On April 17, 2017, my dad passed away
For the last 13 months, I worked
@CBinsights
and also ran his chemical manufacturing biz in India
It was acquired on June 1
Lessons, thank yous and observations here
Earlier today, I declined a $100M offer to acquire
@CBinsights
1. See how it unfolded in these screenshots
2. A great reminder to never check or respond to Twitter DMs again
cc: CBI board, investors & team
Hubspot,
@stripe
and JP Morgan Chase all acquired similar companies recently
Really?!
Yup - Tech and financial services are looking to buy media companies and communities
And this type of M&A is going to accelerate
Why?
In 6 letters, the answer is LTVCAC
๐งต
Airtable is probably worth less than the total equity funding it has raised
I'm not talking about the $11.7B valuation it raised at in December 2021
I'm talking about it being worth less than the ~$1.4B+ in financing it has raised
Here's the math/data
Airtable is on track for
Thinking of changing my Twitter bio to include:
Stripe alum
YC founder
Stanford grad
Thiel Fellow
5 successful exits
What else should I add to make me look smart & accomplished?
Neednโt be true as people wonโt check
Lmk
1/ Some signs to look for that suggest your startup equity won't be worth shit
(note: there are probably exceptions but generally, these will steer you right)
PSA: 9.9 of 10 times, that big company person who says they want to work at a startup really doesn't.
They think they do. They want to think they could.
But they don't. And they can't.
All VC websites say they partner with exceptional founders
There is a large untapped opportunity for a VC to come along that partners with average and perhaps mediocre founders
Who will own this space? ๐ค
#blueocean
Reference checks are not taken seriously enough
A couple of years ago, I got religion on them
Here are 8 reference call questions that get past BS and really help understand a candidate
๐งต
New startup model to build $10-25M revenue cos
Hereโs the constraints
- never have >50 on the team
- everyone takes profit distributions (eventually)
- no outside capital
- product quality + automation to keep < 50
Anyone building cos w/ headcount constraint?
What ya think?
UES NYC parent success formula
Get kid into Trinity
They get into Harvard
They get job at Goldman
They get into Stanford GSB
They get a job at Blackstone
What did I get wrong?
$170M in revenue
Awesome
โThey bootstrapped and turned down offers of VC funding. Before the sale, Park and Marino owned the vast majority of the biz, with the only other stockholders being employees to whom they had given equity grantsโ
I operated my dad's business in India after his sudden death
Was an absolutely brutal place to do business
Heard this wisdom from a non-Indian last night who built and ran a biz in India
INDIA = I'm Never Doing It Again
Amen ๐
To: My fellow data/info-biz nerds
This is a great summary and another reason why proprietary quantitative or qualitative data & insights are going to be so powerful in this generative AI / LLM future
h/t
@joeobrien513
Alright, some napkin math analysis that suggests
@flexport
's current valuation might actually be 80+% lower
Yup - not the $8 billion valuation it last raised at in 2022
But more on the order of $1.41 to $1.58 billion
Ouch โฆ but why?
Itโs a combo of the company being priced
Tried my hand at startup advisory work earlier this yr (early-stage)
Didn't like it
Advice mostly boiled down to same 5 things
1. Narrow focus & increase quality
2. Optimize for speed
3. Don't hire until it hurts
4. Talk to customers a lot
5. If unsure abt teammate, move on
We bootstrapped
@cbinsights
by first building a totally different business
It involved hedge funds, too big too fail banks and $100,000 PDFs
For nerds interested in data and information services businesses, you might enjoy this
VC is a crazy game
"When founders get diluted below double-digit ownership, they begin to see themselves as employees, not owners and that is bad for the company, the team & investors. For some founders, they start to feel that way at below 20% or 15%"
Still amazed at how many deal makers (VCs, M&A folks, corporate VCs) don't do double opt-in intros
They should teach you this in day 1 of dealmaking school
Your startup has more than 5 people
Here's 18 things you can do in 2022 to screw it up
Want your startup to end 2022 weaker than when you started?
Follow these tips
๐งต (ya, I know)
Lol at all the VCs who did undisciplined deals with crazy valuations now lecturing startups about discipline
(Note: not talking about any VCs I personally know. Just the other ones)
What are your top 5 podcasts?
- MFM
- All-In
- People v Algorithms
- Hard Fork
- Limited Supply
- Mktg Against the Grain
- Colin & Samir
- Flagrant (only on YT)
That's actually 8
Who do you like?
Unpopular opinion
I think founders speaking at / keynoting conferences is generally a huge waste of time
Good for ego but branding/biz dev value is meh
Used to speak at lots of events and should have just spent that time generating content which pays dividends forever
WDYT?
Dear media peeps
If
@WeWork
has a spectacularly terrible IPO, it will have zero impact on broader tech or unicorns or startup funding or really anything
Thx
โPeople rarely see the small steps when theyโre looking for enormous outcomes, but deserving enormous outcomes is mostly the result of a series of small steps that culminate into something visible.โ
My next startup...sort of
Except it's not a startup
Along with a few others, I'm working on building a 6th to 12th grade School of Entrepreneuring.
And so I wanted to share some of my 'wet clay' thoughts on how we're thinking about this as I know there are a lot of smart
Would this be illegal?
1. Organize a few hundred thousand folks to simultaneously cancel their subscriptions to a Netflix, Disney, etc
2. Short the stock
I know it's not easy to do but curious if illegal?
Don't you dare reply to this saying it's a perfect use case for a DAO
Why do kids learn about sedimentary vs igneous vs metamorphic rocks in school?
Genuinely curious the value school systems believe this type of information provides
Robinhood got 600k signups (as of yday) for their checking/savings aka cash management account
This was fantastic marketing
They had to change the copy today but only after theyโd derived most of the value from the launch
Well played by their team
When a founder shares revenue w/ media, here's how to decode:
"7 figures of revenue"
>>> revenue is $980k
"millions in revenue"
>>> revenue is $2 million
"tens of millions in revenue"
>>> revenue is $10.05M
"close year with $100M ARR"
>>> ARR is $70 million
7/ Early stage founders (Seed/Series A) lecturing others on how to build a business vs actually talking about their business
Personal brand building founders trying to be 'gurus' are almost always a total dumpster fire
Periodic reminder that when folks say "It's like working at a startup in a big company", they have no idea what it's like to actually work at a startup
The intense drama about SVB has died down
But the implications on the pvt markets will be felt in coming weeks & months
They will be big for VCs, PE and startups
Weโll dig into what the data says here
First stop - Letโs dig into how debt was being used to prop up valuations
"Valuation is temporary. Control is forever."
Not discussed nearly enough in the unicorn boom. Wonder how many founders work for their investors now?
Prob works if youโre consistently going up & to the right. Prob not ideal when you hit a bump
quote by
@naval
via
@lpolovets
4/ Mid- to later-stage company and the about us page is all about their investors
That's ok at the early stages but eventually you gotta build some shit for customers
If you're bragging about your investors at Series B, C, the actual biz model is fundraising
๐When our AGI overlords arrive,
@harrymack
is the only 1 whose job will be safe
Absolutely unbelievable skills
Don't know him?
Watch this. I guarantee you will be blown away (and probably smile)
๐ฅ ๐ฃ Iโve decided to โfireโ myself after 14 years as CEO of
@CBinsights
I'll still be working 180% at CBI but now in the role of Founder & Executive Chairman.
In this role, my focus shifts to customer conversations, product, content & partnerships.
One area I'll be spending
Elon Musk is the best business builder of this generation (perhaps ever)
I wish he'd share more about business building
This video of him is great
My favorite parts
* "Make your requirements less dumb"
* Name people, not departments
* "Don't optimize something that should not
We bootstrapped
@cbinsights
by first building a different business involving hedge funds, too big to fail banks, and $100,000 PDFs.
Data and information services nerds, you might enjoy this.
Backstory
โช๏ธ My first day of freedom from big company employment: Jan 1, 2008.
โช๏ธ Bad
5 yo son: what does famous mean?
Me: someone or something known by a lot of people
S: ok. So like wheels are famous.
Me: huh?
S: everyone knows what a wheel is
Me: please eat your breakfast
Anyone got a good way to explain โfamousโ to a 5 yo?
"At HBS...."
"When I was at Stanford..."
If someone finds a way to drop this in the first 3 sentences of every conversation and is 30+ yrs old, what conclusion, if any, should be drawn?
We just announced our first M&A transaction
@CBinsights
acquired Dow Jones VentureSource assets which gives us a ton of data on valuations, mgmt teams and service providers
Excited to get this data in the hands of our clients
More surprises soon :)
8/ Founders that rush into raising $ to build a co in a hot space to become player no 10
These folks aren't actually motivated by the problem they're solving. They just see an opportunity for a quick flip
They'll get bored when the momentum dies and then they'll pivot to web3
Reports now saying that Google will be bankrupt by the end of March
Life comes at you fast
Innovator's Dilemma
Satya is such a badass. F'n legendary CEO.
I love Bing
#ChatGPT
Curios -- Why do VCs get a 1x liquidation preference when investing?
Is the idea this aligns incentives in some way?
Given VCs makes their money on the outliers and it is called "venture" capital, why do VCs get this protection?
"It's industry standard" is not an answer
"Big companies are slow"
In < 3 months...
* Microsoft relaunched and rearchitected parts of Bing to integrate chatGPT
* They integrated it into Edge browser
* Did a mktg launch event that put Google on their heals
Insanely killer execution
Is your startup running this fast?
Upon reflection, the fact that startups were raising VC $ and then turning around and investing those $ into other startups was one of the wilder things during peak market craziness
Examples:
*
@stripe
did 21 investments in 2021
*
@coinbase
/ Coinbase Ventures did 138