I write a new column: The inability of the US to make masks, protective gear, and even swabs shows that it has prematurely deindustrialized. The country abandoned manufacturing with gladness, under the delusion that the most valuable work was done onshore.
Shanghai is really on edge right now over accelerating Covid cases; I haven’t seen everyone this nervous since February 2020… a lot of rumors are swirling amidst the confirmed news that schools are now closed, flights are being diverted, and public events are getting canceled
My annual letter:
This year I discuss China as a place that both moves fast & breaks things and moves fast & breaks people; Lem’s ocean; Mozart’s most strange and subtle opera; dynamism; the Sichuan Basin; prophets over pragmatists; Metaverse; and more.
The biggest COVID mystery to me is why South Asia and Southeast Asia are reporting so few cases.
Is it lack of testing (certainly a factor) or validation of the heat theory (virus will burn off when the world warms)? One spells looming disaster, the other cause for optimism.
My annual letter:
This year I discuss China's institutional strengths as well as its growing repressiveness; technology as a means to avoid decadence & complacency; Proust; the party's main theory journal; biking in Beijing; a culinary ranking; and more.
I find the situation in China to be very strange right now: it’s never been so hard to get in and out of Beijing.
The government is nervous and has become more brutal: a baby was tested 74 times for Covid; one Jiangxi county turned all traffic lights red
My annual letter:
This year I discuss the weaknesses of Chinese technology capabilities and its future prospects; Olaf Stapledon and Philip K. Dick; semiconductors & defense spending; life in Beijing; Ford’s Model T; Goebbels; and the golden mole.
More reporting on TSMC’s struggles in Arizona: construction costs are at least four times higher in the US than Taiwan, and the company isn’t used to the American workforce
I just finished a 600km cycling trip from Guiyang to Chongqing, five days through mountains. It was hard. After feeling cooped up in 2020, I really wanted to see some lush nature, and boy did I get it
Too many smart young people move into law and consulting, which are "low-return, high-stability, establishment-oriented activities." And US elites are primarily drawing from this class of people who have had the capacity for risk-taking beaten out of them.
My annual letter:
This year I discuss a walk-and-talk; Crumb; running and tangping; Knausgaard; Elon as Palmer Eldritch; quantity has a quality all its own; Chicago as a megacity; memelords; Norton; food as physical pleasure; hunching; and a pause.
My annual letter (sorry it's a bit late this year):
This year I discuss the mountains; Jesuit dramas; a twisted logic; ideological revelry; rude nicknames; protests; becoming a barbarian; sweetgrass and banana leafs; Shanghai; and the matsutake mushroom.
I wrote a piece in this March/April issue of Foreign Affairs: China's focus on manufacturing sometimes beats America's focus on science. The US laid the scientific groundwork in the solar industry, for example, only for China to build all the panels. The US must re-learn scaling
Process knowledge: Chinese workers that manufacture high-end audio equipment are now making their own designs that "outperform their better known, better marketed rivals, usually doing so at a fraction of the price."
ht
@andrewbatson
Pretty incredible that Chinese are fleeing to the US via the Mexican border.
And: “The United Nations refugee agency counted 116,868 Chinese seeking asylum around the world at a point measured in mid-2022, up from 15,362 at the end of 2012, the year Mr. Xi took power.”
China is preparing to be more coercive to vaccinate its elderly: if residents over 60 in this Shanghai district don’t get the shot (and can’t provide a medical reason for refusing), they’ll lose various benefits like their rice subsidy and holiday gifts
I wrote for Foreign Affairs on China’s new technology drive. US export controls have victimized China's leading firms, giving all of them something to fear from being dependent on US technology. Now they're pursuing self-sufficiency with a vengeance:
The Wuhan local govt probably acted far too slowly. But cities in Italy and Korea are now also struggling to deal with outbreaks, after plenty of time to prepare. So maybe this is just an unusually contagious virus, which would have overwhelmed any different political system.
“A left-wing suspicion of rich entrepreneurs (fused) with a right-wing reluctance to hand money to the idle poor”
China’s ideology today… the worst of both worlds?
The Shanghai 2022 lockdown is worse than the Wuhan 2020 lockdown: many people are on their last reserves of fresh food, without knowing when they can receive their delivery of government rations or supermarket groceries
Staring down the end of our fresh food supply this morning while frantically trying to buy groceries on multiple platforms. Wondering whether all we really need is love. Then our neighbourhood committee said it would start bulk buying. So grateful and hoping for eggs.
Is it really the case that we’ve made no substantial progress on cancer? The current age-adjusted mortality rate is the same as in 1930, and the recent decline only tracks the fall in smoking.
I’ve spent the past month in Shanghai, which I think is the best place in the world right now: It’s always been the most fun and livable city in China; and there has been no transmission of the virus since April, with restaurants, bars, and museums all open for months.
Why is China smashing its tech sector?
Is it really about antitrust? I doubt it.
I think it's because what we think of as "tech" is not the kind of tech China's leaders have decided they want.
I’ve been living in this Bai-style farmhouse in Dali for the last three months. Now the owner (who’s in Europe) and I are looking for someone to take it over for the rest of the year.
Rent is nominal; must feed the cat. If you might move in, DM me
A few months before being hit with a series of crippling US sanctions, Huawei completed the construction of its new R&D center, an hour north of Shenzhen. These are replicas of a dozen towns that include Heidelberg, Bruges, Fribourg, Oxford, and Verona.
Another decline of manufacturing process knowledge in America: Between 1990 and 2020, the time required to build a semiconductor fab increased by 38%, from 665 days to 918 days, while the total number of new fabs halved
I’ve been texting friends to leave Beijing, even if there’s a small chance that it becomes Shanghai. There are too many parallels: case numbers that stubbornly refuse to go down; escalating restrictions; and a complacent feeling that “it just can’t happen here”
BEIJING LATEST:
- Labour Day COVID-19 restrictions extended
- Dining in at restaurants will continue to be suspended, only takeaway or delivery allowed
- All in the most affected Chaoyang district to work from home
- Also as many subway stations in the area have been shut
Cultural encouragement of semiconductors: a studio is making a 40-episode TV drama on the story of a Chinese student who returned from the US (after Beijing's enticement) to build a chip company, and afterwards guide future generations
纵横芯海/59218176
My column is in part a response to
@pmarca
, who argues that the US lacks the will to build.
I think there's more to it than that: The US has let its process knowledge decay, which means that it has forgotten and meaningfully lost the ability to build.
I wrote for
@TheAtlantic
on the ongoing prosecutions of scientists:
“The U.S. is protecting its tools and blueprints while harming a far more valuable asset: its scientists and scientific communities”
I wonder if anyone has a book recommendation: how the Soviet Union developed strength in science. Wasn’t pre-USSR Russia very poor? Was it mostly due to research foundations built during the war? And why was it also strong in math?
Appreciate any suggestions you all might have.
I wrote a longer piece for
@NYMag
on life in Beijing over the last two months. The country declared a "people's war," which demanded mobilization of the whole society to contain the outbreak.
Shanghai's protest intensified today and the situation feels fairly volatile. Everyone today has something to be mad about: factory workers, students, urban parents, shop-owners, etc
Meanwhile the state is ramping up censorship and boosting police presence (photo via
@yangxifan
)
The Intercontinental Shenzhen is a fun hotel. It feels like something designed by people who have never been to Spain, but were allowed to indulge every Spanish stereotype. Its pool has a galleon:
Score another point for the argument that textiles have been an underrated technology: the pharmaceutical industry grew out of the German and Swiss strength in organic chemistry, which was stimulated by their dominance of synthetic dyes
On Friday, Xi presided over the 24th group study session of the Politburo, whose theme was quantum technologies. By my count, it’s the fourth study session of the 19th Politburo devoted to tech:
2nd - Digitization
9th - AI
18th - Blockchain
24th - Quantum
I prepared three items at home to survive a potentially severe lockdown that the Shanghai government might impose to contain omicron: mooncakes (high-caloric and long-storing); a bike with a trainer (to cycle through the Metaverse); and the Hebrew Bible (Robert Alter translation)
Party members are starting to face exhortations to have three children per family for the good of the state:
It reminds me that the SS fined its officers if they did not deliver four children per family
I wrote a short piece on China and technology. A slowing economy and a demographic drag aren't enough to break technological momentum, but politics might:
Unnerving to find that I’m allowed to accuse the UK of being over-specialized in “sounding-clever industries” in the pages of the FT
Whatever next, the BBC?
The Parable of the Pottery Class might find application in many areas, including China’s industrial policy pushes.
Manufacturing starts off poorly, but the firms and workers learn. It worked for masks, to solar panels, and maybe soon semiconductors.
Madrid subway planner: no monuments, no new technologies, a focus on speed and iterated learning
SF's Van Ness bus lane addition: use the wrong maps, double the construction time, exceed the budget of $300mn by a quarter
Swiss cartographers like to add illicit drawings to remote areas of official maps. If they succeed, it means they've outsmarted their colleagues.
A coping mechanism: "Their entire professional life is spent at the magnification level of a postage stamp."
If Beijing is releasing detained chip officials because it values their talents, then it has the air of Stalin rehabilitating purged generals because he needs them again
By contrast in China, which has aggregated much of the world's production, a vast pool of experienced engineers allows factories to quickly retool. China's cultivation of process knowledge sets it up for adaptability and future technological success.
US tariffs hurt the US economy a bit. More importantly it failed to change China’s economic model and did not entice US firms to walk away: “We found that new U.S. tariffs in 2018 and 2019 had a minimal effect on divestment”
I'm struck that the US has concentrated its fire on (mostly) China's innovative private companies, instead of the state-owned firms.
Many (like Tencent and Huawei) are based in Shenzhen, the freewheeling city furthest away from Beijing in terms of political attitudes.
The U.S. ban on Tencent (WeChat) and Bytedance (TikTok) is a huge deal not because it changes things in the U.S., but because it potentially changes things *within* China.
We don’t dwell enough on the fact that there are almost certainly oceans on the moons of Jupiter, kept warm by hydrothermal activity. Why haven't we devoted much more effort to try to discover extraterrestrial life within our very own solar system?
I wonder how many research firms in China are covered by this state-media warning: “foreign consulting firm are finding new ways to harm national security, by citing economic work, biology, or technology as a pretext.” (paraphrase)
According to the WHO situation dashboard, India has reported 34 cases, Bangladesh 3, Vietnam 21, Philippines 6, Malaysia 93, Indonesia 6. Are heat and humidity stopping the virus in its tracks, or are these countries just not testing?
This tantalizing paper suggests that there’s potentially a repeatable method to achieve creative hot streaks, first by exploring widely, then by focusing:
I wonder if it still works if we consciously adopt it as a tactic
- Little spending on R&D
- Largest companies are becoming less globally competitive
- Services are 80% of economy
- Low productivity growth
- Schools teach only debate skills, and then country let clever debaters take over the government
See
@Noahpinion
:
STOP normalising the British 🚫 🇬🇧
STOP normalising the British 🚫 🇬🇧
STOP normalising the British 🚫 🇬🇧
STOP normalising the British 🚫 🇬🇧
STOP normalising the British 🚫 🇬🇧
STOP normalising the British 🚫 🇬🇧
STOP normalising the British 🚫 🇬🇧
STOP normalising the British 🚫 🇬🇧
“In China, tech innovations have come not from universities but through the learning process generated by mass production itself. At the heart of the country’s ascendancy in advanced technology, then, is its spectacular capacity for making things.”
China’s biotech industry is so far a disappointment: no deployment of an mRNA vaccine, not yet an invention of novel medicines, an immature system for research… I wonder when we’ll see more obvious signs of Chinese innovation here
Barcelona is for me the best food city in Europe:
Cooking styles more varied than any Italian city, more “fun” than French food, superb beef and seafood at both cheap and fancy price points; there’s also a surprising amount of Asian food, featuring fusion that actually works
I wrote about reading the party’s main theory journal last year, and bemoaned the fact that it was such a lonely activity. Most people scorn partyspeak, but there’s reason to treat its content with care:
It's remarkable how often China government actions that shock the market turn out to have been clearly signaled in advance in various political speeches by Xi. It's almost as if he communicates his priorities to a bureaucracy that then implements them.
BREAKING – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says Michael Kovrig and Micheal Spavor are on a plane back to Canada right now. After a 1000+ days in a Chinese prison, the two Michaels are on their way back home
#cdnpoli
I was excited to speak with Jim Fallows for this Stripe Session. The point I’m always trying to convey is that China is both dynamic and repressive: both move fast and break things, and move fast and break people. Neither part should be neglected.
My favorite hike in China has been through the Helan Mountains in Ningxia, at the western terminus of the Great Wall.
The gentle climate, placid blue skies, and golden light on pine trees make me feel for the first time in a year like I’ve been back home, to California
A friend in Amsterdam experiments with making dumplings and pancakes with pizza dough; sesame paste with tahini; and alkali noodles with linguine:
It turns out that pizza dough is a miracle ingredient for the overseas Chinese cook
Circulating on WeChat: “WeChat might soon be banned in the US. It will be like 40 years ago, when post and international phone cards were the only ways to talk with loved ones. Better get everyone’s number, say goodbye to friend groups, and speak your final thoughts now.”
I've dipped into Clubhouse only a little, not finding it terribly interesting. But it was marvelous to see, but for a minute, a unified internet: in which mainlanders can engage with overseas Mandarin speakers, and Chinese product managers could exchange notes with US peers.
Great photo of the South Korean president outside a new Samsung facility. I wish it were more common for politicians to celebrate construction by standing in front of gigantic cranes:
I'm struck that every DC initiative on Chinese tech starts from "How do we tighten controls on US technology?" and not "Are we weakening the trust that American companies can be reliable suppliers, and are we then favoring non-US competitors?"
My piece gets into some of the public health measures that Wuhan took, like the centralized quarantine system it implemented on February 1st, ten days after the city locked down. These are the measures that contained the virus, but are still mostly absent in the rest of world.
GE Aviation is laying off around 13,000 of its 52,000 workers. Bad news for the aviation sector, which along with semiconductors, is one of the few bright spots left in US manufacturing.
As the US works out its COVID response, a few things from Beijing look replicable:
- Canceling large-scale events
- Fever checks in dense areas
- Encouraging social distance
One important thing Beijing did right: food logistics. Supermarkets have always been well-stocked.
It never occurred to me to wonder how Chinese characters were adapted to the telegraph. (Poorly)
From a review of what looks like an interesting new book on the reinvention of Chinese script for modern technologies:
I wrote a new column on escalating US tech restrictions. They’ve done what Beijing couldn’t manage: to align leading firms with the state's self-sufficiency and technological greatness goals.
China can now count on a whole-of-society effort on technology: