Mikołaj Zakrzowski @StackSmartly Twitter profile

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

4 months

My #Bitcoin Crystal Ball Bands are no longer publicly available on CryptoQuant. The only way to get weekly updates of Crystal Ball Bands is by joining the Global Traders Discord. Link in bio.

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Hi all, I would like to present to you my recent work. I created powerful on-chain metric which I called #Bitcoin Illiquid Divergence. It spots divergences between Bitcoin price and illiquid supply. Have a look 👀 🧵1/8

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Introducing an upgraded version of my #Bitcoin Aggregate Risk model 💥 Navigate #Bitcoin cycles without a hassle. 🧵1/10

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

3 years

As I promised, here's the thread where I show 10 on-chain metrics that I aggregated together to create #Bitcoin Aggregate Risk. I only chose long-term metrics as they are the best when it comes to zooming out and navigating through the cycle Data source @glassnode 🎯1/11

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Hi all, I have something really interesting to share with you. I've recently created a new metric, which signals when long-term hodlers are cashing out, therefore I called it 'Exit Liquidity Risk'. My metric was peer-reviewed by @_Checkmatey_ and @dpuellARK 😉 🧵1/7

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

As of now, short-term holders are essentially dead. Only smart money survived. Healthy sign for #Bitcoin

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

#Bitcoin miners have capitulated. Negative net flows are either a result of profit realization or capitulation. This time, miners sold their coins during a heavy dump so it's obviously capitulation. And as it is with every capitulation, that's a healthy sign for #Bitcoin

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

This is probably the most precise #Bitcoin support line that you can find. It dates back to 2010. The chart below is a log-log plot. It means that the logarithmic scale is applied both on price and on the number of days since the genesis block. h/t @hcburger1

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Now bonus, let's zoom in 😉 We are exactly at the support. Personally I think that we have a decent chance to go up in the coming weeks as there's massive bullish divergence between #Bitcoin price and Illiquid Supply 🧵8/8

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

45 million dollars of short liquidations in 10 minutes. Last time a comparable amount of short liquidations happened was 4 months ago. #Bitcoin shorts just got heavily squeezed 👀

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Shout-out to @5millionM for this clever observation. Compared to year ago, we are now sitting at nearly the same #Bitcoin price, but the important difference is that right now there are 3 times more stablecoins just waiting to stack some sats

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Look #Bitcoin bears, I will show you something. With each cycle, drawdowns from ATH are getting lower due to market maturation. Yet some folks are still forecasting -93% drop as if we were in 2011. I am trading based on the patterns that I see and I think the bottom is close.

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Wow, #Bitcoin Dormancy Flow got rekt.

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Here's #Bitcoin dynamic that you should keep your eyes on 👀 When USDT dominance drops to support line, there is no dry powder to buy #Bitcoin hence price drops. Currently, we still have a room to go up 🔥

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

3 years

#Bitcoin Mayer Multiple is a tool that was designed to signal oversold and overbought levels. It was created by @TraceMayer and following his original analysis the oversold level is below 0,8 and overbought level is above 2,4. Let's visualize it and see how it fits 👀 🧵1/5

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

1 year

Just a short reminder that #Bitcoin bottom is already in. Here's a log-log plot of #Bitcoin price and the number of days since the genesis block.

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

We have nearly exactly the same #Bitcoin price as 365 days ago. In other words - ranging market.

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Why do I think #Bitcoin has most probably already bottomed out? Because of the confluence that I see among numerous long-term metrics. Firstly, the MVRV Ratio has already bottomed out. It means that the current market price is very cheap compared to on-chain cost basis. 1/🧵

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

#Bitcoin has never had 6 red weekly candles in a row. As of now, the 6th weekly candle is closing in five days. If history rhymes, then we can expect a pump on a current 6th weekly candle 💥

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Finally, I made an oscillator from my model with log lines. Have a look 👀 🧵4/4

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

A picture that says more than a thousand words.

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

3 years

Hi all! I've just made #Litecoin Aggregate Risk by aggregating together 5 on-chain metrics. Key observations 🎯 - Most probably we haven't reached top yet - Risk Score sits now at 4.27 so it seems like a good place to accumulate Check out 5 on-chain metrics that I've used 👇

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

3 years

Crypto space loves Fear & Greed Index, but is it really that useful? Inspired by @cryptopou I decided to do my own research on it. Firstly, I downloaded the data and visualized it. Have a look 👀 🧵1/8

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

There's an interesting #Litecoin dynamic. Fundamentals are still looking healthy, despite recent price action. Here are charts comparing btc, eth and ltc active addresses. Active addresses of $BTC rose by about 50%, $ETH by 162% and $LTC by 378% from April 2019

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Some people tend to laugh at #Litecoin but it is actually supported by more ATMs worldwide than #Ethereum Thoughts? 🧐

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

From then, Exit Liquidity Risk is working like clockwork. Its main use case is calling tops and it calls them with decent accuracy 🎯 🧵6/7

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Imagine being #Bitcoin bear at these levels.

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

The feedback on my failed #Bitcoin Illiquid Divergence got me thinking that some metrics may be in fact heavily influenced by #Bitcoin price and we don't even notice it. So I started digging deeper and I discovered something that I think is really ground-breaking 👇 🧵1/7

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

I hope this metric will help you in making better, data-driven investment decisions. Cheers! 😉 🧵7/7

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Currently we have the same amount of #Bitcoin illiquid supply, as a percentage of total circulating supply, as we had when the price was at 63k. Market hasn't priced it in yet? 😉

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Weak hands have been officially shaken out.

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Now the best part - I will show you how freaking precise this metric actually is. Let's start from calling the bottoms 🎯 🧵4/8

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

I am thinking about regularly publishing a lite version of my #Bitcoin Aggregate Risk Model on Twitter, each Monday, for free. The lite version would aggregate fewer long-term metrics than the main model. If you guys are interested, make some noise for the Twitter algo 🤠

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

A tale of 3 major #Bitcoin support trend lines. Everything started from the logarithmic trend line when it screamed 'buy'. 1/🧵

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

New on-chain metric alert 🚨 Introducing #Bitcoin Sell-Side Risk. This metric quantifies the overall risk in the market connected to an excessive amount of Bitcoins that are being sold at a given time. Let's break it down 😉 🧵1/7

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

I need to clarify one thing regarding #Bitcoin Illiquid Divergence. I’ve received great feedback from @kenoshaking @_Checkmatey_ and @SwellCycle . They pointed out the problem with my metric

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Let's celebrate my 10k followers 🍾 I am giving away 10 free lifetime memberships to my Stack Smartly newsletter. All you have to do to participate in the giveaway is retweet this post. In 24 hours I will randomly select winners and contact them via DM. Good luck everyone!

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

3 years

#Litecoin is about to hit its' ATH in terms of Total Transfer Volume I found something even more interesting in this chart 👇 🧵1/2

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

#Bitcoin Percent Supply in Profit is currently at 50,74% Very close to undervaluation territory.

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

8 months

Nobody is willing to sell their #Bitcoin at the moment. Exchange depositing transactions are uber low. In one word 👉 accumulation LFG 🚀

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Just keep it simple. #Bitcoin

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

I've just found very unique metric that has proven to be accurate in spotting #Bitcoin tops. These are stacked unrealized profit bands. When we have too much unrealized profits, people start to cash out and as a result #Bitcoin price drops. h/t @bullfromsea

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Altcoins are way harder to model than #Bitcoin due to the limited amount of data. This is my best shot when it comes to #Litecoin Currently, Risk Score sits at 1.64 Risk Score has historically been lower only 12,1% of the time.

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

I believe this is one of the most solid on-chain metrics as it is made of powerful components. It was accurately signaling excellent time periods for accumulation and for distribution. 🧵6/7

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Today I would like to debunk one of the biggest #Bitcoin myths. The myth goes like that - the more money investor has invested, the smarter his decisions are. Most people are very fascinated with 'whales' and want to follow their moves but that's just pure nonsense. 🧵1/11

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

3 years

Now, having these 2 lines I was able to make an oscillator ranging from 0 to 1. I called it Adjusted Mayer Multiple because I adjusted it to diminishing range. Have a look at my work 😊 🧵4/5

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

There are tons of MAs being posted every day which are irrelevant to price action. Let me show you one of the best long-term moving averages for #Bitcoin - Exponential Hull Moving Average. Firstly, check out how accurate it was in defining long-term trends 👇

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

What is the fair value of #Bitcoin ? I found a formula that can be used to identify the fundamental value of #Bitcoin . I think the results are very promising, but I will leave the judgment to you 😉 🧵1/5

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Lastly, I will be happy If you still decide to follow my future work as I have many ideas in my mind that just need some time to develop 😊

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

#Bitcoin is currently trading very close to average mining costs. The prices of commodities tend to oscillate around production cost, so this measure can be extended to indicate a price floor for #Bitcoin

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Now let's look at calling the tops 🎯 🧵5/8

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

What do fundamentals say about recent #Bitcoin 's pump? Risk/Reward ratio remains constructive. Currently Risk Score sits at 4.01 👀

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Magic trick for the #Bitcoin bears.

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

1 year

You wanna see fear during #Bitcoin bottoms. When CBOE's put/call ratio is high, it means that protective puts are dominating the options market. That's exactly the moment to go long.

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

That's how I came up with a formula: 👉 log (Price / (Price - MVOCDD)) After applying the log scale on the chart, this is the result that we get. 🧵4/7

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Price 📈 and Illiquid Supply 📉 = Metric 📈 ( sell ) It signals bearish divergence Price 📉 and Illiquid Supply 📈 = Metric 📉 ( buy ) It signals bullish divergence 🧵3/8

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

To explain how it spots divergences let's look at the formula: (Price / Price 90 DMA) / (Illiquid Supply / Illiquid Supply 90 DMA) I will try to illustrate the formula in a simple way 👇 🧵2/8

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Conclusion - I think that you should be aware of such correlation and keep in mind that these metrics are nearly the same. I had to share it with you because I find it really fascinating and I also want you to make smarter, more data-driven investment decisions. Stay safe! 🧵7/7

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

10 days

The cycle is not over. The top is not in.

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

The supply side looks healthy. Right now, long-term holders stopped their accumulation but at the same time, they are not willing to sell #Bitcoin at current levels. I think that currently, our job is to simply patiently wait for the demand to kick in.

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

#Bitcoin Adjusted Mayer Multiple is screaming 'buy me' right now. Such low levels were historically marking macro bottoms.

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

1 year

The big news for today is that my #Bitcoin Sell-side Risk Ratio got featured on Glassnode 😉 You can access it via workbench under 'Market indicators' tab. Btw, check out how precisely it called the $16k bottom of this cycle.

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

1 year

The majority of #Bitcoin on-chain analysts tend to look at oversold/overbought levels horizontally, which in my view is a serious mistake. Quick explanatory thread 🧵

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

1 year

#Bitcoin halving is about a year away.

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

3 years

On the last note - adjusting Mayer Multiple to diminishing range was something @woonomic himself proposed on his website. I decided to do it and I think that the results are promising. Adjusted Mayer Multiple historically signalled tops and bottoms with decent accuracy 🎯 🧵5/5

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Some folks asked me for an update on $LTC Although Glassnode doesn't have data for lth/sth on litecoin, we can for instance look at the MVRV ratio. MVRV is currently at the levels that were historically signaling great buying opportunities.

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Altcoin Season Index is a tool that looks at the relative performance of altcoins vs #Bitcoin The more altcoins are outperforming $BTC, the higher the score. Currently, Altcoin Season Index is at 94. It essentially tells us that right now most altcoins are overpriced.

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

1 year

Just finished my dashboard with #Bitcoin cyclical metrics. All of the best $BTC metrics grouped in one place. The dashboard also includes my #Bitcoin Adjusted MVRV Ratio.

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Seems like #Bitcoin Rainbow just got rekt.

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

It's really interesting that #Bitcoin Illiquid Divergence can call short/mid/long term tops and bottoms. It is the result of using very responsive 90 Daily Moving Average. Therefore it is not only able to catch those big macro moves but also the short term ones 🧵7/8

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

3 years

MVRV Z-Score - it is the ratio of Market Value (Market Cap) to Realized Value (Realized Cap). Put simply, Realized Cap shows how much money was poured into Bitcoin. When Market Cap increases faster than Realized Cap it implies that the market is getting overheated 🎯2/11

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

And yes, I'm fully aware that I didn't highlight one bottom and three tops. The metric was less precise on that calls but it still turned out to be useful. Back then, the divergences were at extreme levels as you can see 🧵6/8

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

The inspiration for this metric was an observation made by @hansthered regarding how the median value of coin days destroyed approaches #Bitcoin price when we are having tops. 🧵2/7

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Are there any whole coiners among my followers? 😉

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

What was the biggest mistake you have made in crypto? Mine: Early in my crypto learning journey I came across @MMCrypto on Youtube and was watching most of his videos for 3 months. Back then, I couldn't resist clicking on videos because of clickbaits. I've wasted so much time.

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Welcome to the next release of your weekly quantitative edge in the #Bitcoin market. As on every Monday, we are going to look at the lite version of the #Bitcoin Aggregate Risk Model. 1/🧵

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

3 years

I’m thinking about making #Bitcoin Aggregate Risk publicly available for everyone, by uploading live chart on the website. What y’all think? 👀

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

5 months

This line is really good. “Don’t sell when the normies start asking about crypto, sell when they’re telling you about it” h/t @flipjpeg

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

4 months

From a macro PoV #Bitcoin still has room to grow. Macro top still isn't in. Relax and enjoy the ride 🤠

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

As of now, we have the ATH of Futures Open Interest / #Bitcoin Market Cap Historically, high values were indicating either short or long squeezes. Be prepared for volatility.

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Today I made some changes to my #Litecoin Aggregate Risk model. I adjusted MVRV and Reserve Risk for diminishing range. Currently Risk Score sits at 4.05 🧵1/2

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

That's how 55406 data points packed into one chart looks like 👀

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

21 days

Thoughts?

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

You could be thinking that we are ranging all year and things are the same as they were a year ago, but what I saw is that each time we are visiting the support level, the on-chain fundamentals which drive the long-term price action are getting stronger 🔥

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

'But the FED is raising interest rates, everything is gonna dump' Bruh? Please revisit this chart. Historically, when FED was entering a rate-rising cycle, it didn't stop the stock market from yielding positive returns.

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

3 years

I smoothed out the chart by adding 14 SMA and found huge bullish on-chain divergence ( red arrows ). You can see that historically both bearish and bullish divergneces played out fairly well ( black arrows ). I am keen to see short-term price action for #Litecoin 🎯 🧵2/2

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

3 years

Hi there! 😉 I'm very happy to see such a positive feedback on my #Bitcoin Aggregate Risk. I have big plans regarding further developement so stay tuned! Here's a little zoom-in for you. Today's Risk Score is 3.96

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

FUD aside, #Bitcoin has already faced situations like this before.

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

It's freezing today ❄️ And winter is the best time to stack #Bitcoin

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

People love to talk about #Bitcoin Death Cross. The question is - should you even bother? I backtested Death Cross/Golden Cross strategy to have a quantitative grasp of whether we should care about it or not. Check it out 👇 🧵1/5

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

1 year

#Bitcoin Mayer Multiple is currently at overbought levels. Historically speaking, such levels indicated overextension of the $BTC market.

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Welcome to your weekly quantitative edge in the #Bitcoin market. As on every Monday, we are going to look at the lite version of the #Bitcoin Aggregate Risk Model. 1/🧵

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Recently I wrote a thread about Adjusted Mayer Multiple - the metric that was meant to adjust Mayer Multiple to its' diminishing volatility. I've just upgraded my metric and would like to show you the results and the reasoning behind it 👇 🧵1/4

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

3 years

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) - this metric shows how much gains or losses are sitting on Bitcoin blockchain unrealized. The more unrealized profits = the bigger temptation to sell some Bitcoins to book those profits 🎯3/11

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

3 years

The summary is short and simple: - I wouldn't buy based on the index - I wouldn't sell based on the index - I don't get the hype around it. 🧵8/8

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

1 year

Typical early phase of #Bitcoin bull run.

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Bet accordingly folks.

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

If you want to follow somebody, my advice would be to follow the moves of long-term holders rather than overrated 'whales'. Long-term holders are the real smart money players you should pay attention to 👀 🧵11/11

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

I’ve just accidentally found out that @Cointelegraph featured my last tweet - wow 😂

BTC price faces crucial trend battle as Bitcoin RSI confirms breakout

BTC price action lines up a trend breakout after RSI ends its two-month losing streak.

cointelegraph.com

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Recently I openly criticized @AurelienOhayon . Today I've checked his profile more carefully and while I still think that oftentimes he is overly bullish, I must admit he has some solid findings. For instance, this is very interesting.

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@AurelienOhayon

2 years

#BITCOIN THE 4TH GREAT HISTORICAL CYCLE BEGINS. Indicator : The Monthly Percent Bandwidth (%B). The Halving Cycle Theory is dead. #BTC #Crypto

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Mikołaj Zakrzowski

@StackSmartly

2 years

Welcome to your weekly quantitative edge in the #Bitcoin market. As on every Monday, we are going to look at the lite version of the #Bitcoin Aggregate Risk Model. 1/🧵

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