Black Mamba Research @blackmambashort Twitter profile

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Black Mamba Research

2 months

(1/x) Black Mamba is short Amphastar Pharmaceuticals $AMPH- we believe shares have ~50% downside based on competition in their glucagon product, competitive issues in epinephrine, and a patent expiration for Primatene MIST in early 2026 which allows private label copycats

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Black Mamba Research

@blackmambashort

2 months

(5/x) Boehringer discontinued their vial product and Fresenius couldn't make enough vials to keep up with demand, $AMPH's share in this channel rose rapidly, boosting glucagon sales from ~$55mm in 2022 to ~$114mm in 2023. With Fresenius back, $AMPH should cede share

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Black Mamba Research

@blackmambashort

2 months

(6/x) Viatris plans to launch a competitive glucagon product in 2024 and Lupin plans to launch one in their Fiscal 2026 (which starts April 1, 2025). Meitheal is also working on a product, potentially turning this effective duopoly into a five-player knife fight

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Black Mamba Research

@blackmambashort

2 months

(7/x) With Fresenius back in stock and new competition looming, we believe $AMPH will rapidly cede glucagon market share

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Black Mamba Research

@blackmambashort

2 months

(17/x) We are short shares of $AMPH. All content in this report represents the opinions of the author. This is not investment advice. Do your own work. Please see full disclaimer at the bottom of the full report linked above

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Black Mamba Research

@blackmambashort

2 months

(8/x) In epinephrine, $AMPH has benefited from multi-year production issues at Pfizer, which appear to have been resolved shortly before their plant was hit by a tornado last summer. Pfizer expects production to return to normal by Q1 '25

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Black Mamba Research

@blackmambashort

2 months

(4/x) Historically $AMPH derived ~all of its glucagon revenue from the retail market, as their kit-based product is designed as an emergency kit for hypoglycemic diabetics. The other use of glucagon (as an imaging diagnostic aid) was historically fulfilled by vial products

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Black Mamba Research

@blackmambashort

2 months

(12/x) Sellside has seemingly ignored this risk - modeling continued elevated "Other" products revenue:

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Black Mamba Research

@blackmambashort

2 months

Black Mamba has occasionally posted short reports on Seeking Alpha over the last ~8 years. See the following link for our reports published to date:

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Black Mamba Research

@blackmambashort

2 months

(2/x) Our analysis is based on abundant public transcripts, FDA freedom of information documents, Orange Book entries, FDA shortage records and competitor availability docs. Full report here

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Black Mamba Research

@blackmambashort

2 months

(14/x) $AMPH conveniently removed discussion of this patent expiry in their 2023 10K, after mentioning it in the 2022 10K (red text was removed, green text added)

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Black Mamba Research

@blackmambashort

2 months

(3/x) $AMPH's key glucagon product has been benefitting from supply issues at their main competitor Fresenius. Fresenius has returned to full availability as of February 2024

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