In December, on the podcast, when CPI growth was 3.4%, I predicted that inflation would be zero by the end of the summer. You can watch this two-minute clip for my reasoning, which is that as the money supply drops, so does inflation:
As of June 2024, CPI
Tiff isn't raising rates tomorrow.
The Premiers know that.
But, by sending a letter asking him not to do something he wasn't going to do anyway,
they look like they are sticking up for the people.
That's politics, people.
Two premiers have sent letters to Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem urging the central bank to halt rate hikes ahead of its next rate decision tomorrow.
In my 35 years in the insolvency business, one thing is certain: virtually everyone I’ve ever met with is up to date on their rent. Everyone needs a place to live, and the payment automatically comes out on the first of the month, so rent is the last payment you get behind on.
/1
The Canadian 5-year bond yield has collapsed to 2.791%.
That's the bond that directly impacts 5-year mortgage rates.
Mortgage rates have already started to fall.
That sounds like good news.
But the reason they are falling is a recession is coming.
That's not good news.
Until now.
We are meeting with an increasing number of debtors who are behind on their rent.
Their loan payments come out on payday, so by the first of the month, their bank account is short, and rent bounces.
I’ve never seen it this bad.
/END
Are high mortgage rates causing an increase in personal insolvencies?
No.
Not yet.
But the wave is starting.
Here’s what the HoyesMichalos team is seeing:
/1
Since many of you have commented on it, here's the data I stole from
@ronmortgageguy
's mortgage calculator: as discussed with
@nasmadotali
starting here:
The point:
I have no idea how anyone can afford a house.
THREAD:
DON’T BELIEVE THE TALKING HEADS!
It pisses me off to see the “experts” on TV trying to explain why personal insolvencies are up almost 16% in Ontario so far this year, the largest increase in about a decade.
They have no clue.
/1
For the first time ever, Canadians carry over $100 billion in credit card debt.
Many are using credit to survive.
You can interpret from the chart what this will do to personal insolvency rates.
PREDICTION:
The Canada 5-Year Government Bond Yield peaked at 11:45 a.m. on October 3.
It's all downhill from here, which means that 5 year fixed mortgage rates have peaked (or will in the next week or two).
Unless I'm wrong, which happens all the time.
We shall see.
It is devasting for most people to have their mortgage payment DOUBLE, but I'm hearing these stories.
Which is why I don't believe in "soft landing" and "no recession."
When that much spending power is removed from the economy, that's a guaranteed recession.
Some payments will increase as little as 25% with some approaching 100% if the borrowers were in Static Payment Variable products
Average increase around 45%
What will happen?
As we have previously discussed borrowers can request increased amortization and likely get it
5/
I believe we are already in a recession.
Ecomomists disagree.
They say unemployment is low, so all is good.
I disagree.
Unemployment is a LAGGING indicator.
Employers start layoffs when the recession is in full force, not at the start.
/1
The most important minute and a half from this week’s podcast:
@BenRabidoux
predicts that within a month banks will kill your
#HELOC
“You thought you had a $200K limit? No you don’t”
Full answer starts at 44:48 on all podcast apps, and here:
#DFI30
Costco opens at 9:00 am.
Today, there was a long lineup at 8:45 am.
They opened the doors at 8:50 am!
Would other stores do that?
The staff appear both helpful and happy.
That's why there is a lineup at 8:45 am, and the store is packed all day.
I've now talked to numerous people, here in Ontario, whose companies have a relationship with SVB.
I'm told lots of high tech companies in Kitchener-Waterloo bank with them (at least in part).
This is not just a USA story.
It appears this may also be a Canadian story.
Silicon Valley Bank, a big bank in the American high-tech world, just went under:
First US Bank to go down since October, 2022.
Our banking system in Canada is different, so this is unlikely to happen here.
(I assume).
Interest rates are way up.
Inflation is high.
Real estate is falling.
What’s the next shoe to drop?
What’s the next “headwind” that will hit the Canadian economy?
CEBA Loan repayments.
/1
"Interest rates change. The price you paid for the house is forever."
"If your renewal is next year, start thinking about it now."
Lots of practical advice from
@ronmortgageguy
on Debt Free in 30:
I can see 70 offices in the building across the street from my office at Yonge & King.
The lights are OFF in 34 of them.
At noon.
On a weekday.
In downtown Toronto.
The story so far:
Husband and wife, and his parents, agreed to by a house for $1.15 million in spring, 2022.
They have a $40,000 down payment.
No problem!
/1
Consumer insolvencies will continue to grow.
If real estate prices collapse the downpour will become a deluge.
Here’s the full story, the truth, not the spin from the uninformed:
/RANT OVER I feel better now….
This is why I am of the opinion that ALL levels of government, provincial and federal, have failed us.
I can't leave my basement, but we continue to import cases from outside of Canada?
(I'm not a doctor).
(But I do have a brain).
MASSIVE WAVE OF BUSINESS BANKRUPTCIES INCOMING!!!!
(I’m working on my clickbait titles; pretty good, eh?)
I estimate that 200,000 businesses did not repay their CEBA loan.
If 10% of them eventually file bankruptcy, that’s 20,000 bankruptcies.
/1
A storm is brewing, and we're not talking about the weather!
The CEBA loan repayment deadline is approaching (January 18th), and small businesses are under pressure!
What happens if you can't repay your CEBA loan? ⤵️
With the end of the summer vacation season, August is generally a slow month for us.
This year, it was our busiest month of the year (so far).
In my 24 years at Hoyes Michalos, that has never happened.
(So no, we are not in a "soft landing").
PREDICTION:
When Statistics Canada releases the debt numbers this week, total credit card balances in Canada will exceed $100 billion for the first time ever.
(I know, easy prediction, we're at $99 billion now ).
The union wants a 13.5% wage bump over 3 years.
The feds offered 9%, a difference of 4.5%.
4.5% of 365 days is 16.4 days, so if the strike ends on May 7, the government saves 4.5% on wages, and the union can “win” by getting a 13.5% raise.
So the strike ends May 7?
He's back.
@ronmortgageguy
On the podcast.
Now.
Here:
and all podcasting apps:
Debt Free in 30
In this clip, Ron explains payment increases, and
extend and pretend.
I talked to 4 people today who are "starting over" career-wise, including:
- leaving health care to get a business degree
- leaving the restaurant business to be a trucker
Major, life-changing decisions.
Very stressful.
I admire their guts.
The worst part of winter is not the cold.
It's the lack of daylight.
But if my understanding of how it works, starting today we get more daylight.
So, in my books, that's a win.
CRA started pursuing big
#CERB
overpayments last year.
Yesterday they sent out a lot of Notice of Redetermination for COVID-19 benefits to people who owed smaller amounts ($4,000 or less from what I'm seeing).
CERB was 3 years ago.
CRA is not fast, but they eventually do it.
I don't discuss religion on Twitter.
But, for those who celebrate,
July 12 is Bank of Canada Interest Rate Day.
What will they do?
I have no idea.
But I will do what everyone else does and share a massive thread with some disjointed and meandering thoughts.
/1
You asked for it.
You got it.
Just recorded it.
This Saturday,
@ronmortgageguy
is on the podcast, talking about the current state of the mortgage world.
Neither of us looks particularly happy about it.
I want
@ronmortgageguy
to start his own podcast.
He'll be my guest tomorrow on Debt Free in 30:
I have taken the liberty of creating a teaser for his new podcast.
Here it is.
Tell him you want to watch his podcast!
#AngryMortgage
If no creditors vote on a consumer proposal, it is deemed to be accepted.
If you have a lot of tax debt and you are considering filing a consumer proposal, now would be a good time to contact me, because if CRA is on strike and can't vote, your CP has a higher chance of approval.
As expected, no rate increase.
What does it mean?
Nothing, because today is not the issue.
The problem is that 602 days since the raises started.
The problem is the CUMULATIVE impact of rate hikes.
They are being felt.
Not fun times if you have a lot of debt.
The Canada 5-Year government bond yield (which
@ronmortgageguy
taught me is highly correlated to mortgage rates), is down 84 basis points since April 26.
We could be lower than a "3 handle" tomorrow.
But we aren't in a recession?
JUST RELEASED:
The Savings Rate in Canada INCREASED in Q3.
Any theories on how this is possible, given that debt is also at record levels?
Source: Statistics Canada:
I think it was
@ronmortgageguy
who told me that Canadian mortgage rates are highly correlated with the 10 year bond yield.
In 5 days the 10 year bond yield has dropped by over half of a percent (over 60 bps).
Lower rates ahead?
Or a temporary blip?
Yes, payday lenders will let you borrow against your
#CERB
I strongly advise against that, but it's happening.
That's why the title of this week's podcast is:
"The Vultures are Circling"
Creditors can’t garnishee wages if you don’t have any!
If only we had a provincial or federal government willing to enforce our existing laws to prevent vulnerable people from being financially abused.
Oh well, one can dream……
/END
I worked in my Toronto office, at Yonge & King, on Wednesday and Thursday.
While there have always been homeless people sleeping on the streets, there appear to be more people experiencing serious mental distress.
/1
Got a refund cheque from CRA for my business, so went to the bank and deposited at a teller. She said "there will be a 5 day hold".
???
Even the banks don't trust CRA?
/1
Because inflation is high, the Bank of Canada can’t lower interest rates.
The overall CPI was up 2.9% in January (12-month change).
The “basket weight” of mortgage interest is 3.8% of CPI.
Mortgage interest was up 27.4% in the last 12 months.
/1
My average client spends 40% of their income on housing costs.
95% of my clients are renters, not homeowners.
Rental rates in Ontario in October were up 9.1% compared to last October.
Do you see the problem?
/8
The round trip back to the bottom is almost complete.
Household Saving Rate:
2018: 0% (we saved nothing)
2020 Q1: 26.5% (lockdowns, couldn't spend, so big savings)
2023 Q1: 2.9%
Prediction: as the recession takes hold, the savings rate will be close to 0% by year-end
I was born exactly 56 years ago today.
Today is the day of my birth.
As is tradition, to prove that I am not getting older, I will run a half marathon.
21.1 km.
Not a race.
Just me, on the trail.
/1
All four of them are working 16 hours/day so they are barely covering the payments.
How many people will choose to work 16 hours/day for the next 5 to 10 years until they are no longer under water?
How many will surrender the house, and file a proposal/bankruptcy?
/4
My first question to
@nasmadotali
:
What are you seeing now regarding house prices?
The first part of her answer is in the clip below.
The full answer is on the podcast:
(and the show notes have time stamps if you want to skip ahead).
2. More “I can’t close on my pre-construction deal” calls. The appraised value is less than expected, so they can’t get a sufficient mortgage to close. Many are levering up with unsecured debt to close on the deal, which sets them up for future financial problems.
/3
1. More adult children are moving back in with their (obviously older) parents. This is putting a strain on parents who may have their own financial constraints.
/2
3. More homeowners are walking away from their homes due to higher mortgage payments and living expenses increasing faster than income.
So why are we not seeing a surge in real estate-induced insolvencies?
Timing.
/4
If you stop paying your mortgage today, it will take many months for the lender to foreclose.
Then the lender has to list and sell your house.
If there is a shortfall, the lender may be able to recover the shortfall from CMHC.
Then CMHC has to pursue you for the shortfall.
/5
This ain't no podcast.
It's a full length documentary, two years in the making.
It drops on YouTube on Wednesday, May 8.
Subscribe here now:
And here's a 30-second taste of what you'll see.
If you can afford to buy the jumbo pack of granola bars, no tax.
If cash is tight and you can only afford the 5-pack once a week for your kid's lunch, you pay 13% HST.
As The
@FoodProfessor
explains, low-income Canadians pay higher food taxes.
Full video:
Bankruptcy stats for June were released today.
June consumer insolvencies were 7.3% higher in Ontario than last month.
Doesn't sound like much, but June only had 20 business days (May had 22), so the daily average growth was 18%, equaling growth for the first 6 months of 2024
/1
Good news!
Food inflation is half what it was a year ago.
Bad news:
Food inflation is twice what it was 30 months ago.
Your reference point will determine whether you are happy or not.
(Everyone I talk to: "not").
Low unemployment is irrelevant.
8 out of 10 of my clients are working when they file a consumer proposal or bankruptcy with my firm.
Unemployment is not the core of the problem.
/5
I talk to a lot of people with car loans.
They'd like to get a cheaper car, but since the interest rate on the new loan will be higher than what they have, if they can't merge the old loan into the new, they are stuck.
"Golden Handcuffs" for car loans.
We will know soon enough.
I’ll have more on the mortgage world this Saturday on Debt Free in 30 with
@ronmortgageguy
(and Ron won't be shy to share his opinions).
/END
I’m not smart enough to do an entire podcast on the bond market, but I’ll tell you everything I know, and why it matters.
Let’s say you run a pension fund.
You have $1M in assets, and you need to generate $50K per year need to have enough to pay out the promised pensions.
/1
@doughoyes
can you do a show on the bond market? I'm dying to learn more, do you have any resources? My brain is having trouble comprehending how a bond market can crash and what the implications are.
Mucho appreciato sir!
This is not an April Fools' Day joke:
Huge payday lender (Cash Money) files bankruptcy (actually CCAA, but "bankruptcy" is better clickbait).
Source documents:
News report:
Tomorrow's podcast will be epic.
First-time guest.
(I won't disclose her name, but her initials are
@nasmadotali
)
My first question to her:
"What is going on in the real estate market?"
I suggest you subscribe now so you don't miss it.
I believe it was
@ronmortgageguy
who told me that 5 year bond rates determine mortgage rates.
The 5-year is now over 4%, the highest rate since 2007.
And we all remember what happened in 2008.
#PresentedWithoutElaborateComment
JUST RELEASED:
Consumer insolvencies up 28.5% in September compared to the same month last year.
Year to date up 15.2% in Ontario (9.3% Canada wide).
Pace of growth accelerating.
Debt bubble imploding.
So answer me this:
If you can’t come up with $40,000, what are the chances you can afford $1,800 per month for 3 years?
Not great, I assume.
That’s why I am already seeing defaults, and I expect a lot more in the new year.
/3
Strange times.
Most of my clients are feeling squeezed.
Groceries going up faster than income.
But I’ve had two clients this week who were able to land better jobs, so their situation has improved.
I have no point; just an observation.
We've hired some new team members over the last few months, so to meet the new people we had a "let's work in the office day" in Kitchener.
It was the first time in over 3 years that the entire head office team was together.
We brought in lunch.
It was great.
JUST RELEASED:
#debt
, HELOCs, and The New World of Mortgage Lending with
@ronmortgageguy
Audio links:
Video:
Here's a clip with Ron's take on HELOCs and down payments on rental properties
FAIR WARNING:
If you are a creditor who has been notified,
twice,
that my client has filed a consumer proposal,
and you keep calling them,
even after promising to stop the calls,
today will not be a good day for you.
Yup.
The BOC is lowering interest rates because they think we are heading into a recession.
Your income may drop, so now is NOT the time to borrow more, even with lower rates.
Take advantage of lower rates to pay DOWN
#debt
.
Bank of Canada cut the rate today.
But just FYI, this will have zero impact on high cost borrowing. Fast financing loans are still going to charge 40% to 60% interest. Credit cards are still going to charge 18% minimum to carry a balance.
#BoC
#ratecut
CMHC is the (quasi) government, and it doesn’t move quickly. It may take them months or years to pursue the borrower, and then the borrower may have no option but to file a consumer proposal or bankruptcy.
/6
Trying to help my 87 year old aunt deal with CRA.
We called the help line.
"All of our agents are busy".
"Call back later".
But they only work until 9-5, so when is later?
If CRA was a business, they would have gone out of business long ago....
Big News!
@ronmortgageguy
announced on the Debt Free in 30 podcast that he is starting his own podcast.
Here's the exact moment he reveals his plans for a Not Safe for Work (?) Mortgage podcast:
(This should be good).
A big proposal from yesterday's budget that did not get much media attention:
A crackdown on predatory lending:
- lowering the Criminal Code rate of interest
- lowering the rate on payday loans
The details:
/1
I predicted 30% growth in insolvencies in 2024.
JUST RELEASED:
As expected, in January, consumer insolvencies increased by 30.4% in Ontario and 23.5% in Canada.
More details here:
JUST RELEASED:
Ontario consumer insolvencies were up 29.1% in September compared to a year ago, the 5th straight month of strong double-digit growth.
Could be a trend....
More details here:
Disturbing phone call.
Woman, who had medical issues, incurred debt.
Googled, and found an unlicensed debt consultant.
They charged her $1,600 to refer her to a Licensed Trustee, who is also clearly evil.
They filed a consumer proposal.
/1
Just had another one.
$17,000 in total debt, debtor didn't want to go bankrupt; wants to pay something, so offered $6,000 ($100 x 60 months). No assets. No surplus in a bankruptcy.
Big Bank says: we want $15,000! ($250 per month)!
Yup, Big Bank really trying to help.....
Are creditors being more reasonable now?
Some are, but the Biggest Bank said no to a consumer proposal where we offered 30 cents on the $, and in a bankruptcy they'll get a lot less than that.
And they won't give us a counter offer.
(Fortunately the other creditors said yes).
There is nothing on TV tonight, so I suggest you join the 65,000 other people who have watched our documentary, Debtasized.
It's good:
Here's the trailer:
Saturday.
8:00 am.
@ronmortgageguy
returns to the podcast.
He will share some numbers that will blow your mind.
Like 40%.
Subscribe so you don't miss it.
Debt Free in 30.
My average client spends 31% of their income on personal and living expenses.
Food costs are up 3.4% so far this year (compared to 1.9 in all of last year).
/7
My two sons,
both in their 20s,
with their own apartments,
came for a visit at Christmas.
The younger one left last week.
The older one returned home today.
My wife and I will miss them.
But I will no longer have to take an advance on my line of credit to fund our food bill.....
I've met with three people in debt in the last two days who all mentioned that they saw this story and realized they were paying a lot for essentially worthless insurance.
Thanks to
@squawkfox
and
@cbcErica
for raising this issue; a lot of people are cancelling this insurance.
Saturday.
8:00 am.
@ronmortgageguy
returns to the podcast.
We both make some bold statements, like the one in the clip below.
The rest of the show is even better.
Full show here, Saturday, 8:00 am: