Brian McCormick @bjmtweets Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

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@LemarieY

Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

Here's what the market has been getting wrong about $LMND and why the business has plenty of room to run: Bears say Lemonade's technology can be easily replicated. Not quite. Just slapping an AI chatbot for signups on an app and plugging some machine learning between claims and

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

1 year

@MTG__Dave Probably the strongest way to add storm count in the game

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

How good is $LMND at converting marketing spend into premiums? Over the past 4 years, Lemonade spent $462 million on marketing versus $ROOT's $507 million. For every $1 spent, Lemonade grew gross written premiums by $1.37, while Root grew by $0.65. That's a 110% better return.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

The quality of work @PaperBagInvest has done on $LMND modeling and market research is easily equivalent and higher quality than a $10,000 tailored stock report. Only $5 a month to join his Patreon. What are you waiting for?

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

6 years

Wow. Just wow. Venom #4 , the origin story for Knull. Am I overreacting? This was like reading the origin story for Galactus for the first time. Feels like a modern masterpiece. This is the best single issue of the year. 10/10 @Doncates @RyanStegman #MarvelComics #Venom

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

@Barchart The problem with Cathie Wood is she picks stocks based on longterm potential, yet holds stocks like a day trader

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

I wish $ROOT (and $HIPO) success, but it is very clear to me that $LMND is most likely to scale and succeed in the public insurtech space. And it's not even close. (Hippo's business model is much different than a B2C insurer) Here's four reasons why: 1. Lemonade is strong in

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

11 months

@TolarianCollege Wotc is paying for the failures of the toy division again. I’ll keep saying it, Wotc should split off into its own company like Paypal did with eBay.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

1 month

@mcuban At first it looks great @mcuban , but it's because there are less first-time home buyers, which is not so great

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

Ad from 2001 for Blockbuster. Look familiar? Legacy Insurers vs $LMND

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

Is $LMND an efficient company? I'd say so

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

Buckle up $LMND shorts. You might be going to space soon.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

If you're an investor in a company beyond the founder stage, you couldn't ask for a better communicator than $SOFI's @anthonynoto . How many non-founder CEOs do you see continually buying shares & communicating their story clearly and frequently? Noto is doing the work.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

Why haven't legacy insurance companies been disrupted yet? The top ten insurers in premiums written in the US for property/casualty today are: 1. State Farm - Founded in 1922 2. Berkshire Hathaway & Geico - Founded in 1936 3. Progressive - Founded in 1937 4. Allstate - Founded

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

5 months

The gap continues to widen in search interest for $LMND renters insurance vs leading competitors. People want an insurance product built for the modern age.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

1 year

@SaffronOlive There’s an activist investor trying to spin WOTC off from Hasbro. This needs to happen.

Hasbro activist wants toy company to spin off Wizards of the Coast, add new board members

Alta Fox wants to add members to Hasbro's board and is urging the company to make changes to its business strategy, including spinning off Wizards of the Coast.

www.cnbc.com

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

7 months

Less than 4 years ago $LMND launched pet insurance. They have just surpassed a 25-year leader in pet insurance, Trupanion, in search interest. Filings indicate $LMND offers policies at 20-40% less than $TRUP. Both companies reported a Loss Ratio of 77% in early-mid 2023.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

$LMND is the most popular renters insurance for first time renters under 35 in the US. When a business takes all the new cohorts, you know a disruptive trend is coming.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

$LMND bears & shorts have lost control of the float since the end of 2023.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

The nation's largest insurers like $PGR and $ALL have about $900,000 in premiums per employee. They are doing that with fat premium products like Auto and Home and with massive economies of scale. $LMND is quickly approaching this number and beyond, despite focusing on high claim

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

4 months

$LMND is one of the top 20 most shorted stocks. 1/3rd of their float will have to be bought at some point unless they go bankrupt. $LMND says its cash position will only improve on an ongoing basis by end of year. Who is going to sell to shorts? Time is ticking for them.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

$LMND free cash flow on a trailing twelve month basis. Follow the trend 📈

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

22 days

Found these nice KPI charts on @stock_unlock for $LMND. How can you not like how everything in their control is trending in the right direction?

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

4 months

Everything you need to know about $LMND is in this chart by @PaperBagInvest . Premiums have 10x (and revenue) while barely increasing operating expenses. With Lemonade projecting to be net cash flow positive on an ongoing basis by EOY, this means they only get stronger with time.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

$LMND sells policies in France, Germany, The Netherlands, and The United Kingdom in addition to the USA. That’s something Progressive, State Farm, Geico, Allstate and more haven’t figured out, even with a 100-year head start. Being digital first makes all the difference.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

$LMND is scaling premiums dramatically without having to hire more people. The operating leverage and automation is real. How long until the rest of the market figures it out?

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

$LMND closes the day above the 20, 50, and 200 SMA

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

4 months

@mikesimonsen What this chart is saying is: Home prices dramatically increased and people who bought before pandemic benefited, and people who didn't are having to spend more % of their income on housing.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

That’s one heck of a long consistent trendline $LMND

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

5 months

US consumers are starting to become more aware of pet insurance, with google searches hitting all-time highs. $LMND is one of the leading beneficiaries as it continues to surpass 25-year veterans of the industry.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

Wild how $LMND only has car policies in 7 states, isn't even scaling the line right now as it trains data, and is somehow catching up on search interest vs 100-year-old brands with massive marketing budgets.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

A big part of why I'm so bullish on $LMND is how consistent they are at growing their customer base. Every quarter is better than the prior. Either pricing is great, or customers are happy, or both. And of course, their loss ratios have improved as they have scaled.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

1/3rd of $LMND float is shorted just for them to get a 0% yearly return. Meanwhile, the companies cash position is beginning to grow as well as improve on nearly every metric. Time is not on short’s side.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

$LMND expects to be OCF positive next year. The longer shorts hold on, the more pain they have ahead. Still 1/3rd shorted.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

1 month

FYI - $LMND does not have a substantial portion of their book in Florida. It's under 2.5%. Texas is a bit different. Lemonade has said in the past that they limit exposure along the coastline.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

$LMND is the fastest-scaling insurance company of our generation. What previously took decades to accomplish can be done in months today.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

It's 2024 and the largest personal insurance companies on the planet still require you to purchase through an agent. $LMND is coming for you

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

$ASTS and $NKE are examples of why investors should focus on the business, not past share price market sentiment

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

1 month

All tailwinds for renters and pet growth over the next 5 years for $LMND

rohan

@rohansguliani

1 month

@AeonCoin @sonnguy63358399 @Merant41 @StealthQE4

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

A modern global insurtech in auto and home that could reach scale would easily be worth two Progressives today. That would be a market cap of $276 billion. If $LMND were able to do that over the coming decades, it would be a 200 bagger.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

Just went big on $CELH. Couldn't ignore this growth stock under $37. It's growing 10x faster than Monster but has a lower P/S ratio.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

Is $LMND going out of business? I think not. Worst CAT period in a generation and their cash position improves.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

One of these small-cap growth stocks is accelerating and diverging from the rest $LMND $FVRR $UPST $AI $RSKD

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

What are the most interesting companies under $2 billion market cap? For me its: $LMND - $1.3 Billion 🍋 $FVRR - $900 Million 💵

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

I've yet to see a good $LMND bear case, so I'm going to make one. Since we bulls understand the company better, I believe we are best positioned to make a good bear case. There are a few threats to Lemonade scaling: Pet & Renter's Competition: There are dozens of boutique pet

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

$LMND

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

$LMND smashes Gross Loss Ratio numbers in Q2. Despite another record CAT period in the industry, GLR is down to 79% vs 94% last year. (1/2)

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

Learned a lot listening to this lecture by @MohnishPabrai on the Coca-Cola thesis of Munger and Buffett. It shows the kind of fundamental way of thinking that goes into a great investment.

Mohnish Pabrai Lecture at Univ. of California, Irvine (UCI), May 24,...

In this talk, Mohnish discusses the three basic attributes an investor should possess to effectively beat the odds. 1. Patience 2. Decisiveness and 3.Being d...

www.youtube.com

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

The demand for $LMND car insurance is here. When will loss ratios (and regulator-approved rates) be good enough to scale car offerings? @Lemonade_Inc

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

Bad take by Morningstar. When you’re valued to perfection for the next decade, you can’t take a reputational hit like this and expect sales and retention to continue like they didn’t just cause the most massive global tech outage in a decade. $CRWD

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

18 days

$CELH is the only major energy drink not discounted at my grocery store right now

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

Be careful what companies you laugh at today

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

$LMND isn't perfect. Here are some of my criticisms. 1. They cherry-pick the good data to show us. Why can't we get the loss ratio by line for everything each quarter, including Auto? I get it's bad, but let us see progress. Would like to see consistent metrics shown every

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

$VBNK is the best 10x potential microcap stock you've never heard of. Here's why and what they do: VersaBank is the world’s first fully digital financial institution, and was founded in Canada in 1980. And no, it isn't anything like $SOFI, or $NU, or any of those other digital

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

Below is the Russell 2000 chart overlapping $LMND's share price. Just to give you an idea of how intertwined the two are over the past year.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

Uh, oh. Wait. That doesn't look right? I'm sure it's nothing. $LMND 5/5

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

22 days

Silver lining for $LMND. Events like these encourage more people to sign up for Renters and other insurance policies (yes, they don't take effect immediately). Could be a big quarter in terms of customer growth.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

The only thing slowing $LMND from scaling auto is getting loss ratios down. $ROOT is now in the low 60% range. Lemonade has 10+ years of data from the early auto insurtech, Metromile, which they acquired in 2022. Only a matter of time until they are off to the races!

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

8 months

I'm more excited about $LMND now than ever before. Why? Because they just revealed 30% of net new customers are from Europe and they are all renters. The "global" insurance thesis is underway. With their cash position only improving after H1 of next year, they have a huge runway

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

$LMND

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

@AlecStapp To show how egregiously wrong this claim is: Take away one from the global economy: 1) The Internet or 2) The Fax Machine How impacted is the global economy as a result. Would the internets removal have "no more impact, than the fax machine being removed?

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

Person checking out behind me right now. Bullish $CELH

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

4 months

Now may be one of the last opportunities for truly great returns. VCs aren't taking companies public like they used to. $AMZN and $NFLX both IPO'd for under $500M. These days, $SNOW was $60B at IPO, and Stripe is valued at $70B. There may not be another early-stage $LMND IPO.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

Why is $LMND scaling? Because it is becoming more profitable as it scales. That is the virtue of a lower variable cost model once the fixed infrastructure is built and the insights of trained data accumulate.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

Another record summer for $LMND renters insurance search interest

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

Brand power. $LMND only has car policies in 7 states, isn't actively scaling it, and has more search interest than Esurance did in its first 10 years, despite auto being overwhelmingly their main focus.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

$LMND is growing exponentially faster than Geico, even when adjusting for inflation. Where will Lemonade be in year 14?

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

Legacy insurance frontend vs backend $LMND

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

1 month

$CELH is half the market cap of $WING and $CAVA yet they are twice as profitable

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

$LMND IFP by line estimates. Chart created via @DomienVdE 's spreedsheet

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

4 months

This is what legacy insurance companies look like with 50+ years of coding patched together. Geico has as many as 600 systems. How can anyone believe a legacy insurer will have the same data advantage of $LMND, a system that seamlessly communicates with itself in realtime?

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

$CELH is now cheaper than $MNST on a price-to-sales ratio basis, despite growing sales much quicker. I can't imagine that discount holds up unless there is a significant change in their growth story.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

1 month

Are investors too focused on tech stocks? 5-Year returns: Deckers $DECK: 587% Crocs $CROX: 403% Chipotle $CMG: 245% Texas Roadhouse $TXRH: 219% vs. Big Tech: Meta: 177% Google: 157% Netflix: 156% Shopify: 128% You don't need to invest in tech for great returns

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

4 months

$ROOT was founded in 2015 and has car insurance in 30+ states. $LMND launched car less than 3 years ago and is available in only 7 states. Despite a later launch, Lemonade is already challenging Root in Google search interest, similar to how it surpassed $TRUP this year for pet.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

Liberty Mutual spends a lot on advertisements. In fact, in one year they spend the same amount as Lemonade has in its 9-year history. With all that ad spend, why does Lemonade get almost half the search interest on a shoestring budget? 🤔 $LMND

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

Is $LMND a low-end disruptor? 1/3

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

$LMND has had a consistent multi-week to cover 32% short float over the past year, yet no shorties on X will admit to shorting under $20. I wonder why.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

Some $LMND bears think their Renters insurance is too cheap, they even signup. They might be surprised to find out Lemonade’s Renter gross loss ratio is in the 40s now. High frequency claim policies means data is fully ingested and leaner model means lower cost than competitors.

David Shor

@davidshor

2 months

@quantian1 You joke but when I got renters insurance for my loft I set my sliders to zero out theft and max out liability protections. Nobody should ever sell insurance to anybody who does that!

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

14 days

$TRUP Price to book is 3.5x higher than $LMND

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

1 month

Added more $CELH. A year from now, the growth picture will be clear again

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

$LMND is ahead of schedule on car gross loss ratio, but there's still a lot of work to do. The Metromile acquisition could speed up their transformation relative to $ROOT.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

Why Digital Advertising Will Enable Lemonade to Succeed Where Esurance Floundered ⤵️ The way modern digital businesses like $LMND today can target customers with ads is unlike anything from the dot com era. Want to target a person who rents a luxury apartment, does deep sea

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

14 days

Portfolio allocation of $LMND and $CELH going into Q3 earnings. Ideally, would have a 3rd stock, but nothing is on a sufficient discount. Would consider $MELI under $1,750.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

$LMND's most recent guidance going into earnings. Might want to bookmark this if you're invested.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

1 year

@PleasantKenobi Wonder if AI is already being used in card art and we don't know it.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

For the first time ever, $CELH has hundreds of millions of dollars of profit at their disposal to scale. They've barely begun to deploy it. We are in the early stages of seeing what they can truly accomplish when reinvesting.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

Wife: "What are you reading tonight hun?" Me: "Acquisition Cost Allocation at Progressive Insurance" 😂

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

According to Warren Buffett, six businesses are all the diversification one needs and a seventh is a “terrible mistake”. Do you agree? Listen here 👇

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

$LMND gains. First buy was last year. Let's see where we are after earnings 👏👏👏

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

$LMND shorts not doing so well this year

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

Stocks I think are significantly undervalued from where they can be in 10 years: 1. $LMND 2. $MELI 3. $VBNK 4. $ALB 5. $AMZN

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

My initial thoughts on $LMND Q2 earnings. Overall solid quarter. Loss ratio was a positive surprise. Shows they have significantly de-risked policy mix and are well covered by reinsurance. When we don't have a record CAT quarter, things will look really good. IFP and Customer

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

Two of $LMND's most expensive line items are for new tech development and marketing spend. This tech spending is to improve models, further automate, and make Lemonade the best next-gen platform for AI. These improvements don't improve today's profitability, they improve

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

$LMND is scaling and fixed costs are flat OCF breakeven = 2025 forecast Adjusted EBITDA breakeven = 2026 forecast

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

It's easy to make a modern website design. Why do legacy insurance company websites still look so bad? Here's how $LMND's website looks vs competitors - a thread

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

State Farm, Geico, and Progressive each spend $1 billion dollars on marketing every year, making them the most recognizable insurance brands in the country, yet $LMND sells more policies to first-time renters under 35.

Brad Freeman

@StockMarketNerd

2 years

Your new marketshare leader (via a Google survey) of policies for new renters under the age of 35. Not State Farm... not GEICO... not Progressive... $LMND. Its model to: - win users early - retain them w/superior customer service - enjoy up-selling Is working.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

According to $UPST, their risk modeling is 5x more precise than $FICO. If that's true, given more time and confidence by the industry, FICO's moat could come under serious attack.

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

3 months

Insurtechs will accelerate the trend of personal lines of insurance being sold direct as they increase convenience and grow in awareness. Tomorrow's generation doesn't want to call an agent. $LMND

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

56 years after its founding, less than 5% of Progressive's book was from Standard auto premiums. It only took them 6 years to go from 5% to 50% of their book. How big could Lemonade's car premiums be in 6 years? Change happens faster than you think. $LMND $PGR

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Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

A lot of 2020 $LMND bears coming out of the woodwork recently with a 4-year-old outdated thesis. Shorts are likely skittish they've lost control of the float over the past year and few bothered to cover.

Brian McCormick

@bjmtweets

2 months

$LMND bears & shorts have lost control of the float since the end of 2023.

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