Winter is effectively almost over out east. A few more cool days and can’t rule out the occasional snow in March and/or early April but this one is pretty much donzeo
Not exaggerating when I say that this may be our best long range look in multiple years. This has been something that has been modeled since September (yes, September). We will know in due time if it verifies
The persistence of this upcoming pattern is really something to behold. I think if you’re looking for a big time storm (blockbuster??) for the east coast watch the 2/24-2/28 time frame.
Really no point in waiting so time to raise 'em. UPDATED snowfall map as confidence grows in what looks to be a crippling and potentially historic nor'easter for the region. 24-30" amounts widespread with locally higher amounts in banding.
Very rarely do you get a signal like this at an 8-9 day lead time. High amplitude pattern looks to bring a major storm to the east coast next week. A lot still TBD but looks potentially very high impact
❄️🚨 The official 2022-2023 SNE Weather Center Winter Forecast is HERE ! Below are our overall thoughts and the graphics that accompany them. No blog post at this time but a quick thread on thinking behind this:
Not to beat a dead horse, but the upcoming pattern is just absolutely abysmal for multiple weeks on end. A flood of pacific air will lead to temps well above avg
12z European guidance is about as impressive at it gets for a winter storm signal ~12 days out. Been watching this period for a while now and it’s starting to show up on ensemble guidance…
I see zero reason to move away from the months-long held idea that the majority of our winter weather (snow) falls in Mid Feb-Mid March. Typical for El Niño winter and really no reason to change these ideas.
❄️🚨 MAJOR SNOWSTORM ON THE WAY !! First Call Snow Map for Tuesday!! Likely still some changes to be made and based on what guidance looks like right now I imagine I will be adding a swath of 12"+ to this map somewhere. Coastal flooding is also a major concern as well.
The lack of a -EPO showing up in these projections is a *slight* pause and could cause a lack of cold air but that 500mb pattern projection for the end of the month (matches up with phases 8/1/2 of MJO) is very, very favorable for ❄️
What happened to all the cold weather that was supposed to be coming? Well, here’s the last 5 runs of the GEFS going from legit cold blast to absolutely nada, nothing, zero. As much as it is an El Niño, this winter is slowly becoming a crapshoot
Being completely honest, I don’t think the system will turn out as bleak as the GFS is depicting. We are in *prime* territory where the GFS loses a storm only to bring it back and still not even in NAM range so it is very much still worth watching
Current thoughts on the upcoming storm... It is still a good bet that 6"+ falls across a decent area, but becoming a bit concerned about mixing and a lack of strength in the system as a whole (which would lead to less QPF). So expect changes but this is what I've got for now ❄️
Check the trend on the *positioning* of the -NAO block. Along with a better trend over Alaska, these are the type of favorable changes that you want to see first winter weather. Not saying it’s a guarantee but my concern was always with the placement of blocking
Watching a potential MAJOR STORM THREAT for the 12/22-12/24 time period. Way too far out for any sort of specific details, but the possibility of a high-impact event is there. We will be tracking for you the entire way through!
FOUR storm threats in the next 10-12 days. Let’s break them down!!!
#1
EXTREMELY HIGH IMPACT wind and flooding event Tuesday PM- Wednesday AM. A cutting LP system will bring with it very strong winds and flooding rains on top of a large snowpack in SNE. Major Flooding likely!
EARLY IMPACTS MAP... everything is explained in the graphic but as mentioned earlier confidence is increasing in a very significant snowstorm, especially for SNE. Still a long way to go and lots to narrow down but this could be a biggie.
Behind our cutter is a massive outbreak of cold air in the Lower 48. Anomalies like this during what is the coldest 2 week period of the entire year is a major concern.
Snow lovers, shield your eyes! Very warm beginning of February looks likely after our Arctic shot this weekend. Snow chances will be slim to basically none during this time.
I know it’s 10 days out but I am really liking the ensemble signal for a snowstorm between the 19th-21st. This is a significant signal at this range and is showing up on all ensembles. Also the exact time period to watch in a pattern like this (as it begins to break down)
I am usually very *anti* posting the Euro weekly guidance, however, the signal for a pattern it shows setting up for the beginning of February is very significant. Not often you get this type of confidence in a forecast but I think our active pattern likely continues for a while
Just a word of caution… anyone who tells you that they know how this is panning out is lying to you. Here is our two 12z runs right now. Couldn’t be more different
Couple long range points:
1) It is gonna get HOT again as we head into month end and into early August. Very strong NW flow.
2) That look on the right is *not* what you want to see heading into hurricane season on the East Coast
UPDATED Snow Map for tomorrow. If you compare with my other map you will see not much has changed except for the southern extent of the 8-12" and the addition of a 12-15" zone. I think wherever the band sets up you will likely see more than a foot. Will change ONLY IF NECESSARY
Our first (snow) storm threat shows up in about 8-9 days time. Seeing more of a signal now on ensemble guidance after operational models have been signaling this period for a few days now. Long ways to go so we watch
At the point where we feel comfortable putting a threat map out and here it is. A few potential scenarios on the table with this one and still a ton of uncertainty and spread among even the ensemble members. Main Takeaway: Odds of an impactful Nor'Easter increasing for Saturday
As we have seen on todays 12z runs, if you can cut off the low at the upper levels you bring in a much more dynamic system that can manufacture its own cold air and increase the ceiling for the potential snow event Sun-Mon
A really good signal is *beginning* to emerge for an overrunning snow event between 7-9 days out. Frigid arctic air driving southward into a strong SE ridge with numerous waves moving along the front is a recipe for snow in the northeast ❄️
*I’m using this for purely illustrative purposes*
This was the GFS at a 90 and 108 hour lead time for the December 17,2020 snowstorm. The furthest north it got snow was the outer fringes of Boston. This storm brought 40” of snow to NH VT and upstate NY.
My goodness... the -NAO signal for mid-month is something to behold. A west-based -NAO of that magnitude will have *huge* implications on the North American pattern.
‼️ Winter forecast 2023-24 ‼️
The time has finally come to release my thoughts for this upcoming winter. Although the graphics are pretty simple, I put a lot of thought and time into making this forecast. So please do read below
❄️ Sort of a "spring-like" system coming through tomorrow into Monday. Not much arctic air with the system and a very marginal environment ahead of it means poor ratios and likely minimal impact outside of elevation. Wild card is still back-end snow but we will see how that goes.
Been a lot of debate about a potential pattern shift being “delayed” but I think it’s still on time based on a lot of different indicators. Last 15 runs of the weeklies below, still targeting the first week of January as a transition period into a more favorable ❄️ pattern
WINTER MAKING A COMEBACK: We are watching the potential for a high-impact winter storm about 5-6 days away, centered around next Tuesday. As we have learned this winter, nothing is guaranteed this far out so we will tread with caution right now, but know the threat is there.
Ensembles are still very insistent on a wintry pattern setting up as we head into the first week of December. Long ways to go with this but all signs are pointing towards a cold and potentially active pattern with a -NAO working in tandem with pacific ridging and against SE Ridge
Sometimes weather forecasts don’t work out… at all. This is one of those. Will dive into detail at some point but was one of my worst forecasts ever. No bueno
I see zero reason to move away from the months-long held idea that the majority of our winter weather (snow) falls in Mid Feb-Mid March. Typical for El Niño winter and really no reason to change these ideas.
Continuing to watch late week for a major storm threat. All the makings of a significant storm are in place… just a matter of if it produces or not. Only a week out!
I promised numbers on the map today so here we are!
FIRST CALL SNOW MAP is out as confidence grows for our first major storm of the year. Still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the mix line so we will see how things unfold over the next 24 hours.
*Regardless* of what happens tonight with the front end thump, back end snow tomorrow looks legit and should drop a few more inches in places (especially coastal areas)
SNOWFALL MAP is out! A narrow strip of 18-24"+ is going to setup somewhere but as of now not sure *exactly* where. Favoring SE MA but this could shift east or west depending on the exact track of the low pressure off the coast.
While still a week out, a good signal for a snowstorm next Sunday on ensembles. However, important to highlight that models have handled storms *atrociously* this year and a storm with Pacific trough is likely going to bounce around a lot. Stay tuned…
Really not sure what everyone is seeing in the LR pattern that is super exciting. Big trof out west will bring cold and storms to them but that’s a clear as day cutter pattern for the East Coast.
For all the snow starved folks (myself included), here is some nice eye candy from the Blizzard of 2022 to hold you over until we get out of this awful pattern ❄️
Any chance of next weekends system coming up the coast is basically gone as the ULL over SNE has trended significantly further east and will act very suppressive. After this, attention likely turns to mid February
The -NAO setup and then forecasted retrograde is very, very impressive to watch unfold on longer range model guidance. It won't play out exactly this way, but this is how you get those bigger east coast snow storms ❄️