What most analysis misses is the increased agency that Central Asian countries have over their own fates. The region is no longer a backdrop for the new Great Game, nor is it anyone’s backyard.
Honored to co-author this piece with
@jmurtazashvili
President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon to Vladimir Putin: "I ask you not to treat the Central Asian countries as if it is the former Soviet Union. Every country has it's own problems, traditions..."
🇺🇦🇰🇿Kazakhstan set up 2 Yurts of Invincibility in Bucha & Kyiv, there are plans to set them up in other cities of Ukraine.
Russia is furious w/ another "stab in its back" from an ally. But Moscow doesn't understand that its aggression makes ties between the 🇺🇦🇰🇿 ppl stronger
🧵
This year Xi Jinping did not congratulate his friend Vladimir Putin on his 70th birthday.
But two days ago Xi sent an official letter to Tajikistan's president Emomali Rahmon on his 70th birthday.
🇰🇿🇷🇺 Kazakhstan halts arms exports for a year. The Kazakh government did not give a reason for its decision. But Russian pro-gov telegram channels crow about this as if it's their achievement.
A mini thread about what is happening between Kazakhstan and Russia 🧵🔽
🇨🇳🇰🇿Xi Jinping: "No matter how the international situation changes, we will continue to resolutely support Kazakhstan in protecting its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity"
A hastily deleted post by 🇷🇺ex-president Dmitry Medvedev suggesting that after Ukraine, Moscow might turn its attention to the fate of Kazakhstan, was taken at face value by many.
Could Russia really enter into conflict with another of its neighbors? 🧵
The downside of this strategy is Russia's unpredictability. Many in Russia are already talking about the "denazification" of Kazakhstan.
However, Kazakhstan believes it has time while all of Russia's energy and resources are concentrated on the invasion of Ukraine.
@steveswerdlow
Yes, will agree that from all CA countries Uzbekistan has more freedom when it comes to relations with Russia as it is not a member of any Russia-led integrational projects and managed to keep the distance (considering they don't share a border). But it's still a bold speech, imo
The initiative was also supported by the 🇺🇦Kazakhstani diaspora. More than 60k ethnic Kazakhs live in 🇺🇦& more than 300k Ukrainians live in 🇰🇿(in the 1920s there were over 1.3m Ukrainians in 🇰🇿).
Thousands of families are the backbone of 🇺🇦🇰🇿 ties:
Kazakhstan embraces Russia's weak moment as an opportunity to enlarge its space for maneuvering in future cooperation/co-existing. That is why Kazakhstan is acting as boldly as it can and waits for Russia's reaction or indication of the new limits in the relationship.
Following Zakharova, the representative of Kazakhstan's MFA Aibek Smadiyarov briefly responded with "so what?"
"This is an initiative of private Kazakh companies. We cannot stop them. They assembled it themselves, delivered it, and set it up. We do not see any problems here"
The idea to set up "Yurts of Invincibility" belongs to Ukrainian MP Serhii Nagornyak (), the head of Verkhovna Rada's group for inter-parliamentary relations with Kazakhstan.
In 2021 Nagornyak came to the parliament in the colors of the flag of Kazakhstan
From the very beginning of the war in Ukraine Kazakhstan has avoided taking sides in the crisis while calling for its peaceful resolution.
But today many in Russia are regarding Kazakhstan’s actions as being unworthy of an ally.
🇷🇺🇰🇿Russian MP and deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee for CIS Affairs & Eurasian Integration Konstantin Zatulin was not allowed to enter Kazakhstan.
Earlier Zatulin was threatening Kazakhstan for taking a "slippery slope" in relations w/ Russia
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are sending rescue workers, doctors, K9 dogs & necessary equipment to Türkiye amidst the catastrophic earthquake.
Kazakhstan officially rejected all allegations. On the sideline, 🇰🇿government started to closely cooperate with other countries.
🇰🇿boosted its relations with Türkiye to the level of expanded “strategic partnership" & has agreed to exchange military intelligence info w/ 🇹🇷
Kazakhstan (and other Central Asian states) do not know where are the red lines right now in relations with Russia. Before February 24th the limits were obvious but the war became a storm that wiped the clarity off.
W/ every missile it fires at Ukrainian cities, the Kremlin is destroying RUS’s influence in Central Asia. This happens not only because ex-Soviet republics can easily imagine themselves in Ukraine's shoes, but also because thousands of their friends & relatives are being killed.
This is not the first time Central Asians help the ppl of Ukraine to survive while Russia's bombings leave thousands of homes w/out power, heat & water.
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It's official! I am a fellow
@CarnegieRussia
now 🎉
So grateful to my colleagues and the whole
@CarnegieEndow
family for believing in me & opening so many opportunities.
Have many plans, so stay tuned :)
The yurts were purchased and delivered from Kazakhstan by entrepreneur Daulet Nurzhanov (39th in Forbes top-50 richest KZ businessmen), the CEO of Kusto Agro, agribusiness in Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr & Khmelnytskyi regions of Ukraine.
Pro-Russian telegram channels actively claim that Kazakhstan exports arms and ammunition to Ukraine via proxies, by order from the UK.
The allegations are based on a supposedly leaked contract by which Kazakhstan allegedly exports Soviet weapons & ammunition to the UK
The new redlines between Russia and Kazakhstan will not be set only by 🇷🇺 or 🇰🇿. It is a mutual process where both need each other. But after the war and its isolation 🇷🇺 needs 🇰🇿 more than ever before.
The deeper Russia digs itself into a confrontation w/ the West, the more prepared Kazakhstan is to ditch Russia where possible while trying to avoid incurring losses as a result of Moscow’s displeasure
My latest for
@ForeignPolicy
(thanks,
@BeijingPalmer
)
The last event held by Putin in 2022 is the informal summit of the CIS leaders. Amidst talk of the impending end of Russia's influence in Central Asia, there's a record number of top-level meetings.
So what is happening: is Central Asia moving away from Russia, or ever closer?🧵
🇨🇳🇷🇺Friendship with no limits...
The Chinese Chouzhou Commercial Bank suspended transactions with Russia both via the Russian equivalent of SWIFT (SPFS) and the Chinese CIPS.
This was the main financial tool for Russian importers working with China.
This was the context of the meeting between Tokayev & Putin in Sochi.
The main message of Tokayev was that "there is no ground for making pessimistic forecasts regarding the future" of RUS-KZ relations.
Putin was friendly, but not talkative: "There are many questions..."
Coal that has to be transported by rail is more costly than the one transported by sea. So, that's why China imports coal from its neighbor land-locked Kazakhstan... by sea.
It takes a month for that coal to reach Zhejiang, and it's still cheaper than by rail.
Putin didn't mention Ukraine or the "conflict" at the Russia-Central Asia summit in Astana.
The reason is obvious: no Central Asian country would publicly support Moscow in its aggression. Receiving silence from its "allies" would have been a huge reputational blow for Putin.
Putin received official congratulations from the 1st President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev, President of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Japarov, President of Cuba Miguel Diaz-Canel Bermudez, President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan & President of South African Republic Cyril Ramaphosa
Uzbekistan's MFA reiterated its position on the war in Ukraine:
"🇺🇿 respects sovereignty, territorial integrity, non-interference in the internal affairs of other states <...>."
Some Central Asians joined Ukraine's military forces to fight against Russia:
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There is also evidence that Central Asians join 🇷🇺army but this often doesn't happen voluntarily. Look at these stories:
Although it's not a state-level initiative, Russia reacted as if it was. The 🇷🇺MFA spokesperson Maria Zakharova: "in order to avoid further unwinding of this damaging for 🇷🇺🇰🇿 alliance topic, an official comment by our friends is highly desirable"
Hi Twitter friends!
After a year+ of living as a nomad, I'm finally on my way to Germany, Berlin where I'll be based from now on.
Will be happy to meet everyone there in person and would also appreciate any help/advice on finding an apartment there (I heard it's tough).
🇷🇺🇨🇳 The end of no-limits China-Russia friendship
The new China-Russia joint statement doesn't have a phrase from the previous one (Feb 4) about "no limits friendship"
Rahmon's emotional speech at 'RUS+CA' summit is interpreted as a step back to USSR. Many claims that by saying "don't treat us like USSR" Rahmon means "treat us like USSR but better"
I don't agree w/ these takes and here's why. 🧵on the future of RUS in CA
A student from Ukraine has discovered her "copies" on Chinese social media, created using artificial intelligence. They talk about Russian-Chinese friendship and advertise goods from Russia.
Kazakhstan’s defiant rhetoric has been backed up by action, with 🇰🇿authorities sending humanitarian aid to Ukraine and maintaining contact with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
All 5 presidents of Central Asian states have given speeches dedicated to the 30-years Independence anniversaries or the Knowledge Day.
🇦🇫What each of them has said about Afghanistan?
⬇️THREAD⬇️
Beeline Kazakhstan cable TV and Internet provider (Bee TV and Internet at Home services) is notifying its customers that it’s suspending broadcasting of a number of RU govt-controlled channels, including Podeda, NTB, Rossiy 24, RTR Planeta, Perviy and many others, starting Oct 5
I have a feeling that on February 24th I didn't just routinely wake up, but came out of a coma in a completely different world.
The echo of the catastrophe in Ukraine for Central Asia will be the toughest test in the history of these 5 states. The stakes are high.
So honored and privileged to be a part of the Carnegie dream-team in Berlin. A new chapter for me, for all of my colleagues, and for
@CarnegieEndow
.
Stay tuned!
Can we already stop referring to the geopolitics in Central Asia as another "Great Game"? I understand why the Russian media loves this term but what's wrong with others? Please
Exports from the EU, the UK and US to some economies in Central Asia & the Caucasus increased by more than 80% in 2022, hinting at the rise of ‘intermediated trade’, whereby goods are being exported to Central Asian economies & then sold onwards to Russia.
@maxchupilkin
@EBRD
Some more personal news: the closure of the Carnegie office in Moscow doesn't mean we're stopping our work & here I want to thank my
@CarnegieEndow
colleagues for the strongest support.
Also, I'm excited to start a new research project at the
@OSCE_Academy
soon! Stay tuned :)
How many Russians migrated to Central Asia?
KZ🇰🇿92K
In 2022 1.66mln crossed the border
KG🇰🇬30K
In 2022 760K arrived & 730K left, 170K stayed for >month, 1.6K applied for & 603 got Kyrgyz citizenship
UZ🇺🇿?
395K crossed the border, 318K stayed for > 15days, 70K opened bank accounts
One thing worth mentioning here: China still doesn't have enough high-level specialists on Central Asia which is why the leader of Turkmenistan has to speak Russian, and gets the translation also in Russian.
President of Turkmenistan Serdar Berdimuhamedov had meeting with President of PRC Xi Jinping, the head of the state met with Premier of the State Council of the PRC Li Keqiang and Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress Li Zhanshu. China 🇨🇳🇹🇲 .
@nivayau
@CNguyenEc
To put it short and simple: Soviet leadership was afraid of espionage in the Soviet Far East, and in 1937 Stalin deported hundreds of thousands of ethnic Koreans from the border areas to uninhabited regions in Central Asia.
Each Central Asian country depends on 🇷🇺 & they don't want to anger it. At the same time, there's not a single CA country that can support 🇷🇺 actions toward 🇺🇦, as that would indirectly legitimize 🇷🇺 attempts to interfere in their own internal affairs
Before the war in Ukraine, I wouldn't pay much attention to statements like this.
Moscow city parliament deputy from the Communist Party Sergey Savostyanov suggests including Kazakhstan into a "demilitarization & denazification zone" to protect Russia's security interests.
⚡🇰🇿 Kairat Satybaldy, the nephew of the former president of Kazakhstan Nazarbayev detained on suspicion of abuse of power and embezzlement in Kazakhtelecom.
deNazarbayevization of Kazakhstan is continuing...
Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan have warned their citizens against joining foreign armies.
Also, earlier Ukraine said it had captured Uzbeks fighting alongside Russians.
Uzbekistan's embassy in Kyiv contacted Ukraine MFA to clarify information about two UZB citizens captured by UKR military forces. Allegedly UZB citizens were recruited by RUS to take part in war against Ukraine.
China’s strategy vis-à-vis Central Asia’s elites is undergoing an under-appreciated change. Beijing is shifting from working exclusively w/ the region’s incumbent leaders to support for pro🇨🇳 politicians & even making efforts to bring them to power.
THREAD
The European Union is planning to ask third countries that have seen a surge in imports from the EU of advanced technologies and other goods that could be used for military purposes by Russia in Ukraine to enhance trade monitoring.
@business
Exports from the EU, the UK and US to some economies in Central Asia & the Caucasus increased by more than 80% in 2022, hinting at the rise of ‘intermediated trade’, whereby goods are being exported to Central Asian economies & then sold onwards to Russia.
@maxchupilkin
@EBRD
🇷🇺🇨🇳Vladimir Putin to Xi Jinping: "The foreign policy tandem of Moscow & Beijing plays a key role in ensuring global & regional stability. We jointly stand for the formation of a just, democratic & multipolar world order based on international rules & the central role of the UN"
Starting from May 2nd traveling between Tashkent and Almaty will become much easier. Two sides are launching a regular fast train.
Here to more connectivity among Central Asian states :)
Russian state-owned media claim that the "Ukrainian assassin" Natalia Vovk not only used a license plate of Kazakhstan but also a Kazakh passport.
I don't like this story...
List of the results of presidential elections in some CIS countries at different times (without second rounds; the latest results are in bold):
99.50% Saparmurat Niyazov (Turkmenistan, 1992)
98.73% Heydar Aliyev (Azerbaijan, 1993)
97.75% Nursultan Nazarbayev (Kazakhstan, 2015)
Happy birthday to the one and only
@NivaYau
☀️ The smartest, hardworking and supportive colleague that I learn a lot from. Cannot imagine how lucky I am to have you not only as a colleague but a good friend! :)
Besides speeches and promises, Uzbekistan has been taking actions in accordance w/ its policy towards Afghanistan. Here's what Tashkent has done for now.
⬇️THREAD⬇️
Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will not attend the annual economic forum in Russia's St Petersburg next week, the government said on Friday, after refusing to toe the Kremlin's line over the Russian invasion of Ukraine at last year's event.
Nursultan Nazarbayev comparing himself to Jesus is the best moment of today's presidential election in Kazakhstan:
“Masimov worked with me for many years, but how would you know? Did Jesus Christ know about Judas sitting next to him?”
Kyrgyzstan refused to host CSTO "Indestructible Brotherhood" military drills this month. The reason is not announced but must be the outcome of the recent border conflict with Tajikistan.
It's the 2nd fail of CSTO this year. Earlier Armenia refused to participate in drills.
Italian farmers have turned to their counterparts in the former Soviet republic of Kyrgyzstan to fight the loss of the farming tradition on the island of Sardinia.
@silvia_sb_
@NastyaStognei
🇺🇦🇺🇿In an interview with
@gazeta_uz
@DmytroKuleba
warned Central Asian states:
"Look: you should all be really interested in our victory, all your countries. Because if we lose, then you will be steamrolled by [Russia]"
Many initiatives announced on the Samarkand summit of the Organization of Turkic States
-space of new economic opportunities
-ministerial committees on priority areas
-council of elders
-Center for Digitalization on the basis of the Astana Hub technopark
-Green Finance Council
🇰🇿 President Tokayev gave his first interview after the political crisis in Kazakhstan for
@tvkhabar24
I watched the whole thing so you don't have to, here's the interview in a nutshell⬇️
Russian citizens are flooding Central Asia, according to FSB statistics
In the 1st quarter of 2022:
5x more to 🇹🇯TAJ (40K vs 8K in 1Q2021)
3.5x more to 🇺🇿UZB (53K vs 15K)
1.7x more to 🇰🇿KAZ (205K vs 122K)
Almost the same amount to 🇰🇬KGZ (48K vs 45K)
In recent years, the mainstream narrative about Central Asia's geopolitical position came down to a simple take: "In its own backyard Russia is being replaced by China."
A🧵on why Central Asia is more than a 🇷🇺-CN chessboard
@AlexGabuev
@ForeignAffairs
Tigran Keosayan (a popular Russian propogandist, Putin supporter & a husband of RT's head Margarita Simonyan) is mad on Kazakhstan for not supporting RUS war on UKR.
"Kazakhs, brothers, <...> take a closer look at Ukraine. Think twice"
“The message is that China might not be stepping out of its way to violate the sanctions to help Russia, but it’s definitely not throwing Russia under the bus. If it’s neutrality, then it’s definitely pro-Russian neutrality.”
@AlexGabuev
All Central Asian states continue sending help to Türkiye:
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan's government is sending $1 mn aid.
🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan has opened an official bank account, anyone who wants to help can donate
🇮🇷 In Tajikistan's capital people can bring their donations to a special center
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are sending rescue workers, doctors, K9 dogs & necessary equipment to Türkiye amidst the catastrophic earthquake.
Uzbek workers at a waste processing plant in the western Russian city of Oryol, who were handed mobilisation notices and ordered to show up at the local conscription point, have asked their president for help.
Huawei may finally leave Russia. The has completely stopped direct deliveries of smartphones, tablets, laptops, TVs & other equipment to Russia and earlier relocated its employees from Russia to Central Asia.
The narrative right now is in the hands of young people. More than a half of the population in Uzbekistan is younger than 30, which means that they have many more questions about the Soviet Union and the Russian Empire, such as why we are not talking about decolonization?
In my latest for
@ForeignPolicy
, I explore the extent to which Russia's brutal full-scale invasion of Ukraine has prompted the emergence of anticolonial solidarity across the Eurasia region, plus possibilities for its future development