Chief Investment Strategist, Head of Investment Solutions & PM at Hightower Advisors. CNBC contributor. Treasure family time & a good run. Proud BC alum.
$MSFT: Pretty sure I am not buying something that sells at 24x forward EPS with GAAP OI down 8%, NI down 12% and EPS down 11%. Non GAAP just as bad. No touch for now.
Pretty glad I didn’t “have to buy” $GOOGL at $3K as some technical analysts suggested a few months ago. Fast forward I will say closer to $2K it is getting more interesting.
$NFLX: they "only" lost 970K subs and the stock is higher. Op margins missed by 170 initial guide and new guide is for 380 bps lower from 2Q. Not metrics I get excited about.
The interesting thing about today’s CPI is that food and shelter costs accelerated. And shelter is 32.5% of CPI. We are not at peak inflation. We are at persistent inflation.
The USA has the very best technology companies in the world. And yet we can’t figure out real time voting. Please tell me this isn’t by design and in 2 yrs this country will figure it out.
$FB: not an easy Q to digest w many surprises even as 1-2yr growth on many metrics solid - esp advertising, Ave rev/person, FCF. But Reels/etc investments vs competition & neg mix w/b overhang. Conserve guide, cheap stock keeps me involved. Marathon not a sprint - investor.
I would truly like to know how spending more on stimulus in a tight labor and supply economy leads to less inflation especially with disappointing productivity. Not opposed to learning.
$AAPL: According to $MS - App Store net rev declined -5% Y/Y in the month of Sept, the worst decline in the history of the data - China weakness & Japan/US growth slowed. Sept Q Services looks to be -8% vs 11% consensus.
Buy low and sell high is always hard to do - which is why I highlight strong fundamentals and companies that are best in breed, strong market share, FCF+++ and good capital allocation stories. Get these in days like today.
Important to remember: Ozempic is not approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for weight loss.
Go for a walk, a run , a meditation, a conversation.
I’ve been quite fortunate in my life to have a lot of help in my work and life journey. I just want to share a special thank you to my nanny, house manager, special lady and friend for 15 years in helping me and my family. There are no words other then thank you and love you.
I still believe Warren Buffett is the one to watch. In the past quarter he has bought $D pipeline, bought $BAC for 10 consecutive days and added to his own company’s stock by $4.1 billion. This is someone to pay attention to, respect and remain humble. Much smarter than most.
Senate passed Biden's $1.9T rescue plan - approval 1-2 wks. The number w/b v close to $1.9T. Congress has now $3T in stimulus to spend for 2021 vs $2T in 2020. Liquidity is very much driving equity markets which is why we continue to see "buy the dip".
#riskassets
#cyclicals
From $JPM: There is an old adage ”don’t fight the Fed,” but mkt behavior is not just fighting but also taunting the Fed with crypto, meme stocks, and unprofitable companies responding best to Fed communications. Retail activity (volumes) near record high w 20% vols.
$AAPL: strong Q with a beat in EPS, Revs, GM with ATH record revs in Services and MQ records in iPhones, Macs, Wearables. Dividend up 5% and a new BB at $90B - $20B more than I expected.
Hi all - my suggestion for this wknd is to do homework on some great long term equity opportunities - bc there are many out there.
My musical choice this week:
The Cranberries - All Over Now
Sometimes it's just not that hard: $SNOW at 6965x P/E and 65x P/S - stock down 30% AH vs $HPE 8x P/E, .8x P/S with a yield at 2.8% and moving higher - + 7%.
If the $1.9T new Biden stimulus bill passes (seems likely close to that number) that will add $450B to bank accounts by spring-time. For comparison, $130B just hit in January from the December package.
#consumer
#savings
Markets are quite challenging this year and remaining humble is key. That said it does no help to have market pundits talk extremes on either side. Stay balanced, diversified and don't look for the long ball. Fundamentals matter in the long run. Buy low and sell high.
Thank you all for a wonderful year of good conversation and ideas. Please stay safe and enjoy time with family and friends. I wish you the very best for the new year. One of my favorite holiday tunes: Mannheim Steamroller with this classic: Carol of the Bells. See you in 2022.
Have a wonderful weekend all and a very Merry Christmas!
Thank you for the fun and friendship this year!
Enjoy this lovely song:
David Gray's - You're the World to Me
July Las Vegas McCarran Airport traffic +9% m/m and down 7.9% vs 2019. This compares to prior month of +8.3% m/m - down 14.3% from 2019 levels. This group is incredibly oversold. $MGM $LVS $WYNN.
Interesting many cheered the CPI number today as it fell to 5% vs 6% y/y this month vs last. Yet half of the slowdown was driven by the DD drop in energy prices. Last checked - crude is now at highest levels since last November.
$FB: expectations quite low into print down 48% YTD but I keep coming back to DAU/MAUs that continue to run at 2-3B. This makes the 10m advertiser’s they have and the ROI most compelling. Plus FCF double expectations - incredible.
Messi, Federer, Nadal, Brady, Tiger, Phelps, S Williams, Pele, Jordan, Bryant, Bolt, Graf, Biles, Orr, Gretzky, Ali. Just a few of the all timers - I know I’m missing a ton. We are and have been lucky to witness.
#amazing
#respect
Great quote that Bill Gates relays from Warren Buffett: “You will move in the direction of the people that you associate with...it’s important to associate with people that are better than yourself..They will form you as you go through life”.
$AMZN (+27% YTD) has accounted for almost 30% of the $SPX’s gain YTD. $AMZN + $NFLX (+46%) + $MSFT (+7%) together have contributed close to 50% of the index gains. And the Tech sector overall has driven more than 75% of the $SPX’s YTD gains.
Great stat from Barrons: 36 number of battery gigafactories under development in UK/Europe currently. Of which - 1 is $TSLA. This is why P/E matters over the long term.
Let's rememeber when we last saw a recession (which i am not calling for in 2022) $GOOGL digital ads fell 30%. A mild recession/slow down could mean 10-20%. Stock not unreasonable at 19x down 20% YTD. Not involved - still feel $FB at 13x earnings, 8x EBITDA is more washed out.
Interesting stat: Housing pent up demand - there are 3m renters with household income > $150k in the US and 5m+ millennials aging into the peak home buying age over the next 5-10 years. The country remains 5m homes short of demand.
$INTC: one of "the" value traps out there with a miss to TR, EPS and a 1200 bps decline in y/y margins - with another 480 bps decline next Q. This is more than the industry's cyclical downturn.
Merry Christmas to everyone who celebrates & Happy Holidays to all.
Thank you for the banter this year - we all learn every day.
Please enjoy this amazing song:
Andrea Bocelli and Giorgia Todrani - Vivo Per Lei
(which means in Italian - I live for her)
Many thanks to
@WilfredFrost
@CNBCClosingBell
for inviting me on the show today. Wilf - it's been a pleasure and an honor to work with you. Best of luck to you!
Fun EPS after close: Wish $AMD was cheaper but impressive across the board (own/like $NXPI/$AVGO), very solid $GOOGL and split helps but still prefer $FB - in FANG, $SBUX is a must watch as it falls on valuation that actually may start to get buyable, and $PYPL no words, a mess.
Hey all - getting a few folk that have received a dupe of my account - apologies for the annoyance. Just want to let you know & thank $TWTR - that I am now verified. Looking forward to continuing to having fun and sharing knowledge. Stay safe and be well.
Seeing more and more strategist lower $SPX estimates for 2023 (finally and where have they been) to $180-$190. Keep in mind the 5 yr average is $184 and equities just fell 20%+ last year - discounting a lot already.
Watching housing decelerate: US Mortgage applications fell for the second week in a row and are now down 7.2% y/y led by decline in the Refi Index. Watching affordability.
So excited to be starting a new role at
@HightowerAdvsor
leading the Investment Solutions group. As Chief Investment Strategist & Portfolio Manager I will be supporting advisors with portfolio consulting, research & analysis, and running my own portfolio.
Have a lovely weekend. I get to see my Mom for the first time in a year.
#TREASURE
This was a pair of musicians that I didn't expect:
Nelly and Florida Georgia Line "Lil Bit". Great run this morning.
Some of the best long term advice on elections from Capital Group: no matter who wins 18 of last 19 decades if you invested $10K day of election you’d have made $$ 10 years later and 15 of those yrs you’d have doubled your $$. Think long term please.
This week: 35% of the $SPX is scheduled to report earnings. 49% of market cap. 21% of the consumer is reporting, 43% of market cap and 30% ex $AMZN. Largest: $AAPL, $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $V, $META, $XOM, $PG, $MA, $PFE, $CVX, $KO.
Welcome to the Santa Claus rally post CPI at less than expected .1% m/m and 7.1% y/y - thanks to goods inflation lower than expected. Core services still quite high driven by wages so Fed still likely goes 50bps tmrw and another 25 bps Feb/March. We can deal with that in 2023.
Busy eps week:
top 5 $SPX names reporting - $AAPL, $MSFT, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $FB - 22.4% of $SPX - all reporting in one week, which has only happened 4 other times.
US banks: The systemically important banks have over $400 billion in excess capital and well above Basel III minimum Tier 1 capital ratio of 8%. They have complained about this for 15 yrs post GFC. Not so much now… But are in much stronger position vs OUS. $XLF
$OXY: doing what they said they would w $3B buybacks in 4Q, repaid $940M of debt and retired $450M of notional interest rate swaps for approximately $170M in cash. In ‘22
repaid over $10.5B of debt. More BB coming and likely dividend hikes as well. 6x EPS.