Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然 @amanda_hsiao Twitter profile | Pikagi

Pikagi

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

@amanda_hsiao

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China Senior Analyst @CrisisGroup | Formerly @hdcentre | Tweets about China's foreign policy, U.S.-China, South China Sea, Taiwan, etc.

https://t.co/nziv9ivC4O

Joined September 2009

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

1 year

We @CrisisGroup have a new report on Taiwan out today❗ A lot of the discourse around preventing war over Taiwan has been focused on the military piece of the equation. We look at the other piece - the political. Our takeaways 🧵 : 1/

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Preventing War in the Taiwan Strait | Crisis Group

The danger of armed confrontation over Taiwan is growing, raising the spectre of a direct conflict between China and the U.S. that would have severe global repercussions. Managing this risk will...

www.crisisgroup.org

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

A quick look at China's immediate responses to Speaker Pelosi's arrival in Taiwan. 1. The language used in the statements is fairly typical--not particularly inflammatory--and continues to emphasize that time is "firmly in our hands" wrt Taiwan. This is Beijing's way of .. 1/

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Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

3 years

Chinese officials are signaling a possible policy shift on Taiwan which may be unveiled at the 20th Party Congress. 1/

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Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Prelim thoughts: China’s new Taiwan White Paper While basic principles to CH’s approach on TW are same, details suggest CH's “One Country Two Systems” may involve less political autonomy for TW than before, making an untenable political proposition even more untenable for TW 1/

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Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Aug 5 Chinese countermeasures for Pelosi visit to TW - More median line crossings - Pelosi sanctioned - US-China exchanges cut - Shaping narrative for domestic and external audiences 1/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

signaling confidence over the TW issue, and suggests they are not in a hurry to "reunify." 2. Mil responses appear much more escalatory, the announced Aug 4-7 exercises seem to extend into TW's territorial waters and maybe even internal waters credit to @duandang @Nrg8000 2/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

11 months

Our new @CrisisGroup report on the China-India border dispute is out today! One aspect we look into is the logic behind China's decision to escalate along the disputed border in 2020, in ways that mirror 🇨🇳's approach w the Philippines in the SCS and Taiwan 1/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Gen. Milley orders a review of all interactions between the U.S. and Chinese militaries in the last five years in the SCS and beyond, following recent reports from the U.S., Australia, and Canada of dangerous aerial intercepts by the PLA

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Gen. Milley orders staff to gather info on every interaction between Chinese and U.S. militaries...

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs ordered the review as the number of close encounters between Chinese and U.S. ships and planes grows, NBC News reports.

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

U.S. strategy on China has shifted from "compete, cooperate, and confront" to "invest, align, and compete," an approach that prioritizes shaping the strategic environment that China operates in over and above engaging China itself.

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

3 years

The party appears to be using a new phrase to describe its Taiwan policy - the Party’s Overall Strategy for Solving the Taiwan Issue in the New Era (新时代党解决台湾问题的总体方略). This expression appeared in the Sixth Plenum Resolution in November 2021. 2/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

This is likely just the beginning of a series of countermeasures from Beijing. For more on the context and calculations of the key actors see our latest: 11/

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Avoiding the Next Taiwan Strait Crisis | Crisis Group

Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, is planning a visit to Taiwan in early August. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Amanda Hsiao identifies steps the U.S. and China can...

www.crisisgroup.org

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

The MFA statement says Pelosi's visit "in any form and for any reason is an escalation of official exchanges between the U.S. and Taiwan and a major political provocation." 3/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

3 years

The policy content of this new phrase remains to be seen, but suggests Beijing wants to show it is taking the initiative on Taiwan in the face of what it sees as growing obstacles to its goal of reunification. 5/

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Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

- Continues to place responsibility on the U.S. executive branch to prevent the visit - Taiwan authorities are pushing for "incremental Taiwan independence" 4/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

More significant part of Biden's 60 min interview is his view that "TW makes their own judgments about their independence." Long-standing policy is that the US does not support TW independence and is opposed to unilateral changes from either side.

Biden tells 60 Minutes U.S. troops would defend Taiwan, but White House says this is not official...

After the 60 Minutes interview, a White House official said U.S. policy on Taiwan has not changed.

www.cbsnews.com

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Aug 4 China’s countermeasures to Pelosi’s visit -Missile tests, median line crossings, drones -More DDos attacks on TW websites -Taiwanese citizen arrested in China on pro-independence charges -TAO calls out TW rep to US Hsiao Bi-khim 1/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

and with the Biden administration .. - Attracting allies and forming a gang to play the TW card against China - Attacking UN Resolution 2758 - Spreading the "fallacy" that Taiwan's status is unsettled - Internationalization of the TW problem 6/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Here's a great overlay of the area where the announced exercises will take place from @duandang as compared with the ones that took place in 1996 in the last crisis. Coordinates here: 9/

@duandang

Duan Dang

2 years

China's military exercises around Taiwan in August 2022 and March 1996 (Third Taiwan Strait crisis). This time, some exercise areas overlap with Taiwan's territorial waters, an apparent escalation.

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Taiwan Affairs Office statement is where we find language that the "time and trend of realizing the reunification of the motherland are always firmly in our hands." Also lists grievances it has with Congress (passing many "negative" Taiwan bills) 5/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Earlier in the day there was: - announcement of SU-35 jets crossing the TW Strait that TW denied - ban of 100 TW food products - cyber attacks on TW govt websites 10/

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Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

11 months

Two notables from China’s readout on Xi-Biden mtg as addtl info & statements trickle out: 1) Military communications are resuming – very positive 2) Section on what 🇨🇳 seeks from 🇺🇸 on Taiwan is more concrete, less fire and fury 1/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

3 years

Politburo Standing Committee member Wang Yang used this phrase yesterday at the annual Taiwan Work Conference. Notably, he did not reference the “one-China principle” in his speech and emphasized risks and challenges in the TW Strait situation. 3/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Eastern Theater Command says PLA will conduct joint air and sea exercises to the north, southwest, and southeast of Taiwan, as well as conduct long-range live fire tests in the Strait, and regular missile tests to the east 常导火力试射 (?) 8/

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Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

1 year

NATO to open Japan office, deepening Indo-Pacific engagement via @NikkeiAsia

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

3 years

Former dep. director of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office Sun Yafu recently said that Beijing would put forward new policy decisions and arrangements 新的决策部署 and new propositions 新主张 on Taiwan at the 20th Party Congress. 4/

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孫亞夫：中共二十大將提出對台灣工作「新決策部署、新主張」-風傳媒

中國主管海峽兩岸事務的一位高官表示，「九二共識」這一頁是翻不過去的。中共今年二十大將做出對台工作新的決策部署，提出一些新的主張，會對推動對台工作、對台海形勢產生積極影響。[啟動LINE推播]每日重大新聞通知海協會副會長孫亞夫元月8日在接受中央廣播電視總台旗下的一個新媒體平台「看台

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Defense ministry says the PLA will "launch a series of targeted military operations to counter" the actions of the U.S. and the DPP authorities in TW 7/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

3 years

In this @CrisisGroup Q&A on the recent spike in China's military activities around Taiwan, I reflect on what Beijing hopes to achieve through its military signaling, and whether this tactic has paid off. 🧵 1/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Beijing's moderated response to the Tsai-McCarthy mtg so far suggests that it recognizes the change of venue to the U.S. and relatively low-profile nature of Tsai's visit as the compromise it was intended to be. Beijing is likely also wary of the awkward position... 1/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

This shows confidence if the CCP believes itself to be on the rise long-term. However, if it feels it is peaking, then this line could also suggest anxiety. Good recent piece from @ryanl_hass on this 14/

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Implications for Taiwan of the divergence in narratives on China’s future

Ryan Hass analyzes how the split-screen division in how China sees itself and how others see China carries several important implications, with such a division in interpretation of events providing...

www.brookings.edu

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Taiwan extends compulsory military service from 4 months to 1 yr, overhauls training (incl operating portable anti-tank, anti-air weapons), in an important step towards defense reform "Only by preparing for war can we avoid war" Tsai's full speech 👇

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

In this Q&A, we outline some of the specific risks of a trip by Speaker Pelosi to Taiwan, and the crisis prevention steps that can be taken 1/

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Avoiding the Next Taiwan Strait Crisis | Crisis Group

Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, is planning a visit to Taiwan in early August. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Amanda Hsiao identifies steps the U.S. and China can...

www.crisisgroup.org

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Continuing with this given interest Aug 3 announced responses from Beijing to Pelosi's visit included: - Wang Yi statement - Commentaries from PLA and in People’s Daily - Taiwan Affairs Office calls out Tsai directly - Addtl economic sanctions 12/

@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

A quick look at China's immediate responses to Speaker Pelosi's arrival in Taiwan. 1. The language used in the statements is fairly typical--not particularly inflammatory--and continues to emphasize that time is "firmly in our hands" wrt Taiwan. This is Beijing's way of .. 1/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Our piece on the foreign policy implications of the 20th Party Congress report, w discussion of China’s darker reading of its external environment, its foreign and defense policy objectives, and approach to Taiwan. With @Kwekii

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The Foreign Policy Implications of China’s Twentieth Party Congress | Crisis Group

China’s ruling Communist Party is holding its twentieth Party Congress, where it has outlined its development strategy and will announce its leadership for the next five years. In this Q&A, Crisis...

www.crisisgroup.org

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Thanks @cnni for having me on to discuss the risks of Pelosi's potential visit to Taiwan. Yesterday's Xi-Biden call was a positive first step toward preventing a crisis but Washington and Beijing can do more ... Stay tuned for more recs

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

10 months

Significant - on the eve of TW's elections, Beijing has taken the risky move of resuming tariffs on 12 out of the 539 TW exports to China designated to be tariff-free under ECFA. By adopting a partial suspension rather than a complete one, Beijing is signaling to TW that it ...

@globaltimesnews

Global Times

@globaltimesnews

10 months

Starting from January 1, 2024, the tariff rates under ECFA (Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement) between Chinese mainland and Taiwan will no longer apply to the importation of 12 products from the Taiwan island, including propylene and ortho-xylene, the Customs Tariff

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Very interesting line: “Never before have we been so close to, confident in, and capable of achieving the goal of national rejuvenation. The same is true when it comes to our goal of complete national reunification” 13/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

2. Taiwan – Continuing to create wedge btwn DPP/ ”secessionists” and the rest of TW — sticks for the former, carrots for the latter. Language around “Two Systems” no longer says Beijing will not send troops and administrative personnel to Taiwan, language that existed before 4/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Paper is directed at multiple audiences w diff goals: 1. Domestic - Burnishing XJP’s legacy on TW ahead of 20PC to strengthen his political position; the publication of this paper might have been moved up due to Pelosi’s visit; likely originally targeted for 20PC 3/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

3. External - Rhetoric emphasizing CCP’s efforts to peacefully resolve the issue w TW, historic roots of its claims of sovereignty over TW, and “intl consensus” around OCP and UN Res 2758 are all continuing attempts to drive wedge between pro-TW US/ Western countries and... 5/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Aug 6-7 Chinese countermeasures for Pelosi’s visit to TW Last update, barring major developments - Median line activity - Simulated blockade and attack N, S, E of TW - Drones, ADIZ - CH insists world on its side 1/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

A newly empowered Xi has chosen to use the political strength he has consolidated at home to begin to stabilize the U.S.-China relationship, showing more flexibility than previously. Plenty of differences remain, but this was a positive step. 1/

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Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Skipping over history section except to say this paper cements critical role that UN Res 2758 plays in CH’s narrative on TW which increasingly frames the OCP as part of intl law & order (Qin Gang oped) For more see @BonnieGlaser @jessicadrun paper 7/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

1 year

The Tsai-McCarthy mtg and China’s military response were damaging to peace and stability. But, the episode could have played out in worse ways. This time, all three tried to reduce the level of provocation of their actions. Our analysis 👇

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Assessing the Implications of the Taiwanese President’s Trip to the U.S. | Crisis Group

A visit by Taiwan’s leader to the U.S. brought swift condemnation from China, which stepped up its military activities in the strait separating the mainland from the island. In this Q&A, Crisis Group...

www.crisisgroup.org

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

... countries that tend to view the Pelosi episode as unnecessarily risky and who have no interest in taking a stance on the TW issue at the cost of their econ relationship with CH. 6/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

This is a significant policy document--there will certainly be plenty more details that will be unpacked over the next few weeks. 22/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Chinese readout of Xi-Putin mtg appears partly an effort to address domestic criticism of Xi's decision to align so closely with Russia, by showing more explicitly what China is getting out of it -- Russian strategic alignment on TW -- on eve of 20 PC

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

TW says total 68 PLA aircraft + 13 vessels around the TW Strait Of those, 10 Chinese navy ships and 20 military aircraft crossed median line in morning, accd to Reuters MND: So far, no CH statement on median line activities 2/

@MoNDefense

國防部 Ministry of National Defense, ROC(Taiwan) 🇹🇼

2 years

PLA dispatched 68 aircraft and 13 vessels until 17:00 (UTC+8) for the activities around Taiwan Strait, part of which had crossed the median line and jeopardized the status quo of the strait.

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

3 years

New commentary from my colleagues and I that looks at national responses--including China's--to the Ukraine crisis. On China: Beijing’s instinct is to understand the Ukraine crisis largely through the lens of its confrontation with Washington. 1/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Basic principles incl: 1. Peaceful reunification remains Beijing’s preference, use of force is still an option they reserve 2. One China Principle (OCP) 3. One Country Two Systems (OCTS) 2/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Again, how the optics of Pelosi's visit are managed is critical to crisis management in this moment. The more publicity and unnecessary leaks from officials about her itinerary and what will or will not happen will contribute to tensions, short and long-term in the TW Strait

@Dimi

Demetri

2 years

Pelosi will meet President Tsai Ing-wen in Taiwan on Wednesday. 🇹🇼👇

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Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Reunification “only way to avoid risk of TW being invaded & occupied again by foreign countries, to foil attempts of external forces to contain CH" = It's about CH's rise, not only natl humiliation, but also strategic interests, ie breaking thru 1st island-chain 12/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

9 months

Hou has conceded the race in Taiwan's presidential elections. The DPP has won a historic third consecutive term. However, Lai is set to win with only 40% of the vote. Join me on BBC at 9 pm Taiwan time for post-election analysis

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BBC World Service - Newshour

Interviews, news and analysis of the day's global events.

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

1993 paper said "high-degree of autonomy" incl: - administrative, legislative, independent judicial, final adjudication rights - autonomy over party, govt, mil, econ, financial matters - CH will not send troops or govt personnel - Unofficial exchanges w foreign govts ok 19/

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Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Each leader, Mao to Hu, gets one para on their achievements, Xi’s section is a bit longer Becomes clearer the “overall policy for resolving the Taiwan question in the new era” announced Nov 2021 partly about burnishing Xi’s legacy on TW by giving his TW policies a rebranding 9/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Sun Yafu, former dep dir of TW Affairs Office in Aug 12 interview tries to manage domestic expectations: "Even if we have the ability to militarily block and control Taiwan, we will still work hard to strive for peaceful reunification" h/t @niubi 1/

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Beijing still wants peaceful unification with Taiwan, says ex-official

Former deputy of Taiwan Affairs Office tells state-owned magazine that Beijing has not ‘speeded up’ the timetable for unification since Nancy Pelosi’s visit.

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

3 years

Check out the latest episode of @CrisisGroup Hold Your Fire, where @atwoodr and I discuss how China sees the Biden admin and the latest on Taiwan👇

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Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Lack of details on "Two Systems," compared with 1993 2000 papers suggest an arrangement that might involve less political and legal autonomy for TW 2022 white paper says TW would maintain “current social system” and “high degree of autonomy." 17/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

1 year

Readout from 🇨🇳 Vice FM Ma and 🇷🇺 Deputy FM Rudenko mtg: "[I]t is necessary to... communicate and synchronize in a timely manner, ensure the stable and long-term relationship btwn the two countries, and safeguard the common interests of both sides"

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Communist Party has worked hard to solve the Taiwan question peacefully, incl by promoting X-Strait dialogue, giving TWnese in China preferential treatment, and delivering concrete $$ benefits 8/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Three batches of four drones entered waters off of Lieyu on Kinmen Island and near Beiding Island Aug 4 night; TW fired flares Missed this before– TW said Aug 2 cyberattacks on govt bodies was 23x higher than previous record 5/

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唐鳳：公務機關2日遭23倍網路攻擊皆及時處理 | 政治 | 中央社 CNA

行政院政務委員唐鳳今天表示，昨天各公務機關受到網路攻擊，總流量超過過去單日最高攻擊量約23倍，但機關多能及時發現與處理。

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Calls out the DPP for adopting a “separatist stance” for refusing to recognize OCP, distorting & denying 92 Consensus, and the Tsai administration’s delicately worded phrase for X-Strait relations 互不隸屬 meaning that neither is subordinate to the other. (This is not new) 15/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

The U.S. also apparently now assesses China to have both the "intent" and "power" to reshape the international order--a shift from the Mar 2021 Interim Natl Security Guidance, which assessed China was "the only competitor potentially capable" of challenging the existing order.

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

1 year

A preview of our new report on Taiwan, coming online in a few hours...

@tchau01

Thompson Chau

1 year

Taiwan’s presidential election presents “a window of opportunity” to lower rising tensions, @CrisisGroup said in a report. It provided recommendations on how China and Lai Ching-te (if he wins) can seek to resume dialogue.

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Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Thanks @nytimes for incl my views: “In canceling all these exchanges..Beijing is really pulling away the last strings in an already threadbare relationship...It shows that there is little left...that Beijing can use to register its protests over TW.”

China Sends Ships and Planes Toward Taiwan, Defying Rising Criticism (Published 2022)

Beijing also halted talks with the United States on the military, climate change and other issues, sending ties between the two powers into a deeper chill.

www.nytimes.com

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

...a disproportionate response would put Ma, Macron, and von der Leyen in. All of them are currently in China. The system has issued a slew of par-for-the-course statements condemning the mtg. 2/

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Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

2002 paper said: -CH will not send its troops or govt personnel -Unofficial exchanges w foreign govts ok 20/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

a “deterrent exercise” - suggests there were nuclear subs. Also claims CH mil presence forced USS Reagan to retreat and Pelosi’s plane to detour Speaking of, anyone seen Shandong aircraft carrier? 7/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

It has been a good week for Chinese diplomacy Honduras will switch ties from Taiwan to China. This will be the ninth diplomatic ally that China has taken from Taiwan since 2016, over half them from Latin America and the Caribbean, the U.S.'s backyard.

Honduras to switch ties from Taiwan to China, says president

Xiomara Castro’s move would leave Taiwan with formal diplomatic relations with only 13 countries

www.theguardian.com

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

3 years

Is this tactic working for Beijing? The message of Beijing’s ire has certainly been received. But this show of mil power is more likely to strengthen arguments of the need to reduce Taiwan’s int'l isolation and strengthen its defenses—exactly what Beijing does not want… 8/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

E Theater Command says continued actual combat joint exercises in the sea and air spaces N, SW, and E of Taiwan Says on Aug 4 conducted over 100 sorties, incld fighter jets, bombers, early warning aircraft, tankers and... 3/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

White House statement on Xi-Biden meeting is out. What is notable: 1) Looks like a series of working-level dialogues will resume on developing principles on managing competition and transnational challenges (incl climate change and the global economy).

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Readout of President Joe Biden’s Meeting with President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of...

President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. met on November 14 with President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), in Bali, Indonesia. The two

www.whitehouse.gov

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

If this is true, it shows how Beijing can use Pelosi’s visit to further other objectives, expanding and normalizing its military and paramilitary presence in the Taiwan Strait, including on the Taiwan side. Change the status quo using a crisis, just as in 2012 Senkaku crisis

@YimouLee

Yimou Lee

2 years

#TAIWAN SOURCE BRIEFED ON THE MATTER: ABOUT 10 CHINESE NAVY SHIPS TEMPORARILY CROSSED TAIWAN STRAIT MEDIAN LINE AND REMAIN CLOSE IN THE AREA FROM WED NIGHT TO THUR MIDDAY

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Party officialdom talks about the policy as having begun in the 18th PC, when Xi took power, even though it was not announced till Nov 2021. Xi’s TW policy is outlined in five parts, he is credited with adding to “theory on natl reunification”: 10/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

9 months

A few thoughts on China's potential responses to Taiwan's elections. A Lai win will produce the most tensions in the near term & more pressures are likely. But tensions may also follow a Hou win, further down the line. Many thanks to @WarOnTheRocks

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A Post-Election Risk Assessment for the Taiwan Strait - War on the Rocks

On Jan. 13, Taiwan will elect a new government whose decision-making will play an important role in shaping cross-strait dynamics for the next four years.

warontherocks.com

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

For more on how an unintended collision could quickly escalate into a larger crisis, and the steps that Washington and Beijing should take to mitigate these risks, see our report on U.S.-China crisis management:

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Risky Competition: Strengthening U.S.-China Crisis Management | Crisis Group

As their strategic rivalry grows, China and the U.S. are increasingly operating in close proximity in the Asia Pacific. An accident or misinterpreted signal could set off a wider confrontation. The...

www.crisisgroup.org

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Beijing is actively boosting an image of itself as a peacemaker and therefore a credible alternative to U.S. leadership But the Ukraine-Russia context is much less straightforward than the Saudi-Iran one, where the two parties were already interested in repairing relations

@WSJ

The Wall Street Journal

2 years

Chinese leader Xi Jinping plans to speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for the first time since the start of the Ukraine war

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Managing domestic sentiment State media trots out mil experts to highlight how unprecedented China’s response is; first time that drills are so closes to TW, encircles TW, missile tests in E, missile fired across TW, aircraft carrier formation conducted... 6/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Managing external narrative - Amb Qin Gang op-ed makes bold claim that “one-China principle is part of the postwar international order and has become a general international consensus” 10/

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Opinion | Chinese ambassador: Why China objects to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan

These are extremely irresponsible, provocative and dangerous moves.

www.washingtonpost.com

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

sent more than 10 destroyers and navy escorts that carried out joint closure and control operations in the waters around Taiwan and swept missile test areas 4/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

In a new @CrisisGroup report, we look at the risk of an unintended collision or misinterpreted signal in the U.S.-China relationship and outline ways the two sides can strengthen existing crisis management mechanisms. 1/

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Risky Competition: Strengthening U.S.-China Crisis Management | Crisis Group

As their strategic rivalry grows, China and the U.S. are increasingly operating in close proximity in the Asia Pacific. An accident or misinterpreted signal could set off a wider confrontation. The...

www.crisisgroup.org

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

“External forces are using TW as a pawn to undermine China’s development and progress, and obstruct the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” = U.S. also doesn’t care about TW, they’re using the issue to contain us (Also not new) 16/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

MFA Hua Chunying links Pelosi’s visit to TW to US mil interventions in Yugoslavia, Libya, Iraq, Syria, and very distastefully says US treating sovereign countries like a George Floyd that can be killed through kneeling 11/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

3 years

The U.S. continues to uphold the one-China policy, but its increasing unofficial cooperation w TW and encouragement to other govts to do the same is contributing to incremental changes to the status quo. For more 👇 10/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Continues to emphasize the economic benefits of reunification – “backed up by the vast mainland market TW’s economy will enjoy broader prospects, become more competitive…” 21/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

- Way of life “fully respected”; private property, religious beliefs, lawful rights & interests of ppl "fully protected” - Can have econ and cultural exchanges w foreign govts 18/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

-Promoting China’s rejuvenation & peaceful reunification -Seeking innovation in a “Two Systems solution” -Abiding by OCP -Integrating cross-straits development -Forging X-Strait ppl to ppl ties 11/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

- G7 countries summoned in Beijing for a berating, statement for Canada as ex: - 钧声in PLA Daily: Focuses on blaming Taiwan, calls Tsai out directly, for collusion w US, insisting on Pelosi going to TW 12/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Thanks @ConvSix for having me on to discuss Sec of State Blinken's speech on China and what it means for the state of U.S.-China relations!

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

10 months

For those in Taipei - join us next Wed to talk about Taiwan's Jan 13 elections👇

@tchau01

Thompson Chau

10 months

On Dec 20 @TaiwanFCC will organise a panel discussion “ #Taiwan ’s presidential race, the most consequential election in Asia - a curtain raiser”. We’ll be joined by @amanda_hsiao , @wenliunyc & @chiaoning_su , & discuss what’s at stake + possible scenarios. Partnering with @atj_tw .

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Shandong aircraft carrier is operating E of TW Law enforcement vessels are patrolling in the TW Strait TW warned China may forcibly inspect TW commercial ships. But, doing so would undercut Beijing's current objective - to push cross-strait exchange ahead of elections 3/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

& cooperation in repat. of illegal immigrants, criminal/legal, transnational crimes, drug control, and climate change * Stopping DPCT and MMCA is extremely concerning given increase in dangerous encounters 9/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Countermeasures against US begin - Pelosi and immediate fam sanctioned -Cancellation of US-China exchanges, including phone call between theater command leaders, Defense Policy Coordination Talks, Maritime Military Consultative Agreement talks ... 8/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Next update Aug 7 13/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

1 year

TW military expert Chieh Chung says new PLA flight paths around median line--in which PLA planes fly along the east side of the line for a distance before returning--increases risk of an unintended accident and represents a new form of lawfare

揭仲專欄：共軍擾台新模式啟動台海新法律戰-風傳媒

近日共軍在台灣周邊的動作頻頻。其中在9月10日，共軍軍機越過海峽中線的過程，不僅開啟擾台的新模式，使中線附近空域的軍事風險明顯升高，更代表中共動用共軍在台灣海峽展開新一波法律戰。9月10日當天，共軍共派出3批、6架次的殲-16戰鬥機穿越中線。乍看之下，這些行動在去年8月的「圍台軍

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Taiwan draws a line in the sand, saying its definition of "first strike" now includes flights by Chinese aircraft and drones into its territorial airspace. In the past, an attack by artillery shells or missiles was considered a "first strike."

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Taiwan defines Chinese military flights into airspace as '1st strike' | Taiwan News | Oct. 5, 2022...

www.taiwannews.com.tw

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

11 months

For more on the 🇨🇳 - 🇮🇳 border dispute, historical context, and 🇮🇳's perspectives, check out our new report. 13/

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Thin Ice in the Himalayas: Handling the India-China Border Dispute | Crisis Group

Frictions along the India-China frontier have heated up following a burst of fighting in 2020, the first in decades. The danger of more will lurk as long as the countries disagree over where the line...

www.crisisgroup.org

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

3 years

This suggests China has limited tools when responding to a Biden admin TW policy that resembles a diplomatic version of China’s own gray zone tactics. 9/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

2 years

Thanks Bloomberg for having me on to discuss Pelosi's visit to Taiwan What Will Taiwan Do After Pelosi's Visit?

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What Will Taiwan Do After Pelosi's Visit?

Amanda Hsiao, Senior China Analyst at Crisis Group, discusses the geopolitical impacts of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan. She speaks with Yvonne Man and David Ingles on "Bloomberg...

www.bloomberg.com

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

11 months

Previous leaders statements expounded on 🇨🇳's TW position *at length.* This time, we have a very brief mention with specific asks of the US: - Match its rhetorical non-support to TW independence with actions - Stop arming TW - *Support* peaceful unification 2/

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@amanda_hsiao

Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然

11 months

2. China wants to see if it can move the needle on how Washington interprets & talks about its commitments to Beijing on TW. The current context makes it impossible - and inadvisable - for the U.S. to say it *supports* peaceful unification. This would be a major shift in US..4/

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