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Tipswatch

@TipsWatch

2 years

@NickTimiraos "Didn't understand" is not going to cut it. He is a Fed regional president. He needs to resign.

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@TipsWatch

2 months

See this chart? It's exactly what the Federal Reserve needed to see to begin a course of interest-rate cuts. Annual U.S. inflation has fallen to 2.9%, the lowest rate since March 2021.

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@TipsWatch

3 years

Reminder: It was the Fed that got us into this risky situation, desperately attempting to stave off a recession. So now it is just amplifying the risk of an error.

Bloomberg

@business

3 years

The Fed faces a growing risk of making a policy mistake, tipping the economy into a recession, as it confronts decades-high inflation

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@TipsWatch

1 year

TreasuryDirect jumps the gun and announces I Bond's new fixed rate will be 0.9% creating a composite rate of 4.3%. Never seen an early announcement like this before, but it hasn't bee pulled down.

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@TipsWatch

2 years

Here it is: My annual buying guide for U.S. Series I Savings Bonds. Hint: This year, it's complicated.

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@TipsWatch

9 months

TreasuryDirect 1099s: How to find these important tax forms, and then decipher them.

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@TipsWatch

2 years

@TruthGundlach This entire yield collapse is shocking, because it looks like the market wants to "condense" the bear market into a few-weeks event, just like in 2020. I can't see that happening. Rates need to rise; inflation needs to fall.

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@TipsWatch

9 months

If you have a TreasuryDirect account, you can find your 1099 tax forms on the "ManageDirect" page, either today or very soon. These forms are laughably complex and you don't even get a .pdf version to print.

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@TipsWatch

2 years

The I Bond's new variable rate, to be reset May for all I Bonds, will be 3.38%, down from the current 6.48%. When this rate takes effect depends on the month your purchased the I Bond.

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@TipsWatch

9 months

Many investors may shun U.S. Series I Savings Bonds this year, but long-term investors interested in safety and inflation protection should buy up to the limit. Here's my buying guide for 2024:

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@TipsWatch

2 years

@business Of course, his actual salary is more like $225,000. But in a world where administrators at non-profit hospitals make $10 million a year, Powell is underpaid.

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@TipsWatch

2 years

It looks like the new i Bond fixed rate is 0.4%, composite rate of 6.89%. Very good news.

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@TipsWatch

2 years

One of the most important CPI reports of the year is coming Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. This one will set the I Bond's new six-month variable rate, which looks likely to be about 3.4% to 3.6%, down from the current 6.48%. Track the numbers here:

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@TipsWatch

7 months

Interested in swapping out your old 0.0% fixed-rate I Bonds for the 1.3% versions available today? Here’s a guide.

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@TipsWatch

2 months

The U.S. Treasury in January will stop issuing paper I Bonds in lieu of a federal tax refund. Is that a good idea? Sure. But it should also raise the $10,000 a year purchase limit for the electronic version.

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@TipsWatch

5 months

OK. @TMobile long promised never to raise your rate, and really stressed that on its highly promoted 55+ plans. This is a 12.5% increase and T-mobile’s promises are now KAPUT.

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@TipsWatch

2 years

Confirmed: new I Bond fixed rate is 0.4%, composite rate is 6.89%. Series EE fixed rates soars from 0.1% to 2.1%. Very welcome.

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@TipsWatch

3 years

Inflation rose 1.2% in March, higher than consensus. What this means: The variable rate of the U.S. Series I Savings Bond will rise to an annualized 9.62%. A totally safe investment, paying 9.62%. Here's why you should buy before May 1 ...

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@TipsWatch

2 years

Short-term Treasurys: Is may be time to go out a little longer. Even though yields could continue to rise, why not start locking in attractive 5- to 10-year yields?

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@TipsWatch

9 months

FYI, Sunday morning I will post my annual guide to finding and deciphering 1099 tax forms on TreasuryDirect. Even if you did it last year, and the year before, and the year before ... it can be confusing.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities

TIPS: Perfect investment for imperfect times? News, ideas, alerts

tipswatch.com

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@TipsWatch

9 months

Early-year investors in U.S. Series I Bonds got a fantastic investment, but now there is a looming -- and possibly gigantic -- tax bill coming. What's the strategy?

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@TipsWatch

1 year

Went for a walk and whammo, TreasuryDirect announces the new I Bond fixed rate (1.3%) and six-month composite rate (5.27%). Right on target, I think.

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@TipsWatch

6 months

Treasury holds I Bond fixed rate at 1.3%; composite rate falls to 4.28%. And that means, no surprises!

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@TipsWatch

6 months

For I Bond investors, Here is the BREAKING NEWS: Non-seasonal inflation in March came in at 0.65%, resulting in a six-month inflation rate of 1.48%, which will result in a new I Bond variable rate of 2.96% at the May 1 reset.

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@TipsWatch

1 year

Looking to move out of I Bonds now that inflation has cooled? The exit ramp is now open, but proceed with caution.

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@TipsWatch

1 year

Last night, my website crossed the million-page-view threshold for 2023 so far. In 2022 for the full year it hit 992,297 (so close!). In 2021 it was 322,131. Inflation has become a very hot topic.

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@TipsWatch

3 years

Based on my quick calculation the I Bond's new variable rate will rise to an annualized 9.62%, for all I Bonds, for six months.

Inflation and I Bonds

Tipswatch.com, updated Oct. 10, 2024 Follow Tipswatch on X (Twitter) for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends. This chart shows monthly and six-month non-seasonally adjusted inf…

tipswatch.com

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@TipsWatch

2 years

Did you invest in I Bonds as a short-term savings strategy? That was a savvy move. The next savvy move will be to be patient in your exit strategy. Here's a guide.

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@TipsWatch

1 year

I Bonds with a fixed rate of 1.3% remain attractive, but when should you buy them and why? Some random thoughts ...

Random thoughts on I Bonds in 2023, 2024

I Bonds remain attractive, but when and why? By David Enna, Tipswatch.com The I Bond’s new fixed rate of 1.3% — the highest in 16+ years — and the resulting composite rate of 5.27…

tipswatch.com

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@TipsWatch

1 year

The bond trading platform at @Vanguard_Group has been broken all day on the Firefox browser. But it still worked on Chrome. Now, it does not work on Chrome either. This is not acceptable, #Vanguard . I can guarantee you bond trading works at @Fidelity .

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@TipsWatch

1 year

The fixed rate of the U.S. Series I Savings Bond will increase at the November 1 reset. But by how much? Here's my analysis:

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@TipsWatch

2 years

Today's T-bill auction results: 13-week, investment rate of 4.677%, up from 4.522% last week. 26-week, investment rate of 4.892%, up from 4.812% last week. Market seems to be pricing in *one* more Fed hike?

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@TipsWatch

2 years

Just found numbers on I Bond issuance at Treasury Direct for 2022 through September: $22.3 billion. For the same time of 2021: $934 million. Same time of 2020: $252 million. That is an increase of 100x from 2020 to 2022.

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@TipsWatch

2 years

I bought a secondary market (brokered) CD today from City National Bank of Los Angeles, 5 years at 4.612%. No big deal, except ... if you go to the bank's website you will see they are offering customers 0.70% for a similar CD. I wish I could understand this.

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@TipsWatch

9 months

Good job by Yahoo Finance's @KerryHannon recapping the I Bond sell vs. hold dilemma:

I bonds were paying nearly 10% in 2022. It's time to sell.

I bonds were paying a high-flying 9.62% in May 2022. Those yields have since returned to Earth.

finance.yahoo.com

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@TipsWatch

25 days

Investing for safety: The era of 5% yields is ending. Is there a "next" strategy?

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@TipsWatch

2 years

Today's T-bill auction result: 17-week, investment rate of 5.049%, up from 4.977% a week ago. Another T-bill breaks through the 5% barrier!

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@TipsWatch

6 months

From the article: "Individual TIPS, when held to maturity, are as close as one can get to the ideal "risk-free asset" of finance theory. ... The caveats of individual bonds and held to maturity are necessary for those assets to be risk-free."

The Superiority of TIPS Ladders

If one wants a guaranteed store of real purchasing power to pay off a future liability or to provide a multi-year income stream such as for retirement, then a ladder of TIPS provides a much stronger...

www.advisorperspectives.com

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@TipsWatch

1 year

Based on where real yields closed Wednesday, I think we should expect the Treasury to raise the I Bond's fixed rate to 0.6% on Monday. (Of course, anything is possible. It will be interesting.)

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@TipsWatch

10 months

There was a "financial expert" on X yesterday ridiculing people who worked on TIPS ladders over recent months. With stock market gains of the last two days, "how do you feel now?" Ha Ha. But ... the $TIP ETF is up 2.4% over the last two days. S&P 500, up 1.6%. Ha Ha.

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@TipsWatch

2 years

Want to exit your I Bond investment? You’d better have a plan. You don’t want to miss out on three months of 6.48% interest (or more).

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@TipsWatch

2 months

I've been vacationing for 3+ weeks in the European Alps, but now I am back! And here are today's T-bill auction results: 13-week, investment rate of 5.212%, down from 5.285% last week. 26-week, investment rate of 4.881%, down from 5.126% last week.

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@TipsWatch

10 months

Investors are cashing out of their 0.0% fixed-rate I Bonds; $5 billion worth in the last six months.

Investors Spurn I Bonds With Better Places to Park Their Cash

The once popular securities lost their appeal this year as the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates to control inflation.

www.bloomberg.com

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@TipsWatch

2 years

I Bonds: Let’s handicap the May fixed-rate reset. (But keep in mind that everything you are about to read is based on facts + guesswork)

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@TipsWatch

11 months

This is an utterly ridiculous opinion piece. Sorry, Bloomberg. I had a decade of earning 0.05% on my savings. Now we’re finally getting a fair return.

Bloomberg

@business

11 months

Yes, savers benefit when banks pass on higher interest rates. But that can come at the expense of the broader economy, @PaulJDavies writes (via @opinion )

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@TipsWatch

2 years

I Bond dilemma: Buy in April, buy in May, or don’t buy at all? The I Bond’s fixed rate could rise to 0.6% or higher on May 1. Should you wait? Or look at alternatives?

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@TipsWatch

2 months

This is the reason it is getting harder and harder to cash paper U.S. Savings Bonds at a local bank. Many banks won't do it.

A dozen people cashed counterfeit savings bonds on the MS Coast. Authorities caught on

The suspects targeted credit unions and banks in seven South Mississippi cities. Here’s more.

www.sunherald.com

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@TipsWatch

2 years

Why are Savings Bonds suddenly sexy? Here's a brightly written, fun story from @NPR 's Stacey Vanek Smith ( @svaneksmith ). I was glad to help out ...

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@TipsWatch

8 months

All-items CPI rose 0.3% in January and was up 3.1% year over year (above estimates). Core was 0.4% for the month and 3.9% year over year, also above estimates. Not a good inflation report.

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@TipsWatch

1 year

Today's "after-debt-agreement" T-bill auctions: 13-week, investment rate of 5.462%, up from 5.409% last week. 26-week, investment rate of 5.526%, up from 5.398% last week. ... I think these results may be more influenced by fears of future Fed hikes.

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@TipsWatch

10 months

Despite the volatility -- or maybe because of it -- 2023 was a very good year for fighting inflation and building a solid platform for retirement ...

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@TipsWatch

6 months

This is the U.S. Treasury real yield curve at the close Thursday. For anyone building a long-term TIPS ladder, these yields are attractive, across the board.

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@TipsWatch

2 years

Here’s a surprise: CD rates are suddenly very attractive. But don’t go to your local mega bank. Look for better deals.

Here’s a surprise: CD rates are suddenly very attractive

But don’t go to your local mega bank. Look for better deals. By David Enna, Tipswatch.com For years, CD rates offered by banks and credit unions — even the aggressive online versions &#…

tipswatch.com

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@TipsWatch

1 year

Thursday’s 5-year TIPS auction offers a solid investment opportunity. It's a new TIPS, so the cost should be close to par. The real yield could be 2.35%+, the highest in 15 years.

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@TipsWatch

1 year

Real yields are on the rise: Do you have a strategy? Right now, 27 TIPS with maturities up to April 2029 have real yields higher than 2.0%.

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@TipsWatch

1 month

Remembering Bob Brinker, who died Aug. 18 at the age of 82. Over the years, his sensible advice over the radio was a life-changer for many listeners.

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@TipsWatch

2 years

I wrote this 5 days ago. 5 DAYS! I will readily admit that every "prediction" I made is now shot. Real yields have fallen 40+ basis points in 5 days. There is no certainty, but inflation protection still looks very important.

Tipswatch

@TipsWatch

2 years

I Bonds: Let’s handicap the May fixed-rate reset. (But keep in mind that everything you are about to read is based on facts + guesswork)

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@TipsWatch

2 years

Does the I Bond's new variable rate of 3.38% make I Bonds an unattractive investment? For short-term investors seeking yield, yes. For long-term investors seeking inflation protection, no.

March inflation report sets I Bond’s new variable rate at 3.38%

Annual U.S. inflation fell to 5.0% in March, but core inflation rose to 5.6%. By David Enna, Tipswatch.com Update, April 28, 2023: Treasury raises I Bond’s fixed rate to 0.9%; new composite r…

tipswatch.com

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@TipsWatch

2 years

Annoyed by the way TreasuryDirect reports your I Bond interest? There is another, very simple way to track I Bond values.

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@TipsWatch

2 years

FYI: Non-seasonal inflation increased 0.6% in February, so I Bond variable rate rate reset should be around 2.8%, but one month remains. So it could end up above 3.5%.

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@TipsWatch

1 year

When the 10-year nominal hits 5%, do you buy buy buy? Or go with a TIPS with a real yield of around 2.6%?

Ken Tumin

@KenTumin

1 year

Ten-Year Treasury Yield Closes Above 4.8% | @WSJ "Treasury yields have been surging for weeks but got an extra boost Tuesday after new data showed that job openings had unexpectedly jumped in August."

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@TipsWatch

2 years

My favorite financial advisor, @Dull_Investing , weighs in on TIPS vs I Bonds…

Today’s Best Inflation Buster: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)

Guaranteed bonds whose price rises with inflation

www.aarp.org

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@TipsWatch

1 year

Vanguard's VUSXX pays a bit more (5.19%) but @Fidelity 's Cash Management Account is a lot more convenient and has a $0.00 minimum to invest. Either way, this is a reminder to put your spare cash to work.

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@TipsWatch

2 years

Today's T-bill auction results: 13-week, investment rate of 4.802%, up from last week's 4.708%. 26-week, 5.030%, up from last week's 4.940%. I might be wrong, but I think this is the first time the 26-week has topped 5% in this rising-rate cycle.

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@TipsWatch

8 months

At this point, it looks like the I Bond’s fixed rate could hold at 1.3% at May 1 reset.

Let’s check in on the I Bond’s next fixed rate

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com Earlier this year, I think most I Bond investors were assuming that the I Bond’s next fixed rate would end up being lower than the current 1.30%, the highest fixe…

tipswatch.com

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@TipsWatch

1 year

If you are curious about how to calculate real yield to maturity for a TIPS, here is the formula in Excel, using the YIELD function. (Maybe everyone knows this, but it was a new thing for me) ...

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@TipsWatch

1 year

TreasuryDirect is signaling it will soon announce the I Bond's new fixed rate resulting composite rate, saying, "Buying an I bond? The interest rate we offer changes in TreasuryDirect at midnight ET to start Tuesday, October 31."

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@TipsWatch

2 years

Today Wells Fargo posted October interest for my checking/savings account = 3 cents. In October 2021, I earned 1 cent, so this amounts to a 200% increase. So generous.

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@TipsWatch

6 months

What will your older I Bonds be earning in coming months? You might be disappointed. So, what is the best strategy for this investment?

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@TipsWatch

2 years

Today's T-bill auction results: 13-week, investment rate of 5.128%, up from last week's 4.919%. 26-week, investment rate of 4.996%, up from last week's 4.996%. ... 13-week now seems to be the sweet spot.

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@TipsWatch

1 year

Something NEVER reflected in U.S. inflation reports: My property tax bill is increasing 24% this year after a revaluation. And my property increased in value just a bit more than average in my city. This will hit many people very hard.

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@TipsWatch

1 year

U.S. inflation fell to an annual rate of 3.0% in June. What does this mean for TIPS, I Bonds and the Social Security COLA?

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@TipsWatch

2 years

Today's T-bill auction result: 17-week, investment rate of 5.216%, up from 5.049% last week.

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@TipsWatch

2 years

Thoughts on this week’s 5-year TIPS auction: It’s complicated because of attractive nominal yields on competing, very safe bank CDs. Why not invest in both?

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@TipsWatch

1 year

Now is an ideal time to build a ladder of inflation-protected TIPS. Why? It’s rare to see an alignment of attractive yields across all maturities.

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@TipsWatch

2 years

5-year real yield (by Treasury estimates) has climbed to 1.92% ahead of today's new TIPS offering. That's the highest yield since the depths of the financial crisis in late 2008.

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@TipsWatch

11 months

I Bonds are not longer "the rage," but they remain attractive as a long-term, very safe investment. From @KerryHannon at Yahoo Finance.

I bonds just got more attractive in two key ways

The annualized yield for new I bond purchases made through April is 5.27%.

finance.yahoo.com

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@TipsWatch

1 year

Today's T-bill auction results: 13-week, investment rate of 5.409%, up from 5.211% a week ago. 26-week, investment rate of 5.398%, up from 5.194% last week.

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@TipsWatch

2 years

Treasury's announcement is in: I Bond's fixed rate at 0.0%, variable rate at 9.62%, composite rate is 9.62%. Everything as expected. EE Bonds will yield a fixed rate of 0.1% but continue doubling after 20 years, an effective rate of about 3.5%.

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@TipsWatch

6 months

The March inflation report will be released Wednesday at 8:30 am ET. Inflation at 0.3% for all-items and core remains too high. Non-seasonal should be at least 0.5%, which would result in a new I Bond variable rate of 2.6% at May reset. Could be higher.

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@TipsWatch

1 year

AUCTION RESULT: 5-year real yield of 1.832% is the highest for any TIPS auction of this term since 2008.

FinancialJuice

@financialjuice

1 year

US 5-YEAR TIPS AUCTION BID-TO-COVER RATIO 2.56 HIGH YIELD 1.832% SELLS $19 BLN AWARDS 22.41% OF BIDS AT HIGH PRIMARY DEALERS TAKE 3.87% DIRECT 11.03% INDIRECT 85.1%

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@TipsWatch

2 months

Investors recently have had the opportunity to invest in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities with real yields higher than 2.0%. That's been rare over the last 14 years. Have we now seen the end of those 2.0+ real yields?

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@TipsWatch

2 months

Where is the I Bond’s composite rate heading in November? Probably lower, but the fixed rate could stay attractive at 1.0% or higher.

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Tipswatch

@TipsWatch

2 years

Today's 52-week T-bill auction result: Investment rate of 3.603%, up from 3.325% last week. Is you bank paying 3.6% for a 1-year CD? Probably not. In addition, no state income taxes on a T-bill.

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@TipsWatch

2 years

A lot of financial people are talking about "transitory disinflation." Has that happened before? Yes, in 1976 the inflation picture started to look better. And then ...

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@TipsWatch

9 months

We've been doing some exploratory looks at senior living options -- for years down the road. (Getting your name on a waiting list is the strategy.) The buy-in and monthly costs are eye-opening, and reinforce the need to safe smartly for retirement.

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@TipsWatch

1 year

How things change: A reader pointed out to me that the 30-year TIPS issued in Feb 2022 (coupon rate of 0.125%) is now selling at a price of 60.64. It has lost nearly 40% of its value in 17 months.

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@TipsWatch

2 years

I'm late again (sorry), but here are today's T-bill auction results: 13-week, investment rate of 4.097%, up from 3.911% last week; 26-week, investment rate of 4.552%, up from 4.398% last week. Very attractive rates, totally safe.

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@TipsWatch

2 years

Today's T-bill auction results: 13-week, investment rate of 4.903%, up slightly from 4.888% last week. 26-week, investment rate of 5.183%, up from 5.151% last week.

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@TipsWatch

2 years

I Bonds vs. TIPS: Despite the I Bond’s appeal, investors shouldn’t ignore the sizable yield advantage for TIPS.

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@TipsWatch

1 year

Non-seasonally adjusted inflation rose 0.25%, meaning the six-month I Bond rate-setting period ended at 1.97%. The I Bond's new variable rate will be 3.94%, up from 3.38% currently.

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@TipsWatch

2 years

This article, by Forbes contributor William Baldwin, makes some good points, especially in pointing out how attractive TIPS are right now. But on I Bonds? A bit off-base. TIPS and I Bonds are a great combination.

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@TipsWatch

2 years

Today's T-bill auction results: 13-week, investment rate of 4.708%, DOWN from last week's 4.714%. 26-week, investment rate of 4.940%, up from last week's 4.860%. Have to admit the 13-week result is a bit baffling.

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@TipsWatch

1 year

Good overview of TIPS. One thing: the article says you are guaranteed to get back your "original investment" at maturity. The guarantee is for "par value" and your original investment might have cost more. Only par value is guaranteed.

How to invest in TIPS (Treasury inflation-protected securities)

When inflation is surging, it’s easy to see the benefit of TIPS. But TIPS also have drawbacks relative to other fixed-income securities.

www.usatoday.com

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@TipsWatch

1 year

Although I helped out on this story, I still think buying in April (which I am doing) versus buying in May is a bit of a toss-up, because of the uncertainty of the I Bond's fixed rate. If it goes substantially higher, buyers in May will celebrate.

I bonds expected to lose their luster in May as yield falls

Analysts expect the annualized yield for an I bond to sink o 3.79% for the period from May to October from the current 6.89%.

finance.yahoo.com

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@TipsWatch

2 years

Today's T-bill auction results: 13-week, investment rate of 4.714%, up from 4.693% last week. 26-week, investment rate of 4.860%, DOWN from last week's 4.865%. Looks like 26-week is trying to call a top.

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@TipsWatch

2 years

After three months of volatility, where do we stand? TIPS remain attractive. I Bonds? Still OK. And now bank CDs are worth a serious look.

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Tipswatch

@TipsWatch

1 year

On the positive side, I get pitches like this because my site is doing well. Why is it doing well? Because it contains original, authoritative content.

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Tipswatch

@TipsWatch

2 years

The U.S. Treasury should raise the I Bond’s fixed rate above 0.0%. But will it? The odds are better now. The data clearly support a higher fixed rate.

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Tipswatch

@TipsWatch

6 months

This seems to indicate that the Treasury *might* accept and complete April I Bond orders on Tuesday, April 30. I'd say that is risky, because the money transer and order may not complete until May 1. So get this done on Monday, at the latest.

IwasRetired

@IwasRetired

6 months

TD is up, and note says the rate changes at midnight on Tuesday, April 30. Make your transaction this weekend or by close of business Monday to get your I-Bond bought in time! See 3 reasons to do it NOW:

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