The stats have highlighted importance of
@WindassJnr
all season long. He's performing at a near elite level in nearly every category. Where to begin? How about the fact that 50% of his Key Passes set up Scoring Chances (shots that have high rate of being goals)
Updated Projected League Table
Back in December, the model predicted an eventual 7 point lead at the top of the table for Celtic over Rangers
At the time, Rangers had a six point lead in the table
Fast forward six months, & the model predicts a 7 point gap between 1st & 2nd
At some point Steve Clarke will realize his best option at center back may actually be Ryan Porteous. Or he may just keep going with Scott McKenna & a midfielder 🤔
Rangers finish with six goals from 33 shots, 18 of which were on target.
Generated 85% of the shots & 82% of the shots on target. Can't wait to see the xG from this one.
Sounds strange to say, but
@James_Tavernier
has been one of the most improved players in the league this season. I've always been a huge fan of his, but I'd argue he's playing his best football so far this season.
Excited to share that I’ll be taking some time away from Scottish football to do consulting for an
@EFL
club. Thanks to anyone who has read my work & a special appreciation to the
@ModernFitba
team who took a throw-away idea in a WhatsApp group & have made it something special.
Scoring Chance Key Passes per 90 leaders. These players are consistently setting teammates up the high percentage shots that win matches. Holy shit....look at difference between Hagi & EVERYONE ELSE!
It's been a couple of months since I've done radars for midfielders & wingers. Let's start with
@Jamiemurphy89
- his impact for
@RangersFC
has been immense & has brought a real balance to the team's attack.
I've been sitting on these projections for a few weeks now & have hesitated to make them public given how bad it looks for Rangers.
Long time followers will know these projections were a regular feature & that they have a pretty good track record projecting long term results.
Rangers defended so well today. Outside of those couple of chances early on...the backline was able to keep everything to the periphery.
Barisic led the way with 6 interceptions & had 4 clearances (tied with Goldson with the most) AND won 5 aerial duels (again most on the team)
Updated Projected League Table
<stating the obvious>
@RangersFC
play is trending in the wrong direction at the absolute wrong time of the season
<sigh>
Updated Projected League Table...
The model is liking
@RangersFC
chances more & more each day.
A big part of that is Rangers Expected Goals Against per 90 is 0.55
The next best are Celtic & Kilmarnock at 0.95 & 0.99
Your regular reminder that your da is wrong about
@WindassJnr
- beyond his ability to get quality shots, what is often overlooked is his ability to create Scoring Chances for others
Updated Projected League Table sees
@RangersFC
winning league by wide margin. Still so many matches left but Rangers clearly trending in right direction. Also, interesting to see the 5,6,7 teams in actual table all projected to be bottom six
Key Passes per 90 leaders for
@spfl
(minimum 700 minutes played). Send this to your friends who are critics of
@James_Tavernier
& you can see why Barisic is starting for Croatia. Also think
@10DavidTurnbull
has chance to be a star for a long time. Data via
@ORTECsports
Here you go...the debut of the Projected League Table for the 23-24 season.
*Five teams have fewer Expected Goals Allowed than Celtic...if they fix that - expect them to overtake Rangers in projections
*St Johnstone is bad but won't be 19 points bad.
.
@RangersFC
are linked to Umar Sadiq. He averaged 0.58 goals per 90 in the Eredivisie last season. That's a Goals Above Average of +0.203, which is similar to GAA rates of Louis Moult last season & Liam Boyce in 2016-17. Not bad for a 21-year old...
'Grain of salt' debut of this season's Projected League Table
*2016-17 Celtic earned 106 points - that will be hard to top but they may have a chance
*Since 2008-09, Dundee's 2018-19 had the worst point total with 31. So DunUtd WILL earn more than 10!
*Hibs???
#1
Ryan Jack,
@RangersFC
Every time I publish some new analytics report...there's Ryan Jack leading the list. Last summer I discovered he was a possession driving beast & now this rating suggests he's the best central midfielder in Scotland. 🐏
The "now, it's just a formality" version of the Updated Projected League Table.
This is the 33rd time this season I've posted these. Celtic has been at the top of the table in 58% of those.
It really has been the tightest title race in a long time (even though it's over now)
Updated Projected League Table suggests the league title race will be much closer than most believe at this point.
Ultimately, Rangers ability to limit high volumes of quality chances is what narrows the margins at the top.
Expected Goals Against:
Celtic: 10.30
Rangers: 5.45
Here is my predicted league table for the 2019-20 Scottish Premiership season.
Loosely based on my projected league table model with some estimated regression & improvements applied.
Really feel this will be the season that
@RangersFC
get that 55th league title!
Updated Projected League Table
Kilmarnock generated 65% of the Expected Goals yesterday, which dragged Rangers xG Differential down for the first time in a long time.
Expected Goals per 90 leaders (at least 400 minutes played). Four of the top seven play for
@RangersFC
😳. Also, I think Nisbet’s handled the big move up to Premiership.
Expected Goals from today's win:
@RangersFC
1.92
@RCFCStaggies
0.43 (doesn't include penalty). Impressive away performance by a team that seems to be gelling under
@GraemeMurty
#1
James Tavernier,
@RangersFC
The man is a LEGEND. Notice the gap between him & the rest of the pack. His Win Impact Rating is the 7th best in the league overall. The next best full back, Borna Barišić, has the 78th best rating overall. That's how good Tav has been.
"That miss" was Alfredo Morelos' 18th shot from within 6 yard box (13 headed, 5 kicked). He has converted on only 22% of them (4 goals).
Next most is Steven MacLean (8), Dembele (7) & Scott Sinclair (7) with each.
Conversion Rates: SM: 50%, MD: 71%, SS: 43%
Glad to see Borna Barišić have such an impact. Stats highlighted how impactful he was in the build-up play last season, being among the league leaders in per 90 rates for Key Passes, Secondary Shot Assists, Establishing Passes (the 3rd shot assist), & Scoring Chance Key Passes.
Final stat is a favorite...Scoring Chance Key Passes per 90. These are the players who have been the best at setting teammates up with high percentage shots.
There's Ianis Hagi............................and everyone else.
Also, don't tell Neil Lennon about Greg Taylor 🤫
It's the "way too early" debut of the Projected League Table.
A few of these point projections will be pretty spot on, while more than a few will see real variance over the next couple of months.
However, it can be a good measure of teams really stand based on performance.
It's taken awhile for me to process the last 24 surreal, yet glorious hours. The first person I can think of is my grandad, who is buried with a Rangers scarf & photos of his great-grandkids. That's when the emotion kicks in.
Everyone in Rangers family! Let's have fun tonight!
Updated Projected League Table...the late night edition. Will repost in the morning (UK)
*Celtic's projected lead at the top is getting bigger
*Kilmarnock projected for third 🧐
*Margins for the bottom three beginning to tighten
Updated Projected League Table - There's going to be fluidity early on & it's too early to feel THAT good about these results but...
*It's interesting to see
@HibernianFC
&
@MotherwellFC
doing so well in the projections
*Also, Dundee United will finish with more than 12 pts
Can’t say enough about how
@JordanC1107
is transforming coverage of
@RangersFC
-it’s just so refreshing to see my team finally covered the way it should be. Subscribe already to
@TheAthleticUK
My first exclusive interview for
@TheAthleticUK
with Rangers’ Ryan Jack.
We discussed his use of sports psychology, the influence of Davis, composure in Europe, Morelos being pranked, shouting at Archie Knox, right-back for Scotland & his new contract...
Dusting off the MF Passing Rating leaderboard thanks to data from
@ORTECsports
- this measures which passers are setting teammates up with a better chance of scoring than that league average Conversion Rate? Last season, the leader was Elliot Frear, this season it's...
The request line is open for WIR breakdowns. Here’s
@James_Tavernier
to start. He’s played at beyond an elite level for full backs. For context of how good his 0.707 rating is...Borna Barisic has the 2nd best rating for full backs at.....0.467
Seen a lot of talk about winning percentages & Rangers managers today. Here is a glimpse at real win% that includes draws as 1/3 of a win. Only Premiership & Championship games includes
@daddybroon
@CemetryGates89
@_IbroxLoyal
Here are the overall leaders. If teammates converted at the league average rate of all shots from
@Dcandeias11
Key Passes that would translate to 4.40 goals. Compare that to his Expected Assists total of 7.10 & you get a sense of the high volume of quality chances he sets up.
Updated Projected League Table
Since their 2-0 win over Celtic in early Dec,
@JamTarts
has earned 87% of the available points & seen their projected point total go up from 51 to 58 in that same time period. Their xGD has stayed basically the same but banking points really helps!
Updated Projected League Table.
The margins getting pretty tight between
@AberdeenFC
&
@HibernianFC
Meanwhile, this is the closest
@dundeeunitedfc
has been to getting out of that automatic relegation spot.
Updated Projected League Table sees a change at the top for the third straight week after Celtic's dominant win over Ross County. Neither team can afford any dropped points moving forward.
Here's your post Christmas, Updated Projected League Table.
Celtic has regained the top spot after a pair of dominant results over Dundee & Livingston.
Obviously, tomorrow's Old Firm match could be a real turning point in the title chase.
.
@James_Tavernier
&
@Dcandeias11
have combined for a total 30 assists & Secondary Assists this season. That's 48% of non-penalty goals being created via the passing of
@RangersFC
duo out on the right flank.
Updated Projected League Table suggests the battle for the last spot in top six will be extremely close - with three clubs projected on 48 points for that last spot.
@LiviFCOfficial
@MotherwellFC
@JamTarts
*Again, Dundee United will (likely) end up with much more than 17 pts
No center back who has played at least 1,000 minutes has done a better job of keeping shots to the perimeter of his defensive area then
@Jon_Guthrie29
The numbers suggest it's his ability to read the play that has been the biggest influence on his success for
@LiviFCOfficial
*Updated Projected League Table*
Normally posted on Monday....is presented on a Sunday after everyone thought the model "lost its mind" last week.
Small sample sizes make for fickle projections...
Scoring Chances per 90 (these are kicked shots from the heart of the box &/or headers/kicked shots from within the 6-yard box).
Mind-blown emoji that James Tavernier is averaging more Scoring Chances than Alfredo Morelos (& before you ask...penalties are not included)
Lineups from May 2, 2021 - a 4-1 win for Rangers.
Since then one club has surgically overhauled their squad with real depths of talent...
Meanwhile, you wonder when Rangers will do the same?
Here's radar for
@Dcandeias11
- easily among the best players for
@RangersFC
this season & any tactical decisions need to include him in the starting eleven
Playing around with new visual for goalkeepers. Here's a look at
@HibernianFC
goalie Ofir Marciano, who has been among the very best in the league over the past three seasons. This data covers the beginning of the 2018-19 season to present.
It'll be a shame if Candeias is leaving
@RangersFC
- given his age of 31 I get it (especially if they are able to get any kind of transfer fee). However, he has been one of the best playmakers in Scotland since his arrival & that is difficult to replace
@LiviFCOfficial
Back on November 1st , Celtic beat St Mirren 2-1. Their actual pace for points after 11 matches was 100.18 points.
The model suggested their point total would actually be 87.19 points.
A month & a half later & their actual pace has 'caught up' with the projections.
Win Impact Rating leaders. Notice there is ONE full back in the top end of the leaderboard & his name is
@James_Tavernier
As good as Ryan Kent has been this season, early pick for the Player of the Year has to be Tav.
Updated Projected League table now has
@RangersFC
winning the league by six points. This may still be a long shot but....the model got a lot right early on last season so...🤔
James Tavernier has been great this season...but did you know that Declan John's Expected Assists per 90 is actually basically the same as Tav's. 0.24 compared to Tavernier's 0.23 xA per 90.
@RaithRovers
Only Lawrence Shankland has had a better goal output at that level in the past few years than Gullan who is set to return to
@HibernianFC
for the second half of the season.
I was pretty critical of
@RangersFC
signing Steven Davis & he really hasn't looked that good BUT....he's averaging 4.43 Key Passes per 90. Obviously it's a small sample size, but to give you some context...Stuart Armstrong led the league last season with 3.18 per 90.