Associate Director, Ag Economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, drone enthusiast🪂, history buff. Looking into the history of food crisis during wars.
ABARES out this morning with latest crop estimates: 25.4mmt for wheat, 10.5mmt for barley and 5.2mmt for canola nationally. That’s down vs last year: 36%, 26%, 38% respectively.
#agchatoz
@ABARES
CBOT WHEAT UP 8% overnight. UKR ports hit by RUS missile strikes, 3rd party countries hesitant to provide vessel safety. RUS declares parts of Black Sea as hazardous - says any vessels moving to Ukrainian ports will be considered carrying weapons (regardless of flag)
#agchatoz
Is Russia releasing the wheat bulls? Russian ag ministry is now going to be dictating how much and what crops will be planted. Governments dictating to farmers what to plant and how much rarely goes well….
#agchatoz
#wheat
#government
#trade
#food
#grain
#tradewar
Canada gov just released its latest drought monitor map as of July 31st and it is horrendously dry. For context, Alberta and Sask account for 89% of barley and 77% of wheat area according to the USDA. Harvest should be ramping up from now to go to Nov. See maps below.
#agchatoz
Is Germany going to remove crops as an input for biodiesel and hence reduce AUS canola purchases? Probably not. But here are some facts about the news.
#canola
#rapeseed
#biodiesel
#germany
Root zone soil moisture is drying up very quickly on all coasts of Australia (below from BOM). SA dryness is accelerating very quickly. Are farmers in SA seeing any notable impact so far? NSW dry spot getting bigger quickly too. Dryness in eastern Vic spreading west.
#agchatoz
Turkey is the worlds largest exporter of wheat flour and 4th largest importer of wheat (2021 trademap data). Initial info on Türkiye earthquake/floods impact on wheat sector
#agchatoz
#wheat
#grain
#earthquake
#flour
#food
Aussie canola prices continue trending higher as Canadian crop deteriorates and new Canadian crush capacity comes online in early 2024. To early to peg a production number to canada but the downgrades are clearly being incorporated into Canadian prices. Almost $1,000/tonne.
30 second crop progress update from the Geraldton zone in mid-west Western Australia. Gerladton zone is predominately wheat country and cropping area accounts for 16% of total WA area.
#agchatoz
A fair bit of widespread rain heading for AUS in the next 8 days, including SA & WA. Fingers crossed some of that off-coast rainfall actually moves through coastal cropping areas.
#agchatoz
First UK day done. To answer what you’re thinking, no, I do not need 4 screens…
Latest WASDE: nothing too exciting, Arg crop production down, Brazil slightly up to cover for it. UKR corn exports revised 2mmt higher. Eyes are on the 23/24 figures to be released May 12.
Bloody Heck! Assuming that Russian crop is worsening due to drought, Brazil flood impacts getting worse too. Haven’t heard about Ukraine export flows slowing. This is a proper rise… UP 21% since the March 18 lows…
#agchatoz
The wheat 2023 outlook at first looks lower than last year but you have to remember the context of where we are: global stocks remain low and markets are more vulnerable than usual to left field shocks
#agchatoz
#wheat
#harvest
#grain
Checkout this 5 minute read on seasonal conditions around the country heading into planting. Got feedback? shoot it through!
#agchatoz
#wheat
#crop
#grain
The most attentive and excited group I’ve ever presented to about grain and fert. The promise of a donut for the best question kept the conversation flowing with no pauses. A question about how lightning is made caught me a little off guard, I’ll be honest…
#agchatoz
@RabobankAU
Offshore phosphate and potash prices continue to come off. The upcoming 2022/23 Rabobank crop report will delve into all things farm inputs: from diesel to fertiliser and agrochemical prices. We'll also be looking into labour and machinery order challenges.
#agchatoz
#fertiliser
Crops in Bullaring Western Australia (central wheat belt). While crop yields vary significantly, overall looking like an above average crop in this patch. Some pockets looking better than last year.
#agchatoz
“A whitepaper has been presented to the Federal Government which aims to guide policy *away* from curbing the use of nitrogen in agriculture in order for Australia to meet its targeted reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.”
Central to Southern NSW will play an important role this year considering the drying north. Will be sharing today and rest of the week what the crop looks like, what that means for market dynamics and pricing. Stay tuned
#agchatoz
Going through my old phone and found this stunning photo of a rainbow over a canola field from the Eyre Peninsula. This was just after the Cleve Field Days last year
#agchatoz
2023 market factors to watch for
#wheat
: North America Drought, Black Sea exports, RUS crop size, freight availability, local season & local crop size
#agchatoz
#food
Chatting with
@BrookeNeindorf
from
@ABCRural
about why the Australian grains is in a great position moving forward despite all the volatility snd uncertainty globally.
#agchatoz
The 2014 Crimean conflict saw CBOT
#wheat
prices rise 15% between late Feb & Mar. In early 2022, even prior to any conflict, prices are already 10% higher. If exports out of Ukraine are disrupted, Australia may see further increased demand for wheat from Asia in 2022
#agchatoz
East coast APW1
#wheat
prices are trading up to a premium of $90-100/tonne over global (CBOT) prices given the drying conditions up north. After traveling through central New South Wales this week I question whether large premiums further sth are justified just yet
#agchatoz
Chatting to
@TaraDeLand
about all things grain and wool on
@ABCRural
. Grain price outlook looks positive while wool outlook has some clouds gathering on the horizon. Check out our latest monthly
Brilliant to speak to the future growers of Australia at
#IG22
alongside global geopolitical & economic strategist Michael Every virtually from Singapore and global grains strategist Steve from Saint Louis Missouri in the US
#agchatoz
#wheat
@GrainGrowersLtd
@RabobankAU
#trade
1 minute update on what we’ve heard/read about the Ukrainian dam explosion and impact on grain markets. (We’re not in Ukraine so take this with a grain of salt….)
#agchatoz
#wheat
#kakhovska
Canadian ICE canola front month up again overnight to A$969/tonne. That's up an astounding A$80/tonne in 3 days or +8.9% as their market continues to assess crop damage on the ground from last weeks weather events.
#canola
#rapeseed
#agchatoz
#oilseeds
#agriculture
#canada
Very mixed response from farmers on crop yields in Western Australia’s Gerladton zone following today’s Midwest expo. Responses range from below average to average to above average. Going to be a very mixed year.
#agchatoz
How much did global wheat prices rise the last time the world lost access to all Black Sea wheat? 45% between Oct-1914 and Feb-1915. How much of an impact will it have this time? Listen to this podcast to find out :
#agchatoz
#wheat
@RabobankAU
Had some interesting conversations yesterday in
#Binnu
. Questions from the audience included what impact a large harvest/ congested supply chains will have on prices, and when could investment boost export capacity (inland and at port - whether private or public).
#agchatoz
Environmental regulation is a painful and touchy subject for all farmer, regardless of whether they produce wool or canola. Following a fiery question from an audience member at Lucinadale SA field days, I thought I’d make this video of why we do what we do in AUS.
#agchatoz
Deviating wheat markets in farmers favour this year? AUS wheat markets are starting to trade on par with global levels and even at small time intervals above global level. Check out this video to find out why. Follow to see tomorrows video on factors to watch.
#agchatoz
#wheat
Polish canola/rapeseed crops looking good. We’re in for another large, possibly I’ve heard rumored record, EU crop harvest mid year which limits near term demand for AUS canola. 2024 Canadian canola crush capacity still on its way.
#agchatoz
Wheat production volume prospects for the year ahead look improved in Europe, Canada and possibly the US while big question marks remain over Ukraine and Russia. Tomorrow I’ll tie this into the
#wheat
outlook for 2023.
(I know it looks like I’m about to sneeze…)
#agchatoz
China delays decision on AUS barley by a month. They just want to see first how Canada’s crop turns out presumably given the dry conditions during their growing season. That or maybe their below expectations economic recovery has translated to less beer demand…
Checkout how much AUS feed barley is rocketing. Holy smokes. WA prices especially..
Source: Bloomberg 2023. Below is track for east coast and FIS for WA.
#agchatoz
#barley
Info on Canada’s drought levels, where barley is grown in Canada and when harvest is. Will be interesting to see what the outcome of China’s anti-dumping decision will be in August, and it may be dependent on malt barley availability out of Canada.
#agchatoz
This canola crop in the south west UK is expected to be roughly 5 tonnes/hectare. On average the area has 500-700mm rainfall annually and 200-220kg of nitrogen is applied per hectare.
#agchatoz
RaboResearch AUS has two new analysts. Follow
@victor_agri
for everything farm inputs related and
@Edward_McGeoch
for wool and cotton updates. For horticulture checkout
@piapiggott
. Globally we have over 70+ analysts, reach out for any questions.
@RabobankAU
New Podcast Channel -‘Commbank Agri Podcast’ - weekly insights on global grain markets and what what it means for Australian farmers and industry.
#agchatoz
#wheat