In 2015 I decided on a whim to check out Tesla's battery swap station that was earning the company 9 figures in California ZEV credits, and found it wasn't real. Instead Tesla was using diesel generators to charge cars. Here's how this changed my life 🧵
The people who are saying this constitutes another Elon Musk failure simply don't realize that Hyperloop did exactly what is what intended to do: bleed off support for high-speed rail.
First: MUSK'S KEY SKILL IS CONTROLLING INFORMATION. It's not just crafting appealing narratives about himself and his companies, but also silencing anything that contradicts them. Tesla's entire history is lined with NDAs, backed by sheer terror of what Musk will do when cornered
A year later I found another big cockroach: Tesla was hiding defects by requiring customers sign NDAs in exchange for free repairs. This cut off the auto safety regulator's only independent source of information about defects. This led to a couple of important lessons...
What happened next taught another lesson: MUSK FANS DON'T CARE ABOUT FACTS. I was mobbed by online attacks that could not be dissuaded or mitigated by facts. My claims had evidence and his didn't, yet hardly anyone knows my reporting and his 2016 lies are still repeated today.
As I realized this, and as I realized that Musk and Tesla were on a trajectory toward increasingly implausible and fraudulent claims (which massively enriched Musk), I realized: TESLA IS NOT AN AUTOMOTIVE STORY, IT IS A CELEBRITY STORY. Faith in Musk personally was what mattered
If celebrity journalists smell Musk's blood in the water and start a feeding frenzy, they will find more cockroaches. Why? Because Musk's history makes one lesson undeniable: HE DOES NOT BELIEVE THE RULES APPLY TO HIM. That is the core belief of every abuser.
My book made some key claims that have proven true: Tesla can't make affordable cars, Tesla can't make its "Full Self-Driving" work, Autopilot has real safety issues, Tesla is fundamentally weak on manufacturing, and more. Here's the hardest lesson: NONE OF THAT HAS MATTERED.
In short: TESLA IS A CONFIDENCE GAME. Confidence in one man and the image he so ruthlessly controls is what holds it all together. Understanding why Musk's dreams are bullshit is hard (learning about manufacturing and AI is cool though!), but anyone can grasp a person's character
That terror comes from another lesson: MUSK DOESN'T REFUTE, HE ATTACKS. I learned this after the NDA story, when an official Tesla blog post accused me of fabricating the reporting and doing so for financial gain. Zero evidence was offered to support this attack on my credibility
Up to that point I had been skeptical that any startup automaker could succeed. That view wasn't about Tesla, it was about the car biz. But what I found at Harris Ranch was shocking, a cockroach, and I decided to follow a life-changing instinct: THERE IS NEVER JUST ONE COCKROACH.
To wrap up: HAPPY HUNTING CELEBRITY JOURNALISTS! This is the moment for you to prove that what you do is as important to society as any business or political journalism. Musk's personal life is a cockroach-rich environment, and your stories will have impact that mine never did.
Journalists are like investors, but instead of money they bet their time and effort. What I saw at the battery swap station was so at odds with the image of Tesla in 2015, I knew there was a good chance investing in scrutiny of Tesla would pay off. It did.
I still think my reporting is important. Understanding cars, the car business, manufacturing, AI, autonomous driving tech and the other issues I cover in my book are critical to a better future. I hope more people choose to start learning about them now.
If Tesla printed cash like Amazon or Facebook, Musk's character and personality wouldn't matter. But Tesla has always been financially precarious and dependent on valuations based on Musk's dream weaving: saving the planet, self-driving cars, Mars colonies, etc
If you want to know why Tesla just showed off an unpainted vehicle, it's because their Fremont factory paint shop has 19 unresolved Clean Air Act violations. Look it up.
That is ultimately why my view has evolved from mere skepticism about Tesla as a business to a belief that Elon Musk demands firm justice: his impunity and ability to meme reality to his will is making his behavior worse all the time. HIS TRAJECTORY IS UNSUSTAINABLE.
Even more importantly: his abusive behavior, his impunity and the unfathomable wealth they have generated for him create incentives for everyone else to mimic his behavior. Even if you think Musk deserves special treatment, do you want a society where everyone acts like him?
Along my journey I have heard a lot of rumors, evidence of big cockroaches, that I chose not to hunt down because I wanted to cover the automotive/mobility tech story, not Musk's personal life. But his personal life, who he really is, is what actually matters here.
Like all human behavior, journalism has crowd dynamics. Every cockroach killed motivates other cockroach hunters to mount up, but celebrity journalism takes this to a new level. EVERY CELEBRITY STORY IS THE SAME: FIRST THEY ARE BUILT UP, AND THEN THEY ARE TORN DOWN
Two people dead, nobody in the driver seat. 6,000 lb experiments in half-baked, camera-only autonomy, capable of doing 0-60 in under 3 seconds, just roaming the streets. I love living in a SciFi dystopia.
Elon Musk's entire schtick now is making a demo, smirking about how the companies who have already done a lot of work to get past the demo stage have "hit the wall," and then never even getting far enough to hit the same wall before finding a buzzy new domain to repeat the cycle.
Some of the bad stuff that Elon Musk does seems to be motivated by greed, desperation or even malevolence, but a whole lot of it just seems to come from what Fitzgerald called "the vast carelessness" of the truly wealthy.
The Twitter interlude seems to fit in the latter category
Time Magazine got this one right. We live in depraved, acquisitive, intellectually bankrupt times and nobody embodies our wretched zeitgeist quite like this bloated sociopath. Literally the hero we deserve.
Just watch: today the ghouls will all be singing from the second stanza of their hymnbook. Today will be filled with cries of "it's just driver assistance" and "the driver is always responsible."
In a week they will all be back to "it basically drives itself! The future is now!"
We don't know what happened here, but we shouldn't be at all surprised that it has happened.
It's not just that a life-and-death experiment is allowed to play out, in the hands of amateurs, on public streets. It's that a chorus of ghouls cheers it to this inevitable conclusion.
Good morning, Elon Musk has been ordered to give a deposition in a trial because Tesla has been claiming that his (many) public statements about Autopilot's capabilities might have been deepfaked.
Seriously.
people really get behind the wheel of a two ton vehicle to engage in an activity that requires licensing and insurance and be like "how was I supposed to see this obvious concrete barrier that was literally designed to prevent me from killing my fellow humans?"
To everyone else, all I can say is: Tesla is not representative of the autonomous vehicle development space. They are an outlier, whose casual and callous disregard for the immense responsibility they are playing with disgusts AV developers as much as it does you (if not more).
Affordable cars are one of the core assumptions underlying this country, and I'm skeptical that they're ever coming back.
This is going to be a problem.
So we're canceling the only real affordable EV on the market, huh?
And we're retooling the line for electric trucks, huh?
Great, fantastic, then let's just dispense with the idea that EVs are more than just a posturing trend for the wealthy.
The cool thing about Elon Musk owning Twitter is that now everyone gets a taste of the quality and reliability that are hallmarks of the Tesla ownership experience.
I don't claim to speak for the left, but:
-union busting
-poor workplace conditions/safety
-SWATing whistleblowers
-repeated environmental violations (really)
-market manipulation
-unsafe automated driving development/deployment, even by the standards of an unregulated industry
If I had expected these numbers I would have credited
@parismarx
In the OP. I read Vance's book a bunch, but I was focused on boring auto industry stuff and missed this angle entirely.
Happy to have this confirmed: the goal of Hyperloop was to get California’s high-speed rail canceled. Musk and the Kochs, both trying to halt a transition away from automobiles.
For Musk, fantasy technologies are preferable to real solutions.
#cahsr
#highspeedrail
The two malfunctioning robot personalities: those that seek meaning through political organizing, and those that seek meaning through solitary transcendental experiences in nature.
I assume
@mtaibbi
will shortly be posting all the correspondence between
@elonmusk
and the Chinese/Shanghai Communist Party, related to the totally unique deal Tesla got to enter China without a local joint venture partner... no?
I've posted here about addiction from time to time over the years, but unfortunately that battle is now over. Last night, my little brother passed away after a decade of struggle, even as he was making incredible steps in recovery. Much love to everyone fighting this monster 💔
I'm not going to engage with any pushback on this today. I can't. If you want to spew angry elonisms at me, do all of us a favor and educate yourself instead:
In which "Full Self-Driving" responds to fanboy patter about its safety benefits by lunging directly at the nearest cyclist.
This would be absurdly heavy-handed if it were satire.
So, after Elon claimed that SBF "set off his bullshit meter," and implied he'd corrupted the justice system through political donations, it turns out that they're actually partners in Twitter! The Aristocrats!
Elon Musk became the richest man in the world in large part because of a "Full Self-Driving" scam that, in addition to defrauding consumers and investors, is making public roads less safe every day.
The incentives this creates for future entrepreneurs are terrifying to consider.
This is the scariest near-crash on Tesla Full Self-Driving Beta I've seen. The Tesla tries to turn directly in front of a train (light rail) in Denver.
New, by me: Tesla's newly-uncovered range deception is just the tip of the iceberg in a decade-long ruse to exploit our car-brained desire for a fleet decarb solution that requires no actual change.
Tesla making remarkable progress from "weirdo in a suit" to "janky demoware closely attended by three grown men," hard not to conclude that this company is going to dominate robotics
Musk's logic here is literally the opposite of post-Toyota Production System industrial logic. Better to move slowly and make as few mistakes as possible than be constantly flailing around at high speed. More proof that he is fundamentally poorly suited to auto manufacturing.
Over the past year or so I have wanted to believe that the Tesla story had turned a corner, and that long-overdue consequences had become inevitable. Today I find myself recommitting to the one thing that has been true all along: nothing is inevitable. Justice must be fought for.
I don't know who needs to hear this, but if the wealthiest people in your community kick off the bank run instead of stepping in to end it, what you have on your hands is not in fact "a community."
This is a super important point: unlike a lot of objectionable billionaires, Elon Musk's obscene wealth absolutely depends on public perception.
Keep dunking, keep sharing well-researched work on the reality behind his mythology. It's not just screaming into the void!
Ok so AMPU put some bits & pieces together and
-Elmu's wealth is almost 100% in stocks of co's he owns.
-Most of his co's value doesn't come from, like, actual earnings. It comes from "people think M*sk is good at business."
-Thus, the collapse of his image could bankrupt him.
Elon messed up with "Full Self-Driving" by taking the public's money, which has now obligated Tesla to maintain the façade that they are every going to actually solve the problem by providing regular updates to the demoware.
Don't expect such rookie mistakes going forward
What are the odds that the people who mistook a ponzi bubble for the future of currency could have mistaken a ponzi bubble for the future of cars?
Asking for a friend.
Proof that Tesla's most fundamental innovation is just not doing the years of exhaustive testing and validation that have been industry standard for decades.
It's so weird: wherever Tesla builds factories, worker injuries and environmental violations follow.
It's almost as if this is just the way this company does business.
NEW: When Texas gave Elon Musk $64 million to build Tesla’s new gigafactory, he promised to keep workers safe.
Instead, many suffered heat strokes, serious injuries, wage theft, and retaliation.
Now those workers are speaking on camera for the first time.
Elon just unfollowed Matt Taibi and Sam Altman, Kimball just unfollowed Ron DeSantis and the CDC (?).
I don't know what the Musk boys are going through, but damn are they going through it.
In other words, this isn't about humans or automation it's about the interaction of of the two. Behavioral psychology matters as much as hardware and software when designing these systems, and automation must serve the human not the other way around.
Provocative thread on the human-automation relationship, anchored by a provocative metaphor: the centaur. Question is, does technology serve the human (centaur) or does the human serve the technology (reverse centaur)?
We should be asking this about driver assistance systems...
Honestly, the fact that Tesla "Full Self-Driving" turns out to be a Theranos style "we just need a little more time" scam is actually a really good thing.
If Elon could actually deliver affordable, privately-owned Level 5 AVs, the congestion impacts would be out of control.
Good morning, countless bros stand ready to explain in coolly objective terms why Elon Musk is still the ultimate free speech chamption... you'll just have to manually surf over to their substacks, because links aren't working right here right now for some reason.
The richest man in the world memed a niche automaker into a trillion-dollar valuation by leveraging the public's ignorance, herd mentality, and capacity for self-delusion.
Truly, the quintessential American success story of our times.
I missed the anniversary (again) but it has officially been six years since Tesla released this "Full Self-Driving" video and began charging customers for the option.
Today, after six years of "just around the corner" hype, no Teslas are self-driving.
Y'all think this is a wild time, and most of you haven't even spent the last like 7 years trying to get people on this app to see how overrated Elon Musk is.
To everyone asking why I haven't moved to Mastodon: why on earth would I leave this platform, now that it has become the world's premiere Elon Musk dunking arena?
Not in my wildest dreams could I have hoped for this kind of renaissance in Elon dunking. I'm going to enjoy it.
One more batch of resources: here are links to
@NTSB
's investigation reports and hearing on Autopilot deaths. Driver monitoring and limiting use of the system on roads it's designed for would prevent these tragedies, but Tesla won't implement them
Here are the NTSB investigations of three fatal Autopilot crashes:
Josh Brown:
Jeremy Banner:
Walter Huang:
Watch the last NTSB hearing on Autopilot safety issues (Feb 2020) here:
You know how I know Teslas will never be "Full Self-Driving"?
Because the cameras are easily blinded by sun, rain, fog, mud and snow. Even humidity and temperature changes take them out. Also, the radar unit isn't heated so snow and ice can take it out.
Level 5 secured.
You know how I've been saying since 2016 that Tesla's comparison of raw Autopilot crash data to average human driver crash data is deceptive because it doesn't adjust for the safety of the operating domain (among other factors)?
@NoahGoodall
proved it!
The Tesla Hype Complex has become so big and so disconnected from reality that there are now Youtube channels with >100k subscribers that literally just make up new partnerships and products.
In retrospect, this was inevitable.
It’s been a great pleasure to help Tesla towards its goals over the last 5 years and a difficult decision to part ways. In that time, Autopilot graduated from lane keeping to city streets and I look forward to seeing the exceptionally strong Autopilot team continue that momentum.
Wow, it's almost as if the Tesla Semi is a half-baked stock pump prop, and not a vehicle that has actually been engineered and validated for the rigors of serious trucking.
5th
@Tesla
Semi hauled away. The Uptake of Semis breakdowns with the temperature fluctuations appears to be on a rise.
@elonmusk
care to comment on the development.
.
Would love to see $TSLA Semi challenge
@Hyliion
ERX.
2006: Buy a $100k Roadster so we can make a $50k Model S
2012: Buy a $100k Model S so we can make a $35k Model 3
2015: Um, here's a $100k Model X
2016: $35k Model 3 is real!!
2017: just kidding, it's not
2022: US Tesla avg price ~$65-$70k
2023: CHEAP TESLAS COMING SOON FR!
“It’s a horrible, frightening experience... They have robbed my family—myself and my wife—of so much money I couldn’t tell you, with things they said that we really believed would be real,”
Assessing Musk's mood is an all-consuming task for Tesla executives. They say there are a couple of different "Elons" and they are constantly trying to figure out which one they will be dealing with. This is the first I've heard about the Talulah Riley hair color metric though...
Well, at least all of Elon Musk's businesses are bulletproof profit machines that are in no way dependent on his popularity or personal credibility for survival.