A couple of points on the St. Paul’s by-election. First, turnout was high for a by-election - 44%. This was a workday Monday in a riding that is a Toronto traffic nightmare. This shows a strong desire among voters to send a signal for change. 1/n
In the next day or so we will be releasing with
@globalnews
a new survey on Canadians and Canada Day. Let’s just say these are the saddest numbers I’ve seen on this topic in 30 years. Frankly, I’m worried about us.
The saddest part for me in the dismal findings in our Canada Day poll for
@globalnews
is the negative views of younger Canadians. If the next generation of leaders, etc don’t believe Canada is worth celebrating, what kind of future will we have?
Yes, young people in Canada more likely to be voting for Conservatives than older people. But not because they have embraced right wing policies, values, etc. They are voting for CHANGE. What CPC got right and NDP gave up.
A conundrum for the NDP - the polls are bad for them too. Strange. Usually when LPC goes down NDP goes up. Not this time. Seems to be rejection of the coalition in total, not just LPC.
Good example of political maxim - if you’re explaining, you’re losing. If it requires 3+ minute video to explain a problem only experts think exists, unlikely to move hearts and minds. Especially when parade of cottage owners, seniors, small business owners, etc beg to differ.
Another point on the St. Paul’s by-election. Turnout was 44%. Average turnout for the last 10 federal by-elections was 28%. In other words, the result wasn’t a freaky artifact of low turnout as sometimes happens.
Curious strategy from Libs to make the SNC strategy about motives. Cdns 2:1 believe JWR over PM. 75% agree there was inappropriate political interference. 62% say PM has lost moral authority to govern. 84% want RCMP investigation, 85% a public inquiry. 1
A few thoughts on state of Canadian federal politics. First, the polls. The CPC has had a solid minimum 15pt lead since last summer. Any shifts are a product of the polls themselves (timing, methodology, sample noise) rather than real changes in public opinion. 1/n
Short string on current state of Canadian Federal politics. We are clearly in a change environment. Canadians worn out with and by this government. Today’s cabinet shuffle what insiders see as change. Voters won’t. Barely know current cabinet won’t know this one either. 1/n
Few extras on our poll for
@globalnews
on federal politics and reaction to the budget. CPC leads in every region except Quebec where BQ leads. But CPC tied now with LPC in Quebec. CPC leads by 11 in Ontario. If an election held tomorrow this is very strong CPC majority. 1/n
Until I saw our polling for
@globalnews
on politics and budget, would have bet $1 NDP would support budget. Not so sure now. Why wait for LPC to make all decisions about election timing? In change election a chance NDP could pass LPC and become official opposition.
Second point, St. Paul’s won by NDP in last two provincial elections. Last night NDP came poor third. Suggests progressives voted more for change than for values, or stayed home. NDP has lost ability to represent change in riding where they are logical, proven alternative for
What we are seeing in our Ipsos polling. Inflation coming up like a bullet as a concern for Canadians. It’s personal and intense. COVID, climate, other issues dropping. Rearranging of public priorities has potential to sideswipe best laid plans of governments and businesses.
This issue is now an inferno burning out of control. Just like the India trip debacle, it is the interest of the foreign press that has put it over the top. Fair or unfair, the PM is in a tough spot and there’s no obvious or easy out.
Why is there disconnect between how Cdns feel about inflation and actual level of inflation? Because it's not about inflation (the number) - it's about perceived cost of living. If life feels more expensive, that feeling is now called inflation.
The NDP and LPC are going down together. The progressive coalition in Canada tends to be larger than the conservative coalition. NDP should be benefitting from LPC’s troubles because progressives need a champion. This dynamic has broken down because it’s no longer progressives vs
What’s happening at Canada’s border is dangerous for our future. Tolerance on immigration contingent on the belief that the rule of law being followed. If that crumbles, we’ll jeopardize the good will that makes Canada’s approach to immigration possible. 1/2
Rough start? Not with voters. Our polling shows the Ford Government’s approval at 50%. This compares favourably to the federal government and is higher than most other provincial governments. It’s also 13% higher than for the Wynne government.
Want to find a Liberal voter? Look for a lawyer who lives in downtown Toronto. Want to find a Conservative voter, go west or small town/rural Canada. Want to find swing voter, look for private sector middle class worker in suburbs who commutes.
Lesson for CPC in Lib-NDP deal - no minority scenario works. They did this when didn’t have to. It will happen again if CPC doesn’t win majority in next election. Would have happened to Scheer and O’Toole too. Abandon wedges, open tent or get used to opposition status forever.
On other small but important finding in our
@globalnews
poll on federal politics and the budget. Time for a change is the highest we have seen it at the federal level - 75%.
Here’s the thing about election reform. Elites and activists get excited about it. Voters don’t care much. Why? Their issue isn’t with how we elect politicians, it’s with what they do once they are elected. Changing how elections work doesn’t fix that.
For those who say voters aren’t paying attention to election campaign until after Labor Day, explain movement in the polls? Another pundit trope to challenge - why and when an election is called is quickly forgotten. Not this time.
Voter opinion has detached from headlines, policy announcments, economic news, etc. Voters have made up their minds and are waiting for election day to express their desire for change. Yes, this can change. But nothing coming out of Ottawa is likely to do it. 2/n
Media. Streeters in downtown Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa don’t equal “Canadians.” Drive an hour out of the city and you will hear something different. Going west wouldn’t hurt either.
Biggest change we have seen is on who would make best PM. PP has opened a big lead on this now. PP 48%, JT 23%, JS 22%. When I said on weekend PP not attracting support, that’s changing now. 48% on best PM means voters are now starting to see him as a potential PM. 5/5
For those wondering about what Cdns think about blockades, both opposition to the blockades and support for police intervention up sharply over last week. 60%+ for both. Focus for Cdns has moved from indigenous reconciliation to public order.
@globalnews
Fertility rate in Canada down to 1.5. One of the big reasons for this is collapse in teenage pregnancies. Abortions way down for all women absolutely and in proportion to population. Ironic abortion has re-emerged as political issue when fewer women at all ages seeking them.
Biggest problem with blackface issue is it has completely derailed LPC election strategy. Entire effort was demonizing Tories, marginalizing NDP. Difficult to demonize now, and door wide open for Singh and NDP to walk through. 1/n
Here’s where we are on SNC and public opinion. 2/3rds watching closely - that’s the electorate. 2:1 believe JWR over PM. Strong majorities believe something went down and support strong action. 1
Subtle but important point. JT and the LPC aren’t losing to PP and the CPC. PP and the CPC aren’t popular. But they are singularly positioned as change. And that’s what Canadians say they most want.
The best word to describe Canadian voter opinion right now is brittle. It is a combination of anxiety, uncertainty and frustration. It has the potential to shatter. After many months of stability things are beginning to stir.
All of the major pollsters are now out with post-budget numbers. Outside of an election it’s not often there is this degree of convergence. CPC leads by 20pts. Budget only served to consolidate existing impressions.
Last time Conservatives treated leadership like a casting call they ended up with Kim Campbell. Better to find someone who is skilled, is up for the challenge, and has their own coherent conservative vision for the future.
Maybe I’m old fashioned but I always saw pollsters in the media as being like umpires. We call the balls and strikes but keep personal opinions about teams and players to ourselves. Otherwise, declare your partisanship and be judged accordingly.
This is the most consequential news about the campaign over the last couple of days. ANALYSIS: Jagmeet Singh wouldn’t back Scheer but he could back O’Toole - National |
Maybe I’m old fashioned. Pollsters in public square should behave like umpires or referees. Call the game without bias or favour. Taking shots at the players not on. If personal views won’t allow you to be objective join a team and help them win. Sure they’d be glad to have you.
CPC now most popular choice for younger voters, with the NDP and LPC tied far behind. CPC also leads among both men and women (by a lot), among homeowners and those with kids at home. There isn’t a demographic group we track where the LPC leads the CPC. 4/n
Most interesting number in fed politics polling we released with
@globalnews
today. 2/3 of Canadians want PMJT to resign and not run in next election. Includes a THIRD of those who say they would vote LPC. Keep in mind only 24% say they would vote LPC.
Here’s the thing on vaccines. No comms plan will fix falling behind public expectations because facts are clear for everybody to see. Talking about future supply without being clear about when we will roll up our sleeves is answering the wrong question.
Much ink will be spilled over next several months about how this or that represents fresh start, turn around, new direction, new trend, etc. Highly doubtful. As we get into campaign and there’s more focus on choosing next government there could be movement. But even that will
Always enjoy reading advice to conservatives about how to behave, campaign and think from people who would NEVER vote for them. The conservatives they want are Red Tories who were fun at cocktail parties and reasonable on TV but we’re content to lose. 1/n
When we poll Cdns on the economy, affordability a top source of anxiety. Taxes part of this. Average Canadian household spent more on taxes than living costs in 2018, report finds
Here’s where we are now in the election. Follow along with this string for some thoughts. An election that was supposed to be an opportunity for Trudeau and the LPC to score a quick majority has turned now into a fight for survival. 1/n
The CPC isn’t where it is in today’s polls because voters see their leader or policies as better than the incumbent. Voters know little about either. It’s because the CPC has smartly defined itself as change. They have been aided in this by the NDP’s agreement with the LPC. 1/n
Look at the numbers. Current Lib approach created biggest non-election drop in incumbent party support since Sheila Fraser revealed Adscam. Might want to think about how this ends and get there fast. Right now, strategy is pouring daily buckets of gasoline on a wildfire. 3/3.
We have run 10 seat models using different turnout scenarios for today. 5 have the LPC winning, 5 have the CPC winning. This is a good reminder that turnout and vote efficiency is what determines election outcomes. Not the overall party vote numbers.
#elxn43
1/n
Since current PM’s father, Canadian politics driven by leaders and their image. It ain’t the team, party, policies - it’s the leader. When leader is popular, they raise all boats. When they aren’t, they all sink. Shuffling the boats doesn’t change the tide. 2/n
@profamirattaran
Single online poll with large margin of error in each educational category. More accurate to say Conservatives and Liberals MAY have slightly different education preferences. One group NOT more educated than the other.
Hearing a lot about Red Tories. These aren’t and never were economic conservatives, social progressives. They were Laurentian Consensus adherents wearing blue. Little meaningful difference from same who wore red. Historical not contemporary.
Happy Simcoe Day! 1st Lieutenant Governor of Ontario, CO of
@QYRangers
, built Fort York and 1st infrastructure of Toronto. Passed 1st antislavery law in British Empire (1793).
Minority Govts fall for 1 of 2 reasons. By design - Govt is defeated on an issue it wants to run on. By accident - collision of competing tactics, heat of the moment decision-making. This parliament has accident written all over it.
I block. A lot. If you’re snarky or impolite, you’re done. I used to engage with the bile and it wasn’t a good look. If you can’t be civil you will be evicted from my Twitter world. Immediately.
What happened in Ontario? Follow along. It wasn’t about Ford. This was an electorally decisive group of Ontarians deciding they wanted fundamental change of govt direction. What happens when govt moves too far away from electorally viable public consensus.
NDP on the rise in Ontario. Up 6pts in a week to trail the PCs by only 5pts now. Why? NDP now seen by progressives as best option to stop Ford. Can they catch the PCs? Possibly. Libs may not have hit bottom yet. Lib defectors going mostly NDP.
Polling on political party support in Canada today is meaningless. Partisanship has been suspended as voters get behind government COVID recovery plans they hope will work. Won’t last. Will return to politics at some point. That’s when vote choice polls will be relevant again.
Polling is clear on impact of JWR imbroglio on both Gov’t performance and PM’s approval. It’s hitting both directly. There’s no spin solution. Attempts to minimize the issue or change the subject have and will backfire. The corrosive effect is real.
It’s bizarre how conservatives have allowed their opponents to define their beliefs. Views on abortion and same sex marriage NOT core, defining features of who does or would vote conservative. Marginal issues that Canadians have decided already. 1/n
For the public, there’s a few fundamental responsibilities every federal government has. One of them is maintaining the security of our national borders. If this is in question, it is corrosive for public confidence. 2/2
Conversations about capital gains taxes have two elements, political and economic. On economics, I leave it to the economists. On politics, when voters hear increase in CGT many hear “increase in taxes.” Similar to carbon tax, regardless of motive or purpose, it’s just another
What stands out in polling is enthusiasm gap between LPC and CPC. CPC vote solid - animated, certain, committed. LPC vote less so on all points. In ‘15 LPC had emotion working for them - hope. This time CPC has it - anger. They want Trudeau out. 2/n
Most interesting conversations in Ottawa right now should be in NDP caucus. Have opportunity to use leverage they have to political (rather than policy) advantage. Getter a bigger role in Govt (even cabinet seats), or trigger showdown for progressive vote in election they
Analysis of by-election results as signals about events in the distant future is like treating a horoscope as science. But yesterday’s by-election in Durham, when combined with consensus of polling, shows the challenge faced by both LPC and NDP. 1/n
LPC now in 3 front battle. CPC in suburbs, west, Atlantic. NDP in cities. BQ in Quebec. Have less animated vote than ‘15. CPC vote decided and engaged. BQ and NDP have momentum. No big events left. Voting starts this weekend. Time running out.
Interesting numbers in our fed political polling for
@globalnews
last week. 24% plan to vote LPC. 8% of this 24% want PMJT to resign. Means only 16% would vote LPC with PMJT as leader. This is where PM Mulroney was in ‘92.
Bonus tweet. Everything we (and now you) are seeing in our post-budget polling the LPC is also now seeing in its own post-budget polling. Will be interesting to see how this effects their political communications and decision making over the next 30 days.
All of this puts NDP in a tough spot. How long will they want to be associated with keeping this government in power? They too need to find a way to represent authentic change. Otherwise they will be caught on the wrong side of a building wave. 5/5
Reading much commentary about how O’Toole moved his party to the centre in this election. No. It was about moving it to the SUBURBS. It’s less about ideology and more about location. It may seem like splitting hairs but it’s an important difference.
Statistical reminder. There will be no poll published in this election that should EVER be reported with decimals. Margin of error always makes it irrelevant. No exceptions. Round up or down as appropriate.
Growing voter consensus on SNC-LAVALIN has collapsed Liberal vote to lowest level since last election. Consistent across the country and most demo groups. This all happened BEFORE JWR tape. 2/2
More than I can ever remember, my reaction to stats in the media is disbelief. Graphs with misleading axes, meaningless increases and decreases reported as important, no reference to baselines, wonky samples, cherry picked numbers to promote a story line. It’s an epidemic.
As I read commentary on this forum in which advocates go into great detail about how fair the CGT increase is, how it targets only the right people, etc I’m reminded of the Ronald Reagan quote - “in politics, if you’re explaining, you’re losing.” 4/4
Thinking today of my Mom who we lost in July. She was always so proud of the military service of our family. A proud member of the
@RoyalCdnLegion
. Here she is getting ready to place the Legion wreath at the Waterloo cenotaph.
#LestWeForget
When I first started in political polling one rule of thumb was the biggest block of persuadable voters was always Liberal-Conservative switchers. Not anymore. It’s now Lib-NDP switchers. Especially in Suburban ridings. They are the group to watch in the next election.
@shaunhaney
@JohnIbbitson
If you want a country with a declining and old population like Hungary or Serbia, cutting immigration makes sense. Almost all of Canada’s population growth today comes from population aging and immigration.
Challenging motives, questioning interpretations requires superior credibility. The polling shows making it about credibility plays to JWR’s strengths, not the Libs.2/3
In public opinion the federal carbon tax has transformed from being about carbon and climate into being about the tax. It has morphed into a political liability for the Trudeau Liberals similar to what the GST was for the Mulroney PCs in the early ‘90s.
My advice? Ignore twitter, columns, political shows. Go on Stats Cd website and learn how Canada is changing. Go to the suburbs and walk around. Look and listen. How do they see things? What are their struggles? What do they value? Connecting with this is key to winning. 4/4
Our latest poll on housing for
@globalnews
shows how desperate it has become. 80% say owning a home in Canada is only for the rich. That’s up 11pts since last March. 72% (+9%) say they have given up now on ever owning a home. Numbers are higher for Gen Z, Millennials. 1/n
If budget was supposed to please Gen Z and Millennials, they are slightly more positive about it than older generations. But reaction among Gen Z and Millennials still overwhelmingly negative. The same goes for every other major demographic group and region. 3/n