Stephanie Link Profile
Stephanie Link

@Stephanie_Link

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Chief Investment Strategist, Head of Investment Solutions & PM at Hightower Advisors. CNBC contributor. Treasure family time & a good run. Proud BC alum.

NJ/NY
Joined January 2012
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
The velocity of this move has been staggering: 30 Year fixed mortgage rates at 6.28% versus 5.50% last week.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
Can honestly say i have never heard a Fed Chair say "there will be pain to households and businesses" as they fight inflation.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
Strategic Petroleum Reserve release today at 8.4mb - largest release ever and is now at the lowest level since Oct 1984.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
Super Women! These are the smartest investors I know. ⁦ @GilmanHill ⁩ ⁦ @karenfinerman ⁩ ⁦ @ShannonSaccocia
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
1 year
$MSFT: Pretty sure I am not buying something that sells at 24x forward EPS with GAAP OI down 8%, NI down 12% and EPS down 11%. Non GAAP just as bad. No touch for now.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
Pretty sure I don’t need to hear any more about $TSLA $TWTR or $FTX. So many other more important stories and stocks to discuss.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
1 year
Our government on both sides have forgotten to govern. What a shame for all of us.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
Pretty glad I didn’t “have to buy” $GOOGL at $3K as some technical analysts suggested a few months ago. Fast forward I will say closer to $2K it is getting more interesting.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
Wrapping my head around why anyone thinks Fed pivot: employment cost index came in at 5.0%, core PCE 5.1% - both accelerated m/m.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
FYI: 80% of Russia’s natural gas sales go to Europe and 36% of Russia’s total budget come from oil and natural gas sales.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
$NFLX: they "only" lost 970K subs and the stock is higher. Op margins missed by 170 initial guide and new guide is for 380 bps lower from 2Q. Not metrics I get excited about.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
The interesting thing about today’s CPI is that food and shelter costs accelerated. And shelter is 32.5% of CPI. We are not at peak inflation. We are at persistent inflation.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
$NVDA beats but lowers guide. 29x is not cheap.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
Why do we continue to discuss crypto? Broken and Irrelevant. Until there is regulation.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
The USA has the very best technology companies in the world. And yet we can’t figure out real time voting. Please tell me this isn’t by design and in 2 yrs this country will figure it out.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
Tough afternoon for $NFLX. Let's see what those 31 sell side analysts that have a buy on it do tmrw.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
1 month
Let’s go Rangers!
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
$COST raises dividend 13.9%. Definition of compounder.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
Useful for context: 10 yr yields peaked in 1981 at 15.8%.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
1 year
Decided inmates don’t run the asylum. Thanks so much for the friends here. Will likely block half the time to the trolls. Moving along…
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
4 years
My first day at Hightower! Looking forward to creating value for our advisors and clients!
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
Elon should be nowhere near $TWTR.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
1 year
There are 26 names in the Russell 1000 with short interest > 20% of the float. On average, those names are up 30% YTD.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
$FB: not an easy Q to digest w many surprises even as 1-2yr growth on many metrics solid - esp advertising, Ave rev/person, FCF. But Reels/etc investments vs competition & neg mix w/b overhang. Conserve guide, cheap stock keeps me involved. Marathon not a sprint - investor.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
Probably dating myself but Eminem is classic.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
3 years
This is not a normal bond market - 1.14% 10 yr yesterday and now 1.28% today.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
3 years
And so it begins: $BAC raises dividend 17%. Yield now 2.2%. Way more compelling than the 10 yr.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
7 months
Sad afternoon on the passing of Charlie Munger - Warren Buffett’s #2 . Full life at 99 years young who taught us a ton over the years.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
3 years
I would truly like to know how spending more on stimulus in a tight labor and supply economy leads to less inflation especially with disappointing productivity. Not opposed to learning.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
$AAPL: According to $MS - App Store net rev declined -5% Y/Y in the month of Sept, the worst decline in the history of the data - China weakness & Japan/US growth slowed. Sept Q Services looks to be -8% vs 11% consensus.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
11 months
Some how this isn’t getting enough attention in my opinion in the equity markets and inflation reports: WTI Crude is up 24.09% since June 12th.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
Buy low and sell high is always hard to do - which is why I highlight strong fundamentals and companies that are best in breed, strong market share, FCF+++ and good capital allocation stories. Get these in days like today.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
3 months
Important to remember: Ozempic is not approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for weight loss. Go for a walk, a run , a meditation, a conversation.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
I’ve been quite fortunate in my life to have a lot of help in my work and life journey. I just want to share a special thank you to my nanny, house manager, special lady and friend for 15 years in helping me and my family. There are no words other then thank you and love you.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
4 years
I still believe Warren Buffett is the one to watch. In the past quarter he has bought $D pipeline, bought $BAC for 10 consecutive days and added to his own company’s stock by $4.1 billion. This is someone to pay attention to, respect and remain humble. Much smarter than most.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
$SNAP down 52% YTD before this announcement. Now another 25%? Why Price/Sales valuations are impossible metrics.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
3 years
Senate passed Biden's $1.9T rescue plan - approval 1-2 wks. The number w/b v close to $1.9T. Congress has now $3T in stimulus to spend for 2021 vs $2T in 2020. Liquidity is very much driving equity markets which is why we continue to see "buy the dip". #riskassets #cyclicals
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
1 year
From $JPM: There is an old adage ”don’t fight the Fed,” but mkt behavior is not just fighting but also taunting the Fed with crypto, meme stocks, and unprofitable companies responding best to Fed communications. Retail activity (volumes) near record high w 20% vols.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
$AAPL: strong Q with a beat in EPS, Revs, GM with ATH record revs in Services and MQ records in iPhones, Macs, Wearables. Dividend up 5% and a new BB at $90B - $20B more than I expected.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
Hi all - my suggestion for this wknd is to do homework on some great long term equity opportunities - bc there are many out there. My musical choice this week: The Cranberries - All Over Now
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Stephanie Link
5 months
Serious FOMO happening - just an observation.
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Stephanie Link
2 years
Sometimes it's just not that hard: $SNOW at 6965x P/E and 65x P/S - stock down 30% AH vs $HPE 8x P/E, .8x P/S with a yield at 2.8% and moving higher - + 7%.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
3 years
If the $1.9T new Biden stimulus bill passes (seems likely close to that number) that will add $450B to bank accounts by spring-time. For comparison, $130B just hit in January from the December package. #consumer #savings
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
Markets are quite challenging this year and remaining humble is key. That said it does no help to have market pundits talk extremes on either side. Stay balanced, diversified and don't look for the long ball. Fundamentals matter in the long run. Buy low and sell high.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
3 years
Thank you all for a wonderful year of good conversation and ideas. Please stay safe and enjoy time with family and friends. I wish you the very best for the new year. One of my favorite holiday tunes: Mannheim Steamroller with this classic: Carol of the Bells. See you in 2022.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
4 years
If $IBM can beat on cloud (RHAT up 17%) just imagine what the big 3 will do - $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG.
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Stephanie Link
2 years
Remarkable - we all remain humble as PMs and this is a reminder as to why: Ackman Loses More Than $430 Million on Three-Month $NFLX Bet
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Stephanie Link
2 years
Have a wonderful weekend all and a very Merry Christmas! Thank you for the fun and friendship this year! Enjoy this lovely song: David Gray's - You're the World to Me
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
3 years
July Las Vegas McCarran Airport traffic +9% m/m and down 7.9% vs 2019. This compares to prior month of +8.3% m/m - down 14.3% from 2019 levels. This group is incredibly oversold. $MGM $LVS $WYNN.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
1 year
Interesting many cheered the CPI number today as it fell to 5% vs 6% y/y this month vs last. Yet half of the slowdown was driven by the DD drop in energy prices. Last checked - crude is now at highest levels since last November.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
3 years
Sold $PYPL for an 80% gain. Yes - sellers remorse but let’s keep it all into perspective. #stayhumble
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
$FB: expectations quite low into print down 48% YTD but I keep coming back to DAU/MAUs that continue to run at 2-3B. This makes the 10m advertiser’s they have and the ROI most compelling. Plus FCF double expectations - incredible.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
Messi, Federer, Nadal, Brady, Tiger, Phelps, S Williams, Pele, Jordan, Bryant, Bolt, Graf, Biles, Orr, Gretzky, Ali. Just a few of the all timers - I know I’m missing a ton. We are and have been lucky to witness. #amazing #respect
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
$AMZN announces $10B buyback but it replaces the $5B buyback announced in 2016 which has $2.9B left. #confusing
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Stephanie Link
4 years
Great quote that Bill Gates relays from Warren Buffett: “You will move in the direction of the people that you associate with...it’s important to associate with people that are better than yourself..They will form you as you go through life”.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
6 years
$AMZN (+27% YTD) has accounted for almost 30% of the $SPX’s gain YTD. $AMZN + $NFLX (+46%) + $MSFT (+7%) together have contributed close to 50% of the index gains. And the Tech sector overall has driven more than 75% of the $SPX’s YTD gains.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
Sometimes boring is good: $PG raises dividend by 5%.
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Stephanie Link
2 years
The U.S. share of the semiconductor industry was nearly 40% in 1990 yet is now just 12%.
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Stephanie Link
1 year
Interesting stat on Trevor Lawrence: he’s never lost a game on a Saturday - high school, college or professional.
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Stephanie Link
2 months
Price increases gone too far: $SBUX misses on revs, eps, sss with US down 3% and global down 4%. Transactions most telling down 6%.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
Great stat from Barrons: 36 number of battery gigafactories under development in UK/Europe currently. Of which - 1 is $TSLA. This is why P/E matters over the long term.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
$LULU inventory up 84.5%. Not immune to what many others have said. Problem is at 37x forward P/E.
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Stephanie Link
4 years
Merry Christmas! God bless and stay safe.
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Stephanie Link
3 years
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Thankful for all of you. Enjoy the day. Be safe.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
Let's rememeber when we last saw a recession (which i am not calling for in 2022) $GOOGL digital ads fell 30%. A mild recession/slow down could mean 10-20%. Stock not unreasonable at 19x down 20% YTD. Not involved - still feel $FB at 13x earnings, 8x EBITDA is more washed out.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
I have a lot of respect for Jeremy Siegel but in truth I did not understand anything that he said today. @HalftimeReport
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
1 year
Interesting stat: Housing pent up demand - there are 3m renters with household income > $150k in the US and 5m+ millennials aging into the peak home buying age over the next 5-10 years. The country remains 5m homes short of demand.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
Favorite group night.
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Stephanie Link
1 year
$INTC: one of "the" value traps out there with a miss to TR, EPS and a 1200 bps decline in y/y margins - with another 480 bps decline next Q. This is more than the industry's cyclical downturn.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
6 months
Merry Christmas to everyone who celebrates & Happy Holidays to all. Thank you for the banter this year - we all learn every day. Please enjoy this amazing song: Andrea Bocelli and Giorgia Todrani - Vivo Per Lei (which means in Italian - I live for her)
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
Interesting tidbit: CEO Tim Cook - has seen a sevenfold increase in market cap since he took over for Steve Jobs. $AAPL
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Stephanie Link
2 years
Fun EPS after close: Wish $AMD was cheaper but impressive across the board (own/like $NXPI/$AVGO), very solid $GOOGL and split helps but still prefer $FB - in FANG, $SBUX is a must watch as it falls on valuation that actually may start to get buyable, and $PYPL no words, a mess.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
3 years
Hey all - getting a few folk that have received a dupe of my account - apologies for the annoyance. Just want to let you know & thank $TWTR - that I am now verified. Looking forward to continuing to having fun and sharing knowledge. Stay safe and be well.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
1 year
Seeing more and more strategist lower $SPX estimates for 2023 (finally and where have they been) to $180-$190. Keep in mind the 5 yr average is $184 and equities just fell 20%+ last year - discounting a lot already.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
And so it begins: Biden to Meet Powell to Discuss Economy as Inflation Bites
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Stephanie Link
3 years
Watching housing decelerate: US Mortgage applications fell for the second week in a row and are now down 7.2% y/y led by decline in the Refi Index. Watching affordability.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
Nice to see $SBUX Interim CEO Howard Schultz buying 137.5K shares.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
Re-reading a few bank transcripts - consumer trends: $JPM credit/debit spend +22%, travel/dining strong, T&E accelerated in 1Q +64%, credit is “extraordinarily good”; WFC credit card spend +33% w strength in travel, dining, entertain, fuel; $USB credit card spend +33%, T&E +75%.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
17 out of 19 Fed officials now see FF above 5% vs zero in September. #hawkish
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Stephanie Link
4 years
So excited to be starting a new role at @HightowerAdvsor leading the Investment Solutions group. As Chief Investment Strategist & Portfolio Manager I will be supporting advisors with portfolio consulting, research & analysis, and running my own portfolio.
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Stephanie Link
3 years
Have a lovely weekend. I get to see my Mom for the first time in a year. #TREASURE This was a pair of musicians that I didn't expect: Nelly and Florida Georgia Line "Lil Bit". Great run this morning.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
4 years
$AAPL sold 3.9m iPhones in China in April +160% from March vs 1.5 m. That’s progress.
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Stephanie Link
3 years
From our friend Tom Lee - “Value stocks are at lowest 10% of valuation relative to Growth, even lower than Tech-bubble era”.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
4 years
Some of the best long term advice on elections from Capital Group: no matter who wins 18 of last 19 decades if you invested $10K day of election you’d have made $$ 10 years later and 15 of those yrs you’d have doubled your $$. Think long term please.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
I have some cash and added to : META ACN DE. Buy low/sell high.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
7 months
Happy Thanksgiving to all. Appreciate you. Enjoy this favorite of mine David Sanborn - The Dream
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
This week: 35% of the $SPX is scheduled to report earnings. 49% of market cap. 21% of the consumer is reporting, 43% of market cap and 30% ex $AMZN. Largest: $AAPL, $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $V, $META, $XOM, $PG, $MA, $PFE, $CVX, $KO.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
Welcome to the Santa Claus rally post CPI at less than expected .1% m/m and 7.1% y/y - thanks to goods inflation lower than expected. Core services still quite high driven by wages so Fed still likely goes 50bps tmrw and another 25 bps Feb/March. We can deal with that in 2023.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
3 years
Busy eps week: top 5 $SPX names reporting - $AAPL, $MSFT, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $FB - 22.4% of $SPX - all reporting in one week, which has only happened 4 other times.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
1 year
US banks: The systemically important banks have over $400 billion in excess capital and well above Basel III minimum Tier 1 capital ratio of 8%. They have complained about this for 15 yrs post GFC. Not so much now… But are in much stronger position vs OUS. $XLF
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
Have a nice weekend. Go for a run, a walk, a hike, paint, or just try to relax. Tough week. Never gets old: Young Bloods - Get Together
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
1 year
Happy Birthday my friend @jimcramer - always happy to celebrate the first of the day with both of our celebrations.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
3 years
Have never seen positivity like this - even in Europe. Incredible first hand pent up demand, resiliency, determination. $staystrong $goworld
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
1 year
$OXY: doing what they said they would w $3B buybacks in 4Q, repaid $940M of debt and retired $450M of notional interest rate swaps for approximately $170M in cash. In ‘22 repaid over $10.5B of debt. More BB coming and likely dividend hikes as well. 6x EPS.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
Note to CEOs - we as investors don't need to hear fluff ahead of the financials. No offense $NKE.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
4 years
So far 30.5% of the S&P 500 market cap have reported: 79% have beat earnings by an average of 13.7%.
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
2 years
Fed Chair: "We have a ways to go on rates...and it's premature to talk about a pause".
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@Stephanie_Link
Stephanie Link
3 years
Congratulations to ⁦ @ScottWapnerCNBC ⁩ ⁦ @HalftimeReport ⁩ - so many great memories. Thank you!
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