Football mind reader. 15 years profiling managers and their leadership styles. 6 years applying the Objective Personality System and other mental models.
The situation at Birmingham.
John Eustace and Wayne Rooney are polar opposite personality types.
Completely different functions, different attitudes, different temperaments.
They could hardly be more different.
• Eustace values control (work to a plan)
• Rooney values chaos
Graham Alexander has just given his best-ever interview as a football manager.
His MK Dons side were 2-0 up against Barrow before conceding on 90+3 and 90+5.
Here's 8 relatable GIFs to mark the occasion...
Tough period for Newcastle. They're clearly depleted and running on empty.
But there's no signs whatsoever that Eddie Howe is out of his depth.
He's calm and collected as ever. Unruffled, responding quickly to any question thrown his way with real depth and clarity.
So
Kieran McKenna is a phenomenon.
When a chairman or CEO takes a leap of faith on a first-time manager, this is the guy they dream about in their wildest fantasies.
Because they all look like McKenna at the beginning.
Career coaches.
Guys who had no playing career for
Tony Mowbray to Birmingham is an ideal match on many levels.
Common sense prevailing. An apology from Knighthead for the Rooney debacle.
Mowbray isn’t the complete package, but he doesn’t need to be.
Knighthead were never going to fulfil their lofty ambitions in one giant
So Schuey is going to Stoke.
It's easy for us to judge from the outside, call him a money-grabber or say that he's making a big mistake.
But let's be real about this.
Long-term financial security is a big deal for any man and everyone has a price relative to their current
Nathan Jones to Millwall is a mouthwatering prospect.
One of the EFL's most tribal clubs paired up with one of its most tribal managers.
Don't read too much into his failed attempts to build connections at Stoke or Southampton.
He's an intense character. Full on. Straight out
The Premier League now has a big problem with VAR - a conceptual problem that runs much deeper than just incomptence or bad PR.
Accusations of corruption might be laughable when each one is taken in isolation, but this is now becoming the go-to response of the disgruntled fan.
Neil Wood gone at Salford.
Supposedly a good coach but he never really put himself across as strong leadership material in the traditional sense.
And that's a problem, at Salford especially.
It's an odd club.
The players are mostly household names for the level but the
Swansea fans need to wake up to reality.
I get that losing Graham Potter was painful because they dared to dream of the Rodgers and Laudrup days again.
But Steve Cooper was never fully appreciated in that job despite two play-off finishes because the style wasn't as pleasing as
So what’s all this fuss about Liam Manning?
How does a manager who initiated MK Dons' surprise relegation into League Two last season now find himself in the dugout of a stable Championship club?
Well, image goes a long way.
And Manning's image is one of deep knowledge and
Troy Deeney is going to be fun.
Ditch any preconceptions you might have, he's already proving to be a man of surprises.
Saying things you would never expect him to say.
...But then also saying the odd thing you might expect him to say.
For example:
"The hardest part (of the
Here's Richie Wellens giving us a fine demonstration of Extroverted Intuition (Ne) as a flow state.
Jasper Gronkjaer. Remember him?
Me personally, I might have gone to the grave having never thought about him ever again.
Until Wellens plucks his name out of nowhere to draw a
Here’s Nathan Jones in a comfortable savior state, responding to a question about Connor Wickham the human.
Not to be confused with Connor Wickham the footballer.
Nathan is a Decider. Fixated with people, not things - specifically the character of people.
He leads with
Let this season be a lesson to clubs about the value of experience.
First Joe Edwards, now Ian Foster.
Both pitched in way above their level.
Foster is clearly an intelligent guy and a good coach.
He has a philosophy. Knows how to put on a training session. Knows his own
The best interviews on the final weekend are never the ones from matches that had anything at stake.
Here's a classic example of someone who no longer has to bite his tongue.
Charlton have been decent under Nathan Jones.
Nothing special. But a 14-game unbeaten run (10 draws)
I've started a Telegram group for the Euros.
It's mainly for the purpose of profiling teams collaboratively throughout the tournament but I'll also be putting all my tips up on there for free.
Like this tweet (anonymously!) and you should receive a DM with the link.
Chris Wilder rolling the dice.
Leaving no avenue unattended in his attempt to find a catalyst for Sheffield United's survival bid.
Bold tactics at Crystal Palace last night.
Two up top - but the best two players on the pitch prove to be the difference.
No excuses.
But
Reading back through
@AndyhHolt
's tweets about the situation at Accrington Stanley, it's hard not to sympathise with his position.
He has poured a chunk of his personal wealth into the club and been nothing less than a model custodian since the day he saved the club from a dire
So what happened at Adams Park yesterday?
First impressions:
The Leahy stoppage was harrowing for all concerned and Steve Evans simply hasn't read the severity of the situation and stayed in his default competitive chimp mode.
Matt Bloomfield has taken exception to
I think Rotherham have shit the bed by sacking Matt Taylor.
It's a big mistake in the grand scheme, unless they have someone special lined up as his successor.
I get that recent results and performances haven't been up to scratch. And I get that the manner of some defeats this
Next Plymouth manager.
Brian Barry-Murphy?
Very similar career profile to both Ryan Lowe and Steven Schumacher.
Same era, similar clubs, same longevity.
Managed Rochdale for 2 seasons in League One and did well, playing attractive football despite limitations.
Took United to
Just bin VAR. Literally tomorrow.
It's now quite obvious that you can never eliminate human error from a sport as fluid as football, and trying to do so only dehumanises the experience in any case.
It's a complete waste of time for no obvious benefit. The downsides far, far,
Here's a glimpse of why Ryan Lowe gets the results that he does.
With a Preston side that the market and performance data doesn't rate nearly as highly as their league position.
Based on closing prices, they are the 18th strongest team in the Championship.
By my own measures
The game's nearly up for Ryan Lowe at Preston, judging by the reaction to this.
This is the end of Michael Duff's reign at Swansea all over again - except Lowe's been in charge for 2 years, not 2 months.
When a fanbase is on the brink of fully turning, you must tread very
⚪ "A couple of fans have said don't talk to me about the league table, I want to talk about the identity."
"Let me put that back in your corner. What has the fan done in football?"
"But they're a paying punter who has an opinion."
#Preston
North End boss Ryan Lowe
#BBCEFL
Charlton away at Pompey tomorrow.
Last 11 visits...
22/23: ✅ W 3-1
21/22: ✅ W 2-1
20/21: ✅ W 2-0
18/19: ✅ W 2-1
17/18: ✅ W 1-0
06/07: ✅ W 1-0
05/06: ✅ W 2-1
04/05: ❌ L 2-4
03/04: ✅ W 2-1
99/00: ✅ W 2-0
97/98: ✅ W 2-0
No wonder they've sold all their tickets.
Some early thoughts on Andre Breitenreiter.
• Observer (things, not people)
• Info dominant, not energy
• Sensor, not Intuitive
• Comfortable with chaos, not seeking control
In his first press conference, one word came up over and over again: conversations.
And another
Can Chris Wilder keep Sheffield United in the Premier League?
Short answer: No, don’t be daft.
Over half the season has gone. The Blades have only 9 points.
If they average 1.5 points per game between now and May, they would finish on 36.
That’s a top-half standard - and
Some thoughts on Gareth Ainsworth and what’s happening at QPR.
Curious to know if any QPR fans fancy a Spaces session this evening. Call it group therapy.
So much I didn’t say in this video. I could talk about this situation for hours.
When I refer to the absurdity of experienced managers being overlooked, Paul Hurst is the first name that immediately pops into my head.
Some see a career that has gone backwards but I'm listening to a bloke who still cares deeply and has matured a lot since Ipswich and
Steve Cooper keeping the Forest players out on the pitch to avoid any nonsense in the tunnel at half time. You won't find that in the manual - never seen it before - and it's those little touches in the heat of battle that make me wonder if he's actually elite.
Classic Dave Challinor.
There's always a bigger picture. And that bigger picture doesn't change.
The patterns of intuition (N), combined with control (Oi).
Promotion to League One. A routine 2-0 home win against Cambridge on the opening day.
All is well at Edgeley Park.
But
Lots to say on this. Nearly did something on Edwards yesterday.
His recent interviews have been alarming. He sounded completely out of his depth.
This job was way too big, way too soon.
I will keep saying it: Experience is massively undervalued in the modern game.
Football
#Millwall
are set to sack head coach Joe Edwards today. Six defeats in the last seven Championship matches. Millwall will move for ex-manager/player Neil Harris as his replacement: talks are underway with Cambridge. Story with
@mcgrathmike
Recommended bets:
• 0.5pt Sheff Wed to qualify at 16/1
• 0.25pt Sheff Wed to win on penalties at 66/1
• 0.25pt Peterborough to win on penalties at 66/1
Classic Richie Wellens at Rodney Parade yesterday, as BBC Wiltshire go to reporter
@talkinghawes
with customary lawnmowers in the background...
RW: "Can you cut sand? Fucking hell."
AH: "Sorry Richie, we're live..."
Late limbs from the Cider Army - and not for the first time on the road under Nige Pearson...
Feb 21: Swansea 3-1 (Wells 66, Palmer 80, Semenyo 90+7)
Apr 21: Sheff Wed 1-1 (Bakinson 87)
Sep 21: QPR 2-1 (Martin 45, Wells 90+3)
Dec 21: Hull 2-2 (Semenyo 54, James 90+1)
Mar
Interesting dynamic at
@ntfc
.
Aussie-born local boy Jon Brady continually dropping Northampton Saints rugby union team into his post-match summaries.
Great example of De (tribe above self), pulling others into his world.
Not just about Cobblers, but the whole town as a
Longest-serving EFL managers who haven't been promoted with the club they manage...
(Reminder that 62 teams don't get promoted every year)
1. Nigel Clough (2 years, 346 days)
2. Nigel Pearson (2 years, 238 days)
3. Ryan Lowe (1 year, 315 days)
4. Johnnie Jackson (1 year, 216
Matthew Taylor gone at Shrewsbury.
That's two very good bites at the cherry now and he's come up dreadfully short in both.
Not only that, but both his Walsall and Shrewsbury tenures ran along much the same lines.
A long string of underwhelming results and performances
So everybody agrees Nathan Jones is a good manager, even disgruntled Stoke fans. But everyone just accepts he's now a goner.
You know, there was a time when clubs would just grit their teeth through periods like this. We used to call it character building. Unimaginable in 2019.
The engima that is Darren Moore continues.
Amazing bloke. Empowers others. Must be brilliant to work with.
Hands ownership of the process over to those around him, yet fronts up and takes all the flak when things go pear.
A master of emotional intelligence.
Yet little
Darren Moore has today been relieved of his duties as Huddersfield Town Manager.
Statements from Chairman Kevin Nagle and CEO Jake Edwards ⤵️
Everyone at the Club thanks Darren for his efforts and wishes him the very best for the future.
#htafc
So many variables you have to stay on top of nowadays...
Nigel Clough: "A lot of effort today, a lot of energy, on a very, very warm day. And with us having 3 or 4 ginger lads that doesn't help."
In case you're wondering what was motivating Dino Maamria to damage Cambridge's survival hopes last night...
"I had three Cambridge players turn me down in January when it was really tough to bring players in. I'd like to think now they know what we're all about."
Liverpool and Barcelona both being linked with Roberto De Zerbi.
Wondering if it might just be cheaper to pay Tony Bloom a few million quid for an hour of his time and ask him who he'd appoint if he lost De Zerbi.
We all know this was a big goal in midweek - but how big exactly?
For Barnsley, it's a mild setback in a barnstorming run.
For Bolton, it could be season-defining.
For Ian Evatt, it could be tenure-defining.
Time will tell.
However, the sheer drama of how it unfolded only
Ridiculous ending as Bolton take a point their late pressure deserved, Randell Williams firing home the rebound after Josh Sheehan’s penalty was saved.
#bwfc
#barnsleyfc
Match preview: Southampton v Birmingham
Expect a different Birmingham to the team that lost 2-0 at home to Hull on Wednesday night.
I've talked elsewhere about those Blues players going into survival mode following Wayne Rooney's arrival. For them and their careers, this is a
There's an intriguing story developing at the MKM Stadium where two dreamers are hell-bent on dragging the Tigers back into the upper reaches of the Championship.
The relationship between owner Acun Ilicali and manager Liam Rosenior could be a match made in heaven.
More on Salford.
I wasn't expecting such a big reaction to the first post but it appears to be a story that genuinely fascinates a lot of people.
I think I know why.
It's a story about people. Ex-players we know. Lives we have followed long before they bought this club.
Throw
So Rooney's getting the boot at Birmingham. Didn't even make it to January.
Utter shambles but a valuable case study in workplace culture.
When things are going reasonably well, just leave it be.
Don't turn everybody's world upside-down without fair reason or fair warning.
The situation at Birmingham.
John Eustace and Wayne Rooney are polar opposite personality types.
Completely different functions, different attitudes, different temperaments.
They could hardly be more different.
• Eustace values control (work to a plan)
• Rooney values chaos
You'd assume that squandering a 3-0 half-time lead to lose 4-3 is a once-in-a-lifetime experience but it's happened Gary McSheffrey before. Away to Morecambe.
Steve Cotterill gave a very emotional interview after Shrewsbury's final game of the season, raising doubts over his future at the club.
So what exactly is going on at the New Meadow? And what does all this tell us about Cotterill's personality?
Fair play to the Reading players, banging out Automatic by The Pointer Sisters and Jocelyn Brown Somebody Else's Guy while Russell Martin delivers a sombre post-match presser. Not just celebrating in style, but also giving him absolutely no reason to get the needle.
Grimsby v Doncaster.
Huge game at the bottom of League Two this weekend.
Much bigger than the table currently implies.
Everyone down there should be working to the assumption that Steve Cotterill will get Forest Green going.
Given their pedigree, resources and recent data,
For context, Neil Dewsnip is Steven Schumacher's old PE teacher going back 30 years.
A couple of Argyle fans mentioned in the replies on my Schuey piece that him and Dewsnip had fallen out shortly before Stoke came in.
So now I'm dying to know: is this banter or beef?
Scott Lindsey has been playing a blinder in his post-match interviews lately.
Setting Crawley up for something extraordinary.
Creating an improbable reality for his players to step into.
A reality that aligned with almost nobody outside of the club.
To mentally prepare an
Btw, that flag on the back of the new England shirt.
Nike knew exactly what they were doing.
It shouldn't matter, but it does.
Not to me. Not to you maybe.
But to many people, because of the times we live in.
When a section of society is dealing with high uncertainty, it
Here's a good tweet from which to draw some key distinctions about fatigue as it relates to football.
The current situation at Newcastle is a great case study.
Two years ago, the Magpies lost at home to Cambridge in the FA Cup.
They were second bottom of the Premier League
@foxpunter
They are trained athletes and on average run 10k a match. Pathetic excuse. Cyclists ride 200k every day on the tours and do you hear them moan
That Ederson pass into Bernardo yesterday 🙈😅
Every time he does something outrageous like that, he gives me a moment with my dad. Something I'm always extremely grateful for.
My old man was an ISTJ. A cautious, hard-working, dutiful man who led a simple life and forever
Getting to know Des
#1
Warning: my exposure to Des Buckingham is less than 2 hours of podcast interviews.
This is NOT proper typing, in much the same way that speed dating is not proper dating.
So the following patterns are, as yet, unconfirmed.
You want to be seeing these
A word also for
@AndyBayes
.
This is a brilliant, brilliant interview.
I've built up a decent archive of Ryan Lowe interviews for profiling purposes and this is the best by far.
The whole exchange is built on trust and comfort.
The question that leads to the much talked-about
Personality-wise, it's easy to see why Ilicali was seduced by Rosenior, an intuitive deep-thinker who wants to play pure possession-based football.
There's no ceiling on his ambitions and both men have openly set a Premier League target with little talk of patience.
Unai Emery - the ups and downs of a Lead Blast
Here's a great exhibit for a long-standing belief I have about Unai Emery - when it comes to pre-match preparation, he's second to none.
In terms of tactics and logistics, accounting for the strengths and weaknesses of a specific
Getting to know Des
#2
Here's a much longer clip but an extended anecdote that reveals quite a lot.
Here, he explains a team meeting where he asked a player to bring his mobile phone and use it in front of others to test if they would respond in accordance with standards they
How much can a career in Futsal serve a manager in the 11-a-side game with a League One middleweight like Lincoln City?
If you’re the sort of person who leads by emotional criteria and learns via real-world experience, the answer is probably not a lot.
If you’re Michael
But the bond between Rosenior and Ilicali is what fascinates.
Ilicali is a romantic. Rosenior took his hazy dream and turned it into a vivid picture.
Together, they will dream on and attack next season with scant regard for what the market says... 33/1 outright, 10/1 promotion.
Let's be honest, this is what football is all about. Needle narratives.
I remember sitting in the main stand at Field Mill for a Mansfield v Burton game when I was doing a feature on Gary Rowett for
@FourFourTwo
.
Palmer was up front for Stags that day. August 2014. Got dogs
When a manager enthuses this much about food, he's probably a Feeler (F), not a Thinker (T).
It's not an absolute rule that you can take to the bank, but it's probably an 80/20.
Food is a core element of the human experience that forms connection, so it's something to get
16 goals in a week for Lincoln.
“I think it‘s us now,” says Michael Skubala. “This is how we play.”
Much talk of intensity and aggression.
But surely this hot streak is down to more than the Imps just ‘wanting it more’ than the opposition.
My guess is that Skubala, after a
How much can a career in Futsal serve a manager in the 11-a-side game with a League One middleweight like Lincoln City?
If you’re the sort of person who leads by emotional criteria and learns via real-world experience, the answer is probably not a lot.
If you’re Michael
I have a theory about Mauricio Pochettino and why his managerial returns are diminishing, despite mounting experience at the highest level.
Pochettino is a Decider (fixated with people, not things) and he is also tribe above self, comfortably positioning himself at the top of
You always knew Troy Deeney as a manager would be different but it's hard to come up with a single convincing narrative about what's actually going on here.
It's a messy situation and I don't have nearly enough background on Deeney or the situation at Forest Green.
What I do
Seen a fair few people share the transcript of what Troy Deeney said about Dabo, here's the audio for those interested - sounds even harsher hearing it. You're meant to support your players, not publicly shame them. What happened to the importance of mental health
@T_Deeney
??
Seeing as though
@NTT20Pod
has drummed up some interest in the 4-match xG ratio tables, here's how the whole of the EFL looks ahead of the midweek action...
Lee Bowyer stopped the rot of dropping points on the back of quick turnarounds at Walsall. He made four changes to the team that beat Doncaster and the Addicks ran out 2-0 winners again.
This graphic (excluding Checkatrade Trophy games) tells the story...
Nigel Clough pulling no punches about where he thinks Mansfield's game against Bradford was won and lost.
"I should have brought Kellan Gordon back in. I knew Elliott Hewitt and Charles Vernam were good friends from their time together at Grimsby, and it looked like it."
😬
There was an incredible response to the Birmingham post the other day about the different managerial styles of John Eustace and Wayn Rooney, so I joined
@chris_skudder
for a video chat yesterday to unpack some of the dynamics a bit more...
New Blues Zoom, joined by football manager ‘personality profiler’ Mike Holden, aka
@foxpunter
author of excellent post on impact of Rooney start and future at
#bcfc
💥 ➡️
Graham Potter on the Championship: "This is probably the only league in the world where, with 15 minutes to go, the opposition get a goal to make it 4-1 and there's a little bit of belief in the stadium that something could happen."
If this hadn't been Jon Moss' last ever game and he hadn't been routinely ridiculed over the past few weeks, then surely VAR sends him to the screen to review that penalty decision.
£170m game and they appoint the ref on sentiment rather than merit. Bizarre.
However, control was evident in only 5 defeats from 25 matches after the World Cup break. Remove the standout top 4 from that sample and it was 2 defeats in 21 (W7 D12).
Upgrade the squad and raise the possession quota, you probably turn a chunk of those draws into wins.
Got something lined up on Guardiola tomorrow. But this is ace.
For all the talk of his influence on the game of terms of style of play, this is the true essence of Guardiola the manager.
It’s not logic that makes his teams so hungry to go and get the ball back, it’s this.
His
Ante-post: BRISTOL CITY
• Is Ashton Gate becoming a fortress?
• Why are the Cider Army more satisfied with their progress than most neutrals?
• Should they be in the play-off conversation?
• What does Pearson add in the way of novelty this season?
#BristolCity