In previous
#Bitcoin
cycles there have been 2 primary trend lines and a 3rd parabolic one to the cycle top.
IMO we are on the 2nd and missing the parabolic one.
Notice how price dropped below the 2nd trend line several times the last 2 cycles... see notes...
#HODL
$BTC
#NFA
Here are the 2013 and 2017
#Bitcoin
cycles before their parabolic blow off top compared to the current cycle, right now...
I wonder what will happen this time? 🤔
This
#Bitcoin
chart is a deep dive into the repeating Fibonacci patterns that play out every cycle.
My
#BTC
Floor to Peak Trajectory Theory shows how the movement at the bottom has always directly correlated with the timing and height at the peak.
Is this time different? 👇
#Bitcoin
is still following the cyclical Fibonacci trading pattern & hanging around local support ($42k).
This cycle has been marked by a Wyckoff Distribution at the mid-cycle and Accumulation patterns which are dragging out this part of the cycle before the next leg. 1/ 👇
The
#Bitcoin
4.272 Fibonacci "Peak Target" is $279.8K.
In 2017 the 3.272 target was $17.5K & the peak $19.8K.
In 2013 the 2.272 target was $1,088 & the peak $1,242.
These targets stemming from the 2011 cycle have been among the most accurate top signals to date. 👀🚀
#Bitcoin
is like chill ya'll... we are only on the 2nd floor...
#HODL
& enjoy the ride... 🤙
Oh and
#BTC
Bear Market basements have never gone below the 2nd floor so.... I think
#WAGMI
Tag a premature bear and show them the way...🐻📈
Each major
#Bitcoin
reversal since Oct '20 has been inversely related to USDT Dominance hitting its resistance or support trend lines.
When it made multiple daily touches it signified a reversal on the horizon.
It's been touching resistance for nearly a week. 🔥
See Chart 👇
#Bitcoin
price has an inverse relationship with USDT Dominance. The last 2 times USDT.D fell under the Daily HMA and 200EMA with a bearish RSI, $BTC & many
#Alts
went on serious runs... It's making it's way down now.
#Bitcoin
is flashing warning indicators that we rarely see & I feel it's important to share.
TLDR - In my opinion, $BTC needs a bounce soon or there's the chance of a capitulation event ahead.
It might be the spark that ignites the final run.
See thread & notes. 🧵👇 1/10
#Bitcoin
is still following the high time frame Fib pattern starting at the 2011 Peak. Currently testing the 3.618 level $45.5k. Same as 2017 at 2.618 and 2013 at 1.618.
#BTC
Bull run = not over... 🚀
An excerpt of a very detailed chart I have been working on. See Notes...
It can be mentally challenging to enter at the points of "Maximum Financial Opportunity" for
#Bitcoin
If you need to feel "safer" before you enter, that is ok...
Historically when these indicators flip green it "confirms" bullish momentum.
I'll let you know when it happens.
#Bitcoin
moves in waves.
It has a distinct pattern in downtrends and the CVD and Gaussian Channel on the Daily illustrate it nicely.
Macro/world events are clearly an X factor right now… but otherwise, IMO
#BTC
looks closer to the end of it’s downtrend than the beginning.
This
#Bitcoin
chart seeks to combine 4 different charting models + top signals.
Notice the current consolidation range, how it's similar to the last 2 cycles (but longer) & how in previous cycles, breaking out of this range meant a very fast move to the cycle peak.
#BTC
#HODL
If the stock market put its bottom in I don’t see a case for a deep
#Bitcoin
capitulation / full bear market.
This is a much steeper crash than we saw in 2018 or 2014-15 and BTC held the line. Time will tell.
See notes & comparison with stocks… 👇🏻
📢 This Volatility indicator for
#Bitcoin
recently hit it's historic rock bottom level and bounced perfectly just like it did at the SAME place in 2017! 🔥
#Bullish
Once the reversal completes & it clears 50 volatility to the upside is expected.
#BTC
See notes on chart:👇
1/
I believe in the cyclical nature of
#Bitcoin
and see how it is rooted in the Fibonacci sequence (See Pinned Tweet).
The big players want to scare you. Either you get aligned with their targets… or you lose.
It’s simple and happened in every cycle since 2011.
Research this.
Going deeper with the comparison of the current
#Bitcoin
correction vs 2019-2020. Similarities are remarkable.
I've adjusted it slightly and added an inverse h&s idea - hopefully macro factors don't interfere too much. Still need volume to flip into the green.
Thoughts?
#Bitcoin
is officially out of the down trend channel. Just like the summer it bottomed on the low trend line, fought across and has made retests on the outside of the channel. You can see how the current price line cuts through the range as a midline. Needs to become support.
During the 2020 run,
#Bitcoin
made its first lift-off from the bear market trend line.
This happens each cycle. It usually doesn’t return to the orange trend line until the top is in.
It’s currently sitting above /re-testing the local 1.414 mid-cycle support fib around $42k.
#Bitcoin
has lots of similarities between now and the reversal pump + retrace at the end of the summer.
Notice price action, Bollinger Bands and Cumulative Volume Delta at these 2 points on the Daily chart.
Might see a minor retrace to the orange midline in days ahead.
Call me crazy... but this is how I see
#Bitcoin
right now... stock market appears to be recovering and once it turns that outer resistance into support, it's go time.
Might not be today but that is what I can see happening.
🔥🚀
The .618 and .272 fib levels stemming from the 2011 peak are very important for
#Bitcoin
.
.272 = Peak
.618 levels = Mid-Cycle Top / Bear Floor
Since 2013 we double tapped the .618 mid-cycle top, as the last stop before going parabolic, peaking within $2k of the next .272 fib.
#Bitcoin
Shorts are up but be careful & limit risk… some things to watch on the 3D chart. 👇🏻
- Higher lows
- Bullish inverted hammer candle
- Above the 200EMA
- CMF reversing (institutional accumulation/distribution volume)
- RSI reversing
- 1.272 Fib level not breached
Here is a
#Bitcoin
visualization showing the correlation between fib levels and trend reversals.
Historically at this point in the cycle the 1.414 is the reversal target, but if price doesn't snap back up soon, the 1.272 / $32k region might be the next one.
#HODL
#BTC
Hoping to see another push from
#Bitcoin
over the next few days. This pump + accumulation + continuation pattern happens pretty regularly with
#BTC
after the larger impulses.
The moment I've been waiting for is nearly here...
#Bitcoin
has breached the 100HMA & 7EMA w/ a bottomed RSI on the 1 Week chart... this marked the transition into a bullish trend the last 2 cycles. 👀
Need a solid close on the weekly to confirm.
Expect volatility as always.✌️
Early signals the last 3x
#Bitcoin
macro bottomed:👇
✅ Price crossed HMA100 (1D)
✅ Crossed Bollinger Basis (1D)
✅ Crossed 200EMA (1W)
❌ Tagged 200SMA (1W)
We have 3 of 4.
*It's too early to call it* but things are getting interesting.
Here's a comparison with '18-19 👇
#USDT
Dominance is rising again & might re-test the resistance line in the days to come. If it bounces, this *could* be a
#Bitcoin
bottoming signal.
Still early... but it aligns with oversold indicators/on-chain metrics/fib levels + heavy limit buy orders in the $30-35k range.
When analyzing EMA's & the RSI in context of previous
#Bitcoin
cycles it seems likely that the bottom is in. This current rejection at the 1W 9EMA would be par for the course.
*Assuming stonks aren't rejected '01/08 style*, I think we could see bullish confirmations by Q4. 👇
I took a deeper dive into
#Bitcoin
vs. stock market movement... The correlation is undeniable.
My takeaways? 👇
Crypto needs a healthy stock mkt.
If stocks rally from here ->
#BTC
&
#Alts
can fly. 🚀
W/ a deeper stock correction -> capitulation is possible.
Similarities between the
#Bitcoin
cycles are undeniable IMO. I normally share high time frame charts but here is a daily with supporting evidence based on price action and fib sequence.
#BTC
Price doesn't move identically each cycle, but the 10yr fib pattern is in play. See it?
#Bitcoin
is like chill ya'll... we are only on the 2nd floor...
#HODL
& enjoy the ride... 🤙
Oh and
#BTC
Bear Market basements have never gone below the 2nd floor so.... I think
#WAGMI
Tag a premature bear and show them the way...🐻📈
#Bitcoin
August 2021: +18%, Chop, Dip, PUMP
September 2021: +18%, Chop, Dip, PUMP
March 2022: +18%, Chop, Dip, ________?
This *might* be part of the trigger...
The Fed discussion/situation is clearly a factor as well... Trade very carefully!
Wild time for
#Bitcoin
and the market. No need to rush into calling HTF bottoms until the stock market & BTC show reversal momentum IMO. Still room below for both. ⏳
Incredible how similar this has been to the ‘19-20 area looking back. Historically a great DCA opportunity.
Update -
#Bitcoin
nearly tagged the 1.272 at $32.9k.
If stocks hang on/FOMC meeting goes well...etc.
A reversal pattern similar to recent ones could play out.
Could mean chop & retests of the resistance line & lows before breaking through.
Speculation. Be very careful...
Here is a
#Bitcoin
visualization showing the correlation between fib levels and trend reversals.
Historically at this point in the cycle the 1.414 is the reversal target, but if price doesn't snap back up soon, the 1.272 / $32k region might be the next one.
#HODL
#BTC
Today the doc confirmed that I do not have chronic kidney disease and all of my numbers are back to normal. 🔥
Very grateful. Feels like my personal bear market is finally coming to an end. Thank you for all the well wishes and prayers. 🙏🏻 💯
So... What will happen with
#Bitcoin
this time?
Will it do what it always has and hold support at its key fib levels?
Or are we observing the Macro pattern right as it decides to unravel for the first time?
What do you think?
*note this indicates target levels not timing*
2 of the strongest women out there. Mom hasn’t left her side for a second. Weening baby girl off oxygen today and seeing how she responds… if all goes well through the night we hope to have them home by the weekend. Thanks again for all of the support. 🙏🏻
2 of the strongest women out there. Mom hasn’t left her side for a second. Weening baby girl off oxygen today and seeing how she responds… if all goes well through the night we hope to have them home by the weekend. Thanks again for all of the support. 🙏🏻
#BITCOIN
at resistance - watching for breakout or a rejection… above the HMA which and RSI over 50 are both positive signs.
$SPX is also approaching resistance at it’s 200EMA.
Last time $Tfuel closed its weekly over its major resistance line it broke ATH with 3wks and went on a 6,000% run.
We are getting close to this next leg up. Keep your eye on the prize
#TFUEL
fam!
#Crypto
#THETA
A week ago an appendicitis scare landed me in the ER…turned out to be acute kidney damage, likely from a kidney stone. Numbers are improving. I think I’ll be discharged today. A good reminder to truly prioritize health. Time to focus on recovery & getting well.
✌🏻❤️
“But where will the money come from?”
“There’s no demand…”
“Bitcoin is too big to have a blow off top again…”
We have to think bigger and longer term…
#bitcoin
and
#crypto
are on the verge of mass adoption.
I’m staying patient and not giving up.
#HODL
#Bitcoin
&
#SPX
are retracing... but
#BTC
addresses holding $1k - $1M have all put in a higher high & $10M+ are close. 👀
Wallets holding $1k or more has surpassed April 2022!
Only a matter of time before price follows at that rate, eh? 🔥
I didn't start posting crypto ideas expecting followers... CERTAINLY not 20k.😲
This has always just been a diary of my journey. Learning, trying new things, sharing ideas... the good, bad & ugly.
You all have made this adventure so much more fun.
Thank you very much! 🙏😀🍻
Many alts are down very low as well. I assume they are also being stealthily accumulated for the next leg up. I don't expect most will move too much until Bitcoin does. Nobody knows timing or dates for sure... but patience and buying the blood is generally key in this game. ✌️
As long as
#Bitcoin
stays above the 9EMA & HMA on the 4hr I expect bullish continuation & a steeper trend line to form when they intersect. That is approx. 24hrs from now with the current structure.
If not, I'll look for a bounce on the lower trend line in the $46.7-8k area.
#Bitcoin
is affected by the health of the stock market.
Right now, the $SPX is testing it's primary bull run support EMA's (9 & 21) on the 1W. This test happens after every significant correction.
Regaining this support would be bullish for
#BTC
as well.
If this is another Wyckoff Accumulation pattern like from the summer - I expect more sideways + shakeouts (possibly even sub 40k briefly) meant to scare the uninformed into selling cheap.
The future is not set in stone... but the pattern has never failed to date. We will see...
Update to the Weekly RVI
#Bitcoin
chart from 1.6.22:
It appears this was an early bottoming indicator and it's now above 50 in the BULLISH range.🔥
Considering fib cycles, EWT & how minimal volatility was compared to previous peaks, $69k seems unlikely to be the cycle top IMO.
📢 This Volatility indicator for
#Bitcoin
recently hit it's historic rock bottom level and bounced perfectly just like it did at the SAME place in 2017! 🔥
#Bullish
Once the reversal completes & it clears 50 volatility to the upside is expected.
#BTC
See notes on chart:👇
1/
I've been buy and haven't looked at the charts for a few hours...what a nice surprise lol.
#BTC
blew through my first target and nearly grazed the second... we now have a final battle ahead to flip that 200EMA line into support to "officially" continue the bull run.
#LFG
🚀
Remember... this may sound bad, but it could represent an incredible opportunity if handled properly. It's basically price searching for the demand.
Also might not happen at all. 10/10
Wow. Transacting with
#Bitcoin
is going mainstream. Strike is now integrated with
@Shopify
and will be accepted at point of sale with many of the largest retailers around the world via a partnership with NCR. MASSIVE. 🚀
via
@jackmallers
@TheBitcoinConf
#BTC
hit resistance at a key low time frame fib level within this joyous consolidation range.
On positive note: Yesterday the RSI bounced off support at the same level of the last 2 reversals... last time it took 10 days to flip this fib level into support.
🤞🙏
#Bitcoin
1/3
1/
My view of
#Bitcoin
impulses and corrections over the cycles.
We're still in the running correction we've been in for most of 2021.
#Bitcoin
has not impulsed since February.
Price is resting on the bottom of the Gaussian Channel (5 Day chart). In the past this has led to a capitulation event of -35% to 60%. It has always represented the very best time to buy. COVID was an example of this & it could spark the final leg of the run. 2/20
I personally am not betting against Bitcoin completing it's cycle. I am sharing this to encourage you & show MY perspective/conviction on the market. You can see this pattern for yourself, but best to develop your own convictions & plan rooted in research to verify.