Wayne Whaley @WayneWhaley1136 Twitter profile

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

10 months

EIGHT DAYS LIKE TODAY, Over the last 50 yrs, there have been 8 occasions where the Nasdaq followed a double digit year with a +0.5% loss on opening day of the next year. The following week was positive in each of those 8 cases. The two -1% cases were followed by +2% weeks.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

3 months

AN ANALYSIS OF FRIDAY'S VIX ACTION On Friday, I have the Volatility Index (Vix) closing at 23.39 which is its first +20 reading since October of 2023, an accomplishment which I felt merited a review. The 23.39 was a 25.82% increase from the prior day's 18.59 closing Vix price

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

8 months

A 25-0 NEXT YEAR (MARCH-FEBRUARY) - WHEN DECEMBER, JANUARY AND FEBRUARY ARE EACH POSITIVE

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

2 years

When a +4% January is Followed by a Negative February

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

3 months

WHEN A NEGATIVE 1ST TWO WEEKS OF AUGUST IS PRECEDED BY A +10% JANUARY-JULY One of 26 studies on 14 markets shared with commentary subscribers this am - waynewhaley.witterlester @gmail .com The S&P was up 15.8% in the first 7 months (Jan-July) of 2024 and, as of Aug11, is down

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 month

A NEW 12 MONTH HIGH IN SEPTEMBER - waynewhaley.witterlester @gmail .com On Thursday, September 19, the S&P closed at a new 12 Month High as well as an All Time High. Since 1950, there have been 29 years in which a 12 Month High was set in September. In those 29 prior cases,

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 year

THE FOURTH QUARTER S&P AFTER YEAR's VERY SIMILAR TO 2023... Tis not a prediction on the part of yours truly, but simply the sharing of a past tendency.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 year

THE MOTHER OF HEALTHY CORRECTIONS: The S&P is down 2.4% in the 1st 4 trading days of Aug after a 19.5% Jan-Jul. In all 12 prior cases of +10% JanJul's, followed by a neg 1st wk of Aug, the remainder of the yr was positive for a gaudy 8.4% avg gain, the last 3 cases each up +10%.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

9 months

TOY is a "Turn Of the Year" Barometer based on the S&Ps Nov19-Jan19 performance. The 2024 TOY is 7.22%. Since 1950 if TOY was > 3%, the next year (Jan19-Jan19) was 35-2 for an avg 16.5% gain with 2 single digit losses. Feb-April is 32-5 for an avg 3 mt gain of 4.23%

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 year

22 CONSECUTIVE POSITIVE 'END OF YEARS' (NOV15-DEC31), compliments of a +5% calendar year (Dec31-Nov15).

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

6 months

WHEN A FIVE MONTH S&P WINNING STREAK IS BROKEN With seven trading days remaining in the month of April, the S&P is currently down 5.46% for the month & likely facing the end of a five month winning streak with the rally that began on Oct 27 topping out at 27.6% on March 28.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

20 days

S&P 4TH QTRS AFTER JAN-SEPT IS +10% AND ALL 7 ROLLING JAN-SEPT QTRS ARE POSITIVE One of 26 studies shared with commentary subscribers last week. The S&P finished September up 20.8% for the first nine months of the 2024 calendar year while experiencing only one losing month in

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 year

17 CONSECUTIVE POSITIVE OCTNOV TURNs. Define the OctNov Turn as the last 2 trading days of Oct & first 2 of Nov which are the first 4 days of next wk. The S&P was down 2.5% last wk. The last 17 times, the wk before the OctNov Turn was down more than 1%, the Turn was positive.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

11 months

The S&P posted its 7th consecutive positive wk on Dec 15. Since 1950, I see 30 streaks of +7. The S&P is up 14.6% last 7 wks. Focusing on those 20 of the 30 that were up at least 7% I have the following forward results. The 1% moves over the next 4 wks were 14-1.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 year

THE 2ND HALF OF SEPTEMBER WHEN THE 1ST HALF WAS DOWN..... I do studies like this daily on 14 different markets,

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

11 months

A 30-0 NASDAQ TWO DAY TURKEY WRAP - Compliments of a Positive Trailing Week

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

6 months

A 13-0 NASDAQ SETUP FOR THE REMAINDER OF MAY - Compliments of a strong start to the Month The giveaway study from the 13 shared with commentary subscribers today. Over the last 50 years, the Nasdaq is 35-15 in the month of May for an avg/med gain of 0.86/1.44%. As of May

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

5 months

THE TOP TEN S&P SEASONAL PERIODS AFTER A +5% JANUARY-MAY. This week's giveaway study extracted from the 25 shared with commentary subscribers. With four trading days remaining in the month of May, the first five S&P months (January-May) of the year are up 11.2%. Over the

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

27 days

THE S&P AFTER THE CURRENT SIX MONTH PATTERN One of 26 studies on 14 markets shared with commentary subscribers this am. If the S&P doesn't incur a 1.6% loss on Monday, it will be the fifth consecutive positive month for the S&P dating back to the 4.2% loss in April. Since

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

2 months

SEPTEMBER'S IN +10% YEARS One of 28 studies on 14 markets shared with commentary subscribers this am - waynewhaley.witterlester @gmail .com As of August 24th, the S&P is up 18.13% for the 2024 calendar year. In the last 50 yrs, I see 22 yrs in which the S&P was similarly up at

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

3 months

PAST S&P PERFORMANCE DURING JULY15-DEC31 TIME FRAMES OF INTEREST AFTER A TOY HAT TRICK One of 29 studies on 14 different markets shared with commentary subscribers this am. It has long been my observation that the manner in which the equity market traverses from one year to

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

4 months

THE SUMMER RALLY One of 28 new studies on 14 different markets shared with commentary subscribers this morning. This study looks at the S&P performance from June19-July23 in those 29 years of the last 40 in which the trailing Quarter, March19-June19 was positive. As of June

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

9 months

WHEN THE NOV-JAN QTR IS +10%. The S&P finished the Jan-Nov Qtr up 15.5%. Since 1950, if the Jan-Nov Qtr was +10%, the following six mts were 14-0 for an avg 11.3% gain. The study provides Toy type confirmation for the Bullish Jan19 (35-2) Toy Barometer Signal (See Jan19 post).

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

8 months

WHAT WOULD A NEGATIVE MARCH MEAN? The S&P is struggling to get out of the gate in this first week of March. There is a lot of month left but in regard to the possibility the market is trying to ring a bell at the top. Dec was up 4.4%, Jan up 1.6% and Feb 5.2%. Since 1930,

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

2 years

Since 1950, there have been 8 yrs in which the rolling yr, Feb21-Feb21 was down more than 10%. All eight were preceded by a 1st 3 wks of Feb which were negative. If the next 3 wks of Feb (Jan31-Feb21) are positive, it will, imo seal the deal, for the Jan Barometer enthusiast.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

9 months

A 21-5 S&P SETUP FOR JAN27-FEB15, compliments of a +5% trailing Quarter. The S&P is up 18.78% over the current trailing , Oct27-Jan27, Quarter, which has historically given the S&P a push into mid February.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

11 months

Thanksgiving Week's Matter - The Whaley Thanksgiving Barometer. I provide this type of analysis each week for my commentary subscribers on 13 different markets.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 year

A 12-0 4TH QUARTER STUDY IN YRS VERY SIMILAR TO 2023, specifically Jan-July up at least 10% and then August-September Negative.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 year

THE 1958 ANALOG - Plus the ten years which look the most like the first six months of 2023, from my perspective.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

10 months

THE S&P AFTER A POSITIVE GRINCH AND A NEGATIVE FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY - A precursor to developing Turn of the Year (Toy) Stories

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

5 months

A NEW HIGH IN MAY - MAKES THE FALL RALLY A STRONG PLAY I shared 28 new studies with my commentary subscribers this am plus 14 prior studies in the Addendum which are still in play. Below is this week's give away selection. On Wednesday, May 15, 2024, the S&P closed at 5308.15

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

8 months

OPEX MATTERS - ESPECIALLY QUARTERLY'S... The market tends to gravitate toward levels where transactions reside. As you get closer to Opex, the market acts with greater urgency as she senses much of the existing open interest will disappear after expiration with many an option

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

3 months

AUGUST IS KING OF THE COUNTER TREND MONTHS As of July 20, the S&P is up 9.5% for the pre August Quarter of May-July. Since 1950, the month of August is 20-26 when the trailing Quarter was positive for an average monthly loss of 0.65%. August is the first month of the calendar

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

11 months

The "WHALEY - GRINCH BAROMETER" is the 2nd of the 3 components of my Holiday Barometer and similar to the Grinch craves a miserable Xmas wk. Define the Grinch Barometer as the S&Ps performa over the 3 trading days before and after Xmas (6 days). Stay tuned for Grinch spottings.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

5 months

JUNE TENDS TO BE TRUE TO THE TREND The S&P has a well deserved reputation for being flat as a pancake in the summer with June no exception, coming in at 31-19 over the last 50 years for a pedestrian type, 0.52% avg monthly gain... However, if the market is behaving well, the

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

2 months

FIVE PERCENT SUMMERS One of 27 new studies shared with commentary subscribers this am - waynewhaley.witterlester @gmail .com For this study, define the summer as the three months, June-August. The S&P normally exhibits pedestrian type performance in the summer, averaging a

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

10 months

I do a million scans like this each day on 14 markets. Define Xmas wk as the 5 trading days before Xmas. The last 50 yrs, Nasd is 34-16, Xmas wk, avg +0.69%. The 2023 Nasd is +41.5%. If trailing yr >10%, Xmas wk 24-5, avg 1.38%. 1% moves 15-2. Since 1980, 22-3, avg 1.59%.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 year

If the current 4.78% Aug correction holds true for 9 more trading days, it would, according to this angle, strengthen the Bullish case as 26 of the 29 prior. cases of 5 month win streaks being broken saw higher prices 6 mts later. The 10%, six mt, moves were 12-0 to the positive

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

6 months

SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY OBSERVATIONS One of 17 new studies shared with commentary subscribers this weekend.... An astute observer once noted, that to facilitate the writing of a pop music hit, one is well advised to stumble onto a hook line that could be used to catch the

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

4 months

THE S&P/NASDAQ IN THE WEEK OF JULY8-15 WITH TAILWINDS. One of 27 studies on 14 markets shared with commentary subscribers this morning. I save the Picasso's for Patreons but designated this one as the weekly giveaway selection. Over the last 50 years, the Nasdaq is 37-13

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

7 months

A 14-0 MID APRIL S&P SETUP IN YEARS SIMILAR TO 2024 We are entering National Accountants Week which is normally a period that, for whatever reason, has traditionally been friendly to equities. I see the S&P, 35-15 from April 11-20 over the last 50 years for an average gain of

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 year

AUGUST IS THE KING MONTH OF COUNTER TRENDINESS... The trend is truly the friend of most months but since 1950, August has gone against the direction of the trailing Qtr in 45 of those 73 (61.6%) years. On the other hand, February has followed the Qtr trend in 65% of years.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 month

THE WEAKEST SEASONAL S&P WEEK OF THE YEAR One of a million studies on 14 different markets shared with subscribers this am - waynewhaley.witterlester @gmail .com The weekly performance measure used for comparison is an avg of the weeks of interest over the last 50 years, which,

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

9 months

Feb is historically a coin toss mt but my conditional seasonal studies suggest a tailwind normally pushes the rally into mid Feb. Below is the performance for the 2 wks prior to the 3 day, Presidents Day weekend in those 21 yrs of the last 50 preceded by a +5% Qtr. PDay is Feb19.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

10 months

THE S&P BROKE A 9 WEEK WIN STREAK LAST WEEK. Normally any pullback in a strong advance will scan out as a buy signal. I posted 8 week advances instead of 9, so as to have +10 data points. The Toy aficionados will argue that the first week of the year is not just any week.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

4 months

A 17-1 SUMMER RALLY SETUP COMPLIMENTS OF A JUNE OPEX FLIP FLOP One of 25 studies on 14 markets shared with commentary subscribers this am. If you are a money manager you would appreciate this weekends body of work. email me for a perusal. Define the Qtr 2 OpEx cycle as the

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

7 months

THE S&P IN APRIL WHEN THE FIRST QUARTER WAS POSITIVE... Dependent upon your measure of merit preference, April or November has been the best S&P month of the year over the last 50 years with both posting 36-14 won-loss records with November having a slight edge in average

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

10 months

# 2 PROPHETIC STUDY OF 2023. January posted a +6.18% S&P month. We observed that since 1950, +4% Januarys were 21-0 in the following 8 months, February-September. Make that 22-0 now for an avg 8 month gain of 10.04% with 19 of those 22 months +3%.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

7 months

THE CORRELATION MODEL SEES A NEGATIVE LAST WEEK OF MARCH FOR THE S&P. Provided a time frame of interest, my correlation model calculates the Correlation Coefficients (-1 to +1) for the past performance of 4165 different time frames over the prior 3 months vs the performance for

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 year

A 16-1 Mid Summer Rally Courtesy of the June Opex Flip Flop

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 year

5 PCT WKS ABSENT A +2% DAY. In an effort to balance the plethora of bullish thrust studies that will be in circulation this wk, I submit the following. Last wks 5.8% advance came without a 2% day. I see 16 of those since 1950. The forward results, were of the pedestrian variety.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 year

The # 6 Multi Market Seasonal Trade of the Year on my Top 100 list is Short Yields (Long Bonds) from Nov6-26. 30 Year Yields have declined over this time frame in 30 of the last 40 yrs. The 10 Basis Point moves are 5-22 to the downside.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

10 months

TOY2MT BAROMETER STATUS: The S&Ps behavior as it traverses calendar yrs has proven acumen in forecasting forward direction. I presently follow 9 Toy (Turn Of Yr) models. Far from the best, but the simplest and most well known is the Toy2Mt based on S&P performa from Nov19-Jan19

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 year

The odds of 1985 style 4th Qtr finish are extremely unlikely but the Bulls have to like setup comparisons. Both were recipients of Jan thrust as well as a late summer correction which much of our studies suggest is normally Fourth Qtr friendly. The similarities are worth noting.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 year

JUNE SWOON/MID SUMMER RALLY WITH A POSITIVE TAIL WIND. Define the Swoon Setup Qtr as Mar19-Jun19, the Jun Swoon as Jun19-27 & Mid Summer Rally as Jun27-Jul23. 2023 Swoon Setup is +12.6%. Last 30 yrs, a positive Swoon Setup is followed by a 4-18 Swoon and a 19-3 Mid Summer Rally.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

2 years

Over the last 50 yrs, there have been 29 in which the Feb Options Expiration (3rd Friday in Feb) coincided with the three day Presidents weekend. The Nasdaq is 7-22 in those first 3 days of following wk for avg loss of 0.61%. The S&P is 9-20 in the same spot.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

11 months

The S&P is up +7.34% over trailing mt (Oct24-Nov24). Since 1983, if Thanksgiving wk concluded on Friday up +3% for the trailing month, following Monday was 2-13 for avg loss of 0.57%.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

2 years

S&P Vix reached 29.91 today. Attached are the 18 trades since 1990, buying the S&P on a Vix Close above 32 and selling on a Vix Close below 20.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 year

The S&P in the Last Four Months of the Year in a 2023 Type Price Setup

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

9 months

A 17-0 SETUP FOR NEXT QUARTER (MARCH-MAY) - When an above avg (+2.5%) trailing December-February Quarter catches a February ATH. (This study would, of course not be applicable to 2024 if the current trailing Qtr were to come in under 2.5%.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

10 months

Reviewing the years studies, let's pull out what turned out to be the five most prophetic, starting with the observation in October of 2022 that November-April of Mid to Pre Election Years was 18-0 since 1950. Make that 19-0 now for an avg six mt gain of 14.8%.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

7 months

THE MARCH POST OPEX WEEK - WHEN THE TREND IS YOUR INVERSE FRIEND. Friday, March 16 was the March & First Quarter, S&P Options Expiration which occurs on the 3rd Friday in March. Over the last 40 years, the S&P is 14-26 in the week after the March Opex for an avg loss of 0.05%.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

2 years

The Bulls among us who fancy Seasonals are going to be all over April as she is 17-1 in Post 1950, PreElection Years for an average monthly gain of 3.48% which btw, is not a prediction from yours truly, but simply an observation of a historical tendency.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

10 months

When 75% of the players are bullish the market will throw sharp quick sell offs at us to see which bulbs can be shaken off the tree.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

2 years

A study shared with commentary subscribers last weekend. January was up 6.17%. Since 1950, if January was up at least +2%, April was positive in 28 of those 32 setup years for an avg monthly gain of 3.02%. See below for details.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

10 months

If Grinch is negative and December positive, January is 10-0 avg gain of 3.9%. 3% moves in January, 7-0 to the positive side.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

11 months

HISTORICAL S&P PERFORMANCE IN THE LAST 28 ROLLING WEEKS OF THE YEAR WHICH OCCURRED AFTER A +10% JAN-NOVEMBER. I see 2023 up 18.75%, as of Nov 26. I see 26 yrs where the S&P was up +10% for the yr at the end of November. I have similar December rolling wk studies for 14 markets

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 year

THE TEN WORST S&P WEEKS OF THE YEAR. The glass half full crowd reminds us that although September is the only month which is net down on avg over the last 50 yrs, there have been six, +4% Septembers, four of them occurring in succession, 1995-1998.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 year

The End of Year (November-December) when August-October is Negative inside a Positive January-October. 2023 is up 10.02% through Oct21. August-October21 is down 7.95%.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

8 months

Last 50 yrs, there have been 29 in which Feb Opex and Pres Day coincided. The Nasd was 7-22 in the 3 days after for avg 3 day loss of 0.69%. If prior wk was neg, Nasd 1-11 on that Tuesday, avg -1.04%. 1% moves for S&P and Nasd, combined 0-16 on Tuesday.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

6 months

S&P PERFORMANCE AFTER THE FIRST NEGATIVE MONTH - FOLLOWING A TOY HAT TRICK This is one of seven S&P studies shared with my commentary subscribers this weekend, plus a Corn, Oil and Pound Study along with the seasonal history of 14 different markets over each of the next ten

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 year

And now the race begins to see who can post the most bullish thrust signal.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

2 years

I anticipate that next weeks market direction will be driven by 1) Developing news on the banking front, 2) Fed action and commentary on Wednesday and 3) A healthy level of pessimism in the markets. With acknowledgement of such, I share a seasonal study for your consideration.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

9 months

THE 1985-86 VS 2023-24 TOY ANALOG. The negative 1st wk of the yr (-0.13%) in the midst of a strong 2 Mt Toy (Nov19-Jan19 = 6%) positions this yr in a very small group of prior Toy setups. But I couldn't help but notice we look a lot like 1985-86 which doesn't help the Bear Case.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 year

A 21-2 NASDAQ SETUP FOR THE WEEK OF JULY 8-15, COURTESY OF A +5% TRAILING QUARTER....... This study is a little more bullish than the author and I'll claim messenger status on this one. Let's see how it plays out.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 year

A 17-1 AUGUST-DECEMBER, COMPLIMENTS OF +10% S&P & NASDAQ COMBOs FOR JANUARY-JULY

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 year

The best market call of my lifetime. Friday, Oct 16, 1987, before the Oct 19, Black Monday 20% crash. I was watching this live at the time. Martin Zweig on Wall Street Week, scroll over to the 6 minute mark.

Part 1 - Before the Crash - Wall Street Week October 16, 1987

First 10 minutes of Wall Street Week episode from Friday October 16, 1987 just prior to the market crash on black Monday. Hosted by Louis Rukeyser, guests in...

www.youtube.com

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

4 months

THE LAST 40 YEARS PATTERN MATCHED TO THE CURRENT LAST 12 MONTHS This is one of 26 studies shared with commentary subscribers this week as we do each week.... When writing price pattern matching models, one can seek to match trailing Years, Qtrs, Mts, Wks, Days, Hours, Minutes or

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 year

Thx to desktop computers, the internet and social media, everybody and their uncle knows the S&P is supposed go down next week. Hey why don't we all act real smart and sell it on Friday instead.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

13 days

A COMPARISON OF THE HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE IN THE 12 S&P MONTHLY OPEX WEEKS Friday will be the third Friday in October which corresponds to a Monthly Option Expiration. Given major collapses in the S&P during the Oct Opex week in 1987 and 1999, it would be questionable to

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

11 months

I think you need to be careful with the equity seasonals next wk. I see S&P 28-12 in the Dec opex wk last 40 yrs but its a very early opex this yr falling on the 15th. I also see S&P 16-24 from Dec 8-15 with the Nasd 14-26 for an avg 1.09% loss from Dec8-15. caution

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 year

THE 4 QUARTERLY OPTIONS EXPIRATIONS. Friday, Jun 16 is one of 4 Quarterly Opex which occur on the 3rd Friday of March, June, Sept and Dec for the financial markets. With the exception of Dec which gets hit with end of yr factors, they tend to have distinguishable characteristics

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

8 months

Not sure the significance of such has had time to sink in but of the 10,000s of scans I have performed in my lifetime the DJF Barometer signal posted Friday night is the only +25 case study in my domain perfect back to 1930.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

11 months

WILL THERE BE END OF YEAR TAX SELLING? I can't call the specific causality but there is a tendency toward a pullback in the market in the 2nd Qtr of Dec which hits the Nasdaq a little harder than the S&P. The Nasdaq 14-26 in Dec8-15, last 40 yrs for an avg 1.09% loss.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

10 months

THE FINAL 2023 GRINCH STORY

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

4 months

The last 50 years, the Nasdaq is 40-10 on the second Friday in July for an avg 0.52% gain. The 1% moves were all to the positive side 8-0.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 year

SEPTEMBER S&P INTRAMONTH SEASONAL EVALUATION - Last 50 Years

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

11 months

idk guys, 7 positive weeks in a row, i can't find a year that finished with more than 6, six done in 1971, four other yrs with five,

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101

Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 year

@WalterDeemer @mark_ungewitter Hey guys , thx for the mention. I'm still cogitating on it. But other factors imo probably work to give this signal a good shot. The S&P is 38-12 over the last 50 years from Oct27-Jan27 for avg 3 mt gain of 4.26% so it's seasonal timing is bull friendly.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

11 days

What a f**ked up presidential election we are confronted with. Neither candidate belongs anywhere near the White house. so frustrating. God help us, whoever gets elected.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 year

Over the last 30 years, the Nasdaq is 24-6 on the Monday of the August Option Expiration Week for an avg 0.47% daily gain. The S&P comes in at 22-8, 0.31%.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

6 months

THE STATUS OF THE 1985-86 VS 2023-24 ANALOG I ran a scan in January searching for years that had similar Turn of the Year (Toy) characteristics to 2023-24 and the scan suggested I take a good look at 1985-86. We can now add to the original January scan, the fact that similar

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

5 months

S&P PERFORMANCE AFTER A 4 MT UP, 1 MT DOWN, 1 MT UP - SIX MONTH PATTERN One of 27 studies shared with commentary subscribers this morning. The SP finished May up 4.8% putting the six month binary pattern in a 4 Up, 1 Down, 1 Up sequence. Since 1950, the following Quarter

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 year

REVISITING S&P PERFORMANCE AFTER A 4% JANUARY

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 year

Don't Sell a Dull Market Short. The S&P failed to post a 0.5% daily move last wk. The below case set is based on a detailed price pattern match routine which scans for the price patterns in the past 30 yrs which most closely resemble the current time periods price pattern.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

10 months

# 3 PROPHETIC STUDY OF 2023 - BREAKING A 5 MT WIN STRK. On Aug 19, we noted that since 1950, there had been 29 prior 5 mt S&P win strks and when those stks were broken, 26 of the 29 saw higher prices 6 mts later. 5 mts after the Aug loss, the S&P is +5.76% in line to make it 27-3

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

10 months

# 5 PROPHETIC STUDY OF 2023 : In mid November, we noted that the last 22 years in which the S&P was up at least 5% on Nov 15, the rest of the year was positive. With the S&P up 6.19% with two trading days remaining in 2023, we can add a 23rd to the list.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

8 months

As constructive as most of my studies are, I still maintain that with 5% risk free yields available, it still makes a great deal of sense to keep a reasonable percentage of your assets in short term yields or similar risk free type investments as you really never know when a

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

8 months

If you're in the business of promoting long equity exposure, you gotta love thrust signals as they never give sell signals. Just come up with a handful of variations of those babies and you're set for life. I like the market here, just a note for future reference.

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Wayne Whaley

@WayneWhaley1136

1 year

A COMPARISON OF S&P PERFORMANCE IN THE 12 MTLY OPEX WKS. Given major collapses in Oct Opex performance in 87 & 99, it would be difficult to crown Oct as King of Opex Wks, but bottom line stats compare favorably with other strong performances in March, April and December.

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