Giro Lino @giro_lino Twitter profile | Pikagi

Pikagi

Giro Lino

@giro_lino

4,689

Followers

130

Following

752

Media

3,777

Statuses

📈 Financial markets expert & hedge fund enthusiast. Decoding market trends, tech stocks & LatAm investments. Join our financial journey! 🌎📊 #FinTwit

Free Newsletter ➡️

https://t.co/2USrCRGg6l

Joined August 2021

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

1 month

As a long-time $MSFT shareholder, I've been pondering: How can we quantify AI's actual value for Microsoft? 🤔 I've crunched the numbers, and the results are fascinating. Could AI add $100B+ to Microsoft's top line by 2030? Read my deep dive here:

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Microsoft's AI Revolution: $100B Opportunity

Dive into Microsoft's ambitious AI strategy and its potential to generate over $100 billion in revenue by 2030. Explore how AI integration across Azure, GitHub, Microsoft 365, and Bing could reshape...

www.girolino.com

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

1 month

Warren Buffet on America's growth: "In 1776, it was just trees and 4M people. Today, we have 25% of the world's GDP. It's not because we're smarter or working harder; it's our system that works. It’s not perfect for everyone, but it keeps improving." #Economy #Growth #Buffett

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

$GOOGL is trading below 20x NTM P/E. In the 5YR, this is a rare event. You should not be discussing buying meme stocks. $GOOG

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 months

Peter Lynch: "The stock market is the best place to be for the next 30 years. Corporate profits grow ~7-8% annually, doubling every 10 years with dividends." 📈 History shows long-term investing in the stock market builds wealth. 📊 #ValueInvesting #MarketAnalysis #FinTwit

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

3 years

My portfolio for 2022. The objective is to outperform the S&P 500. I'll write more often throughout the year.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

Today I turned off my paid subscriptions -- obviously, I'll refund everyone. I'll keep writing for free, but less often. I joined a firm to lead an exceptional team and develop a new set of products. Thanks, I love you all ❤️

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

$FB AH price action clarifies that the market is worried about engagement (user metrics, such as DAU), not short-term headwinds.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

3 years

1/n $MELI posted outstanding quarterly earnings, especially the fintech business, with the off TPV expanding >70% and credit portfolio reaching $1,7b (+50% QoQ), entirely above my $1,4b estimates, while NPLs are improving (as expected).

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

1 month

Munger's insight highlights the importance of cautious optimism. While Musk's achievements are impressive, relying too heavily on luck and leverage can be risky. Balance and sustainability are key in the long run. #ElonMusk #CharlieMunger #Investing #FinTwit

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

Tomorrow we have our post about $MSFT. I'll demonstrate the differences between Azure and AWS $AMZN quantitatively, explaining why they differ and how to adapt an apple-to-apple comp. It's a must-read for cloud investors.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

@roderix1966 Nem fale. Já calotei todas as faculdades pra ver quem era melhor em recuperação de crédito. Foram dois anos recebendo correspondência e ligação da Kroton.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

I`ve been talking to many investors in private about $MELI. I tell you: There is no company in LatAm so much respected as $MELI. All concerns are related to its complexity and the credit side.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 months

🚀 From AI revolution to market dominance: Unpack the latest trends shaping finance & tech! 📊 Nvidia's meteoric rise 💡 AI commoditization's impact 🔮 The future of 'geek' leadership Dive into our in-depth analysis and stay ahead of the curve. Read now

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

Someone should give a raise to $FB IR team for training Zuck so well. He even used “macroeconomics,” “revenue headwinds,” and others. After last Q’s conf call, he probably learned a lesson and applied it fast—bull for $FB.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

On Wed, I'll release a post explaining I'm so bull on AWS, and its competitive advantages are unparalleled, despite $MSFT and $GOOG are doing well. If you're a $AMZN shareholder, it's a must-read. Make sure to sign-up for free.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

“In bear markets, stocks return to their rightful owners.” - J.P. Morgan Long-term investors know that real wealth is built throughout bear markets. All good-quality shares are bought by smart and long-term investors.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

Another great Q for $MELI. Anyone that read my previous post on MercadoPago was ready for such a strong quarter -- AGAIN, Pago was way above consensus. IMO positive highlight was the sustainable 3.8% take-rate.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

Want to succeed in investing in small caps? Buy 25+ stocks Focus on growth FCF Look for honest managers Hold them 5+ years Add savings often Expect losers And some big winners If FCF is growing, DON'T REALIZE GAINS. Use saving to add new stocks if that's the case. 😀

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

3 years

1/n It's on the news today that $MELI has started to operate as a payment initiator. That means that if you wanna transfer money to your $MELI account from a different institution, u can issue the transfer from Pago's account! So, you don't have to leave $MELI's app anymore.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

$SE is leaving India, so they'll have space to focus in different regions, such as Brazil 🇧🇷 I wrote a couple of times about $SE, briefly commenting about their operation in Brazil and competition vs. $MELI. The truth is there are only a few ways for $SE to thrive 🧵🧵🧵⬇️⬇️⬇️

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

1 month

"Value investing means knowing worth and paying less. Ben Graham taught this with a margin of safety. Warren Buffett, his best student, added a twist and became one of the richest people in the world." #ValueInvesting #BenGraham #WarrenBuffett #Investing #FinTwit

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

Just had a call with $MELI's former Head of FP&A. I raised at least half a dozen concerns with the company, and he explained an in-house solution for each of them. $MELI's corporate culture is without parallel.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

Don't buy any stock before reading this. ⚠️ Unlike most gurus, we don't have endless cash to buy the deep every day. Deploy your cash slowly, especially in companies you already know. One of the biggest stupidities in bear markets is buying something you hadn't studied before.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

The Newsletter is gaining muscle. The goal is simple: becoming the Global Reference for LatAm Markets.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

As an EM investor, I like to think about these figures 10y ahead🧐 1)US: ~70% of the population invest in the stock market 2)China: ~25% of people invest in the stock market 3)Brazil/India: <5% of people invest in the stock market Just imagine how big these markets could become😮

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

1/n Stock picking is much more than screening 50 stocks that delivered outstanding returns in the past and posting stuff anyone could find on Google in 5m. This is BS.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

I'll tell you the category $MELI will disrupt next year: supermarkets. What they're building is without parallel. They plan to become bigger than the entire market today in just a year.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

Excellent beat from $MELI. Rev growth +67% (vs. our +62.8%) GMV growth +32% (vs. our +28.8%) TPV growth +81% (vs. our +64.4%) 😮 Forget about macro headwinds when talking about $MELI. The company is in a league of its own.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

According to $GS, Chinese Internet is cheap even in a delisting scenario. $JD $BABA $PDD $KWEB

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

Don't waste your time looking for stocks you'd never own. Be focused. As Howard Marks says, “To be a disciplined investor you have to be willing to stand by and watch other people make money on things that you passed on”.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

3 years

Yeah… ok, Round 1 is definitely to $MELI. Yet, I wasn’t able to checkout my $PAGS POS. I’ll perform over 1000 transactions in each POS hiring the ERP system for the respective company to evaluate the service.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

The post about AWS is out. We explored fundamental reasons we believe that $AMZN has a sustainable competitive advantage over $MSFT and $GOOG. A must-read for shareholders. Check it out.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

Don't make buy/sell decisions based on sales growth. Usually, people do that because they pursue following as much stocks as possible. This is noise. Focus on understanding the underlying fundamentals, business and economic cycles. This is information. $STNE

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

#VIIA3 , one of $MELI competitors in Brazil, posted terrible earnings. GMV grew 3%yoy, sales down 2%yoy. According to my estimate, VIIA burned ~3bn LTM ⚠️ This is where $MELI will steal market share in 2022.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

The more I study $MELI, the more convinced I'm that it doesn't make sense to compare them to any Brazilian retail company. They're playing a completely different game.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

1 year

🚀 $MELI posted fantastic 1Q23 earnings, beating consensus in most metrics. As predicted in our earlier analysis, the investment case is turning with the company expanding its revenue at an annualized US$3bn rate and improving margins.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

3 years

1/n Well, I finished Bradesco's report on $NU. Before giving my opinion, let me tell you how I read sell-side reports. I don't care much about the writing, as they usually copy it from the prospectus. Instead, I focus on looking for mistakes in their estimates, which is typical

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 months

📊 New blog post! Dive into Microsoft's AI revenue projections. With estimated revenues skyrocketing to over $100B by 2033, discover how their investments are shaping the future of AI. Don't miss out on these insights! #AIFuture #Microsoft $MSFT

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

Have you wondered why $MELI outperformed peers in 2021? Considering that most of them offered massive subsidies for sellers, we should have expected otherwise. Right? Let's see...🧵🧵🧵⬇️⬇️⬇️

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

Reinvesting stock dividends is great, but having dinner with someone you enjoy staying with is also a great investment. Dont live the "long-term" putting aside today. Appreciating the time with your loved ones is the greatest investment you could make.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

My idea is to keep writing as much as I can. As I mentioned on different occasions, money isn't a relevant factor to me, so the big question mark is availability. But the goal is to keep bringing the highest quality content possible, but now entirely free.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 months

📢 New blog post! 🚀 Dive into AI's investment cycle with $MSFT leading the charge. From infrastructure to profits, discover how the IPA cycle is reshaping tech. Don't miss this insightful analysis on AI's future! #Microsoft #TechInnovation

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AI's Investment Cycle: Strategies & Tools for Investors

Explore AI's transformative power in investing with ChatGPT-4o insights. Discover AI-driven strategies, tools, and AI stock reshaping financial management. Learn how AI impacts hedge funds and...

www.girolino.com

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

My latest post about Mercado Pago is out! One of my favorite posts. After spending so much time researching $MELI, talking to former managers, modeling, and reading 10Ks, I'm glad about the outcome. Enjoy the reading.

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Leading Fintech in LatAm

giro.substack.com

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

1. Personally, I believe that $MELI and $SE will outperform in Brazil in the following years for specific reasons. IMO, $SE and $MELI have been executing consistent strategies, though the friction between both is still not high.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

Hey, everyone! I just posted my $MELI pitch on @JoinCommonstock !!! Please, give it a read and a thumbs up to help me win this competition!

Post by Giro Lino | Commonstock | 'Buy The Dip' July Idea Competition: $MELI

I thought carefully about this post. Since I took its content from paid posts in my Substack, that would not be fair to distribute it for free while competing …

commonstock.com

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

I told that before, but I'm impressed about how $MELI built MercadoPago with meaningless CAC. Pretty much zero. I believe this is why nobody is paying attention to it, though it's the most valuable business $MELI has.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

Many people sell stocks after a quick 5-10% gain, which is a good income but don't forget that wealth is built by holding to 500%+ gains. Find great companies, don't overpay, and do nothing.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

1 month

It's these rare opportunities that define our journey. #Investing #Wisdom #Buffett #FinTwit

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

1/ This week, the post elected as the best by readers was about $AMZN, specifically on how AWS is superior to $GOOG and $MSFT solution. Let's check the highlights.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

Personally, the idea of investing is buying assets that will buy me time in the future. Time to enjoy dinner with friends, travel with my family and enjoy the elderly with my loved ones.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

Have you ever seen an estimate for Azure's $MSFT ROIC? So, today I wrote a post presenting a complete analysis of its solution and how it compares to its rival AWS $AMZN. Check it out!

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

23 days

Wow, these Q2 2024 numbers are eye-popping! 👀 $MELI is crushing it: GMV up 20% YoY TPV up 36% YoY Revenue up 42% YoY Adj. FCF up 368% YoY MercadoLibre's growth in Latin America is insane. I remember when their GMV was barely $2B/quarter back in 2019. Now they're doing

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

At the current price, I believe that investors are not pricing MercadoPago in $MELI valuation. IMO, the best company to hold in the LatAm space.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

It doesn't matter how much you dislike $NU. In the long-term, the cheapest service provider will take the crown since it manages the growth losses. So far, $NU has been doing a good job, and momentum will likely continue.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

1 year

Nubank $NU has been a game-changer for millions of customers in Brazil and beyond, but how has the fintech unicorn achieved such rapid growth and success? From its innovative product offerings to its customer-focused approach, there's much to learn from Nubank's rise to the top.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

Pix is the most successful instant payment worldwide, especially for P2P transactions. Check out more about it 👉

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

Common mistakes that lead to capital losses: -Exit in panic -Late entry in stocks (FOMO) -Following advice on SMS/WhatsApp -Averaging down prices -Mistake price for value (stock at 1 is cheap and 100 expensive) -Using multiples to make decisions What else?

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

3 years

@InvestingJRNL , I hope this thread helps you to understand what $STNE is going through. 🧵

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

$NU reported an extraordinary strong quarter. I was a bit bullish on revenue, but the actual figures crushed me. Considering this enormous growth, the actual NPL is much better than the apparent one. Sign-up if you wanna receive the complete note tomorrow morning.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

$PBR is trading with a 29% dividend yield for 2022. It's unbelievable the government's mastery to destroy value.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

I see many people criticizing $MELI's debt as if it was any sort of significant risk. Don't forget the company has been increasing its credit operation. In a few quarters from now, there will be no point mentioning it.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

$MELI announced a new pricing policy for free shipping from July onwards and increased the free shipping for CPG from R$79 to R$200. In Apr, we highlighted that $MELI would increase monetization for its commerce biz. We see it as positive.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

1 year

$MELI has been delivering outstanding earnings in the previous quarter. What is your main pushback about the company?

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

1/n Morning guys. The post of $NU is out (Link in my Bio). I hope you enjoy the reading. A few highlights🧵🧵🧵

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

1 year

Hey, everyone. I want to announce that I'll resume the blog. It took me so long because I wanted to make sure that I could keep consistency, offering a high quality content.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

There is something remarkable about $MELI's logistic business. The company's shipping loss is around $1 per order vs. $2 for $AMZN. After announcing more repricing measures, the company is heading to breakeven. Massive operating leverage in the following years.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

1 year

Jean Paul Prates, CEO of $PBR, announced at an event that 47 projects will amount to investments of $62 billion USD, including the construction of 25 ships. "We will fill our shipyards again," he said, also signaling a reconnection with Bolivia, Venezuela, and Argentina. 🫣🫣🫣

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 months

Highly recommend this @lexfridman interview with @AravSrinivas of @perplexity_ai . It explains why my Google use dropped 90%+. Direct answers, AI synthesis, and 'Pro Search' have changed how I seek information.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

$MELI cost of risk is around 30%. Most analysts with $1,500-$2,000 are not reverting NPL losses to the FCFE, meaning they're estimating a negative value for the Fintech business. This is a catch that almost nobody realizes.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

Hey guys. As commented yesterday, posted this morning on my substack (link in my Bio), Chairman Meeting Feedback from $STNE. Those were the highlights 🧵⬇️

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

Sign up today for Food for Thought, a free weekly newsletter focused on emerging markets, alternative investments, and high-reward opportunities. Don't miss on our latest insight.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

Most analysts don't realize the $MELI's logistic operation is not capital intensive, though it's scale sensitive. It is probably the genuinely unmatched competitive advantage that $MELI has over its peers.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

This morning, we released our post about $MELI, presenting our outlook for the marketplace in LatAm, $MELI superiority in the region, the threats $SE may pose, and our estimates for its unit economics. Check it out ➡️

MercadoLibre ($MELI)

Brief Overview on Marketplace

giro.substack.com

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

Do you know the difference between an 80% drawdown and a 90% one? For a 90% drawdown, you have to go down 80%, then 50%. So do yourself a favor and respect your own money. Tell yourself every day: - "I'm not averaging down again; I'm not averaging down again."

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

1/n The Brazilian Central Bank (“BCB”) released a guideline (only available in Portuguese) on new capital regulation for the Brazilian fintechs. If you hold a position in $MELI, $NU, or $STNE, you should be aware of what these changes mean for them. 🧵⏬

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

In Brazil, real rates are currently at +7.3%, which is incredibly high from any possible angle. Except for a further deterioration in the current scenario, the market will start looking for quality domestic names that leverage during easing cycles in a few months.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

A little spoiler for Saturday's post. IMO, $MELI has structural competitive advantages in its payment business (apples-to-apples) versus $STNE. We'll explore this topic and much more on Saturday. Make sure to sign-up.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

1 year

This dude never learns… I’ll write more about $NU earnings, but what a quarter. Even considering SoP, Nu has reached $ITUB retail profitability, which is unbelievable given its growth.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

Cheers everyone! Let’s start writing tomorrow's post 🥃

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

$STNE released its 4Q21 earnings. All in, no surprises, which is great! I'll take a deep dive in the release, but it looks decent. Should go up tomorrow.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

Honestly, I believe the FED will chicken in the 2H22, so we may see a real rebound in high-quality growth stocks as the hawkish pitch fades away. Focus on quality names.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

I've been running many tests in $MELI credit portfolio. According to my estimates, the company has been embedding a 50% probability of default in its credit portfolio. So they make much more money than most people believe.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

Guys, it was an amazing week for the newsletter. Thank you very much for following me, and making it possible 💙

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

I understand that $DLO and $ADYEN are high-margin businesses. However, I don't know what the moats are. By the end of 2021, the amount of money raised is ridiculous. How are investors so sure that margins will not collapse going further?

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

Have ever noticed how good analysts use storytelling in their favor? Most times, they lead investors to believe they're right, even though their arguments don't make sense. This is what you should know to not misleading.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 months

Fascinating insight from @AravSrinivas on @lexfridman 's podcast: @perplexity_ai 's unique approach to search and ads. "You don't need to set out to build the greatest business of mankind." $GOOGL might have a disruptor.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

Like any discipline, investing has learning curves. You can read the books, but the learning comes from your mistakes. Dont be afraid of losing money messing up. Focus on improving the investment process and not risk too much while learning the essentials.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

I had an exciting conversation with @InvestmentTalkk . We talked about my previous experiences, thoughts on investing in LatAm, and companies such as $NU, $STNE, $MELI, and $SE. Thanks for the invitation, Conor! It was great.

Guest Interview, Giro Lino

Ex LatAm Hedge Fund Manager, with a rich expert network in the region, and author of Giro Lino

www.investmenttalk.co

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

3 years

I decided to replicate an experiment I did a few years ago. So I'm buying POS machines from $STNE, $PAGS, and $MELI to write a review on each. It's pretty fun how each company has nuances since the hiring process. I love doing it, though it will take a while to get it done.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

$MELI offers its prepayment service at a similar APR to $PAGS. However, it differentiates itself from a traditional payment company by providing its customers with the marketplace, logistics, website, loans, and ads services. The business is superior. Simple as that.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

I met one of the responsible for idealizing MercadoShops. Honestly, I was surprised by how much money $MELI has been pouring into the business and the architecture they built. Take note: $SHOP doesn't stand a chance in LatAm.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

As many asked, the most significant value leverage in my $MELI model is Mercado Crédito. In the same way that happens to $NU, a cash flow mismatch should close the gap in the following years, improving profitability significantly.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

#BPAC11 numbers on #SQIA3 . I commented last week, but the sell-side will review revenues for 2022, at least 50% up. Keep an eye on it 👀

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

$NFLX is becoming hard to ignore stock, though growth decelerated sharply.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

1/ Yesterday, we wrote about the rumors that BTG Pactual ( #BPAC11 ) would be negotiating to buy $STNE. Check it out⬇️ Since Thursday, the market has been speculating that BTG Pactual and Stone would be negotiating an M&A — actually, BTG Pactual would be the buyer.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

7/n Don't explain your investments with someone's idea. Instead, develop your own identity as an investor. Become an independent thinker. This is the true path for superior and sustainable long-term returns. It's not an easy one, though.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

I had a different educ background, so I find it interesting to see young ppl trying to understand a company through books. Yet, you don't have a "decision-making" class to help you with that. I assure you that DCFs and multiples are a hammer/nail situation. Go easy on them.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

@vtimerman É tipo dizer que n tem CNH porque dirige ilegal há 10 anos, mas a verdade é que não passa no psicotécnico do Detran.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

After spending hours building a 10-year FCFE, nobody should change its entire view based on 15 minutes chart price movement. Investing is about understanding the risk and discipline to not screw with compounding.

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

Hey, @JoinCommonstock ! My little girl looks rad wearing this bandana! Thank you very much for sending it to Brazil. I loved my swag 💙

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@giro_lino

Giro Lino

2 years

Pago is the most complex company I've ever modeled. There are five moving parts for each of the three countries, each with its modeling and different engines.

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