Market Technician. Active Trader. Passionate about Investor Education. Part-time ๐ coach. Father to FOUR boys. Co-founder of
@MarketScholars
๐จโ๐ป๐๏ธ๐๐ฐ๐จโ๐
For people who expect a "bear market low" around 3200 on $SPX, they don't really know what a bear market really is. The last 3 bear markets, $SPX dropped to 2 SDs BELOW its 20-yr linear regression trendline (last 3 charts). We're currently easily ABOVE the trendline (1st chart)
The Fed added more $$ to its balance sheet last week than it did the week of Oct 1, 2008 - in aftermath of Lehman's collapse. This new stealth 5th round of QE erased the past 4 combined months of QT. This is VERY bullish for equities (whether you agree with it or not) $SPX $NDX
For those who think the the economy can't function in a world with 7% mortgage rates...From 1982 to 2000, the mortgage rate was rarely ever BELOW 7% and GDP grew 5% or MORE on an annual basis (for 18 years!) and $SPX rallied 1,350% over the course of 18 years!!!
This 23.67% move on $SPX is the highest without a 2% decline (on a closing basis) in the past 20 years. There are 229 green boxes on the 20-year ZigZag chart and this is the biggest one of all of them.
For context:
The biggest red box during the 2008 bear market was -22.8% in
@CodifyBaseball
He called it wrong on purpose. He wanted to call Bryce out and wanted to throw him out too. Angel knows there won't be any repercussions for him.
Are you ready for an 8-day decline in $QQQ? Going back to the prior instances of 8-day returns of 8% or more, there generally followed a eventual 8-day decline of 5-10%.
$QQQ is riding an 8-day winning streak with its 8-day RoC > 8%. This is the 5th 8-day move of 8% or more since the late 2021 peak - neither of the prior 4 had 8-day winning streaks. The last 8-day winning streak starting on 10/25/2021 only gained 5.14% over the 8 days. This has
Today, we're THIS CLOSE to a signal that we haven't seen on $SPX in nearly 53 YEARS: an RSI reading at 80 or higher on the same day as a CCI reading at 200 or higher. The last time was Dec 29-30, 1970.
Today is my 23rd anniversary. Best decision of my life. We got married when I was 23 years old. So, from now on Iโve been married longer than I was single. My wife is my partner in everything. I love traveling with her and chasing our boys around together. ๐ฅฐ
It's not common for the McClelllan Oscillator to drop below -100 much less do it two times in a row (orange arrows). The prior times came at the bottom of significant $SPX declines. We haven't dropped 5% from the ATH yet (on a closing basis)
This is the first time the McClellan Oscillator dropped below -70 for 6 consecutive sessions since COVID when that decline started with a 6-day streak then had a 10-day streak after that (16 out of 17 days total). 8 of those 16 days had 3% drops or more with 10 at 1% or more. The
5% or more rallies over 5 sessions for $SPX is typical of moves that occur DURING corrections. In fact, the McClellan Oscillator is trading right near +100. This is rare when it wasn't even close to -100 to begin with. We've seen this before - DURING the 2022 correction. The
Here's another indicator of bear markets vs corrections on $SPX. Corrections give you ONE 10% or more decline (on a weekly closing basis) and then bounces to new highs [1st image]. Bear markets bounce off lows with 10% gains but FAIL to get to new highs [2nd image]. 5 instances
Merry Christmas ๐๐โ๏ธ๐๐ปโค๏ธโ๏ธโ๏ธfrom the Settle family (minus one whoโs away from us in Africa for another 18 months ๐ฅฒ) and Happy Holidays.
We had 4th-biggest annual decline in $SPX since it became 500-stock index in '57. The other 3? '74, '02 & '08. $SPX finished BELOW 200-wk SMA by 30.75% in 2008, 28.8% in 2002 and 31.06% in 1974. This year? $SPX closed ABOVE 200-wk SMA by 4.67%. Still think we're in bear market?
@NBAonTNT
Calling it a failure for Milwaukee or Giannis takes away from Jimmy Butler achievement in this series and Miami's and Spoelstra's accomplishment. Same thing when GSW beat Dirk. It was one hell of a series by Butler. Celebrate that instead of trying to bring Giannis down
$SKEW jumped sharply higher up above 130 the past two days - the highest level since BEFORE the mid-August fakeout. Every time $SKEW has peaked with extreme upward momentum, $SPX generally peaks with it and STARTS a bearish intermediate move lower
There has only been two times EVER that $QQQ has closed above 2.2 in a ratio chart with $IWM - August 31, 2000 and September 1, 2000. We just had a 3-day move of >4% on the ratio as the correlation of the ratio with $SPX is just now turning positive ๐
$SPX eclipsed that '95 peak of 151 trading sessions (+26.33%) at its current +27.3% 100-day return WITHOUT a 2% decline, which is a new record for the S&P 500. That 149-session run in 2006 (only +18.24%) also came AFTER a Fed rate hike cycle. That 110-day run in 2017 only
$VIX is compressing in a BIG way. The last time its normalized ATR was this low without a spike driving it there was mid-2014 when $VIX was in low teens. Also, $VVIX is back below 80 with $VIX still >25. I think we're setting up for a jump in volatility off a MUCH higher low
The Money Flow Index for $SPX hit the 90th percentile - the last two times we hit these levels preceded the COVID correction and the 2022 correction. This time also includes a LOWER high on Money Flow even though $SPX is MUCH higher than its mid-October highs
Here are the capitulation moves on $VIX during the past 5 corrections on a monthly chart using options expiration cycles (We're ending one tomorrow). See how they compare to the current one? Still think we're seeing a capitulation move right now??
$SPX is now up >18% since its last 5% decline. This is its longest run since the 38% move after the vaccine was announced in Nov 2020 and 2 other moves of 31% and 19% in 2020
Think about that: $SPX had 3 consecutives moves of 31%, then 19%, then 38% without a 5% decline after
The McClellan Summation Index dropped below zero today and the Oscillator itself still hasn't broken through to trending levels. This is not normal for breadth to be so poor with $SPX not even in a bearish intermediate decline (2nd chart)
Remember folks, some really smart people are saying that little dip in the top far right corner of this chart is a "bear market" ๐คฆโโ๏ธ๐คทโโ๏ธ $SPX
This month was the 3rd time in 5 years the 63-day correlation b/w $QQQ and $QQEW dropped below +70% - each time preceded a correction. Friday, $QQEW broke above its 2/2 peak but NOT its 8/15/22 high. $QQQ (purple) BLEW its 2/2 peak away and has easily breached its 8/15/22 high.
Here's your doom-and-gloom chart for the night on $SPX. Q2 marks the 2nd straight 3% or more quarterly decline on $SPY. This has marked the BEGINNING of the past 5 real bear markets
Itโs official. Our second son won the
@nationalmerit
scholarship. ๐๐๐ป๐๐ปWinners at less than 0.5% of the 50K hs seniors in Utah. Weโre very proud of him and excited for what heโll accomplish at
@BYU
after his 2-yr mission to Ghana.
I've heard the term pullback thrown around a LOT today. A 0.59% retracement of an 18.41% $SPX rally is just a down day - NOT a pullback (orange arrow). Pullbacks don't START until you've broken the 23% retracement levels (blue arrow). Until then, any down days are just noise.
Here's another chart for the weekend that goes along with Ben's: Only 4 times in past 3 years has $VIX had a -40% 2-week correlation with $VVIX or worse. The blue boxes highlight what $VIX did after those low points
@JayBilas
Don't you have a law degree? I thought you would know how investigations and evidence works - as well as eyewitnesses. BYU interviewed the Duke players and staff that were there on the court and in the stands.
@ChrisGordy
It was totally a shot at the Rangers who celebrated making the playoffs the day before and were criticized by Astrosโ people for doing it
How bearish is individual retail investor sentiment right now? Getting below -35 is rare. The 40-week average for the series has NEVER been as low as it is right now $SPX
@AAIISentiment
"Danger ahead: The U.S. economy has yet to face its biggest recession challenge" -- In Mar 2000, the economy added what was a 30-mo high of 472K jobs as the yield curve inverted by nearly 50bps. Then this ๐ happened. What we're seeing is NOT unprecedented
The last 3 times the McClellan Oscillator was this bearish, $SPX found at least a short-term low. The first instance however was only short-term as eventually the Summation Index dropped below -1000. That ended the washout phase of last year's correction