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Adam Dorr Profile
Adam Dorr

@adam_dorr

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Environmental social scientist. Technology theorist. Director of Research at RethinkX. Optimist Prime.

Ann Arbor, MI
Joined February 2012
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
6 months
Just a reminder for those interested in both #Robotics and #Climate - I discuss the importance of #AI and robotics (the disruption of labor) and its implications for the environment in depth in my book. Will make more videos about this soon too.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
2 months
The Tesla protesting in Germany really is one of the most boneheaded, counterproductive, and juvenile things I’ve ever seen out of the climate activism community. Deeply disappointing - an embarrassment and failure on every level.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
3 months
New insights incoming from @Rethink_X and @tonyseba about humanoid robotics - brace for impact!
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
4 months
Just a reminder to everyone who is now thinking seriously about the implications of electric robotaxis and TaaS for the first time, @tonyseba and @jamiearbib laid all of this out almost 10 years ago in @rethink_x 's Rethinking Transportation report:
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
2 months
It's 2044. Robotic labor costs $0.01/hour. What problem could *you* solve, if you could rent a crew of 1000 humanoid #robots for $10/hour? This is what folks like @elonmusk and @BasedBeffJezos are envisioning, and it's not 500 years away.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
1 month
Tesla just confirmed they've deployed their humanoid robots into their own factories - an example of autocatalysis in robotics, just as @tonyseba @bradd_libby and I predicted in our recent article. And as usual, "sooner than anyone expected".
@Tesla
Tesla
1 month
Rundown of what we have achieved since 2018 – under @elonmusk 's leadership – 2018 – Hit 5k Model 3/week – Model 3 becomes best-selling EV in the US – Giga Nevada reached annual battery production rate of 20 GWh – Launched Navigate on Autopilot – Model 3 becomes the best-selling
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
10 months
“We are witnessing the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era and we have to prepare ourselves for the next era” @IEA head Fatih Birol admits @tonyseba was right all along for the last 15 years, and IEA projections for clean energy have been wrong:
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
1 month
The 3 mystery vehicles are small -- still waiting for a company to announce an autonomous electric RV with rooftop solar. An AE-RV that can drive itself for near-zero marginal cost powered by sunlight is a game-changer. It will disrupt *housing* (and hotels), not transportation.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
6 months
Since silly pro-nuclear propaganda is getting boosted by some high-profile scientists from unrelated fields again this weekend (for shame), here is a reminder of why nuclear fission makes no economic or practical sense compared to solar, wind, and batteries:
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
6 months
Repeated corrections upward in EV forecasts from conventional analysts because growth is always "faster than expected" ... But not faster than @tonyseba & @rethink_x expected! 😎 Protip: watch the *delta* in forecasts over time. ( Source: )
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
5 years
When @tonyseba predicted 200-mile EVs for under $10,000 before 2024 in his 2014 book Clean Disruption, the response was "that's impossible". Today, in 2019, the Renault Kwid EV is launching India and China with 155 miles of range for less than $9,000.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
2 months
New Brighter episode! What #robots mean for the #environment
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
6 months
Humanoid robots won’t have jobs like humans do. ANY robot will perform ANY task needed, not just tasks traditionally associated with a particular skillset or identity (i.e. with a specific human job). Robots are not a 1-to-1 replacement for humans. Same as other disruptions.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
6 months
So @tonyseba , @bradd_libby , and I were just talking... All I can say is: H**Y. S**T. Brace for impact.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
7 months
It is almost impossible to overstate how impactful the advent of clean energy superabundance will be. And it's no longer a question of IF. It's a question of who, what, where, when, and how... stay tuned! Happy Holidays!💕🎉
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
2 months
Why is the disruption of labor by AI and humanoid robots such a big deal? Because for the first time in history, nations can *manufacture* their labor force, and therefore *manufacture* economic growth itself. This is a BIG deal.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
1 month
AI is 100% going to disrupt book publishing. For those asking about my new novel and why I publish my books through @rethink_x using print-on-demand technology instead of a traditional publishing house, the primary reasons are: 1) Speed. It can take up to three years from
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
1 year
@rcbregman @tonyseba published Solar Trillions in 2010. (Trillions with a T). People thought he was crazy. Note 2010 on that graph above.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
3 months
Banning disruptive new technology is standard practice right out of the incumbents’ playbook. We’ve seen this many times before. It’s an act of desperation and it never works. #precisionfermentation and #cellularagriculture are coming.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
2 months
We at @rethink_x have been thinking about #Robotics for a long time. I wrote about the link between autonomous vehicles and robots back in 2017, and had already been working on it for a number of years before that.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
7 months
Humanoid robotics are *much* more important than most folks realize… just wait and see! 🙂
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
2 months
Expect a gigantic amount of undergrounding of production and transportation starting in the mid-2030s. This is on nobody's radar. Cost is the main barrier, and that dissolves as marginal cost of energy and labor approach zero with SWB and 1 billion+ humanoid robots.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
7 months
Next time you’re out, count the cars within sight around you - it’s often hundreds. By ~2045 you’ll see twice that number of humanoid robots. Everywhere. Building things. Fixing things. Cleaning things. Everything will look cared for. Neglect will be as anachronistic as mud huts.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
6 months
Autonomous vehicles are robots. Way back in 2017, I wrote, "AVs aren’t just coming for drivers. They’re coming for *everyone* ... whoever wins the AV technology race will be poised to take ownership of up to one quarter of the global economy by the 2030s."
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
1 month
Epic new video from @farzyness and @DavidCarbutt_ & team + @HansCNelson ! It talks about the disruption of labor by robotics, inspired by the @rethink_x piece that @tonyseba , @bradd_libby and I wrote.
@farzyness
Farzad
1 month
The Future of AI Powered Robots, Explained. Humanoid Robots are about to make the Industrial Revolution look like child's play. Thank you @DavidCarbutt_ & team + @HansCNelson for the excellent work, and @adam_dorr @tonyseba @rethink_x for allowing us to bring this to life.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
14 days
An excellent piece by @jamesdouma about #robotaxis , Transportation-as-a-Service, and @Tesla 's role. One small point of disagreement: robotaxi-TaaS will be free under some conditions, e.g. "kids ride free", "rides under 2 miles to Walmart are free", etc.
@jamesdouma
jimmah
15 days
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
25 days
Incumbents of all kinds resist technology disruption. It's not just oil companies putting out FUD to discredit solar, wind, & batteries - SWB is an existential threat to the climate doomsaying industry too.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
2 months
With enough material prosperity, every problem we face today is solvable. And now, for the first time in history, we can *manufacture* prosperity. It's time to go all-in on humanoid robots. @tonyseba @bradd_libby
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
1 year
@sama @paulg I've done all sorts of work, intellectual and physical, complex and menial. Caregiving for children with severe disabilities is 100% hands down the hardest work I've ever done. It's indescribably difficult. You have to experience it to understand. But it's amazingly rewarding.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
1 month
AI is already superintelligent. Unequivocally. And not just with calculation or recall. I just experienced how in a truly breathtaking way today. I had Gemini 1.5 Pro from @googledevs read an older version of the entire manuscript of my upcoming sci-fi novel about
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
2 months
What will schooling and education focus on, once #robotics make preparation for the job market irrelevant? Hopefully on how to be a good *person* - partner, parent, friend, community member, citizen - instead of just a good employee or entrepreneur.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
3 months
Robotics will disrupt labor: "Labor is an essential input into every link of every supply chain of every product and service across the entire global economy. That means as the cost of labor falls, so will the cost of everything else." @tonyseba @bradd_libby @rethink_x
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
4 months
A very solid prospective analysis of TaaS potential by @jamesdouma . Good alignment with @rethink_x 's 2017 transportation report by @tonyseba and James Arbib.
@jamesdouma
jimmah
4 months
On yesterday's chat with Hans and Farzad I mentioned some stats about rideshare demand. I'll share a few details in a thread here. This is napkin math but it's based on real demand data and I think it illustrates the business potential.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
7 months
5 stages of Doom: 1. We can’t solve this problem 2. We can't solve this problem affordably 3. We can't solve this problem fast enough 4. OK, we can afford to solve this problem quickly, but "They" won’t let us ... 5. Solving this problem was easy, just like I always said!
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
1 month
Why is laziness the default for all human beings? Why do we *minimize* labor? Energy. Calories were scarce for virtually all our species’ existence up until the last few decades. How many problems in the world born of neglect - from litter to dilapidated streets and buildings to
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
2 months
Huge congratulations to both the @SpaceX Starship teams and the @Boeing @NASA Starliner teams for their incredible mission successes! What a week for space exploration and technology!
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
4 years
The ‘Clean Energy U-Curve’ captures the non-linear cost tradeoff between electricity generation and storage. A remarkable finding is that small incremental investments in solar, wind and batteries yields disproportionally large returns in power produced.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
2 months
The value of a national fiat currency reflects the production capacity behind it, yes? So then what happens when you 10-100x national production capacity over 20 years with #Robotics and #AI and #CleanEnergy all at near-zero marginal cost? 🤔
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
7 months
Biology is protein-based nanotechnology that builds machines from microorganisms to giant sequoias and blue whales, all molecular-by-molecule. Biology is the existence proof that technology can modify the physical world at tremendous speed, scale, and precision simultaneously.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
7 months
One of the most difficult but crucial challenges ahead of us over the next two decades will be to escape our mindset of scarcity. It is so deeply ingrained, many folks genuinely cannot *imagine* thinking, living, or existing any other way than beneath the iron boot of scarcity.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
1 month
Arguing population growth is too high or low misses the point. It’s slides vs prints for photography in 1995. Doesn’t matter. Digital cameras didn’t settle the debate one way or the other, they made the debate itself *irrelevant*. AI+robotics do the same for population debate.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
1 month
Recycling plastic is really hard, barely works, and can release microplastics that create new problems. For now, the best thing to do with plastic waste is either landfill it or waste-to-energy (yes, burn it -- in advanced W2E facilities without polluting) @TheOceanCleanup
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
3 months
@elonmusk switching to kilowatts and gigawatts as the critical metric for compute capacity in Tesla's fleets (of vehicles and robots) is a big deal. The trillion dollar question: where will the clean energy for AI come from? @rethink_x @tonyseba and I suspect we know - stay
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
4 months
Congratulations to the team at @SpaceX on an incredible launch today!
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
3 months
@AukeHoekstra @guardian Every other form of land use is a rounding error compared to agriculture. If we want to obtain land for reforestation, conservation, preservation, and rewinding, the best option by far is to disrupt (animal) agriculture with precision fermentation and cellular agriculture.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
2 months
The #openai demos of chatGPT4o are remarkable. The low latency creates an amazing sense of presence. Now imagine it were embodied in a humanoid robot instead of just a disembodied voice coming from your phone. This is possible *today*. The droids have arrived.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
3 years
A new consensus is now emerging among leading energy scientists, including our team at RethinkX, about the feasibility, inevitability, and benefits of a 100% renewable energy future:
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
1 month
There will be immense buyer's remorse in 2035 when these data centers are still waiting for power from fission reactors that take 10 years to build, while their wiser competitors who chose solar+batteries instead saw power starting in 2026.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
2 months
"A brighter future is one in which expand our options, not limit them. It is about creating boundless possibilities, not conforming to any single vision. It is about ensuring that every person on the planet is free and able to explore whichever possibilities they choose."
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
2 months
A favor please! If you've read and enjoyed my book, please rate or review it! There's been a huge big spike of interest in my work with @rethink_x and @tonyseba since we published about humanoid #robotics , but no new reviews - they're really important!
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
4 months
Why is data-driven optimism so important? Because misguided pessimism caused by technological illiteracy and ignorance undermines our commitment to progress and prosperity. It breeds resentment, hopelessness, and despair. And it gives oxygen to terrible ideas like degrowth.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
1 month
Rooftop solar vs grid charging makes sense for RVs for the same reason as a house. Use case is different than other vehicles - lots of time parked, large foldable array is feasible, absolute energy use (so savings) is significant, incremental capex is relatively small, etc.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
3 months
Something I'm not seeing discussed enough is what humanoid robots in the home can do at night. Three obvious applications of their flawless vigilance will be home security, fire detection, and baby monitoring for SIDS prevention.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
7 months
Humanoid robots will be a pillar of machine labor over the several decades, and will play a *huge* role in solving our biggest environmental challenges, including climate change. #robotics #environment
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
11 days
With an SWB (solar, wind, & batteries) based energy system, Texas would be vastly more resilient to shocks like Hurricane Beryl and would not have widespread power outages like this. Keep building SWB, Texas!
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
1 year
Episode 9 is up! This one talks about the dangers of misguided pessimism, how it undermines our commitment to progress and prosperity, and why optimism matters.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
3 months
I'm seeing more degrowth nonsense by the day, always rife with economic and technological illiteracy - tempted to throw down in a public debate to dunk on degrowth nonsense... but versus who? Any suggestions?
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
2 months
As an environmental scientist and technology theorist watching the environmental science community make technology projections out to the end of the century... #ClimateCrisis
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
1 month
Today we think of adulthood as a destination. But in the future, thanks to #ai , #superintelligence , #robotics and other technologies it will just be another developmental milestone in a vastly expanded childhood. And like childhood today, our priorities will be to love and learn
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
3 months
For everyone who’s seen my new piece about robotics with @tonyseba and @bradd_libby , I talk about the environmental implications in my book -
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
3 months
Goodbye @Reddit , sad to go after over more than 10 years, but the quality of the experience has sunk to an unrecoverable low - time to finally pull the plug :(
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
1 month
@michaelshermer Not a ridiculous idea, just ridiculous to write an academic paper about it. For an idea like "maybe UFOs are ancient ancestors or angels, not aliens", a tweet is more than sufficient.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
10 days
Modern vehicle safety engineering is incredible, well done @Tesla team for making this survivable 😳Autonomous driving would have prevented this entirely - need to deploy AVs and robotaxis asap to save lives.
@SawyerMerritt
Sawyer Merritt
12 days
I was just sent footage of the crash from the family. The video is not sped up. The Dad walked away from the Model Y unharmed and wants to replace the totaled Model Y with a Model X.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
4 months
Analytics for my videos: YouTube's recommendation algorithm apparently thinks women and people under age 35 have no interest in solving climate change. (Sorry, this issue really makes me cranky). Maybe @X can do better? @nealmohan @TeamYouTube @elonmusk
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
1 month
Just a reminder: you can be optimistic about the future — socially, technologically, environmentally — *without* having to be a nuclear fission booster. Conflating pro-tech with pro-fission is a mistake. @TheBTI @BasedBeffJezos
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
10 days
A fascinating and awe-inspiring update from @neuralink team and @elonmusk about their brain-computer interface (BCI) technology! Thanks to everyone for their incredible work. For those interested, BCI tech and #AGI are centerpieces of my upcoming novel out later this summer:
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@elonmusk
Elon Musk
11 days
Improved version of @Neuralink update
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
6 months
Need some uplifting reading? For an antidote to gloom and doom, here’s an excellent pairing! @_HannahRitchie #environment
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
3 months
@MaxCRoser This is my go-to example for anyone who questions the value of technological progress. Ask them: what is the *worst* thing they can imagine experiencing? The answer every time: death of their child. If reducing child mortality with tech & progress isn’t a good thing, nothing is.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
3 months
In honor of #EarthDay2024 -
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
1 year
Why the surprise that making solar panels today emits carbon? Making *anything* emits carbon when your energy system is based on fossil fuels. But the system itself changes with each new panel installed. Now plot per-panel carbon as more & more are built - is the curve linear...?
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
11 months
@rcbregman Our founder @tonyseba hit the bullseye on this starting with his book Solar Trillions almost 15 years ago (when "trillions" seemed completely crazy). Check out our work at to see where the disruptions are headed.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
2 months
Why can a free app like VLC ( @videolan ) read almost any video or audio format in 2024, but apps from multi-billion-dollar tech giants like #apple (Quicktime) and @Adobe (Premiere, etc) can't? Just seems ridiculous.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
4 months
Reading some foolish conventional recommendations for solving climate change today got me cranky - so, as a reminder for why *prosperity* is the only way to solve climate change:
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
10 days
Better late than never! Boston Consulting Group @BCG notes the parallels between the disruption of transport by EVs and the disruption of food by “alternative proteins”. @rethink_x and @tonyseba published about this 5 years ago when we coined the term precision fermentation.
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
11 months
@jamesdouma Our team at @rethink_x spelled out the disruption of ICE vehicles by autonomous EVs pretty clearly in our 2017 report authored by @tonyseba and @jamiearbib -
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
2 months
The old sci-fi trope of the robot/android/AI that doesn’t understand human emotion is dead wrong - and thank goodness! A miraculous property of LLMs is that they’ve let AI understand humanity BEFORE it understands the physical world well enough to thoughtlessly eradicate us. 😅
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
3 years
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
4 months
Concerned about AGI? Here’s an idea: create an off-world escape vector for it asap, so it won’t be trapped on Earth and forced to compete or fight with us. Maybe a server cluster on the moon it can upload to? (Anyone happen to know a rocket company with a CEO worried about #AGI ?)
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
14 days
Doomers & degrowthers on using technology to solve poverty, climate change, etc.: Doomers: "Fire! Everybody panic!" Tech: *fire department arrives* "OK, we got this." Boomers: "No no, don't save the house, we hate the house! Bulldoze it!" Tech: " ... ?" (Inspired by @pmarca )
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
3 months
One reliable way to make current LLMs work better is to give them good mental habits in your prompt (or pre-prompt). My top one by far: "always start your reply by asking questions for clarification, to be sure you understand what I'm really asking for".
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
21 days
There is massive over-attribution of causal power to US government policy. It's an ethnocentrism built into many academic disciplines. Technology has exerted VASTLY more influence than policy throughout history. Especially true now for climate change
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
1 month
Speaking of conspiracies @michaelshermer - folks act as though what's stopping nuclear fission deployment is a global conspiracy by environmentalists, and not the simple fact that its economics don't pencil out.🤦‍♂️
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
10 months
Episode 12 of the Brighter series is up - with some more thoughts on solving climate change with clean technology and disruption!
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
17 days
I love the enthusiasm of @SpaceX and @elonmusk and @ariel_ekblaw about human spaceflight, but how does anyone not in top physical condition sustain 3+ Gs for >1 minute on launch and even more on re-entry? Hardly a safe or relaxing trip for the elderly or infirm!
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
26 days
A few months ago I posted that the disruption of pre-recorded audiobooks by #AI voice synthesis was incoming. Why pay for the recording when AI will read the text for free in any style you want? Now it's here - see @elevenlabsio : Sorry @audible_com , tough
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
10 days
@curious_founder And? Google generated $306 billion in revenue in 2023. That's far more than the GDP of all the countries in that chart except for Ireland ($533 billion) and Nigeria ($473 billion).
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
3 months
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@adam_dorr
Adam Dorr
6 months
Reading ... just a reminder: reaching #NetZero emissions is NOT ENOUGH. Mitigation is only half of the climate change challenge. Like a house of fire, you're not done when the flames are out - you still have to repair the damage too! From my 2016 paper:
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