This is bullshit fakery that is easy to spot as bullshit fakery if you know a little bit about statistics, but many people will not - and that's exactly what liars and charlatans like
@montie
rely on.
I'll briefly explain the trick here. 1/?
“According to ONS data cumulative deaths for w/e April 10th (184,960) are lower than cumulative deaths at same point in 2018 (187,720).” h/t
@BrooksNewmark
Addendum: According to official numbers, coronavirus deaths in the UK only crossed 100 in w/c March 16 (the 12th week) and crossed 1000 March 28 (end of 13th week). Now at >16,500.
If you include Jan-Feb in your cumulative comparison you're either a fool or malicious.
So if you're a bullshit RW death merchant with an agenda like
@montie
you:
- pick a 15-week timeframe that includes most winter flu cases but only ~3 weeks of Covid
- look at cumulative numbers to hide Covid deaths in the noise
- cherry pick bad winter flu year to compare to
8/
And voila! Now you have a statistic that can apparently support your contrarian simplistic "we're overreacting" hot take. If your audience are as stupid as you think they are, of course. /end
Why do this? Because if your agenda is to minimise the impact of Covid-19 on deaths, then it makes sense to hide the real death toll in with a whole lot of other deaths.
By the way, coronavirus has only killed a tiny fraction of the people who have died in the last decade ... 4/
Oh yeah, did you notice the comparison mentions quite a specific year? Why pick 2018 in particular, and not the average yearly number?
Because 2018 was a very bad year for winter flu, 3x more people died of flu in 2017-2018 than the year before. 6/
“According to ONS data cumulative deaths for w/e April 10th (184,960) are lower than cumulative deaths at same point in 2018 (187,720).” h/t
@BrooksNewmark
The starting point is simple. Notice how
@montie
says "cumulative" deaths to week end Apr 20th.
That's right: choose a long baseline that includes many weeks where nobody was dying of Covid in the UK (first death was in early March) and add them in as well for no reason. 3/
First of all, here's a graph from the
@ONS
- do you see the massive, unprecedented spike in deaths due to Covid-19? Of course you do.
So how do we square this with
@montie
's tweet saying deaths are actually lower this year than 2018? 2/
And if you compare them to all the deaths this century, the 15,000+ who have died in the UK in the last few weeks are just the tiniest little blip, so why not use that statistic, huh?
But wait, there's another level to the deception still. 5/
Winter flu was not so bad in 2019-20. So yes, fewer people died this year in January and February than in 2018 - that's the other thing, most people die of winter flu *in the winter*. 7/
I've lived in this city for 6.5 years, but in my new house here for <6 months. Last night I discovered if I cycle home from work while thinking about a physics problem, muscle memory still takes me straight back to my old place.
This is bullshit fakery that is easy to spot as bullshit fakery if you know a little bit about statistics, but many people will not - and that's exactly what liars and charlatans like
@montie
rely on.
I'll briefly explain the trick here. 1/?
@ChrisHullensian
@EdConwaySky
Oh ok, I get it. Based on your extensive experience of registering deaths and collecting national-level data from your armchair, plus your knowledge of epidemiology, you know that the official statistics from lots of countries must be wrong. Right.
@robertsbking
@d_spiegel
First derivative of a cumulative curve is the number of daily deaths. Second derivative is the rate of increase in daily deaths, third derivative tells us whether that rate is slowing or not.
A new measure of how fast the Universe was expanding 11 billion years ago, at a redshift of 2.3 – and that gives a Hubble constant H_0=63.2+/-2.5 km/s/Mpc!
2 new papers this week, led by
@AndreiCuceu
of
@OSUAstro
@ElbaDragon
@legsidelizzy
@MarinaHyde
I know this is not the point, but actually even reading it as a man I felt the same, because it is very well written. Not an easy thing to convey the emotion so well.
@AlbertoNardelli
@OwenJones84
As someone on the left, you should regard Merkel as an honourable opponent, one with whom you might disagree about the means to achieve justice in society, but not about the end goals themselves.
@AlbertoNardelli
@OwenJones84
Angela Merkel is the conservative politician other countries should wish they had. Principled, honest, and basically on the side of good rather than in it for herself – contrast her with the venal, corrupt and fundamentally evil right-wing in many other places.
Paper day: "Testing low-redshift cosmic acceleration with large scale structure", with colleagues from
@UoPCosmology
,
@UWaterloo
and
@astrofysikk
. We combine measurement of the void-galaxy correlation with the latest BAO data to study dark energy much more precisely.
☕️ Good morning on
#LaunchDay
for
#ESAEuclid
! 🕵️♂️
📺 Tune in to
#ESAWebTV
starting 16:30 CEST 👇
📌Expected key moments:
🚀 17:12 Lift off
🛰️ 17:53 Separation
📡 17:57 Earliest time to acquire Euclid’s signal
Got questions?
#askESA
I'm sorry to be responding to this person twice in 2 days - after years of successfully ignoring her, as I recommend you do too - but this is just an extraordinary level of rubbish
@dahankzter
The standard model works fine and satisfactorily explain all available the data. Adding unnecessary bits to it and then looking for them makes no scientific sense. at the very least, it's a bad strategy. Theories shouldn't be amended unless it's *necessary* for some reason.
I've been reviewing PhD applications all day, and it's fascinating to read the kinds of random things people put on their CVs sometimes. "I had tickets for <sporting event> in 2019" or "I have a collection of 123 different beer bottles" (both are 100% real things I saw today).
I'm reading White Mughals by
@DalrympleWill
- excellent book, been meaning to read it for ages - from which I learn that in India circa 1800, potatoes were only eaten in Presidency towns (Calcutta, Madras, Bombay)!
Astounding when you think of any Indian cuisine today.
@DehennaDavison
Starmer is not making this broadcast as Leader of the Labour Party either. He's addressing the nation as the Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition.
@ProfKarolSikora
(At least 34,000 confirmed COVID deaths in the UK) ÷ (1 in 10,000 fatality rate) = 340 million people infected
Population of the UK = 66 million 🤔
I don't think anyone should be listening to her, or you. 💩
A little personal news: today is officially my first day as an
@STFC_Matters
Rutherford fellow at
@UCL
. I've greatly enjoyed the years I spent
@UoPCosmology
but I'm also excited about the new opportunities and working with new colleagues!
I have a few new followers today. Welcome all.
Contrary to impressions, I don't normally swear in my tweets. Apart from occasional tweets about basic statistics, I also talk about astronomy and cosmology. Which may be your kind of thing, who knows?
Paper day: Did you see the
@eBOSSurvey
results and think “Nice, but I wish they had even more data”? Then this is for you.
We show how to effectively quadruple the data volume of the LRG survey for free – no new observations! – using info from voids.
@robfordmancs
What I'm getting from this thread is that the context still doesn't make Powell look any less of a horrible racist, but that Wilson and Callaghan were cowards on the issue and Heath was brave. Fair?
@NixCR1
@EdConwaySky
@piersmorgan
How do you know that isn't exactly what the "mortality measure" shown here does? This is not the raw number of deaths.
New paper today, led by Slađana Radinović, forecasting the cosmological constraints we will be able to achieve using cosmic voids in the Euclid survey. Cool results, and also Sladja's first first-author paper!
My wife and I have been having a conversation about the appropriate level of extravagance for a 4-year-old's birthday celebrations, and she's just informed me that one child "had a live unicorn at his party" 2 weeks ago 🤔🤔🤔
This makes precisely zero sense, and any 'journalist' uncritically repeating it should be ashamed.
The more you delay imposing the lockdown, the longer the lockdown needs to be in place, once you have accepted the inevitable. Achieving exactly the opposite of the claimed goal...
@AtlanticFyoo
@KeithSwinburne
@VeraTensTXL
@ChrisGiles_
Because average of 5 years removes most anomalies quite well, and adjusting for population changes (not just growth, also change to age profile) over 25 years would be hard and another layer of uncertainty.
@Trippertrasher
@ChrisHullensian
@EdConwaySky
Italy's hospital death rate has been decreasing since March 28th, Spain has been decreasing since April 2nd. Yesterday's numbers were lower in both Italy and Spain than the UK.
Other than that, sure, their "continued daily death rate". Who cares about numbers or facts anyway?
@mrianleslie
@tomowolade
It's bollocks. The offence - as has been pointed out many times - is not given in asking where someone is from, but in repeating the question several times because you don't accept the answer they give.
Very sad to hear this. I never had the chance to meet him or hear him talk in person, but reading his book The First Three Minutes as a teenager is probably the main reason I became a cosmologist.
Steven Weinberg, the 1979 Nobel laureate for physics, died today. A delightful companion who loved theater, he could recite the poetry of Gerard Manley Hopkins by heart, and wrote profoundly about the mysteries of creation. He loved life and left it reluctantly. He’ll be missed.
@UoPCosmology
@UWaterloo
@astrofysikk
Turns out, the BAO+voids data from redshifts z<2 gives H0=72.3+-1.9 – favouring Riess over Planck.
Adding Lyman-alpha BAO from z>2 pulls it back to H0=69+-1.2 – favouring Planck over Riess.
One thing to say about this is that it's relevant to all those papers with press releases going "we did the supernova analysis in some different way, dark energy now doesn't exist"
@UoPCosmology
@UWaterloo
@astrofysikk
Next, dark energy. BAO + voids gives >10sigma evidence for Lambda, completely independent of the CMB or SNIa (and much higher precision than SNIa).
Compare today's plot with the same one from 10 years ago to see how things have moved!
4 adults in our house on Zoom calls this morning:
- 1 designing surveys of agricultural practices in rural India
- 1 running electric car conversion business
- 1 teaching Ancient Greek
- and 1 observing for
@desisurvey
using a telescope in Arizona
Must be some kind of record.
@anandMenon1
No self-respecting Leaver would use the queue marked 'EU citizens' after Jan 31, would they? And I see no reason to persuade them otherwise ...
#MNRAS
will be switching from green OA to gold OA next year. Subscription costs will disappear, but authors will now have to pay an article processing charge of £2310 for each paper (RAS members get a 20% discount, authors in developing countries get a waiver).
The latest news on this from within Euclid is that the launch will now take place on an Ariane 6 instead. This will cause a considerable delay to the launch schedule; but it is not yet known how much.
This looks bad for those of us working on Euclid (telescope supposed to launch on a Soyuz next year), but hey, there are more important concerns in the world right now.
I'm enjoying reading Douglas Scott's Skeptic's Guide to the Standard Model of Cosmology on the arXiv today ().
From it I learned that the Earth forms at redshift z=0.42 - which "could be used to suggest a link with Douglas Adams' universal answer" 😁
@Noahpinion
@adoseofjohn
Accuracy. GPT produces a load completely imaginary nonsense about 1 to 5% of the time, and you probably won't know which 1 to 5% is false.
Paper day: "The Gravitational Lensing Signatures of BOSS Voids in the Cosmic Microwave Background", –
with Srini Raghunathan, Blake Sherwin and Nathan Whitehorn, we measure gravitational lensing by the *absence* of matter!
@MrTCHarris
I didn't say that, where did you get that from?
Decisions about our public spending aren't constrained by the EU but they are constrained by actually having money to spend. If we bankrupt much of the country we can't afford to do things we may want to.
Journalist's comments on astrophysics even more nonsensical than his comments on politics shock. I love how he's decided it's a Cornell analysis just because the paper is on the arXiv!
Quick tip for all scientists: don't write shit like this in your paper.
Even if - actually, especially if - you're sure you're right and the other team are wrong.
It's a paper, not Twitter. Just no.
"We ultimately conclude that this detection of PH3 in the atmosphere of Venus is incorrect and invite the Greaves et al. team to revise their work and consider a correction or retraction of their original report."
My dad's response to AZ side effects is very Monty Python: "That's nothing! When I was young I had a diphtheria shot and couldn't even raise my arm to dress myself for DAYS! You kids don't even know what smallpox vaccination is any more!"
After years of living in a rented flat today I'm sitting in the garden in the sunshine, with a beer and TMS on the radio, with the kids playing around me, and you know, this does justify the hundreds of thousands of pounds of mortgage debt ...
@UoPCosmology
@UWaterloo
@astrofysikk
Next, dark energy. BAO + voids gives >10sigma evidence for Lambda, completely independent of the CMB or SNIa (and much higher precision than SNIa).
Compare today's plot with the same one from 10 years ago to see how things have moved!
So
@XENONexperiment
results announced at 4 pm 17 June.
First 🚑 chasing theory paperv explaining the results submitted at 17:56 on 17 June:
Particle theory must be a very easy subject.
New paper day!
In which we show how you can take the best BAO measurements from
@sdssurveys
BOSS data, and improve them by a factor of 2 by adding information from voids.
@Find_The_River
@montie
I think anger is justified. I have seen many people engage with the likes of Montie and Toby Young in good faith and explain their errors politely. It makes no difference - they continue repeating them. Because these are not innocent errors, they're deliberate and malicious.
@NAChristakis
The Op-Ed contained factually inaccurate quotes from the US constitution (deployed in service of a morally bankrupt argument). Checking that kind of thing is what an editor's job is, so it doesn't seem he was very good at being an editor?
This, by Fintan O'Toole, is an accurate and concise summary of the logic of the situation. This logic has been apparent to the non-deluded since before the referendum, it hasn't changed.
This doesn't really feel like the time for physics, but in case you are interested, our paper on direct measurements of dark energy was just published as an editors' suggestion in PRL.
A new analysis of galaxy-void correlations and baryon acoustic oscillations finds direct evidence of late-time acceleration due to dark energy, independent of the cosmic microwave background and supernovae
I got given this beautiful (though hard to photograph) little astronomical gift yesterday showing the solar corona. Looking through the accompanying notes, I see it was made by
@AstroMikeMerri
!
Remembering that it was a year ago today that I was having big arguments on Twitter with people who thought the UK approach of not locking down early in response to Covid was the right one ...
Hard to listen to
@MattHancock
interviewed on
@BBCr4today
and conclude anything other than that the government's coronavirus strategy and message has been completely shot to bits. And he knows it.
I thought the H0 paper on the arxiv today was a little blunt, perhaps. But now I see that one of the authors whose work it was blunt about is also spouting anti-vax idiocies on Twitter and I'm a lot less bothered about the bluntness.
⬇️ THREAD ⬇️
To chart our progress and to avoid going back to square one, we are establishing a new COVID Alert System run by a new Joint Biosecurity Centre.
That COVID Alert Level will be determined primarily by R and the number of coronavirus cases.
#StayAlert
This is very sad news, Nick was truly one of the giants of cosmology. I very much enjoyed my few interactions with him, including hiking in the Spanish Pyrenees during a conference a few years ago.
There's nothing quite like the mix of emotions I feel when I've put my 5-year-old to bed, but see her wide awake and coming down the stairs ten minutes later because she wants to know whether camels are mammals, and whether any mammals lay eggs ...
My younger daughter is not yet old enough to eat a meal without throwing her food everywhere, but at least now she can shout "Accident!" and "Spilt it!" every time she does so
@ToryRebuttal
@PaulMaynardUK
I didn't realise the fact that I have a kid meant it was ok for me to break lockdown to drive to my mother's birthday party 260 miles away.
@Trippertrasher
@ChrisHullensian
@EdConwaySky
OK, a more sensible objection. The normal range in Spain could be wider if there is a lot of year-on-year variation. Also looks like there is some smoothing applied to the data.
But this doesn't affect the overall point: as of Apr 17, Spain & Italy were going down, England up.
I'd like to record for posterity that, at 3 years and 9 months old, my daughter was offered some cartoons on TV as a treat, but instead asked - ASKED - to watch David Attenborough's Blue Planet II so she could see the octopus.
Big cause for celebration at work today as we've been ranked the 6th best university in the UK for Physics. Ahead of some preeeetty well known names too ... 👀
@leonardocarella
Given that all vaccines produced in the US currently have to stay in the US, partnering with Merck might have been a completely disastrous idea.