Dante Grasso @Yellow_Evan Twitter profile

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 month

Eight years ago, Typhoon #Meranti reached its peak intensity as one of the strongest typhoons ever observed as strongly suggested by surface observations and included a double clutch, meaning 2 separate RI events.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 year

Officially a graduate from UH with a Masters in atmospheric sciences. Thanks everyone for a great two years!

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 year

On this day 40 years ago, Typhoon #Forrest underwent a historic 100 mbar/day deepening rate from 976 to 876 mbar per recon. Using CKZ, this supports ~175 kts. The eye was so small that it could not be resolved by 4 km imagery but its CDO was circular and surrounded by banding.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

3 months

An SSMIS pass shows that Tropical Storm #Debby has a low-level inner core. Latest IR loops show a primitive CDO and well-established upper level outflow. With a jet interaction to boost, rapid intensification is increasingly likely prior to reaching the Florida Panhandle.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

2 months

Seven years ago today, Hurricane #Irma reached its peak intensity near the Lesser Antilles. Although cloud tops colder than -64C did not wrap around the eye and Dvorak estimates at its Category 5 upgrade only T5.5, its symmetry and eye temperature did match >=150 kt standards.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

23 days

0z ECMWF has #Kirk and the trailing disturbance being long tracked hurricanes. If it verifies, this sort of late season activity east of the islands has not meaningfully observed since 1878 and the season would have a good chance at >150 ACE after all.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

2 months

After days of battling shear and dry air, #Ernesto has become better organized with an eye becoming apparent on visible and IR as its poleward outflow is enhanced by a divergent jet interaction.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

4 months

Tropical Storm #Beryl has quickly rotated convection upshear while banding features have become distinct. An AMSR2 pass revealed an inner core though there is some vertical tilt. Given the near ideal environment and compact size, rapid intensification is likely this weekend.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

2 months

After rapidly completing an eyewall replacement cycle, Typhoon #Shanshan has cleared out a large, warm, and circular eye, although significant wind shear is limiting wrapping on the western semicircle.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

20 days

Hurricane #Kirk has rapidly axisymmetrized after battling dry air and wind shear, with a near 20C eye embedded in cloud tops colder than -70C (WMG/W). Significant intensification underway as long as it sustains.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

18 days

Tropical Storm #Milton has unexpectedly developed this morning. IR loops show the development of a central sense overcast and an AMSR2 pass shows a cyan ring. Given this structure, 30C+ SSTs, and low vertical shear, significant intensification is likely the next few days.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

26 days

Hurricane #Isaac has rapidly intensified over the last 24 hours in an unusually favorable environment near 40N. Single frame DT is around 5.0 as of latest frame so if it sustains, an official upgrade to Category 2 is in the cards.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

20 days

Hurricane #Kirk is on the brink of Category 5 status. Over the last few hours, it has evolved from a bursting to symmetrizing pattern while the eye has become circular and clear from cirrus, with IR eye temperatures reaching 21C some frames.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

5 months

@CoachKarl22 AD was never a superstar? God no wonder why you haven’t had a job in a decade.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 year

Following an insane rate of clearing since ~1930z, the eye of Hurricane #Jova has now reached WMG status (>=9C), the color that represents the brightest IR temperatures on the Dvorak color scheme. Cloud tops have also cooled as the earlier convective burst symmetrize.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

4 months

The potential incoming La Niña has fallen behind stronger events such as 2010 this month. Trades over the tropical Pacific have been near average, and sea surface temperatures have risen slightly. This may favor more Pacific tropical cyclone activity than initially expected.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 year

The Eastern Pacific is onto a slow start, with no activity thus far. A canonical El Niño is rapidly forming concurrent with a -PMM, with +SSTAs over the cold tongue. This favors low pressure along the equator that push the ITCZ south.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

4 months

An AMSR2 pass reveals that #Beryl has a partial mid-level eyewall, although convection is still ragged and is struggling to rotate out of upshear left quadrant. Rapid intensification is still likely once the core solidifies tomorrow and convection rotates downshear.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

14 days

Although it has struggled with shear for days and will do so again after tonight, the eye of Hurricane #Lesile is clearing tonight. Satellite intensity estimates are about to shoot up - SAB at least seems on track for a T5.5.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 year

The rapid intensification episode of #Hamoon has continued, with an eye now evident on visible and IR. Like most trough interactions, core is very well-defined on microwave. Unless shear increases soon, it seems likely this will be around 115 kt within 6 hours.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

10 months

@LakersNation They hopefully got you fired.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

4 months

Aircraft reconnoissance has made its first pass through Hurricane #Beryl . Peak FL winds of 151 knots, though SFMR is not functional. This means #Beryl is not quite a Category 5, although it remains impressive, with a circular CDO and a mesmerizing and stable eye.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

3 months

Although still in an environment of significant easterly shear, #Gaemi is producing cloud tops bursts colder than -90C that is also curling upshear. Microwave shows an inner core with tilt, indicative of an atypical upshear RI case. Latest ASCAT supports an upgrade to a typhoon.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

2 months

To be Typhoon #Yagi has developed vortical hot towers in the downshear semicircle, leading to rapid axissymmetrization. This is often a precursor for significant rapid intensification and not coincidentally coincided with a warm spot appearing on IR.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

5 months

The strong El Niño event of 2023-24 is over. Below average SSTAs have emerged in the cold tongue region off South America, Nino 3.4 15 day SSTAs have dropped below Nino threshold, and convection has been lacking over the equatorial Pacific since early spring.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

6 months

Typhoon #Surigae peaked in intensity 3 years ago today. Officially 170 kts, #Surigae is the strongest April TC on record. Its CDO was large, although it’s symmetry was not what you’d expect for its intensity. Cloud tops surrounding the eye were <-80C as expected for late spring.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

4 months

The Eastern Pacific is on a record slow start, with 2024 one of 3 seasons with 0 ACE YTD. A Central American Gyre has aided anticyclonic flow aloft since early June, resulting in significant easterly shear across most of the basin. This CAG led to the development of #Alberto .

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

3 months

Thirty-five years ago today, Typhoon #Gordon attained peak intensity. The strongest TC of non-tropical origins, Gordon possessed a 22C eye surrounded on both geostationary and polar satellite by a large and very symmetrical CDO typically only reserved for upper echelon storms.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

19 days

Microwave imagery shows a double eyewall structure for Hurricane #Kirk . IR loops show an increasingly ragged CDO as well.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 year

A symptom of the ongoing El Niño, a strong Westerly Wind Burst is forecast over the tropical Pacific over the next week. This will significantly enhance cyclonic vorticity over the region, increasing the chances of tropical cyclone activity along both sides of the equator.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

4 months

Global models and their ensembles unanimously agree on an upper level anticyclone developing over the open Atlantic, an unusual sight for late June. This would allow for the development of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic deep tropics.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

16 days

Although sheared, the small eye of Hurricane #Milton has warmed in the last few hours and the CDO has become more organized. Preliminary aircraft data supports at least 100 knots/~952 mbar, which is a drop of nearly 25 mbar in 5 hours.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 year

Cyclone #Mocha has somewhat unexpectedly rapidly intensified throughout the day. A ring of <-75C convection has consistently rotated around. Microwave imagery reveals an eye, and latest IR frames reveal a warm spot. A potent ULAC to the east is aiding in its ventilation.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

3 months

Microwave and radar shows that Typhoon #Gaemi has vigorous core, with radar velocity data supporting at least 130 kt. However, they also show an outer eyewall, meaning an eyewall replacement cycle is underway.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 year

Following a messy and visible eyewall replacement cycle, Typhoon #Khanun has a very unique structure with a ~120 nm wide eye. The CDO is ragged yet uniformly distributed in a way that actually looks cool. I also like the banding both north and south of the eye.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

4 months

Hurricane #Beryl has cleared an eye overnight and has rapidly axissymmetrized over the last few hours. The eye is well-defined but will likely warm further over the next several hours. >=125 knots may be inbound.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

8 months

@madeformarch They probably have a good shot at the NIT with a 3-0 Q1/Q2 record tbf with solid (by NIT standards) metrics tbf. It’s the low majors that are killed by it.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

2 months

Hurricane #Gilma has organized significantly, with -70C and colder convection fully wrapping. The eye has become much better defined as a stadium effect is evident on visible and IR temperatures have reached ~15C. Category 4 inbound if Dvorak agencies agree on a T6.0?

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

2 months

Although objective estimates from ADT and others were impressive for the second peak of Hurricane #Ernesto , traditional Dvorak never yielded higher than 4.5 at synoptic frames (OW embedded in MG, frame in question is not LG embedded).

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

2 months

Rising motion has been centered over Africa for the last week or so. Normally this is a favorable configuration for Atlantic tropical cyclones, but upper easterlies from the convection is amplifying the tropical easterly jet so much that it is yielding significant easterly shear.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

3 months

Although quite convectively vigorous, the monsoon trough is displaced northward, limiting the time that disturbances that separate from the MT have to develop before moving into cooler SSTs. This northward displacement is common in inactive northeastern Pacific hurricane seasons.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

2 years

40 years ago, one of the most anomalous tropical cyclones, Cyclone #Nisha obtained peak intensity in the southeastern Pacific by 145W. This is one of the furthest SE major hurricanes on record, yet with its 21C eye and -80C cloud tops, is one of the strongest SPAC storms.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 year

Tropical Storm #Mocha is rotating convection from the downshear to upshear quadrant. Cirrus outflow is expanding, and a SSMIS pass reveals an inner core. Although its current structure ensures vulnerability to dry air intrusions, Mocha is making a run at hurricane status.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 year

@GoodmanHoops Who asked for this?

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

3 months

Invest #92W is organizing ahead of schedule. Anticyclonic outflow is established and deep convection is persistent, although the low-level center is elongated zonally.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

2 months

An EP -ENSO event shifts the sinking cell towards the Americas and rising motion further into the MC. This broadly allows for somewhat less wind shear over the tropical western Pacific and may explain a possible late season surge there. Backheavy 2013 also had a similar pattern.

Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

4 months

Although a traditional, strong La Niña appears less likely than a month ago, a pronounced cold tongue has developed off Central America, suggesting more of an EP -ENSO event. Ensemble means have consistently shown a +VP more focused on the eastern Pacific at longer ranges.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 month

Outside of Shanshan, Gilma, and Yagi, the tropics have been stunningly quiet for the last month considering it is peak season. I am not convinced that changes in the next 10 days despite model support in the west Pacific. ACE YTD of the big 3 is 206, likely near record lows.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

2 months

Global models and their ensembles show favorable shear environment that will aid development of whatever comes from the monsoon trough breakdown currently in the Central Atlantic once it reaches the western Caribbean.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

5 months

Upper troughing is forecast by the GEFS to persist over the Eastern United States, contributing to the persistence of a monsoonal gyre over Central America and the Gulf of Mexico. This gyre yields upper level descent that would increase shear over the tropical eastern Pacific.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

29 days

Tropical Storm #Helene has become much better organized today, with convection curling and radar showing hints of an inner core. As its outflow pushes back on troughing and Helene begins to interact favorably with a jet streak, significant intensification is likely.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

4 months

Despite significant (~20 it per HFS/ECMWF) sub-outflow layer shear, Hurricane #Beryl has only slightly weakened per aircraft observations, with latest satellite loops even showing a vortical hot tower rapidly progressing around the eye. The CDO is also expanding outward radially.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

3 months

Despite not necessarily favorable intraseasonal forcing, long and extended range GEFS and EPS show weak and divergent upper easterlies dominating the Atlantic in late August and early September, likely pointing to several long tracked tropical cyclones during that time.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 year

Annular Hurricane #Dora has remarkably maintained its intensity overnight. The CDO has shrunk and warmed slightly (likely in part because the tropopause can not support colder cloud tops) but the eye has warmed and dried while sustaining its circularity.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 year

Some key thoughts as Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Thursday. As many others have noted, it is in many respects a battle of climatic extremes, though I think there is a clear winner that should reduce the high end scenarios.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 year

Hurricane #Lidia is rapidly clearing an eye before landfall, with the IR temperature increasing from -50C to ~0C in an HOUR. Microwave imagery shows a symmetrical inner core with a well-defined eye and banding off to the northwest.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 month

Shower and thunderstorm activity in the western Caribbean has gradually consolidated over the last 24 hours. With upper level outflow becoming established and a divergent jet interaction expected to occur over the Gulf of Mexico, significant intensification is likely.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 year

The eye of Hurricane #Otis has quickly cleared and become more defined since aircraft left. The CDO has also symmetrized. Instantaneous DT is T6.5/127 kt. #Otis has a chance to reach Category 5 later tonight.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

4 months

Hurricane #Beryl is clearing cirrus from its eye, with a stadium effect started to become distinct. Although convection is still exhibiting a bursting pattern, the CDO has quickly organized. Latest aircraft data supports winds of 110-115 knots and a pressure of ~964 mbar.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

4 months

20 years ago today, Typhoon #Dianmu peaked in intensity as one of the strongest typhoons on record. Although the small eye and lack of polar imagery makes assessing the intensity of Dianmu challenging, its upper level outflow is unrivaled of any tropical cyclone on record.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 year

Hurricane #Otis continues to intensify at an alarming rate, with the CDO becoming noticeably more symmetrical in recent frames. The eye temperature is only -22C but the location of GOES 16 means it is viewing the storm from an angle and likely is underestimating the temperature.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

6 months

@LakersNation They’re tired of Darvin Ham.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

17 days

Once the vortical hot tower in the south wraps around, it is likely that the eye of #Milton will begin to clear and pressures will rapidly fall. Aircraft recognizance wind and radar suggests the wind field is tight and symmetrical, which often foreshadows a very intense TC.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

2 months

Hurricane #Gilma has yet again made a bit of a comeback despite moderate to strong westerly shear as it straddles the 26C isotherm. Although objective aids are lower, SAB recently fixed T5.5/102 knots.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

4 months

Although intraseasonal forcing would otherwise favor tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific next week, downstream effects from the Mei-yu front will impart significant shear across most of the basin outside the South China Sea, where some ensemble members show activity.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

3 months

After briefly exhibiting a CCC structure devoid of banding, Tropical Storm #Gaemi has transitioned into a curved band signature, with curling convection, despite a strong (~20 kt) monsoonal-like shear profile. An afternoon SSMIS pass reveals a partial low-level inner core.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 year

Typhoon #Bolaven has maintained a remarkably high level of intensity overnight for a pinhole eye, with WV eye temperatures below -15C. Standard IR Dvorak estimates were T7.5/155 kts from all agencies while D Print exceeded 160 kts.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

4 months

Compact Tropical Storm #Aletta has a nice curved band signature with hints of an inner core, though convection is already decreasing in intensity as it approaches cooler waters with a strong inversion layer that make it difficult for a weak vortex to maintain deep convection.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

2 months

The monsoon trough in the open tropical east Pacific has extended westward with strong low level westerlies and is quite vigorous and vulnerable to breakdown as a result. With upper easterlies broadly shown on all guidance, tropical cyclones are coming.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 year

Typhoon #Angela presented an unusual structure for its peak intensity on October 5, 1989. A T7.5 with an 18C eye, #Angela resembled an annular tropical cyclone with a large eye and little banding more typical of a cooler SST and drier environment and a weaker overall intensity.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 year

Hurricane #Norma is maintaining its intensity contrary to expectations, with earlier aircraft data supporting an intensity of 105-110 knots, and if anything, the eye has begun warming over the last hour as convection has wrapped around. Microwave presentation has also rebounded.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 year

Very impressive how uniform and quickly the eye of #Mawar has cleared. Eye temperature is now ~20C, with most of the eye at least 10C. Throwback to the classic WPAC monsters that were frequent last decade and in the 80s and 90s. JTWC likely to significantly raise intensity at 6z.

Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 year

Typhoon #Mawar , following an increase in its organization, is starting to clear out a small eye. Latest frame warrants an instantaneous DT of T6.5. With excellent upper-level outflow and ~29C SSTs, additional intensification seems likely overnight.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 year

Deep convection surrounding the new eye of Hurricane #Hilary has wrapped around steadily and now that debris from the inner eyewall has cleared, IR eye temperatures have warmed. Approaching aircraft reconnaissance likely to find it stronger than earlier. Lorenzo-esque appearance.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 month

A similar cap likely explains the limited convection near the core of Tropical Storm #Francine . However, once this cap breaks, a similar intensification evolution to #Hone is likely, which will further be aided by an incoming jet interaction.

Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

2 months

The mid-level dry air induced cap that limited the deep convection of Tropical Storm #Hone for much of the day has broke, causing a rapid increase in organized deep convection. Weak low level wind shear has allowed a low level core with well-defined banding to exist, however.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 year

While IR imagery shows a double eyewall structure, microwave imagery of #Tej shows that the eyewall replacement cycle is done. Some re-intensification is possible in the short term before westerly shear takes its toll.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 year

The GFS is showing a formidable tropical cyclone with a potentially favorable jet interaction in the Bay of Bengal. The ECMWF and its ensembles are less aggressive in terms of intensity but still show a favorable interaction.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 year

Two years ago today, Hurricane #Felicia attained peak intensity near 14N 125W. A classic annular hurricane with little banding, Felicia sustained >=T5.5 for 2 days, and had 2 separate peaks of T6.5 with W surround, a nearly perfectly round CDO, and eye temperature of 18-19C.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

4 months

Although the core of Hurricane #Beryl has become better organized, much of the deep convection remains stuck in the upshear left quadrant due to persistent wind shear. Latest aircraft data suggests fluctuations in pressure but also supports an upgrade into Category 3 intensity.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

2 months

After dealing with a couple dry air intrusion, Hurricane #Gilma has become better organized this evening and its eye has become more defined. Typical of hurricanes approaching diurnal maximum in this region, the CDO has expanded and cooled while banding features have decreased.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

3 months

Strong low level convergence has aided the development of an increasingly zonally oriented rain band associated with newly designated Tropical Depression #05W . Inflow on the south side has become vigorous, suggesting that the low level center has become better defined.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

4 months

Tropical Storm #Alberto is starting to resemble a traditional tropical storm, with a large band mostly wrapped around the center and a central dense overcast cold cloud tops of -70C and -80C to the west of the center, which is still exposed.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

3 months

Ten years today, Hurricane #Genevieve attained peak intensity near the International Dateline. Although only a baseline T7.0, its symmetry is upper echelon and its small eye was uniformly warm enough to be depicted as WMG despite the high viewing angle on geostationary satellite.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

4 months

Global and regional models agree that the Central American Gyre will drench the region next week, with regional models showing isolated totals over 250 mm in the next 3 days. High low level moisture, high CAPE, and a lack of inversion will aid in thunderstorm development.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

2 months

Latest microwave imagery reveals that Tropical Storm #Yagi has a broad inner core. IR loops show the clearing of a banding eye, although large convective asymmetries make me skeptical of significant intensification in the next day ish.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 year

The IR eye temperature of Typhoon #Bolaven has now lingered near 15C for about an hour. The CDO remarkably continues to symmetrize and banding on the west has become more defined. #Bolaven is near or at Category 5 status, with the door open for it to become an upper echelon TC.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 month

Following earlier downshear reformation, Tropical Storm #Bebinca has rapidly organized over the last ~18 hours, with a burst of up to -95C convection ventilating against an upper low to the NW, temporarily reducing shear and allowing convective bursts to wrap around upshear.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 year

Five years ago today, Typhoon Kong-rey peaked in intensity. At peak, Kong-rey exhibited an IR brightness temperature of 22C while WV temperatures reached ~-8C. Furthermore, it had the classic large CDO and dual outflow channels.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

2 months

Hurricane #Gilma has gradually wrapped deep convection along the northeastern semicircle over the last 12 hours. Upper level outflow has expanded out of the north and the eye has partially warmed. Satellite intensity’s estimates generally support Category 2, though SAB fixed 5.5.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

2 months

Tropical Storm #Ernesto has quickly developed more pronounced banding features, likely aided by opening of a poleward outflow channel as it becomes better aligned with the ULAC to its north. Deeper convection is also increasing near the center, which will yield pressure falls.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

2 months

With the eye warming from -20C to >0C in the last 90 mins and becoming more defined as the CDO stabilizes, Typhoon #Yagi is on the brink of attaining Category 5 intensity. An AMSR2 pass does suggest an eyewall replacement cycle may be lurking, however.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 year

Typhoon #Mawar has remarkably only strengthened further today. The eye temperature is once again ~20C, and a there is a thick ring of cloud tops colder than -80 compared to just a partial ring earlier. The eye has gradually been drying, and the CDO has expanded radially.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

2 months

Tropical Storm #Shanshan has quickly developed a well organized central dense overcast. Cirrus outflow is expanding in all directions. A recent AMSR2 pass showed a vigorous mid-level inner core. Confidence in significant intensification once it destroys the ULL is increasing.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 year

ECMWF has downtrended on wind shear with Invest #95L . This would increase the likelihood of a long tracked significant hurricane, potentially wracking up >40 ACE.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

8 months

Hurricane #Hilda reached peak intensity on August 8, 2015. A small system that formed near 10N 135W during a super Niño in conjunction with a +PMM, Hilda exhibited a pinhole eye surrounded by -70C cloud tops. Officially assessed at 125 knots.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

2 months

The mid-level dry air induced cap that limited the deep convection of Tropical Storm #Hone for much of the day has broke, causing a rapid increase in organized deep convection. Weak low level wind shear has allowed a low level core with well-defined banding to exist, however.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

2 months

Although aircraft has not yet measured significant pressure falls, Tropical Storm #Ernesto has quickly developed a central dense overcast. With well established upper level outflow both poleward and equatorial, rapid intensification is distinct possibility over the next few days.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

3 months

Aided by a stronger than usual MJO passage, a tropical cyclone outbreak has occurred near Central America. From left to right, there is #Daniel , #Carlotta , #05E , #96E (should be classified today), and #Debby . #Daniel and 05E are likely to be absorbed by their larger counterparts.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

2 years

34 years ago today, Cyclone #Hinano cleared an eye at an unprecedented location of 27S 128W, easily the furthest southeast Pacific tropical cyclone on record. Not surprisingly, the cyclone went partially undetected as JTWC considers it ~35 kt at the first two images.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

1 year

Dual VHTs have rotated around the eye of Typhoon #Doksuri . which has also contracted and notably shrunk in size. Because the convection around the eye has thickened and cooled, it is now less vulnerable to dry air intrusions. Rapid intensification for its size inbound.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

2 months

Although close to Luzon, Tropical Storm #Yagi has quickly organized this morning, with a vigorous central dense overcast and a well-defined rainband to the west. Radar reveals a primitive eye. Not sure how the JTWC yielded T2.0.

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Dante Grasso

@Yellow_Evan

10 months

Cyclone #Alvaro has made landfall along western central Madagascar, likely at hurricane intensity, with a ragged eye evident on IR and microwave imagery.

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