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Doug Hoyes Profile
Doug Hoyes

@doughoyes

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Co-founder, @HoyesMichalos | Host, Debt Free in 30 Podcast | Author, Straight Talk on Your Money | Eliminated over $3.8 billion in #debt since 1999

Ontario, Canada
Joined April 2009
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
10 days
In December, on the podcast, when CPI growth was 3.4%, I predicted that inflation would be zero by the end of the summer. You can watch this two-minute clip for my reasoning, which is that as the money supply drops, so does inflation: As of June 2024, CPI
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
1 year
Tiff isn't raising rates tomorrow. The Premiers know that. But, by sending a letter asking him not to do something he wasn't going to do anyway, they look like they are sticking up for the people. That's politics, people.
@BNNBloomberg
BNN Bloomberg
1 year
Two premiers have sent letters to Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem urging the central bank to halt rate hikes ahead of its next rate decision tomorrow.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 months
In my 35 years in the insolvency business, one thing is certain: virtually everyone I’ve ever met with is up to date on their rent. Everyone needs a place to live, and the payment automatically comes out on the first of the month, so rent is the last payment you get behind on. /1
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 months
Canadian Tire credit card write-off rate: 2021 - 3.81% 2024 - 7.83% Probably nothing.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
1 year
The Canadian 5-year bond yield has collapsed to 2.791%. That's the bond that directly impacts 5-year mortgage rates. Mortgage rates have already started to fall. That sounds like good news. But the reason they are falling is a recession is coming. That's not good news.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
10 months
This isn't good. This meat vendor was at the St. Lawrence Market for forever. Now gone.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 months
Until now. We are meeting with an increasing number of debtors who are behind on their rent. Their loan payments come out on payday, so by the first of the month, their bank account is short, and rent bounces. I’ve never seen it this bad. /END
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 months
Are high mortgage rates causing an increase in personal insolvencies? No. Not yet. But the wave is starting. Here’s what the HoyesMichalos team is seeing: /1
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 years
Since many of you have commented on it, here's the data I stole from @ronmortgageguy 's mortgage calculator: as discussed with @nasmadotali starting here: The point: I have no idea how anyone can afford a house.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
5 years
THREAD: DON’T BELIEVE THE TALKING HEADS! It pisses me off to see the “experts” on TV trying to explain why personal insolvencies are up almost 16% in Ontario so far this year, the largest increase in about a decade. They have no clue. /1
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
9 months
For the first time ever, Canadians carry over $100 billion in credit card debt. Many are using credit to survive. You can interpret from the chart what this will do to personal insolvency rates.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
11 months
PREDICTION: The Canada 5-Year Government Bond Yield peaked at 11:45 a.m. on October 3. It's all downhill from here, which means that 5 year fixed mortgage rates have peaked (or will in the next week or two). Unless I'm wrong, which happens all the time. We shall see.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
11 months
It is devasting for most people to have their mortgage payment DOUBLE, but I'm hearing these stories. Which is why I don't believe in "soft landing" and "no recession." When that much spending power is removed from the economy, that's a guaranteed recession.
@ronmortgageguy
Ron Butler
11 months
Some payments will increase as little as 25% with some approaching 100% if the borrowers were in Static Payment Variable products Average increase around 45% What will happen? As we have previously discussed borrowers can request increased amortization and likely get it 5/
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
1 year
I believe we are already in a recession. Ecomomists disagree. They say unemployment is low, so all is good. I disagree. Unemployment is a LAGGING indicator. Employers start layoffs when the recession is in full force, not at the start. /1
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
4 years
The most important minute and a half from this week’s podcast: @BenRabidoux predicts that within a month banks will kill your #HELOC “You thought you had a $200K limit? No you don’t” Full answer starts at 44:48 on all podcast apps, and here: #DFI30
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
4 months
Costco opens at 9:00 am. Today, there was a long lineup at 8:45 am. They opened the doors at 8:50 am! Would other stores do that? The staff appear both helpful and happy. That's why there is a lineup at 8:45 am, and the store is packed all day.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
8 months
To those who celebrate: Happy TFSA Contribution Day.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
1 year
I've now talked to numerous people, here in Ontario, whose companies have a relationship with SVB. I'm told lots of high tech companies in Kitchener-Waterloo bank with them (at least in part). This is not just a USA story. It appears this may also be a Canadian story.
@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
1 year
Silicon Valley Bank, a big bank in the American high-tech world, just went under: First US Bank to go down since October, 2022. Our banking system in Canada is different, so this is unlikely to happen here. (I assume).
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
11 months
Interest rates are way up. Inflation is high. Real estate is falling. What’s the next shoe to drop? What’s the next “headwind” that will hit the Canadian economy? CEBA Loan repayments. /1
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 years
"Interest rates change. The price you paid for the house is forever." "If your renewal is next year, start thinking about it now." Lots of practical advice from @ronmortgageguy on Debt Free in 30:
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 years
I can see 70 offices in the building across the street from my office at Yonge & King. The lights are OFF in 34 of them. At noon. On a weekday. In downtown Toronto.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 years
Canada. I drove to work at 7:00 am this morning. Bright sunshine, wore sunglasses. Drove home in a snow storm. No need for sunglasses. Canada.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 years
The story so far: Husband and wife, and his parents, agreed to by a house for $1.15 million in spring, 2022. They have a $40,000 down payment. No problem! /1
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
5 years
Consumer insolvencies will continue to grow. If real estate prices collapse the downpour will become a deluge. Here’s the full story, the truth, not the spin from the uninformed: /RANT OVER I feel better now….
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
3 years
This is why I am of the opinion that ALL levels of government, provincial and federal, have failed us. I can't leave my basement, but we continue to import cases from outside of Canada? (I'm not a doctor). (But I do have a brain).
@BenRabidoux
Ben Rabidoux
3 years
Amid surging cases and 'double mutant' variant, flights from India touch down in Canada
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
6 months
MASSIVE WAVE OF BUSINESS BANKRUPTCIES INCOMING!!!! (I’m working on my clickbait titles; pretty good, eh?) I estimate that 200,000 businesses did not repay their CEBA loan. If 10% of them eventually file bankruptcy, that’s 20,000 bankruptcies. /1
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
8 months
Yup. I'm averaging 5 calls a day from people with CEBA loans. (And that's just me, not my entire firm).
@HoyesMichalos
Hoyes Michalos
8 months
A storm is brewing, and we're not talking about the weather! The CEBA loan repayment deadline is approaching (January 18th), and small businesses are under pressure! What happens if you can't repay your CEBA loan? ⤵️
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
4 years
Once Safer Than Gold, Canadian Real Estate Braces for Reckoning Yup. (With comments from me, and @SteveSaretsky , and some other people).
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
1 year
With the end of the summer vacation season, August is generally a slow month for us. This year, it was our busiest month of the year (so far). In my 24 years at Hoyes Michalos, that has never happened. (So no, we are not in a "soft landing").
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
10 months
PREDICTION: When Statistics Canada releases the debt numbers this week, total credit card balances in Canada will exceed $100 billion for the first time ever. (I know, easy prediction, we're at $99 billion now ).
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
1 year
The union wants a 13.5% wage bump over 3 years. The feds offered 9%, a difference of 4.5%. 4.5% of 365 days is 16.4 days, so if the strike ends on May 7, the government saves 4.5% on wages, and the union can “win” by getting a 13.5% raise. So the strike ends May 7?
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 years
He's back. @ronmortgageguy On the podcast. Now. Here: and all podcasting apps: Debt Free in 30 In this clip, Ron explains payment increases, and extend and pretend.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
4 years
I talked to 4 people today who are "starting over" career-wise, including: - leaving health care to get a business degree - leaving the restaurant business to be a trucker Major, life-changing decisions. Very stressful. I admire their guts.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
8 months
The worst part of winter is not the cold. It's the lack of daylight. But if my understanding of how it works, starting today we get more daylight. So, in my books, that's a win.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
10 months
CRA started pursuing big #CERB overpayments last year. Yesterday they sent out a lot of Notice of Redetermination for COVID-19 benefits to people who owed smaller amounts ($4,000 or less from what I'm seeing). CERB was 3 years ago. CRA is not fast, but they eventually do it.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 months
@robertedecan I'm a licensed insolvency trustee. Would you prefer that I tweet about astronomy?
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
1 year
It is not a good sign when my phone is ringing off the hook.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
1 year
I don't discuss religion on Twitter. But, for those who celebrate, July 12 is Bank of Canada Interest Rate Day. What will they do? I have no idea. But I will do what everyone else does and share a massive thread with some disjointed and meandering thoughts. /1
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
4 years
You asked for it. You got it. Just recorded it. This Saturday, @ronmortgageguy is on the podcast, talking about the current state of the mortgage world. Neither of us looks particularly happy about it.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 months
To summarize, the problem is significant, but its full impact will not be obvious for many months or years. /END
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 years
I want @ronmortgageguy to start his own podcast. He'll be my guest tomorrow on Debt Free in 30: I have taken the liberty of creating a teaser for his new podcast. Here it is. Tell him you want to watch his podcast! #AngryMortgage
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
1 year
If no creditors vote on a consumer proposal, it is deemed to be accepted. If you have a lot of tax debt and you are considering filing a consumer proposal, now would be a good time to contact me, because if CRA is on strike and can't vote, your CP has a higher chance of approval.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
10 months
As expected, no rate increase. What does it mean? Nothing, because today is not the issue. The problem is that 602 days since the raises started. The problem is the CUMULATIVE impact of rate hikes. They are being felt. Not fun times if you have a lot of debt.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 months
@this_justen Yes, and we are in the early innings.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
26 days
The Canada 5-Year government bond yield (which @ronmortgageguy taught me is highly correlated to mortgage rates), is down 84 basis points since April 26. We could be lower than a "3 handle" tomorrow. But we aren't in a recession?
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
9 months
JUST RELEASED: The Savings Rate in Canada INCREASED in Q3. Any theories on how this is possible, given that debt is also at record levels? Source: Statistics Canada:
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
1 year
I think it was @ronmortgageguy who told me that Canadian mortgage rates are highly correlated with the 10 year bond yield. In 5 days the 10 year bond yield has dropped by over half of a percent (over 60 bps). Lower rates ahead? Or a temporary blip?
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
4 years
Yes, payday lenders will let you borrow against your #CERB I strongly advise against that, but it's happening. That's why the title of this week's podcast is: "The Vultures are Circling"
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 years
Creditors can’t garnishee wages if you don’t have any! If only we had a provincial or federal government willing to enforce our existing laws to prevent vulnerable people from being financially abused. Oh well, one can dream…… /END
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 years
I worked in my Toronto office, at Yonge & King, on Wednesday and Thursday. While there have always been homeless people sleeping on the streets, there appear to be more people experiencing serious mental distress. /1
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
5 years
Got a refund cheque from CRA for my business, so went to the bank and deposited at a teller. She said "there will be a 5 day hold". ??? Even the banks don't trust CRA? /1
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
6 months
Because inflation is high, the Bank of Canada can’t lower interest rates. The overall CPI was up 2.9% in January (12-month change). The “basket weight” of mortgage interest is 3.8% of CPI. Mortgage interest was up 27.4% in the last 12 months. /1
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
5 years
My average client spends 40% of their income on housing costs. 95% of my clients are renters, not homeowners. Rental rates in Ontario in October were up 9.1% compared to last October. Do you see the problem? /8
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
1 year
The round trip back to the bottom is almost complete. Household Saving Rate: 2018: 0% (we saved nothing) 2020 Q1: 26.5% (lockdowns, couldn't spend, so big savings) 2023 Q1: 2.9% Prediction: as the recession takes hold, the savings rate will be close to 0% by year-end
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
4 years
I was born exactly 56 years ago today. Today is the day of my birth. As is tradition, to prove that I am not getting older, I will run a half marathon. 21.1 km. Not a race. Just me, on the trail. /1
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 years
All four of them are working 16 hours/day so they are barely covering the payments. How many people will choose to work 16 hours/day for the next 5 to 10 years until they are no longer under water? How many will surrender the house, and file a proposal/bankruptcy? /4
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 years
My first question to @nasmadotali : What are you seeing now regarding house prices? The first part of her answer is in the clip below. The full answer is on the podcast: (and the show notes have time stamps if you want to skip ahead).
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 months
2. More “I can’t close on my pre-construction deal” calls. The appraised value is less than expected, so they can’t get a sufficient mortgage to close. Many are levering up with unsecured debt to close on the deal, which sets them up for future financial problems. /3
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
5 years
Wages are up 2.5% so far this year in Canada. So why are insolvencies spiking up? Because expenses are up way more than that. /6
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 months
1. More adult children are moving back in with their (obviously older) parents. This is putting a strain on parents who may have their own financial constraints. /2
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 months
3. More homeowners are walking away from their homes due to higher mortgage payments and living expenses increasing faster than income. So why are we not seeing a surge in real estate-induced insolvencies? Timing. /4
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
6 years
512 sq ft condo in Toronto. The bedroom has a pillar in the middle of it. $720,000 Does that appear crazy to anyone else?
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 months
If you stop paying your mortgage today, it will take many months for the lender to foreclose. Then the lender has to list and sell your house. If there is a shortfall, the lender may be able to recover the shortfall from CMHC. Then CMHC has to pursue you for the shortfall. /5
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
4 months
This ain't no podcast. It's a full length documentary, two years in the making. It drops on YouTube on Wednesday, May 8. Subscribe here now: And here's a 30-second taste of what you'll see.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
1 year
If you can afford to buy the jumbo pack of granola bars, no tax. If cash is tight and you can only afford the 5-pack once a week for your kid's lunch, you pay 13% HST. As The @FoodProfessor explains, low-income Canadians pay higher food taxes. Full video:
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
25 days
Bankruptcy stats for June were released today. June consumer insolvencies were 7.3% higher in Ontario than last month. Doesn't sound like much, but June only had 20 business days (May had 22), so the daily average growth was 18%, equaling growth for the first 6 months of 2024 /1
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
7 months
Good news! Food inflation is half what it was a year ago. Bad news: Food inflation is twice what it was 30 months ago. Your reference point will determine whether you are happy or not. (Everyone I talk to: "not").
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
5 years
Low unemployment is irrelevant. 8 out of 10 of my clients are working when they file a consumer proposal or bankruptcy with my firm. Unemployment is not the core of the problem. /5
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
1 year
I talk to a lot of people with car loans. They'd like to get a cheaper car, but since the interest rate on the new loan will be higher than what they have, if they can't merge the old loan into the new, they are stuck. "Golden Handcuffs" for car loans.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 years
We will know soon enough. I’ll have more on the mortgage world this Saturday on Debt Free in 30 with @ronmortgageguy (and Ron won't be shy to share his opinions). /END
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 years
I’m not smart enough to do an entire podcast on the bond market, but I’ll tell you everything I know, and why it matters. Let’s say you run a pension fund. You have $1M in assets, and you need to generate $50K per year need to have enough to pay out the promised pensions. /1
@_keckers_
GarlandsMustache
2 years
@doughoyes can you do a show on the bond market? I'm dying to learn more, do you have any resources? My brain is having trouble comprehending how a bond market can crash and what the implications are. Mucho appreciato sir!
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
5 months
This is not an April Fools' Day joke: Huge payday lender (Cash Money) files bankruptcy (actually CCAA, but "bankruptcy" is better clickbait). Source documents: News report:
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 years
Tomorrow's podcast will be epic. First-time guest. (I won't disclose her name, but her initials are @nasmadotali ) My first question to her: "What is going on in the real estate market?" I suggest you subscribe now so you don't miss it.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
1 year
I believe it was @ronmortgageguy who told me that 5 year bond rates determine mortgage rates. The 5-year is now over 4%, the highest rate since 2007. And we all remember what happened in 2008. #PresentedWithoutElaborateComment
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
5 years
JUST RELEASED: Consumer insolvencies up 28.5% in September compared to the same month last year. Year to date up 15.2% in Ontario (9.3% Canada wide). Pace of growth accelerating. Debt bubble imploding.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
3 years
I don't announce my podcast guests in advance, but I'll give you a hint: This Saturday's guest's initials are: Ben Rabidoux.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
11 months
So answer me this: If you can’t come up with $40,000, what are the chances you can afford $1,800 per month for 3 years? Not great, I assume. That’s why I am already seeing defaults, and I expect a lot more in the new year. /3
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 years
Strange times. Most of my clients are feeling squeezed. Groceries going up faster than income. But I’ve had two clients this week who were able to land better jobs, so their situation has improved. I have no point; just an observation.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
11 months
We've hired some new team members over the last few months, so to meet the new people we had a "let's work in the office day" in Kitchener. It was the first time in over 3 years that the entire head office team was together. We brought in lunch. It was great.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
4 years
JUST RELEASED: #debt , HELOCs, and The New World of Mortgage Lending with @ronmortgageguy Audio links: Video: Here's a clip with Ron's take on HELOCs and down payments on rental properties
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
3 years
FAIR WARNING: If you are a creditor who has been notified, twice, that my client has filed a consumer proposal, and you keep calling them, even after promising to stop the calls, today will not be a good day for you.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
4 years
Yup. The BOC is lowering interest rates because they think we are heading into a recession. Your income may drop, so now is NOT the time to borrow more, even with lower rates. Take advantage of lower rates to pay DOWN #debt .
@HoyesMichalos
Hoyes Michalos
4 years
Bank of Canada cut the rate today. But just FYI, this will have zero impact on high cost borrowing. Fast financing loans are still going to charge 40% to 60% interest. Credit cards are still going to charge 18% minimum to carry a balance. #BoC #ratecut
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 months
CMHC is the (quasi) government, and it doesn’t move quickly. It may take them months or years to pursue the borrower, and then the borrower may have no option but to file a consumer proposal or bankruptcy. /6
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
4 years
Trying to help my 87 year old aunt deal with CRA. We called the help line. "All of our agents are busy". "Call back later". But they only work until 9-5, so when is later? If CRA was a business, they would have gone out of business long ago....
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 years
Big News! @ronmortgageguy announced on the Debt Free in 30 podcast that he is starting his own podcast. Here's the exact moment he reveals his plans for a Not Safe for Work (?) Mortgage podcast: (This should be good).
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
1 year
A big proposal from yesterday's budget that did not get much media attention: A crackdown on predatory lending: - lowering the Criminal Code rate of interest - lowering the rate on payday loans The details: /1
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
6 months
I predicted 30% growth in insolvencies in 2024. JUST RELEASED: As expected, in January, consumer insolvencies increased by 30.4% in Ontario and 23.5% in Canada. More details here:
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 years
JUST RELEASED: Ontario consumer insolvencies were up 29.1% in September compared to a year ago, the 5th straight month of strong double-digit growth. Could be a trend.... More details here:
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 years
Disturbing phone call. Woman, who had medical issues, incurred debt. Googled, and found an unlicensed debt consultant. They charged her $1,600 to refer her to a Licensed Trustee, who is also clearly evil. They filed a consumer proposal. /1
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
4 years
Just had another one. $17,000 in total debt, debtor didn't want to go bankrupt; wants to pay something, so offered $6,000 ($100 x 60 months). No assets. No surplus in a bankruptcy. Big Bank says: we want $15,000! ($250 per month)! Yup, Big Bank really trying to help.....
@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
4 years
Are creditors being more reasonable now? Some are, but the Biggest Bank said no to a consumer proposal where we offered 30 cents on the $, and in a bankruptcy they'll get a lot less than that. And they won't give us a counter offer. (Fortunately the other creditors said yes).
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 years
I was chatting on the phone today with @ronmortgageguy , and now I've changed my browser start-up page to the Canada 5-Year Government Bond Yield.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
26 days
There is nothing on TV tonight, so I suggest you join the 65,000 other people who have watched our documentary, Debtasized. It's good: Here's the trailer:
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 years
Saturday. 8:00 am. @ronmortgageguy returns to the podcast. He will share some numbers that will blow your mind. Like 40%. Subscribe so you don't miss it. Debt Free in 30.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
1 year
Did anyone else wake up this morning, grab a coffee, and start plotting yield curves? Or was it just me?
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 years
Done.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
5 years
My average client spends 31% of their income on personal and living expenses. Food costs are up 3.4% so far this year (compared to 1.9 in all of last year). /7
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
4 years
My two sons, both in their 20s, with their own apartments, came for a visit at Christmas. The younger one left last week. The older one returned home today. My wife and I will miss them. But I will no longer have to take an advance on my line of credit to fund our food bill.....
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
6 years
I've met with three people in debt in the last two days who all mentioned that they saw this story and realized they were paying a lot for essentially worthless insurance. Thanks to @squawkfox and @cbcErica for raising this issue; a lot of people are cancelling this insurance.
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@doughoyes
Doug Hoyes
2 years
Saturday. 8:00 am. @ronmortgageguy returns to the podcast. We both make some bold statements, like the one in the clip below. The rest of the show is even better. Full show here, Saturday, 8:00 am:
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