Kiran D Profile Banner
Kiran D Profile
Kiran D

@_kirand

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Strategy Consultant, Investor, Part-time blogger

India
Joined May 2008
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
2 years
We shifted houses recently and I had a chance to sort out books acquired over the past 10-12 years. As a showoff of sorts, here's a short thread on some of the books I read through in the last 10-12 years. 1/n
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@_kirand
Kiran D
10 months
We recently did a 6-day trip to Vietnam (friends, no family) and tremendous biz insights came about tldr of Vietnam from a holiday lens - go if you are going with friends. Else,not worth the trouble despite the direct flights. Yes, it's pretty, but not breathtaking like TH (1/n)
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@_kirand
Kiran D
4 years
Don't burst crackers...says a man who had insane amount of fireworks at his wedding/reception. Faltu ka free gyaan dene mein sab log maahir hai.
@imVkohli
Virat Kohli
4 years
Happy Diwali 🙏🏻
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@_kirand
Kiran D
2 years
Awesome Meghalaya is really really AWESOME! One of the best holidays we've had. Thread: I never read travelogues, because I wanted to be there rather than read about it. However, when to go and how much it'd cost were definitely questions. TLDR: Nov-Feb, Rs 1.5L (for 3) (1/n)
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@_kirand
Kiran D
5 years
There has been a lot written on SBI cards performance and cards industry in India in general on multiple articles and threads. So, why not add to the noise even though the IPO might be 3-6 months away. So, here a few interesting nuggets (from the DRHP) which I have not seen (1/n)
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@_kirand
Kiran D
10 months
2) Infra from roads, ports, facilities is more than world-class. I haven't seen China,but having seen Bharuch & other industrial areas here(including roads), Vietnam is easily 10-15 years ahead of us. Even if we get as cheap and productive as them (haha!),no chance on infra (3/n)
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@_kirand
Kiran D
5 years
Narrative fallacies on twitter. Folks who were super bullish on Piramal are now saying, 'mein kab ka nikal gaya'. Same with Edel. Same with every stock that's gone down. All of them now touting virtuous,vicious. Trust no one folks. No one.If you side car,eventually no side,no car
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@_kirand
Kiran D
5 months
Everyone was saying 40 is the new 20, 40 is the new 20. In the season of woke, I thought it was age. Now, I realize it's P/E multiple.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
6 years
Lol. All investors cheering IL&FS takeover by Govt. And same folks turn around and say Govt doesn't have any business running state owned banks. Jab portfolio phategi, to sab acha hai.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
3 years
I think age 35 - 45 has the maximum number of micro-decisions per day. Just super tired of making all these micro things on job, career, family, kid, parents, house..never ends man! I fondly reminiscence of 25-35 where only a few major decisions need to be made..
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@_kirand
Kiran D
4 years
An update on this: So, chemical and pharma capex announced so far for FY22: SRF - 1200 cr Divis - 1000 cr Guj Fluoro - 1000 cr Atul - 1200 cr Aarti - 1000 cr Laurus - 1200 cr PI Industries - 600 cr Deepak Nitrite - 500 cr Vinati, Hikal, Rallis etc. - 150-200 cr each China + 1?
@_kirand
Kiran D
4 years
Chemical and pharma companies who have announced close to 1000+ cr capex in FY22 (and some in FY23 as well) in the chemical &pharma space - SRF, Divis, Atul, Laurus, Guj Fluoro, Aarti? Who else from folks following this sector and every concall closely? (any in 500-1000 as well)
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@_kirand
Kiran D
7 years
If you were to read only 1 thing in 2018, let it be this. Investing or otherwise.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
4 years
Nifty's core and big constituents are getting stronger and bigger. It will one helluva task to beat Nifty YoY for almost all equity funds over the next 5 years.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
4 years
Watched Scam 1992 #scam1992 . Just blown away by Pratik and Shreya's acting, flawless screenplay and captivating 10 hours. A dedication.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
2 years
Tweets can be shared on LinkedIn, but can LinkedIn updates be shared on Twitter? Would God Elon allow it. Nevertheless, this happened in my career. Delighted and all that, and a MBA goal fulfilled! :) I can now deliver leadership lessons before and after I became a leader :D
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@_kirand
Kiran D
2 years
Inflation aur recession ki aag lagi hai duniya mein, Indian investor apne mauj mein! 'europe is collapsing' - good for India mfg; 'europe is booming' - good for India export story. Alag hi duniya hai life mein.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
10 months
3) Vingroup (recently listed in the US) a large firm in Vietnam. They started a car mfg firm called Vinfast. For their EV setup, the Govt. gave them a FULL island (almost) and since 2017 have built everything required for EV including battery mfg..not just assembling (4/n)
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@_kirand
Kiran D
3 years
Time to burn all those investing books and CFA certificate and MBA degrees. This is how the world works now.
@liz_franczak
Liz Franczak
3 years
what a time 2 b alive
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@_kirand
Kiran D
10 months
Onto the business insights then: 1) Labor for Agri and Manufacturing is super cheap. Anywhere between US$1-2/hour and highly productive. Works out to roughly USD 200-300/month. Interior Vietnam is even cheaper. Massively organized, productive and super cheap (2/n)
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@_kirand
Kiran D
6 years
30 years compounding. No down year, no losses. Stanley Druckenmiller, gentlemen. Lots to learn, as always from who I think is the greatest trader-cum-investor of all time.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
2 years
We visited the Gandikota fort, India's own Grand Canyon. A 7-hour spectacularly scenic drive from Hyderabad. Relatively easy, but a very satisfying 4-point trek. Fab zipline. Super relic architecture. Stunning skies changing hue. An extremely enjoyable 2 day camping trip!
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@_kirand
Kiran D
10 months
6) Chinese, Japanese and Koreans have the largest influence on Viet culture. Work like the Chinese, Buy Japanese cars (Toyota has ~25% market share) and aspire for Korean (e.g., almost all premium real-estate ads have a "will build it like authentic Korean style") (7/n)
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@_kirand
Kiran D
2 years
I have read this so many times now. With every reading, it gets better. The only equivalent that I can think of are the books 'How to get lucky' and 'The art of learning'
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@_kirand
Kiran D
3 years
Market punishes every time you sell. For the past 11 years. On most stocks. There is regret on selling expensive stocks as well because they became more expensive. Just incredible conditioning Or maybe, the Market has always been like this over long periods-up and to the right.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
10 months
9) Amazing infra example - on either side of major highways, there is a 500m-1km gap and then their towns and villages start. Essentially preparing to continue to expand roadways for next 15 years. Also, no bumps/potholes on the road anywhere really except by exceptions (10/n)
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@_kirand
Kiran D
6 years
A huge shout out to @karansharma_09 @SaketLohia5 and @vishnu570 for their efforts this results season. If you are not following them already, you are missing out on a lot. Go, Follow, Appreciate. Thank you all Karan, Saket and Vishnu, absolutely stellar stuff this.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
5 years
At first (2013-15), there was a bubble with 100 baggers. Then (2015-17) came the bubble of 'buy and hold'. Then (2018-2021ish) is the bubble of 'quality'. Slowly, there is a bubble in technical analysis. Every one and their grandmother seems to be doing it these days pre- & post-
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@_kirand
Kiran D
10 months
10) So,what you have as a summary is - productive culture of working + cheap labor + land at reasonable costs + amazing infra. Disadvantage they can cover up in the next 5-10 years is that of English-speaking. Disadvantage they can't cover up is that they are only 100M ppl (11/n)
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@_kirand
Kiran D
10 months
4) Aquaculture is at a massive scale. Just like LGDs & real diamonds have almost no difference, there is a huge scale setup for artificially-aquaculture-grown pearls which are as good, if not better than real pearls. Don't go massive pearl shopping yet - flood is coming (5/n)
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@_kirand
Kiran D
2 years
Markets are correcting man. Need to focus on career now.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
4 years
Bharat Bandh. Checking with friends in south of India...there was no blip of any bandh. I remember, 20-25 years ago, any type of bandh by any party would have caused total ruckus to public property and everything would have closed. Economic progress means, nobody gives a shit.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
10 months
5) Almost everyone believes that product cycles and product disruption is now down to 1-2 year cycle max and not like 4-5 year cycle like pre-2015. From food to mfg products, the sentiment is the same. Ergo, they are innovating at a rapid scale on many fronts (6/n)
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@_kirand
Kiran D
10 months
8) A Communist govt with capitalism in disguise. Per capita already of US$4500 and rising fast. Only disadvantage is non-English speaking, but changing fast as we heard almost all young folk interact in English, broken and fluent. (9/n)
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@_kirand
Kiran D
10 months
12) Like I said, it's good, not great from a Tourism thingy. Temples there are interesting - with praying to Buddha in the entrance for world peace, and pray to their old kings at the back for all the greedy things we generally ask for (better at study, more money etc.) <the end>
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@_kirand
Kiran D
3 years
Even if 50% of what he is saying is true, that's amazing!!
@sas96553801
sanjive sethi .🇮🇳
3 years
Gadkari in full flow.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
5 years
A bit contrary. First things first, I don't think this will spur more CapEx from the big firms. CapEx is done based on demand and not on extra money in the bank. But my grouse is different. This will make the big, even bigger. The US model.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
2 years
I was at the Aero show a couple of days ago in Bangalore. Broader observations / insights from the show. A thread (1/n):
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@_kirand
Kiran D
2 years
Watched the 2nd show of Pathan yesterday night. Couldn't stop sharing a review with the family group late at night. I absolutely, like awesomely loved Ek Tha Tiger even if it was over-the-top in many things. But Pathaan is 10x worse even after 10 years post Ek Tha Tiger release.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
3 years
Question: Which individual investor/PMS shop writes the best long-read investment thesis focused on Indian markets? Not sell-side reports. Those are in plenty. Interested in folks with skin-in-game and all those fancy phrases, who write a proper, long read thesis than just tweets
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@_kirand
Kiran D
4 years
Just in case you missed reading on weekend, posted a new blogpost (without any financial projections or future value, just business understanding) on a chemical capital goods company - HLE Glascoat -
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@_kirand
Kiran D
10 months
11) Anyhoo, that's that on business insights. On touristy things - apart from shady things, Hanoi is super clean, Ha Long islands is awesomest, boating in Tam Kok is incredible and Ho Chi Minh is dirty but an incredible party place (Skybar being the highlight).
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@_kirand
Kiran D
2 years
New Blogpost: The Trishanku Year - where I cover for the most part about career, life and a brief view on investing
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@_kirand
Kiran D
6 years
What a great way to learn about the industry...bit by bit. Took a prinout, reading it bit by bit, overlaying your own examples. Just captivating. - jumped thread to thread to here..starting with @gordonmax 's thread. And did I say @gordonmax is a must #FF
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@_kirand
Kiran D
10 months
7) Very large influence of the Chinese is every sphere of life (China is just 170km away from Hanoi, it's capital). Immense amount of investment from China. Obvious overtures from everybody because of easy access to South China Sea. Largest tourists are Chinese (8/n)
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@_kirand
Kiran D
2 years
As I reflected today morning, wrote this . Offered with no comment.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
2 years
Me (just when the kiddo was born a few years ago): I am going to explain everything to the kid in a logical, first principles manner of everything under the sun. Me (now): don't be so argumentative. It is like this only, and you have no choice but to accept.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
7 months
Agrochem and IT sectors walked into a bar. Both said, we want a drink after demand recovers in the "next 6-9 months" on loop. The bartender left the job.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
2 years
At an airport, in this order. Great story right there. Bought none.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
3 years
Watched 2 fab movies over the new year: a) Minnal Murali - such a brilliantly made superhero movie. Every scene sucks you in, and takes you on a different plane of experience. b) Don't look up - Dystopian funny drama without being a spoof. Superb writing, great acting.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
5 years
The New Normal in food delivery.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
4 years
If someone is interested in US funds letters across many fund houses/hedge funds/pvt equity etc., a comprehensive link for all Q1 letters published - High hopes, but - if any such compilation exists for India, please do pass along the link.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
7 years
Please don't follow this. Example of people taking survivorship bias and quoting it as success..also called Halo effect. Please do reasonable diversification..and not because you love biscuits and pizzas and chocolates.
@FI_InvestIndia
Fundamental Investor ™ 🇮🇳
7 years
Year 2005 Kiran loved biscuits & cakes. She decided to own her fav brand. She was 30. Earning well. 2005-2013, business gave CAGR of 14%. Everyone laughed saying she missed multi-baggers. Today also people laugh. She enjoys "her" Good Day. She inspires #FI
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@_kirand
Kiran D
3 years
When lending works well (as in,one still has not blown up) you can call it Analytics-driven bank/nbfc with focused & aggressive mgmt. When it doesn't,then everyone knows why they were too aggressive with lending and why they always knew it was too good to be true. Oh hind-bind!
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@_kirand
Kiran D
5 years
What an ad! And these days we get bloody Kamala Pasand ads doing nothing but just shouting.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
3 years
Family Man Season 2 absolutely brilliant!! Must watch. I had high expectations after Season 1, and they churned out yet another captivating and exceptional season. Sam is as good, if not better than Manoj. One of the best multi-season series that's released in the last 3 yrs
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@_kirand
Kiran D
5 years
At the rate at which investors are crying at increased taxes on everything, "har ghar jal" takes on a completely different tone.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
4 years
So, we went through Covid-19. The entire family - the parents, the wife and kid, myself. Last 15 days. What got me through this insane period with sanity on the other side today, frankly, was the IPL. Mindless, continuous daily matches which kept me sane. Let me explain.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
5 years
IPO sprucing going on. Folks calculations say 1700 cr PAT (arey, festival season - so more PAT in H2 etc.) and 57000 cr valuation 33x for a 30% grower with 35% RoE. Aur kya chaiye life mein. Well, foot notes chaiye life mein. The End. (n/n -> infinity)
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@_kirand
Kiran D
4 years
I really don't see a reason for analysing investment mistakes very deeply. When one invests,we usually have 2-3-4 factors that need to go in our favor (growth/tailwinds/mgmt change/op leverage etc.) for the investment to work out well (2-3x in 3 yrs roughly). Most times,they dont
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@_kirand
Kiran D
5 years
Arnab's show tomorrow starts at 6:30am. Counting starts at 8:30am. Let that sink in. 2 hours of amazing shouting and fighting for no good reason..early in the morning.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
3 years
Everyone seems to have jumped bandwagon from 'invest in predictable, durable consumer and financial franchises' to 'you need to look at long term CAGR of commodity stocks. they have beaten most durable franchises'. Didn't take much. Just 3-5 months of commodities bull run.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
6 months
Soliciting views on the mega-trends/themes that will play out in the next 5 years: My views in the image
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@_kirand
Kiran D
1 year
Nothing makes sense anymore in the markets - equity or debt or land or real estate. No logic from history holds. Yet, the visionaries that we all are, we are holding on (and hardly selling anything). Holding on to the vain hope that it will all work everything out. Time.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
3 years
This is an old video (that I have watched 2-3 times), but everytime I hear Manish Chokani-ji speak ...it's just so so amazing. I mean, in general, he is amazing-est, but he is in a different zone of thinking and articulation after the 40th min
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@_kirand
Kiran D
4 years
Is there any way I can mute all tweets related to Pharma? Bhai, all of us have made returns, but you guys are tweeting as if it is best thing since sliced bread. Muting just #pharma keyword is not working. Too many pharma names to block.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
3 years
Syria. 1945. 2021. Same headline. Probability of being born in Syria vs India/US...life would be very different.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
2 years
Books which completely changed how I thought about certain things in life...rather..many things in life. These are, what I mark as 'wisdom' books which taught me how to think. 2/n
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@_kirand
Kiran D
2 months
On the eve of Buffett’s birthday, remember that he sold out everything in 1969 from his partnership, but the bull market ended only in 1972. 3 years of seeing every day that you were wrong. He was probably 40 at that time. So,don’t make threads on ‘invest like b’ or ‘be like b’
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@_kirand
Kiran D
3 years
I got this on some Twitter thread in the morning, but unable to trace back for attribution. But been laughing since morning. Too hilarious. "Position sizing vs Opinion sizing" - if you want to get intellectual (like others on FinTwit). But generally also, too good fun!
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@_kirand
Kiran D
5 years
Alchemy done. 3 to go. Factfulness along with Alchemy rank as the 2 best books I read in 2019..
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@_kirand
Kiran D
3 years
Absolutely stellar! Brilliant work. Miles to go...a true product company out of India with no fanfare around funding, but too many actual fans :)
@faltoo
Pratyush Mittal
3 years
Wow! has been cited in at least 21 papers:
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@_kirand
Kiran D
6 years
What's the best book you have read on history of markets (India or otherwise)? Apart from Charles Mckay.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
6 months
A short thread on Oil reading: I was very intrigued by one chart yesterday - like out-of-whack intrigued. Can't remember the source, but found it on Twitter. The headline and the data point essentially indicated that USA produces more oil than Russia and KSA. Whattt? (1/n)
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@_kirand
Kiran D
2 years
The last 4 seconds where he holds the ladder...goodness..good role models he must have.
@TansuYegen
Tansu Yegen
2 years
The hero of the day was the little boy who ran to help his mother, who was stuck in the air while fixing the garage door. He was able to lift the big ladder by himself👏👏👏
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@_kirand
Kiran D
3 years
I don't get what's so complicated about investing. All you need is a company's earnings grow by 100% CAGR for a few years and that 150 PE will start looking cheap.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
2 years
War ho gaya. Inflation ho gaya. Oil ho gaya. Aage badhte hai yaar. Kitna sab "this is it, this is now" feeling mein jeeyenge. Covid paar kar liye, isko bhi paar kar lenge. Aage badhte hai. Thoda lamba sochte hai.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
6 years
Aaj kal sabko sab pata hai..courtesy google, twitter and whatsapp. Magar..ek cheez theek se, discipline se implement karne ke liye..jaan nikal jaati hai.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
4 years
I am just lost for words. Just tears of happiness and screams of joy! Greatest series win ever. 320 runs on a 5th day pitch against the best bowling attack in the world. Just incredible for this team, and Indian cricket.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
5 years
'I rate this budget 7/10'; 'i rate this budget 6/10'. Alert: nobody gives a shit.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
3 years
Need to focus on my career now. Market correction seems to be here.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
6 years
Icarus - Loved it. Death of a Gentleman - Boring. Voyeur - Loved it. Hiro dreams of Sushi - pending. Alphago, Dirty Money, Fyre, Inside the Mossad, Spartcaus - all done, loved them all. Any other recommendations? Can't watch Seasons on seasons. Documentary or 1 Season reccos?
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@_kirand
Kiran D
3 years
As we close 8 months of 2021, apart from making money in the markets (which almost everybody did - some more, some less), what did you learn in 2021? Nothing Covid related please. Everybody has gone through some trauma or other - some greater some lesser.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
3 years
Explained to the son just before he went to sleep about the Sun becoming a Red Giant and Milky way and Andromeda galaxies collapsing into each other before that. He got up in the middle of the night, crying anxiously about getting consumed in a ball of fire. This is success, no?
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@_kirand
Kiran D
2 years
Except for startups whose money is stuck in SVB, I literally don't understand this deep interest in a Bank failure. Over 300 years,Banks have always failed because of market risk/credit risk/interest risk. It must be one of the three. There is nothing new. Whole TL is bloody SVB.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
6 years
A very cathartic book. A breezy first half. An excruciating second half. Too many loops of self-reflection while reading the 2nd half. Recommended.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
3 years
Watched 'Decoupled' on Netflix. Fab series ..Madhavan etc. Some super writing, some super acting. Like rom-com, this is divorce-com ..and very well written. If you are looking for a breezy comedy, this is it.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
4 years
Thread gives out a lot of information, but doesn't talk of how much is priced in. If I take away the supernormal profits of Acetonitrile, it doesnt even do 120-130 cr PAT this year. At 3600 cr mkt cap, what is your expected earnings growth?
@drprashantmish6
Dr Prashant Mishra
4 years
Alkyl amines Chemical ltd - I always accumulate in correction because 1- company with MCAP of around 3600 Cr and 12 production plants 2- continuously increasing capacity and now debt is reducing with increase in reserve 3-maintaining ROE and ROCE more then 20%
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@_kirand
Kiran D
11 months
Really not sure that people still want to calculate all this. This one is obvious and you don't need fancy graphs or Excel. You need 1M dollars to retire. Don't do any math. That's the number.
@ravihanda
Ravi Handa
11 months
A 35-40 year old needs 5 crore if he wants to retire today. Great chart by Truemind Capital.
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@_kirand
Kiran D
4 years
One good thing from this Covid travel ban is the absence of humble-brag investors proclaiming going to Berkshire AGM, standing in line selfies etc. Thank god we avoided that craziness in 2020.
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