Our graphics to illustrate the potential benefits and potential harms of the AstraZeneca vaccine as announced by the MHRA this afternoon.
Benefits accrued over 16 weeks, at three different levels of exposure to the virus.
Calling all science/health journalists, press officers and those trying to communicate health research:
Delighted to announce the launch of RealRisk,
@d_spiegel
and the Winton Centre's tool to help you get your numbers across clearly and accurately.
How much difference does it make to open the windows?
Wear a mask?
What if we're eating?
Questions we've all been asking about covid - hoping to help answer them with this new tool:
@d_spiegel
@CathNoakes
@harryrutter
@will_s_t
Avoidance of ICU admission was chosen as a benefit comparator because the potential harms being illustrated are equally severe.
Of course for every one of these potential ICU admissions there are many many people who might have had hospitalisation or long COVID.
Here are newly updated graphics from us for the latest data from the UK's
@MHRAgovuk
on blood clots and the AZ vaccine.
Full info is at
There are important notes on the site, which I'll also thread here.
Some musings from me on risk perception/communication on BMJ blog today.
We throw numbers around when talking about health risks - they’re a way of precisely defining a concept. But it’s like communicating colour through hexademical codes or wavelengths…
I am unbelievably excited to be given this opportunity. I applied for it (and anyone can: ) because it’s a chance to work in public service, whilst not being at the mercy of party politics.
On the other side, the harms illustrated are only the blood clots currently being monitored.
Severe allergic reactions (anaphylaxis) are too rare with the AZ vaccine in the UK to illustrate - that could be because precautions are being taken for those with allergies.
We’ve got a comment in Nature today on why science needs good ‘evidence communication’ and not the typical rules of rhetoric, designed to persuade rather than inform:
@d_spiegel
@Sander_vdLinden
@MarteauTM
A typical results letter coming back from medical genetic testing is very difficult to understand - and yet this kind of testing is set to become routine within the NHS and worldwide... so we set out to come up with a results template that can be understood by all...
Proudly presenting RealRisk Light, courtesy of
@d_spiegel
and
@grumplet
.
RealRisk () is our online tool to help communicate the results reported in academic papers in a meaningful way. RealRisk Light is our new add-on with more maths and fewer words!
What happens when you tell people the quality of the evidence underlying a health claim?
In short: it matters!
In fact, unless stated otherwise people seem to behave as if quality were high – which raises qs about not stating when quality is low.
.
Preprint out – our work on communicating personal risks from COVID-19:
In summary, for those developing personal risk calculators:
1) Are you trying to change behaviour or simply inform people? It changes your communication approach. UK public opinion:
Narratives – stories – can be very persuasive. But they can also help people take in information. So can you use them if you want to inform but not persuade? We did an experiment to find out, now published:
@scicomguy
@crschneider3
@lisa_tanase
We have a new Open Access paper out describing how we worked with non-specialist clinicians and patients as well as geneticists in order to develop a template for genetic and genomic test reports that is easily understood by everyone…
(
@_gfarmer
@d_spiegel
@GemmaChand
)
How certain do people think a negative (or positive) COVID test result is? Is that affected by the info used to explain test results?
We tested info from NHS, CDC, and New Zealand’s page about test uncertainty against people who got no information…
A new course from the Winton Centre, on risk communication in public health!
Freely available at
Should take less than 2hrs, and there's a certificate on completion.
We hope it's useful!
(Huge kudos to
@mc_climent
who put it together)
We have a new (Open Access) paper out testing the effects of communicating uncertainty about facts and figures on the public’s trust.
Being transparent about uncertainty doesn’t necessarily lose you trust!
Fancy working with us at the University of Cambridge on communicating earthquake risk? Got language skills, and a degree in psychology or seismology?
Apply now!
An interesting job making a real difference to lives, and getting to work with
@d_spiegel
...
Proud to announce that a demo version of Octopus, the new way of publishing scientific work (so much needed right now) is ready for testing. DUMMY DATA ONLY in it!
Please give feedback via the link in the footer or, better, via:
Don't know a thing about genetics?! 🤔🧬
We need YOUR HELP to take part in a 1hr long interview to improve genetic test reports.
In return you will receive a £10 gift voucher
Email glr29
@cam
.ac.uk to take part, or see below for further details. Pls RT.
#Genetics
#Genomics
Not only did they fix it, they also sorted other minor annoyances in the car without mentioning them, MOTed it for me, had it ready, demisted and warmed for me when I got the train up to collect it, and then emailed me to make sure I'd got home OK! AUTOPOINT KNUTSFORD are heroes!
It's the last few days to apply to come and work with us! If you've enjoyed our evidence communication around COVID and vaccines, come and join our team. We aim for diversity of opinions, skills and backgrounds so if you share our aims, apply!
Legal professionals: how well can you handle forensic evidence and probabilities in court? Try our new quick quiz - and challenge your colleagues...
(One for you,
@BarristerSecret
? And yes, we know we've used a picture of a gavel...We're 'international')
It takes you step-by-step through identifying the key numbers you need and then does the calculations for you to produce clear absolute risks and risk differences - and produces sentences and graphics that you can use (or send to others via a personalised URL), eg:
@AdamRutherford
: just listened to your and
@FryRsquared
's latest Curious Cases on water, and I am deeply disappointed that you labelled Hannah 'anthropomorphic' for describing a water molecule as having bunny ears, instead of using the correct term of 'lagomorphic'...🐰
So pleased to see EasyRead versions of our latest decision aids for the NHS now out.
@lfinikarides
and
@luna9design
in particular worked v closely with EasyRead users to ensure that they now have support to take part in decisions about their own health.
So glad that Octopus is now in a collaboration with Royal Society Open Science. I vividly remember nervously pitching Octopus to a huge room at The Royal Society, and that feeling when people were overwhelmingly enthusiastic about the idea. Now it's a reality!
Royal Society Open Science is excited to announce a new collaboration with the research and publishing service Octopus
@science_octopus
. Senior Publishing Editor Andrew Dunn tells us more:
@DavidJuurlink
@RichardLehman1
This nice figure from Nature 2015 shows how many people (in red) would need to be taking each drug for one person (in blue) to benefit. None of them are close to 1:1 (so none 'benefit the majority'). Of course there are almost certainly a few drugs that would, but 'most' don't.
A couple of weeks ago my car had an issue and I had to pull over on a motorway hard shoulder. I got it off to the nearest town - Knutsford. I knew no one there. I phoned around garages and only one did not throw their hands up bout it being a hybrid. I left it with them...
The new PREDICT algorithm for women with breast cancer coming very soon to the online web tool... several years in the making from lots of dedicated people (like Paul and Isabelle) and with help from patients and clinicians.
How medical education is letting down doctors (and their patients) when it comes to how to interpret and communicate numbers: a new blog and podcast from María del Carmen Climént Palmer at the Winton Centre:
One of five new NHS decision aids released today - the result of much work by a lot of people (including
@luna9design
and led by
@lfinikarides
). We very much hope they help people with difficult health decisions to make.
@FryRsquared
Aged 11 I did a school project on endangered species. I illustrated it with a picture of a chimpanzee. My biology teacher said 'Why use a picture of a monkey - monkeys aren't endangered?' I was gobsmacked. Still am.
Are you a statistician, modeller, epidemiologist, virologist, clinician? How confident are you in your predictions for COVID-19 in the UK? Could you take 5mins to do our quick study? Please RT.
@d_spiegel
Looking for my next job is depressing. 'Communication' is used as a synonym for 'marketing'.
Communicators are usually asked to demonstrate their 'persuasiveness'.
Before I worked at the Winton Centre I probably wouldn't have noticed. Now I do.
I want to inform, not persuade!
@TomChivers
Perfect opportunity for me to say: journalists reporting on health... test yourself on the Winton Centre's new quick quiz to see how much you understand the reporting of evidence:
Expecting full marks from you,
@TomChivers
!
Every year there are 2 appointments like this: not rewards for things done already but people entrusted to do good work in the future. Thank you to the Appointments Commission for the trust they have placed in me. I will do my utmost to repay it.
We have created a graphic using the data from Italy on the potential harms and benefits of the AZ COVID-19 vaccine for
@chiara_sabelli
(who did some excellent stats-finding!)
Many thanks to
@HardingProf
for crunching the numbers.
Methodology here:
Il Winton Centre for Risk & Evidence Communication di Cambridge ha elaborato i dati
@istsupsan
e
@ema_news
per comparare benefici e danni di
#AstraZeneca
per l’Italia. Con incidenza attuale, bilancio a favore del
#vaccino
per over 30. Ne scrivo qui🧵(1/11)
What effect does providing people with transparent information about the potential benefits and harms of vaccines have? Our latest research published today
Tldr: helps them feel more informed, doesn't change decision
@SciComGuy
@Sander_vdLinden
@MarteauTM
But men do have poorer outcomes from COVID-19 than women - a difference that particularly grows with age. So we've made a couple of graphics showing the difference in benefits for men and women separately.
Calling programmers who want to work on something interesting and life-changing for patients!
We're making our risk comms tools like (used 30,000 times per month) into an Open Source generic tool.
Come and help us!
Pls RT
@kakape
@alokjha
We are trying to portray as many as possible of those dimensions here:
Please do feel free to use these resources in your reporting. We have them translated into French, German, Italian and Spanish (UK data still) if it is helpful.
Another chance to come and work with us! We're looking for a graduate in behavioural science/psychology with good quantitative skills and happy to do qualitative work too, for a year, from September.
How best to communicate evidence and numbers?
Come along to our virtual launch. Virtual means no free drinks I’m afraid but on the plus side you can hear why UKRI, UKRN, JISC and others think Octopus worth your attention if you’re a researcher without travel and from the comfort of wherever you want to be...
I've just received an email pretending to be from
@NHSuk
inviting me for a COVID vaccination because "The NHS is performing selections for coronavirus vaccination on the basis of family genetics and medical history". It is not.
If you get an email like this do not click the link
Reading people's answers when we asked them (worldwide) WHY they trusted/distrusted certain sources of information about COVID has been fascinating. I love the insights more qualitative data gives to quantitative data.
Percived motive is key to the level of trust.
🇯🇵 In Japan, trust in all sources of information has been low
🇬🇧 In the UK, trust in the NHS has been very high
🇨🇳 In China, trust in social media has been high
Read more about
@alex_freeman
's research:
Sign in the University of Cambridge department of theoretical physics.
Makes me suspect gravitational waves shouldn’t have been quite so difficult for physicists to find as they made out.
Very proud to see my
#guerillagardening
of wildflower seeds coming into bloom on the otherwise grim local roundabout.
Digging up for new pipes created bare soil that I couldn’t resist! You can’t tell from these photos that it is surrounded by traffic and concrete.
Our paper describing the work on this report form is published (fully Open Access) today here:
(work by Gabe Recchia, Antonia Chiappi, Lucy Raymond and
@GemmaChand
)
The template should be ready for clinical use - do get in touch if you want to know more.
The incredible
@mc_climent
has just finished giving another 6-hour workshop on risk communication in Spanish to over 100 people. She does this regularly: sometimes at weekends, sometimes at 4am her time, and for free. We at the Winton Centre are very proud and in awe!
@d_spiegel
The Predict:Prostate tool () is now updated with new data on the possible harms of the different treatment options. You can now select how many years ahead you want to look. You can weigh these against the possible survival benefit that the site calculates.
Our most recent NHS Decision Aids are now available in Polish, Urdu, Bengali and Punjabi as well as EasyRead and English.
Increasing the number of people who are now supported to choose what's best for them...
@alf_collins
@AimeeRobson4
@sfinnikin
Thank you
@alex_freeman
for a brilliant talk on Octopus: a radical new approach to scientific publishing!
Recording:
Slides:
Check out this cool, illustrative example with
#COVID19
data!
RealRisk - the Winton web tool that allows you to translate numbers from health research papers into useful absolute risks and graphics that makes sense to people - has had its first upgrade... New graphics, confidence intervals etc:
And we need to accept that everyone can have a different perception of the same risk. It doesn’t mean they haven’t understood.
Which means it difficult to tell if we have communicated successfully, just as I can never tell what you ‘see’ when we look at the same colour
It's impossible to put into a few characters everything I'd like to say about
@DrMichaelMosley
: colleague, mentor, friend for decades. I just thought I'd share one memory. For the film 'Pain' from 'Pain, Pus & Poison', Michael agreed to take the 'truth drug' pentothal....
Med schools, if you're planning curricula, we have freely available eLearning courses in Shared Decision Making and Risk Communication. There are versions for primary care, peri-op, plastics, O&G and cancer genetics.
or SDM page of
Please try these decision aids, to help patients and doctors make treatment decisions together
and give feedback.
Alongside are our free e-learning courses:
for GPs
for ophthalmologists
...
In this new episode of the Research Talk podcast, creator of Octopus
@alex_freeman
talks about how the platform could positively disrupt research culture for the better. Listen here 🎙️
#OAWeek
@science_octopus
We at the Winton Centre are delighted that we now have two resident Knights, as
@HardingProf
is made Sir John in the birthday honours.
We hope that he and fellow Knight
@d_spiegel
put on a Winton Centre jousting contest.
Congratulations Prof Sir John Aston!
A nice piece about Octopus: why are so many researchers on the treadmill of publishing papers when they could be running in the outdoors - actually making strides to GO somewhere rather than simply going through a lot of activity and sweat to stay still?
The "Publish or Perish" culture is a treadmill that stops scientists from running in the park. A reform of the science publishing model is urgently needed-- which led Dr. Alex Freeman (
@alex_freeman
) to create Octopus as an alternative publishing platform.
The government’s daily briefings on
#Covid_19
are "not trustworthy communication of statistics" says Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter from the University of Cambridge
#Marr
Really delighted that a study which looked at whether helped men decide on their treatment options for prostate cancer has been published (and that it did!)
congrats David Thurtle!
(cc:
@paulpharoah
@d_spiegel
@mesotronium
@grumplet
)
Yep, I’m afraid I added to the traffic chaos outside Burford as people slowed down or were stopped in their tracks by the stunning sight of a wildflower meadow by the A40.
And it’s not even the first time I’ve stopped for it - it changes colour every week.
Wish there were more!
Very glad to be able to announce that Predict:Breast Cancer () is now available in both traditional and simplified Chinese. This hugely increases the number of patients who can now be helped with personalised treatment information
@paulpharoah
@d_spiegel
Is there someone who can read Ancient Greek for me? When going through a box of things my grandmother had kept I found - inside a dance card from when she first met my grandfather - a handwritten poem. She was studying Classics at Oxford at the time (1920s).
We have new data in from Germany, Italy, Spain, Mexico and Australia on how people perceive the risk of coronavirus and how they are responding to their governments' messages and policies. Summary blog:
Data will be in Open Source repository asap.
A lot of hard work here from Gabe and the team to produce better genetic test reports, which patients (and clinicians!) understand and find helpful.
The problem now - getting them into actual use in the medical system! Please RT to spread the word to someone who can get them used
1/7 It’s important people understand results they get from medical testing– like genetic testing. We’ve been using user-centred design (Lauren Capacchione,
@alex_freeman
, and
@acethecurious
) to build better genetic reports than those now in use by the NHS:
Delighted to announce a new version of the Predict:Breast Cancer website, used 30,000 per month worldwide to help women with breast cancer make shared decisions about their treatment, now in Spanish to reach thousands more women. Other languages to come...