Dean Christians, CMT @deaCMTn Twitter profile

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Dean Christians, CMT

@deaCMTn

2 months

Commodities are starting to break down again. In every bull market since 1960, at least 85% of commodities have exceeded their 200-day averages. The absence of this scenario raises a caution flag regarding the uptrend that began in February 2024.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@deaCMTn

1 month

Food for thought:

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Dean Christians, CMT

@deaCMTn

2 months

FYI, The following outlook table contains my NYSE Advance-Decline Divergence Model, which I shared at the annual NAAIM meeting. It contains specific rules, removing subjectivity. It's one of ten components in my TCTM Composite Risk Warning Model.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@deaCMTn

1 month

With the last update to June data, an economic and consumer sentiment composite dropped 4% m/m and remains in recession territory. Furthermore, this is the first time in history following a bear market that it has failed to trigger an acceleration signal.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@deaCMTn

1 month

Today, advancing issues on the NYSE outpaced declining issues by a ratio of 5 to 1, with the S&P 500 down -0.88%. That's never happened. Adjusting parameters to 2/1 and -0.75%, I get six precedents. 12/5/1929 8/18/1930 1/11/1932 8/20/1934 11/8/1934 4/19/2024

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Dean Christians, CMT

@deaCMTn

2 months

One more item for the expanding list of things you don't usually see in a healthy bull market. For only the 2nd time since 1928, the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 registering a 63-day low exceeded 15%, with the index one day removed from a multi-year high.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@deaCMTn

1 month

There's no need to go out to eat when our AI robot will cook any meal we want at home:) LOL

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Dean Christians, CMT

@deaCMTn

1 month

Josh Brown was on CNBC today and mentioned the significant 1-day rate of change spread between homebuilders and semiconductors. The following chart offers a historical perspective on times when the spread surpassed 9%, similar to the current intraday change. . @Downtown

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Dean Christians, CMT

@deaCMTn

2 months

The % of S&P 500 stocks outperforming the S&P 500 index over a rolling 21-day period fell to 18%, the second-lowest point in history. In 1955, when this indicator recorded the lowest reading ever, General Motors accounted for 10% of the weighting in the S&P 500. #Concentration

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Dean Christians, CMT

@deaCMTn

14 days

I guess when you've underperformed for as long as emerging markets have, there's no pressing need to hedge:) The rest of the volatility complex is bid.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@deaCMTn

17 days

Rob Hannah at Quantifiable Edges is the authority on Fed Studies, so he may have already published this one. I thought it was interesting.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@deaCMTn

3 months

Uranium. Rinse and repeat.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@deaCMTn

3 months

Despite YTD pullbacks, every Bond ETF remains on a buy signal versus cash. Stocks struggle when a high proportion of models move to cash.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@deaCMTn

3 months

Buying a base breakout in copper futures is not a favorable strategy.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@deaCMTn

3 months

For the second time in a year, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks outperforming the S&P 500 index fell to 25%. Recent precedents have occurred within the context of a dominant sector theme. Recognizing how this influences market analysis is critical.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@deaCMTn

3 months

As of Monday, Cocoa had risen 125% above its 200-day moving average, ranking it as the seventh most profound deviation above the long-term average for any commodity since 1959.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@deaCMTn

3 months

For the first time in history, more than five NYSE issues declined for every one that advanced in 2 out of 4 sessions, with the S&P 500 less than 1.5% below a multi-year high

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Dean Christians, CMT

@deaCMTn

2 months

The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 accounted for 70% of the total options volume on Tuesday. Equally impressive was the daily range and close in Apple. Neither MSFT nor CSCO ever exhibited that type of price action in the Dotcom era when they were the largest stocks by mkt. cap

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Dean Christians, CMT

@deaCMTn

3 months

"The inside of the stock market is the best economist I know" - Stan Druckenmiller

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Dean Christians, CMT

@deaCMTn

2 months

The Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) is poised to close today at a new all-time relative low against the S&P 500. Maybe Ian Bremmer was onto something in his book "Us vs. Them," which discusses the impact of automation on EM. Does AI create even more problems?

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Dean Christians, CMT

@deaCMTn

3 months

Following a prolonged period of falling commodity prices, the S&P GSCI Equal-Weighted Commodity Index triggered a Deviation from the trend buy signal last week.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@deaCMTn

3 months

Utilities and Consumer Staples maintain the highest breadth composite scores as of Monday. This is an intriguing scenario, given the persistent struggles of these sectors during the Fed's tightening cycle.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@deaCMTn

3 months

While copper broke out to a 9-month high, the CRB Raw Industrials Index, a broad basket of commodities, shows no sign of a reflation trade.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@deaCMTn

3 months

Financials haven't done this in more than 50 years! Remember, this group (the credit mechanism) is excellent at providing an early warning before economic contractions and bear markets. Food for thought: If Armageddon was imminent, would they be acting in a similar manner?

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Dean Christians, CMT

@deaCMTn

2 months

On Wednesday, Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla accounted for 63% of the S&P 500's total option volume.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@deaCMTn

3 months

The absolute and relative trend scores are calculated based on a composite of ten trend-following indicators varying in duration from medium to long term. For now, value-oriented sectors are the dominant factor.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@deaCMTn

3 months

For only the 21st time since 1973, the S&P 500 Financials sector registered a gain of over 1%, whereas the S&P 500 Technology sector experienced a decline exceeding -3%.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@deaCMTn

3 months

Employing a 98% correlation threshold to analyze Gold's two-month surge relative to history, our correlation pattern matching tool found the following analogs. Similar price action occurred in the last secular uptrend. Will history repeat?

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Dean Christians, CMT

@deaCMTn

3 months

Uh oh, it looks like we're back to one of those types of markets. LOL

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