/NFT bubble of 2020-2021. The third will focus on building the framework to spot early and navigate future cycles. Give it a read!
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@gmnay_
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1 year
Mich: "Should've asked around and not sold to DWF". Oh no! Does it mean the handshake agreement was violated? too bad!
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@gmnay_
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1 year
Funny enough this tweet (now deleted) by Andrei was a reaction to DWF itself depositing tokens to Binance again 🙃
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@gmnay_
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10 months
Vertex is interesting - they're running a @dYdX playbook, which is the most successful crypto venture of the last few years by some standards. They also have the largest (to the best of my knowledge) MM on dydx onboard, which is good.
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@gmnay_
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1 year
gm! Been prepping weekly notes on covering last week's events, tradfi, majors, alts, sectors, stables, positioning, and things to watch for the week ahead. Thought it might be useful for someone else. If you have any feedback lmk!
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@gmnay_
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1 year
2/ Firstly, Synthetix is involved in the most profitable businesses in crypto – perps. It caters to a prime use case in crypto: leveraged betting on asset prices. Binance futures consistently doing >$1tn in monthly volume. With 4 bps capture, it f $400m of monthly revs.
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@gmnay_
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1 year
1/5 I was curious about how five market makers would boost the liquidity in $WLD compared to something with zero market makers like $PEPE. So, I plotted the slippage distribution for a $100k order in the first trading hour, with 100 ms observation intervals on Binance.
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@gmnay_
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1 year
Can’t mention names but some crypto custodians convinced pensions funds to deploy >$80bil into HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inu. The institutions are here already.
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@gmnay_
Nay
1 year
5/ The main question is how Jump will proceed. Options include selling it OTC, taking it onto their books & hedging on perps, depositing to CEXes, or a combination thereof. Whatever they do, it should be apparent from examining the OI and on-chain movements.
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@gmnay_
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1 year
For those who don't see any problem, here is how it works: 1. They announce an investment 2. Uninformed retail thinks it's bullish (as it's supposed to be) 3. DWF sells to retail who is left holding the bag At the very least it's unethical
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@gmnay_
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1 year
6/ Now to Celsius. They only hold $2.5m worth of $SOL, ~$26m of $ADA, and according to their filings at the end of April, $60m worth of $MATIC. However, I could only locate ~$14m of it. There are other coins in the Celsius portfolio that could be more interesting for shorts
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@gmnay_
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1 year
Funny enough this tweet (now deleted) by Andrei was a reaction to DWF itself depositing tokens to Binance again 🙃
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@gmnay_
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1 year
After seven green candles in a row and a 23% gain, I just went completely flat on perps - Reflexivity driven by gamma works both ways - Top traders $BTC positions long/short on Binance is at ATH according to my data since April 23 - Trash coins pumps is a sign of exhaustion - CT
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@gmnay_
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11 months
Historically BTC has been driven by risky flows, which then would go down the risk spectrum to ETH and shitcoins. If this is a "flight to safety" rally, these flows won't trickle down; historical correlations won't matter. Look at ETHBTC. There is no bid. Yet some shitcoins...
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@gmnay_
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1 year
Konnichiwa! 🇯🇵
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@gmnay_
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1 year
Interesting stuff. Finally, someone approached by DWF has decided to speak up. It's kind of funny that everyone thought $ALGO was underperforming coz Gary Gensler called it a security lol
@ceoleeparsons
Lee Parsons 🇧🇷
1 year
$OPUL turned down a $10m deal with DFW. I can't fathom why anyone would take this money and we're genuinely angry with this situation. I'd like to talk about why we refused the deal, address peoples frustrations with @algorandfoundation . & why $OPUL will be on other chains🧵
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@gmnay_
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1 year
pros: I made money cons: I am in the clown industry
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@gmnay_
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1 year
14/ I believe that the moment Synthetix IS available on Arbitrum, volume (and thus revenues) will double overnight, driven by DeFi natives alone. Infinex, which aims to onboard the wider public, is promising, considering there's not much choice anyways.
@kaiynne
kain @ Mainnet 🏴‍☠️
1 year
It is time to take on centralized exchanges.
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@gmnay_
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9 months
Why I think $MKR is going to outperform over coming months. MKR is an interesting coin - it has by far the best fundamentals in all DeFi and basically zero pumpamentals. It 2x'ed in June- July amid a16z and Paradigm capitulation, buyback activation and other catalysts. From July
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@hexonaut
Sam MacPherson
9 months
I want to kick off 2024 with an educational post about the Maker/DAI ecosystem. Memes have a strong influence in crypto and can persist even when no longer accurate. I’ll address the state of some of the larger ones. 1. “DAI is just wrapped USDC” This hasn’t been true for about
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@gmnay_
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1 year
Who's shorting Justin?
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@gmnay_
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2 years
18/ I guess it's just crypto that if something risky works for a bit, let's scale it to billions and make it even riskier. Hedging exposure? No, but how about GMX synths? It's fascinating how little discussion there is on risk parameters on the GMX forum and discord. /end
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@gmnay_
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1 year
5/ Anyone who trades perps knows that the user experience is subpar. The tradeoffs vary by DEX, but none are particularly impressive. The good news is that it's being solved. And if we have Uniswap > CB moment for perps, we're looking at a potential 50x+
@MessariCrypto
Messari | #Mainnet2024 🗽
4 years
Imagine if Uniswap was a company looking to raise venture capital. The Uniswap team can show investors that the DEX now facilitates more volume than Coinbase and Kraken using an innovative new model (AMM) . What valuation could Uniswap potentially fetch?
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@gmnay_
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1 year
7/ On dYdX, token holders are the ones left holding the bag. They get nothing and face dilution of more than 50% per year. On GMX, it's the traders who are getting screwed. For more on this, check out the thread I wrote back in December
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@gmnay_
Nay
2 years
1/ On GMX model/risks. As you probably know, it's an oracle-based, zero-slippage DEX. Its design aims to attract LPs and one particular group of traders who sponsor the party. How sustainable is it, and why it works?
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@gmnay_
Nay
1 year
Last time, gvmt also sent BTC on Wednesday and was done TWAPing by the following Tuesday. Very likely they'll do the same thing again.
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@gmnay_
Nay
1 year
Some impressive investigation skills here. If you ever need a pfp analysis, there is no second best 🤡
@otteroooo
otteroooo
1 year
Unholy coincidence #2 : profile pics This entire fiasco was sparked by a tweet from @nay_gmy let's take a closer look at nay_gmy profile pic 🦦
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@gmnay_
Nay
2 years
@avi_eisen First you execute a highly profitable trading strategy, then you become one
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@gmnay_
Nay
9 months
Some thoughts on the ETF decision: Considering it's an event with a short, known decision window starting 1 week from now and a 95% likelihood of approval, I believe as a trader you're faced with three options: 1) If you think it's a 'sell the news' event, you should have
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@gmnay_
Nay
1 year
9/ The main innovation that allows Synthetix to scale to over 40 markets and OI caps that are more than 4x its working capital, while having 8 bps roundtrip fees, is its funding & pricing mechanism that keeps the skew balanced.
@0xAfif
Afif
1 year
4/7) A good mental model for Synthetix Perps is to think of them as an asynchronous order matching system. Exchanges can be filled instantly since there is always a willing counterparty (SNX stakers), who then auctions the position off as quickly as possible (skew = 0).
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@gmnay_
Nay
1 year
15/ Summer is the period when the most $SNX gets vested, sometimes exceeding 2m per week. Going forward, the amount of newly vested supply will reduce significantly, reflecting the lower inflation rates
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@gmnay_
Nay
1 year
I’m trading simple these days - seeing any pullback in $MKR $SNX, placing a bid 🫡
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@gmnay_
Nay
1 year
5/ DAI is the only stable that passes yield to its holders by hiking the DAI savings rate. Last month, the DSR contract saw inflows of $170m, which is roughly a 170% increase. Meanwhile, there are billions of stagnant capital in money markets earning less.
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@gmnay_
Nay
1 year
8/ Endgame... Not too certain about the timeline here, but the new farms and rebranding should stir up some hype around Maker. Think it's a net positive in the long run.
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@gmnay_
Nay
10 months
The best trade of the year, thanks $ORDI Never traded bulla before. Cheers to everyone who made it this far 🫡
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@gmnay_
Nay
10 months
Took a long walk around snowy Berlin today. Imo very well might be worth 42% of income tax
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@gmnay_
Nay
1 year
13/ Two major factors holding Synthetix back are Optimism and sUSD, as acknowledged by Kain in a recent blogpost. This is best shown by Lyra, which despite being OP-native and offering more markets, is doing over 3x the volume on Arbitrum. CCIP (released this week) solves this
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