I trained as an accountant with a big 4 and worked for c7 years as an external auditor for several FTSE 100/250 and small caps.
The P/E ratio doesn't mean anything to me. Profit could be made up. I don't trust anything other than cash. This is where the focus on FCF comes from.
Dec 22 Portfolio Review
ISA ⬇️1.5%, FY22⬆️81.3%
SIPP⬆️0.5%,FY22⬆️49.0%
Held back this month by an oversized position in
#THS
. Beat the FTSE All-Share by some margin this year.
Happy New Year to you all! Thanks for all your kindness and support. See you in 2023.
#PTAL
wowzers. So much to write about. 10% share buybacks this year, 13% divi yield, divi to be paid quarterly. EBITDA for 2022 $274m. Market cap only £330m. Bonds fully repaid. Excellent stuff!
2023 Portfolio Update
ISA ⬆️31.9%
SIPP ⬆️12.7%
It has been probably been the toughest year since 2017 for me personally, learnt a lot and I hope to not repeat my mistakes next year.
Happy New Year to all! I am exited for what 2024 has to offer.
Nov 22 - Portfolio Update
ISA ⬆️10.1%, YTD ⬆️82.9%
SIPP⬆️4.5%, YTD ⬆️48.4%
This improved significantly over the last two days. I hope to close 2022 on a high. Bring on December!
#PTAL
Generated $100m in Net operating income in Q2 2022. Market Cap £340m. I don't even need to read rest of the report.
Net cash of over $70m. Goodness me. I don't recall reading better quarterly numbers for any of my holdings ever. Bravo 👏👏
End of a crazy year in the stock market. My strategy of investing in companies with a high FCF yield and a very low EV/FCF (<3) worked really well in a year which was difficult for most methods of investing.
I have no reason to change my approach. Cash is King and will always be.
#PTAL
Market cap £395m
EV £330m
Annual FCF > $200m.
EV/FCF <1.5
Its incredible what they have achieved this year and now on track to achieve next year.
At 20k bopd, FCF will exceed $250m p.a.
2021 performance in a snapshot
ISA YTD +27.7%
SIPP YTD +70.7% (I wish it was the other way round).
Unlike most, I tend to take riskier positions on my SIPP (I am 32) with major contributions from
#PTAL
and
#TEK
I target 13% p.a. so pleased with what I have achieved. 🤞for 2022.
August 22 Portfolio Update
ISA ⬆️10.9%, YTD ⬆️65.6%
SIPP⬆️7.5%, YTD ⬆️42.6%
These numbers were looking a lot better till yesterday morning. Again more luck than skill. True test begins Sept onwards.
Merry Xmas all! I hope the markets have treated everyone well in December and taken away some of the pain from earlier in the year. I really enjoy interacting with you all on this platform and learn something new every day.
Happy Holidays! enjoy some time off with your families.
#PTAL
At $70 oil ($99 right now) and 18k bopd, annual netbacks c$197m (£164m) or 55% of current market cap.
At $70 oil and 22k bopd (which they can produce now once ONP resumes), netbacks would be c$240m (£200m) or 67% of current market cap.
Buy value, ignore the noise.DYOR
#PTAL
now has reserves equivalent to what
#SQZ
would have post merger. Arguably
#PTAL
reserves more valuable as all oil. A £400m market cap us no justice.
One of my top picks to do well this year. DYOR
#PTAL
I have been following this share for a year and a half now and I have never been more excited about its prospects than now.
20k bopd capacity
No reliance on ONP/Barges improving
Relationship with Locals the best it has been
Net cash
Brent $96/bl
SH returns coming soon
End of another crazy month. Long it may continue
ISA - April +10.5%, YTD +37.1%
SIPP - April +8%, YTD +40%
Almost fully invested atm and there is the risk.
#PTAL
in their updated slide deck are forecasting year end net cash of $138m. That is almost a third of the current market cap. Next year onwards its fireworks. They get to $156m FCF p.a. on 20k bopd on $75 oil. That is 40% of current market cap
#justsaying
#PTAL
Averaging 18.8k bopd for the first 9 days of April (170k bls produced). Now we have had continuous barging since 20th of February. That is now 47 days of uninterrupted barging. They have finally cracked this.
Exceptional and Severely undervalued this company. DYOR
Three rules (3rd one is breakable depending on circumstances) that have helped me not lose money (and make modest gains):
1-) Don't invest in pre-revenue stocks
2-) Invest in EV/FCF of <3
3-) Invest in companies in a strong net cash position
No need to chase🚀,invest in quality
Oct 22 Portfolio Update
ISA ⬆️3.14%, YTD ⬆️72.7%
SIPP⬇️1.03%, YTD⬆️43.9%
October was a real grind but I am excited by the opportunities in O&G ,
#TEK
and
#THS
at present.
#PTAL
MCap = £369m
Net WC Surplus at 30th Sept = $75m (£62m)
Q4 est Production = 930k bls
Q4 est FCF = $28m
est Net WC Surplus = $103m (£85m)
EV at 1st Jan c£284m
They can produce over 20k. If they avg that this year, FCF of$156m at $75 oil. EV/FCF of c2 & Buybacks on the agenda
#PTAL
Record Quarter as expected. Q2 total dividend of 2.5c vs 1.5c expected (18% annualised yield). Buybacks continue, forecast maintained despite low river levels. Quarterly FCF of $37m and EBITDA over $70m 👏👏
EV of c$420m. Excellent value stock on an unbelievable yield
It is important to spread this message. Let the British public know the true cost of net zero. We are giving up on our competitive whilst countries like India and China must be laughing at us.
Net zero is a scam.
ANDREW NEIL: 'UK industry has been paying prices for electricity 60 to 80 per cent higher than French or German industry: £113 per megawatt hour in the UK versus £61 in France and Germany.
In the first two decades of this century, British electricity prices doubled, even when
#PTAL
" the shareholder distributions announced today can be maintained at oil as low as $60/bl and production as low as 15k bopd" - PTAL CFO
Make your own mind. I am not selling here. Added a few more at 43p just now. Cheers! 🥂
#PTAL
$440m market cap, 16% being returned to shareholders in the form of divi + buybacks. Divi yield easily 12%+ paid quarterly.
Obviously valuation and metrics don't matter in the current market, but I am sticking to basics and increasing positions in high yielding shares.
Oct 22 Portfolio Update
ISA ⬆️3.14%, YTD ⬆️72.7%
SIPP⬇️1.03%, YTD⬆️43.9%
October was a real grind but I am excited by the opportunities in O&G ,
#TEK
and
#THS
at present.
#PTAL
Only a matter of time before the march towards 50p+ begins. They will release their production guidance for the year on 19th I believe. It is a cash printing machine atm. The balance sheets looks really strong. DYOR.
#ENQ
Let me just explain to the non-accountants on what EV/FCF means (at least to me). I use that as the number of years it would take for a business to convert market cap into net cash (assuming no SH returns or other acquisitions in the meanwhile). For me that number for
#ENQ
Oil approaching $80/bl and share here are sub 13p (<£250m market cap). Should easily do over $200m in FCF this year. EV/FCF of c3. Starts saving $80m p.a. on FPSO costs from next year. We should have a divi introduced this year.
DYOR
#PTAL
£400m market cap, c£300m EV. Broker anticipates it to end FY23 with $265m net cash (excl. the $60m receivable from Petroperu).
There is no need to say much more. I have added today.
May 22 Update
ISA ⬆️14.1% , YTD ⬆️ 51.2%
SIPP⬆️2.8%, YTD ⬆️42.8%
Not sure how the month ended up like this after a brutal start.
I have trimmed a lot of positions today to lock in some gains as not in the mood to give all of this away.
Not expecting any 🎆 in June.
#PTAL
yielding c11% and will also buy back shares this year (worth c$12m). Producing over 20k bopd for the last 70+ days, no debt, net working capital surplus of $71m, intend to distribute anything over a min threshold of $60m. A very sensible approach imo,this is screaming value
Tories are bad but a Labour govt will be 10x worse. These guys talking about BP profits vs windfall tax don't have a clue. I cannot in my right mind vote for Labour.
BP has just announced profits of £23,000,000,000
These record profits are the direct result of record energy bills for ordinary people.
We need to hike the Windfall Tax so that North Sea oil and gas giants do not make a single penny in excess profits from higher bills.
Avoid pre-production plays, will save you a lot of money in the long run. The hit rate on AIM is less than 5%. Plenty of companies in production, paying a nice divi and potential for growth. There are no short cuts to success.
#PTAL
is now basically a 20k bopd prdocuer with a capacity of 26k bopd with net cash of $55m+ net working capital surplus of $30m, paying a 11% divi and commencing buybacks. Also increased their FCF guidance by $30m without increasing production guidance(which I expect in Q2)
Q1 22 Returns
ISA +26.6%
SIPP +32%
Off 3% from ATHs earlier this week due to a
#BRD
shit show (-0.5%) & weakness in
#JSE
(-2%)
The biggest challenge is to not lose these gains and look to improve.
April is a key month. Updates due from almost all my holdings. Mindset is key.
#PTAL
new broker note:
On our current production and capex estimates (based on the 2P reserve case) and using US$90/bbl Brent, we forecast free cash flow of ~US$430 mm over 2022-2023. This would result in the company’s net cash position being higher the current market cap by YE23
Sep 22 Returns
ISA ⬆️3.9%, YTD ⬆️69.6%
SIPP⬆️2.3%, YTD ⬆️44.9%
This month was a grind, not sure how I ended on a positive note but today helped a lot.
#AVAP
was a portfolio saver this month.
Focus is back on PGMs and Energy.
Have a good weekend all!
#PTAL
⬆️5%
Brent at $94/bl
13H coming online anytime now which would increase production capability to 20k bopd
Water levels improving which would help with barges
Already strong net cash with a £350m market cap
My largest position and I keep buying whenever I can.
DYOR
#SQZ
This is what my forecast looks like.
Very close to 0 EV again in Dec 24.
When gas prices start to fall (I have assumed 130p for 24,Tailwind will contribute to over 40% of group profits). The deal almost pays for itself in 2 years.
This is very rough, excludes interest etc
#PTAL
Q1 Update expected in 2 weeks. Well 14H Update could be within days. Brent touching $86/bl. Barges lined up nicely. Share buybacks to commence soon, first divi could be paid as early as June. This is the perfect storm.
DYOR
#PTAL
with the dividends/buybacks commencing in 2 months time and this being a £400m market cap, c£300m EV for over 105m of 2P reserves, this is screaming opportunity to me. I added more today between 45.1p and 46.3p.
DYOR
#PTAL
⬆️5%. Brent at $92/bl.
Probably the cheapest oiler on the market atm
Production restrictes due to barges availability. Despite that throwing some solid numbers. c65k barrels produced in the last 4 days
DYOR
#THS
there we go. FY EPS (excluding Karo uplift) c42c (35p) per share. PE 2.9, cash adjusted PE 2.28
EPS including Karo uplift is 54c (45p) per share. Note that FY23 production guidance already higher than FY22.
Find me a cheaper diversified miner. Take a bow
@tharisa_sa
#PTAL
the £370m market cap is an absolute joke. They are buying back shares and yielding c12% atm. The Q2 financial results next month will be the best they have ever reported with record production and possibly upward revision in guidance.
DYOR
07/12/23 22:01:20 GMT - New Production PetroPeru Data for
#PTALDATA
- see
Average Monthly Production: 17568.70 BOPD
Rolling 7 Day Average: 17768.86 BOPD
Netback assumption: $60 USD/BBL
Annualized NetBack based on rolling average: $389.14 MM USD
#PTAL
Looks ready for a move up. Expect news on 14H coming online within days followed by share buyback announcement and then the Q1 update followed by divi. Firing on all cylinders atm.
DYOR
#THS
Well done to all my fellow investors who have patiently waited for this to come good. I am delighted with the share performance of late which is certainly helping the portfolio.
Quality stocks rarely let you down in the long run
#buyquality
.
My annual reminder to all that there are plenty of revenue generating profitable companies to invest in. There is no need to chase stars and invest in pre-revenue or high risk binary trades. Be sensible about risk/reward and don't gamble. Avoid AIM pre-revenue/profit crap.
#PTAL
Its baffling how this is still a £430m mkt cap. We have just seen management increase FCF guidance by $30m to $85m for the year and its almost clear that production guidance is likely to be increased which would increase the FCF further.
Warrants expire mid-June. Not long
#PTAL
is now basically a 20k bopd prdocuer with a capacity of 26k bopd with net cash of $55m+ net working capital surplus of $30m, paying a 11% divi and commencing buybacks. Also increased their FCF guidance by $30m without increasing production guidance(which I expect in Q2)
#PTAL
New Auctus now. They think the company will still hold >50% of market cap in net working capital surplus even after paying an additional $56m in divis by y/e 2024.
#PTAL
FY results a week from now. Bond getting paid back in full tomorrow. Debt free with a fully diluted £325m market cap. They are averaging 20k bopd+ for the first 19 days of March. The company continues to generate significant cash vs market cap and is in the best state ever.
#PTAL
offering a 15% divi yield at the current 14k bopd restrained production is actually remarkable. They should be back to 20k bopd end of this month and beyond.
Pretty much all my major holdings operate on a EV/FCF <3. It is the most important metric for me and the first one I look for when deciding where to invest.
That list includes:
#THS
#PTAL
#HBR
#SQZ
#SEPL
#BISI
#JSE
#KIST
So many options out there atm.
It seems like I have offended a lot of people by selling one gas play for the other.
I manage and talk my own book. I have limited cash and if I find better opportunities in the ever moving markets I try to take advantage.
Please do not follow me when I buy or sell anything.
I have sold all my
#KIST
(580p to 603p) and put it all on to
#SQZ
(374p). It is a judgement call but at this point in time I prefer a 50% + net cash backing. Will re-assess
#KIST
after their interim report.
Since I can't understand the valuation anomaly between
#THS
and
#SLP
despite both operators operating in the same area, producing the same output (in different quantities), I have done a rough analysis on their financials for the next 3 years.
I guess its time to switch off and not check the portfolio for the next few months. I can't beat the market atm. The best thing I can do is do nothing. Easier said than done but will give it a go.
#PTAL
480k bls produced in 23 days (20,860 bopd). Debt free as of last week. Brent on the up. The perfect storm before FY results on Thursday this week.
DYOR
I keep reading a lot of investment gurus advising against averaging down. For me, it really depends on
1)Your conviction level on the stock
2)EV relative to FCF generation
I have made a lot of money averaging down on my holdings and it worked for me 9 times out of 10. Not advice.
Elon Musk got his $56bn pay package approved.
On the other hand, the Labour party will try to raise just £1.2bn by destroying the local O&G industry and risking 100,000 jobs.
Great stuff!
#PTAL
Q2 results and an investor presentation on the 8th of August. We already know Q2 was the best qtr in the company's history and they avgd over 19k bopd. With brent at $84, mcap of c$510m, net cash of $75m(at 30 June), 11% yield and buybacks, this could be on the move. DYOR
#PTAL
I am a fan of the balance sheet now. I certainly believe
#PTAL
has never been cheaper. What an opportunity this is to accumulate. Its not about how much FCF they are gna make this year, its about how much they can make over 15 years of continuous production. DYOR
#PTAL
Fully diluted market cap still £390m only. They will be distributing c22% of this (c£81m) back to the shareholders in the form of divi and buybacks this year.
NPV of future cash flow is c150% higher than the current share price.
#justsaying
Jeremy Hunt could have avoided these job losses had he agreed to put a floor on EPL. No one else to blame.
If Labour get their way and do what they claim, the whole industry will have to find another job.
#SQZ
#HBR
Petrotal continue to deliver >20k bopd. With 40$ netbacks
#PTAL
are on track to deliver 300m$ operational cash flow and 100m$ FCF (+ petroperu payments). That is a >20% FCF yield despite having some growth Capex. Divi/buybacks should be supportive for share price in next months.
Portfolio update - July 22
ISA ⬆️15.5%, YTD ⬆️54.7%
SIPP⬇️0.04%,YTD ⬆️35.1%
Really strange month but extremely pleased to have reversed the June losses in ISA. Thanks to
#SEPL
#JSE
#TEK
#AEP
#PDL
SIPP suffered due to
#PTAL
but was looking way worse at one point 😀
#SQZ
The 75% tax rate is already in the price. It has also made
#SQZ
less sensitive to a fall in oil price. Just playing around with my spreadsheet. A $80 avg for oil and 110p/therm will generate c£410m net cash in 2023. A $70 avg only reduces it to £388m 🤷♂️
Love the risk/reward
#PTAL
averaging 19.8k bopd in the first 16 days of May so far. Smashing it. That full year guidance will have to be revised upwards soon.
Ex-div end of this month for 1.5c quarterly divi. DYOR
#THS
This is what our forecast earnings on spot look like in 18 months time (1st half of the table is current earnings).
c£214m net profit p.a. (equivalent to current EV).
Market Cap =£293m
If they build Karo on budget and on time, we will get to 200p+ in an instant. DYOR
#PTAL
c1.3m barrels of oil produced over the last 2 months. They increased their FCF guidance by $30m for this year a couple of weeks back. The share price action since resulted in a decrease of $60m in market cap. Doesn't make sense. Divis from June (12% yield), buybacks anyday
#PTAL
production guidance of 14k to 15k bopd in 23 which is conservative as takes into account 5% social unrest downtime, no access to ONP, constrained dry low river season (Q3 to Q4).
Love their distribution policy. Will maintain $50m cash and distribute (buybacks+ divi) rest.
Honest advice. The world is not coming to an end. The markets are irrational and that's where the opportunity lies. I invest/trade for days like these. Down days are when the money is made. Spot the bargains and buy what you can.
#PTAL
how often can you buy a 20k bopd producer (with capacity to produce 25k+) for under $500m market cap and a EV of c$430m?
#PTAL
avging over 20k bopd since 20th February (3 months + now). Ex div today and watch our for that production guidance increase.
#SQZ
Update my forecast with the following assumptions:
2023 - 100p/therm and $75/bl
2024- 80p/therm and $70/bl
Get a EV of <£75m at Dec 2024. If the deal doesn't go through, the EV at Dec 2024 won't be much different and from Jan 25
#SQZ
much better off with the deal vs without
#PTAL
now 535k bls in 26 days (20577 bopd)
We have now had full scale production since the 20th of February. Those February barges should be back in by mid April. We finally appear to have a solution.
Stronger buy than ever before imo. DYOR
#PTAL
480k bls produced in 23 days (20,860 bopd). Debt free as of last week. Brent on the up. The perfect storm before FY results on Thursday this week.
DYOR
#PTAL
so brent at $102/bl, so why is
#PTAL
priced at brent < $60/bl.
Dare I say we will be a Zero EV business within 11 months if brent stays where it is. That is just to show how valuable each day with brent at this level is.
On a forward PE of c1 🤷♂️
Portfolio Update - Apr 23
Better month in difficult markets
ISA ⬆️5.1%, YTD⬆️17.2%
SIPP⬆️1.7%, YTD ⬆️10.1%
#CAML
ex-div this week so that would be reflected next month so numbers better than they read.
Not happy with so many bank holidays in May🤷♂️. Good weekend all!
#PTAL
The Canadians are driving the share price up. Lots of moving parts here, expect an update on 14H next week. Would have preferred buybacks at 40p vs 50p but still a value add if you believe broker targets (130p+).
DYOR
A new research note from Auctus today: “The shares continue to offer deep value combined with reserves & cashflow growth. Also, the Co could return US$100-130 mm to shareholders in 2023”. The firm retain a £1.50 TP on the shares.
#SQZ
Decent Update, Excellent value at the current prices for a company averaging 43k boepd with 55% gas and 45% oil. Nice to note Tailwind avgd 19k boepd in January with further upside coming. The combined unit at £920m market cap looks a lot better. DYOR
#PTAL
Brent at $93/bl. GBP:USD at 1:1.13 and
#PTAL
on sale for £390m market cap (EV £290m). Those oil revenues are worth 15% more when converted to GBP from 6 months ago. That is an equivalent to a $107/bl oil price in March 2022.
#justsaying
Are all quality posters on Fintwit taking a break? All I see these days is high risk pre-revenue stock ramps which actually puts me off this platform.
Hopefully that will change as we receive Q3/trading updates from companies that actually make money.
Until then 😴
#PTAL
I believe the share price will be well supported this year with the introduction of buybacks/divi. Social unrest/ONP/barging issues well captured in the conservative production guidance imo.
It is in my top 5 picks for this year. Lets see where this goes. DYOR
#PTAL
this is what I have been talking about. When you have the capacity to producer over 20k bopd, you can cover up for lost production (due to issue with barges/river levels etc) very quickly
First 21 days of the month were c100k bls in total
Last 7 days 103k bls
EV ⬇️further🔥
#SQZ
MCap - £780m
est. Net cash - £525m
EV= £255m
Adding £1.4m/day without using the enormous £525m cash pile. Once they use that the cash flow generation could be on another level. Regardless, I can't find a better risk/reward and this is my last tweet re-iterating that. DYOR
#PTAL
continuing its good run on an overall shit day today. Seeing encouraging posts about improving water levels which should really help increase those production numbers. 13H coming online soon. Brent holding strong, weak GBP, it is going to be a good Q4 and a smashing Q1 23.
#PTAL
I seriously believe that in a few months we will be looking back at the opportunity the current sp (41p) provided. A £358m market cap and a c£380m fully diluted market cap does no justice to:
a) value of oil in the group
b) balance sheet strength
c) production capacity
1/2
June has been a difficult month but I was looking at my trading history over the last 3 years. My portfolio was down in June in all 3 years but had a remarkable turnaround in the following months.
#SQZ
#CAML
#PTAL
#THS
all present unique opportunities. Lock in the divi.
DYOR
#PTAL
that is $35m in turnover in 22 days for a £320m market cap.
I don't care about what the chart says for either oil or
#PTAL
. The sp will catch up with fundamentals and when it does it will be in a flash.
Looking forward to Thursday next week. DYOR
03/24/23 13:58:19 GMT - New Production PetroPeru Data for
#PTALDATA
- see
Average Monthly Production: 20299.59 BOPD
Rolling 7 Day Average: 19501.86 BOPD
Netback assumption: $60 USD/BBL
Annualized NetBack based on rolling average: $427.09 MM USD
Feb-24 Portfolio Update
ISA YTD ⬆️ 15%
SIPP YTD⬆️10.4%
Star performers this year -
#CHRY
#TMT
#AXL
plus some decent sized trades in
#NXQ
#TENT
#AET
Worst performers -
#ASTO
#ENQ
No miners in my portfolio but got eyes on a few for a probable turn in cycle. Biggest play this
#PTAL
I firmly believe there is a major re-rate due here.
#PTAL
seems to have overcome all challenges they have faced over the year (including social unrest). They own an exceptional field with over 96m in 2P. Strong chance of upward revision to guidance with Q1 update. DYOR
#PTAL
Averaging 18.8k bopd for the first 9 days of April (170k bls produced). Now we have had continuous barging since 20th of February. That is now 47 days of uninterrupted barging. They have finally cracked this.
Exceptional and Severely undervalued this company. DYOR
#THS
Updated my spreadsheet based on current spot rates for PGM and Chrome. Annualised NPAT for mid-range of the production guidance (just from Tharisa Mine) over $200m (that is Net Profit After Tax).
Mkt Cap = £315m, EV at 31 Dec 22 = c£235m. Hard to find better numbers. DYOR
#PTAL
going great guns imo. The company has navigated through the worst and I think 2024 could be a great year for the share price despite the 14% divi yield.
Oct-23 Portfolio Update
ISA - YTD ⬆️14.3%
SIPP -YTD ⬆️2.5%
Just about surviving. Fear of the bear market held me back in some instances, could have done better.
Been a frustrating year so far,
#AVAP
,
#ENQ
,
#SNWS
were top performers this month, nothing else worth mentioning.