Eric Neyman @ericneyman Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

1 month

Every time a new LLM comes out, I ask it one question: What is the smallest integer whose square is between 15 and 30? So far, no LLM has gotten this right.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

1 month

@gcolbourn I did. 4 is not the right answer.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

1 month

@gcolbourn In my parlance, -4 is unambiguously smaller than 4 (and -10 is smaller still). I *think* this is the usual interpretation?

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

1 month

The answer (plug into ): Gur nafjre vf artngvir svir. Vs lbh guvax artngvir svir vfa'g "fznyyre" guna sbhe, abgr gung YYZf qba'g trg gubfr rira vs lbh ercynpr "fznyyrfg" jvgu "yrnfg".

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

1 month

Why is P(Newsom | not Biden) like 50%? That seems way way way too high to me?

Adam Ozimek

@ModeledBehavior

1 month

Biden down to 59% odds of being the dem nominee now

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

1 month

@TutorVals Yeah, I'm definitely not claiming that my question is evidence of LLMs being worse than humans. Humans also get this question wrong, as you point out!

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

1 month

@arivero @gcolbourn To be clear, I never claimed that -4 was the right answer :)

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

4 years

Just wrote a new blog post, about a sport called marble racing! In particular, I found that Jelle's Marble Runs ( @Jellesmarbles ) isn't entirely random -- marbles have a level of "skill"!

Jelle’s marbles have skill

Do you miss the pre-COVID excitement of watching sports? Are you bored right now, looking for some way to entertain yourself? Welcome to the world of Jelle’s Marble Runs. Round 1 of the 2020 …

ericneyman.wordpress.com

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

1 month

@saprmarks Yeah, most people do. Not really sure what skill I'm testing here -- carefulness or something?

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

1 month

Since this is going moral viral than I'm used to: I have a pretty cool blog, if I do say so myself!

Unexpected Values

A blog about math, philosophy, puzzles, politics, and more.

ericneyman.wordpress.com

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

2 months

It's not that I don't support meritocratic hiring (I do), but this name is clearly riffing on DEI, which is the sort of thing you do if you're trying to own the libs (an unvirtuous motivation).

Alexandr Wang

@alexandr_wang

2 months

Today we’ve formalized an important hiring policy at Scale. We hire for MEI: merit, excellence, and intelligence. This is the email I’ve shared with our @scale_AI team. ——————————————————— MERITOCRACY AT SCALE In the wake of our fundraise, I’ve been getting a lot of questions

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

6 months

On Wednesday, I defended my PhD thesis. For me, this was a major milestone: more significant than, say, college graduation. My thesis represents a culmination of research that I had done in and around grad school -- research that I had poured my heart and soul into.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

2 months

My response (on LessWrong)

Arjun Panickssery is in London

@panickssery

2 months

FiveThirtyEight just released their prediction that Biden has a 53% of winning the election Easy money on Polymarket if you believe this

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

7 months

Dividing two 8-digit numbers (if one is a multiple of the other) is easy! The answer is always between 1 and 9, and you can literally ignore everything besides the first two digits of each number. Like, what's 40762047/13587349? Obviously 3, since 40 is roughly 3*13.

Do Not @ Me, PhD

@UsingLyft

7 months

From athletics to intellectualism to just sheer resilience, I love seeing the peaks of human ability. That said what would be the athletic equivalent of a 6yr old dividing 2 8-digit numbers in their head? My first thought is like a 14 second 100m dash. No idea though

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

2 months

It's tempting to reference xkcd comics to explain things, but you need to remember that most people have only memorized the feldspar comic (and a few others, of course).

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

1 year

It's been a long time (over a year!) since my last blog post, but I finally have a new one!! It's called "How much do you believe your results?"

How much do you believe your results?

[Note: images may not load if you’re using the Wordpress app. Try opening this post in a browser, or reading it on LessWrong.] Thanks to Drake Thomas for feedback. I. Here’s a fun scatter plo…

ericneyman.wordpress.com

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

1 month

My (not very informed) guess is something like: Harris 50%, Newsom 20%, other random people (like Buttigieg and Whitmer) totaling 30% (but no one besides Harris and Newsom above 5%).

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

3 years

I just finished two papers that I'd been working on for a while! I'll preview the other one tomorrow, but today: "Are You Smarter Than a Random Expert? The Robust Aggregation of Substitutable Signals", with my advisor @algoclass (Tim Roughgarden) 🧵/20

Are You Smarter Than a Random Expert? The Robust Aggregation of...

The problem of aggregating expert forecasts is ubiquitous in fields as wide-ranging as machine learning, economics, climate science, and national security. Despite this, our theoretical...

arxiv.org

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

3 years

Just finished a paper with @algo_class ! Proper scoring rules, like log or Brier, incentivize an expert to report their true belief. But what if there are *multiple* experts? In that case they can collude to guarantee themselves a larger reward: (1/8)

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

4 years

I have a new blog post called "Alike minds think great". It's about the bias of overestimating the competence of people who think like you (and other things).

Alike minds think great

I. It is famously the case that almost everyone thinks they’re above average. Derek Sivers writes: Ninety-four percent of professors say they are better-than-average teachers.Ninety percent o…

ericneyman.wordpress.com

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

7 months

I think Nate Silver is unusually likely to understand EA and have good critiques. I don't anticipate agreeing with all or most of the critiques, but if I had to task someone with thinking carefully about EA and critiquing it, Nate would be near the top of my list.

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

7 months

I'm going to have quite a lot to say about effective altruism in the forthcoming book, much of it critical, but yeah it's extremely frustrating that the DC/NYC press tends to pick the worst possible vibes-based criticisms.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

3 years

@NateSilver538 Those sounds more like posteriors to me :P

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

2 years

I'm interning at Redwood right now. I think the work we're doing is *really cool*, I really like the team, and am generally having a great time. I think REMIX is gonna be great. Consider applying!

Neel Nanda

@NeelNanda5

2 years

I'm helping Redwood Research run REMIX, a 1 month mechanistic interpretability sprint where 25+ people to reverse engineer circuits in GPT-2 Small. This seems a great way to get experience exploring @ch402 's transformer circuits work. Apply by 13th Nov!

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

1 year

@depthsofwiki Here's a fun article!

List of mass panic cases - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

6 months

Lastly, I'm excited to say that I will be joining the Alignment Research Center full-time! The last chapter of my thesis -- Deductive Circuit Estimation -- is on some of the research I did while at ARC. I'm really looking forward to continuing this research.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

1 month

I've actually been making this exact argument about Biden for years now! (From Scott Alexander's latest post )

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

5 years

@juliagalef Seems like your tweet caused a perceptible change according to Google trends!

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

29 days

Last night at dinner, my housemates and I shared what we appreciated about America. Despite all its flaws, I'm a big America fan, and I love that I'm part of a community that also loves America.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

2 months

Today is the 10,000th day of my life! It'll be another 246 years until my next power of ten!

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

6 months

And I *am* proud of my thesis. It's called Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology, and while I can't share it until next month, I'll say a few words about it. "Bayesian epistemology" refers to the study of knowledge and uncertainty from a Bayesian standpoint: probabilities, etc.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

4 years

1 like = 1 unpopular opinion (none of these will be political). Capping this at, uh, 100, in case this goes viral or something, so I can keep my promise.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

3 years

Apparently I am doomed to play the role of corporate shill in my university EA group

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

6 months

I did finish quickly (3 1/2 years), but I put a lot of effort into writing and polishing my thesis -- more than I needed to in order to graduate. I was proud of the work that I had done, and wanted to be proud of my thesis.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

3 months

Re-upping this in light of recent developments in Florida

Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

4 years

Last year I wrote a blog post called "Meat is the new guns". I never published it because it wasn't that good. But the thesis was: there will be a culture war over meat in the coming decades, with conservatives being pro-meat and liberals being anti-meat.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

6 months

I want to thank my advisor @Tim_Roughgarden for guiding my through this journey. He's been incredibly supportive, and being advised by him has been a wonderful experience.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

3 months

In January, I defended my thesis, supervised by @Tim_Roughgarden . Here's my thread from shortly after the defense. Now I have a blog post explaining my research in more depth! (1/5)

Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

6 months

On Wednesday, I defended my PhD thesis. For me, this was a major milestone: more significant than, say, college graduation. My thesis represents a culmination of research that I had done in and around grad school -- research that I had poured my heart and soul into.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

6 years

@blairmagnet @davidstein65 Blair tops the competition at the Princeton University Math Competition (PUMaC)!

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

1 month

Is "ontology" the study of surjective functions?

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

5 years

@ne0liberal Have you considered having Bryan Caplan (of Open Borders) on to discuss his book The Case Against Education? Haven't read it but I hear he makes a compelling case against having lots and lots of people go to college.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

6 months

Again, I'm really surprised about how neglected some of the topics of my thesis are. They're super fascinating, and in some cases really important. And there's a bunch of low-hanging fruit, too! Important, tractable, and neglected, as the cool kids say :P

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

6 months

Just like algorithmic game theory is the application of the algorithmic lens to game theory, algorithmic Bayesian epistemology is the application of the algorithmic lens to Bayesian epistemology. And so my thesis is about how to be an *okay* Bayesian under real-world constraints.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

4 years

Last year I wrote a blog post called "Meat is the new guns". I never published it because it wasn't that good. But the thesis was: there will be a culture war over meat in the coming decades, with conservatives being pro-meat and liberals being anti-meat.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

2 months

. @AnthropicAI needs to explain its position on SB 1047: does it support or oppose the bill, and why?

Shakeel

@ShakeelHashim

2 months

Interesting to see Anthropic joining TechNet, the trade group opposing SB 1047. That means OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, Amazon, Apple, IBM, and Andreessen Horowitz all now belong to orgs opposing the bill. Hardly looking like regulatory capture!

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

24 days

@Scott_Wiener The GOP platform is really disconcerting. On the other hand, SB 1047 does a great job of prioritizing safety without unnecessarily inhibiting AI innovation, and should be a model for the country. Thank you for your work, Senator.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

6 months

Once I decided that I wouldn't go into academia (more below), I told some people that I wanted to just get my thesis done and finish quickly so I could have the PhD credential. But at some point I realized that this wasn't actually true. I actually cared more than that.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

3 years

@alyssamvance Regression to the mean, maybe? Like, maybe to get hired by the IAS most people need to get lucky (i.e. produce better research than you would on average given your skill level). And then they produce research equal to their skill level, which is worse.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

3 years

What attempts have been made at money-free prediction markets? Why haven't they become popular? [Asking because I'm considering working on making one. I have some reasons to think it might be preferable to Metaculus, which I'll write a blog post about soon.]

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

2 years

I super highly recommend Scott Garrabrant's ongoing "geometric rationality" sequence. I've been having lots of related thoughts, and it's wonderful to see a solid theoretical grounding for it.

Geometric Rationality - LessWrong

Geometric rationality is my name for a cluster of techniques and behaviors that tend to maximize the geometric expectation (or equivalently maximize the expected logarithm) of natural features (of...

www.lesswrong.com

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

10 months

OOMs stands for "Oodles and Oodles of Magnitude"

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

6 months

There are several other topics, including forecast elicitation, Aumann agreement, and deductive estimation. I'll have much more to say about my thesis in the coming months. But what I'll say for now is: my main hope for my thesis is that it'll inspire more work on this stuff.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

16 days

My crazy theory (which I think is only 5-10% likely) is that Biden is waiting until after the RNC to step aside, so that he takes the hit for Harris. RNC works less well if they don't know who they're running against.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

2 years

I seem to have done well in the ACX forecasting contest! I was unusually close to the average of all superforecasters -- indeed, closer to said average than 90% of superforecasters!

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

4 years

People release way more particles when they use plosive consonants (p/t/k/b/d/g). Help #slowthespread ; avoid plosives!

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

3 months

Guy who donates malaria nets to reduce fish populations so there's less wild animal suffering

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

6 months

I don't focus much on computational constraints (there's been an *enormous* amount of literature on that already). On the other hand, Bayesian epistemology under informational, communication, and strategic constraints is surprisingly neglected relative to its importance.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

6 months

You'd think that we'd have a really well-developed understanding of how to aggregate forecasts under incomplete information -- after all forecast aggregation is a truly ubiquitous problem! But... we kinda don't. Understanding this problem better is one topic of my thesis.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

6 months

ARC's research is aimed at figuring out how to build advanced AI as safely as possible. I think this is a really important problem -- the *most* important problem -- and I'm really excited to try to contribute to this effort as best I can.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

3 months

So it’s no surprise that, after a year of trying some other things, I decided to write my thesis about predicting the future. I'm really proud of the work I did and wanted to make sure that it was accessible to a (more) lay audience. Hence this post!

Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology

In January, I defended my PhD thesis. My thesis is called Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology, and it’s about predicting the future. In many ways, the last five years of my life have been unpredictab…

ericneyman.wordpress.com

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

3 years

After putting in the abbreviations of the first three states by hand, Excel kindly offered to fill in the rest for me. Thanks Excel!

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

6 months

But being a perfect Bayesian is often computationally intractable. And that's just one problem: there are many obstacles to completely assimilating all available information. Imagine that Alice tells you that there's a 60% chance that it will rain tomorrow, while Bob says 70%...

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

4 years

Dressed up as @FiveyFox for Halloween yesterday!

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

1 month

I've been looking forward to this! I haven't had the chance to dig into the details yet, but so far there's been one number that has jumped out as kinda crazy to me: the model gives Trump a 43.5% chance of winning Maine. That seems *way* too high to me.

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

1 month

Here's the landing page with all the charts and graphs — plus our polling averages. This is the one you'll want to bookmark.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

9 months

I thought about this in the context of China's one child policy, and the answer is 50%! Every family will have exactly one boy. But what is the expected number of girls per family? With 50% chance, they have a girl. Conditioned on that, with 50% chance, they have another girl...

Chloe

@chochlo

9 months

Please help! The book does have an answer but I’m really not convinced by it.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

6 years

@ForecasterEnten I think it isn't inconsistent to support a meeting when you like the president and oppose it when you don't. You just have to think that a meeting is worthwhile if and only if the president is competent.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

2 months

@Scott_Wiener Thank you for your work on this! I think this bill is great and I appreciate that you're striving to make it even better. The derivatives model clarification is particularly important IMO.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

3 years

Why does no one in my circles ever argue that the tail risk of nuclear energy isn't worth the benefits? This is exactly the sort of contrarian argument I'd expect to hear. And I'm not sure it's wrong either! Has anyone seen an analysis that carefully deals with tail risk?

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

3 years

The least used letters on ArXiv (source: <>)

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

1 month

Unfortunately I have to agree: for the good of the country, Biden should drop out.

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

1 month

🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

3 years

For personal reasons it's relevant to me what percent of Londoners will have covid on Thursday, the 16th. I did some math, and the number I got was really high: 10%! I'll spell out my math in this thread. Let me know if you think I'm doing anything wrong!

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

4 years

Welcome back Scott. I missed you <3

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

3 months

I donated $150 (15,000 Mana) to the Shrimp Welfare Project!

Manifold

@ManifoldMarkets

3 months

Manifold has donated $245,120.79 since we've started (plus a whole bunch of @manifund regrants)! Let's try to hit $300k or more before the rate change on May 15th 😤 Happy to add any charity you care about and want to donate to

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

3 months

Earlier I said that @slatestarcodex won a bet with @GaryMarcus on image generation. That was incorrect -- the bet was with a commentor named Vitor -- and I apologize to Gary Marcus.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

2 years

@ampol_moment Ok but this one is way weirder

2012 Herman Cain for President TV ad - Bunny

www.youtube.com

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

4 years

@NateSilver538 But like, when polling issues, a 4-point difference in margin doesn't matter that much. 52-48 an 48-52 both mean "basically half of Americans like this". So even if polls are regularly off by 4 points, we can use them to get a pretty good handle on public opinion!

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

2 months

I miss Golden Gate Claude :(

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

3 months

YIMBYs in Bangladesh: More Dhaka

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

6 months

How should you aggregate their forecasts? If you know exactly how Alice and Bob's information overlaps, then maybe you can compute the perfect aggregate. But in practice, you almost never do. This is an *informational* barrier to being a perfect Bayesian.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

4 years

There are a few people I follow who very consistently say really interesting, reasonable things. I recommend @KelseyTuoc and @juliagalef to everyone and @davidshor and @Nate_Cohn if you're interested in policitcs and elections.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

3 years

Confidence in probabilities: a thread. I sometimes say things like "I'm 50% sure of X but I'm not confident about that". What does "not confident" mean; what am I saying that's not expressed in the 50%?

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

5 months

@DanHendrycks @lukeprog Yeah sorry, I figured that that's what you meant. I'm curious if you can share more specifics.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

1 month

This is importantly misleading, because lesser-known candidates do worse in head-to-head polls. In 2020 polling, I found that for every 10-point increase in candidate recognition, a candidate gained 2 points in polls vs. Trump.

Data for Progress

@DataProgress

1 month

NEW POST-DEBATE POLL: In a new survey, 45% of likely voters choose Biden and 48% choose Trump in a head-to-head matchup. However, there is no clear advantage among the alternative candidates who could replace Biden as the Democratic nominee.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

4 years

@jeb_2020 @HarrisonScheer @GRMagalha @ne0liberal Thanks for pointing this out. For anyone interested, here's the full table. First column is probability of Trump winning the electoral college conditioned on winning the state, second column is same but for Biden.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

4 years

My biggest flaw is that I can't help but say "Do you mean EDT?" when someone says EST during the summer months.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

6 months

It refers to the "algorithmic lens" of theoretical CS on other disciplines, a major component of which is seeking *satisfactory* solutions in light of real-world constraints that prevent you from getting a *perfect* solution to your problem.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

4 years

Writing is hard because an essay is linear, whereas your own understanding of the material is a DAG. You have to to figure out a nice way to order your thoughts and convey them so the reader builds their own DAG.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

4 years

The @nytimes is planning to publish an article containing Scott Alexander's real name, and this is *very* not okay. It serves no positive purpose, but does serve to threaten Scott's job, and maybe even his life and family. (1/3)

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

6 months

There are other constraints as well: maybe you're limited by communication, or by the fact that the information you need it held by experts who behave strategically instead of honestly. And that's where the word *Algorithmic* in my thesis title comes in...

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

3 years

I love the feeling of unexpectedly using a piece of math from a pretty unrelated field in my research. I just used Shamir secret sharing (cryptography) to prove a result in my work on aggregating forecasts!

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

4 years

Introspecting about how I feel patriotism, I think that the action that the federal government could take to most increase my sense of national pride would be to substantially increase the amount of immigration into the US, let in lots of refugees, lift visa restrictions, etc.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

1 year

AI will probably most likely lead to the end of the world, but in the meantime, there'll be great memes

Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name)

@daniel_271828

1 year

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

4 years

5. Gibbous moons (moons that are more than half full but less than full) are aesthetically displeasing.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

3 years

@NateSilver538

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

9 months

@LinchZhang One important piece of word choice they made is saying that "the executive branch" issued an executive order, rather than saying "Biden". I'm guessing way more Republicans would have said they disapprove if they had said "Biden".

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

3 years

Watch this space. These questions just opened, so there will probably be visible community predictions soon (maybe tomorrow?). I haven't seen many people willing to make probabilistic predictions about Omicron, so this will be valuable.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

2 months

Wow, people are writing "white noise" with a lowercase w but "Brown noise" with a capital B. Political correctness really has gone too far!

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

3 years

Supreme Court headlines reliably take me like a minute to parse

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

3 years

Yesterday I gave a quick summary of my paper with @algo_class on aggregating forecasts. Today I'll describe my other paper, with Raf Frongillo and Bo Waggoner of CU Boulder. This one's called "Agreement Implies Accuracy for Substitutable Signals". 🧵/16

Agreement Implies Accuracy for Substitutable Signals

Inspired by Aumann's agreement theorem, Scott Aaronson studied the amount of communication necessary for two Bayesian experts to approximately agree on the expectation of a random variable....

arxiv.org

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

2 years

I'm finally thinking *on my own* about AI alignment and writing down my thoughts (might share at some point, but probably not soon). A couple big uncertainties stand out: questions that I think really matter in terms of figuring out which approaches might work. Here are two:

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

3 years

@devonzuegel That was the one I reacted most negatively to! (Though I don' think it's the worst one on the list -- it's just a pet peeve.) It sets up a huge prisoner's dilemma: maybe it's correct for the nation to go to war, but it's in everyone's interest to vote no anyway.

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Eric Neyman

@ericneyman

5 years

@TheOnion The first quote (translating via ASCII) is "I'm honored to meet with such hard-working, true Americans." The second one is "as president, I will never stop fighting for you.Despite our differences we all want freedom, democracy, and electricity."

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