Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social @gcapoccia1 Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

@ushirono_okapi

@Raccoon_Face27

@ChristianHHTV

@ImHudda

@verdemanzanas

@flm_montagnes

@microkimmi82

@Muhamma54534159

@ajesplugues

@10xGenomics

@ahdat_dakhla

@Eme66n

@MayaAnna10634

@lisadagliocchib

@jandakembangstw

@ClubSTEPNFrance

@stwmaniax

@stw_ibu2

@BinorRaja

@JosephMiztli

@everlvsmore

@Candy_Chasirasi

@Wiratno63076794

@lcschiltz

@fineday999

@BAMResearch

@agatamayak

@AmericasBbb

@Bbc_Blacked_1

@moriemie85539

@FuraFuraRC

@Leo_Berlin718

@HEBRUBRANTLEY

@HaciaElUmbral

@ajotto

@nerokowu

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 years

Signs of democratic backsliding and executive overreach in the UK multiply. /1🧵

14

398

898

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

4 months

BREAKING Macron dissolves 🇫🇷 Parliament after the RN obtains 31.5% against 15.4% of the Renaissance list. New elections on June 30 and July 7 #Europeanelection2024

6

135

368

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

4 months

This may give the centrist a better hope for the 2027 presidential campaign — certainly better than staggering on in the current conditions and then lose badly in 2027, at which stage Le Pen would be President AND Bardella PM, with much worse consequences for 🇫🇷 and the 🇪🇺 / ends

20

36

350

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

4 months

On the 🇫🇷 parliament dissolution and the early elections called by Macron for June 30: quick 🧵1/n

14

119

319

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 years

Le Pen in 2017.

2

94

316

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

4 months

Macron’s move is quite shocking at first sight, but it is probably the correct one given the situation. By calling a national election he dramatises (rightly) the situation and takes RN out if the rather comfortable situation in which it has been in the past 2 years 2/n

9

55

290

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

4 months

Macron’s list might lose, of course, in which case the scenario is a three year cohabitation with Jordan Bardella as PM. Given the incompetence of Bardella and the RN leadership in general, Macron’s calculation seems to be that this will damage the party while in government 6/n

6

41

268

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

4 months

Given the absence of a majority in parliament, Marine Le Pen could just oppose anything that the government did, while gaining votes through a strategy of outer “respectability”, which gained gained currency especially vis-a-vis LFI’s (radical left) excesses 3/n

2

55

261

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

4 months

Macron now calls the RN to a real confrontation, in an election where turnout will be higher, and the stakes *much* higher, than in these European elections. The campaign is likely to be dramatic add a call to arms against RN. 4/n

4

35

256

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 years

Scholars of backsliding in liberal democracies have so far concentrated attention on Eastern European and Latin American countries, plus the US under Trump. But it won’t be long, if the UKGovt goes ahead with its plans, until they include the UK among their cases. /End

3

70

235

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

4 months

At the same time, Macron will remain President so he will sabotage them by making them look even worse than they are 7/n

4

12

232

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 months

🇫🇷 elections: at 5pm turnout was more than *twenty* points higher than in 2022 at the same time--subnational distribution of turnout rates seems to disfavor the RN, but difficult to say for sure. Only a few minutes now to the official exit polls. A 🧵to follow the results /1

3

64

225

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 years

This is the first concrete step the UK took in the direction of Poland and Hungary: since an independent monitoring authority ruled against a member of the majority, the process is scrapped and given to a committee where the majority has the final word.

Tory MP avoids suspension after Boris Johnson intervenes in sleaze row

Owen Paterson escapes sanction after MPs vote for shake-up of rules on parliamentary conduct

www.theguardian.com

1

87

198

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

4 months

Their incompetence has not damaged them in the EP campaign, but probably Macro’s calculation is that it would when they have government responsibility.

1

11

179

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

2 years

No. The rhetoric of the 🇮🇹 center-right, likely winner of the next elections, is in fact aligned with that of other Eurosceptic parties. No nationalist right wing party today advocates exiting the EU/Euro, while still wanting to undermine the EU. 🧵1/12

Leaked manifesto: Italian right-wingers will dump Euroskepticism in bid for power

Draft program for government pledges Italy’s ‘full adhesion’ to EU integration, while seeking changes to recovery fund deal.

www.politico.eu

3

67

173

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

2 years

The vaccine rollout was designed while 🇪🇺 rules still applied, and could have been done identically while in the 🇪🇺. But the point is giving psychological reassurance to those who still believe that Brexit was a great idea. The price for that is that lying has now become normal.

Boris Johnson

@BorisJohnson

2 years

Time to turn the tables on the gloom-mongers, and exploit the benefits of Brexit. Remember that vaccine rollout! Happy Brexit Day!

11K

883

7K

6

48

161

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 years

When will scholars of democratic backsliding take notice of what is happening in the UK? The case is strangely absent from comparative research on the issue...

9

74

160

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 years

We'll now likely witness not just more MP corruption, but also more democratic backsliding and executive overreach, with the appointment of Dacre to OfCom and the enactment of the UKGovt's plans on the courts and the Electoral Commission.

3

48

158

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

2 years

Wow. Does anybody remember when the UK Govt was so debased to be trolled by a fast food chain?

2

32

157

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

2 years

Even though the victory of the Meloni-Salvini-Berlusconi coalition in 🇮🇹 elections is highly likely, today's vote will have consequences on both the stability of the right and the future configuration of the left. A🧵/1

2

64

159

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

1 year

Giorgia Meloni is proving more politically courageous against 🇷🇺 than many expected before she took power. Remember also that her allies Salvini and the late Berlusconi have long held pro-Russia positions.

Igor Sushko

@igorsushko

1 year

🔥 WOW!! Italy's new Prime Minister @GiorgiaMeloni addressed the Kremlin assets in the Italian Parliament who want her to withdraw support for Ukraine because, according to them, it's "better to live in a dictatorship than to die."

1K

7K

30K

7

26

146

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

4 months

This may concentrate the vote of the anti RN electors on Macron’s list, thus stopping RN’s rise. A similar effect may happen on the extreme right, with electors of Zemmour’s Reconquete and other small ER lists flooding to Le Pen /5

1

13

146

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

2 years

Short 🧵 to sum up the political outcome of 🇮🇹 elections.

3

46

143

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 years

Executive overreach in the form of attacks on the prerogative of courts and independent agencies (either through reforms that curb their powers or by appointment of loyalist that de facto neuter them) constitute the essence of democratic backsliding /7

Backsliding

Cambridge Core - Political Economy - Backsliding

www.cambridge.org

1

36

131

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

2 years

33rd resignation.

0

27

119

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 years

...the UK Govt is now about to overhaul the system of monitoring standards in public life because the relevant independent Committee has ruled that a Tory MP breached the rules, replacing it with an all-MP committee where the Tories have a majority /6

Tory MPs block suspension of former minister who broke lobbying rules

Conservative politicians overhaul standards watchdog after Owen Paterson controversy

www.ft.com

1

35

118

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 months

BREAKING: 2nd round of 🇫🇷 elections. Exit Polls in SEATS: RN + ALLIES (Extreme right): 115-150 LR (Moderate right): 60-70 ENSEMBLE (Centrists): 150-175 NFP (Left and radical left): 175-205 VERY MUCH BELOW EXPECTATIONS FOR THE RN. THE "REPUBLICAN FRONT" HAS WORKED

2

31

123

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 years

After planning to introduce "mechanisms" through which the executive can neutralize court rulings –for the UK Supreme Court /2

Judicial Review Trends and Forecasts 2021: Accountability and the Constitution

The Attorney General, the Rt Hon Suella Braverman QC MP delivered a keynote speech to the 2021 Public Law Project Conference.

www.gov.uk

1

33

107

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 years

after trying to install a loyalist at the head of OfCom despite the fact that the agency should formally be independent, and that the government’s candidate was rejected by the selection committee as not possessing the necessary requisites; /5

Paul Dacre will get second chance to apply for Ofcom chair, ministers confirm

Interviews for TV regulator to be rerun despite panel saying former Daily Mail editor was ‘not appointable’

www.theguardian.com

1

33

107

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

2 years

“Europe cannot be held hostage by the ill will of some of its members…Hungary’s objections have nothing to do with corporate tax“ France ready to bypass Hungary for global corporate tax deal | Financial Times

France ready to bypass Hungary for global corporate tax deal

Finance minister Bruno Le Maire pushes for EU workaround to approve minimum tax rate for big companies

www.ft.com

7

26

108

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

2 years

They won’t care. Brexit was never about having *fewer* immigrants, but having immigrants *with fewer rights*. Immigration figures published at the time showed constantly higher non-EU than EU immigration. EU citizens had just too many rights for the typical Brexit voters.

Best for Britain

@BestForBritain

2 years

Brexit supporting MP: "Many Leave voters assumed Brexit would reduce immigration. But since the referendum it’s increased. And people are starting to notice." Never say the quiet bit out loud. ~AA

20

201

433

61

24

106

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 years

after planning to reform the Electoral Commission so that it "respects the priorities of HMG in matters of elections" (?) ; /4

The Elections Bill’s proposals on Electoral Commission governance: risks to electoral integrity...

The Elections Bill has been subject to both criticism and praise, as discussed by Emilia Cieslak on this blog, and a panel of experts at a recent Unit seminar. In this post, Unit Deputy Director Al…

constitution-unit.com

1

26

101

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 years

…and the ECtHR); /3

The rule of Dominic Raab

The justice secretary’s plan to defy the ECHR will delight dictators worldwide

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk

1

27

96

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

2 years

These people are beyond parody…

5

20

91

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 years

Looks like somebody is noticing that something is wrong here. Probably not enough to stop it though.

Adam Bienkov

@AdamBienkov

3 years

Conservative MP and Father of the House Peter Bottomley says he won’t vote for the amendment overturning Owen Paterson’s suspension and says this attempt to rip up the Standards system is wrong.

34

373

2K

1

18

90

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 years

Very useful (and worrisome) thread by @chrischirpon how the UKGovt is ignoring the Covid situation. Bottom line 1: "I am wearing my FFP2 and scaling back socializing for now". Bottom line 2: "If you're eligible for another vax does (whatever number) go get it".

Prof. Christina Pagel

@chrischirp

3 years

THREAD on where we are with Covid in UK: TLDR: really not great to be honest. 1/8

84

2K

5K

4

39

94

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

1 year

Final official results of 🇵🇱 elections: PiS (right): 35.4% KO (Center): 30.7% Third Way (centre): 14.4% Left: 8.6% Confederation (extreme right): 7.2% Turnout: 74.4% A great victory for liberal democracy and for European integration. A few takeaways🧵/1

4

19

88

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

2 years

Great thread on access to top Universities. In my 20-year experience at @UniofOxford , @lewis_goodall is correct: admission criteria have become more sophisticated, state school applications have gone up—and quality has certainly not gone down, rather the opposite.

Lewis Goodall

@lewis_goodall

2 years

Context: the UK’s institutions and British society are dominated by those who have attended fee-paying schools. For example, the new cabinet is 60%+ private school (vs 7% of population). Private schoolers remain significantly over-represented at Oxford and Cambridge themselves.

241

2K

6K

1

22

86

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 years

And it is happening...

Laura Hughes

@Laura_K_Hughes

3 years

Tory whips have imposed a three-line whip on the Leadsom amendment, which has been selected for vote this afternoon.

210

268

456

1

9

85

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

4 months

Macron’s strategy becomes more concrete: when Macron was trying to pass the pension reform to stabilize 🇫🇷 public finances (the 🇫🇷 system is one of the most generous in 🇪🇺) the RN opposed it by calling “unjust and pointless”. Now that they may go to power, they want to keep it.⬇️

Laurent Bazin

@laurentbazin

4 months

Spectaculaire rétropédalage de Bardella sur les retraites ce matin @RTLFrance . Soudain, il n’est plus urgent du tout de « défaire » la réforme comme le promettait pourtant Marine Le Pen en 2023, dans le feu du combat parlementaire.

96

480

788

6

26

86

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

8 months

I gave an interview to Der Spiegel on the possibility for liberal democracies to defend their institutions and values from the rise of illiberal forces on the right end of the political spectrum. The interview is gated, but I summarize it in this 🧵/1

(S+) Politikexperte Giovanni Capoccia über bedrohte Demokratie: »Wir sind nicht alarmiert genug«

Oxford-Wissenschaftler Giovanni Capoccia erforscht, wie sich Demokratien gegen ihre eigene Vernichtung wehren können. Was rät er für den Umgang mit der AfD?

www.spiegel.de

3

33

84

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 years

At @Politics_Oxford --we are looking for a finishing PhD student or post-doc for a fixed-term lectureship in qualitative methods. Please spread the word!

2

58

81

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 years

The Rassemblement National has to shred 1.2m copies of a campaign brochure because of the photo below. Like Zemmour and Melenchon, Marine Le Pen has always been a supporter and a defender of Putin. We’ll see whether and how this impact the opinion polls soon.

Deborah Asseraf

@DeborahAsseraf

3 years

Un tract du #RN ne sera pas distribué en raison d’une photo pour le moins gênante. Selon @libe ce serait 1,2 million d’exemplaires à la poubelle (jaune j’espère)

140

1K

4K

5

42

77

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

2 years

BREAKING: Melenchon's NUPES ahead (26.2%) of Macron's Ensemble! (25.8%) in the first round of 🇫🇷 legislative elections. Projections still give Macron a majority of seats, but with a small margin

1

21

77

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

2 years

New 🇮🇹 government, with Meloni PM as expected, is already formed. The formal trnsmission of power from Draghi happens tomorrow morning. At only 9 days after the opening of Parliament, it is the quickest govt. formation of the history of the Republic. 🧵/1

3

19

76

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 months

G Attal, current PM, speaks: He says that he did not choose to call snap elections, but he fought to avoid three risks: growth of LFI, victory of RN, and disappearance of Ensemble. He says all three have been avoided.

4

15

74

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

2 years

BREAKING: 🇫🇷 legislative election: a maximum of 235 seats for Macrion, well far from the 289 necessary for an absolute majority. RN 3rd largest group in parliament with up to 90 seats. 4th Republic situation.

4

26

71

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 months

Doyen political journalist A Duhamel calls this, with reason, "the biggest surprise of the electoral history of the 5th Republic". "The RN has won the first round but lost the 2nd round"

1

17

69

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

2 years

Every EU ambassador has boycotted the ceremony of the anniversary of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Only two exceptions: Poland and Hungary.

lettres de Teheran

@LettresTeheran

2 years

Voici donc l’ambassadeur hongrois à côté de Raïssi à la cérémonie d’hier et l’ambassadeur de Pologne en train de serrer la main au ministre des affaires étrangères iranien. Tous les autres diplomates européens ont boycotté la cérémonie.

11

128

236

11

37

65

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 months

This is what to expect if the ticket Trump-Vance wins: isolationism justified by ridiculous, intelligence-insulting arguments. This is from Vance’ intervention at the Munich security conference: “The 🇺🇸 cannot help 🇺🇦 because we don’t produce enough ammunition”.

Daniel McDowell

@daniel_mcdowell

3 months

If you don't know anything about JD Vance's foreign policy views, watch this clip. The foundational idea of Vance's foreign policy views is "scarcity." Vance sees the United States as a declining power that can no longer lead the world. 1/3

263

731

2K

4

25

64

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

2 years

Great conference at @Politics_Oxford on democratic backsliding

0

4

63

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

2 years

The Chair of the Electoral Commission explains how, after the Election Bill became law in April, the UK no longer has an *independent* agency monitoring the fairness of elections. @AlexDean94 in @prospect_uk

The Electoral Commission is now under government control. We should fear for UK democracy

John Pullinger, chair of the UK's elections regulator, is tasked with protecting the integrity of the vote. Speaking to Prospect, he identifies a grave threat

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk

4

76

63

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 months

Incredible if one thinks about initial forecast: NO polls gave the RN significantly less than 200 seats. Here the maximum in 150.

1

12

63

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 months

Marie-Caroline Le Pen, Marine Le Pen's older sister, parachuted in a district that the RN believed to be safe, is defeated --it's, I believe, the third time that this happens, but this time it looked like she had very good chances...

3

14

62

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

2 years

Great reporting by @lewis_goodall on far-right anti-refugees demonstrations in the UK.

Lewis Goodall

@lewis_goodall

2 years

There are too many people claiming those orchestrating the rallies at hotels housing asylum seekers aren’t the organised far right. They’re either ignorant or have an agenda. Take a look at the one I went to in Rotherham and judge for yourself.

807

3K

8K

4

18

58

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 months

The centrists will likely try to rebuild a larger center coalition independently of Macron, who is unpopular at the moment. But it may be difficult to sideline Macron completely, at least until they have a candidate that has very good chances to beat Marine Le Pen in '27 --end

4

8

58

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

4 months

Macron’s strategy of calling RN’s bluffs is starting to have effects. Bardella reneges on the abrogation Macron’s pension reform. The RN’s plan (retirement at 60 or 62 depending on the years of service) is not financially viable, and they knew it all along

Jordan Bardella revient sur la promesse du RN d’abroger la réforme des retraites s’il parvient au...

Le président du Rassemblement national, désireux d’apparaître « raisonnable » sur le plan économique, a affirmé qu’« il faudra faire des choix » en cas de victoire de sa formation aux élections...

www.lemonde.fr

1

21

57

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

2 years

Afraid not. Relevant history here is that of post-war neo-fascism. Meloni and FdI come from that and are ambiguous towards it (their symbol, language, some of their local cadres). She won legitimately, but the absence of shiny boots and militias is not enough to be "center-right"

Piers Morgan

@piersmorgan

2 years

Italy’s new PM, Georgia Meloni, is not ‘far-right.’ If you think she is, you really need to brush up on your Nazi/Fascist history. She’s what she says she is… centre-right. The left should stop calling every conservative opponent Nazis/Fascists. It’s so lazy.

2K

3K

28K

1

11

55

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 years

Delighted to share the good news of a @UniofOxford grant with @MatthiasDilling and @Krawatzek (ZiOS Berlin) to analyze propaganda strategies of the German extreme right AfD.

1

56

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 years

Right. Not that complicated, is it?

Dave Keating

@DaveKeating

3 years

Dutch PM @MarkRutte & Commission President Ursula @VonDerLeyen say the threat to withhold EU pandemic relief from #Poland isn't "blackmail" as the Polish PM claims. If there's no guarantee EU law will be upheld in 🇵🇱, how can they be sure the money will be correctly spent? #EUCO

7

26

107

3

9

55

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 years

Check out the schedule for this term’s Politics Colloquium at @Politics_Oxford , co-organized with my great colleagues @MatthiasDilling and @melislaebens Join us on Zoom, instructions at

2

9

54

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 months

UPDATED SEAT PROJECTIONS 🇫🇷: NFP: 172-205 Ensemble: 157-174 LR: 57-67 RN: 113-148 Same as earlier, more or less, but RN's maximum is yet again slightly lowered.

2

17

54

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

1 year

This coming Friday and Saturday (3-4 November) I will be hosting a conference on "Countering Illiberalism in Liberal Democracies", which I have co-organised with Isabela Mares ( @isabelaanda ), and which will take place at @Politics_Oxford A 🧵/1

1

15

55

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 years

This is a very significant symbolic gesture by Macron in the fight over the future of the EU. Clear signal to the pro-EU integration and pro-democracy camp that he will oppose the drift towards illiberalism and dis-integration.

Peter Murphy

@MurphyPeterN

3 years

First stop for #Macron in Budapest the Jewish cemetery to pay respects to the philosopher Ágnes Heller (d.2019), also an opponent of PM Orbán @AFPphoto

9

81

321

1

19

54

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

2 years

A simple, clear, explanation of how the 🇬🇧 Govt plans to break international law --the Universal Declaration of Human Right and the International Refugee Convention in particular. Why? They need to scapegoat migrants for electoral reasons.

Best for Britain

@BestForBritain

2 years

💥 AMAZING by Chris Daw KC @crimlawuk . A must-watch and must-share. "To detain someone, without trial, without access to a lawyer, or the courts, and then deport them - it's abominable. The UK will become an international human rights pariah. There's nothing 50-50 about it." ~AA

407

7K

16K

0

32

53

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 months

NFP has the relative majority, but not enough to govern, and Ensemble makes a very good score, BEATING the RN--GREAT SURPRISE of these exit polls.

1

8

54

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

2 years

@alexhallhall Agree. The most interesting part of the story is the privileged relationship that some British press, including the gutter press, has with the Royal Family and how this turns into a form of codependency. I am not aware of anything like that existing in any other European monarchy

3

12

49

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 years

Unsurprising. The UKG does not want to reach a settlement but disrupt the legal order on which the SM is based. Saying that the role of the ECJ "must end" also rules out "Swiss-style" solutions in which there's arbitration first and the ECJ only intervenes if necessary.

Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

3 years

So much for UKG softening its stance on ECJ @10DowningStreet statement this eve: “There’s been plenty of speculation about governance this week but our position remains unchanged: the role of the European Court of Justice in resolving disputes between the UK and EU must end.”

52

86

166

8

22

47

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

2 years

Imagine what would happen if the German Chancellor wore a scarf with the 1937 German borders (let alone the 1941 ones). What a pathetic, ridiculous autocrat.

Daniel Freund

@daniel_freund

2 years

The Prime Minister of Hungary - wearing a scarf with the map of Greater Hungary. How reassuring for Hungary's neighbors.

683

1K

7K

2

14

49

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 months

We will have to see what the distribution of seats within the NFP (and in particular the weight of LFI) to see how easy a center right government will be. If these numbers are confirmed, Macron has won his bet.

2

6

49

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

2 years

Great conclusive panel at our conference at @Politics_Oxford on democratic #backsliding

2

4

48

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 months

The main result, of course, is that the RN, which presented itself to be ready to govern, receives a defeat. It is likely to double its MPs, but this remains a defeat given its EP election results, above 30%, and its attraction of part of the moderate right in an electoral pact.

1

7

48

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

4 months

Elections in 🇫🇷. After backpedaling on pension reform, the RN bins another flagship policy: lowering the VAT on several products to 5%. Easy to make promises when they have no immediate perspective to go to power. Now they are terrified of the markets. #dissolution A short 🧵1/3

BFMTV

@BFMTV

4 months

🔴 EN DIRECT Législatives: Jordan Bardella renvoie à "un second temps" la suppression de la TVA sur les produits de première nécessité

698

581

970

3

17

48

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

2 years

First exit polls on 🇮🇹 elections: % votes, +/-2% RIGHT: FdI (Meloni): 25% (largest party) Lega (Salvini): 11.5% FI (Berlusconi): 7% LEFT: PD: 20% SI/Greens: 3.5% +Eur: 2.5% 5MS: 15.5% Azione/Italia Viva (centrists): 7%

4

35

47

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 years

When did elections become "free and fair" in Western Europe? Isabela Mares @isabelaanda on "Democratization after democratization" at the Politics Colloquium at @Politics_Oxford Friday, Feb 18, 4pm on Zoom. Organized w/ @melislaebens @MatthiasDilling

0

8

46

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 years

@echrhawk Agree. The list can easily be longer than the one I made. See e.g.

1

15

45

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 months

Melenchon know all this very well, and yet he speaks as if he has got a majority for himself and his party. This is not the case. The negotiations (because there will indeed be negotiations) between the center and the left are likely to be interesting and complicated.

2

8

46

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 months

It is an important fact, of course, that the left-wing coalition is highly likely to come up as the (relative) winner of these elections. However, the performance of the centrists remains strong and they are very unlikely to let themselves be cast aside, as Melenchon said.

1

9

46

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 months

Great 🧵 on 🇬🇧 elections👇👇👇

Lewis Goodall

@lewis_goodall

4 months

IF YOU'RE JUST WAKING UP 🧵 LABOUR LANDSLIDE. THE WORST TORY DEFEAT IN HISTORY. COLLAPSE EVERYWHERE LIB DEMS REVIVE BEST RESULT FOR THIRD PARTY SINCE 1923 SNP IMPLOSION. LABOUR DOMINANT IN SCOTLAND AGAIN. MUSLIM VOTE FOR LABOUR COLLAPSES INDEPENDENTS ELECTED IN SAFE SEATS

214

2K

38K

1

6

45

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 years

Apparently Ukrainian refugees (mostly women and children) fleeing the war create a security risk, while appointing Lebedev to the HoL against the advice of the UK security agencies that considered him a security risk, does not constitute a security risk.

Lucy Fisher

@LOS_Fisher

3 years

Exc: Ministers have raised concerns about Ireland’s open-door policy to Ukrainian refugees, arguing it creates UK security risk. Dublin joined EU-wide scheme welcoming refugees for 3 years, via which Ukrainians can travel to UK (Common Travel Area) without biometric checks 1/3

844

489

2K

2

17

44

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 years

This was always the plan... Brexit minister Frost threatens to suspend part of Northern Ireland deal with EU

11

12

41

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 years

Poland could use its veto on decisions that require unanimity, but "suspending its budget contributions" is, to put it mildly, an empty threat. Poland justice minister threatens EU veto over rule of law ‘blackmail’

7

14

42

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 months

It is quite incredible to see that the RN + allies are now given as the WEAKEST among the three main blocs that have competed in these elections.

3

8

41

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 months

Once the rhetoric and posturing of these hours will go down (with the possible exception of Melenchon, who is unlikely to soften his tones until the minute before the coalition agreement), it is likely that the coalition negotiations will last long. 🇫🇷 2024-2027 will be...

1

10

42

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 months

Melenchon spins this as a "defeat for Macron and his coalition". In fact, this reading of the results is extremely unlikely to be accepted across the board. He continues by saying that the NPF should govern and will apply its program, all of it. In fact, this is very unlikely.

1

5

42

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 months

This is in fact very unlikely and might isolate Melenchon within the coalition. We will see how dominant LFI is within the NFP. Or it might just be an opening gambit. But a Melenchon government based on a NFP parliamentary minority is an extremely unlikely scenario.

1

7

41

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 months

To sum up the outcome of this 🇫🇷 2nd round: 1. the only sure thing is that Attal will resign and the current government is no longer viable. This was largely expected. 2. The anti-RN "front republicain" has worked and RN, initially expected to form the government, is defeated.

1

17

40

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 months

As expected, Melenchon (LFI leader) speaks first. Very contested also in his own coalition, but he definitely aspires to be PM. This remains an unlikely perspective, however. This time he does not display contested LFI politician R Hassan next to him.

1

6

40

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

2 years

The new strategy of all anti-EU populists has therefore been to *hollow out* the EU, turning it into a collection of nation-states. This is what their rhetoric of ‘reforming the EU” really means. 3/12

1

5

38

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

2 years

This Friday and Saturday I will be organizing a conference with @isabelaanda at @YaleMacMillan and @YaleChess from a collective project on how liberal democracies can counter illiberalism. A short 🧵1/5

2

7

38

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 months

Attal's tones are also very conciliatory towards other parties, like Ruffin's, Philippe's, Faure's, and others: Melenchon was the only one to insist with divisive and aggressive tones. He is likely to take LFI with him, not sure about all the other parties in the coalition.

1

7

38

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

2 years

Cracks in the right-wing majority in 🇮🇹 seem serious: after Berlusconi's refusal to support Meloni's candidate to the Presidency of the Senate, negotiations for the composition of the government seem harder than expected. 🧵/1

1

10

38

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

4 months

🇫🇷 Legislative Elections: MUCH higher turnout expected for this 1st round. In 2022 turn our was 47.5%. Today it will AT LEAST be 20% higher. A 🧵on what that means. /1

mathieu gallard

@mathieugallard

4 months

🇨🇵🗳️ Le taux de participation anticipé par les instituts : Elabe 69,5% Ifop 69% OpinionWay 68,5% Ipsos 67,5%

9

32

76

2

15

37

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 years

On the “London laundromat”, by @OliverBullough Well worth 9’ of your time to understand why the UKGovt is lagging behind the EU and the US on sanctioning oligarchs. “The road between Moscow and Kiev goes through Belgravia”

0

12

36

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

1 year

Death of Silvio #Berlusconi : expected after the recent hospitalization. Discussions on his role in Italian politics and his legacy will be polarized as those on his politics. But his departure opens up a phase of uncertainty in the 🇮🇹 party system. A🧵/1

4

18

36

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

1 year

🇵🇱 exit polls are definitely confirmed: PO/TD/Lewica 53% of total vote and Tusk’s PO above the psychological barrier of 30%. #PolandElection

mathieu gallard

@mathieugallard

1 year

🇵🇱🗳️ Les résultats en Pologne sur 95,7% des bureaux dépouillés : ⚫️PiS (conservateur populiste) 36% 🔵PO (libéral) 30,1% 🟠TD (centre) 14,4% 🔴Lewica (gauche) 8,5% 🟤Kon (extrême-droite) 7,2% L'opposition 🔵🟠🔴 est nettement au-dessus de la barre des 50%

4

33

178

0

9

37

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 months

Ciotti also has likely lost his bet: only 8-11 seats (as part of the 117-148 of the RN/allies), against the 57-67 seats of the original LR. All in all, the cordon sanitaire, although badly damaged, has held up.

3

6

34

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 months

New projections for seat distribution within NFP: LFI (radicakl left): 68-74 PS (socialists): 63-69 PE (environmentalists): 32-36 So LFI ahead, as expected, but PS very much stronger than in the prior parliament.

2

17

37

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

3 years

The perspective of "hollowing out" from within, ie seriously undermining the integrity of the legal order supporting the single market, is the biggest threat faced by the EU at the moment. /1🧵

2

19

36

Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social

@gcapoccia1

2 years

It has become clear to all right-wing eurosceptic parties that advocating exit is a losing strategy (see Marine Le Pen in 2017)—too expensive especially for countries with a high GDP/debt ratio like Italy or France. 2/12

1

2

35