The best buys never feel good.
The best sells always give you pause.
Your counterparty isn’t just the person on the other side of the trade.
It’s also yourself.
During periods of continued strength, sometimes it’s better to keep betting on the fastest horse.
Your laggards might be behind because there’s no mindshare, not because it’s undervalued.
It's not often you find a mispriced asset that's at the intersection of two sectors that can change the world.
Ambitious roadmap, fat liquidity, smooth token swap, no "B/S" taxes + acknowledged by the leaders of their respective sectors as a real need for muh decentralization.
Over the next couple weeks, I’ll share some random anecdotes about what I’ve been doing over the past two years whilst absent from Twitter/X.
Here’s the first:
Sometimes it’s hard seeing the forest 🌳🌳🌳 from the trees 🌳.
People conflate success with luck, but they won't understand the amount of round trips you had to endure.
Critics won't understand the mental gymnastics you play on yourself to even stand a chance.
Your journey from 0 to 100x is not a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Ask them to try.
Sell everything next time I come back if you don't want to be poor.
This has a 💯 success rate, anon.
BTW, Jurassic Park 🦖 will be making a comeback.
The first 2 editions in 2022 had millions of impressions + 1000s of RTs.
DM if there's a project you'd like interviewed.
Bountiful airdrops have the least eyes on them and ambiguous instructions.
Emerging chains also have less sophisticated actors and wash traders, making you a big fish in a small pond.
Go where nobody is looking.
First it'll lonely, then eventually, you're an early adopter.
It might be hard to hear, but your chats going radio silent is the sound of time-based capitulation and bottoms forming.
When everyone's faith wanes, even your own, it's time to pay attention again.
The hat stays on.
People keep wanting to find the next ___ but sometimes there just isn’t.
20M shitters hitting 100M works right now but when everyone thinks it’s a risk free trade, a rude awakening awaits.
All roads lead somewhere, perhaps there’s a hat there.
Sometimes doing less is more.
Now your conviction gets tested as the tug and pull for liquidity takes shape across multiple ecosystems.
Sideliners looking for discounted entries on recent launches gets their chance as they retest major levels whilst others sell it all for the shiny new toy with high FDV.
@ThinkingUSD
95% of its trading volume is on CEXs. I think you’ll find it illuminating when you compare the liquidity of many of their peers with similar MCAPs having 90% less liquidity on chain.
The Bitcoin halving is a big Schelling Point for crypto, but what precedes and succeeds it will test you.
Don't lose it all before the market becomes more favourable.
I'm seeing too many people lose it all before the fun even starts.
Zoom out, fren.
Then zoom out again.
There's so many ways to win in crypto in 2024.
Let go of your bias and forget about your ego and ask yourself this:
"Do you want to be rich, or do you want to be right?"
They're not mutually exclusive.
The only thing that matters is your P&L.
Only five memes have ever crossed the 1B threshold.
Two in 2021, one in 2022 and two in 2023.
There may be a few candidates from the Q4 class of 2023 that have a chance.
I’m hardly an expert at memetic culture, but at least in the X/CT echo chamber, they have been legitimized.
It’s why you never sell it all at the top and it’s why even if you time the bottom, you’ll never buy as much as you want.
The sooner you realize your own logical fallacies, the better prepared you’ll be during the forthcoming bull run.
Right now, this is just the appetizer.
Days like today can be sobering, but also an opportunity.
Every narrative feels right when it’s up only.
Now ask yourself if those narratives still feel right to you when everything is equally discounted?
It’s much easier figuring out what you believe in when you’re down bad.
SOL 9,783,358,967.63
ARB 5,675,349,643.62
BSC 4,962,978,343.97
POLYGON 5,386,303,356.78
BASE 5,006,434,314.90
CANTO 9,164,964,132.681
ETH 3,972,006,809.15453
Are there any interesting projects I should interview for the forthcoming edition of Jurassic Park 🦖?
Drop them in comments or DM and I'll reach out to them, no matter big or small.
Got a few projects joining the 3rd edition cohort that I'm really excited for.
I’m feeling more energized now knowing this is so much more collaborative and “real” than it was in 2017 and seeing people with enthusiasm so evergreen is exciting.
Maybe, we’ve only just begun.
Seeing a lot of confusion on Canada’s inclusion rate changes on capital gains.
A few thoughts and notes:
- You’re NOT taxed at 66%, that’s the inclusion rate of your profits that’s taxable against your marginal tax bracket.
- Your capital gains are then taxed at the federal
Communities will test their mettle as the rotatoors and profit maxis drop their grails down like an elevator.
NGL, it’s exciting times and I feel aliveeeeee.
We are conditioned. We’ve learned being comfortable while things are uncomfortable and we are so far right on the risk curve that it can often seem foreign, benign, and crazy to those that haven’t endured the peaks and valleys, let alone the cliff dives and elevators down.
So I bet 10% and it wasn’t enough. But I knew the fear was real, the psychological warfare internally was tangible.
“I’ll go all in if it drops to XXX levels.”
No, you won’t.
The hardest and best buys are hardly ever satisfying.
People paying a 10% spot premium on SOL as they rotate and liquidity gets vaporized from everything else.
Would imagine this arb closes when the bridge is due.
Weekend PA might be choppy, will be interesting to see how the former flavour of the weeks perform when things settle.
The belief system (or lack thereof as degenerates) that we have was born through going to hell and back. Many of us came here from other disciplines and learned this on our own terms, and the journey was often harrowing and humbling.
Keen to see how this plays out.
IMO, there’s been at least a couple memes launched recently that have legitimate chances becoming generationally and culturally relevant but that now seems at risk as the liquidity black hole wreaks havoc on multiple ecosystems.
Just to clarify, I don’t have a particular leaning, just that 1) these are exceptional circumstances and 2) they’re occurring at higher velocity, but despite that, it’s only a handful.
Be careful with exhuberance, but we don’t control memetics, the ideas shape their own life.
PA often runs in concert with $TIA but will move more like an elastic band at 8.5x lower mcap and 15x lower FDV.
Do you smell the rotation?
Muh modularity.
Muh mindshare.
I hope this doesn’t take seven years for some to realize the opportunity, but also reminded of the fact that it took us 2,555 days and that’s now just a journey to reflect on.
Even with cheaper fees, you can’t fork communities and cults, or can you?
Maybe you can if you have eco stimmies, points, implied airdrops and virtually free wash trading.
“You get a block, you get a block, and you get a block!”
Network effects of this can be huge, everywhere.
Personally, I’ve given much of my time to my TradFi and normie friends trying to onboard them, to educate them and have often felt defeated being unable to make any headway with converting them.
I’ve tried for years and years and the hit rate is remarkably low.
It’s only recently I’ve been able to reconcile this fact and realize that that seven year advantage is more than just being well capitalized, building networks, social capital, etc.
@TheFlowHorse
Hardly surprising, but I hope most never have to experience this type of exuberance first hand to realize how much of the liquidity gets sucked dry from alts when the big boys go on runs.
It's a humbling experience.
During the last week of Dec 2022, the whole world collectively agreed it was all over.
I remember vividly that $SOL tapped $8 and my economist and finance friends were sharing macro doom articles to me every single day.
So while I’ve felt deflated at times, I realize now, to some degree, that we are ambassadors to the industry and can help people in a more productive way.
During the first week of January, I came to a realization that my immediate biases weren’t aligned with my long term conviction and beliefs, yet had a real difficult time fixing this divergence despite my former, degeneracy, high risk appetite.
Did I believe we’ll have another bull run? Yes.
Did I think it might happen in 2024 and 2025? Yes.
Was I aware that $SOL captured a lot of dev mindshare and potentially, bottomed? Yes.
But, was I scared of the macro environment? Yes.
@DJclicker77
@harryhendrix27
@ThinkingUSD
@blknoiz06
I don’t understand this take.
There’s CEX tokens with nary any DEX liquidity at all?
What sane person slams a full market sell on a DEX when they can do the same on a CEX and capture most of its notional value?
Why is a token’s liquidity solely defined by its 6th largest
@VentureCoinist
One thing I’ve found very hard to reconcile is that the vast majority of my friends with good jobs and savings/trad portfolios cannot recalibrate or adjust their aptitude for risk. Despite onboarding many, the ones who’re MORE successful are the least likely converts.
@TheFlowHorse
I think general notion is that too soft or too hard is bad for spine and posture. Another consideration is whether you’re a back or side sleeper.
@Buy100ozSilver
That’s the inclusion rate, so 66% of your profit is taxed at your tax bracket, but only qualifies if you’re 250k+. Still madness though.
@VentureCoinist
Oh absolutely, I used to find this defeating but I totally understand it now tbh. We’re so conditioned and so far right on the risk curve that it’s probably foreign to most, especially to colleagues who’ve made their success in other ways and know they’re good at it.
@TheCryptoDog
@tradeboicarti16
You’ll have to pay the exit tax, so when leaving, consider all assets you have at fair market value as a deemed disposition. Will get you one way or another.
@crossedentropy
I’ve rarely sat down and reflected on this too. Somewhat surprised if I’m honest, but that’s when I realize these people are 2016 versions of us, not even 2017… 🤯
@allenjanvalie
@TheCryptoDog
@tradeboicarti16
You’ll need to become a non-resident (you’re still a citizen) and pay your “exit tax” but yes, presumably you can live elsewhere and not pay Canadian taxes. Lots of places have golden visas or support donations/investment in kind for a passport or residency.
@VentureCoinist
Made a quick thread about this when I came back on CT.
The requests from friends to onboard them have reached escape velocity since, but admittedly, few have converted still to levels I expected, but the job’s not done.