We are 15 days away from the first Fed rate cut of this cycle.
Using that same time frame, I overlayed the following past rate cut cycles: 1981, 1990, 2000, and 2007.
These four cutting cycles matched the same data that we're seeing currently (unemployment rate curving up,
Four days until the
#FOMC
meeting, where Powell will likely cut by .25 (odds are currently 50% for .25 and 50% for .50).
The similarities between 2007 and 2024 are wild!
Charts in comments:
Fed's First Rate Cut:
Sept 18, 2007
Sept 18, 2024 (high probability)
Unemployment
@nbaontop_
@NBAMemes
No he wonโt. The dudes rich because heโs a basketball player and has financial advisors. Iโm not taking investment advice from this guy ๐
Jan 3, 2001: .5%
Sept 18, 2007: .5%
March 3, 2020: .5%
Sept 18, 2024: .5%
These are the last 3 times the FED has initiated its cutting cycle with .5%.
$SPX
#NASDAQ
#FOMC
#Recession
#Economy
$QQQ
2007
- Fed rates were 5.25% at the timing of the first-rate cut
- Between Sept 18, 2007, and April 30, 2008, the Fed cut rates 7 times taking the rate down to 2%.
2024
- Fed rates are 5.25-5.5%
- Rate cuts should begin on September 18th. Current probabilities show 9 potential
Historical Pumps and Dumps after Rate Cuts.
The data and charts below represent the price action of the $SPX after Fed cuts in markets where unemployment is on an uptrend (top right chart), the US Economic Leading Indicator is on a downtrend (bottom left chart), the 10y2y is
In 13 days, the Fed will likely make its first cut of this cycle.
I've overlayed past rate cut years on top of the current
#NASDAQ
chart: 1990, 2001, 2007, and 2020.
As shown on the bottom two charts, these four cutting cycles matched the economic data that we're seeing
The 10y2y Yield is back to the 0 line.
The Inverted Yield Curve is one of the most accurate recession indicators.
The longest inversion prior to 2022: 16 months
The current inversion: 24 months
๐ฅ = Recession
๐ฉ = Fed Rate Cuts
๐ฆ = 0% line
#recession
#Economy
@SawyerMerritt
That M3 is gorgeous and sounds amazing. The best part is theyโre exciting to see on the street. Model 3s are like seeing a civic now. Not being a hater, but theyโre around every corner.
Bitcoin 2W RSI.
Each time the RSI has reached this level and fallen below the 70 RSI line, it has been followed by a 75-93% correction.
Will this time be different?
#Bitcoin
$BTC
#Crypto
@_B___S
Is that where penguins naturally live? Imagine as a human being dropped off on a random beach with no other living beings like you. Thatโs terrifying lol
1+ million impressions. 3.7k Likes. 2.5K Bookmarks. Thank you all! This deserves a follow-up to answer many of the valid discussion points.
The chart was created to show the similarities in 2007 vs 2024. What happens after the Fed cuts in September is anyone guess. Would it be
@EndWokeness
Universities should remove names, genders and photos from applications. Go strictly off who โdeservesโ it the most based on academics and philanthropic events during teen years.
2007 vs 2024 Fed Unemployment Rate Projections.
2007:
First rate cut: Sept 18, 2007
Unemployment rate at the time of cut: 4.7%
Fed Projections for the next 3 years:
2007: 4.7-4.8%
2008: 4.6-5%
2009: 4.6-5%
2010: 4.6-5%
Actual Peaks:
2007: 5%
2008: 7.3%
2009: 10%
2010: 9.9%
@CollinRugg
Normal human interaction:
โHey maโam, the stewardess said you found my charger. Could I get that back please?โ
โYa no problemโ
Recording stuff like this to post on social media is a disease. Before iPhones existed, Iโm pretty sure thatโs how the interaction would have gone.
@brilewerke
Many NBA finals games have been into the 30 million range. Many NCAA menโs final fours and finals have had over 20 million viewers.
A proper title would have said โHighest Basketball audience for any womanโs basketball game on record.โ.
@crazyclipsonly
People saying the bike was going to fast, need to rewatch. The beginning of the video shows the other cars right next to him at the same speed.
@XxKeaton662
@nbaontop_
@NBAMemes
Yes. And even if not...you have two options:
1) Dinner with Lebron and leave with the same amount of money you went in with. He's not going to say "go buy the next NVDA stock".
2) No Dinner. Spent $10,000 on courtside seats at Lakers so you can see him up close. Go home rich.
Today I turn 33. Iโve got a beautiful wife, 3 kids (my boy is a fellow
@DegenToonz
), just bought a new houseโฆthe only thing missing is buying ops for $ETH at sub $1,400. Life is good!
@YoPastorBrett
@Brett_McMurphy
@AP_Top25
They beat unranked Boston college by 2, when BC had 18 flags, and only beat unranked Clemson because Clemson had a backup kicker. They should be lower.
Today's downward price action is likely due to the fear of a .5 cut, which CME has at a 63% probability.
If Powell announces a .25 cut, do you think the market could see a short relief rally?
This would not be out of the norm.
In 2001 and 2007, the market had a pump for a
2007 vs 2024 Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims bottomed in 2006:
742 days later, claims had risen 29%.
Initial Jobless Claims bottomed in 2022:
742 days later, claims have risen 38%.
Initial Jobless Claims came in much higher than expected today, at 258k claims vs 230k
@BBGreatMoments
As a dad of two daughters, she absolutely crushed it. Her dad should be proud.
As a person with a sense of humor, these comments didnโt miss ๐คฃ
As an honest person, 99% of the dudes in this comment section couldnโt throw 75mph
@Geiger_Capital
For those bringing up 1995, 1998, and 2019, check this out.
In all 3 of those examples, unemployment was trending down. 2019 was at a 50-year low.
Every other time when unemployment was trending up and we saw rate cuts, it led to a sell off in equities and a continued climb
@Mister_Ch0c
1) The week just started lol.
2) There have been many 4 weekly red candles in bulls. Two of which happened immediately following the halving past two halvings.
US Economic Health Check.
Top Left: US Leading Economic Indicator. (Approaching the COVID lows).
Top Right: Consumer Debt vs Personal Savings.
Bottom Left: US Existing Home Sales: (Approaching the 2008 lows.)
Bottom Right: Unemployment Rate vs Recessions.
This is why the
@BleacherReport
So many bitter men. Itโs not hard to congratulate her. Sure pistol Pete had no 3 point line. But what about EVERY other ncaa player since the 60s? Well done Caitlin.
I've received countless comments and requests to compare 2024 to 1995 and 1998. These are the years when the Fed cut rates and the stock market continued to rally.
Using the same economic charts as I did for 2007...let's dive in.
(Data to showcase 24-month trend prior)
Fed's
Four days until the
#FOMC
meeting, where Powell will likely cut by .25 (odds are currently 50% for .25 and 50% for .50).
The similarities between 2007 and 2024 are wild!
Charts in comments:
Fed's First Rate Cut:
Sept 18, 2007
Sept 18, 2024 (high probability)
Unemployment
In December 2008, the NBER declared that the recession started in December 2007, an entire year later.
Many people on X say, "Well, the GDP isn't negative. We can't be in a recession"
It can take 6-12 months for a recession to be confirmed. By the time its announced, it's
September is the worst month on average for stocks and crypto.
Bitcoin has seen 11 Septembers'. 8 have been red. 3 green.
September data:
Best: 6.04%
Median: -5.58%
Worst : -19.01%
#Bitcoin
#QQQ
#SPY
Consumer Credit Card Debt vs. Personal Savings.
Notice what happens when they begin to separate.
Consumer debt is 28% more than the peak of 2008, while personal savings is 8% less.
#recession
Just challenged the
@psychedelic_nft
family to a 50 retweet challenge and I would buy my second PA of the day. They did it in like 5 minutes. Bought thisโฆabove the floor!
#PAfollowPA
#nft
Do you have any thoughts on these teasers?
My guess:
- Dookie Dash = EVO1. We summon the head of the Mecha.
- EVO2 is the next game will summon the torso.
- EVO3 is the final mini-game will summon the full Mecha. If you have a Dog, you get both.
#BAYC
#MAYC
@BoredApeYC
A) Powell: "The economy is strong"
B) Biden: "I haven't talked to Powell since I've been president"
C) Trump: "The Economy is very bad shape"
D) Today, Market Watch shared "The Leading Index for U.S. Economy has fallen for a sixth straight month, signaling slower growth ahead."
Over the last few weeks, many of my posts have had over 1m impressions each, thousands of retweets, and, most importantly, many great questions and conversations.
I figured the right thing to do was to make a video and discuss my thoughts on this market, including rate cuts,
Who has the coolest PA? Post pics below, the one with the highest likes in 24h will get a new post dedicated to you. GO!
@psychedelic_nft
#pafollowpa
#nft