Todd Sohn @Todd_Sohn Twitter profile

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

3 months

Come for the market takes, stay for the Seth Rogen impression. @TheCompoundNews

The Compound

@TheCompoundNews

3 months

TCAF 150 with @Todd_Sohn is out now on YT and podcast platforms! Enjoy🔥🎬 ⏯️ 🎙️

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

5 months

It’s a Semiconductor world

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

10 months

@JSeyff @EricBalchunas @psarofagis

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

With April’s conclusion, the S&P broke a 12 month losing streak with negative rolling 1yr returns. Similar observations and forward returns below. Rare occurrence.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

11 months

Cash is comforting, but opportunity cost is a real threat.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

3 months

Welcome to the blue zone: the top decile VIX readings, often associated strong forward equity returns. Expect more volatility though.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

A low VIX reading isn’t necessarily something to fear. It’s a typical characteristic of bull markets.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

What could go right for small-caps? Breaking a 17-month losing streak of consecutive negative 1yr price returns is a start.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

3 months

The current S&P drawdown of roughly -8% isn’t much of an outlier… It’s only when there’s less than a 5% drawdown that the environment is particularly strange.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

11 months

A low VIX isn't necessarily something to fear. Decent forward equity returns, more often than not.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

7 months

600 days and counting for small-caps... 4th longest streak without a new high.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

Hard to believe AAPL + MSFT were just 3% of the S&P 20-years ago. Markets are a voting mechanism.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

9 months

Semis index influence at a new high... up from 2% a decade ago, and easily the largest gain for an industry group.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

7 months

The duration nightmare lives on

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

7 months

SPY stat of the day: 98 consecutive trading days above the 50-day average... far cry from the record back in 1995-96.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

3 months

Small-cap update: current move relative to history is shy of average rally off major lows… runway?

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

Using 35-years of data, only 6% of observations show a rolling 6m price % change where E.M. is up while the U.S. is down. Makes us question the “why” for E.M. allocations.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

7 months

There’s been a whiff of strength for the Energy sector recently, and from our perch flows are supportive for a contrarian play... one for 2Q perhaps.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

Rare air for the QQQ, trading 24% above its 200-day average. Stretched? Sure, but also consistent with a move coming off market lows. Not much endorsement from ETF flows either.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

SPY flirting with a top quintile 6-month % change. Can be followed by another decent 6-months historically.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

2 months

The odds of this happening at the same hotel, time, and pool are exponential. Worlds collided, charts exploded with my man @sstrazza

Steven Strazza

@sstrazza

2 months

It is very rare to find another technician in the wild, but it does happen. Bumped into my good friend @Todd_Sohn who is also a Morning Show favorite @StockMktTV at the pool today @JWMarcoIsland ☀️🌴

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

3 months

One of the more painful declines out there... finally done?

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

29 days

China historical rallies – when they occur – are like an F1 vehicle going from 0 to 100 mph in seconds. By our work, the average MSCI China rally is roughly +78% over 176 trading days. Volatility is intense though with the index producing an average intra-year correction of -30%

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

A chart for Energy sector bulls, there’s been an exodus out of the ETF space over the last year. Flows not necessarily a signal, but a helpful sentiment data point to give some thought towards.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

QQQ up nicely YTD, but over the last 12-months it’s hardly a standout. There’s ample room for this move to get far more aggressive - bubble isn’t an appropriate term yet.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

Largest YTD correction was -8%… TBD if exceeded currently, although keep in mind the median is -11% historically.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

5 months

3 names now each >6% of S&P index weight… uncommon (or new normal?) time for market history.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

If the contribution of the largest index weights troubles you, remember - it’s common for the equal-weight construction to underperform at various points. Just don’t want to see it decline by itself.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

Bringing back an old favorite… top 5 SPY weights scored a new high at the end of August.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

2 years

Tech heavyweights index influence on the rise again.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

3 months

I thought the filing for an S&P Top 20 last week was interesting and somewhat a callback to when the Top 50 ETF arrived in 2005. Here’s a then and now of the top 20 names. No investment implications but rather a visual of index evolution and the ability to stay influential.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

4 months

Lengthy list of ETFs that have spent recent years in a challenging environment, now improving.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

5 largest S&P weights = 25% of index now, new high.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

10 months

Momentum tends to beget more momentum.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

22 days

Here’s a scatterplot of years 1 and 2 performance in bull markets for large vs. small-cap indices. Small-caps didn’t participate in year 1, trying in year 2… perhaps a catch-up year as we hit the October 2022 anniversary? We’ll see.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

8 months

Semiconductors are now over 10% of S&P 500 weight, up from 2% a decade ago and within shouting distance of Software as the most influential group within the benchmark. Tech ETF flows reflect this desire for exposure and score as the most aggressive area in our work too.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

4 months

@BullandBaird Feels right

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

8 months

Let’s roll

The Compound

@TheCompoundNews

8 months

TCAF Ep 133 is out now on YT! Enjoy📽️‼️ 🎙️ @Todd_Sohn @Downtown @michaelbatnick

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

Digging deeper into the ETF barrel to measure equity market participation. Narrowness remains unfounded no matter the measure.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

2 years

It’s been 12 months since the current hiking cycle began, leaving S&P 500 returns in the 1st decile historically. Can be strong, but never a linear path.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

Relatively speaking, small-caps performance over the last 12-months sits in the 1st decile historically. Overweighting small-caps is typically a bet reserved when exiting recessions, but the extremity here is interesting.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

7 months

A look at 1Q ETF category flows... Bitcoin, Tech and Growth, or bust.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

Rare air for small-caps, now over 500 trading days since last new all-time high. Only 7th time that's happened.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

Thanks @TheChartReport @Pdunuwila

The Chart Report

@TheChartReport

1 year

Today's Chart of the Day was shared by @Todd_Sohn Click here to read more! $QQQ

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

8 months

This was a real treat and I’m grateful for the opportunity

The Compound

@TheCompoundNews

8 months

TCAF ep 133🎙️ @Todd_Sohn joins @Downtown & @michaelbatnick to discuss the top ETFs to gauge market conditions, what the future holds for Nvidia, money market funds, how the VIX impacts returns, small caps, and more!🔥🆕 🎧

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

Here’s the distribution of S&P performance / frequency following yesterday’s new 52wk high. Helpful context for what it may mean.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

The real “pivot”

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

Large-cap Growth has been dominant, but based on flows, investor interest yet to translate back to the ARK suite of ETFs. Wonder if this will change.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

10 months

Bad joke time of the day... going nuclear.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

9 months

Major SPY momentum… rare occurrence where the 3-month % change and the current distance it is trading above the 200-day average are in the top quartile historically.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

With the conclusion of August, the 8-month % change for the S&P 500 ranks in the top quintile historically. Forward returns over the next 8-months are often decent.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

10 months

Many thanks @TheChartReport @Pdunuwila

The Chart Report

@TheChartReport

10 months

Today's Chart of the Day was shared by @Todd_Sohn Click here to read more! $RSP $SPY

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

Short duration vehicles too hard to pass up right now with income + low volatility. Shoutout to @kgreifeld @elonmusk for the added content here.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

6 months

One catalyst of the movement to Bond ETFs: the changing rate regime. Long duration Treasuries peak to trough decline of -47% from March 2020 to October 2023 measured over 900 trading days. The prior record was just over 300-days. There have been only 4 longer than 200-days.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

3 months

A little bout of volatility but 2024 still far below the average year. Most like 2014/2016 on the measure below.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

8 months

The last time the Nikkei 225 hit a new all-time high, Michael Keaton played Batman and Beetlejuice. In 2023-24, he is once again playing Batman and Beetlejuice.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

Thanks @TheChartReport @Pdunuwila appreciate it

The Chart Report

@TheChartReport

1 year

Today's Chart of the Day was shared by @Todd_Sohn Click here to read more! $SPX #Momentum

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

Great to join my friend @Pdunuwila @TheChartReport this week. We talk various markets and the ETF landscape. Thanks for the opportunity.

The Chart Report

@TheChartReport

1 year

Check out the latest episode of Trendlines over Headlines! This week, @Todd_Sohn of Strategas Research joins us to discuss the narrow leadership in the S&P 500, Energy Stocks, Banks, Gold, and more! Link to full episode here 👇

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

Looking forward to joining my friends @allstarcharts @sstrazza this morning, at 9 AM - join us for a fun time.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

7 months

Cocoa doing its best NVDA impression for the Ag space

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

8 months

An AAPL a day doesn't keep NVDA away.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

Last week marked 9-months since the October closing S&P low. Above average gain since, using similar non-recession corrections.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

7 months

Fighting Tech momentum hasn’t been a winning strategy, although there's quite an imbalance between sector flows compared to reflationary sectors.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

7 months

Equities have posted a smaller drawdown than Treasuries through 3-months of 2024. Speaking of bonds, it’s now been 44-months without a new all-time high for Bloomberg Agg – that’s approaching 3x the prior record of 16-months.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

8 months

Through mid-March, a -1.7% dip marks the largest drawdown for the S&P 500 in 2024. On average, the largest drawdown each year is roughly -15%, although sub -3% max drawdown years are not impossible... hotter sentiment might be a challenge to this, although not impossible.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

Some trick or treat charts

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

11 months

While 2023 may have been the year of “M&Ms” – money markets and the “Magnificent 7” – we think “perspective” may be a key theme for 2024… the average equity ETF is up roughly +15% since the Oct. 27th S&P low, but down over -7% since the end of 2021.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

Appreciate the look @TheChartReport @Pdunuwila

The Chart Report

@TheChartReport

1 year

Today's Chart of the Day was shared by @Todd_Sohn Click here to read more! $RSP $SPY $AAPL $MSFT $AMZN $NVDA $GOOGL

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

6 months

In a MAGS world, do small-caps matter anymore? 3rd longest streak without a new all-time high.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

3 months

Here’s what “all-in” Tech flows look like… perhaps today is the unwind of sorts.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

9 months

Here's the historical comps...

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

3 months

Let’s go!

The Compound

@TheCompoundNews

3 months

Small Caps Rip | TCAF 150🎙️ @Todd_Sohn of @strategasasset joins @Downtown & @michaelbatnick to discuss small cap stocks, the odds of tech stocks faltering, semiconductors, cash off the sidelines, thematic ETFs, Trump economics, and more!🔥 ⏯️

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

7 months

Another comp of today and 1995 - fed funds rate at a similar level with SPY momentum strong.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

11 months

I’m an Indiana Jones fan… and the continued allocations to cash reminds me of the search for the Holy Grail in Last Crusade. 5% yields great, unless you missed out on +20% equity returns.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

8 months

Tech vs. everyone else... flows remain heavily skewed towards Tech with +$17.5 Bn inflows over the last year, while all other sector focused ETFs have net outflows of -$17.5 Bn. ETFs are a great reflection of market emotions and flows echo the desire for Tech-related exposures.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

2 months

A rolling 6-month % change between the long duration Treasury index and S&P 500 is a helpful tell on how serious underlying economic issues are. Surges from this ratio into the top decile are typically accompanied by 1) equity corrections and often 2) recessions. No evidence yet.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

2 months

@EricBalchunas @psarofagis

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

6 months

ETFs are a great tool for assessing investor sentiment… this week’s price action from the old “meme” names provoked us to perform a quick check-up on the sentiment state of equities, particularly compared to January 2021. Meme Craze 2.0 isn’t near the scale of the original 1.0.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

2 years

If looking to play China but without the volatility and geopolitical risks involved… consider France - heavyweight luxury names in the basket have plenty of exposure to the region.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

Equity flows have perked up (a scent of “FOMO”?). But hard pressed to call sentiment aggressive today.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

3 months

I’m a huge ETF cheerleader, but money markets are one of the most interesting psychological vehicles for markets… ever?

The Compound

@TheCompoundNews

3 months

Money Market Flows Prediction ⏯️ 🎙️ @Todd_Sohn @Downtown @michaelbatnick

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

2 months

Random, yet true… the MSCI Japan index is more likely to see an intra-year drawdown greater than 25% vs. any other 5% interval. Low volatility isn’t a Japan equity characteristic.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

Japan equities are arguably the strongest market right now, yet there’s a real lack of interest via ETFs… hardly any inflows recently.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

10 months

Stats you may or may not be aware of: -The Nasdaq 100 2023 performance of +54% sits in the top decile of rolling 12- month returns -The equal-weight relative cap-weight S&P 500 rolling 12-month performance is in the bottom decile historically.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

2 months

Here’s Consumer Staples flirting with 6% of the S&P today. So the combined weight of the “Consumer” in the index is 15.6%, lowest in 35 years of data. Index evolution on display.

Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

3 months

Strange to see such an important driver of the US at less than 10% of S&P 500 weight, but here we are with Discretionary. Usually reserved for more challenging environments.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

Thanks @TheChartReport @Pdunuwila appreciate it

The Chart Report

@TheChartReport

1 year

Today's Chart of the Day was shared by @Todd_Sohn Click here to read more! $RUT $IWM

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

2 years

Thanks @TheChartReport @Pdunuwila always appreciated.

The Chart Report

@TheChartReport

2 years

Today's Chart of the Day was shared by @Todd_Sohn Click here to read more! $EWQ 🇫🇷

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

6 months

Big Weights = Big Index Influence NVDA alone has contributed over 40% of YTD gains, the highest of any single stock during a year when the S&P 500 posted positive performance. Said in sports terms, the best players tend to score the most points (like Caitlin Clark and Iowa).

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

11-months since the October index low… next 11-months can be trickier, at least historically, but that’s the price of investing.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

6 months

Weight influence notable for indices such as the S&P 500 but concentration risk extends to large-cap Growth ETFs where the top 10 weights’ influence looks more like niche sector funds than a cornerstone of an investor portfolio.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

9 months

While not strictly “Tech”, with META’s enormous advance and TSLA’s decline out of the top 10 weights, we figure it’s only a matter of time until the “Magnificent 7” turns into the “Sensational Six” (that’s a Disney reference). Those 6 stocks now account for 28% of SPY weight.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

8 months

Looking forward to joining @BobPisani @ETFEdgeCNBC today at 1:10pm along with @Matt_Hougan @BitwiseInvest .

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

8 months

15-years since the March 2009 generational low... fun then & now comparison of where ETFs have come from.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

2 years

Couple of caveats but it is rare for a sector to double its index weight in a such a short period.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

“Speed bumps” tend to occur after QQQ hits such an extreme deviation from trend. Good time to keep the long-term picture in mind.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

8 months

Perhaps not a stretch to say “year 3” of post-rate liftoff might be more challenging than prior years. The S&P 500 sits in the top decile of 12-month % change vs. 1st decile 1yr ago. But keep perspective... a 2yr % change shows stocks are only slightly above average performance.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

5 months

If it’s not GLP-1 related – and the industry now has 2 brand new GLP-1 focused ETFs (OZEM, THNR) – it’s been a challenging environment for Healthcare ETFs.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

Money market funds are one example... best total return since 2007 with a quarter to go.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

6 months

April flows highlights: cash-like Treasuries scored atop our list – consistent with equity selling pressure – but there remains persistent demand for the Growth factor and Tech sector. The tactical interest for cash is also consistent with renewed corporate bond outflows.

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Todd Sohn

@Todd_Sohn

1 year

-8% max drawdown for SPY during the first half. 33% of the time this can mark the steepest of the year (vs. an avg of -14%)… important number to keep in mind for 2H ‘23.

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