🌟
@Economictimes
Celebrates Women's Day with a spotlight on seven incredible PMS fund managers
Topping the list is trailblazing
@DevinaMehra
, a financial powerhouse with over 3 decades of expertise, remarkably delivered outstanding returns of 42% and 35% over the last 1 year.
@fasc1nate
This one actually made me cry... especially as I have a child in a wheelchair...of course, she is probably the most cheerful, happy, loving, determined and smartest person you can hope to meet...but sometimes you wish she had all that most of us take for granted
Many Indian celebrities are goodwill ambassadors of UNICEF.
Their site shows Amitabh Bachchan, Sachin Tendulkar, Priyanka Chopra, Madhuri Dixit etc
In what has been the deadliest killings of children in living memory, have any of them spoken out?
Contrast with Mohammed Ali who
76 years ago: This was India in 1947
- Life expectancy 32 years (most South East Asian countries were almost 20 yrs ahead)
- Literacy 18%
- GDP growth sub 0.5% per annum for over 50 years (Yup. The 'Hindu' rate of growth was an 8-fold increase over the growth in the first half
Mobile penetration in India was nearly 86% in 2018...Is ~ 81% now
Nearly 60% of India needs free food
Number of income tax payers is DOWN by 20 lacs from pre pandemic levels
Those tweeting about luxury car & high end home sales etc, 'people like us' aren't the whole economy!
This is the lens through which the privileged see the world
Corporate tax reduction = Reform
Capital gains tax cut = Reform
Near free land to industry = Reform
Near free IIT/IIM education = My birthright
Free/subsidized food to the poor = Fiscal profligacy
Free healthcare =
All the people who got heavily subsidized education in Universities, IITs and IIMs, esp those who went abroad & didn't even pay taxes in India to compensate...have their knickers in a twist because women who travel in buses are getting a subsidy!
Kis duniya mein ho bhaiyon
The original HDFC Bank report from
@firstglobalsec
Copy thanks to my co-author
@2vimal
for this one.
Thrilled to see it 😊😊😊
The Baby to Arnold Schwarzenegger transformation sure happened before our eyes, didn't it?
Tatas using CSR funds to build a museum of temples but have no funds to pay salaries at an institution that bears the Tata name 😥
Just two headlines from the past week.
Sad to see a premier institute struggling like this - we have too few anyway!
Post elections, as we see debates on reforms vs freebies, a reminder that this is the lens through which the privileged see the world
Corporate tax reduction = Reform
Capital gains tax cut = Reform
Near free land to industry = Reform
Near free IIT/IIM/ University education = My
Apparently Harshad Mehta watching 1993 budget(Whatsapp)
Personal Landmark as that's when Dr.Manmohan Singh opened the mkt for Foreign Institutional investors: the trigger for me to quit Citibank & start First Global as I reckoned there would be a market for professional research
Shocked to see
#fininfluencers
STILL talking of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's 'blunder' of selling CRISIL shares to buy a home- worth less than the shares now
Bhai,
Sab yahin choot gaya
Ghar to bhog liya na
Money is to be used
In case you missed the memo: It ain't going with you 🤦
Recently read Rama Bijapurkar's book 'Lilliput Land'
While there are many insights on consumer behaviour, structure of the market, opportunities etc, here is what I found surprising in the income data:
1. Income has gone up only for the top quintile i.e. the top 20% of India.
Merkel is a quantum scientist. A doctorate. Scientific thinking: deliberate probing of each bit of information & cautious consultation with experts remains integral to her daily decision-making
So, a scientific temper results in better outcomes? Who knew?
On Popular demand!
Putting my hard-won Life Lessons into a thread
#LifeLesson
#1
When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time.
- Maya Angelou
Often we're judgemental about people we don't know well & too willing to make excuses for those who are close to us
You're in trouble when instead of working on science, technology, maths,medicine etc, you spend your time trying to prove that your ancestors did/knew science, tech, medicine etc hundreds or thousands of years ago!
Behas Kam aur kaam zyada
That's what's required!
Who all agree?
Let me say this as politely as I possibly can
This type of recommendation of working 84 hours for a week for 'nation-building' is bunkum and makes absolutely no sense
1. Research shows that increasing the number of hours of work beyond a point (and certainly that point is far
I tweeted that an indicator that had historically forecast a US recession is now on
Q I get: Should I now steer clear of US markets?
In India the story is that the economy is booming & hence the mkts look great
But the economy & markets are different animals
A thread 🧵 (1/n)
This information is incorrect.
Hindustan Lever had its IPO in the mid-50s, Nestle in the 60s and so on
You have to thank Nehruji that
a) These MNCs were forced to manufacture in India(didn't happen in most Asian countries)
b) They had to list here which created tremendous
Superb read from excellent book by Parag Parekh ji on value investing
History teaches, biggest wealth creators like HuL, Siemens, Nestle etc are actually the gift of socialist leader George Fandavis through mandatory listing of MNC.
May be next consumers will come from 24 vote
For all who advocate the 'Buy & forget' investment mantra, all these were in Nifty 50 at some point: Satyam, Yes Bk, Idea, Rel Power, Rel Capital, Cairn, Zee, Unitech,JP, Suzlon, Indiabulls Hsg & many others that went nowhere
Examples of compounding suffer from Survivorship Bias
You may've seen this viral video
Now the khulasa: it's my brother(in red T-Shirt) &his Engg classmates(all 60+) dancing like noone is watching
Bhaiya, after retiring as a Tata co CEO, joined his next job the next day
Work hard.Have fun is his philosophy
Pref with old friends!
Saw a thread from an influencer giving gyan on why you should move out of parents' home & live independently
The catch?Enjoyed free rent + babysitting(plus 'compounded' the savings)
Moved out when HE didn't need it
Want to follow the West?Then move out at 18 & fend for yourself
Some try to 'insult' me on Twitter by calling me a liberal woke intellectual
Why would I want to be a bigoted, racist, casteist etc idiot? 🤦 (These are literally the dictionary opposites)
It's like someone once close to me said mockingly: What do you think you're? A feminist?
@T_Investor_
He took money from a whole lot of people - didn't even return it to some.
What you are praising is a carefully crafted PR story.
Heck, the man did not even tweet a routine condolence message for Amar Singh or Subroto Roy - people he called close family at one point!
For those making personal remarks:
I was already in the top tax payers in India way back in 2000-01, paid more than Bollywood Khans. Employed 250 people by my mid-30s
No rich parents or outside funding!
Speak for yourself and your achievements!
Silly remarks are easy to make🤦
Seen investing principles that're supposed to make investing simple & profitable?
One of the favourites:"Buy monopoly businesses. Buy the largest company in the sector - the strongest brand. You can't go wrong."
But is it really the truth?
A thread to explain
Read carefully
1/
Much as I admire Satya Nadella - IMO, the best current CEO of a major company, being the son of a senior IAS and an academic and going to one of the best schools in Hyderabad was a place of extreme privilege, NOT a 'challenged' life!
I consider myself privileged to be the
Mahabharat such much mein padi hoti to yeh bhi jaanti
* Pandavas lost all their kids in the war -the loss of adult children is the biggest loss in life
* After death they went to hell, not heaven. Kauravas went to heaven
That's the price of lying and setting false
Everyone wants to emulate RJ...or at least his results😊
One line that stood out from the book
"Not every year I make money. I make money in spurts, like 1989-92, 2003-07, 2009-11
In 1994-99 I would'nt have made any trading income"
- Rakesh Jhunjhunwala
If you...
Thread 🧵
1/
Deliberately or otherwise, educated Indians refuse to understand that all Indians pay tax!
The graph obviously, refers to only Income Tax.
When you know that 80 crores residents in the country need free food, do you expect them to pay Income tax?
Net out kids & elders from the
A tale of two covers around the same time!
When the whole world was 'throwing in the towel' on Amazon and discussing a likely bankruptcy, there was only one firm on Wall Street had a Buy on the stock.
Yup, that call sure feels good!
Reference the Uttrakhand 'live-in' bill, what if you're just sharing a flat?
During my Citibank days, I shared chummeries for 5 years for 2/3 guys at a time.
There were two bedroom chummeries as well, with a guy and a girl.
I've had several male friends (purely platonic ones)
No economy in the world has made the transition from a low to higher imcome without substantial women participation
Yet you see manels(men only panels) discussing how to make India a x trillion economy as if 50% of the population doesn't matter
Funny & pathetic at the same time
@safiranand
If you read what he is saying, the points are all valid.
Things look good for 'people like us' not for Indians overall.
My father always used to say that the people who point out where you can improve or even what you're doing wrong are your real well-wishers.
"It had become usual to give Napoleon the credit for every successful achievement & every stroke of good fortune. You would often hear one hen remark to another, "Under the guidance of our Leader, Comrade Napoleon, I have laid five eggs in six days"."
George Orwell's Animal Farm
Just as they say for US shootings that the day they accepted killing of children was acceptable, they passed the point of no return
For us it was that first rally in support of the rapist of a little girl in Kathua, it's been a slippery slope since
We saw the headline figures of 8.2% GDP growth for 2023-24, but what happened to its largest component, Private Consumption?
Growth was only 4% - that was the reality that was seen by Indian citizens.
Last time it was that low? 2002-3...just before the 'India Shining' campaign
Think Indian equity markets compound at 15-16% per annum?
That HAS been the SENSEX return over 40+ years.
But what you may not know is these vary hugely not just year to year but over long periods of time.
Returns each DECADE have been 21.6%, 14.2%, 17.8% and 8.8% pa
As a
Do you know that in the battle of Haldighati, the Mughal army was commanded by Raja Mansingh, a Hindu Rajput and Maharana Pratap's senapati was Hakim Khan Sur, a Muslim Pashtun - who was killed on the battlefield?
Don't get misled by WhatsApp University!
History is complex and
@ActusDei
@rohatgi_akshat
The point is not that the MFs applied for the IPO or what the size was, the point is what was the mandate of that scheme?
Leaving aside the valuation question, if a FMCG or consumption theme fund applied for it, it still made some sense - but how can a large cap, midcap and
@AbhilashaPurwar
@SayaniBh
This is the biggest fallacy propagated in this split of labour narrative!
Men do only the once in a while jobs.
In this case it is one trip for the man to the station, whereas his wife is cooking for the house guest everyday (multiple times a day), organising everything from
This is what you see when driving past on Marine Drive aka Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose Road.
In our city planning department (if we have one) I wonder whether they have even heard of aesthetics or the visual heritage of a city.
We seem to specialise in ugly changes 😥.
Marine
Celebrating my birthday with the most important people in my life, my mother and daughter ❤️❤️
Happy and grateful 🎉🎉🎈🎈
And once again thank you all for the warm and heartfelt wishes that I may not have been able to answer individually...but I carry them all in my heart🙏
I started off as a credit analyst before I became an equity analyst. Excellent training. As a lender you've to focus on the downside as you don't participate in the upside
Few fund managers look at the complete picture for stocks. Most investor letters have only rosy stories
Mummy reading the
#Marathi
classic Mritunjaya (in
#Hindi
translation). About 300 pages into the 680 pages book.
Lost to the world as she always is while reading 😊
Incidentally, the book is Mahabharata from Karna's perspective
Yup. I got it from my Mama!
🎉🎉📚📚
#BookTwitter
The books to understand human biases & thinking fallacies
The Art of Thinking Clearly
-Rolf Dobelli (easiest)
Thinking Fast and Slow &
Noise
- Daniel Kahneman et al
The Invisible Gorilla
- Christopher Chabris
The Halo Effect
- Phil Rosenzweig
Misbehaving
- Richard Thaler
As I've said before, what worries me most in the India story is that our so called 'demographic dividend' will completely pass us by as a high proportion of young working population are simply not getting jobs...and it's a limited period window
Data as quoted by
@kaushikcbasu
This is what happens when an Indian 'influencer' copies wholesale from a Western blog or article
Sure buying & cooking seasonal vegetables is more expensive than eating chips, burgers, pizzas- in which world?
Maybe that's why the Twitter algo showed me this under 'Funny Tweets'
Mother's Day Post 2
This time with me as the mother 😊 - 19 years ago when my daughter Precia was just a few months old
Much of the 19 years went in being her mother.
I did not attend a party or a wedding for over a decade, did not go out of the house (it was WFH for me) for
Since we want to go back to our traditions, a reminder that in Bharat the wife or partner's name preceded the male name.
Thus it is Sitaram, Radheshyam, GauriShankar etc
Lord Ram is Siyapati Ram, not the other way around
The Mrs. XYZ is a Western construct that we should
Chullu bhar paani mein doob marna chahiye - all those protesting.
Feeding their children poison!
Then the same people will protest about minorities having neighbourhoods of their own. Heads I win, tails you lose.
Hatred never ends well. Never had. Never will.
बोया पेड़ बबूल
“Nice people made the best Nazis. My mom grew up next to them. They got along, refused to make waves, looked the other way when things got ugly and focused on happier things than “politics.”
They were lovely people who turned their heads as their neighbors were dragged away.
I once asked the great Ram Jethmalani the question, "What makes for a good lawyer?"
His answer was: "Hard work. Hard work. And Hard Work...when I walk into a court room, I must know more than everyone there combined. After that it's upto the two xxxxs up there"😃
He was the
Data that I've highlighted multiple times in various articles and interviews over the last several months. Worth a recap:
1. The Smallcap index fell nearly 80% in 2008-9, it fell nearly two-thirds in 2018/19
When something falls 2/3rds, it can triple and you will make zero
Important statistic
Did you know?
The poor pay MORE than proportionate indirect taxes: the poorest 50% who hold 3% of the wealth paid 2/3rd of GST.
Why?
Because the poor need to spend/consume all of their income to survive, hence pay taxes on everything - unlike the better off
Those asking about Indian markets, my view
*Risk of a crash is lower than the risk of missing out an upmove
*Is it the bottom? Don't know but likely somewhere close
*Sentiment is a contra-indicator. Higher returns come after uncertainty & fear
Equity is ONLY for the long term
Finally finished 'Noise' by Daniel Kahneman's, Cass R. Sunstein and Olivier Sibony...Yoo Hoo
It goes right beside his earlier 'Thinking Fast and Slow' as being among the best books I have ever read.
Each chapter is almost as good as a normal non fiction book...
1/
Domino's major innovation hasn't been in better crust or toppings, it's been in tech: zero click ordering, delivery even to a park bench or carside, orders via smart watch, Twitter, Slack, Smart TV, Alexa, FB Messenger etc
20 bagger in 10 yrs
Any company can be a
#tech
company!
Last night at the
@FortuneIndia
Most Powerful Women in Business awards
Pleasure to have your work recognised (in the 30th year of First Global) + meet some other accomplished women
@firstglobalsec
@rajeevdubey
@smritiirani
And always the blessings of parents to get you there 🙏
How visionaries think versus most of us incremental managers!
Nehru ji decided to invest in a number of cutting-edge areas from atomic energy to space research to cellular sciences, let alone industries like pharmaceuticals. This, literally at a time when we did not have enough
This information is incorrect.
Hindustan Lever had its IPO in the mid-50s, Nestle in the 60s and so on
You have to thank Nehruji that
a) These MNCs were forced to manufacture in India(didn't happen in most Asian countries)
b) They had to list here which created tremendous
Social media is full of how proud we are of Vinesh Phogat who broke a 5-year unbroken run of the World No. 1 and fights in the Olympics Semi-finals tonight.
Lest we forget! This is another picture of Champion Vinesh...rather two
The women who bring honor to the country are
Behnon aur Bhaiyon,
Stand by for two big announcements in the next 24 hours!
1. Revelation of the name of my book on investments being published by Penguin Randomhouse (expected by January 2025)
2. Start of my regular column for Mint newspaper
Happy reading!
@livemint
@yeazlas
What is wrong with this? Mind your own business.
I remember when I was in school 40 + years ago a teacher singing and dancing to "Dhoondo dhoondo re saajna more kaan ka Bala" on Teachers' Day in our classroom. Not very different.
Made it to the
@FortuneIndia
Most Powerful Women list
Like most women brought up with modesty as a virtue, little hard to blow your own trumpet
Overcoming that as it's important for girls to know that you can go own the world!
My Mom's blessings from here & Papa's from above
My annual
#RakshaBandhan
reminder!
Not your spouse, not your parents, not your children - in the normal course, your relationship with your sibling(s) is the longest of your life - literally from birth to death.
Don't let trivialities increase the distance.
Enjoy. Celebrate
The reality of India is that rental yields are only 2-3% when FD rates have been 6 to 8% and this yield is without factoring in things like property tax, society charges, maintenance or gap between tenants/ hassles with them
Any wonder so many properties are just kept locked up
Owning Real estate for the purpose of Rental yield is more of pain & No pleasure at all
Investors purchased Flats/Apartments post 2010, What is your Rental yields? less than Fixed deposit returns with no appreciation or less
How many tenants changed?
What's your
Attn: All wome
Most are not aware of these laws
Do you know when a married/ widowed Hindu women dies without a will, and even if there are no living husband or kids, her parents and siblings get NOTHING
Her assets go ENTIRELY to her husband's family!
@apri_sharma
's piece in
To the party game question 'What is your one wish for the next janam?', my answer has always been the same 'To have the same mother'.
It has been a huge competitive advantage 😉
Here's my beautiful, graceful mother. The first picture is Mummy with her MA (Economics) degree when
Last quarter, many pointed out that our 23.9% GDP contraction was so much better than 31.4% decline in the US. Explanations on how the 2 weren't comparable fell on deaf ears
Same voices are (surprisingly) silent when this quarter we have a 7% decline vs a 33.1% growth in the US!
We all know by now Prof
@AswathDamodaran
'fair value' calculation of Rs.948 per share for Adani Enterprises
Here's what happens if you vary the assumptions
If Cost of capital increases from 10% to 12% (logical as Risk free yields are 7.3% in India), the value drops to 645(1/6)
There was a time a couple of decades ago that I would take every opportunity to go to Cochin (now Kochi) and stay at the Taj Malabar, just to watch a variety of boats go past my window
Grateful to the Universe that this is a feature of my regular home now 🙏😊
If you can get this one concept into your head, your life itself will be transformed - don't waste more time and mental energy over sunk costs, even if it is a lot of money or decades of your life.
Ask yourself if fretting over it or tinkering with an idea that clearly isn't
Also the power of not highlighting
#SurvivorshipBias
!
Easy to find examples in hindsight
How many companies in similar situation would've gone bust/irrelevant isn't highlighted...
where the hard-earned 7.5 Lacs disappeared
Don't get misled by qissas...which is what these are
The questions I get asked on SVB are:
What really happened?
How did US regulators react & why?
Does it have any implications for the Fed rate & markets?
I'll try to explain it in very simple language with no tables, graphs & as little jargon as possible.
Settle down to read
1/
Interestingly, Russia has been positioning itself for international sanctions for a while
- Zero holdings in US Treasuries
- moved money from US$ & Euros to gold & Renminbi
- moved away holdings in Western jurisdictions which can be frozen
Have fun where and when you can!
A lesson there...not the management kind though 😉😃
जीवन का असली आनंद 😆😆😆 बेगानी शादी में दीवाने..... बच्चे 💃🥁😎🤣
(WhatsApp forward...but, of course)
I remember how the country celebrated when she became the first Indian woman wrestler to get an Olympic medal...and this is how it ends😢
Will have far-reaching consequences
- Even fewer women in the workforce as girls (and/or their parents) bend over backwards to avoid such
Behnon aur Bhaiyon,
My
#book
is finally with the publisher, Penguin Randomhouse
I am sure that there will still be work with the editors but for the last few days, it has been "Exam ke baad wali" feeling when suddenly the day has many more hours.
Targeted to be out around
"GDP growth rate in third quarter of FY23 has moderated to 4.4% from 6.3% of second quarter of FY 23 while Q3FY22 growth was 5.4%"
Manufacturing contracts by 1.1%
Barely positive even on a 9 mth basis
As I'd reminded last week, the 'luxury' sector isn't the whole economy!
"A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step"
For me the first step was exactly 30 years ago...I resigned from Citibank on August 23, 1993.
It's been a long journey since; from getting the coveted BSE card to making it as the only investment professional in the
होली है!! 🎊🎊🎊🥳🥳
Celebrating with colors and home-made gujiya after many years!
My favourite childhood festival. Of course, at the time gulal was forbidden. My safety conscious mother was aware even in the 70s that gulal had lead.
Happy Holi to all
May you all be blessed
As promised, the big reveal 🥁🥁
The title of my forthcoming book is 'Myths and Mantras: The Ultimate Investment Guide '
My new fortnightly column with the Mint newspaper, also called 'Myths and Mantras'
The first one is an Independence Day special, looking back at our
A lesson from a Juhi Chawla interview that I've never forgotten
"During my heydays, I was
#2
& Madhuri was
#1
. The whole time I tried to reach
#1
Never enjoyed the fact that out of crores of people I was right up there & then it was all over"
Strive.But enjoy where you're too
This is in the 'kuch bhi' category
I studied in a convent school where every year we wrote essays on Holi, Diwali Raksha Bandhan etc
That's how I know होली फागुन मास की पूर्णिमा को और दिवाली कार्तिक मास की अमावस्या को मनाई जाती है।
We also recited this pledge everyday:
"India
Convinced that the small cap stock you have bought is headed towards becoming a large cap?
What about all the stories of having identified the next 50/ the next 100 stocks that are set for the big league?
Here's the data!
Even after a massive small and mid caps bull run, more
No matter what your age, when you behave well: properly, courteously, with empathy, compassion and patience, people will call you 'well-brought up' and I think there is a great element of truth in it.
Similarly, uncouth, abusive, unethical behavior (unfortunately, often on
While I have been turning down all media requests for a post election analysis, all the talk of whether alliances will hold post elections reminded me of something I wrote over 26 years back - at the time before a Lok Sabha Election result, not after.
The basic premise is that
My piece in today's
@EconomicTimes
to summarize what I expect in 2024.
How to look at the markets in a short 300 words capsule.
And no, there are no index forecasts 🙃
2023 is when I learnt from Daniel Kahnemann's 'Noise' what is 'objective ignorance'.
But what I am proud of
We have all seen those statements
If you/yr parents had invested $1000 or Rs.10,000 in, take your pick: Apple, Microsoft,Tesla, HDFC Bank,Hindustan Lever 20,30 yrs back this is how much you'd be worth
Why part truth is more dangerous than lies. Read my piece in
@moneycontrolcom