@investing_bear
and I (self proclaimed bad boys of Fintwit) are back in action for episode 16 of Faces For Spaces with Drowsy and Bear.
On this episode we will be chatting with senior
@themotleyfool
analyst and summertime spokesperson
@convictionhold
.
Within the last week…
Druckenmiller's Duquesne Family Office triples $DDOG holding to 700,000+ shares
Independent Director at $DDOG buys over 1 million shares (70 million dollars).
Someone knows something and this dog has a lot of bite left.
Looking back on some of my 10-20 baggers, like $NVDA, $AMZN, $MTCH, $SHOP, the 🔑s to success:
1. Took a starter position early
2. Bought on significant pullbacks, especially post good earnings
3. Actively did nothing
Easy? Not at all.
Simple? The game plan is out in the open.
Best bud asked what I was buying. My response $ZS at the $220 level and some $MELI.
I asked him same question. His answer: every 5% drop I buy $VTI, and I buy my top plays $AAPL, $MA, $SHOP whenever it drops 10-20%. He’s beaten the S&P last 3 years.
Maybe it is that simple? 🤷♂️
With $NVDA crossing $1,000 a share it has become a 100 bagger for me. I’ve waited a long time to tweet that.
Here’s how I did it:
1. I didn’t do anything
2. Jensen did. He created a generational company
3. While he was doing that, I tweeted about his apparel and Denny’s
For now seems like buying awesome growth plays like $DDOG, $NET, $S, $ZS, and $OKTA two weeks ago was a nice pivot. Up 10-15% since then.
Not calling a bottom, but with some massive earnings coming (see $BILL for reference), think this trend continues.
Adding accordingly.
Biggest bets for me going into 2023 sub 45 billion MC (aka not named $AMZN, $AAPL, or $MSFT)
$AXON - 12 bil MC
$MELI - 44 bil MC
$CRWD - 23 bil
$TTD - 22 bil MC
$CELH - 8 bil MC
All great CEOs. Accelerating growth. Small enough MC to be hopeful 10 bagger from here. 🤞
I’m case you were looking for good companies at diff rev growth levels, here’s top of my add list (I’m long all of Em’ too):
70%+ - $MNDY and $DDOG
60%+ - $MELI and $APPS
50%+ - $NET
40%+ - $SHOP
30%+ - $AXON
20%+ - $MTCH
What about you guys?
Hard not to buy $TTD on every dip (and go ham when it drops 10%+). In fact may add a bit today even though a top 10 for me already.
What about you? What’s that one company you just can’t stop adding?
A good friend and a solid LT investor:
“I’ve been buying $AAPL, $V, $MA, $MSFT, and others. All these companies will be around years from now, will survive any recession, and are doing fine.”
Pretty simple thesis. Time will tell if that’s the move.
Finally opening up an account for the lil one. Decided to pick 5 stocks riding some awesome secular trends. Tried to get a mix of industries, market caps, and risk.
$UPST (AI)
$SHOP (e-commerce)
$RDFN (real estate)
$DIS (streaming)
$CRWD (cyber security)
Thoughts? Suggestions?
Bold predictions for 2023:
1. Big Tech Rides Again- $AAPL, $AMZN, $GOOG, and $MSFT outperform $SPY
2. Semis Continue to struggle - $NVDA, $AMD
3. Some Resilience in Top SaaS: $DDOG hits $150, $CRWD to $180
4. $VTI Positive in 2023 and CPI Sub 5%
What about yours?
If data is the new oil, I just bought a starter spot on the best data “refinery” I could find… $PLTR
The risk-reward I think strongly favors this first mover with huge commercial opportunities!
Thanks
@Mayhem4Markets
@rhemrajani9
@DominicRinaldi9
and others for their work!
Roy’s pick three are an awesome cross-section of investing! Nice job as always.
Welcome your pick 3s! And let’s see how it goes!
Mine:
$AXON - doubled TAM, secular trend
$ZI - “every company seeks to get better”, SaaS
$APPS - the pieces are now just put together.
My 2022 pick of 3 stocks for any portfolio. These 3 diverse companies can offer strength, stability, and growth to your portfolio. Whether your worried about a bear market or believe in a continued bull market, I believe these companies are positioned to beat the market!
Been investing for 11 years in individual stocks. The most important thing I’ve learned is the market overshoots to the upside and downside but overall marches higher.
For LT investors, everything else is secondary and mostly noise.
Top 5: $NVDA, $CRWD, $AMZN, $TTD, $AAPL
If you’ve withstood being down 10%, 20%, 30%, or even 40% over the past few months and held tight or added…. Buy yourself a beer this weekend (probably low end cause “In this economy?”)
You are doing it right and have become a better LT investor! 🤔💡
To all who followed me along this $AXON journey for the past 3 years here and many more years in real life…
Here’s to you!
•Cloud and Services revenue grows 52% to $561 million
•Annual recurring revenue grows 47% to $697 million
•Annual rev guidance 20% to 24%
What kind of investor are you?
I’m the kind…. When my CFA recommends me selling some of my longest held winners like $AMZN because “the market probably will crash soon”… I say “you’ll have to pry the shares from my cold dead hands” and hang up. (Actually happened)
2023 Review
My returns: +79.3%
S&P: +24.7%
Top ten:
$NVDA
$CRWD
$AXON
$MELI
$AMZN
$TTD
$AAPL
$MSFT
$CELH
$MA
Final commentary: What a bounce. The same investor who was up big was down 40% last yr. This is just a snapshot in a long, obsessive investing career. Cheers to all.
November Review
Nov return: +16.6%
S&P: +7.8%
YTD: +69.6%
S&P: +19.5%
Top ten:
$NVDA
$CRWD
$AXON
$MELI
$AMZN
$TTD
$AAPL
$MSFT
$CELH
$ZS
Adds: None
Sales: None
Comments: What a month. Am the same investor down 40% last yr. Some amazing companies continue to excel. Hang tough!
Kinda crazy that $SHOP has 3x the market cap of $MELI. Think 5 years from now our recent buying of $MELI will look amazing. (And $SHOP will be closing in on a trillion MC).
Ya a bit bold but $MELI is trading at a ridiculous discount. And $SHOP is a monster.
A little over a year later…
$MELI then $745, today $1330
$AXON then $92, today $211
$TTD then $48, today $74
Great companies tend to stay in motion. Especially with founders at the helm.
Give them some leash, actively monitor, and stick with em’.
My top conviction plays (outside of FAANG and $CRWD):
$MELI
$AXON
$TTD
What do they have in common?
- Led by excellent founder 🫡
- Leader in their space 💪
- Heavily investing to expand their dominance 💰
- Riding secular 🌊 and barely scratching surface of their TAM
My investing thesis for $COST:
I arrived 15 minutes before it opened and there was already a 200+ person line waiting for it to open like it was the Magic Kingdom.
What recession?
$CRWD hitting $300 (1 year ago $104 and change)
$NVDA hitting $600 (1 year ago $192)
Yes, they got absolutely destroyed in 2022, but still just mind blowing.
$AXON Director buying $4 million worth of shares on the open market…. Uhhh yes please. 👀
Dozens of reasons to sell… pretty much only one reason for an insider to buy (especially one who has bought $14 million in last 7 months).
I’m likely to add soon too.
Speaking of portfolio concentration…
$NVDA surpasses 20% of my portfolio for the first time.
2. $CRWD at 13%
3. $AXON at 10%
4. $MELI at 9%
5. $AMZN at 7%
(Smallest 5, all sub 1%)
16. $SE
17. $SMCI
18. $AEHR
19. $HD
20. $TSLA
Holy smokes did $AXON hulk smash. Been pounding table on $AXON for years and we still have live one folks!
Above my expectations:
- beat, beat, sizable raise ✅
- > 60% cloud growth, NRR up ✅
- Adoptions of new taser going well ✅
- Gross margins stable ✅
- New AI platform✅
Ahead of $AXON ER on Tuesday, here’s what I hope for:
- Humming Q (beat, beat, slight raise)
- >50% cloud growth
- Positive comments on adoption of newest taser
- Gross margins flat/slight improvement
- Maybe an AI mention or two
- Usual Rick Excitement
Second largest position.
One final thought about $APPS … I see some solid investors are selling based on operating margins concerns. Totally get it.
For me a bet on $APPS a bet on Bill Stone. The guy who took this backwater company to an emerging powerhouse. He says they are stabilizing. I’m holding.
I’ve been saying for years that my three headed growth monster would be $AXON, $MELI, and $TTD.
Pretty sure the monster will continue for years to come
AXON- crazy new products and cloud growing 50%+
MELI- beats on all metrics
TTD - taking share from walled gardens
@BrianFeroldi
1. The market overshoots to the up and downside
2. You don’t have to swing at every pitch
3. Do your own DD
4. Beating the market by a few pts is a win
5. Wait until companies have proven themselves to invest
6. Surround yourself with a wise, smart investing crew
I think people would rather admit they root for Voldemort or like drubbing their toe rather than say they are a proud $TDOC shareholder.
I’ve owned since 2018 and still think they are just now able to put all the pieces together. Maybe I’m just a hopeful bag holder 🤷♂️
$MELI Q3 GAAP EPS of $2.56 beats by $0.24; Revenue of $2.69B (+44.6% Y/Y) misses by $10M.
Thank goodness… good companies tend to keep producing. 44% growth in this economy?
Long $MELI, top 5 play.
I finally made the tough, tough decision to depart with my $SKLZ investment. Pains me to have to figure out where I can move the $27 dollars and to think of finding as lucrative an investment opportunity as I had with $SKLZ.
A must read for $APPS gang!
I’ve done some 🧵s on the company before but
@thinking_stocks
write up is on another level. He eloquently explains the vast potential for $APPS (while also calling out old notions of the comp. and the risks). I’m long, top 10
$DDOG up 10% today. This dog has a lot of bite left.
Probably news of insider buying, tactically oversold, and general tech move.
Just wait until this 🐶 meets macro tailwinds… 🚀
November Review
Nov return: +16.6%
S&P: +7.8%
YTD: +69.6%
S&P: +19.5%
Top ten:
$NVDA
$CRWD
$AXON
$MELI
$AMZN
$TTD
$AAPL
$MSFT
$CELH
$ZS
Adds: None
Sales: None
Comments: What a month. Am the same investor down 40% last yr. Some amazing companies continue to excel. Hang tough!
My top three holdings: $NVDA, $CRWD, and $AXON now make up approaching 40% of my portfolio.
I’m not losing sleep yet. Individually I have high conviction in each of these companies. These are market leaders.
I’m likely to hold through and let winners run, although may trim
Looking back on 2023…
Company I was most excited for: $NVDA and $AXON
Company I was most disappointed in: $OKTA (not even close)
Company I don’t own but top of watch list: $IOT (bonus: company I want more of: $ZS)
Company I was most confused by: $AEHR
What about you all?
Finally made it through $APPS ER. Looked solid to me. Seems like a mid cap that’s slowly putting pieces together for long standing growth. Some macro headwinds but company exogenous.
Holding my shares.
Thoughts?
@TomSmith838
@Invesquotes
@BluSuitDillon
@FundasyInvestor
Still excited for $TMDX. A company saving lives and literally buying planes so they can save more.
(Plus, raising guidance by the most it ever had ain’t bad)
Top 5 holdings (50%)
$NVDA (18%)
$AXON (9%)
$TTD (8%)
$MELI (8%)
$AMZN (7%)
A bit apprehensive about such a large position in $NVDA but believe in the company and I’ll want more in the future.
Other than that, loved the ERs from the other 4 (especially $AXON, $TTD, and $MELI)
Top 5 (47% of port.)
$AXON (13%)
$NVDA (10%)
$MELI (9%)
$AMZN (8%)
$AAPL (7.5%)
Pretty concentrated now, maybe a bit too much. Consolidating around my top ideas. I want to make sure my conviction matches my positioning. My top 10 is 71% of total portfolio.
2022 has been the worst year for the S&P since 2008 (and it’s the worst year for the Nasdaq since 2002).
If you are a LT investor and made it this far and haven’t blown up, congrats.
Remember your training. This is why you’ve repeated Warren Buffett quotes ad nauseam for years.
And we have a new leader!
Times management mentioned artificial intelligence or AI in most recent earnings call:
$NVDA 46 times
$GOOG 38 times
$META 37 times
$MSFT 30 times
$PANW 30 times
$ANET 23 times
$NET 19 times
$UPST 19 times
$MNDY 8 times
$AAPL 2 times
$AMZN 0 times
$AXON seemingly getting swept up in SaaS is dead narrative… despite its software offerings are exploding.
Getting interesting… already a 9% position but could see adding a bit.
Welp… if you ever thought you missed the boat on some of the World’s greatest growth companies a misunderstood earnings report is about as good of an opportunity as any to dip a toe in!
$PINS $TDOC $AMZN $PYPL to name a few.
My portfolio hit a new all-time high, surpassing the 2021 highs. That’s neat.
But more importantly, the bigger lesson was, it took withstanding a 48% decimation to finally claw my way back and holding 3 years.
Could’ve done things a bit diff. But long term perspective was key.
Rather than focusing on the day to day bloodbath, below is my top ten heading into the WAY more important earning season. I still have high conviction in em’:
$NVDA
$CRWD
$AMZN
$MELI
$TTD
$MTCH
$AXON
$APPS
$TDOC
$SE
Bill f***ing Stone bringing the hammer. $APPS
- “I’m more excited about the company than 2 months ago”
- “our tech is the best. Our strategy is winning. We just got to go out and get it”
- “poised to take out share of 100B TAM”
- “ $AAPL IDFA decisions actually helps us”
Someone asked for my worst investment… here it is in interest of learning.
Made a four digit investment in $SKLZ which is now worth $40.78… down 96.77%.
I learned a lot: slowly build positions (which I did), stop losses, avoid fomo, best ideas may be in port already. 🤦♂️🧐
Me in 2020: I had 1 stock only up 47%
Me in 2022: I now have 4 positions $SKLZ, $ATER, $CURI, $NVTA down 80%.
I learned:
- small starter spots are key to minimizing damage
- speculation in good times is fun… in bad times is demoralizing
- take the extra look before buying
Feb ‘24 - Port. Review
Port: +12.2%
S&P: +3.9%
YTD: +23.7%
S&P: +7.5%
Top 10 (80%)
$NVDA
$CRWD
$AXON
$AMZN
$MELI
$TTD
$CELH
$AAPL
$MSFT
$MA
Buys: $MELI
Sales: $SMCI
Comments: So far earnings are great. Up 102% since Jan ‘23 (down 40% in ‘22). Hanging on, hope you are too!
January 2024 - Portfolio Review
Port: +7.2%
S&P: +2.2%
Top 10 (68%)
$NVDA
$CRWD
$AXON
$MELI
$AMZN
$TTD
$AAPL
$MSFT
$CELH
$MA
Buys: n/a
Sales: $AEHR, $OKTA
Commentary: So far crowded CRWD and NVDA trade fuel gains. Earnings will be major test. Hope all are off to good start!
Man did people try to dunk on me for saying I’m excited to keep buying $TTD, albeit expensive vals, which I’ve been doing so since 2017 and it’s trounced the market.
And who knows if “it’s just a bull market” or value is in. Time will tell. And if your style works for you 👏
Grocery store manager sees me three aisles away. He casually walks my way and goes “ $CELH is selling just fine” and continues on his way.
Perhaps the best sweet nothing I’ve ever received.
In 2016, I had pitched my friend $NVDA. He did about 12 minutes of research and took a position.
Fast forward to yesterday:
Me: “How about $NVDA?”
Him: “The computer company?” Opens acct for 1st time in a yr. “Holy sh*t it’s 18% of my portfolio!”
Sometimes luck is the best.
Long $ZS since Mar. ‘18. This thing is a 🐎.
“While many Public SaaS companies are happy to get to Rule-of-40, we surpassed the Rule-of-80 for the Q and for the full year.”
“We believe periods of macro uncertainty can accelerate adoption of disruptive technologies like ours”🚀
I’m now up 77% YTD in 2023. That’s cool.
I was down 40% in 2022. Less cool.
Since Jan 1, 2022, I’m up 6% while the S&P is down 4%. A 10% beat for a wild, wild ride.
Investing isn’t easy. Investing is a roller coaster and then some. Just hang on. Hopefully brighter times ahead.
Back to beating the S&P over a five year period. 🥳 Whatever happens next.
This following dumb fomo moves in 2021 (and beating market over 10 years).
Key to success?
Conviction. And just hold good companies.
Top 5:
$NVDA (18%)
$AXON (10%)
$CRWD (9%)
$TTD (7%)
$MELI (5%)
Ended up buying more $ZS. Near perfect ER and a company with incredible industry and govt contract fueled tail winds!
Also listened to
@MotleyFoolMoney
interview of $TTD CEO Jeff Green. Remind me again why I’m not 100% $TTD? 🤪🤔
Top five spot and likely will add.
Man today felt good for $CRWD longs.
Buying before 2021 craze, holding through it, holding through the downturn and SaaS implosion, and holding through crazy SaaS expectations and some taken to the woodshed.
Now a 12% spot for me.
1st move of 2024: Finally selling out of $OKTA.
1st bought in 2018. Bought below current prices and way above. Selling at 17% loss which underperformed $SPY over 5 yr time period by 6 rocket emojis.
OKTA defensive lapses can no longer breach my heart. Good riddance.
Learned lots along the way and I try to be as transparent as possible.
Annualized rate of return:
1 yr: +88.6% (S&P +30.5%)
5 yr: +17.5% (S&P +14%)
10 yr: +16% (S&P +12.7%)
Best moves: $NVDA, $AXON
Worst moves: $UPST, $SKLZ (and many, many more)
As of this week, have held three stocks for 10+ years ( $AMZN, $AAPL, $MSFT). Bought plenty of losers along the way, too.
As long as the company continues to operate I constantly think “when in doubt, hold”. Thats got me through lots of narrative noise.
Many investors: I invest in riskier companies because I’m young. I’ve got like 30 years to make it back what I’ve lost.
Growth stocks: Challenge accepted.
The most important slides from $AXON. Basically the investing thesis: provides streamlined ability to capture and use in court; massive TAM opportunity; healthy growth. Oh and massive moat.
$AXON up 15% pm
$CELH up 16% pm
Great companies tend to stay in motion.
- throughout the quarter you get hints at how well they are doing. Nielsen for $CELH and tracking deals and great IR team from $AXON
Don’t always have great days. Gotta celebrate a bit when we do.
Did a little big of shopping… $MELI and $RBLX.
$MELI is at levels seen in July 2020… despite two years of incredible changes and growth in Pago and logistics.
@MaxTheComrade
Could things go lower? Probably. Do I think I got a company worth a lot more than 55 bil MC? Yes.
Ended up earlier selling my small starter position in $SMCI.
Bought at $245. 4x return.
May have panicked a bit, but hit the lotto on a starter position on, realistically, a company I don’t fully understand in an industry that is so hard to value right now.
Will watch closely.
- $TGT warning theft cost them $1.1 bil since 2022
- $HD, $WMT, $DLTR, $LOW all warning theft will hit profitability
- Cali spending $267 mil to combat crime
If only there was a company that could help….There is and it’s $AXON. This could be its next growth driver.
👇
My top conviction plays (outside of FAANG and $CRWD):
$MELI
$AXON
$TTD
What do they have in common?
- Led by excellent founder 🫡
- Leader in their space 💪
- Heavily investing to expand their dominance 💰
- Riding secular 🌊 and barely scratching surface of their TAM
What have we learned so far this earning season?
1. The strongest companies, with the biggest moats/advantages are doing well. $AXON $MELI $TTD
2. If we are in a economic tailspin, we aren’t seeing it impact things much… yet. $AAPL $AMZN $MSFT
As $AMZN and $GOOG approach sub 1 trillion MC (and 2 year lows around $90)… I’m not sure there’s been a better time in the last few years to buy some of the biggest and most resilient companies at these values.
I’ve been adding to $GOOG and likely will add to big tech.