Daniel McCarthy @d_mccar Twitter profile

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@Its__Maine

Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

1 month

A lot of interesting data points from this @theinformation article by @amir . This gives us a hint as to the contribution margin and CLV of @OpenAI paid subscribers, how much is lost per free user, and the freemium conversion calculus. 5 things we need to account for: 1) CLV

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

7 months

🚨New Paper Alert!🚨 The overall churn rate is one of the most popular disclosures for subscription businesses. When it falls, executives will say this is a sign that business is going well. We show that in general, it tells us almost nothing about how a business is doing.

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

4 years

I've had no alcohol for the past 2 months. The most random, unexpected change? Dreams. For the life of me, I can't recall dreaming at all earlier. I now have these long, vivid dreams pretty much every night. Go figure.

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

3 years

1/10 I was reading @profgalloway 's note on @Aspiration and could barely believe what I was reading. Two things... It takes guts to celebrate adjusted EBITDAM, or adjusted EBITDA minus marketing expenses.

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

9 months

I couldn't be more excited to share that I've accepted an offer to join the @SmithSchool as an Associate Professor of Marketing. I will be joining one of the most active, productive, and friendly marketing groups in the country. And I'll be going home, literally -- I grew up in

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

4 years

[1/4] With all the C3's disclosed in S-1's last week, ever wondered how easy it was to create a C3 from a transaction log? You're in luck: here's a deck I cobbled together that shows you how to generate this and many other summaries of customer activity:

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

4 years

[1/3] A few people have asked about the syllabus for my class, Customer Lifetime Valuation, that I'll be teaching this Fall. For those interested, a link to it is here: This will be a *ton* of fun, and Emory students, I'd love to have you!

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

2 years

Valuation comes from future profits, which are a function of revenue and margin, where revenue is a function of users and ARPU. No one is disputing $TWTR's revenue. The debate is now over the valuation implication of a smaller number of "real" users.

Matt Levine

@matt_levine

2 years

happy saturday

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

3 months

🚨 Working paper alert! 🚨 "Evaluating The Impact of Privacy Regulation on E-Commerce Firms: Evidence from Apple's App Tracking Transparency" with Guy Aridor, Yeon-Koo Che, Brett Hollenbeck, and Max Kaiser. We study the impact of Apple's ATT on advertising effectiveness, how

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

4 years

[1/8]Given all the uncertainty swirling around it, I put together a detailed analysis of $DASH's unit economics. As it turns out, a relatively simple model captures most of the customer dynamics (great fits!). Key insights:

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

2 years

@tanayj I can be at peace with not having the y-axis limit bottom at 0% for both, but to scale them differently? Really? Holding that aside, results are consistent with what I found in a recent paper I co-wrote: Did you have a link to the underlying note?

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

6 years

We took a deep dive into unit economics at @lyft . Main take-aways: constructive unit economics stemming from positive CLV's, low and stable CAC, but with risk in that the value is coming from a fairly small proportion of each cohort:

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

5 years

A few quick thoughts on $CSPR: 1) As mentioned earlier, no cohorted data, but no surprise there (). 2) Only repeat purchase data points: 14% of customers returned within a year of original purchase, 20% of customers in DTC were repeaters.

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

5 years

Hot off the presses! New post on the virtues the customer cohort chart ("C3"). It's the single most informative disclosure from a CBCV perspective. Tells us a lot about acquisition, retention, monetization, and how they are changing across cohorts.

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

6 years

Our latest customer-based analysis of @farfetch , with @faderp and Val R. The unit economics here are extremely impressive They spend < $100 to acquire customers, CAC has been declining, while the value of those customers post-acquisition is ~$1000. [1/2]

Farfetch IPO Valuation Case Study: A CBCV Perspective in Q2 2019

Strong unit economics support its projected valuation. We review the Farfetch IPO valuation case study. Learn more at Theta Equity Partners.

www.thetaequity.com

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

4 years

How is it that no one I know is talking about Myyheresa? What an informational treasure trove they put in their F-1 -- one of the most detailed I've seen. Tables of CAC. Multiple cohort charts. Rich (and encouraging).

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

3 years

UPDATE: Their CAC is probably significantly higher than $27. Someone spotted that their definition of CAC is acquisition costs divided by active customers and not new customers acquired. What on earth definition is this? We could still back it out from the retention figures...

Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

3 years

Lots of great customer data in the @WarbyParker S-1. A few interesting tidbits: --Blended CAC of $25 is pretty low, but then again, 2/3rds of their sales came through physical stores pre-COVID (=> lower CAC but more store-related overhead).

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

4 years

It can be very dangerous to short high-growth companies acquiring customers with extremely strong CLV's. Implied marginal ROIC >> cost of capital + growth options + unclear time to mean reversion => wide range of plausible valuations. $SHOP $PTON

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

3 years

The more time I spend doing this stuff, the more strongly I've come to believe that the subscription / non-subscription distinction is not as big as it seems. Subscription companies are actually non-subscription companies.

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

3 years

It seems to me like the pendulum is swinging too hard for $PTON (weird for me to say given I could be considered kind of negative on their retention). Let's take a deep breath and go through pre-pandemic economics and how they've changed. Spreadsheet:

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

3 years

Lots of great customer data in the @WarbyParker S-1. A few interesting tidbits: --Blended CAC of $25 is pretty low, but then again, 2/3rds of their sales came through physical stores pre-COVID (=> lower CAC but more store-related overhead).

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

2 years

We are basically "kissing" the pre-pandemic trendline for ecomm as a % of retail sales. It's not that digital growth is going away - it's just that the growth may end up being what we would have expected given the pre-pandemic trajectory.

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

1 year

Sharing some good news - I was lucky enough to make it onto the list of best b-school professors under 40!! At 39, I think they were taking it easy on me - it was now or never...

2023 Best 40-Under-40 MBA Professors: Daniel McCarthy, Emory University’s Goizueta Business School

Congrats to Daniel McCarthy of Emory University’s Goizueta Business School for being named a 2023 Best 40-Under-40 MBA Professor.

poetsandquants.com

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

4 years

@chamath Solid unit economics at Slack:

Slack IPO Valuation & CBCV Case Study: Economic Insights Part 2

Very attractive unit economics but with a very long payback period. We review the Slack IPO valuation case study. Learn more at Theta Equity Partners.

www.thetaequity.com

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

5 years

My colleague Val and I took a much closer look at @onepeloton 's customer-related disclosures to piece apart the role of the 12, 24, 39-month prepaid plans. The conclusions may surprise. Not obvious to me that they have a smoking gun retention issue. [1/5]

Is Peloton hiding a retention "smoking gun" in its churn disclosures? Maybe not.

[Joint work with Val Rastorguev] I had made some positive comments regarding Peloton's unit economics over various social media recently in advance of their upcoming IPO (link), while cautioning that...

www.linkedin.com

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

5 years

Thought provoking piece @gdibner . A few thoughts: 1-At my company @ThetaEquity , we *always* allow for LTV and CAC to evolve across cohorts. 2-Ratios can be misleading. I'd separately track LTV (technically, post-acquisition value) and CAC. PAV and CAC give us LTV.

Gil Dibner 🇮🇱

@gdibner

5 years

“The Death of the SaaS LTV/CAC” by Michael B. Gilroy

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

3 years

ZipRecruiter is going public via a direct listing... but even more importantly, they dropped some gorgeous cohort data in their S-1 (+ payback period and active customer [employer] data). Very nice customer monetization.

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

5 years

1/Working paper thread! “Assessing the Role of Customer Equity in Corporate Valuation”. TLDR: customers deserve a role in valuation, CE was prescient but ~no uptake outside marketing. We show why and propose CBCV as solution. (LI: )

For marketing to get a seat at the corporate valuation table, we need to move from customer equity...

It is increasingly clear that customers deserve a more prominent role in the process through which firms are valued. Traditional financial information is getting less and less relevant as more and...

www.linkedin.com

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

2 years

1/11🚨"NEW" PAPER ALERT!🚨 New version of my paper with Shin Oblander proposing a method to estimate the long-term impact of major events on consumer purchase behavior. We now analyze the impact of COVID in 12 categories (see below) through June 2022.

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

3 years

After today, I teach the taxonomy of CLV next -- what it is and isn't, and all the other related metrics that are often confused for CLV. This past week has me absolutely convinced that I need to kick this off with the same discussion for CAC...

CLV framework.pptx

Shared with Dropbox

www.dropbox.com

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

2 years

Happy holi everyone! First time, and in India to boot…

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

3 years

[1/6]Excited to share my latest paper with one of our smart PhD students here, Kyeongbin Kim, on economic spillovers that micromobility creates for the local economy. A lot of work had focused on other impacts, but little/none on financial impact.

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

5 years

@WIRED On the plus side, because it is physics, we didn't get deluged with images of very clean white robots with pensive looks on their faces, pointing to goodness knows what.

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

3 months

This has been in the works for a bit, but I am super duper excited to share that I now officially have tenure when I start at the University of Maryland's @SmithSchool ! I feel grateful and lucky. Channeling my inner @garjoh_canuck dry run for when I give this a try with my

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

3 years

I've never seen such a detailed, thoughtful review and analysis of CBCV as this report from @mjmauboussin , covering TAM/adoption, retention (and heterogeneity), period-by-period vs customer-by-customer, the C3, CAC trends, value creation, incrementally, ... amazing piece of work.

Michael Mauboussin

@mjmauboussin

3 years

Our latest, The Economics of Customer Businesses, is out. It is based on the principles of customer-based corporate valuation (CBCV). I benefitted from lots of conversations with @d_mccar and @trengriffin , as well as the work of @faderp and @rgmarkey .

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

5 years

$Uber disclosed some interesting data in their S-1, but notably absent were *any* measures of retention for drivers or riders. At the very least, give us some acquisition data, or ideally, a cohorted rides/revenues chart like $LYFT did! Why did they decide not to disclose?

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

1 year

The @generalcatalyst Customer Value platform is so interesting -- fund CAC upfront for a given cohort, get a % of revenue from it until target IRR is reached, bear risk of loss if it doesn't (but get access to all relevant data to minimize that risk).

Lemonade Turns to Synthetic Agents to Finance Growth

Lemonade Turns to Synthetic Agents to Finance Growth: Powered by General Catalyst, program seeks to close cash-flow gap, unlock cash-friendly scaling

www.businesswire.com

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

3 years

Totally underwater but took a look... lots of great customer data. Strong monetization over time. Tough margins. High CAC ($90-110)? Oof. LTV calculation! But assumes 20 purchases per customer (presumably undiscounted) - ??. FY 19 profit LTV/CAC is not good. H1 20 better?

Lauren Thomas

@laurenthomas

3 years

🚨 Rent the Runway files for its IPO, revealing losses mounted during the pandemic, but subscribers are rebounding now Ticker symbol on this one going to be: $RENT

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

5 years

I am sure this piece is well-intentioned, but it hurts the credibility of LTV-to-CAC. -It's actually trying to compute post-acquisition value, not LTV -It's NPVing revenues, not profits -E(lifetime) != 1/churn See my CLV notes:

How to Calculate the LTV:CAC Ratio for Your SaaS Business

Is your customer worth more than what it costs to sell to them?

medium.com

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

2 years

Won the 5K and got a new PB at 18:42 but the real winner was the kid next to me. 2 seconds behind me and just 13 years old!!! All that slow Z1 running seems to be paying off

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

3 years

Still in the early innings of the CLV revolution...

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

3 years

[1/4] For those interested in customer acquisition costs and valuation, this note is for you! The main lessons from this note: --CAC improvement is non-linear in its impact on acquisitions. (Remember, you're making the denominator smaller)

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

4 years

Really enjoyed this sequence of short videos from @rabois , especially regarding hiring people that may have "warts," focusing on A+ problems, and our inability to properly value our own time. Fittingly, the videos are very dense :)

How to Build an Iconic Company - Keith Rabois

Keith Rabois on How to Build an Iconic Company. https://twitter.com/rabois Learn more at https://nugget.fm/rabois

www.youtube.com

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

2 years

I genuinely mean no disrespect, but this is emblematic of many of our issues in marketing. Lack of a basic understanding of finance (and accounting). They have beaten these issues to death and we have no idea.

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

2 years

This will look crazy, but after mulling it over for a while, this is how I would define CAC.

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

2 years

Sometimes you get lucky… and here’s to #CBCV !!

AMA

@AMA_Marketing

2 years

Congrats to Daniel McCarthy, Assistant Professor of Marketing at @EmoryGoizueta , for being named the 2022 Lavidge Award Winner! This award distinguishes leaders in marketing research and recognizes their significant advancement in the field. Learn more ⤵

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

2 years

Been looking for CLV-related resources for my class this coming semester and came across this by @bussgang : Rare that I find something where I agree with every word that is said, but those who follow my stuff will see this was one of those rare times.

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

5 years

We put together a followup analysis on @lyft to go from unit economics to overall fair valuation for the stock. Our main conclusion is that a $20-25B valuation would leave it severely overvalued. Our fair valuations fall in the $5-7B range. Highlights:

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

2 months

I'm loving the content coming out from the folks at @generalcatalyst . A few thoughts on their latest: 1/ I really like how the piece is framed in terms of businesses having two parts of the business, the CAC machine and everything else. The analogy to the typical

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

4 years

Latest sign that #CBCV is coming of age -- the latest edition of the seminal McKinsey Valuation book features customer-based revenue forecasting, and my paper with @faderp and Bruce Hardie is the only one cited as a deep dive reference.

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

3 years

[1/7]We're almost done with a deep dive into Warby Parker - unit economics and overall valuation. Step one is always to collect all available data. To WP's credit, they disclose a lot. But as we dug in, there were notable issues. Note here (more below):

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

6 years

Great deck analyzing virtues of @Costco . Thriving in "retail apocalypse," opening stores, not closing them down. 2nd largest retailer behind Walmart. How? Membership... forgoing merchandise profit to generate steady, long-term membership-driven profits.

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

5 years

As a teaser of the unique content I'll be covering in the class, this is the current iteration of one of the lectures, about the "taxonomy of CLV". This is hopefully a first step towards common standards for this and related terms. [3/4]

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

3 years

[1/3]This article about CLV / unit economics has been making the rounds: Great article, but one thing really stood out to me -- one of the questions at the end (see image). Why is there no MBA course on this stuff?? It's a real gap in the MBA curriculum.

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

2 years

We did a new deep dive into $W and just don't see any value in the equity. Fair value of $0. Highlights: 1: CAC has gotten a lot worse -- more than doubled vs 2018. $104 assuming 7% of repeat spend = ads for repeat orders. $186 front-loaded. Link:

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

4 years

I could spend hours talking about just this one chart. But at the least, I got to spend about 10 minutes on it in my undergrad and MBA classes yesterday...

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

4 years

[1/2] I can't even express how happy it makes me that the C3 (e.g., cohorted revenues) is now becoming a near-obligatory component of S-1's for companies with end-customer visibility. The latest is from @Affirm .

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

2 years

Alright, finally read the @jdroege thread. While there are some points I agree with, there is a lot that I don't. A few quick hits...

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

2 years

Strategic disclosure: ~Q3 '17, $W regularly disclosed a CAC calculation, = ad spend / gross adds. The goalpost then changed - CAC is lower because 7% of repeat revenue is ad spend! Now they disclose neither. Looking at CAC trends, very clear why.

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

2 years

1/8 All costs can be attributed as being driven by revenue/orders (variable), customer acquisition (CAC), or uncorrelated (fixed), contemporaneously or with a lag. [1] Some costs are purely variable -- those should always ding the contribution margin (direct labor/materials).

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

2 years

Big shout out to my PhD student Kyeongbin Kim, who rocked it in her presentation at the Marketing Strategy Meets Wall Street conference, "Deep Learning Methods for Customer Base Analysis: Evidence from 1,000 Companies". Super excited about this project and hope to have WP soon.

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

25 days

Striking chart from a @ThetaCLV collaboration with @BainandCompany (). Customer activity retention by cohort is a valuable thing to track -- and benchmark -- over time. Look at how $DASH's activity retention used to be the same as $GRUB, worse than

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

2 years

1/7 Scary churn figures from $PTON this Q. After vacillating .5%-.9%, it spiked to 1.41%. Yes, Canada, But c'mon. A lot of people were canceling because of the subscription price increase.

Lauren Thomas

@laurenthomas

2 years

BREAKING: Losses widen and sales tumble at Peloton in its fiscal fourth quarter. Total member count dropped slightly, as churn rates ticked higher & above 1%. The company isn't offering up guidance for the fiscal year 2023. Full breakdown here: $pton

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

2 years

1/11🚨 "New" paper alert! 🚨 New version of paper with Kyeongbin Kim studying externalities of e-scooters! Main Qs: when a city introduces a program, what happens to restaurant spending? Overall spending? And any differences by city/company? Link:

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

3 years

1/9🚨 New paper alert! 🚨 We released the revised version of our paper on COVID's impact on restaurant delivery. Different in all ways - methods and positioning. This thread is about the methods for you DiD and CRM people! #EconTwitter #MarketingTwitter

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

3 years

1/7 Our analysis of $WRBY's unit economics is live! Main takeaways...

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

4 years

$WORK's C3 was really quite impressive. Converting it to cohorted ARR without stacking (RHS), v little evidence of slowdown in growth after cohort is formed -- you'd expect to see sharp growth in, say, the 2015 cohort's ARR during 2015 because of new customer acquisition. 1/3

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

5 years

1/This interview with @rgmarkey might be one of the best I've been a part of. It's amazing how much a host can bring the best out of you (and worst, as I've experienced as well recently). Some topics covered: -CBCV vs customer equity ...

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

1 year

Super excited to announce that my CLV course will now be available, synchronously online on an a la carte basis via @emoryexeced @EmoryGoizueta . If you've been interested in this stuff, I'd love to have you. More info (+ registration) at the link below.

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

3 years

CLV PSA: Because CLV discounts at WACC, when we look at CLV/CAC / marketing ROI, the reference point for what is good should have nothing to do with WACC. If it does, you're probably implicitly "double dinging" the customer (implicitly applying that discount rate twice).

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

4 years

My paper with @faderp laying out the #CBCV framework for subscription firms breaks into the top 150 most downloaded papers of all time across all ~925K papers on @SSRN : The one that got all this CBCV started for me *sniff*...

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

5 years

I couldn't be more excited to launch my new course here at @EmoryGoizueta next semester, which will be all about measuring and managing the customer-based drivers of firm valuation -- acquisition, retention, ordering, spend, and margin... [1/4]

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

1 year

1/Got the chance to take a peek at the $CART S1. Very impressive from a #CBCV perspective. A few things that stood out out: A] Cohort revenue data implies customers are superannuities: great, strong cohort data. *Strong* cohort-level performance.

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

4 years

[1/4] Kudos to $DASH for quickly refiling their S/1 to address the data error issue I was referring to here: Big difference in the revised chart in Q3 2020. In Q3 '20, new customer GOV was down not up. Now the figures make sense.

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

5 years

Up until recently, I've ordered (and re-ordered, and re-re-ordered) Huggies baby wipes w/ free Prime shipping. Seems like I wasn't the only one. No more Prime shipping now... and what is sponsored up at the top? #AMZN baby wipes. W/ free same-day shipping. #competingwithsuppliers

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

6 months

This is far from a complete list, but here are some of the most popular burning questions that can be answered by a well-executed customer analysis as part of the diligence process for investors: 1. How healthy are the unit economics of this business overall -- the company may

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

3 years

1/7 Striking update from $PTON Interactive this morning. A few quick comments: --I said it before and I'll say it again (), the weakness at Peloton is because of very weak customer adoption. We would have expected this.

Peloton posts loss, slashes its full-year revenue outlook as founder steps down from CEO post

Peloton on Tuesday slashed its financial outlook for the full year as the company announced CEO John Foley will be stepping down.

www.cnbc.com

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

4 years

[1/3] Great to see a C3 in the $POSH S1. A few things pop out. +ivs: -Consistent customer acquisition growth (i.e., top slice of each bar). -Nice within-cohort revenue stability across years. Implies improving variable profitability over time.

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

5 years

Excited to share what @faderp and I are doing w/ @rgmarkey to take #CBCV a step forward-a collection of articles for Jan's @HarvardBiz . Our article: Rob's article: Jack Brennan interview: Highlights: [1/6]

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

3 years

Nice article by @retailgeek , taking the long view in light of the recent S-1 drops by $BIRD and $WRBY. I think a lot of people are wondering exactly what the unit economics are right now at both companies. We’ll have more soon on $WRBY…

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

4 years

@bumble disclosed basically zilch, zero, nada about the underlying health of their customers. Unless I missed something, they literally only disclosed paying customers and nothing else. To be frank, given disclosure norms these days, kind of pathetic.

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

5 years

Our valuation analysis of @SlackHQ is up! Key highlights: 1/ Our base case valuation is $22-27B with upside potential 2/ We don't have guidance on pricing yet, but this is well north of the $17B Slack was valued at in recent private market transactions.

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

4 years

[1/2] A number of people had asked about a recording of my Practice Prize presentation. It is here: Highlights: --Articulation of what all this means for marketing --Trading strategy formed on the basis of all public but previously unpublished analyses

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

1 year

So excited to share that my paper with Kyeongbin Kim on the economic impact of e-scooters (link below) is now forthcoming at JMR @ama_journals . I think the results continue to be as relevant as ever -- with all the talk of recession and layoffs, taking a more lenient stance on

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

5 years

@trengriffin (1) 1/churn is a very bad estimate of E(lifetime): . (2) LTV should NPV variable profits. Gross profit > variable profit. (3) No discount rate, which what $PTON got raked over the coals for. For more (incl. PTON discussion):

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

4 years

1/ Couldn't be more excited to share that my paper with Elliot Oblander (rising star PhD student at Columbia) proposing a large-scale data fusion method we applied to a subscription CBCV setting was just accepted at @MarketngScience !

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

6 years

At ~12.6K, my paper with @faderp and Bruce Hardie on valuing subscription businesses using their public customer data is now in the top 250 most downloaded papers of all time, across the >800K papers on SSRN across all disciplines. Read all about it here:

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

3 years

Going back to @Wharton for the first time in… golly can’t even remember. So excited.

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

1 year

Great to be out there for my first @EmoryGoizueta Dooley Dash 5K, and as luck would have it, I somehow happened to win! New PB of 18:19 despite a lot of hills. A lot of improvement over the past year, all due to my coach forcing me to train slow. Training slow works!

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

5 months

Interesting that $NFLX decided this quarter to stop disclosing total subscribers. The reason, they state, is that it is becoming less relevant, with engagement being more relevant. A few thoughts: 1/ The first is that total subscribers remains one of their most important

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

4 years

For those who weren't able to tune into the webinar about #CBCV and how it ties into value management, with @rgmarkey , @faderp and I, there is a recording! Couldn't be happier with turnout/engagement. It's a revolution! Link here:

Break the Short-Term Earnings Trap: How to Invest in Customer Value

The art and science of managing customer value for long-term success.

www.bain.com

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

5 years

(0) Alt data – and not just geolocation data, but also credit card panel data – has been getting some flak from some very smart buyside investors. The argument: it’s table stakes, totally priced into the market, not worth the cost. Some respectful contrarian thoughts…

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

4 years

Sometimes you get lucky! Grateful to be on this list with so many other great folks and friends.

Garrett Johnson

@garjoh_canuck

4 years

Honored to be named a @MktgScience 2021 Young Scholar alongside a great cohort of global scholars! #MarketingAcad

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

3 years

1/6 Our company valuation analysis for $WRBY is now live! Main conclusion: while their fundamentals are strong, we have a difficult time justifying the valuation from their last funding round, $3B. We come close - our fair valuation estimate is $2.5B.

Warby Parker - strong fundamentals, but tough to justify a high valuation | Theta

We will now move from analyzing unit economics to estimating the overall valuation of the company before it goes public. Learn more.

www.thetaequity.com

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

11 months

For those who missed it, the discussion with @mjmauboussin was recorded! In addition to recapping the fundamentals of topics such as expectations investing, we covered a lot of truly new ground -- the intersection of EI with CBCV, how the expectations infrastructure plays into

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

2 years

This Freshly article really struck a chord. Meal kit company, bought by @Nestle in Nov 2020 for $950M, now shutting down. Excuses peppered throughout the article. COVID unwind. Meal kits all having issues. General issue with the DTC model. Really?

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

1 year

TFW the print edition containing your paper arrives, you open the front cover, and there it is ❤️ Really helps to enjoy the small wins that come every once in a while

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

2 years

Cool to see CLV focus in @Clear 's filings: -~90-95% annual retention in '21-22 -- wow! But they are adding winbacks/renewals. That won't last. Normalized more like 85%? -They say 16x LTV to CAC at IPO. Is it *really* that good?

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

8 months

Tenure materials submitted.

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Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

4 years

"Intangible assets accounted for more than 80% of the total $25 trillion in assets of S&P 500 companies as of 2018... The value of IP in the U.S. is about $6.6 trillion, according to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce." Need to be able to value intangibles!

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