SNE Weather by Owen @SNEWxCenter Twitter profile

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

6 months

Winter is effectively almost over out east. A few more cool days and can’t rule out the occasional snow in March and/or early April but this one is pretty much donzeo

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

7 months

If there isn’t a massive east coast snowstorm between Feb 14-17th I think it would be one of the biggest long range model fails ever

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

7 months

Not exaggerating when I say that this may be our best long range look in multiple years. This has been something that has been modeled since September (yes, September). We will know in due time if it verifies

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

2024 is going to introduce us to this revolutionary concept called WINTER!!

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

6 months

Final Call. Good riddance to this storm. Will go down as one of the biggest forecast busts of all time

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

Is that... dare I say... the beginnings of a pattern change 🧐

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

7 months

The persistence of this upcoming pattern is really something to behold. I think if you’re looking for a big time storm (blockbuster??) for the east coast watch the 2/24-2/28 time frame.

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

Epic snowstorm in Boston so far. 0.0”

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

6 months

My preferred version of the final call snow map.

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

3 years

Really no point in waiting so time to raise 'em. UPDATED snowfall map as confidence grows in what looks to be a crippling and potentially historic nor'easter for the region. 24-30" amounts widespread with locally higher amounts in banding.

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

2 years

Very rarely do you get a signal like this at an 8-9 day lead time. High amplitude pattern looks to bring a major storm to the east coast next week. A lot still TBD but looks potentially very high impact

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

7 months

Classic El Niño February

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

2 years

❄️🚨 The official 2022-2023 SNE Weather Center Winter Forecast is HERE ! Below are our overall thoughts and the graphics that accompany them. No blog post at this time but a quick thread on thinking behind this:

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

9 months

Not to beat a dead horse, but the upcoming pattern is just absolutely abysmal for multiple weeks on end. A flood of pacific air will lead to temps well above avg

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

2 years

12z European guidance is about as impressive at it gets for a winter storm signal ~12 days out. Been watching this period for a while now and it’s starting to show up on ensemble guidance…

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

What an absolutely sick pattern setting up as we enter mid month. Watch that period where the NAO breaks down for a big time east coast storm

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

4 years

Enjoy the warm weather and rain the next 24 hours.... after New Years looks ripe for a major winter storm in the East

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

Probability wise this is about as good of a signal as you will get 5-6 days away. 50-70% chance of >6" of snow in the yellow and orange areas

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

Welp, we have this to look forward to on Wednesday 😟

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

6 months

No end in sight for the Torchfest. Whole lotta warm weather incoming.

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

7 months

I see zero reason to move away from the months-long held idea that the majority of our winter weather (snow) falls in Mid Feb-Mid March. Typical for El Niño winter and really no reason to change these ideas.

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

6 months

❄️🚨 MAJOR SNOWSTORM ON THE WAY !! First Call Snow Map for Tuesday!! Likely still some changes to be made and based on what guidance looks like right now I imagine I will be adding a swath of 12"+ to this map somewhere. Coastal flooding is also a major concern as well.

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

9 months

The lack of a -EPO showing up in these projections is a *slight* pause and could cause a lack of cold air but that 500mb pattern projection for the end of the month (matches up with phases 8/1/2 of MJO) is very, very favorable for ❄️

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

At this rate we might not even have a storm to track by tomorrow. Jeez those are horrible 500mb trends

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

7 months

Contrary to what you may see posted by others, the upcoming pattern will *not* be warm. In fact, it will likely be below average 🥶

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

This is the first ensemble run that I’ve seen move the TPV into southern Canada. That could provide some very interesting implications in January 👀

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

5 months

What a snowstorm in northern New England. WOW.

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

3 months

Still no big heat in sight. In fact, quite the opposite!

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

6 months

March looking like it’ll come in like a lamb this year 🐑

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

18 days

Looking like a lot of rain coming up the East Coast with #Debby

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

What happened to all the cold weather that was supposed to be coming? Well, here’s the last 5 runs of the GEFS going from legit cold blast to absolutely nada, nothing, zero. As much as it is an El Niño, this winter is slowly becoming a crapshoot

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

Hate to say I told you so but 🤷🏼‍♂️

SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

Being completely honest, I don’t think the system will turn out as bleak as the GFS is depicting. We are in *prime* territory where the GFS loses a storm only to bring it back and still not even in NAM range so it is very much still worth watching

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

Current thoughts on the upcoming storm... It is still a good bet that 6"+ falls across a decent area, but becoming a bit concerned about mixing and a lack of strength in the system as a whole (which would lead to less QPF). So expect changes but this is what I've got for now ❄️

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

Check the trend on the *positioning* of the -NAO block. Along with a better trend over Alaska, these are the type of favorable changes that you want to see first winter weather. Not saying it’s a guarantee but my concern was always with the placement of blocking

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

6 months

Confidence increasing for a major snowstorm on Tuesday. Likely a wide swath of double digit snows for many, especially away from the south coast. ❄️

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

2 years

Watching a potential MAJOR STORM THREAT for the 12/22-12/24 time period. Way too far out for any sort of specific details, but the possibility of a high-impact event is there. We will be tracking for you the entire way through!

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

21 days

Little bit of a taste of September upcoming next week. Highs in the low-mid 70s!

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

FOUR storm threats in the next 10-12 days. Let’s break them down!!! #1 EXTREMELY HIGH IMPACT wind and flooding event Tuesday PM- Wednesday AM. A cutting LP system will bring with it very strong winds and flooding rains on top of a large snowpack in SNE. Major Flooding likely!

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

I honestly do not remember a time where medium range forecasting was *this* bad. I mean, jeez.

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

6 months

Not very often do you see global models printing out modeled snow rates of 3”/hr. This has the potential to be a very, very dynamic system

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

3 years

EARLY IMPACTS MAP... everything is explained in the graphic but as mentioned earlier confidence is increasing in a very significant snowstorm, especially for SNE. Still a long way to go and lots to narrow down but this could be a biggie.

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

9 months

You would be hard pressed to draw up 2 patterns more opposite than these two. Christmas 2022 Arctic plunge 🥶 vs Christmas 2023 pacific jet torch 🔥.

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

The cutter signal for next Saturday has grown significantly. Could be yet another major, major storm system

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

Behind our cutter is a massive outbreak of cold air in the Lower 48. Anomalies like this during what is the coldest 2 week period of the entire year is a major concern.

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

With models also backing away from a SSWE (polar vortex split), the prospects of an average-above average winter snow-wise are just about dead

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

That’ll do it…. Very impressive December storm

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

5 months

I think I speak for everyone when I say… ENOUGH

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

2 years

Snow lovers, shield your eyes! Very warm beginning of February looks likely after our Arctic shot this weekend. Snow chances will be slim to basically none during this time.

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

I know it’s 10 days out but I am really liking the ensemble signal for a snowstorm between the 19th-21st. This is a significant signal at this range and is showing up on all ensembles. Also the exact time period to watch in a pattern like this (as it begins to break down)

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

I am usually very *anti* posting the Euro weekly guidance, however, the signal for a pattern it shows setting up for the beginning of February is very significant. Not often you get this type of confidence in a forecast but I think our active pattern likely continues for a while

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

Just a word of caution… anyone who tells you that they know how this is panning out is lying to you. Here is our two 12z runs right now. Couldn’t be more different

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

7 months

Doesn’t pertain to us, but a few hundred miles NE of us is going to get buried with snow the next 5 days. 3-5 feet likely in Nova Scotia.

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

6 months

This storm has become a forecasting and modeling disaster. I would love to say that this is the final call but I really doubt that it is. Stay tuned

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

3 months

Never thought you’d be able to see the Northern Lights in Boston… what a night !

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

1 month

Couple long range points: 1) It is gonna get HOT again as we head into month end and into early August. Very strong NW flow. 2) That look on the right is *not* what you want to see heading into hurricane season on the East Coast

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

6 months

UPDATED Snow Map for tomorrow. If you compare with my other map you will see not much has changed except for the southern extent of the 8-12" and the addition of a 12-15" zone. I think wherever the band sets up you will likely see more than a foot. Will change ONLY IF NECESSARY

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

7 months

Some of the most fun storms come from last minute NW trends… Updated snow map in a bit but places that stay all snow should see 4-5” iso. 6”

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

7 months

Our first (snow) storm threat shows up in about 8-9 days time. Seeing more of a signal now on ensemble guidance after operational models have been signaling this period for a few days now. Long ways to go so we watch

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

3 years

At the point where we feel comfortable putting a threat map out and here it is. A few potential scenarios on the table with this one and still a ton of uncertainty and spread among even the ensemble members. Main Takeaway: Odds of an impactful Nor'Easter increasing for Saturday

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

6 months

Just think - 3 months from now it’ll be sunny and 75 and none of this will matter.

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

7 months

As we have seen on todays 12z runs, if you can cut off the low at the upper levels you bring in a much more dynamic system that can manufacture its own cold air and increase the ceiling for the potential snow event Sun-Mon

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

2 years

A really good signal is *beginning* to emerge for an overrunning snow event between 7-9 days out. Frigid arctic air driving southward into a strong SE ridge with numerous waves moving along the front is a recipe for snow in the northeast ❄️

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

*I’m using this for purely illustrative purposes* This was the GFS at a 90 and 108 hour lead time for the December 17,2020 snowstorm. The furthest north it got snow was the outer fringes of Boston. This storm brought 40” of snow to NH VT and upstate NY.

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

My goodness... the -NAO signal for mid-month is something to behold. A west-based -NAO of that magnitude will have *huge* implications on the North American pattern.

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

That is one strong storm system… going to leave a mark

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

9 months

Remember when it used to snow in December…

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

7 months

Decent trends for at least some coastal snow mid next week. If nothing else, likely at least some ocean effect ❄️

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

Definitely a workable setup next week 👀

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

4 months

No major warm ups in the foreseeable future

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

9 months

‼️ Winter forecast 2023-24 ‼️ The time has finally come to release my thoughts for this upcoming winter. Although the graphics are pretty simple, I put a lot of thought and time into making this forecast. So please do read below

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

7 months

❄️ Sort of a "spring-like" system coming through tomorrow into Monday. Not much arctic air with the system and a very marginal environment ahead of it means poor ratios and likely minimal impact outside of elevation. Wild card is still back-end snow but we will see how that goes.

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

Just a casual trend from a cutoff low to a fully phased storm. Yeesh

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

Been a lot of debate about a potential pattern shift being “delayed” but I think it’s still on time based on a lot of different indicators. Last 15 runs of the weeklies below, still targeting the first week of January as a transition period into a more favorable ❄️ pattern

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

7 months

Euro and GFS are basically identical at 90 hours. Verbatim would be a big SNE snowstorm and NYC would even get in on some action

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

7 months

80° in DC and 30s in SNE. Very much an April look with a BDCF

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

1 year

WINTER MAKING A COMEBACK: We are watching the potential for a high-impact winter storm about 5-6 days away, centered around next Tuesday. As we have learned this winter, nothing is guaranteed this far out so we will tread with caution right now, but know the threat is there.

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

2 years

Ensembles are still very insistent on a wintry pattern setting up as we head into the first week of December. Long ways to go with this but all signs are pointing towards a cold and potentially active pattern with a -NAO working in tandem with pacific ridging and against SE Ridge

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

Here it comes. Gonna be rocking in the morning

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

10 months

Wont be this warm again til Spring. Enjoy it today!!!

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

6 months

There is *strong* ensemble clustering around the BM 48 hours from now. Exactly how you draw it up for a major SNE snowstorm

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

6 months

Sometimes weather forecasts don’t work out… at all. This is one of those. Will dive into detail at some point but was one of my worst forecasts ever. No bueno

SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

7 months

I see zero reason to move away from the months-long held idea that the majority of our winter weather (snow) falls in Mid Feb-Mid March. Typical for El Niño winter and really no reason to change these ideas.

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

7 months

Continuing to watch late week for a major storm threat. All the makings of a significant storm are in place… just a matter of if it produces or not. Only a week out!

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

3 months

Still no big heat in sight for the east

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

1 year

Euro seasonal is out for the winter and is basically a cut and paste El Niño

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

I promised numbers on the map today so here we are! FIRST CALL SNOW MAP is out as confidence grows for our first major storm of the year. Still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the mix line so we will see how things unfold over the next 24 hours.

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

2 years

Forget about the NAO for a second, this evolution of the pacific on today's EPS is exactly what snow lovers should be hoping pans out

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

*Regardless* of what happens tonight with the front end thump, back end snow tomorrow looks legit and should drop a few more inches in places (especially coastal areas)

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

3 years

SNOWFALL MAP is out! A narrow strip of 18-24"+ is going to setup somewhere but as of now not sure *exactly* where. Favoring SE MA but this could shift east or west depending on the exact track of the low pressure off the coast.

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

2 years

A very impressive outbreak of cold this week coming from a massive -EPO developing in Alaska. Almost every state will be BN

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

While still a week out, a good signal for a snowstorm next Sunday on ensembles. However, important to highlight that models have handled storms *atrociously* this year and a storm with Pacific trough is likely going to bounce around a lot. Stay tuned…

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

Really not sure what everyone is seeing in the LR pattern that is super exciting. Big trof out west will bring cold and storms to them but that’s a clear as day cutter pattern for the East Coast.

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

8 months

For all the snow starved folks (myself included), here is some nice eye candy from the Blizzard of 2022 to hold you over until we get out of this awful pattern ❄️

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

1 year

Wow check out that tornado warned cell on satellite

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

7 months

Any chance of next weekends system coming up the coast is basically gone as the ULL over SNE has trended significantly further east and will act very suppressive. After this, attention likely turns to mid February

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

7 months

Our storm system around Valentine’s Day is bouncing around like a ping pong ball on models. Long way to go on this one

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

9 months

It’s gonna be a long winter if the GFS is going to perform like this

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

5 months

Very real possibility we do not see the sun come out until Sunday... 7 days away

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

2 months

Big ol’ heat dome being advertised for next week. Likely going to kick summer into high gear around here next week so make sure those ACs work!! 🔥

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

2 years

The -NAO setup and then forecasted retrograde is very, very impressive to watch unfold on longer range model guidance. It won't play out exactly this way, but this is how you get those bigger east coast snow storms ❄️

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SNE Weather by Owen

@SNEWxCenter

3 years

Snowfall map will be out after all 12z modeling, likely after 2pm

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