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Dan Miller Profile
Dan Miller

@danmiller999

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ClimateTech VC. Postings on climate change, CDR, SRM, climate policy & pinball. Host of Climate Chat on YouTube:

SF Bay Area
Joined April 2009
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
3 years
Here is my TEDx talk on climate science, history & psychology that includes an explanation of Carbon Fee & Dividend that cuts emissions in half, creates millions of jobs while helping the economy & supporting social & environmental justice: #ClimateAction
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
2 years
I asked #ChatGPT4 to explain #ClimateChange in the voice of #Shakespeare . The result is quite extraordinary: 1/8
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Dan Miller
1 year
WHAT?! "the world is already past a point-of-no-return for global warming. In [climate model] we observe self-sustained thawing of the permafrost for 100s of years, even if global society stops all emissions of man-made GHGs immediately."
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
7 months
James Hansen ( @DrJamesEHansen ) released a white paper today titled “Global Warming Acceleration: Hope vs Hopium.” The following thread summarizes some of the key points. #ClimateCrisis #ClimateAction #GlobalWarming Here is link to the paper: 1/20
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Dan Miller
2 years
It's time to re-post @KevinClimate 's quote about the lack of non-radical futures:
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Dan Miller
4 months
@drvolts “Ironically, one of the best proofs that information does not change people attitudes is that science communicators continue to ignore the extensive research evidence that shows that information does not change people’s attitudes.” - George Marshall in Don't Even Think About It.
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
1 year
James Hansen just publish a new newsletter titled “To Understand and Protect the Home Planet”. Here is summary of the key points: 1/11
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
2 years
To halt this change, we must our ways amend, Turn from the path which leads us to our end, Embrace the power of sun and wind and wave, And strive, dear friends, our noble world to save. 8/8
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
2 years
@AndrewDessler It's like getting a fever. The first 1~2ºF makes you feel bad, the fourth keeps you in bed and the eighth kills you.
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
1 year
James Hansen's "Global Warming in the Pipeline" peer-reviewed paper comes out today! A few points: -Climate sensitivity is ~4.8ºC, not IPCC's 3ºC (Uh oh!) -Passing 1.5ºC this decade, 2ºC in next 2 decades -Need solar geoengineering to avoid tipping points
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
1 year
Harvard study showing 8 million dies in 2018 from pollution from burning of fossil fuel. 18% of all deaths!
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
2 years
Prithee, attend, thou gentle souls and wise, To hear a tale of warming in our skies, A change that doth the very earth beset, And causeth all in sundry ways to fret. 2/8
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
2 years
In days of yore, when men didst burn with greed, The blackened stone and ebon oils did feed Their wanton lust for progress, wealth, and might, Unwittingly they set a course for blight. 3/8
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
1 year
Climate scientist @LeonSimons8 , in my Clubhouse Climate Chat interview today, says he expects *2024* average global temp to +1.7ºC above pre-industrial! Also, next 12 months may be +1.8ºC. Mind blowing!
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
2 years
Now, mark me well, dear friends, as I relate The consequence of mankind's folly great: The time is nigh when all that dwell on earth, Must reckon with the cost of progress' birth. 7/8
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
2 years
Forsooth, this gas, with others of its kin, Doth form a veil 'round all the world so thin, That traps the sun's warm rays within its fold, And causeth Mother Earth to sweat untold. 5/8
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
2 years
By burning these, they spewed into the air A noxious gas, invisible yet fair, This gas, which men doth call carbon dioxide, A potent brew that nature doth deride. 4/8
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
1 year
Wow, climate scientist James Hansen doesn't mince words about the IPCC and models showing we are on a path to stay under 2ºC!
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
2 years
I asked #ChatGPT4 to explain #climatechange in the voice of #Shakespeare . The result is quite extraordinary:
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
2 years
By slow degrees, the oceans and the land Do feel the grip of this ungentle hand, Which melteth ice and causeth seas to rise, And storm and drought to plague our mortal lives. 6/8
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Dan Miller
2 months
Wow! We just had the geekiest Climate Chat discussion ever with @EliotJacobson & @LeonSimons8 about CO2e, GHG forcing, Earth Energy Imbalance... things that sound geeky but will seriously impact the lives of you & your children.
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
4 months
Climate Scientists James Hansen @DrJamesEHansen , Leon Simons @LeonSimons8 et al have released a new communications titled ”The World Will Cool Off – A Bit – and Other Good News!”. Link is below and a summary follows in this 🧵 1/X
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Dan Miller
3 months
James Hansen @DrJamesEHansen published a new communications today titled “Reflections on Time Scales and Butterflies.” A link is below & my summary of the main points follows in this thread. 1/X
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Dan Miller
1 year
@StuartBCapstick @ThierryAaron @CAST_Centre @CaroVerfuerth This quote from climate scientist Kevin Anderson @KevinClimate comes to mind:
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Dan Miller
1 year
He repeated that his Ice Melt paper says that an AMOC shutdown can happen around mid-century even though the IPCC says it won’t. And that “several meters” (10+ feet) of sea level rise can happen in 50~150 years! 11/11
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
2 years
@EliotJacobson Jim Hansen & I did the calculation of 400,000 back in 2012. It is shocking how much it increased in only 10 years!
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
9 months
"You may not be interested in the AMOC, but the AMOC is interested in you." Here is my interview with Peter Ditlevsen on the coming collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ( #AMOC ), a critical #climate tipping point: Key points follow.
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
1 year
I will add that this is one more indication that we need Climate Restoration which means in addition to emissions reduction, we need carbon dioxide removal (CDR) & solar radiation management (SRM). All are cheaper than not doing them.
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
6 months
@hausfath James Hansen-"Of course, one can devise a scenario that stays under 2°C via a miraculous transition to zero emissions within a few decades, but the real world pays no attention to imaginary scenarios. Instead, the real world responds to the actual growth of GHG climate forcings.”
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
2 years
Here it is all together:
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
1 year
Hansen spoke again about “Scientific Reticence” & how scientists want to downplay the risks we are taking. He described how a peer review board required him to change the phrase “2ºC global warming is highly dangerous” to “2ºC global warming could be dangerous”! 10/11
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Dan Miller
1 year
His “Global Warming in the Pipeline” peer-reviewed paper will publish next week. It provides an alternative view of climate vs what the IPCC says. He's not criticizing IPCC researchers but rather the IPCC procedures & product & lack of needed advice to protect young people. 2/11
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
1 year
The Pipeline paper reveals that “climate sensitivity” (the warming response to a doubling of CO2) is higher than the IPCC assumes. This means the aerosol effect is underestimated & there will be more warming from future GHG emissions than was assumed. 6/11
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
3 years
@hausfath @_A_Stein_ Agree that it is crazy to shut down existing safe nuclear plants, but if you have $10B to spend on *new* energy, you should skip nuclear & go with wind/solar/storage because (1) you will get more energy per $ & (2) you will get it 10 years sooner & time is of the essence.
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
3 years
@KevinClimate @BBCr4today It comes as a surprise to many, but it turns out that you can't reduce fossil fuel emissions by increasing them!
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
1 year
The reliance on models has led to policymakers being misinformed about future climate change as evidenced by claims that climate targets can still be achieved by reducing emissions alone. The Pipeline paper will show why that is a fiction. 8/11
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
7 months
Understanding that global warming is accelerating is important because it shows futility of current ”wishful thinking” net-zero “hopium” policies. 6/20
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
1 year
@ClimateBen Yes, it's going to get worse even if we reduce emissions, though it can get even more catastrophic if we don't. The other lie is that keep warming to 2ºC or 1.5ºC is acceptable and will leave a livable world for our children.
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Dan Miller
1 year
Required Actions: 1) Global increasing price on GHG emissions (carbon tax) & deployment of abundant, cheap clean energy. See Hansen & my white paper on carbon pricing policy: 7/9
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
7 months
But Hansen says evidence shows IPCC’s models that assume 3ºC warming for a doubling of CO2 are wrong & the correct value is 4.8ºC. This also means that aerosol forcing (cooling) is larger than IPCC assumes. 11/20
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
4 months
Must-watch talk on the risk of a near-term AMOC collapse from someone who has studied it for 30 years. This will likely impact your and/or your childrens lives.
@rahmstorf
Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf 🌏 🦣
4 months
One of the most ominous risks for Europe is that of a major change in Atlantic ocean currents. Recent science suggests it has been greatly underestimated in the past -including by me, having worked on it for over 30 years. Here my half-hour presentation in Vilnius a week ago!
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Dan Miller
1 year
The IPCC relies heavily on models. Hansen & his team focus on paleoclimate history, models & current observations of climate change. This approach was used in Hansen’s 2016 paper “Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise, and Superstorms” & the Pipeline paper. 3/11
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
2 years
@GlobalEcoGuy Mining metals for renewable energy reduces destructive mining of fossil fuels >90%. Things we mine today: Lithium (metal eq.): 0.1 Mtonne/year Aluminum: 60 Mtonne/year Iron: 1,500 Mtonne/year Oil: 4,500 Mtonne/year Coal: 8,500 Mtonne/year
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
1 year
James Hansen: "Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change implies that fast-feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is 1.2 ± 0.3°C (2σ) per W/m2." ie, Our GHG emissions to date leads to 4.9ºC warming with only "fast feedbacks" considered!
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Dan Miller
1 year
Equilibrium global warming (eventual temp incl. slow feedbacks) for today’s GHG amount is 10°C (8ºC w/ today’s amount of aerosol cooling). 8~10ºC is extinction level but this is NOT committed warming. Rapid phaseout of GHG emissions would prevent most of this from occurring. 3/9
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
2 years
James Hansen and 14 co-authors recently released a preprint (not yet peer reviewed) paper titled “Global Warming in the Pipeline.” Here is a summary of some of the key points of this quite long (48 page) paper: 1/x
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
2 years
@EliotJacobson By his logic the current levels of fossil fuel extraction are impossible. Sounds like FF industry arguments. Eg, lithium is an abundant element. Supply will increase with demand. Oceans have 1000X what we need.
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
1 year
Paleoclimate data shows 450ppm CO2 (we are now at 420ppm) is transition to nearly ice free world so IPCC’s ice sheet models are not realistic. Note that it takes a long time to melt all the ice. 4/9
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Dan Miller
1 year
Under the present geopolitical approach to GHG emissions, we will pass 1.5ºC *trend* in the 2020s and 2ºC in the 2030s or 2040s. 6/9
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
1 year
Clean up of sulphur pollution (aerosols) has caused the *rate* of global warming to increase by 50%+ from 0.18ºC/decade in 1970-2010 to at least 0.27ºC/decade since 2010. 5/9
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
1 year
“Climate Sensitivity” (temp increase for 2X CO2 with only “fast feedbacks”) is ~4.8ºC which is much higher than IPCC’s 3ºC. This means we should see higher temps than the IPCC predicts as we increase GHGs. 2/9
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
2 years
Worried about lithium mining? For every ton of lithium mined annually, we mine 100,000 tons of coal & ~50,000 tons of oil (0.08 vs 8000 vs 4200 Mtonnes).
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
1 year
Hansen again called for the deployment of nuclear power to replace FF energy (I believe that renewables are cheaper, can be deployed faster, & can provide 24/7/365 energy with a reasonable amount of storage). 9/11
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
3 years
@susieoftraken I was having lunch with Bill Nye at a science museum when a woman came up trailed by about 30 kids and told Bill: "I'm a science teacher because of you." I wiped away a tear, and Bill told me that it happens often. His fun delivery of science has made a tremendous impact.
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Dan Miller
1 year
It also explains why the world has been warming so rapidly recently as aerosols decrease due to China putting sulphur scrubbers on its coal plants & IMO rules reduced sulphur emissions from ships. 7/11
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
7 months
“the world is approaching a point of no return in which the overturning ocean circulation [AMOC] may shut down as early as midcentury and sea level rise of many meters [>10 ft] will occur on a time scale of 50-150 years” 14/20
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
2 years
@davidrvetter When the Nazis published "100 Scientists Against Einstein", Einstein response, "If I was wrong, it would only take one."
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
1 year
Climate change is driven by 2 human forcings: GHGs & aerosols (eg, coal & ship smoke). Aerosols cool the earth by reflecting the Sun but also by seeding clouds which reflect the Sun. Increased aerosols create smaller cloud drops that lead to brighter & longer lived clouds. 4/11
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
7 months
Global warming in 2010-2023 is 0.30°C/decade, 67% faster than 0.18°C/decade in 1970-2010. During that time, GHG forcing was steady, Sun’s energy didn’t change & volcano impact has been negligible (including Honga Tunga). What remains is aerosol forcing. 8/20
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
1 year
3) Implement Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) & Sunlight Reflection Methods (my term for SRM) to reduce the massive geo-engineering we have been doing to the planet. 9/9
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
7 months
“We expect the average of the El Nino maximum & the La Nina minimum of global temperatures to be ~1.5°C. Given Earth’s huge energy imbalance, it will be clear that for all practical purposes the 1.5°C global warming level has been reached in the mid-2020s.” 13/20
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
1 year
We don’t measure the aerosol effect well because NASA never launched a satellite to measure it directly. So climate models must estimate the aerosol cooling & this can lead to underestimates of the GHG warming. 5/11
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
1 year
Wow! James Hansen's latest newsletter does not disappoint! It's titled "Global Warming is Accelerating. Why? Will We Fly Blind?" & here are the key points: ? 1/X
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
7 months
“Accumulating evidence supports the interpretation in our Pipeline paper: decreasing human-made aerosols increased Earth’s energy imbalance and accelerated global warming in the past decade.” 3/20
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
2 years
@ThierryAaron @bp_plc In other words... It comes as a surprise to many, but it turns out that you cannot reduce fossil fuel emissions by increasing them.
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
7 months
Here is the abstract from the paper: 2/20
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
7 months
Before the last Ice Age, when temps were similar to today, the WAIS collapsed & sea levels rose several meters in less than 100 years. During the Pliocene (2.5~5.4 million years ago) GHG levels were like today & sea levels were 50-80 feet higher than today. 16/20
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
3 months
@PGDynes While 46ºC is really hot, 20ºC (the start of the red shading) is room temperature, so this map is making it look like everywhere is hot, when that is not the case.
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
1 year
2) East-West cooperation in a way that accommodates developing world needs. 8/9
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
2 years
I asked #ChatGPT4 to explain #ClimateChange in the voice of #Shakespeare . The result is quite extraordinary:
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
2 years
@ClimateAdam Here you go...
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
1 year
More from Hansen pre-print. Chance of AMOC/Gulf Stream shutdown & 10+ feet of sea level rise this century is much higher than IPCC says.
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
7 months
IPCC’s best estimates for climate sensitivity (warming caused by a doubling of GHGs) and aerosol forcing (cooling from coal, ship, etc. smoke) both understate reality. 4/20
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
1 year
@Ant_Partnership @BOM_au In the past decade or so, there have been record highs as well as lows of Antarctic sea ice. Record highs and lows (increased volatility) are a sign of a phase change (tipping point) on the way.
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
7 months
“Good News:” Climate models show a fast response to forcing changes, so steps to lower the Earth energy Imbalance (EEI) [such as Sunlight Reflection Methods (SRM)] should result in a quick lowering of temperature. 18/20
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
7 months
“Preservation of global shorelines and global climate patterns – the world humanity is adapted to – likely will require at least partly reversing global warming.” [ie, Using CDR & SRM to reverse the geoengineering we have done to the planet.] 7/20
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
7 months
Lack of warming in the Southern Ocean (yellow band across the bottom of Fig. 5) is an indicator of the approach of a Point of No Return: the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). 15/20
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
7 months
“Global Warming in the Pipeline” paper showing accelerated global warming was greeted by some scientists with a large public following (e.g., Michael Mann) with denial. 5/20
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
2 years
@nephologue Actually, renewables (except for the FF energy used to create/install them) are climate neutral but FF are climate negative. Building RE doesn't help climate but getting rid of FF does. Our policies should phase out FF rather than promote RE.
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
7 months
Much of the acceleration in warming occurred over the North Pacific & North Atlantic where ship aerosols decreased due to new International Maritime Organization (IMO) fuel regulations. 9/20
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
3 years
@WeatherProf And already, Extremely Hot Summers (>3-sigma the 1951-1980 mean) happen 200X (20,000%) more often that 50 years ago. Not a prediction & not based on models. Already happened & based on thermometer readings.
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
7 months
Aerosols are key to understanding global warming but they remain unmeasured & are usually inferred by climate models in order to make the models match observations. 10/20
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
3 years
List of climate actions we should implement now. @tnatw
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
2 years
@davelevitan Climate scientists are conservative in the opposite way that risk managers (eg, in an insurance company) are conservative.
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
7 months
Hansen derides lack of progress on nuclear power in past decades & takes a swipe at Amory Lovins who convinced Bill Clinton that nuclear wasn’t necessary since he said wind, solar and energy efficiency were all that was needed. 17/20
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
7 months
Listen to my upcoming discussion [Sunday, March 31 at 10am PT] on this “Global Warming Acceleration: Hope vs Hopium” white paper here: 20/20
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
7 months
Data shows that increased forcing (warming) from IMO ship rules is ~10X more than IPCC models show: at least 0.7W/m^2 vs. 0.079 W/m^2 for the IPCC. 12/20
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
1 year
Note that other climate scientists (Mann, etc.) say the model used in this paper is too simple & more complex models do not show the permafrost runaway feedback effect. I am not saying the paper is correct but we have enough info now to pursue Climate Restoration urgently.
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
7 months
P.S. Hansen is looking for additional funding for his group. If you would like to help, go to
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@danmiller999
Dan Miller
7 months
In case you missed it, here are some great Climate Chat interviews with folks like @DrJamesEHansen @KevinClimate @LeonSimons8 @dfenton @StupidFunWill and @EliotJacobson . Links to YouTube videos follow:
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