Eli McKown-Dawson @emckowndawson Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

@BinorRaja

@MiguelRami67408

@_faktaindo

@CoachKippHoops

@srgtrades

@cacacalr

@Dr_AJC

@zhouliang_mask

@Manu_Guillotine

@BillDozer01

@rito___10

@keighleybus

@Beisekeyev

@arunasmarunas

@onasie3

@bokeplokalmalam

@tigre_e

@samsammoh3

@TypeMuscleMilk

@luchu777

@Rui_438

@Thepowerofdive1

@iamgilroy

@Bokepindoo2023

@juanstraat

@icon_chnnel

@stw46

@The_Goat_ong

@run_39_

@tionde_lisa

@kyleboonee

@stwmaniax

@dan_mansukhan

@M1KK97

@PoptartinatorYT

@dzzyxl

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

1 month

“I have concepts of a plan” is what I say when I have no idea how to fix a problem that @NateSilver538 has asked me to fix

29

75

2K

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

13 days

Cool benefit of working for @NateSilver538 . When people have crazy takes about a story you’ve written, he’ll agree to bet on that take for more than your entire net worth!

41

24

2K

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

1 month

Trump’s performance tonight is really just underscoring how unable Biden was to compete effectively. The fact that Trump won the last debate is sort of nuts

9

47

673

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

10 days

Every forecast update for the last couple weeks

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

10 days

Today’s update. Strange lack of high-quality new polls, but also not seeing any real signs of change in the race.

533

124

1K

8

6

250

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

13 days

Wait!!! I just realized this is the “you don’t need randomization if you have a large enough number of ns guy.” This website is incredible.

4

2

197

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

3 months

In what is definitely the most important news of the day, @NateSilver538 and I ran a forecast updated and added some cool new charts. Stay tuned for more information about how we'll handle the switch from Biden to the new Democratic nominee.

Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.

www.natesilver.net

10

183

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

14 days

My latest Silver Bulletin newsletter is all about the Sunshine State! Will Florida flip blue? Probably not. But that doesn’t mean the state isn’t worth investing in for the Harris campaign.

Should Kamala Harris gamble on a Blue Florida?

Success is unlikely, but the payoff is high.

www.natesilver.net

41

23

178

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

12 days

Yeah this is almost exactly what the Silver Bulletin model says. Polling average is R+ 3.4 and forecasted margin is R+ 3.8. In our case that works out to a ~20% chance of Harris flipping Florida. Slightly lower than Split Ticket have it, but a very similar conclusion.

Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

12 days

FWIW our model predicts Florida to be R+3.8, which is just so slightly right of 2020 (R+3.4). And Florida is actually polling similarly to its 2020 margin in our aggregates (it's R+3.4 there too). I think a lot of the reaction is because people expect Trump to landslide.

15

9

176

9

6

180

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

13 days

Also, Trump +8-14 in Florida is sort of nuts. I’d gladly take this bet if we shaved off about two 0s.

7

0

170

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

1 month

I’m contractually obligated to post this image every time we hit a milestone.

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

1 month

Well, this is quite something! Passed 200K total subscribers the other night. Never expected this. I deeply appreciate your patronage and hope you'll join us for what are going to be a really interesting 60 days, plus lots of cool stuff to come post-elex.

149

27

2K

3

0

142

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

2 months

On a less newsworthy note, we’re also giving subscribers access to our raw model output starting today. Check it out here:

Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.

www.natesilver.net

9

10

120

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

2 months

New from me! I cover the bull and bear cases for Kamala Harris’ potential convention bounce and discuss what they mean for our model.

How big will the bounce be?

The bull and the bear case for Harris’s post-convention numbers.

www.natesilver.net

8

12

122

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

20 days

Yeah… you definitely need a PhD to answer tough questions like “did the incumbent party gain seats in the midterms” and “is the incumbent candidate the sitting president”

Allan Lichtman

@AllanLichtman

20 days

Nate Silver claims to have applied my keys to predict a Trump victory. He doesn’t have the faintest idea how to turn the keys. He’s not a historian or a political scientist. He has no academic credentials. He was wrong when he said I could not make an early prediction of Obama‘s

1K

4K

25K

4

0

120

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

3 months

If Harris can convince comedians Keegan-Michael Key and Jordan Peele to make an anger translator sketch about her, she’ll unlock the CHARISMATIC INCUMBENT key and the KEY AND PEELE key, securing her victory in November.

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

3 months

Kamala Harris should murder a goat on live television, therefore unlocking both the RITUAL SACRIFICE and SIGNIFICANT DOMESTIC POLICY ACCOMPLISHMENT keys. 🔑

394

643

10K

7

5

117

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

2 months

@waitbutwhy @cjgbest @NateSilver538 Datawrapper (the program we use to make our graphics) doesn’t have the functionality to create a snake-type chart. But I’m hoping to have a chart that will look slightly different but show the same information up in the next couple weeks!

4

0

112

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

3 months

@JeremiahDJohns Probably this:

2

0

111

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

2 months

Check out this very wonky and (in my totally unbiased opinion) very good new post with @NateSilver538 !

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

2 months

Good candidate for the nerdiest Silver Bulletin post of all time.

17

9

210

4

7

81

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

4 months

Just posted the first update to the Silver Bulletin election forecast @NateSilver538 and I published yesterday! Ahead of tonight's debate, Trump leads by about 1.5 points in the national polling average. Check out the average and forecast here:

16

18

80

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

12 days

For anyone interested in a deep dive on Florida:

Should Kamala Harris gamble on a Blue Florida?

Success is unlikely, but the payoff is high.

www.natesilver.net

1

7

58

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

10 days

Things are also pretty similar over at the Silver Bulletin. Harris +3 nationally MI +1.7 WI +1.9 NV +1.9 PA +1.2 NC -0.7 GA -0.9 AZ -1.4

Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.

www.natesilver.net

Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

10 days

We do a lot of adjustments on our end as well *while considering* every poll except for 3 banned firms (ActiVote, Trafalgar, Rasmussen), and they work out pretty similarly. Harris +2.7 nationally MI +1.9 WI +2.2 NV +1.6 PA +1.2 NC -0.6 GA -1.4 AZ -1.6 Only minor differences.

10

20

291

1

3

57

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

5 months

Good news: I officially have an h-index and it definitely can’t get any smaller!

3

0

56

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

1 year

Happy to announce that my paper with @LonnaAtkeson , Bob Stein, and Trey Hood on measuring belief in ballot secrecy is in print @ElectionLawJrnl . Open access for 30 days:

4

9

48

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

1 month

“We have so many facts and statistics”. Should this be the new Silver Bulletin tagline @NateSilver538 ??

1

0

46

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

1 year

Had a great time presenting research with @LonnaAtkeson , @yimenglipolisci , @cutler_austin , and @KennethMackie on survey weighting methods for nonprobability samples @PolMethSociety ! #polmeth23 #polmeth40

0

2

46

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

27 days

Silver Bulletin 2028: We trained an AI model on every Nate Silver article ever written. Here’s its presidential forecast based on polls of AI agents.

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

27 days

LOL I wish there were a way to short this business this is maybe the single worst use case for AI I've ever heard.

95

57

2K

2

0

43

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

3 months

Harris when she secures the contest key.

Allan Lichtman

@AllanLichtman

3 months

Keep in mind that Harris must win two-thirds of the delegate votes not just a simple majority to lock down the Contest Key on the 13 Keys to the White House prediction system.

372

788

5K

2

1

42

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

3 months

If this press conference is delayed any longer Biden might not be reliably engaged by the time it starts.

1

0

40

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

2 months

At some point things will slow down (I’ll tell myself every day until November 5th)

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

2 months

The RFK-less version of the model is ready! But it barely made any difference. Here's an explanation of the simple fix we made, and why it hasn’t yet moved the topline numbers.

602

593

4K

4

0

39

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

16 days

"That's a damning non-answer" is what people say when I tell them the forecast is still 50/50

0

2

37

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

3 months

It's officially time for Kamala mode

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

3 months

BIDEN ENDORSING KAMALA, who is very likely to be the nominee given that the large majority of convention delegates are loyal to Biden

207

228

4K

3

0

36

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

9 months

My first article of 2024 with @YouGovAmerica ! Only 4 of 30 policies proposed by Trump are supported by a majority of Americans. But Republicans (and especially those who say they would vote for Trump in the primary), support most of his policies.

0

10

36

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

22 days

Today’s update: the forecast is holding steady. Harris leads by 2.7 points in our national polling average, and our Electoral College forecast is about as close to 50/50 as you can get.

Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.

www.natesilver.net

5

34

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

2 months

Definitely worth a read before tomorrow’s potential announcement from RFK and the brain worm

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

2 months

We’ve got a meaty piece for you tonight on what might happen if RFK Jr. drops out, if you can bear it.

55

34

387

1

3

33

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

3 months

Follow along to see if I’m strong enough to avoid insider trading for the next ~24 hours

Manifold

@ManifoldMarkets

3 months

We have advanced to predicting predictions. This is what the market thinks @NateSilver538 's new model will say.

1

0

24

2

0

33

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

16 days

Our first forecast update of October is a slow one. Harris increased her lead in our national polling average to 3.4 points — up from 3.2 points yesterday. But her chance of winning the Electoral College is still hovering right around 55%.

1

31

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

20 days

Also, I feel like it’s a bad sign if you sound like a Lord of the Rings character when discussing your prediction method. “ He doesn’t have the faintest idea how to turn the keys” is crazy

1

30

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

16 days

Yeah tonight is for the weirdos

John Arnold

@JohnArnoldFndtn

16 days

Zero overlap

186

2K

40K

1

0

30

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

3 months

VERY good use of polling!

Data for Progress

@DataProgress

3 months

Voters did not just fall out of a coconut tree — a majority agree that "you exist in the context of all in which you live and what came before you," including 56% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans.

52

749

4K

2

3

30

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

16 days

Had a great time touring the @YouGov London office today! Thanks to @CarlBialik @mattsmithetc for arranging

0

29

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

3 months

Check out my first Silver Bulletin article! It’s a deep dive into how Electoral College bias impacts our presidential forecast. It’s not great for Biden. Even if he wins the popular vote by 1 point, he’s pretty heavily favored to lose the election.

2

29

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

1 month

Election season is crazy man. If I was told 6 months ago that Bette Midler would be posting conspiracy theories about something I work on, I truly would not have believed it.

0

24

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

3 months

@JeremiahDJohns This is wild

1

0

23

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

13 days

@MattGlassman312 @NateSilver538 Yeah that’s pretty fantastic

0

22

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

1 year

My latest work with @YouGovAmerica @CarlBialik @taylor_orth

YouGov America

@YouGovAmerica

1 year

How a survey asks a question can have a big effect on results: the latest in a series on survey methodology.

0

13

0

1

15

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

1 month

Reverse I’m speaking now?!?

2

1

20

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

16 days

Not giving an answer on whether Trump lost the 2020 election really wasn't a good look for Vance

0

18

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

16 days

Vance looks really comfortable on a debate stage, but Walz seems to have warmed up after a bit of a shaky start.

1

0

17

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

20 days

New from me and @NateSilver538 ! A deep dive into how the Silver Bulletin model applies house effects.

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

20 days

Yep, it’s late on a Friday afternoon, but it’s Election Season, which means we have a very detailed newsletter for you about pollster “house effects”.

47

16

271

0

3

17

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

3 months

Short answer: not really!

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

3 months

New, from @emckowndawson : Did Biden's decline in the polls hurt Democratic Senate candidates?

16

14

127

0

1

16

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

1 month

Springfield honestly came up sooner than expected

3

0

16

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

12 days

@lxeagle17 Yep, our model has that as the most likely combination (followed by Trump winning all 7)

The 128 paths to the White House

From the Sun Belt to the Rust Belt, which maps are most likely?

www.natesilver.net

3

0

15

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

11 months

Check out some non horse race polling about how Americans perceive Trump and Biden!

YouGov America

@YouGovAmerica

11 months

Do Americans think Biden and Trump are to the left or the right of their parties on 10 issues?

1

0

13

0

2

15

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

2 months

Well it looks like Harris will get a much-needed boost in MN

1

0

14

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

1 month

In addition to our final pre-debate forecast update, we've also added a bunch of cool new charts. Check out some previews below 🧵

Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.

www.natesilver.net

1

14

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

3 months

TL;DR for our model plans

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

3 months

Today was a good day for rational behavior.

91

72

1K

2

0

14

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

1 month

A good thread:

Matt Glassman

@MattGlassman312

1 month

The strangest thing about progressives getting angry at @NateSilver538 is that he’s legitimately doing some of his best work ever right now at his core competency/contribution: trying to quantifying marginal election effects that previously were mostly just expert intuition. 1/

40

87

2K

1

0

13

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

3 months

@NateSilver538 Clearly I'm a large part of this milestone:

0

13

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

5 months

For the second in a series of articles about polling results with @YouGovAmerica , I asked how Americans interpret election polls and polls comparing policy support among two groups. Check out the results below:

How Americans characterize polls about policy support among two groups and elections | YouGov

When Candidates A and B have 44% and 43% support, respectively, only 15% of Americans think Candidate A is more likely than Candidate B to win the election.

today.yougov.com

1

2

12

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

20 days

A behind the scenes look at our daily forecast updates:

Ben Dreyfuss

@bendreyfuss

20 days

Nate Silver stands over a simmering cauldron. A crow caws and the clock strikes midnight. “It’s time to make Kamala go up!” He throws new ingredients in the brew: “eye of newt! Toe of frog!” The liquid begins to boil, bubble, and take on a life of its own.

6

11

297

0

12

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

3 months

This is a good poll by the @SplitTicket_ @DataProgress team! But wow, lots of people on this app cherry pick any decent poll for Biden while ignoring everything else. The write-up does a great job of contextualizing the results… but I don’t think the poll truthers are reading.

Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

3 months

🚨 NEW POLL ( @SplitTicket_ and @DataProgress ) 🚨 Trump: 41%, Biden: 40%, RFK Jr: 10% Generic Ballot: Democrat: 48%, Republican: 45%

246

729

2K

1

0

12

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

6 months

New from me and @YouGovAmerica : Hostility between Democrats and Republicans has increased since last year. Older Americans and those who identify more strongly with their own party are especially likely to feel negatively toward the other party. More:

1

2

12

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

6 months

Sometimes I forget how many people fundamentally misunderstand surveys

Robert F. Kennedy Jr

@RobertKennedyJr

6 months

President Biden cannot statistically win this election. Our campaign’s Director of Content, Jonathan Hiller, explains why. #rfkjr #kennedy24 #kennedyshanahan24

1K

2K

7K

1

0

11

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

5 months

The first in a series of articles with @YouGovAmerica about how Americans interpret the results of public opinion polls! The full article is linked below, and check out the next Tweet for an overview of the findings on policy support:

Survey says what? How Americans characterize polls about policy support | YouGov

Even when a hypothetical policy has 99% support in a survey, only 66% of Americans consider that a consensus.

today.yougov.com

1

3

11

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

3 months

(Obviously this is a joke. I do not endorse or partake in insider trading)

2

0

10

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

1 month

@NateSilver538 FYI I’ve nailed down your birthday present @NateSilver538

0

10

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

2 years

Great to present at #ESRA2022 #CharlotteESRA

MIT Election Lab

@MITelectionlab

2 years

Last on this panel: a look at ballot secrecy presented by Trey Hood & Eli Mckown-Dawson #ESRA2022

0

1

7

0

1

10

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

10 days

Trump is very likely to win Florida — I don’t think anyone’s trying to disagree with that. But it’s unlikely that he’ll more than double his 2020 margin in the state. Again it’s possible, but it’s far from the likeliest outcome.

Keith Rabois

@rabois

10 days

Where are all those buffoons pontificating about FL now? cc @NateSilver538

14

2

58

1

0

16

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

5 months

First #aapor24 session! Great paper from @Ipsos on measurement error in unipolar and bipolar survey response formats.

0

1

9

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

2 years

Check out some of my latest research with @LonnaAtkeson , Bob Stein, and Trey Hood!

MIT Election Lab

@MITelectionlab

2 years

What do voters believe about ballot secrecy? In a blog earlier this week, @emckowndawson , @LonnaAtkeson , Bob Stein, & Trey Hood presented some of their research on the (very salient!) issue:

0

1

5

0

2

9

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

11 months

My latest with @YouGovAmerica !

YouGov America

@YouGovAmerica

11 months

New poll on funding federal agencies For each of 30 federal agencies, no more than 35% of Americans want to reduce their funding. 57% of Americans would increase funding for the VA.

2

14

0

9

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

3 months

Vice President Trump??

0

8

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

3 months

Streamlined and elegant

Leon Sit

@politicsmaps

3 months

@Thorongil16 You should look into Leon Sit's 1 Key Model. Key 1: Candidate wins 270 electoral college votes. Hasn't been wrong yet, I think I'll be right this year too.

3

0

51

1

0

8

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

16 days

RFK finally made it into a debate!

1

0

8

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

5 months

Optimal sample allocation under nonresponse at #aapor24

0

1

8

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

1 month

@ReplyHobbes Well it’s complicated. We apply an Eli Bounce Adjustment to the Silver Bulletin Subscription Forecast. But we don’t adjust the raw numbers you’re seeing here (much like our polling averages and the convention bounce)

0

8

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

9 days

This is heinous

Jacob Rubashkin

@JacobRubashkin

9 days

An instant addition to the overdramatic polling graphic pantheon

15

26

409

2

1

24

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

3 months

@JeremiahDJohns @Jilakinorm This is even worse than I thought it would be

0

8

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

3 months

This is a great straightforward correction. Mistakes like this happens and it’s important to own up to them quickly and publicly.

POS

@POStrategies

3 months

The polling team extends its apology to @NBCNews and to all those who reviewed the filled in questionnaire of our most recent survey. We made an important mistake on the filled in released today. On the multi-candidate ballot (Q8, corrected here) we flipped the numbers.

506

580

2K

0

8

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

3 months

We got a golf reference!

0

7

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

27 days

@JeremiahDJohns Look, if you see any photos of me on a superyacht, you now know why…

0

7

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

5 months

Finally got power back after 33 hours. Thanks to everyone @CityofTLH for all of their hard work putting things back together!

0

7

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

5 months

@PhDemetri People often use independent researcher.

0

7

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

1 month

@NateSilver538 Curling?

1

0

7

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

3 months

A good thread:

Justin Grimmer

@JustinGrimmer

3 months

Allan Lichtman claims his 13 keys offer definitive predictions on who will win the presidential election. Lichtman cannot possibly have the data to back up these claims. He is (at least) 11,988 years away from having enough evidence to support his most basic predictions. Thread

9

35

208

0

7

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

4 months

Evening plans: debating watching and working on forecast charts!

0

6

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

12 days

@PatrickRuffini I think about this sometimes too. I usually code the margin so Republican is positive, because positive numbers fall to the right of zero. So things get more Republican as you move right and more Democratic as you move left.

0

6

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

12 days

@lxeagle17 @AdrianBeavis1 Yeah the results from both of our models are incredibly similar at the moment!

0

6

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

1 month

@NateSilver538 The American People disagree

1

0

6

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

5 months

Great #aapor24 papers on partisan nonresponse based on survey mode and misreporting of voting methods among Democrats and Republicans!

0

1

6

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

3 months

Officially Joever

Joe Biden

@JoeBiden

3 months

89K

180K

1M

0

1

6

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

1 year

@aedwardslevy @YouGovAmerica Thanks! We weren’t sure which direction the relationship would go with age, but the results were pretty interesting.

0

2

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

12 days

@lxeagle17 This is actually the second victory in the War on Woke. FSU struck the first blow a couple weeks ago

1

0

5

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

12 days

Harder to watch games live now that I'm in the UK but I still get the full FSU fan experience when I wake up and check how badly we lost our latest game. Was it close? Was it a blowout? Either way, I'm disappointed

0

5

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

3 months

@milansingh03 Don’t worry, it’s coming in the relaunch. But we’re adding a few keys that we’ve found to be very predictive of Electoral College outcomes:

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

3 months

Kamala Harris should murder a goat on live television, therefore unlocking both the RITUAL SACRIFICE and SIGNIFICANT DOMESTIC POLICY ACCOMPLISHMENT keys. 🔑

394

643

10K

1

0

5

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

1 month

Come discuss the debate!

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

1 month

Debate night chat thread up for Silver Bulletin subscribers! For various reasons I don't really like doing social media during debates so you won't see a lot of me, but @emckowndawson will be there and I hope the group can get a good conversation going.

37

5

126

0

5

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

11 months

One of the rare times where a pie chart is the only acceptable data visualization

AP-NORC Center

@APNORC

11 months

Pumpkin pie dominates as the favorite Thanksgiving pie.

0

1

4

0

1

5

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

1 year

The oversampling takes today are making my head hurt

Mueller, She Wrote

@MuellerSheWrote

1 year

This poll has an oversample of republicans and republican-leaning independents. 898 of 1503 total people polled are or lean GOP.

20

687

2K

0

5

Eli McKown-Dawson

@emckowndawson

3 months

@PatrickRuffini I think this is just pricing in the chance of Biden not finishing his term. The bottom scenario says “elected” so the market thinks there’s a 7% chance Harris becomes president after Biden drops out.

0

5