Asia EVs • Batteries • Supply Chains. Driving w/Dunne Pod. Thai, Indo, 中文 French. To get the full value of joy, you must have someone to divide it with. Twain.
China 97%.
Incredible.
“The share of European consumers who said their next vehicle will be all-electric has not changed over the past 3 years at 43%.
Chinese buyers answering the same question positively, meanwhile, rose to 97 percent”
When it comes to electric vehicle and plug-in markets, China is not just bigger than the next guy...
...China is bigger than everyone else on the planet combined.
There's more: China will continue to be the runaway leader in production and supply of EVs to global markets for
Global automakers getting absolutely hammered in China.
Sales are tumbling. Profits have swung to losses in the hundreds of millions of $$$.
Hurting most:
Ford
GM
VW
Nissan
Hyundai
Kia
VW, once the all powerful market leader, is reeling, tracking to lose $500
Disaster is not too strong a word to describe GM's results in China.
China Sales - Q2 2024
Chevy down 80%
Cadillac down 48%
Buick down 40%
GM China Sales History
2017: 4.1 million (peak)
2024: 1.4 milion (f)
BYD will introduce the Shark pickup truck in Mexico tomorrow.
Yes - Pickup truck
Yes - Mexico
Yes - Tomorrow.
A plug in hybrid electric with 100 km of electric only range. Toyota's Hilux is the target.
China Inc is disrupting the global electric vehicle industry similarly to the way it disrupted the smartphone industry, introducing new products with reputable technology, high specs, slick styling and luxury features at half the price of the competition
Xiaomi SU7: $US29,900
China Is Done With Global Automakers: "Thanks For Coming"
The visiting team is still on the field, running around as fast as it can, trying to forge a comeback.
For decades, they thought they were playing on a familiar field. But time is up, the game is over. China - the home
BYD attacking best selling gasoline cars with this new 4 character advertisement.
“Electric cheaper than gasoline”
Prices now starting at $11,100.
Company says new pricing is sending ICE makers like VW and Nissan “into a panic”
Stunning number of Chinese car brands.
Among the EV players, only BYD and Li Auto are profitable today.
In a market economy, most of these would have disappeared by now. But China's system of state capitalism encourages more players.
People have been talking about
Think of China's 100+ automakers as a set of 6 competing kingdoms.
1. Big 6 State Enterprise Kingdoms
SAIC • BAIC • FAW
GAC • Changan • Dongfeng
2. Big 3 Private Company Kingdoms
BYD • Geely • Great Wall
3. Young 50+ EV/SDV Startup Kingdoms
NIO • Li Auto • Xpeng
You may have seen me mention service as the Chinese automakers Achilles heel as they go global.
Real time case: BYD in Thailand. Customer got in accident. Repairs cost more than the value of the car. Insurance company hesitating. BYD silent, Thais not impressed.
Harsh new realities for global 車 brands in China:
Jeep has retreated from its JV. Game over.
Ford treading water, losing money
Korean brands off 40% since 2018
GM off 50% from peak
Japanese brands down 33% in Q1
BYD new sales leader, 1st time in 40 yrs VW not No. 1
Definitely enjoyed test driving the NIO EC6 with Ganesh Iyer, Global CIO, at NIO’s US headquarters in San Jose yesterday.
NIO is entering key European markets in 2022 including Sweden, Netherlands and Germany.
Test driving the NIO EC6 this week in San Jose. Looking forward to the arrival of the just launched ET7 which NIO says is designed to compete with the BMW 7 series.
No end of a lesson for global brands in China
May 2024 Sales
Cadillac -48%
Buick -41%
Honda -35%
Hyundai -31%
Toyota -16%
Audi -15%
VW -14%
...and a singular bright spot
Tesla + 30%
Thank you
@LucidMotors
for the opportunity to get behind the wheel of this “Zenith Red”
Lucid Air.
Now I know why the
@nytimes
car reviewer puts it right there, even ahead, of the Mercedes EQS.
China blew past even the most optimistic of EV forecasts for 2021.
• Total EV sales jumped 254% to 3.3 million.
• BYD, Wuling and Xpeng - record sales in December.
• China accounted for > half of all EVs sold globally.
Will the frenzied pace continue to '22?
How to say profit machine in German?
German Luxury Sales in China 2018
Audi 660,000
Mercedes 652,000
BMW 639,000
Porsche 80,000
Chinese consumers bought more than twice as many German luxury cars as Americans did in 2018.
In a week of driving the Kia EV6 around San Diego, a lot of passersby were impressed with the design. "Good-looking car!" 9 of out of 10, however, could not identify the brand. Several guessed Polestar, Rivian, Volvo -- even some Lucid. Pretty good company for Kia.
“Thailand now has 490,000 unsold EVs, according to the Electric Vehicle Association of Thailand (EVAT), equivalent to 63% of all vehicles the country turned out in the past 12 months.”
Thai subsidies for Chinese EV makers wreak havoc
Tremendous conversation with
@farzyness
and
@HansCNelson
on the future of Tesla in China.
Competition in China is brutal.
Tesla and Elon will continue to be welcome as long as they lead in innovation.
Less inventive, less agile legacy automakers like GM and Nissan are
What if every single car is Made in China.
Unthinkable, right? Think again.
Chinese and global automakers are making China the production center for world markets. The numbers are astonishing.
Read the Dunne Insights Newsletter.
Hyundai-Kia Car Sales in China
2016: 1.8 million
2023: 310,000
How to explain such a catastrophic fall?
1. Purely market forces, as buyers switched to EVs.
2. Something more at work here.
via
@ft
Very well done by
@Petercampbell1
"...If the Chinese sell an EV that is just as good as a western car, but cheaper, that is one thing. But if they sell a better car that also undercuts the west, it’s impossible to catch up."
via
@ft
Meet the next Waymo autonomous vehicle - on Zeekr wheels.
Swedish design ingenuity, Chinese low-cost EV production and Waymo brainpower.
Look for them on American roads before you know it.
My Swedish & Chinese hosts took me on a convincing walkaround this week @ Monticello.
Toyota Reality Shock.
“For the first time, I came face to face with the competitiveness of Chinese components,” Kato said.
After seeing equipment and manufacturing processes not used in Japan, Kato thought, “We’re in trouble!”
In what market can a large carmaker see sales nosedive 55%?
In China.
SAIC-GM delivered 240,000 vehicles between January and July, down a stunning 55%.
More job cuts coming.
Worth keeping in mind that not every Chinese carmaker is a success.
The China car market is extremely competitive. The majority of EV startups lose money.
Here is a (partial) list of EV startups that were once flying high and now are under pressure or have capitulated.
•
Detroit Three in China - Q3 2019:
GM down 17.5%
FCA down 24%
Ford down 30%
Imagine if these sharp rates of decline were happening in the world's largest car market.
Wait a sec.....
An important note on China & NEVs.
Many will be aware that China has developed its own standard category of vehicles it calls New Energy Vehicles (NEVs). This category includes pure EVs, PHEVs and hydrogen-powered cars.
When Chinese talk about EV sales they are generally (not
Japan finds itself way behind in electrics.
EV Sales 2023
Tesla + BYD = 3.37 million
Nissan + Honda = 159,000
"In 2023, Nissan and Honda sold only 140,000 and 19,000 EVs worldwide, respectively, while Tesla and BYD were far ahead with 1.8 million and 1.57 million,
Chinese carmakers are very fast in development and iteration.
Why so much faster than the rest of the world?
1 Simpler, software defined vehicles.
2. Hyper competition at home.
3. Daring entrepreneurs unburdened by legacy.
What else?
Meet Linda Zhang. Arrived to America from China in 3rd grade. At 19, she graduated from Michigan with a degree in EE. Now she is Chief Engineer of Ford's most important product, the Ford F-150 / F-150 Lightning.
Winning in Asia Podcast
It's up or out for GM in China
The era of global automakers selling mass market brands in the PRC is over. Chinese automakers are eating their lunch.
Cadillac is the last line of defense.
CATL now engaging with Ford, Tesla and GM directly on supply in North America.
What does this mean for Korean and Japanese battery makers who have poured tens of billions into NA plants since 2020?
Yes, CATL brings LFP chemistry, not NMC. But still...
Are we in WWIII but just do not know it yet?
Talking about global EV price wars of course.
Started & continue in China. Spread to Europe in 2023. Now taking hold in America.
Tesla & BYD & few others will survive. Appreciation
@herbertong
for the conversation
Exclusive interview with Michael Dunne!
An auto industry expert who's lived in China for decades, Michael shares 2 TESLA predictions that will stun investors.
A price war in the US and an EV underdog who might end up winning it all.
@dunne_insights
Ford cuts F150 production on weaker demand, just another signs of a slowing EV market. But Dunne Insight's Michael Dunne says Tesla is still the one EV maker to rule them all.
@Dunne_insights
@tanvirgill2
@willkoulouris
$TSLA $F $GM $STLA
What is the pithy caption for this picture?
Ford Sales in China
2016 828K
2018 453K
2020 254K
2022 219K
2024 160K (f)
Ford has lost $5.5 billion China since 2020.
BYD is now China's No.1 automaker, knocking VW from the perch for the first time in 35 years.
Was BYD's billionaire founder raised on a farm?
Why did Warren Buffett back him?
How soon before BYD cars are running on American roads?
Listen to the Driving With Dunne podcast
Big picture update on China's EV market
• Larger than all other global markets combined.
• Could reach 10 million this year.
• EV share of total car sales running at 40% in 2024
• Among top 10 best selling models, Tesla is the only non-Chinese brand.
I have to ask myself why the guy in charge of Mercedes would declare that he wants lower tariffs on Chinese imports into Europe.
This is quite an unusual stance.
via
@ft
BYD preparing for higher EU tariffs by building a plant in Hungary.
BYD expects to begin producing cars before the end of next year - an incredibly rapid pace for an industry where factories can take four or more years to complete.
Wealthy Indonesians like to ride in these $80,000 Alphard vans from Toyota. Spacious, quiet and unflashy, the idea is to be comfortable and not draw attention.
A small army of Chinese automakers can already make $25,000 EVs.
Why try to compete in that zero profit hellscape?
Far better to steer clear of those black holes and focus on the frontier: AI-smart autonomous driving.
Chinese automakers getting on the battery swapping train:
NIO
Geely
SAIC
BAIC
GAC
Most Chinese city folk live in apartments so swapping much more practical than charging.
Per
@SinoAutoInsight
Ford might tap into NIO swap network for the China built Mach E.
Interessant!
China added 157 million cars to its roads in the past ten years.
China Car Population 2008: 170M
China Car Population 2018: 327M
US Car Population 2018: 276M
Source: Hedges Co., South China Morning Post
One to watch: China’s Xiaomi.
Along with Apple and Samsung, Xiaomi now controls half of the world’s smartphone market.
Xiaomi delivered 146 million smart phones in 2023.
Now the company markets its pure electric SU7 to the same consumers.
Xiaomi received 75,000 orders for
Geely. Hungry.
@Geely
acquisitions in past year:
- Terrafugia, the US flying car company
- 51% stake in Lotus
- 49.9% stake of PROTON
- strategic investments in Saxo Bank of Denmark, in AB Volvo, and...
- now largest shareholder in Daimler AG.
Hyundai Sales in China
2017: 1.6 million
2023: 250,000
Hyundai doing well everywhere on the planet except the PRC.
What explains the China market calamity?
Something happened in 2017…
A (hidden) cost of more sensors via
@reillybrennan
Trucks I FoT Newsletter:
US car insurance rates climbed 29.6%, to average of $1,548 in 2019 from $1,194 in 2011 via Wired. 'The high cost of repairing sensor-packed vehicles outpaces the savings from fewer crashes.'
China's CATL is the the fastest growing EV battery maker on the planet.
CATL Revenues
2014: $133 million
2015: $826 milllion
2016: $2.1 billion
2017: $2.9 billion
2018: $4.3 billion
Source: Wall Street Journal
Question of the Day: Quantity achieved. What about quality?
In Q1 2024, China exported 1.3 million vehicles. Of total, 76% were gasoline powered.
China tracking to export 6M in 2024, more than the total size of Japan’s car market.
Major market gains in: Mexico, Brazil, Thailand, Russia, Chile, Australia, Israel and Spain.
U.S. Sec of Treasury to rest of world in 1971: “it’s our currency but it’s your problem.”
Chinese leaders to rest of world in 2024: “it’s our EV car market but it’s your problem.”
When the world’s largest car market converts to EVs at speed, it’s a giant global earthquake with
Chinese automaker footholds in Europe
• MG and Chery in Spain (new Chery plant coming)
• MG and BYD in the UK (possible MG plant coming)
• Volvo, Polestar in Sweden
• BYD in Hungary (new plant coming)
• NIO, Xpeng still searching for traction in EU.
China's Big 3 Billionaire EV Founders & Their Respective Areas of Insane Focus
William Li / NIO: Customers.
He Xiapeng / Xpeng: Technology.
Li Xiang / Li Auto: Product.
Which one will win out? Or will these three buddies one day merge?
The world has never seen so much automotive firepower concentrated in one country.
No. 1. In production
No. 1 in sales
No. 1 in exports
No.1 in electrics
No. 1 in batteries
No. 1 in processing critical minerals
No. 1 in low cost production
No. 1 in State support
Peugeot Sales in China: A scary trend line.
2015: 403,000
2016: 306,000
2017: 248,000
2018: 139,000
Source: China Association of Automotive Manufacturers
Chinese brands like Geely, GAC and Great Wall mopping up. Attention other middle market global brands.
Founder and CEO Henrik Fisker joins the Winning in Asia podcast this week.
You do not want to miss this episode - June 30 2021
- Maserati / Z8 / Vantage
- A Fisker Popemobile?
- The Fisker Ocean SUV
We also ask what inspires Henrik to build his brand new EV company.
When it comes to the future survival, Detroit needs 2 things:
1. Tariffs to buy time. Check.
2. Hell bent determination to win in global markets - shifting from retreat to attack.
Detroit has been in retreat mode for too long. Time to shake it up.
At the Mackinac Policy Conference this week, business & political leaders gathered to make big decisions about Michigan's future.
One key topic: the threat of Chinese car imports and Biden's 100% tariffs.
A few observations:
Many people in Michigan are just beginning
1/7
China November EV sales get close to America's total for all of 2022.
Penetration rate: 33%. Stunning.
It's a Chinese brands plus Tesla show.
via
@CnEVPost
Chinese battery makers seek US access via Morocco.
"The largest is Chinese-German battery-maker Gotion High-Tech, which signed a deal with Morocco last year for $6.4 billion investment to construct Africa’s first electric vehicle battery factory."
BYD accelerates overseas manufacturing offensive.
Thailand 🇹🇭
Brazil 🇧🇷
Hungary 🇭🇺
Turkey 🇹🇷
Uzbekistan 🇺🇿
Pakistan (tbc)
Mexico (tbc)
Indonesia (tbc)
California & Canada (bus plants since 2010s)
via
@CnEVPost
Worth noting:
Giant parts makers like Bosch, Lear, Denso, Magna, Valeo, Michelin etc were brought to China by global OEMs since 2000s. Massive plants nationwide.
Now they are pivoting to supply Chinese brands, helping them achieve world class quality in record time.
Indonesia is the king of nickel, a key material for electric vehicle batteries. Chinese investors control most of the mines. Western companies are trying to muscle in.
Next time you hear about GM sales in China, look closer
Cadillac, Buick & Chevy account for only 35% of deliveries in Q1 2024. The balance comes from SGMW, a 3-way Chinese controlled JV
Total: 441K
Buick Chevy Cadillac: 155K
SGMW: 286K
China autos (frightening) tech leadership.
“I am not ... afraid of the price, I’m much more afraid of the tech they bring, whether they are somewhere ahead of us that is unreachable. That would be frightening.”
Thomas Ingenlath, CEO, Polestar
This was not expected, so deserves a reality check:
1. For gov't agencies in Jiangsu province only – Tesla's home / backyard in China
2. More significant if Tesla qualifies in other cities & provinces
3. Making list does not guarantee sales
Going to be the biggest disruption story in 2024 & beyond. Watch out Western automakers.
“China spent 20 years destroying emerging-market competitors in manufacturing. Now it’s threatening to do the same to advanced economies’ manufacturers.”
via
@ft
How many Detroits in China? Enough to build 10 million units in excess capacity.
Capacity: 40 million
Demand: 25 million
Exports (2023): 5 million
Excess: 10 million.
10 million equals total annual US production.
Top 7 Chinese New EV Brands to Watch:
NIO
WM ("Weltmeister")
BYTON
Seres (Formerly SF Motors)
Xpeng (Alibaba backing)
Polestar (Volvo)
Geometry (Geely)
Then there are scores of dark horses: Leap, Bordrin, Singulato, CHJ, Yudo, Hozon, DearCC, EVChairman, GreatHelmsman etc.
Chinese brands will win 1/3 of the global car market by 2030, says Alix Partners.
One in three.
China already has capacity to supply half global demand for vehicles.
The Great China Freight Train gathers speed.
Is Volvo a Chinese car company? This question seems to ignite strong emotions.
The brand and design and delightful l mini flags on the seats are clearly Swedish.
But the owner of Volvo Cars has been Chinese for more than a decade.
“Chinese competitors are very strong, and I’m very scared of their implementation and execution speed,” said Mizuno, chief executive of Sony Honda Mobility.
Mizuno knows things. He led Honda’s China operations until 2020.
via
@ft