New York City's first mass-timber condo project in Park Slope: Timber House, 670 Union St.
The 14-unit building, developed by Brooklyn Home Company, looks to be sold-out after launching in June with pricing in the ~$1,600 psf range
Maybe my favorite so far: 329 Vanderbilt Ave
Located in prime Clinton Hill, this is a recently renovated 19th-century carriage house totaling ~ 3,000 square feet
A truly one of a kind property
I'm pretty jaded by rent-stabilized sales comps at this point, but the latest transaction is wild:
140 Clarkson Ave, a 59-unit in Flatbush, sells for $5.1 million, ~$70 psf & ~$90k per door
Previous owner bought it for $14.4 million in 2018
111 Charles St, a 19-unit boutique rental project in the West Village developed by Aurora & William Gottlieb, planned initially as a condo building, is fully leased
Median Rents:
1/1: $7,300
2/2: $9,850
2/2.5: $14,600
3/3: $20,750
4/3.5: $43,000
Wildflower sells two Amazon warehouses totaling 211,000 sf to CBRE for $230 million after buying them for only $23.5 million in 2019
A decent ~10x return in under three years
Downtown Brooklyn is a great example of what happens when dense zoning is paired with accretive tax benefits
Four massive projects are under development within just a couple blocks of each other
The result is ~2,600 apartments with 800 affordable units across 3 million+ sf
The best example is when Emily Ratajkowski & her then-movie producer boyfriend Sebastian Bear-McClard skipped $160K of rent across two years for a loft unit on Bleecker Street in NoHo
...And then were paid to leave the building
Right around when Two Trees took the first step to transform Dumbo by purchasing a 2 million sf portfolio for $6 psf
Amazing what a creative vision & a long timeline can result in
About the most fun way to spend your limitless fortune:
Slack co-founder Stewart Butterfield & Away co-founder Jen Rubio go on a $140 million buying spree of luxury homes
Includes townhouses in West Village & Tribeca, a ranch in New Mexico & houses in Aspen & Southampton
Solow’s in the final stages of selling 9 W 57th to Shvo for an expected record price. The last asset in the iconic portfolio after agreeing to sell its multifamily holdings for $1.8B
Epic run by the Solow family capped off with a portfolio sale potentially totaling $4B+
Verdevelopment's first NYC condo project: Lexè Passive House at 669 St Mark's Ave, Crown Heights
Dig the original approach of creating a side courtyard on a boutique condo project, allowing for a dignified entryway & far more light & air than usual
It's already 50% sold out
The amount of construction going on within just a few blocks of my apartment is something else:
589 Fulton - Witkoff/Apollo: 52-stories, 592 units
15 Hanover - Lonicera: 34-stories, 314 units
100 Flatbush - Alloy: 44-stories, 441 units
625
United American Land's 277 Canal Street project plans to kick off the Soho/Noho rezoning, released its first renderings
The renovation will add ten stories to the existing three-story building, totaling 100 rentals & a retail component
Big test for the controversial upzoning
New York City welcomed its latest trophy asset along Park Ave yesterday - 425 Park Ave
The building is anchored by Citadel who paid over $300/sf in '16 & opened at 85% occupancy
And there it is:
788 Riverside Drive sells for $10.2 million, $126 psf
Despite being a 62-unit 80,000 sf elevator building facing the Hudson River, sadly, it's actually a decent price for the seller, all things considered
The conundrum facing NYC's stabilized market:
Coveted buildings like 788 RIverside sell for ~$130 psf, below land value, but also will probably be breakeven on a cashflow basis
Few investors are interested in a binary legislative bet with brain damage
Greenpoint is probably the biggest winner across NYC from the shift to remote work:
- The Huron is raising prices to meet demand, $2,100 psf sell-outs
- 60+ F&B locations have opened in the past 2 years
- Last year, developers filed 230 condo plans, more than any other
Ever wonder what's going on with the massive stretch of vacant land between E 35th - E 41st right off the FDR?
The Solow family has owned the 9-acre stretch since '00 & has left it completely vacant
Now they have an ambitious plan after almost three decades: NYC's first casino
In 1993, Warren Buffett, Larry Silverstein, & Fred Rose purchased 'University Walk' through a foreclosure auction for $20.2 million, a 74k sf Greenwich Village retail property steps away from NYU
The redevelopment plan consisted of modernizing the facade to create a simplistic
Zero Irving (Union Sq) is nearing 100% occupancy despite completing construction only earlier this year
Tenants include Sequoia & Alpine Investors, with rents ranging from $100-$175/sf
Well-located, new construction office with manageable floorplates is getting absorbed quickly
Pincus reports Carlyle has purchased 136 buildings in Brooklyn for ~$750 million over the past 24 months
Averaging more than one closing a week at an average of ~$6 million per deal for two years is mind-blowing velocity at the sub-institutional level
An encapsulation of the current commoditized rent-stabilized sales market: 4300 Broadway, Washington Heights
2016: Acquired for $21.6 million
2019: Signature provided a $16 million loan
2023: Sold for $12 million
Hard to articulate the impact Carlyle has had on middle-market multifamily investment landscape across BK
The map illustrates many of their acquisitions dating back to 10/21, equaling 77 bldgs for ~$300M (& missing many deals)
They've acquired 11 bldgs for $40M this month alone
53 Prospect Park West: Sells for $13.5 million, setting a record price for a townhouse in Park Slope
Fun Facts
- Sold for $2,400/sf despite needing a gut-renovation
- Overlooks Prospect Park
- Largest private garden in Brooklyn at 9,800 sf
- Corner 100' x 100' lot with 33,000 sf
The top contenders for a New York City casino license:
Related/Wynn - Hudson Yards
SL Green/Caesars - Times Square
Point72/Sands - Flushing
Soloviev Group - Midtown East
Thor/Saratoga Casino Holdings - Coney Island
Times Square is the obvious answer
The conundrum facing NYC's stabilized market:
Coveted buildings like 788 RIverside sell for ~$130 psf, below land value, but also will probably be breakeven on a cashflow basis
Few investors are interested in a binary legislative bet with brain damage
Maybe my favorite so far: 329 Vanderbilt Ave
Located in prime Clinton Hill, this is a recently renovated 19th-century carriage house totaling ~ 3,000 square feet
A truly one of a kind property
One Boerum Place, planned initially as a condominium project, now arguably Brooklyn's most luxurious rental building, is achieving massive rents across the board:
1/1: ~$5,000
2/2: ~$7,250
3/2: ~$10,000
4/3: ~$15,500
4/4.5: ~$30,000
VICI Properties ($VICI) pays $343 million for the leasehold interest in Chelsea Piers through a sale-leaseback transaction - roughly $440 psf
The initial triple-net term is 32 years with a 10-year extension option
Purchased in 2018 for $2.95 million, it's now on the market for $7.5 million
The newly added principal suite is unlike anything I've encountered before, really digging the window design
My favorite in-flight assemblage: 50-64 Third Ave, East Village
Since 2018, Kinsmen has been putting together an entire city block on Third Ave, between 10th/11th St
They've acquired six buildings for ~$67 million, or $670 per zfa
They filed to demolish the buildings last week
Yesterday marks the 20th anniversary of Harry Macklowe acquiring The GM Building
This monumental deal put him on the map as one of the most prominent players in New York City commercial real estate
Some fun facts:
360 Bowery, former location of B Bar (RIP), tops out on its way to delivering a 22-story office building spanning 112,000 SF
Small floor plates ranging from 4,000 to 10,000 SF should help the lease-up. Curious to see how it goes for an otherwise very prime residential corridor
Have to wonder when the other shoe drops for 25 Kent Ave. Coming up on its four-year anniversary, the building still sits 65% vacant
Rubenstein is apparently offering 50% discounts with flexible terms: $30 psf for three-year leases. Rents can increase depending on employee usage
Back in 2012, I joined my father, a union electrician, on a weekend side job. The only information given ahead of time was an address for a townhouse on Morton Street in the West Village
Having zero context, we approached the stunning brownstone, where there was a used condom
Looking more & more likely there will be a singular casino awarded to Manhattan, but to who/where?
Related is angling for Hudson Yards while SL Green/Vornado are targeting Times Square
This battle will inevitably lead to a legendary real estate book - let the games begin
Have to wonder when the other shoe drops for 25 Kent Ave. Coming up on its four-year anniversary, the building still sits 65% vacant
Rubenstein is apparently offering 50% discounts with flexible terms: $30 psf for three-year leases. Rents can increase depending on employee usage
Just moved offices across the street from Disney's new 1.2 million square foot, full city block Manhattan HQ
Haven't been following this project at all, but man, the green terracotta façade is badass
Workers have removed the scaffolding & sidewalk obstructions at 180 2nd Ave. in the East Village, where this mixed-used bldg has been getting a makeover/extension for nearly 7 years. The bike lane is clear for the 1st time since late 2017. Also: the bldg has a $12.5 million ask.
Two Trees has publicly launched Williamsburg's first waterfront condo project in 15 years: 1 Domino Square
Six units have come to market, averaging $2,000 psf, with the upper stack blending to $2,250 psf, comparable to OlympiaDumbo
A big step in Northern BK's growth story
A fun reminder the Zeckendorf's once paid a tenant $17 million to vacate their 350 sf studio apartment
The buyout allowed the brothers to develop arguably the most successful NYC condo project ever at 15 Central Park West
Tomorrow’s guest, Dov Hertz, is considered by many to be the greatest land assembler in New York City history.
He’s negotiated 100’s of deals that have turned into some of the most significant developments in the NYC skyline.
In this clip, Dov tells us the most important thing
Not a fan of underwhelming basement gyms in multifamily buildings
Better off monetizing the space as storage or actually investing the right amount to make it a true amenity
These unimaginative tweeners gyms give off a very cheap feel, detracting from the overall value
470 Broadway / Thor:
2007: Acquired for $15.5mm
2012: Receives a $20.5mm CMBS loan
2022: Gives keys back via deed-in-lieu to LNR
2023: Buys property back for $8.1mm
Probably not the last time we're going to see something like this
Signature Bank's commercial real estate loans are 46% rent-stabilized (lighter green dots) & just 11% office
The only lender with more rent regulation exposure - 40% greater - is New York Community Bank
Values of those buildings have decreased between 20-65% since early 2019
Billy, this is a rent-stabilized building. The current asking price is far below the residual land value, and its design aesthetic & unit sizes could never be replicated today
Its only defect is it will negatively cash flow for the foreseeable future
Signature Bank was the top New York City commercial real estate lender in terms of total loan volume & third in dollar volume since 2020
As if the lending environment wasn't already difficult enough...
Was chatting with a coworker who is starting a new job in NYC in a few weeks. Told me their rent (Manhattan) for 800 sqft studio is gonna be $4,100.
God bless you NYC folks.
Interesting interview w the head a very active NYC debt fund-
"I have not seen any developer who started a project after '16 doing well. Very few, if any, are making any money. The winners who are breaking even are getting back 50-75 cents on the dollar"
North Park has a fun deal history:
2014: Gaw Capital pays $170 million, $580 psf
2018: Blackstone pays $245 million, $830 psf
2023: Gaw Capital pays $82 million, $280 psf
Blackstone is selling a building in San Francisco for $82 million
They bought the property for $245 million just 5 years ago in 2018!
Buying SF real estate within the next year or two just might be the best opportunity within any asset class
Who here is going to take
Two of the largest NYC contrarian office investors - Namdar & Empire Capital - are set to give the keys back on 345 Seventh Ave after only three years of ownership
An entry basis of ~$500 psf & $78 million in floating-rate debt was an uphill battle
The brownstone market in prime Brooklyn continues to defy logic
The latest example is 547 3rd St, going under contract in less than two weeks & trading for over $1,000 psf while still needing significant capex investment
Looking at moving to an apartment in June (currently live with a buddy at a house).
Average 1 bed 1 bath rent for the 4 complex’s I want to live at is around $1,700/ month.
Yeeeesssh
Brooklyn Home Company converted an 8-family into a SFH right off Prospect Park in Park Slope & sold it for $10.875 million
One of the highest prices ever achieved for a single-family home in Brooklyn
182-188 Duffield St in Downtown Brooklyn sells for $10 million or $100 per buildable sf
Sitting on a 100' x 100' lot, this traded for roughly a 60%+ discount to market
Big bets are being made on this exact premise in New York City right now
Whether it’s vacant 175 Water St for $400 psf or negatively levered fully-stabilized, elevator buildings for $200 psf, there will be fortunes made & lost in the next half decade
West Wharf, Brooklyn's latest premier waterfront multifamily property, launches its lease-up
The initial unit is a 1BR/1BA asking $6,000, or $103 psf
If they're able to achieve this rent level at scale, I believe this would set a new high-water mark for the borough
One High Line, formerly known as The XI:
HFZ lost it thru foreclosure to Witkoff after buying it for $870 million - $1,100 psf - one of the priciest land deals ever
Sales have commenced: Out of ~236 units, 10 are closed & 35 are on-market averaging $3,700 & $3,400 psf
I was pitched a value-add, class C Garment District office building in Manhattan & the broker accidentally said, "this is the perfect time to catch a falling knife"
By far the best Freudian slip in my career
Maybe my favorite so far: 329 Vanderbilt Ave
Located in prime Clinton Hill, this is a recently renovated 19th-century carriage house totaling ~ 3,000 square feet
A truly one of a kind property
Prime Park Slope's typical landmarked narrow lot produces charming curb appeal but limits end-product differentiation
123 Sixth Ave circumvented this by combining two 20' x 45' buildings, allowing special floor-through units
The four-unit boutique condo site is 100% sold only a
One South First in Williamsburg is likely to become the gold standard for rental buildings in Brooklyn
According to JLL, units are renting at $105 psf with an average unit size exceeding 750 sf
Tough update for the legend at 1 Wall Street:
- Inventory loan brings cost to ~$2.6 bn, suggesting massive potential losses
- 479/566 units remain unsold, with many having less desirable layouts
- Compass expected to depart project soon
- 125 Greenwich's supply incoming
The NYC dispensary craze is coming to a close...
It looks like ~3,000 illegal stores will be left vacant by tenants who were happily paying upwards of 50% above market
In NYC, stabilized buildings are by far the most interesting multifamily storyline in '23
Prior to '19, they were often bought at ~4% caps w lofty buyout assumptions
They're currently selling for 6%+ caps w a portion of buyouts executed, LL97 fears & out of control opex bills
The compounding benefits of a tax-protected status in New York City:
Two identical 4-story, 30' x 80' adjacent buildings in Brooklyn each totaling ~8,000 sf
Building A, 8 units: $20,000 tax bill
Building B, 11 units: $100,000 tax bill
All the non-stop storylines around Aaron Rodgers joining the New York Jets reminds me how insanely cool it would’ve been to experience an NFL game on the island of Manhattan
RIP West Side Stadium
Slate Property Group & Avenue Realty Capital's rare 7-story boutique condo conversion project at 118 W 13th St, between 6th/7th Ave, in The Village begins construction
Purchased for $22.85 million - $670 psf - in 2021, the 34,000 sf pre-war building is delivering 8 units
JUST IN: WeWork said there’s “substantial doubt” about its ability to continue operating, citing sustained losses and canceled memberships to its office spaces
Probably the best Brooklyn multifamily basis play I've seen recently —
75 Pierrepoint St, a 37-unit building in prime Brooklyn Heights, sells for $6.8 million, $260/sf
This land trades for around $500/sf
432 Park's Waterfall Structure:
"Macklowe was entitled to 20% of the profits once CIM got its initial investment back plus a 15% return. After CIM hit a 20% return, Macklowe’s compensation would jump to 50% of the profits"