Guatemalan elites are playing with fire. Arresting Arévalo or throwing out his election win would invite regional isolation, including suspension from the OAS, US and EU sanctions, and a stampede for the exits by any investors looking for nearshoring opportunities in the country.
Brazil, invited by President Trump in March to join NATO, is “not eligible,” its deputy secretary general, Rose Gottemoeller, said at
@CFR_org
, citing Article 10, and NATO’s name.
56% of Argentines approve of Milei’s performance, despite six months of deep budget cuts and growing concern over rising joblessness. It is evidence of his political skills, the weakness of a divided and discredited opposition, and public relief as inflation comes under control.
Milei is right, Argentina typically favors redistributing slices of a shrinking pie over pro-growth reforms.
That said, cheerleading for inequality (“es la acumulación de capital y la división del trabajo lo que permite aumentar la productividad”) is not politically sustainable.
Habla Javier Milei en el Foro Económico Mundial de Davos: "Estoy en Davos para decirles que Occidente está en peligro porque quienes deben defender sus valores se encuentran cooptados por una visión socialista"
Hard to quantify "soft power," but Argentina's cultural exports, from Messi to mate, Anya Taylor-Joy to asado, keep it on the global radar even in times of domestic economic distress.
Poor pandemic management in Brazil and Mexico shows "the dangers of electing people who feel like they embody the state and the state doesn't need any competing sources of power or administrative capabilities," I said on the latest
#Americas360
.
@LATAMProg
President Giammattei has been flirting with statesmanship since the election, but he can’t have it both ways, expressing support for a democratic transition while turning a blind eye to the attorney general’s tyrannical crusade against the president-elect’s party.
I’m so honored to be selected by
@TheWilsonCenter
and grateful for the opportunity to strengthen U.S. ties in Latin America and the Caribbean and promote our shared values, including democracy, human rights, environmental protection and shared prosperity.
“Uruguay is becoming a kind of Singapore for South America, a relative oasis for business and trade on a troubled continent.”
I visited Montevideo twice last year, and the skyline shows that businesses, including tech companies, are rewarding Uruguay for its strong rule of law.
President Nayib Bukele is "using the tools of democracy to destroy democracy," ruling by executive orders and portraying the opposition as an "enemy," Claudia Umaña Araujo (
@fusades
), said. Join us now for our El Salvador panel.
@TheWilsonCenter
@LATAMProg
LIVE NOW: Ahead of El Salvador’s Legislative Assembly elections later this month, please join
@LatAmProg
to discuss the challenges to Salvadoran democracy nearly 30 years after the negotiated settlement of its brutal civil war.
Conversé con la Fiscal General
@SandraQuinonezA
sobre el combate contra la corrupción, la importancia de un sistema de justicia penal independiente, y cómo EE. UU. puede fortalecer las instituciones democráticas de Paraguay.
Grato encuentro con el Diputado
@rlopezmurphy
y
@MarianoFederici
. Hablamos sobre la enorme capacidad de Argentina para expandir su producción de minerales, alimentos y energía limpia para abastecer a un mundo con muchas necesidades.
Latin America is often divided into 3 COVID-19 categories: hard-hit non-responders (Brazil, Mexico); hard-hit fast responders like Argentina and Peru; and success stories like Uruguay. Repressive, denialist, data manipulators Venezuela and Nicaragua deserve their own designation.
“We’re all in the same boat,”
@Kasparov63
said this morning in our
@TheWilsonCenter
dialogue on how to support democracy worldwide. “We have to fight together.
Authoritarian regimes are cooperating globally to prop up dictatorships and repress pro-democracy movements. Join us on Wednesday, September 27, from 10 am to 11:30 am (ET), as
@leopoldolopez
presents his new report “Challenging Autocracy from the Front Lines.”
Un gusto conversar con la Diputada
@mariuvidal
, ex Gobernadora de la provincia de Buenos Aires, sobre los aprendizajes de su recorrido por este grande y diverso país.
#Argentina
's problems are not new, I told
@business
. "They want to import products that require dollars, they overspend and borrow in dollars, and they don’t generate dollars because they have a closed economy. And so it's this endless cycle."
Vaccine scandals, including in Argentina and Peru, are troubling in a region where mistrust of government has produced social unrest and populism. In places like England and Israel, successful inoculation campaign have buoyed incumbents following pandemic struggles.
I'm excited to host presidential candidate José Luis Espert, one of
#Argentina
's celebrity economists, who is trying to attract conservative backers of President Mauricio Macri disappointed with the pace of market liberalization.
@jlespert
@mauriciomacri
4) Want to learn more about
@jlespert
's controversial platform? We're hosting him at
@TheWilsonCenter
Wednesday, as part of our series of interviews with
#Argentina
's presidential candidates. RSVP here, .
The reason a smattering of Latin American leaders might be rooting for President Trump's reelection is not his record of collaboration but because they've enjoyed a respite from the U.S. fight against corruption and for press freedom, human rights and environmental protection.
Latin America is home to 8% of the world's population but 19% of COVID-19 cases and 28% of deaths. The economic toll is similarly distressing: Unemployment ↑ 2.6%, GDP ↓ 7.7%, poverty ↑ by 22 million people regionwide (
@eclac_un
).
Latin America’s big-hearted response to
#Venezuela
’s migrants is a lesson to immigration restrictionists: In places near (
#Colombia
) and far (
#Argentina
), the kindness is motivated in part by an historical debt to a people who once welcomed economic migrants and political exiles.
Default was a blow to Argentina’s reputation, but its COVID-19 response, with impressive public support, has been internationally praised, in sharp contrast to the chaotic handling of the pandemic in Brazil.
A clash between anti-corruption champion Bernardo Arévalo and Guatemalan Attorney General Consuelo Porras, of Engel List fame, was inevitable. But it is more dangerous for Guatemala democracy that it is occurring before Arévalo enjoys the powers and protections of the presidency.
Tony Hernández’s trial is both reassuring and discouraging. By embarrassing President Trump (who is content to ignore Honduran government corruption in exchange for support thwarting migrants), the DOJ’s case against President JOH’s brother shows prosecutorial independence. 1/
I'm often asked whether the Biden administration will support the renegotiation of Argentina's $44 billion
@IMFNews
debt, and perhaps even secure its government additional funds. Biden will want to help, but the biggest obstacle is in Buenos Aires, not in the U.S. Treasury. 1/8
In
#China
, analysts "grumble that aid to Venezuela’s corrupt and incompetent leaders would be better spent on social programs at home," as Beijing faces domestic discontent over its
#Venezuela
policy, I write in
@amerquarterly
.
The Peronists "offer Argentines a seemingly irresistible promise: a return to generous public spending on infrastructure, government jobs, social programs and higher wages that appeals to a population accustomed to public largess," I wrote for
@NPR
.
At this point,
#Mexico
’s recognition of Nicolás Maduro is not a neutral, non-interventionist posture, but rather active support, at a critical juncture, for a repressive dictatorship.
Sergey Lavrov is in Latin America selling Russia’s vision for a “multipolar world” in which large countries are free to invade their smaller neighbors and bomb civilian infrastructure. How is that in the interest of Latin Americans?
Unscrupulous businessmen have surely thrived in Guatemala’s post-CICIG Wild West, but the private sector would suffer from domestic unrest and international disgrace.
Argentina is simply stunning, from the multicolored hills of Jujuy and the glacial lakes by San Martín de los Andes to the capuchin monkeys of Iguazú and the icebergs in Lago Argentino.
Fortunately, former U.S. Ambassador to El Salvador Mari Carmen Aponte said, the new U.S. administration has offered a "new clear policy direction" toward Central America focused on corruption and supported by Congress: "There's no confusing this message."
@AponteMC
Fue un privilegio reunirme con
@ArnoldoWiens
, candidato a la Presidencia y ex Ministro de Obras Públicas, y su compañero de fórmula,
@BrunettiJuanMa
. Agradezco esta oportunidad en plena campaña y con tan poco tiempo hasta las elecciones internas.
Thank you,
@lauritalonso
, for speaking to my
@SAISHopkins
@SAIS_LASP
students about your role as Argentina’s anti-corruption czar, the “notebooks” scandal and structural reform to increase transparency and accountability.
A “community of autocrats” is increasingly cooperating to quash pro-democracy movements, Venezuelan opposition leader
@leopoldolopez
said this morning in our
@TheWilsonCenter
dialogue on how to support democracy worldwide. Defenders of democracy “need to do things differently.”
"The end of Maduro’s term should signal the beginning of his total diplomatic isolation,"
@fscutz
and I write in
@washingtonpost
today. "Latin American leaders should no longer treat Maduro as their counterpart."
#Venezuela
@PostOpinions
Latin America's stratospheric level of labor informality could complicate efforts to persuade workers to quarantine voluntarily, given the lost wages and no obvious mechanism for government compensation. Nearly 1/2 of non-farm workers in the region are "underground."
The emergence of a stable, non-Peronist coalition is a ballast for Argentina’s tumultuous politics. Today will likely be the 1st time since Perón that a non-Peronist coalition wins at least 40% of votes in 3 consecutive elections.
The expulsion of Paraguayan opposition Senator Kattya González “was part of a broader strategy by allies of the former president,” Horacio Cartes, to consolidate power, Esteban Caballero
@escabcar
writes in our latest newsletter,
Argentina makes Russia's Sputnik vaccine, and Ecuador could be next. Chile will manufacture China's Sinovac. Mexico bottles AstraZeneca doses produced in Buenos Aires. It's time for Phase II of U.S. "vaccine diplomacy," bringing U.S.-developed mRNA technology to Latin America.
Brazil's COVID-19 catastrophe is spilling across its porous 10,492-mile border, complicating virus control measures from Colombia to Uruguay. Read more tomorrow in my
@TheWilsonCenter
@LATAMProg
newsletter.
“This needs to be a global struggle,” Venezuelan opposition leader
@leopoldolopez
said this morning in our
@TheWilsonCenter
dialogue on how to support democracy worldwide. “The will to fight should not die.”
Argentina’s cultural influence, from Evita to tango, gauchos to Cortázar, Borges to barbecue, Mafalda to Maradona to Messi, is its top export, and its abortion legalization will reverberate globally.
Legalization of abortion in Argentina would be a monumental achievement for reproductive rights advocates in Latin America, where only Cuba and Uruguay permit the procedure without restrictions (
@Guttmacher
). 1/12
Latin America has 8% of the world's population and 30% of all COVID-19 deaths, but public health isn't the only reason leaders are clamoring for vaccines: Latin America has already lost 34 million jobs during the pandemic (
@eclac_un
).
It is easy to criticize the failures and disunity of the Venezuelan opposition, but consider that 134 lawmakers have suffered human rights abuses, including assaults and arbitrary arrest (
@IPUparliament
).
Would a dictatorship in Guatemala lead to greater migration? Just ask Costa Rica. Thanks to Daniel Ortega’s brutal rule in Nicaragua, its small neighbor received the fourth-largest number of asylum applications globally in 2021 (
@MigrationPolicy
).
It’s said Argentina never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity, but its oil and gas industry is growing quickly amid high global prices. Oil production in Neuquén (> 300,000 barrels a day) is the highest in 23 years.
Though seemingly inconsistent with the U.S. hard line on
#Venezuela
, a meeting with Maduro envoys makes total sense. To avoid bloodshed, from civil unrest or invasion, the U.S. should negotiate a transition, with sanctions relief and even the release of jailed regime insiders.
Argentina was recognized by
@TIME
for its COVID-19 performance (“the most surprising entry on this list,” the magazine wrote), with only 57,744 cases thanks to a rapid and rigid response, despite its pre-pandemic economic trials.
“Populism without money is impossible,” I told
@WSJ
. “Fernández has raised enormous expectations that he will in short order restart economic growth and improve the lives of suffering Argentines. He’ll attempt to do so with absolutely no resources.”
The U.S., in a tug of war with China for influence in Latin America, should re-energize its trade agenda, starting in Ecuador and Uruguay, where Presidents
@LassoGuillermo
and
@LuisLacallePou
are hungry for closer ties, I wrote in
@nytimes
@nytopinion
.
The AMIA bombing, which killed 85 people at a Jewish community center in
#Argentina
25 years ago, deservedly draws global attention. Less known is the massacre at Israel’s Buenos Aires Embassy, in 1992, the subject of a powerful display on the Línea D subway.
The
@StateDept
has accused Guatemala’s attorney general of an attempt to “impede the peaceful transition” to President-elect
@BArevalodeLeon
. On Tuesday, we’ll host the election winner at
@TheWilsonCenter
to discuss the threats to his country’s democracy.
.
@MPGuatemala
’s actions against
@TSEGuatemala
are an affront to democracy. The United States will promote accountability for those who attempt to impede the peaceful transition to the administration of President-elect
@BArevalodeLeon
.
In South America’s “lithium triangle,” there is an understandable desire to add value to the mineral by producing batters and electric vehicles. Either way, the region should expand lithium production, and only Argentina is attracting significant investment.
In 2018,
#Argentina
generated only 2% of its electricity from non-conventional renewables, compared to 54% in
#Uruguay
. Read more in my digital newsletter, the
#WeeklyAsado
.
Guatemala shut down a pioneering UN anticorruption agency without a whimper from the U.S. and later brazenly hounded into exile its top local crimefighters and sidelined presidential candidates. Now, however, it is flirting with social unrest and global isolation.
Aceptamos la invitación del Presidente Giammattei a participar en el inicio de la transición de poder. Para la OEA, cualquier cosa que no sea que el 14 de enero Bernardo Arévalo asuma como Presidente legitimo de Guatemala, sería un fracaso de la democracia.
Mis Palabras en el CP
Unfortunately, mismanagement of vaccine distribution is not surprising in Latin America, a region where corruption, particularly in the health sector, is rampant, as we examined with
@DeliaFerreira
, the
@anticorruption
chair.
@LATAMProg
Several lawmakers with a deep interest in Latin America won’t be returning to Congress, including Eliot Engel, who lost his primary, and also Florida Representatives Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and Donna Shalala.
As it faces a global smear campaign, “CICIG’s supporters–and anyone invested in Latin America’s anticorruption struggle–should once again come to CICIG’s defense,” I wrote in
@LatAmGoesGlobal
.
@CICIGgt
#Guatemala
Eight years after Uruguay legalized marijuana, its growers have begun exporting cannabis, earning $7.3 million last year. Learn more in our
@TheWilsonCenter
Latin America newsletter.
@LATAMProg
Perhaps a Maduro scenario seems far-fetched, but Brazilian voters should remember Fujimori (now in the headlines as he returns to prison) when considering risks to their democracy.
Identifying a political trend in Latin America is a fool’s errand, not only because of heterogeneity, but also because the pandemic debt hangover, stagflation and hair-trigger social unrest will shorten whatever political cycle might be afoot.
Lionel Messi places the Captain’s armband on DeAndre Yedlin ahead of the Leagues Cup trophy lift. Yedlin was the club’s captain prior to Messi’s arrival. Really lovely moment. 🇺🇸❤️
#Chile
has quietly resurrected the Trans-Pacific Partnership, after the U.S. withdrawal put the mega trade deal in jeopardy, a
@LATAMProg
colleague and I wrote in a
@LATAMGoesGlobal
op-ed today.
#TPP
Though Alberto Fernández was little known when Cristina Fernández de Kirchner picked him to run for president, “it was a masterstroke,” I told
@WSJ
.
@DubeRyan
"You sort of got spoiled with President Macri because it was a very good relationship," former U.S. Ambassador Edward Prado told our podcast. Now, he said, "there is a lot of the Cristina influence," and senior officials "want to show their independence."
The loss of U.S. influence in Latin America is a policy failure, not a result of ideological mismatch. Take Chile, where a conservative government opposed the U.S. IDB nominee and is welcoming a 2nd Huawei data center in Santiago.
I’m deeply troubled by threats and intimidation directed at
@FDD
, with which I have partnered at
@TheWilsonCenter
to draw attention to the Iranian AMIA massacre in Buenos Aires.
@TobyDersh
Remarkable outcome in Ecuador’s referendum on oil drilling in the Amazon. Almost 60% of voters opted to stop operations, sacrificing 15% of annual national oil production, and $12 billion over the next 20 years, in order to protect the rainforest.
I lived in Montevideo during Tabaré Vázquez's first term, when the president, an oncologist, Uruguay's first socialist leader and an archetype of its political moderation, was treating breast cancer patients, battling Philip Morris and signing trade deals with George W. Bush.
Esta madrugada murió el expresidente Tabaré Vázquez y líder del Frente Amplio tras padecer un cáncer al pulmón que se le había diagnosticado en agosto de 2019. El cortejo fúnebre partirá a las 13:00 horas desde la Explanada de la Intendencia de Montevideo
I hear about a “golpe blando” in Colombia, a “golpe judicial” in Argentina, a “golpe de estado técnico” in Mexico, an “autogolpe” in Ecuador and a “golpe parlamentario” in Peru.
There’s silence about actual democratic decline in 🇸🇻 and 🇬🇹, and backslapping for Nicolás Maduro.
Lula’s victory is a boon for Argentina’s government.
Jair Bolsonaro and Alberto Fernández have unneighborly relations.
By contrast, Fernández calls Lula “el mayor líder que Sudamérica ha tenido” and Lula foreign policy adviser Celso Amorim says Argentina should join the BRICS.
Just as Latin American leaders use opposition to the U.S. embargo to distract from their indifference to human rights abuses in Cuba, several presidents prefer to criticize Luis Almagro than the tyrants in Caracas or Managua.
This year is a special milestone for Argentina, four decades of uninterrupted democracy. Its vibrant democratic culture has proved remarkably resilient.
Argentina's peaceful election was not a mere silver lining for a country drowning in debt and recession. The absence of an anti-system candidate; high turnout (> 80%); and institutional gains, from campaign finance reform to presidential debates, were substantial achivements.
Mis felicitaciones a mi amigo y colega Francisco Sagasti por su nuevo libro, “Gobernar en tiempos de crisis”, sobre su presidencia en Perú durante el período 2020-2021 en medio de crisis políticas, sociales y de salud pública sin precedentes.
In Latin America, the non-alignment calculus is different when it comes to China and Russia. What does Moscow offer to compensate for the moral compromises and diplomatic baggage of friendship with a regime led by a fugitive with de minimis trade and investment in the region?
As Chile prepares to commemorate 50 years since the 1973 coup d’état, its president,
@GabrielBoric
, born in 1986, is perhaps the region’s most consistent and compelling defender of democracy and human rights. Fortunately, not everyone has forgotten the lessons of that tragic era.
🔴 AHORA | Presidente Boric tras cumbre con mandatarios de Sudamérica: "Los atropellos a los DD.HH. en Venezuela no son un construcción narrativa, es una realidad y he tenido la oportunidad de verla".
📡 Señal en vivo:
#CNNTarde
Biden's coalition building will raise pressure on Venezuela's regime and offers another upside, marshaling global response to the humanitarian crisis. Under Trump, as
@BrookingsInst
noted, "the international community has largely been able to ignore this escalating catastrophe."
Latin American leaders should absolutely help shape the Los Angeles Summit of the Americas. So far, however, the region has produced few big ideas for hemispheric cooperation, with most pre-summit debate focused on the exclusion of three tyrants from the gathering.
Among the many potential perils of a Bolsonaro presidency in
#Brazil
is a "hostile border policy in Latin America’s largest nation" that risks disrupting the regional response to
#Venezuela
's migration crisis, I write in
@WPReview
.
#Colombia
#LatinAmerica
Guatemalan elites dismantled a UN anticorruption mission, chased judges and investigators into exile, and banned three presidential candidates from running, with little global outrage.
It appears, however, that the U.S. will not tolerate fraud to prevent an Arévalo victory.
Concuerdo con
@OAS_official
en que mientras Guatemala avanza hacia la segunda vuelta de las elecciones generales del 20 de agosto, garantizar que todos los procesos y los retos se enmarquen estrictamente en la ley guatemalteca es vital para salvaguardar el derecho constitucional
There should be more optimism about Argentina.
La Niña’s end means more rain for the Pampas.
A new natural gas pipeline is almost complete.
Demand is exploding for minerals, like lithium and copper, abundant in the cordillera.
A new political cycle is around the corner.