Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar @SriKGlobal Twitter profile

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

#FOMC minutes suggest hiking rates "sooner or at a faster pace". Does that mean voting members have already sold out tech stocks from their personal portfolios? #FederalReserve

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

2 years

Most grateful to the United States of America where I arrived as a student 50 years ago today. Very appreciative of all the opportunities the country gave me! A grateful citizen.

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

Did you see the UST 10yr yield?! Crashed from 1.11% to 1.03% in the past few minutes. My 1% target may be achieved even earlier than I had expected!!

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

Can @federalreserve publish daily reports of #Clarida buys & sells for personal portfolio between now and Jan 31 when he leaves #FOMC ? Especially important to know trades he makes after Jan 25-26 mtg. Will give investors more info than #Fed dot plot ever will 🤣 Thank you!

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

What is even more impressive than UST 10yr yield dropping to a mere 82bp? UST 30yr dropping ~10bp past few hours to 1.43%. My view was thought to be outlandish when I forecast 30yr to fall to 1.50% 🙄

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

Surging home prices were ignored from policy perspective in 2005 - 2007. Then 2008 happened 😢

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

I found most interesting #Powell 's response to question about inflation. Calming fears of "Taper Tantrum," he said it will take time to raise #inflation . 11 years of QE not enough to show Chairman it just increases income inequality, not inflation?! @federalreserve

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

No surprise on #FOMC decision to maintain near-zero rates thru 2023. It is doing what it does best -- boost speculation in risk assets with little benefit to real economy. Economy is supposedly @federalreserve objective, not helping #equity investors 😒

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

I am so relieved @federalreserve cut rates. That will stop #coronavirus on its tracks. If #Fed cuts 50bp to zero on 3/18, virus will totally disappear! And if #ECB #BoJ join in easing, that will prevent any future virus crisis from ever developing 😇 @BeckyQuick @SquawkCNBC

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

MBS purchases by @federalreserve do NOT push up home prices. Got that? How do we know? Because #Powell just said so at his press conf. No other confirmation or evidence necessary 🤓

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

We were under wrong belief that @federalreserve mandates are #inflation #jobs . New revelation: #Fed members' individual equity holdings & trades hold even higher priority! Why not write that explicitly into the #Fed mandate? #kaplan #rosengren 😩

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

6 months

#Powell tells @ScottPelley on @60Minutes there could be more bank failures due to #CRE situation but will be “manageable”. Just as Bernanke said July 2007 that subprime just a $50 - 100B issue? @federalreserve

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

20-city #CaseShiller home price index up 17% YoY in May, fastest since August 2004. Waiting to see how #Powell justifies continued $40B monthly MBS purchases at his press conf. May be worsening income disparity is a @federalreserve objective? 🤣 (1/2)

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

Have you noticed how the 12 voting #fomc members are unanimous most of the time? Why do taxpayers pay for all of them when one of them (+ computer) will suffice? (2 / 2)

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

8 years

#IMF estimates world debt at $152T = 225% of Gross World Product. 50% debt / GDP was considered safe max when I started my career 😳😤

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

Steepening UST yield curve requires @federalreserve to (1) increase residents’ #inflation expectations and / or (2) have residents become more optimistic on future economic growth. Neither is happening 😢 #JacksonHole (2 / 2)

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

2008 #GFC showed that when you take undue risk, profits are all yours while losses will be borne by the taxpayers. Fast-forward more than a decade. Hey, still no lesson learned! (2 / 3)

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

2 years

Untold story from today's #Biden plan of $10k in #studentloanforgiveness for those earning < $125k: "If you have been diligent student / parent who was careful & didn't take on debt, too bad! Next time, spend carefree & expect govt to bail you out."

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

By slashing rates by full 100bp, @federalreserve did not just cave in to equity investors’ demands, it exhibited panic. This is why rate cut and the just-introduced QE5 failed to calm markets, instead led futures to plunge.

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

I have previously discussed in SriKonomics that #Rent is likely to become a major component of higher inflation. Breaking News says, as widely expected, Supreme Court has rejected extension of tenant eviction ban. Expect rent uptick over coming months

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

Signs investors should watch for in ongoing correction. 1. Follow UST Treasury bond mkt, NOT equities that were poor predictors of 2001 & 2007 #recessions . 2. Look for UST 10yr to approach 1%, 30yr to get near 1.5

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

Were you waiting for UST 10yr to hit 1.50% threshold? We are already there. Sticking to my next target of 1.75%, waiting for @federalreserve to further distort market by introducing YCC. Sadly, YCC can only stop the upward march temporarily

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

5 years

#FederalReserve assets approach $4T again, up from $3.76T at the start of September. Did I miss an announcement of QE4? Oh, no, it is just Fed adding liquidity in response to #repo crisis; aka Quantitative Easing By Stealth 😜

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

5 years

After calling 7/31 rate cut as just a "midcycle adjustment," #Powell may be getting ready to cut on 10/30 for 3rd meeting in a row. What did you expect, consistency in #Fed policy?! 😔

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

Real yield on UST 10yr fell to -1% at end of day. Implications: 1) Surge in risk aversion, willing to accept such negative real return from UST; (2) does not bode well for risk assets

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

Economists at @federalreserve who missed the leap in #inflation this yr — even tho you had me tweeting higher forecasts repeatedly since early 2021 — now expect inflation < 2% in 2022 with rise being “transitory”. May be they think job security is more important than accuracy 😂

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

US repeating error of post-2008 policy — “Bail out companies & push up stock market, no problem if wages hardly rise!” Labor Secy. #Scalia suggests no extension of $600 unemployment benefit. It’s ok for companies to get more grants and loans, forget the 11.1% unemployment rate!

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

Pres #Biden said last wk #Manchin still supports spending framework, will work for $2T bill. Today, Manchin tells @FoxNewsSunday those not his words, will NOT support bill. He, rather than @federalreserve or @USTreasury , has to protect us from surging #inflation !

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

UST 10yr closes at 59.7bp, just few bp over 2020 closing low of 54.1 bp (March 9). Look for the low to be breached during the coming months!

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

Watch Nov 3 #powell press conf to see if he repeats “transitory” despite PCE deflator, fav gauge of @federalreserve , rising 4.4% YoY, fastest since 1991. If he does, we know we have a broken record for #Fed Chair, not a human being 😂 (1 / 2)

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

5 years

UST 3month/10yr inverted on Feb 10 for 3rd time in year. No recession risk in sight, you said?! 🙄

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

Now that we are at a new record close of 0.5282% yield on UST 10yr, what is next stop? To pierce through intra-day record low of 39bp set on March 9. As I have said in past tweet, once decline begins, expect it to increase speed in coming days @SaraEisen @JoeSquawk

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

5 years

#FederalReserve B/S surges from < $3.8 trillion early September to ~$4 trillion today -- faster than was the case in QE1, QE2, or QE3. #Powell says at @business_econ says that it will rise further. However, just don't call it QE, please! Don't like that term?! (1/2)

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

#Powell speech confirms expectation in my tweet 2 days ago -- "inflation targeting" will not succeed in targeting inflation but will push up asset prices, do little to help economic growth or #employment . "Take more and more unwarranted risk folks, #Fed will backstop you! "

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 months

#FOMC reduces monthly QT in Treasurys from current $60B to $25B. Wow, much bigger slowing than I had anticipated! @federalreserve must be really afraid of a repeat of Sept 2019 money market crisis #Powell

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

5 months

More analysts concurring w my long-held view that no rate cut needed. If anything, have to HIKE rates to kill #inflation . Not enuf for #Powell to shed tears at start of every presser about pain to households from high #prices . Will @federalreserve heed advice? Unlikely!

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

So much for V-shaped recovery pushing UST 10yr over 1%. It’s currently at 78bp, BELOW where it was Friday when misplaced euphoria over #nfp gave bond bears one more chance to lose money again!

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

It happened! We have a new closing low for the US #Treasury 10-year yield today --53.47bp compared with the previous closing low of 54.09bp on March 9. And I don't think the rally is done yet! March on👍

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

5 years

2 reasons why #Fed erred in thinking #PhillipsCurve is dead: (1) Participation rate is below pre-recession highs despite 10 years of "recovery"; (2) Those holding multiple jobs hit record 8.2 million workers in June, suggesting no single job providing decent wage (2/2) #Powell

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

#Canada 's #Trudeau will not attend celebration this week in DC of start of #USMCA (aka NAFTA-2). "Scheduling conflicts" preclude visit! Why attend when US is still threatening tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum?

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

US economy showed weakness even before #coronavirus hit. Real average weekly earnings of US workers (YoY % change) barely budged in 2019

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

5 years

#Powell says he is "examining strategies" to reach the #Fed 's 2% inflation target. Obviously, 11 years of failure to get to the 2% is not sufficient time 🤣

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

Stocks are sinking. Is @federalreserve watching? Time to start buying equities, #fed , announce a new $1 Trillion purchase program!! Start with travel, energy stocks. I will then give you advice on other sectors to look at.

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

2 years

Anti-inflation plan: (1) Write off $10,000 student debt; (2) as Nov elections get close, announce that raising ceiling to $50,000 being considered; (3) as #inflation picks up due to extra spending, blame Putin; (4) announce Inflation Reduction Plan - II involving more spending

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

Today would be a great day for @federalreserve to start buying US equities. If someone there will reach out to me, I can give them a list of stocks to buy 🤣. After all, if we want to end capitalism and start a Soviet Union of American States #SUAS , better start now.

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

2 years

Have you noticed @federalreserve yet to publish results of investigation of senior officials’ trading even as they made policy decisions for country? We found out about #Rosengren #Kaplan & #Clarida 9 months ago!! Must be a very deep investigation or, top secret 🤣 #Powell

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

Why are UST 10Yr, 30yr yields falling? (1) Virus incidences rising; (2) #Mnuchin to end some lending programs w @federalreserve ; (3) #California (15% of US GDP) to start night lockdown; (4) #Fed likely to accelerate bond buys mid-Dec. Were you looking for V-shaped recovery?🙄

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

9 years

#oil market turning economic theory on its head - - lower prices generate MORE supply leading to downward price spiral!

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

7 years

I keep hearing analysts repeatedly attribute market correction to fear of several #Fed hikes following "big wage increase" in January. Obviously they don't know that total wages workers took home was LESS in Jan than in Dec! Inflationary?? 🙄

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

#WallStreet has had worst week since March 2020. Where is #Powell and when can we expect his famous pivot? After all, supporting stock market rather than #inflation or #employment has been main objective of this @federalreserve

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

Concerned about May #inflation numbers? You haven't seen anything yet! Especially concerning: acceleration every month since Jan; high food-at-home inf; core inf higher than expected (1 / 2)

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

This senior @federalreserve employee made 566 separate trades on personal account during 2020, @michaelsderby points out!! Did he have any time left to work on monetary policy for which we taxpayers pay his salary?

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

How to justify @federalreserve still buying $35 Billion MBS monthly despite sky-rocketing home prices? May be #Fed voting members own a lot of housing stocks in their indexed portfolios? (2 / 2)

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

5 years

In saying #Fed buying T-bills to ease repo crunch does not constitute QE, #Powell is confusing effect on bond prices with impact on economy! Anything that increases money supply thru purchase of securities is QE, Mr. Chairman! @business_econ @federalreserve

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

Watch the UST 10yr go! Down another 8bp, yielding just 83bp. Quick end to #coronavirus crisis, you said?

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

5 years

#Powell says #Fed members expect #inflation to rise more slowly toward target than they had expected. We have waited in vain for 10 years for their forecast of 2% inflation to come true. How long is the new wait -- another 20 years?! 😳

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

Equities falling for 3rd day in a row. Still awaiting @federalreserve announcement that they have instituted a new program to buy S&P 500 index 😜

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

2 years

Week after admitting she missed #inflation surge, #Yellen denies she urged #Biden to reduce stimulus last year. Wow, she is essentially admitting she piled one error on top of another. Sadly for voters, eco in her & #Powell ’s hands next few years @USTreasury @federalreserve

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

6 years

UST 2-10 yield spread at 49.45bp. It was last this low on September 18, 2007 - - equities were booming then even as the Great Recession set in December 2007. Did you say the #Fed will hike four times in 2018? #Powell

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

What is most significant about today's #inflation numbers? Not just the 4.2% yoy increase in overall #CPI in April, fastest since 2008; even more important = core inflation rate (excluding food & energy) 0.9% mom, fastest since April 1982

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

5 years

After calling rate cut "mid-cycle adjustment" rather than start of sequence, #Powell suggests more than 1 cut possible. Wow, this time he didn't even wait 2 weeks to pivot as in Dec - Jan. Shift in stance all in same press conference? 🙄 What prompted it, equities' plunge?

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

Headline, core #CPI stayed high in July. Will probably do little to shift @federalreserve from its “transitory” message. Why let facts stay in the way of the oft-repeated mantra? 😂

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

8 years

#Fed members need to spend less time traveling around world making speeches. Instead, understand that global economy is slowing sharply!

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

5 years

#Trump announces 10% tariff effective Sept 1 on remaining $300B imports from #China so all imports now subject to #tariffs . #Powell cited #tradewar as reason for rate cut. With situation worse now, he can justify cutting again. Did you know #Fed is an independent entity?! 🙄

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

#NASDAQ100 down 3.5% this morning, falling for 3rd day in a row. Somebody, please call #powell on the hotline. @federalreserve urgently needs to set up scheme to buy tech stocks, support investors as it has done with other asset classes!

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

#Evergrande developments should be seen as signaling higher #China COUNTRY risk, not mere bottom-up company risk. Put differently, global investors need to adopt very different approach toward China investments

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

Nice place to make extra cash if you work for government -- go to @federalreserve and do personal trades! Great story by @michaelsderby about individual trades by #Fed employees in Feb & March 2020 as big stimulus was being planned

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

5 years

Yes, $dollar has been weak, but neither #Fed rate cuts nor #Trump tweets can keep currency down for long. Also, 1.5% UST 10yr ahead. My article for @bopinion Many thanks to @BobOnMarkets , my editor

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

UST 10yr goes over 1.77%, highest in 14 months. Heading toward my 2% target

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

@DiMartinoBooth Spot on! Then, rising income inequality prompts further govt spending to try to rectify, a pliant @federalreserve provides the money, pushes home prices up even more. It’s a vicious circle. Then, the bubble bursts —> disparity worsens!

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

@DiMartinoBooth Great point! Bernanke also claimed QE was temporary when he introduced it at year-end 2008 !

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

UST yield down when @federalreserve cut bond purchases on Friday! Counterintuitive? Bond yields are a function of two factors -- inflationary expectations & expected real economic growth. Both of them are low & headed down. So UST yield also likely to go down further! (2/2)

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

2 years

#Yellen admits #inflation to stay high rest of year. Returning to being politician, says reasons are global, not local. $1.9T stimulus you participated in + your support for #Powell reckless B/S expansion had nothing to do with it, Madame Secretary? @USTreasury @federalreserve

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

Why did equities fall? One word: FUNDAMENTALS. Secondary #COVID wave I have been discussing as likely finally became evident in #Florida #Texas . #California at cusp of such a wave as well. Unless UST or @federalreserve announces new stimulus, expect fundamentals to rule!

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all. May 2021 be the beginning of a covid-free Prosperous New Year!

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

Having the cake and eat it too? @federalreserve upgrades growth forecast for 2021, raises inflation expectation, and yet suggests no rate hike thru at least 2023. It just doesn't figure! #Powell

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

5 years

It took 1 word for equities to drop - "transitory" - in #Powell 's reference to low inflation. Having missed #inflation target consistently for 10 years through 3 #Fed chairs, it must have taken a lot of courage to say that the present 1.6% inflation is transitory 😁

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

2 years

March #retail sales rise of 0.5% looks good until you break data down to look at #Sales excluding gasoline. That measure FELL 0.3%

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

#Powell admits error in believing “transitory” inflation, expects it for longer. Gets ready to make 2nd error — saying its time to taper, not hike rates. When he does increase, he’ll surely admit he should have hiked earlier 🤣

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

Initial #jobless claims up again, missing forecast for a decline. This an indicator of deepening #recession . Monetary & fiscal policy are close to exhaustion & will put pressure on #Biden administration to use #StructuralAdjustments to narrow skill mismatch in labor mkt

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

#powell begs for more fiscal stimulus to help economy. On same day, #Trump orders team to stop negotiating w #Pelosi et al on stimulus. #Equities plunge, UST rallies, UST yield curve flattens. If you have followed my tweets, none of this should come as a surprise 😳

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

5 years

I have said for while that @federalreserve to cut rates up to 3 times in 2020 Vs. #Powell statement 12/2019 of standing pat. My forecast, rather than Powell’s, seems likely 🤓. Risk to my forecast? Even sharper rate cuts, start of QE5 (QE4 already started 9/2019)

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

Better alternative? @MikeBloomberg 's 2012 proposal as NYC Mayor that foreign engineering & science students in US be given green card along with degree at convocation! (2 / 2)

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

9 years

#Dijsselbloem says even if referendum passes, tough to trust #Tsipras to implement program. Would he like to pick next #Greece PM? #Grexit

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

1 year

Rescue of financial system from ongoing #panic ? It will be led by #Yellen & #Powell whose policies in 2021 & 2022 contributed to the current crisis. We should feel very reassured! @federalreserve @USTreasury

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

As markets plunge, equity investors again looking to @federalreserve to bail them out. Having already done this for corporate bonds, its time for #Fed step in to backstop falling equities by introducing program to buy S&P 500 index 🤣 (1 /2)

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

Amidst just-initiated #QEInfinity , who was left behind? Low-wage earners and retired individuals who depend on bank interest income rather than financial markets😩. @federalreserve has reduced them to earning zero from savings (1/2)

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

#Fed suggests it "will act as appropriate" in response to #coronavirus . Really?! Is Dr. Jerome #Powell now a virus specialist who has found a cure for the contagion?

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

#Kaplan & #Rosengren , who benefited immensely from #Fed positions by trading intensely in stocks & #REIT , are still on @federalreserve , will hold some of their positions, & express unbiased opinions at Sept 21 - 22 #fomc mtg. Enjoy!

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

If you are short US equities, #Powell is your best friend. You should wish that he holds press conferences every week! @federalreserve 😳

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

Yet another record low on the UST 10yr — 0.5216% at 8:54am ET according to Bloomberg. If no deal is reached on #jobless benefit extension by #Senate recess on Friday, expect yield to plunge below 0.5% in a hurry.

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

5 years

#Dollar index #DXY hits 98.84, high for 2020. So much for those who expected currency weakness this year — in risk aversion, strong dollar and lower UST yields go together!

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

It may seem simple but worth repeating: Tapering is not tightening which would require end to QE accompanied by hike in rates. That won't happen yet b/c @federalreserve focused on its unstated objective -- supporting stock market

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

#Powell chances of renomination dive following news #Fed Inspector General office to examine officials' securities trading -- including Powell ownership of munis as @federalreserve started buying muni funds in 3/2020. How can #Biden nominate Chmn under investigation?!

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

5 years

Why is UST yield dropping even as US #equities rise? New #QE , now QE4, providing liquidity since mid-Sept. Not necessary for #Fed to buy bonds, buying short-dated paper to provide “ #repo support,” enough to boost equities & bonds. Missing: @federalreserve admission of impact

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

6 years

I tweeted after #BondPanic last month that Jan #wages did NOT suggest a pick up in #inflation . Last Fri showed wages remain restrained. Today's tame inflation number is another signal that those expecting inflation surge have a long wait ahead. Good for #UST !

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

4 years

Why #bondbears will be wrong again in 2021 — more powerful #covid waves in US, #Europe , #Japan will mean Global Recession continues. Expect @IMFNews @WorldBank to lower forecasts for next year

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

Great question by @SullyCNBC on @SquawkCNBC : Are market professionals missing risk in markets b/c they are under 45 and have not seen a lot of #inflation as adults? Well said!

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

If #Powell no longer believes his own “transitory” mantra, what’s justification for not hiking rates next Wed — that it would kill his chances for renomination?! @federalreserve (2 / 2)

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Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

@SriKGlobal

3 years

#Forward guidance doesn't mean much with this @federalreserve . #Powell dropped his long-held "transitory" stance on #inflation after he was renominated. Expect press conference if markets continue to correct, to explain why faster taper or rate hikes not needed 🤣

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