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Brian Taylor Profile
Brian Taylor

@bdtaylor_SU

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Professor @SUPoliSci and Director of @SUMoynihanInst @MaxwellSU . 3 books on Russian politics.

Syracuse, NY
Joined July 2017
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@bdtaylor_SU
Brian Taylor
2 years
"An excellent place to learn more about the Russian leader is Syracuse University Professor Brian D. Taylor’s The Code of Putinism, which explains the worldview of Putin & his closest supporters." Thanks Stuart Anderson & @Forbes . Quite a list to be on!
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Brian Taylor
2 years
Maybe don’t put 🇷🇺 disinfo straight in the headline.
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Brian Taylor
2 years
Watching the economic news out of Russia as sanctions hit, I was reminded of the programmatic statement Putin made 22 years ago on his first day in office. It was called "Russia on the Eve of the Millennium." This is what he promised Russians. A short thread of quotes: 1/7
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Brian Taylor
7 days
The US economy in nominal terms is 14X as large as Russia's. US assistance to Ukraine equals .3% of US GDP. The economy of New York state alone is as large as Russia's. Yet Vance thinks helping Ukraine fight off a genocidal war of recolonization is somehow beyond our means.
@daniel_mcdowell
Daniel McDowell
7 days
He does not think the United States is capable of assisting multiple allies at one time because "we don't make enough munitions." That's it. That's the argument. We don't make enough artillery shells and, apparently, he doesn't think we can possibly make more so🤷‍♂️ 2/3
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Brian Taylor
2 years
"History shows conclusively that all dictatorships and authoritarian systems of government are transient. Only democratic systems are enduring." 5/7
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Brian Taylor
2 years
"Without consistent integration of Russia's economy into global economic structures we simply will not be able to rise to the levels of economic and social progress that have been achieved by advanced countries." 7/7
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Brian Taylor
2 years
"People want stability, certainty, the ability to plan for the future - their own and their children's - not for a month, but for years, decades. They want to work in conditions of peace, security, and a firm legal order." 2/7
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Brian Taylor
2 years
"Patriotism is the desire to make one's country more beautiful, richer, stronger, happier. When these feelings are free from national conceit and imperial ambition, there is nothing reprehensible or small-minded about them." 3/7
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Brian Taylor
2 years
"In today's world, a country's power is manifested not so much in its military might as in its ability to lead in the creation and application of advanced technology, ensuring a high level of prosperity for its people." 4/7
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Brian Taylor
2 years
"We will continue to work to create an attractive investment climate for foreign investors. I will tell you frankly, without foreign capital, the country will take a long and difficult time to move up... We must do everything to make foreign capital come to our country." 6/7
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@bdtaylor_SU
Brian Taylor
2 years
In 2007 Time named Putin its "Person of the Year." Here is his answer to the question, "Do you think Ukraine will ever again become part of Russia?"
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Brian Taylor
2 years
This tweet from @LaSeletzky very succinctly captures my problem w/ the headline, for those who have asked. 👇
@LaSeletzky
Leta McCollough Seletzky, JD 🐳
2 years
@bdtaylor_SU @WriterWarrior If a statement must be followed by the qualifier “Russia says,” it should be neither the headline nor framing 🤦🏽‍♀️
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Brian Taylor
5 months
Given how much more repressive Putin's Russia 2024 is compared to Gorbachev's 1989 USSR, I'm going to say that Putin's alleged order to the FSB and the police to not let Navalny's funeral turn into a repeat of the Sakharov funeral failed decisively.
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Brian Taylor
5 months
A few resources on #Navalny , especially for those who don’t closely follow Russian politics. All in English. 🧵 1 of my favorite portraits of Navalny is actually about his equally impressive wife, Yulia Navalnaya. By @juliaioffe . 1/8
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Brian Taylor
2 years
Email from a Russian ex-friend today. In 90s/early 00s he was smart, funny, enjoyable. He became an ardent Putinist & professional regime propagandist. Email subject: “wars of necessity.” I didn’t even read it. But I do wonder what the hell happened to him, and it makes me sad.
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Brian Taylor
2 years
Reminder about size of Ukraine. h/t @ALanoszka
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Brian Taylor
2 years
How badly did Putin mismanage arguably Russia’s most important foreign relationship? This badly. 👇
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siry
2 years
@steven_pifer Ukrainian polls "How do you feel about Russians" 2008-2022
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Brian Taylor
1 year
Interesting long read on “how Putin came to hate Ukraine” by Ilya Zhegulev. Based on insider interviews. Claims that decision for war was taken in Feb-Mar 2021. “Last straw” – closing of Medvedchuk’s TV channels. 1/4
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Brian Taylor
2 years
Simonyan saying the quiet part out loud again: “All our hope is on a famine.”
@ukraine_world
UkraineWorld
2 years
"The famine will start now and they will lift the sanctions and be friends with us, because they will realize that it's impossible not to be friends with us," - said Kremlin propagandist Margarita Simonyan during the Petersburg Economic Forum. #StopRussia
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Brian Taylor
1 year
New article w/ @ReneedeNevers . BLUF: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine isn’t just another land grab. It’s an attempt to recolonize lost empire, and threatens to return us to the age of conquest. A thread: 1/8
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Brian Taylor
2 years
The odd thing about the “we shouldn’t humiliate Putin” takes is that Putin already thinks all sorts of random things were efforts to humiliate him: - Beslan - Orange Revolution - Arab Spring - Euromaidan Revolution - women in prominent 🇷🇺 policy posts under Obama - Etc.
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Brian Taylor
2 years
Wow, NYT Sunday Opinion has a whole page of columns on 🇷🇺-🇺🇦 war, let's see which experts they turned to. Ah, yes, David Brooks, Maureen Dowd, and Ross Douthat. 🙄🤬
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Brian Taylor
2 years
This is a babushka’s brain on 🇷🇺TV.
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Brian Taylor
8 months
Excellent & timely from my colleague @TheOpenMike . "If Putin is not defeated on the battlefield now, it will cost the US far more to deter & defend against future Russian aggression." Don’t stop now. US aid to Ukraine continues to be a wise investment.
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Brian Taylor
2 years
New Year’s mood in Russia.
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Brian Taylor
2 years
Every time I go on YouTube to watch a video related to Ukraine the algorithm recommends I watch a 7 year old video called "Why is Ukraine the West's Fault? Featuring John Mearsheimer." And I die a little inside.
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Brian Taylor
4 months
2 general & persistent points about Russia & terrorist attacks - a short 🧵: 1) Putin routinely blames outsiders (esp the US) for terrorist attacks caused by internal problems. 1/6
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Brian Taylor
11 months
The “major war” had already started. If you mean a Russian attack on NATO, this is almost certainly incorrect, not “probably correct.”
@WalterIsaacson
Walter Isaacson
11 months
To clarify on the Starlink issue: the Ukrainians THOUGHT coverage was enabled all the way to Crimea, but it was not. They asked Musk to enable it for their drone sub attack on the Russian fleet. Musk did not enable it, because he thought, probably correctly, that would cause a
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Brian Taylor
2 years
I wrote a thing. A short🧵follows. Most agree that Putin doesn’t currently face the threat of a coup or revolution. I ask a different Q: what happens if Putin leaves office unexpectedly, due to death or illness for example? 1/6 via @ForeignAffairs
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Brian Taylor
2 years
"The 🇷🇺 military is poorly designed for a sustained occupation, or a grinding war of attrition, which is exactly the conflict it has found itself in. The 🇷🇺 military doesn’t have the numbers available to easily adjust." key from @KofmanMichael & @RALee85
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Brian Taylor
2 years
Peter the Great: Opened a window to Europe Putin: Closed the window to Europe Aired it out, that's enough.
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Brian Taylor
2 years
In light of the Russian government bans on @shaunwalker7 and @MarkGaleotti , I would recommend Walker's "The Long Hangover: Putin's New Russia and the Ghosts of the Past" and the following books by Galeotti: 🧵1/285
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Brian Taylor
9 months
Email from a colleague at another university:
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Brian Taylor
1 year
Putin in a.m.: This is treason. Peskov in p.m.: No charges against Wagner troops or Prigozhin, who will go to Belarus. Meanwhile, peacefully speaking out for democracy & against the war can get you 25 years ( @vkaramurza ), 8+ years ( @IlyaYashin ), 7+ years ( @LChanysheva ), etc.
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Brian Taylor
1 year
Reminder: Holding a piece of paper with the word "peace" on it - discrediting the army. Calling the country's top military leadership "scum," "bitches," and "dickheads," accusing them of corruption & undermining the war effort - NOT discrediting the army.
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Brian Taylor
2 years
1 of best analysts of 🇷🇺 pols: Elites don't support Putin, w/ rare exceptions. People in & around power are in shock. No one was ready for war. They didn't believe it could happen. None of them will go against Putin, of course, but idea that boss went crazy not just liberals now.
@Stanovaya
Tatiana Stanovaya
2 years
На начало года Путин оказался перед выбором: либо Украина, либо частичная сделка с США (ответные предложения Вашингтона).Получить и то, и другое,он уже не мог и выбрал то, что ему показалось притягательней, но что делает Россию стратегически более уязвимой
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Brian Taylor
2 years
@shaunwalker7 I honestly didn’t understand why Nadezhdin has put himself through this for years. I guess he gets paid to be the token liberal whipping boy? But today it’s good he persevered.
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Brian Taylor
3 years
My partner of 25+ years confessed she thinks khachapuri is just "okay" and my world is crumbling.
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Brian Taylor
9 months
GRU officers complain to Putin about the "personal tragedy" for their families of being tossed out of Europe after the invasion of 🇺🇦 - trouble w/ schools, housing, jobs for spouses. 🐊😭 Esp. liked this wedding photo of 1 🇷🇺 spy & his wife.
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Brian Taylor
2 years
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Brian Taylor
1 year
Russian FSB accuses military of only telling the boss what he wants to hear.
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Brian Taylor
2 years
Since this thread took off, adding a link to the original in Russian. If someone has an English copy, please put in comments. Also, #НетВойне
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Brian Taylor
5 months
I think the Carlson/Putin interview is further evidence that Putin often says exactly what he thinks, and isn’t always calculating the impact of his statements for maximum political benefit. Seva captures it nicely here:
@SevaUT
Seva
5 months
Carlson: what caused the war and why was it NATO? Putin: In 862 the people of Novgorod invited a Varangian prince…. C: and what about NATO? please say Nato P: Let us recall Yaroslav the Wise, who once had a dream about a Ukrainian witch….
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Brian Taylor
3 years
@giantcat9 Actual test footage
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Brian Taylor
3 years
TFW you, a supposed Russia expert, has never heard of some of the places where protests took place today. The spread of protests most striking and unexpected result for me from today. 112 cities. Info from @OvdInfo & @bbcrussian #Navalny
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Brian Taylor
5 years
So glad to see that @nytimes has learned nothing & is sticking with “both sides “ framing even though story states there is “no evidence“ for 1 of the “sides.”
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Brian Taylor
2 years
Genius. Reminds me of a 2001 quote by a former Putin aide: "Putin is no enemy of free speech. He simply finds absurd the idea that somebody has the right to criticize him publicly."
@MoscowTimes
The Moscow Times
2 years
Konstantin Abramov, director of state pollster VTsIOM, defended "filtering information” at Russia's Online Safety forum Monday, saying it would give Russians more clarity on the Kremlin’s "military operation" in Ukraine.
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Brian Taylor
2 years
Another day of protests on Nevsky Prospect in Putin’s hometown of Saint Petersburg.
@Wild_SPb
Дикий Петербург
2 years
Гостиный двор сверху Фото: "Фонтанка"
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Brian Taylor
4 months
I have been working on a little – one might even say very little – thing for the last several years. It’s now in production and will be out in the fall. More to come.
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Brian Taylor
2 years
Is the largest country in the world “cornered?” A short debate. P.S. 👀 ratio
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Brian Taylor
1 year
@mkraju Smith in 2010 on the values his parents instilled in him growing up: “They pay their taxes, follow the rules and they expect their public officials to do the same.”
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Brian Taylor
5 years
The hearings today bring to mind the time that Howard Baker argued that the Watergate break-in was a false flag operation conducted by the DNC itself. Good times.
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Brian Taylor
1 year
Consistent w/ others, says Putin didn’t consult many people, & that Yuri Kovalchuk was v influential during pandemic. Putin thought regime change in Kyiv would be easy. “Kovalchuk convinced him that the West is weak; Medvedchuk convinced him that Ukraine is weak & loyal.” 2/4
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Brian Taylor
5 years
I wonder what happened in 2016 to cause this ⬆️ in poli sci majors, esp. among women? 🤔
@APSAtweets
APSA
5 years
Chart of the Month: Who is driving the rise in political science degree completions? Women.
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Brian Taylor
4 months
2) Russian security & law enforcement often fail to do the things they are supposed to do according to the law – fight crime & terrorism, protect property rights, etc. Instead, they focus on special tasks for the authorities, such as building a regime of repression. 4/6
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Brian Taylor
4 months
I wrote 13 years ago: “Power ministry personnel are more oriented toward serving their own personal interests or those of the powers that be than those of society as a whole; predation and repression dominate over protection in terms of law enforcement behavior and norms.” 5/6
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Brian Taylor
4 years
"Mr. Putin knows what happened, or he can find out, and if he continues to hide behind glaringly phony denials and ridiculous accusations, he only strengthens the suspicion that this was a deliberate, state-sanctioned hit."
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Brian Taylor
1 year
Putin believed for years that US controlled Ukraine. Claims Shoigu was supportive of invasion but “many siloviki were opposed” (doesn’t say who). Concludes by claiming most of elite is opposed, & alleges that Kiriyenko uses FSB to pressure people who want to leave to stay. 3/4
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Brian Taylor
2 years
With a paper due next week, reminding my students to use active voice. Be precise about who did what. h/t to @emilythorson for the "character/action" language.
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Brian Taylor
11 months
24 years ago, in Sept. 1999, there were 4 apartment bombings in 🇷🇺. The official version blamed Chechens. Many believe it was an FSB conspiracy to bring Putin to power. This 🧵 is about a new article w/ a 3rd version. 1/11
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Brian Taylor
11 months
Some peeps: 🇺🇦 should just give 🇷🇺 a little territory. Then there’d be ☮️. 🇷🇺 officials: No thanks, 🇺🇦 isn’t real, all its territory is disputed.
@MedvedevRussiaE
Dmitry Medvedev
11 months
A new idea for Ukraine has emerged from the North Atlantic Alliance office: Ukraine will be able to join NATO if it gives up the disputed territories.   It does look like an interesting idea. The only problem is that all of – supposedly – their territories are highly disputable.
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Brian Taylor
6 months
Since the Carlson-Putin interview seems to really be happening.
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Brian Taylor
4 months
From my 2011 book "State Building in Putin’s Russia: Policing & Coercion after Communism." The basic argument is that a disregard for the way state officials behave towards citizens had a negative impact on state capacity. Sadly, nothing has changed. 6/6
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Brian Taylor
1 year
Very convincing investigation with multiple types of evidence. A massive Russian war crime. "A dam in Ukraine was designed to withstand almost any attack imaginable — from the outside. The evidence suggests Russia blew it up from within."
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Brian Taylor
9 months
Kremlin propagandist Simonyan now thinks attacking hospitals is unacceptable.
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Brian Taylor
3 years
Great story by @HenryJFoy . Sometimes cliches are true. Senior Kremlin official: “You cannot forget that Putin learnt about wider society as an officer of the KGB. He is a product of that system, and deep down will always think like that system does.”
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Brian Taylor
3 years
Contrast between those following 🇷🇺 troop movements closely & those following 🇷🇺 media closely is notable. @KofmanMichael & @MassDara talk of "large-scale" op & "growing dread," @ArkadyOstrovsky & @AlexKokcharov don't see media "preparation for war" or anti-🇺🇦 info campaign.
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Brian Taylor
3 years
My new article in @ForeignAffairs on “Putin’s Rules of the Game.” I look at Putin’s 2020, esp. his new constitution, and what it means for Russian politics and US-Russian relations. A thread. 1/7 via @ForeignAffairs
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Brian Taylor
5 years
@EllenBarryNYT For your consideration: Corrections
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Brian Taylor
1 year
I used to have a system of printing out articles to read, stacking them in piles, & not reading them. Now I save PDFs to my computer in thematic folders and don't read them. Progress.
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Brian Taylor
1 year
@carlbildt @irgarner It's hard to pick just 1 moment, but I think this was my favorite:
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Brian Taylor
4 years
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Brian Taylor
7 months
Navalny was sent to this very remote and harsh prison camp for the crime of wanting Russia to be free. Previously the Russian state tried to kill him with the banned nerve agent Novichok for the same crime.
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Brian Taylor
3 years
"Today, the Secretary of State determined that the Government of the Russian Federation has used a chemical weapons against its own nationals, in violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention.”
@Mike_Eckel
Mike Eckel
3 years
More details from @StateDept on the state laboratories and research facilities being targeted under the CBW Act:
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Brian Taylor
1 year
A lot of detail about 2014, Minsk Agreements, shattered hopes of Putin to get Zelensky to agree to Russian interpretation of Minsk. Also some intriguing little tidbits, such as an alleged SVOP (Karaganov & Lukyanov shop) closed meeting a week before invasion. 4/4
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Brian Taylor
2 years
. @russianforces & other nuke experts: This is from a 2017 @UCSUSA Issue Brief. Is this still your understanding of 🇷🇺 nuclear launch procedures?
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Brian Taylor
2 years
Dystopian Moscow. Cops beating a protestor in the most famous kids store in the city (which happens to be across street from FSB Lubyanka HQ).
@doxa_journal
Журнал DOXA 🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️
2 years
В Москве протестующего избили при задержании в Центральном Детском Универмаге на глазах у детей. Видео: Avtozak LIVE
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Brian Taylor
1 year
Putin would look unbelievably weak if he removed Shoigu and/or Gerasimov after this, seemingly caving to an armed mutiny by a private army. It would IMO greatly increase the chances that members of the elite start looking for post-Putin options.
@ABarbashin
Anton Barbashin
1 year
MOD wants to dissolve Wagner. Wagner goes to Moscow. Wagner stops 200 or so km short of Moscow. Prigozhin says it's because he doesn't want to spill Russia blood. Likely explanation: he was given exclusive guarantees and protection from Putin and/or promise to change smth in MOD
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Brian Taylor
4 months
He did this most famously with respect to Beslan in 2004, when he said that “others” help the terrorists because they would like to “tear off a juicy piece” of Russia. 2/6
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Brian Taylor
3 years
Nice little story about how when Putin meets factory workers they are carefully vetted by FSB, isolated for 2 weeks (even though Putin reportedly has been vaccinated), and most of the "workers" who ask questions are local officials dressed up as workers.
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Brian Taylor
4 months
Putin even earlier, in Nov. 2000: “Chechnya should never be used by anyone as a springboard for an attack on 🇷🇺, & should not be allowed to sink the country into a bloody swamp, as our geopolitical adversaries dream of doing.” 3/6
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Brian Taylor
4 years
💯
@McFaul
Michael McFaul
4 years
"In addition to power, Putin has purpose. He is highly motivated by a set of orthodox, illiberal, antidemocratic, anti-Western ideas. American analysts often imagine that Putin is a transactional leader... That judgment is wrong."
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Brian Taylor
5 years
Moscow police making sure that the "solitary pickets" are at least 50 meters apart; otherwise it would be an unsanctioned rally. Scenes from protest against arrest of journalist Ivan Golunov. The absurdities of a disordered police state.
@martin_camera
Тот самый Мартин
5 years
Полиция измеряет расстояние между людьми, стоящими в одиночных пикетах.
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Brian Taylor
2 years
Russia built some of the world’s fanciest malls over the past 2 decades. Now people queue for rubles, anticipating a collapse of the ruble tomorrow. #нетвойне
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Brian Taylor
2 years
There will be time for analysis later. Now I would like to say that this is a stupid and criminal war. #нетвойне #StandWithUkraine
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Brian Taylor
4 months
If: a) you're at #ISA2024 ; b) care about 🇷🇺 foreign policy; c) awake at 8:15 Fri; d) want to hear someone with a sore throat present using a combo of interpretive dance & a voice that is part frog, part Barry White, I've got the panel for you. @NKuhrt @kath_stoner @david_g_lewis .
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Brian Taylor
1 year
It would set a terrible precedent if Ukraine were pushed to give up land. Borders aren't perfect. But large wars of territorial conquest are extremely rare today and viewed with opprobrium by most of the world’s states. Properly so. 8/8
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Brian Taylor
3 years
This wall in Saint Petersburg is getting quite the workout today.
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Brian Taylor
3 months
It would sure be a shame if Russian soldiers sitting in trenches in Ukraine saw these photos unearthed by @teamnavalny of the lifestyle of Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov (arrested today for bribery) & his wife.
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Brian Taylor
2 years
Navalny compares Russian media today to Rwandan radio station that played a role in inciting genocide and calls for sanctioning all Russian media personnel who participate. Good 🧵
@navalny
Alexey Navalny
2 years
10/14 Warmongers should be treated as war criminals. From the editors-in-chief to the talk show hosts to the news editors, all of this Thousand Hills Radio should be sanctioned now and tried someday.
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Brian Taylor
1 year
The 🇷🇺-🇺🇦 War is different. It is a war of recolonization by the former imperial power. A critical feature of this case is that Ukraine is a full-fledged member of the UN whose 1991 borders were explicitly affirmed by Russia on no fewer than four occasions before 2014. 6/8
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Brian Taylor
5 months
Not the worst thing in this clip, but this moron was president for 4 years & never learned very basic facts. NATO states don't "pay" the U.S. to be a member, they made a commitment to raise defense spending to a certain share of their economy. It was never about getting "paid."
@KamalaHQ
Kamala HQ
5 months
Trump says he would encourage Russia to attack NATO allies: I said I would not protect our NATO allies. In fact, I would encourage Russia to do whatever the hell they want
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Brian Taylor
1 year
A reasonable analogy would be if, several decades after Irish or Algerian independence, the UK or France declared that it no longer recognized the agreed-upon borders and then tried to recolonize those countries and seize big chunks of their territory. 7/8
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Brian Taylor
2 years
@RTPerson3 New Yorker, 1998. The year I got my PhD and started my 1st job.
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