Tom Dunleavy @dunleavy89 Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Tom Dunleavy

@dunleavy89

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CFA/CAIA | Partner @MV Capital (fka Master Ventures) | Prev: Sr. Analyst @ Messari, Principal @ SSGA, VP @ Meketa ($8T AUA) | Featured on Bloomberg+others | NFA

United States

Joined March 2009

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@dunleavy89

Tom Dunleavy

23 days

Your comprehensive DePIN guide for 2024 and beyond This free report from @buildwithMV contains: -30+ pages of analysis -8 market maps -100s of protocols discussed -Detailed investment frameworks proposed Link in the last tweet. TLDR in the next few (We did our best to include

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@dunleavy89

Tom Dunleavy

10 months

Warren sponsored: 36 bills in the 118th congress (2023-24). 0 passed. 103 bills in the 117th congress (2021-22). 0 passed. 98 bills in the 116th Congress (2019-20). 0 passed. 80 bills in the 115th congress(2017-18). 0 passed. 27 bills in the 114th congress. (2015-16). 0 passed.

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Tom Dunleavy

1 year

ETH deposits are already outpacing withdrawals lol

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

SOL daily active wallets 3x pre FTX levels

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

Not only does FTX have the Solana exposure they have to offload but they also led the series A round for both Aptos and Sui...

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Tom Dunleavy

3 months

@FrankLuntz Lol are we watching the same thing

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Tom Dunleavy

2 months

Crypto now has the number one Super PAC in the US with over $200m raised Fairshake (crypto) now surpasses both the biggest Republican and Democratic Super Pacs: Make America Great Again (Republican) and Senate Majority (Dem). Source: OpenSecrets dot org

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

(1/6) If your currency was rapidly depreciating what would you buy to protect your purchasing power? The answer for Euro and Pound holders has overwhelmingly been #Bitcoin This is notable because we did not see the same trend in previous crises in 2020 or 2021 A brief 🧵

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

Polkadot and Cosmos development active has been impressive

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

Everyone likes to give @Cardano shit but they still have 1m+ holders (even accting for UTXO nonsense) If the Vasil hardfork (now on testnet) enables scaling/ functioning ecosystem beyond pmts, they have a monetizable userbase bigger than almost anyone (No i dont hold any ADA)

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

Q1 2022 was the first quarter since the 1980s you literally couldn't win in any asset class....and your cash got crushed by inflation

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Tom Dunleavy

9 months

24 crypto predictions for 2024 Unlike other threads put in as many hard numbers for these predictions to make them quantifiable. Also tried to call out as many start-ups/hidden gems as possible. Most launching in Q1. 15 for 25 last year. Can we do better this year? NFA

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Tom Dunleavy

1 year

No ETF can come to market without seed capital that means spot buying For the BTC ETF I bet the seed capital across these 8 we see $200M-$400M in spot buying upon approval with of course much more as the products are launched. The current assumption is all would be approved at

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

Estimating #ETH yield + valuation post-merge has been a challenge. There are great models built but many are now out of date W/ the merge in focus, I built a fresh set of models (h/t @drakefjustin , @Data_Always , @Saypien_ ) for you to mess with TLDR ~10% yields and est $6k ETH

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Tom Dunleavy

5 months

Base is onboarding 50k-100k new crypto users a day. Approaching 9m users total. h/t @watermeloncrypt

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Tom Dunleavy

1 year

. @solana is like buying a basket of call options at this point. Hard to find much more downside from here given the strong community. So many reasons to be bullish 1) Solana mobile (opening up the design space for an devs in an area Eth hasnt touched) 2) Visa partnership

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Tom Dunleavy

11 months

USDC on @coinbase now offering 6% (!) yields

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@dunleavy89

Tom Dunleavy

2 years

Stocks up, crypto up more. Stocks down, crypto down more. That’s the world we live in today. But not for long. How, when and why crypto de-couples from stocks 👇 🧵

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Tom Dunleavy

3 months

40% of Ethereum supply is locked ~28% staked ~12% smart contracts and bridges ETH ETF flows are going to rapidly move this market

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

BTC miners sell roughly 100% of the coins they mine The 10 public bitcoin miners detailed here mined ~40.7k BTC and sold ~40.3k in 2022 This is a persistent headwind for BTC and for no other reason a good thesis to be bullish the ETHBTC ratio trade

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Tom Dunleavy

1 year

. @solana has seen a massive spike in active users this month. Even if you are an Eth maxi hard to not have a small allocation here with so users, devs and call options not priced in (ie mobile, neon, things eth cant do (ie order book, xnfts))

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Tom Dunleavy

2 months

Tether is hands down one of the most profitable businesses of all time at $52M in earnings PER EMPLOYEEE h/t @LexSokolin

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

According to Fidelity ~70% (!!) of investors in Asia have a crypto allocation vs 30% in the US 100% (!!) of financial advisors in Asia hold crypto

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

Coinbase is back to a 2018 (pre-ipo) valuation, despite: -4x users -4x MAUs -13x in institutional volumes -Largest US competitor collapsing

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Tom Dunleavy

6 months

Memecoins outperformed every other sector by 10x in Q1.

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

We need to be brutally honest in times like this and get out of our bubble Self-custody is not desired by 95% of the population and it never will be If we want to onboard BILLIONS of users we need to make safe, transparent, trustworthy, custody work That means good regulation

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

Buy ETH. Buy the S&P 500. Wake up in 10 years and be fine. In the meantime, go get a hobby and stop watching the prices.

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Tom Dunleavy

3 months

We are going to get $12b-$16b in cash to FTX creditors coming in October and November of this year. Basically all buy pressure IMO. h/t @wintermute_t

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

FTX ventures or Alameda venture deals with the ones they led highlighted

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

@elonmusk How do you quantify negative/hate?

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

The most popular strike price for Sept 30 ETH calls is.....$5,000 American dollars

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

. @Polkadot and @kusamanetwork devs surging the last few months. What is going on, on these networks I am missing?

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Tom Dunleavy

9 months

Quick reminder that Ethereum hit $10 billion in revenue faster than any other major software company besides Google. h/t @JustDeauIt

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

Has anyone come out of this mess looking better than Coinbase?

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

A recent paper from Harvard concludes BTC, alongside gold will become a larger share of central bank reserves due to the sanction risk of holding US treasuries post the Russia/Ukraine incident

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Tom Dunleavy

10 months

ETH ETF showdown looks to be finalized in May right after the halving and (hopefully) post BTC ETF approval. We are in for a big first half of 2024🔥 h/t @JSeyff

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Tom Dunleavy

11 months

$300m went into crypto funds this week. Biggest inflow in almost 18 months.

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

My personal top 25 predictions for 2023 1-2 tweets per #taek , 1 chart/pic to make it EZ on the eyes/brain Some overlap with @twobitidiot and our firmwide theses but some notable deviations Thanks to my awesome colleagues @MessariCrypto research for shaping many of these

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Tom Dunleavy

3 years

This isn't the 2017/2018 cycle, the institutions are FINALLY coming to crypto Here's why this time is different 🧵👇

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Tom Dunleavy

9 months

. @solana active developers (627 vs 508) and weekly committs (5685 vs 2682) now outpacing Ethereum by a good margin. h/t @artemis__xyz

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Tom Dunleavy

3 months

Still trying to wrap your head around Crypto x AI? (1/6) Our latest report has you covered. 30 pages of detailed, analysis charts and investor implications. Free.

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

The recent bank run in one visual Deposits in the banking sector have declined by almost $600bn since the Fed began to raise interest rates The biggest banking sector deposit outflow on record

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Tom Dunleavy

1 year

If you aren't confused right not, you arent paying attention. I pulled all the available data to look at the end game for the rest of 2023 Quick ~15 tweets, each with a chart to understand where we are at and the eventual endgame 🧵

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Tom Dunleavy

6 months

Anyone noticed the hockey stick growth in @chainlink network fees and usage in the last month? Price still sure hasn't...

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Tom Dunleavy

1 year

Fading Cramer? Might as well fade the whole network When CNBC runs a "markets in turmoil segment" the market has been up ONE HUNDRED PERCENT of the time 1 year ahead... An average of up 40(!)%

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Tom Dunleavy

9 months

BLACKROCK CEO FINK SAYS SEE VALUE IN HAVING AN ETHEREUM ETF - RTRS FINK: "I'M A BELIEVER IN CRYPTOCURRENCY AS AN ASSET CLASS, NOT A CURRENCY" Here we go.

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

Dydx absolutely kills it on the revenue side and could get some extra monetary premium running on their own chain, but their inflation schedule makes them uninvestable Look at this cliff The dydx token supply basically doubles in Feb

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

Despite the bear market, stablecoin volumes are at an all-time high Stables remain the most boring but most real use case of crypto h/t @kylewaters_ and @coinmetrics

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

. @dYdX recently announced it is leaving the @ethereum Layer-2 (L2) ecosystem to launch its own @Cosmos chain. This decision prompted many investors and builders to reconsider the tradeoffs between these two ecosystems.

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Tom Dunleavy

1 year

Blackrock has succeded in 575 out of the 576 ETF applications it has filed.

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Tom Dunleavy

10 months

tbf native americans are notoriously poor deal-makers

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Tom Dunleavy

1 year

ETH price flat YoY August 22, 2022: $1640 August 22, 2023: $1640 Developments over that 1 year: -Successful merge -Successful rollout of L2 SDKs (opstack etc) -Multiple zk-EVMs launched -100ks of new contracts deployed on mainnet -ETH stake rate 10%-> 20% -Plenty more I am

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

Been down on alt L1s but @avalancheavax has been shipping -Rust SDK to build custom VMs on Avalanche -Avalanche Warp Messaging (AVM) for native subnet-to-subnet messaging -Partnership with AWS for 1click subnets which should help enterprises and governments onboard

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

Synthetix daily active users up 4,500% YoY on the back of perps expansion

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Tom Dunleavy

1 year

. @Rocket_Pool is the best investment idea on the board atm imho (NFA, etc) . Why? -Atlas upgrade (next wk) lowers threshold to run a node -Accompanying expansion in rETH w/ more nodes -Mechanical buy pressure on RPL (thin supply) by stakers who need to hold it Let's dive in🧵

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Tom Dunleavy

9 months

CCIP transaction volumes continue to be low. I think this speaks more to the long adoption/integration time for the over 100 partnerships @chainlink has vs no PMF. Will take some time but this tech is likely to be a backbone of the industry for years to come.

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

This is where we are at in crypto at the moment

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

Is the merge rally stronger than poor macro conditions? Big week for earnings (FANGs report). Big week for macro (Fed IR decision). Where we are at and the week ahead in macro / crypto in 7 charts

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

Optimism and Arbitrum now have more daily transactions than Avalanche h/t @dantwany

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Tom Dunleavy

1 year

The simple Eth pitch for tradfi Imagine you have a company that keeps an immutable record of commerce. Fees are low and transaction settlement is fast. It makes ~$2B a year in revenue. It has no expenses because it pays "workers" in its own currency it prints. You in?

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

Ethereum has never paused.

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

I was curious how fees for Ethereum were performing during the sell-off (in #ETH terms) so I ran the #'s Largely unchanged from the 2022 average. Very encouraging on the demand for blockspace.

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Tom Dunleavy

6 months

Why does Blackrock care about on chain assets? Simple. Because tokenization of illiquid assets is a $16T opportunity over the next 5 years.

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

The merge is going to bring ~7%-14% yields day one. Just to showcase how conservative the very conservative scenario is (80k fees per month is or current levels)-->Network fees have averaged 200k-300k ETH with a high of 425k historically.

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Tom Dunleavy

9 months

. @solana transactions to the highest levels in ~18 months

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Tom Dunleavy

9 months

BTC ETFs searchable on Fidelity

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

Forgot just how brutal the Terra blowup was for Cosmos

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Tom Dunleavy

1 month

Central bank liquidity injections by the PBOC (China) have correlated with 100%+ moves in BTC. Liquidity is expected to increase drastically in Q4 h/t @JackGreenCrypto

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Tom Dunleavy

4 months

@FSCDems @SECGov Bad take. Keep innovation in the US. Do your job.

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Tom Dunleavy

1 year

~70% of the ETH currently waiting for withdrawals are from Kraken who literally has to withdraw bc they are shutting down staking

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@dunleavy89

Tom Dunleavy

3 years

Excited to announce I am going full time from tradfi to @MessariCrypto . Follow along for some #Crypto takes... likely with macro perspective and context :-)

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Tom Dunleavy

2 months

The ETH ETF is going to take in MASSIVE flows the next 5 months. I predict $8-10B in net inflows by the end of the year. A much bigger number than others. What has me so bullish? What does this mean for price? The ETH ETF vs the BTC ETH setup is much more attractive. We

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Tom Dunleavy

8 months

Gold flow consistently moving out while btc flows move in

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@dunleavy89

Tom Dunleavy

2 years

I think @0xPolygon has legit every narrative atm -Fundamentals? Active addresses up ~90% QoQ -Token dist? ~90%+ unlocked/distributed -ZK? zkEVM on testnet -DeSo? @LensProtocol there -Institutions are coming? Starbucks/insta NFTS. Hamilton Lane tokenized fund.

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Tom Dunleavy

6 months

@blknoiz06 Lol. Solana has been up 364.9 of the last 365 days

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@dunleavy89

Tom Dunleavy

1 year

You need an average salary of $115k to buy the median priced home in the US. This rate has more than doubled in the last 10 years.

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

The top 300 VCs in crypto via @ManoppoMarco

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docs.google.com

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@dunleavy89

Tom Dunleavy

10 months

@DeFi_Dad @13yroldwithcc Uninformed voters who just voted their party

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Tom Dunleavy

1 year

Its crazy how decentralized compute costs are already 10x lower than the cost of centralized providers If you want to naively bet on AI just buy a basic of @akashnetAI , @Livepeer , @gensynai , @rendernetwork and wake up very happy in 5 years. h/t @Old_Samster

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Tom Dunleavy

9 months

The @Bitcoin ETF is NOT a sell-the-news event. Max inflows coming. Why? 1. Huge marketing push from 12 of the biggest names in finance (likely $100m+. RIP Superbowl and fox news ads) 2. RIAs are now earn their 1% fee on crypto and can entertain their clients crypto fantasies

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

NFA but Rune fundamentals look really strong atm. (1/3)THORChain has a unique security model where node operators must bond 2x the value of non-RUNE assets in the lp. This results in $3 of RUNE being locked for every $1 of non-RUNE value added onto the network.

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

Why is no one talking about the 6th ranked chain in terms of TVL and the cheapest L1 on a MCAP/TVL basis? A quick🧵on Fantom

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Tom Dunleavy

6 months

@litcapital @JoeyPigskins You dont say

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

The average cost of sending money internationally is 6%, according to the world bank, or $16B a year in fees. Stablecoins are effectively free. This is crypto's most simple and straightforward use case at the moment. Source: .

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Tom Dunleavy

8 months

. @KoiiNetwork up to 47k TPS leveraging the Solana tech stack but optimizing for DEPIN and AI. You can earn already own $KOII today in the background by leveraging your unused compute. Recommend checking it out if you are interested in DEPIN.

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

Optimizing an investment portfolio across stocks, bonds, ETH and BTC across 1m trials... the best risk adjusted return is a bond / ETH barbell

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Tom Dunleavy

4 months

Ethereum balance on exchanges at its lowest level EVER, down to 13.7m, or roughly 1/3 of what was available in May 2021. Right before we expect 1-2m in demand from the ETH ETFs. Bullish.

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

How the FED (tries to) slow inflation in one chart

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Tom Dunleavy

4 months

Top 80 holders of the BTC ETF. Alot of familiar names. h/t @cryptotoken_board

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Tom Dunleavy

3 years

My latest on an emerging protocol I think can be a top player in the L1 space alongside #ETH competing directly with #SOL , #AVAX , #LUNA --> #NEAR "NEAR seems like the ETH2 roadmap actually implemented" - @naval (The L1 Wars Twitter Space via @cmsintern )

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

Pretty big mystery why folks coming into crypto from tradfi are usually attracted to Ethereum

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

The founder of the AI company Perplexity (and former OpenAI research scientist) Aravind Srinivas recently noted that search assisted by LLMs like ChatGPT could cost 7x-8x as much as a normal search The decentralized compute bull case is in inning 1 for @RenderToken / @akashnet_ +

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

Video games generated $165 billion in revenue in 2020 and $180 billion in 2021. More than half of that is on mobile games. Its probably not this year or maybe even next but eventually GameFi is going to be a large share of this.

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

GM. Get that ☕️ going and wake up to this OG you've been sleeping on SNX daily revs are up ~700% since June. Price? Only up 30%. Still 90% off ATHs. Wait that rev must not go back to stakeholders right? Nope 100% back to SNX stakers. Inflation? Nada. 2.5% starting next year 👇

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Tom Dunleavy

1 year

Crypto market cap to overall active addresses is at the lowest level in three years Never has actually onchain activity been so undervalued

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Tom Dunleavy

2 years

Roughly 1.8M ETH is staked through Coinbase. Coinbase charges a 25% commission for staking tokens on behalf of customers. If we assume a 10% yield on staked ETH thats 45k ETH or ~$90M just in revenue that gets added bc of the merge.

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Tom Dunleavy

7 months

Bitcoin ETF inflows are 8x that of gold in 1/10th the time frame h/t @matthew_sigel

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Tom Dunleavy

1 year

Cosmos is impossible to use even for crypto natives (and I love many of the chains over there) Wanted to get from AKT to SOL. Had to move AKT to Osmosis AKT. Osmosis AKT to Osmosis ATOM. Osmosis ATOM to Cosmos ATOM. Send to CB. Buy SOL. Oh and you need gas on all of those

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Tom Dunleavy

1 year

Just opened my new @solana mobile and @aeyakovenko wasn't lying it is fantastic. Big screen, quick processing and great camera. Blows my galaxy s22 out of the water... and of course is crypt native 😁 Excited for the use cases this phone can open up.

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Tom Dunleavy

1 year

~70% of the ETH currently waiting for withdrawals are from Kraken who literally has to withdraw

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