Based on EPS estimates for the past four quarters, the most accurate Tesla retail analyst was James Cat (
@TSLAFanMtl
), with a total error of just $0.16 across all four quarters. Well done James.
The next tweet has a version of this chart that shows the last 6 quarters.
Dear
@elonmusk
:
You make great products and have built strong brands. We love and support Tesla and SpaceX.
Your engagement in politics is an unnecessary distraction that hurts/polarizes your brand, and by association, your companies' brands.
Plz consider the effects of this
@elonmusk
@alex_avoigt
Dude just stop. Go back to posting/tweeting about cars and rockets. Even if you don’t intend to, you are offending a lot of your customer base by meddling into politics. It’s a lose-lose scenario.
The value of X has fallen dramatically since Elon’s acquisition, but the company is fundamentally more healthy now than it was when it was public.
- User base is growing and engagement is up.
- The company now had cost control.
- Employee productivity is way up.
- Many new
I can’t sleep I keep thinking about Tesla Bot.
The applications for Bot are endless..
Random example. Think of McDs. Minimum wage + benefits…say $40k/year.
If 1 bot replaces that 1 employee, payback period is 1 year. But McDs would capitalize the asset and only depreciation
List of things
@elonmusk
will say on the call next week:
“Order of magnitude”
“Prototypes are easy. Production is hard.”
“Autonomy will be the biggest asset value step change in human history.”
“Tesla has near infinite demand but the interest rates are too high.”
“I don’t
I engage a lot of Tesla bears; always have since I started using Twitter.
Their criticism tends to be focused on things that were promised but not delivered. Fair, I have that same criticism, in some cases.
But often this criticism is very short-term in nature.
Ex: Semi.
Tesla Giga Shanghai October production number is out and $TSLA built 87.7k cars in the month, smashing the previous record set last month of 82k.
This is exactly what we want to see for a strong Q4.
CORRECTION: Tesla posts record quarterly deliveries after price cuts, up 4% from Q4. An earlier tweet about Tesla's deliveries contained incorrect information. We are deleting that tweet
4680 production milestones
October 20, 2023 = 20 millionth cell
June 8, 2024 = 50 millionth cell
That's 30M cells in under 8 months.
September 13, 2024 = 100 millionth cell
That's 50M cells in a little over 3 months.
This is a very successful ramp.
My followers know that I am critical of Tesla when I feel it appropriate - CT/CT specs is NOT one of those times. The truck is incredible.
This is the world’s best truck. Best (performance + technology + features + durability + ruggedness + cool factor) per dollar.
Yes, price
Cybertruck presentation was wildly lacking in details. Final specs well below promised in almost every category:
2019: 500+ miles of range for $69,900
2023: 320 miles of range for $99,990
2019: windows can withstand a steel ball (almost)
2023: windows can withstand a baseball
One of my followers just sent me a DM that FSD drove him and his family from his house in downtown urbain Montreal to his lake house 90 minutes outside of the city. Zero interventions. He had never used FSD to take this route before.
🤯
Can Waymo do this? Can any other company
The average sale price of a new pickup truck in October 2023 in the US was $66k.
Why in the F of all Fs are people upset that CT is priced at $72.5k after IRA? I mean fuel savings alone will close that gap in like 1-2 yrs. Nevermind the fact that CT is infinitely better.
I'm going to ruin some of your days with this. I apologize.
$TSLA has been declining since Nov 2021. The resistance line drawn from the first 2 peaks (Nov 2021 and Jan 2022) has been tested and failed 4 times since then. Stocks tend to move from the top of these channels to the
FSD v12 went out in Jan-24.
FSD v12.2 went out in Feb-24.
FSD v12.3 went out in March-24.
The videos I am seeing on v12.3 show remarkable improvement over the previous versions - and I have never seen so much positive feedback across so many different users, at once. So the
I have always been fairly conservative with respect to FSD. But v12.3's improvement from v11 prompted me to take notice. Massive improvement on the new code. The question was then: can they do it again? Fast forward a few months, and we have another big jump. This strongly
If Elon had some sort of position in government with authority to make spending decisions, he would find ways to very quickly save billions in tax dollars per year. That would be a huge win for America.
So there are 100,000 ppl driving FSD Beta around.
Where are all the city st accidents? Where is the public outrage? Why aren't Teslas hitting everything?
FSD Beta, in its current form (with all conditions & driver restrictions), is SAFE. Any word to the contrary is FUD.
$TSLA
1/Megapack has been generating a lot of noise in the community lately. There has been a ton of great info shared by
@Zerosumgame33
on most every aspect of the Megapack business.
At first glance, the numbers seem too good to be true.
How can Megapack be this disruptive…
As much as I have criticized Elon for his decisions and actions from 2021 on, he clearly earned his comp package. A deal's a deal, imo. How is this even a question?
Saw this thing in person today.
WOW.
It is stunning. I couldn’t imagine being a truck person (I am not one) and NOT choosing this over dinosaurs legacy auto is pushing.
Also this delivery centre was very active. Sales guy told me they will clear the place in the next 2 days.
Just 3 years ago, Tesla detailed their plans for a new battery design that would feature a number of innovations, including innovative manufacturing methods.
Not only did they design the cell, but also all of the machinery to build the cell, the battery pack etc. - all from
Here is a comparison. Higher is better
Energy density at the pack level:
• 187 Wh/kg Model S/X 18650 cells
• 170 Wh/kg Cybertruck 4680 cells
• 169 Wh/kg Rivian R1T Large Pack 2170 cells
• 165 Wh/kg Model 3/Y Long Range 2170 cells
• 126 Wh/kg Model 3 Standard Range LFP cells
Apple's idea of innovation is improving a camera and adding colors every 12 months. If $AAPL is worth $3T, what's $TSLA worth?
Look at $TSLA's ambitions and plans. If they only accomplish 25% of them, it's worth a multiple of $AAPL.
For the record, I don’t think Elon is racist or an antisemite, but it doesn’t matter what I think (or what he thinks).
What matters is, as Tesla’s CEO, he has no business sticking his nose into this narrative to begin with. There’s literally nothing to gain from all this.
This is the perfect example of what one can do with “fk you money.” You can literally say “fk you” to whoever you want, whenever you want, as Elon has shown here.
It’s ok if Twitter/X is in financial crisis - Elon has the $TSLA piggy bank.
Elon responds to X advertises, specifically Disney CEO Bob Iger: “If someone is going to try to blackmail me with advertising, blackmail me with money, go fuck yourself”
I don't think Fremont has ever been this busy this early in a quarter. Ever. Record production if they can maintain this pace. There are cars everywhere. What a beautiful, hot mess.
$TSLA
It’s all playing out the way $TSLA bulls predicted. Legacy is hemorrhaging cash by trying to build/sell EVs while their ICE businesses lose volume and market share to Tesla. And it’s only going to get worse as Tesla keeps expanding production & launching new models.
I have a secret I wish to tell $TSLAQ.
Tesla raised prices by over 30% bc they *wanted* to slow demand. Wait til you see what a production rate of 500k/quarter does to costs. Wait till you see Berlin/Austin ramp costs go away. Wait till Model Y % shr of sales ⬆️.
🤫 Shhhh!
Would Elon Musk tolerate one of his employees sharing divisive political views on X and damaging purchase intention? No. That employee would be fired instantly.
And yet some shareholders give Elon a pass - more than a pass, they cheerlead him on, for doing the same thing on an
I remember not too long ago when Elon was getting called every name in the book from people and who accused him of fraud for Neuralink.
These people owe Elon and the Neuralink team an apology.
Wow.
The possibilities of this are endless.
He played it cool at the time but it’s nice to know that these things pissed him off as much as they pissed us off. Big fail
@POTUS
- this completely killed your credibility for many an EV fan.
@all_in_tok
Let’s not forget the White House giving Tesla the cold shoulder, excluding us from the EV summit and crediting GM with “leading the electric car revolution” in the same quarter that they delivered 26 electric cars (not a typo) and Tesla delivered 300 thousand.
1/ Tonights’s new video on Tesla’s Optimus triggered a thought. Progress seems to be very impressive. But how impressive is it, really? To answer this, I wanted to understand how Optimus compares to other humanoid robots in the world. So I started doing some research. A thread.
I think people are getting too caught up in the fact that this action was performed via a guide and ignoring the beauty and elegance of the action itself.
"A national survey found that 33 per cent of people are less likely to buy a Tesla because of Elon Musk, who has become far more involved with politics this year."
Well done
@elonmusk
. 2nd biggest market in Europe after Germany, which has already turned.
.
@elonmusk
personal development plan:
1. Hire a full-time Twitter CEO.
2. Stop tweeting about politics or politically-charged topics (easy enough - just pretend we live in China…)
3. Ignore personal attacks.
4. Show more humility.
5. Hire a personal PR team + listen to them.
I don’t give AF about
@elonmusk
political opinions; he is entitled to them. I only care when his communicating them on Twitter/X damages Tesla’s brand.
Putin has managed to unite the free world, galvanize the Germans to do something (a feat on its own), scare other border countries into joining Nato/EU, and cripple Russia's economy and humiliate his military - all in less than a week.
Elon keeps reinforcing it but we need to stop thinking that Tesla is cutting price because of interest rates.
This is false.
Tesla is cutting price because demand isn’t where they need it to be to reach the volume objectives. Other brands are not doing this. Are all of these
Legacy auto is stuck buying all their batteries from 3rd parties who all will sell to and prioritize $TSLA first bc they do SO much more volume...
Meanwhile, $TSLA over here locking up materials up and down the supply chain at an incredible pace.
It's going to get ugly...
So
@elonmusk
wants to build $TSLA to such a large scale that it will shift the entire energy and transportation infrastructure of the whole world. That's all.
The ramp appears to be going very well. Tesla making ~40 trucks/day now and increasing what seems like daily. At 40/day, that is ~12-15k/yr rate.
Ford sold 13.2k F150 ⚡️ between April-Dec 2022.
Tesla has been building CT for like 10 minutes and already close to this rate.
I
At some point in your life, there's a good chance you will suffer from back pain. I have bulging disks L4-L5 and L5-S1 and spinal stenosis. Almost couldn't walk at all or get out out of bed at one pointa few years ago. Completely crippled.
Consulted a spinal surgeon. Of course,
The Chinese have built this huge 4-story building and are starting to put up exterior walls while the Germans are still trying to finish the front lobby in the same amount of time.
I bet it will be a hell of a lobby, however.
$TSLA
I have so many “CT is fake and will never be built” posts bookmarked.
I think i’ll wait a bit longer before making fun of these people. Delayed gratification.
Simple question:
What is better for Tesla’s brand?
A) Elon stays neutral on politics and makes EVERYONE feel welcome at Tesla.
B) Elon craps on the left and alienates many Tesla’s most loyal supporters.
Why is this controversial? IDGAF about US politics. Protect the brand.
BREAKING: Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas has increased his $TSLA price target by 60% to $400 per share (from $250), and upgraded his rating to Overweight (from Equal-Weight). $TSLA is now their "Top Pick"
"We believe that Dojo can add up to $500B to
@Tesla
's enterprise value,
Psychologically prepare for sub $600s and plan to hold long term. $TSLA is only down bc the whole market is down. Q1 was its best quarter ever and the future is even brighter. That's my opinion on this crazy ass market.
Tesla selling Megapack for over $400/kWh and buying the battery from CATL for $100/kWh. The battery is roughly half the cost of a Megapack. Do the math on gross margin.
Let alone installation/service/maintenance revenues & profit.
The “Tesla is a car company” ppl will eat dirt.
GM CEO Mary Barra: “By mid-decade, we will be selling more EVs in this country (the US) than anyone else, including Tesla.”
GM sold a total of 457 electric vehicles in Q1 2022.
Hi everybody. Based on EPS estimates for the last 4 quarters, the most accurate Tesla retail analyst was James Cat (
@TSLAFanMtl
) with a total error of only 3+2+3+4= $0.12 in the last 4 quarters.
4 retail analysts were more accurate than Wall Street.
CT will be sold at Model X ASP except:
- No paint shop
- Rear and front castings
- Much less wiring
- Volume will be 2x for economies of scale
- In-house batteries
- Will receive $5.5k IRA battery manufacturing credit
No reason for CT to not be Tesla’s highest gross margin
Tesla’s strategy is to drive volume up, while driving costs down, keeping gross margin flat-ish while increasing fleet size ASAP to eventually sell downstream software. This is their end game.
All the while keeping operating expenses low to drive operating margin up.
The leaked Elon email today on CT initial build quality combined with his recent tweets on the subject suggest a different approach from past vehicle launches.
In the past, panel gaps and small things that can be corrected post-sale did not impede the production ramp.
This
If anyone believes this type of behaviour is appropriate from the CEO of Tesla and that there are no consequences/impact on people’s impressions of Tesla and their purchase intention, you are very naive.
Elon Musk has been a net negative for Tesla for years now. His great
If what
@elonmusk
is saying about "Funding Secured" is true and he was forced to lie about from the SEC, a lot of ppl owe Elon apology. That event is why many ppl got on the hate train.
It’s too cheap.
Model X LR
$72,490 (after tax credit)
670 HP
3.8s 0-60 mph
Audi SQ7 Prestige
$94,900
500 HP
4.3s 0-60 mph
Audi SQ8 Prestige
$101,500
500 HP
4.3s 0-60 mph
BMW iX M60
$111,500
610 HP
3.6s 0-60 mph
BMW X6 M60i
$93,600
523 HP
4.2s 0-60 mph
Mercedes AMG GLE 53
So $TSLA was trading around $123 before:
- Q4 delivery miss
- Massive China price cut
- Massive everywhere else price cut
Now trading at $119. I interpret this to mean that this news was already priced-in and we may be at the bottom. Assuming inflation keeps falling…bullish?
BREAKING: President Biden just acknowledged Tesla as the nations largest electric vehicle manufacturer!
@elonmusk
“From iconic companies, like GM and Ford building out new electric vehicle production, to Tesla, our nations largest electric vehicle manufacturer.”
Giga Texas appears to be running at full tilt.
- Outbound vehicle logistics lot = slammed
- Vehicle staging lot = slammed
- Employee parking lot = completely full
Lots of Cybertruks in the mix, too. Austin has the capacity for 500k Model Ys/yr and 250k CT/yr. Austin production