SH8Model @SH8Model Twitter profile

Pinned Tweet

SH8Model

2 months

Bets I made after reading Anthony's piece and other items: Wins Tournament France +400 Netherlands +1800 Qualifies Austria -130 Slovenia +130 Does not Qualify Romania -110 Scotland -110 Wins Group Spain -125

Anthony Dabbundo

@AnthonyDabbundo

2 months

I ranked all 24 teams in the Euros, highlighted a key player for each team and dropped my favorite bets in my Euro 2024 mega guide:

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Last Seen Profiles

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

2 years

@AdamSchefter Adam's search history before sending out this tweet

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

7 months

@JoeGoodberry Lamar with the falcons weapons would’ve been a nightmare for the rest of the nfc.

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

2 years

@HaroldRKuntz3 Never saw his face. I’m guessing body double. NFL can’t get anything past us!

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

2 years

@ExclusiveRaps @SauceuaMandela @TheNBACentral 2 boards away from immortality

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

1 year

@KevinOConnorNBA @haralabob Was incredibly frustrating to watch the possessions where Denver went on that 11-0 run. Not sure Reaves touched the ball more than 1-2x in those 2 min

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

4 years

Basically no difference between the AAF and the #XFL

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

2 years

@alexjimithing @MattLombardoNFL I legit thought this was a parody of what someone might have said in 1967. But he actually meant it.

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

2 years

@Phil_Lewis_ What a story. That PE teacher needs some incredible recognition. Saved the kid’s life

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

8 months

@amicsta If Jimmy was the starter this year and putting up huge numbers, he’d be the mvp favorite and we would all have him in pocket at 20/1 or better. Instead we’re gonna win with Purdy.

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

2 years

the best week in the 10 year history of the model 35-11 +23.25u Sides worked, totals worked, penalties worked, team totals worked, sacks worked, teasers worked, yard props worked and most importantly, 2nd half bets returned to profitability! LETS NOT GIVE IT BACK!

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

1 year

@DBro_FFB Found Tua’s search history.

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

2 years

I don’t know how anyone has a better golf tweet in 2022.

No Laying Up

@NoLayingUp

2 years

Phil, two seconds after reading your tweet:

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

2 years

My initial 2022 NFL Power Ratings I added a column FTP (FG's, TO's and Penalties) to help better explain how certain teams outperform/underperform their offensive and defensive metrics I'll post a thread explaining the moves on my PR I made during the offseason Congrats Bills!

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

3 years

An absolutely beautiful MNF game takes us to 22-10-1 for the week Wk 1: 20-9 +9.12u Wk 2: 19-11 +6.24u Wk 3: 22-10 +10.68u Season: 61-30 +26.04u Sides, Team Totals, Teasers and especially 2h's (10-3) worked. Sacks, TD's and FG's did not Lets stay hot!

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

2 years

@ScooterMagruder I think he was crucial to the development of Dak and the top tier offense we had the last few years. No idea how it’s going to be under Mike but hard to see it being as good. Brutal

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

5 months

Insane

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

2 years

@youwatchwhatpod She’s just getting ready for the season.

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

5 years

SH8 Model Plays (all on heritage) Sides: .8u Chi -3 -120 .8u SF +1 -110 .8u Jax +3.5 -110 .8u Ten +5.5 -110 1.2u Car +3 -120 Totals .8u Bal/Mia o37.5 -110 1.2u Det/AZ u47.5 -110 .8u Cin/Sea o44 -110 Team Totals .8u Balt TT o22 -115 .8u AZ u22.5 -115

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

4 months

@KylePorterCBS 1 under with no putter rest of the round?? 😂

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

11 months

On the eve of the football season, here are my projected standings for the year, strength of schedule chart and power ratings Will post futures, week 1 and 2 bets after First you'll see I have the AFC going 9 games over .500, meaning I'll have 1 NFC sub 500 playoff team! 1/3

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

9 months

@Marcus_Mosher I came away pretty enthusiastic about that game TBH. Sure it didn’t work out but the gap between Phi and Dal is much closer than it was last year. SF is still another level above but there is a possibility to avoid them.

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

3 years

@tejfbanalytics I use this for running backs. “Yeah but his pass protection is elite” and u can point to the one highlight block he had all season.

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

5 years

@geoffschwartz @ThaCaptnMorgan 3 of the 11 were end of half/game possessions. End of 1st half with :35 left, and two end of game with :09 and :02 left. Only 8 real possessions for a team that was 3rd in total drives per game is pretty amazing, don’t you think?

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

11 months

@TDISportsClips “That tree’s gonna get chopped down” 🤣

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

2 years

7-2 on the player props 7-1 on the team props LFG

SH8Model

@SH8Model

2 years

since player props are much easier to find: same idea k hunt o35.5 -115 PB j brissett u195.5 -110 MGM c wentz u34.5 PA +100 DK d jones u207.5 -115 DK c edmonds u45.5 -125 PB c patterson u47.5 -115 MGM r penny u50.5 -115 PB a rodgers u250.5 -115 MGM a rodgers u33.5 -120 PA PB

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

3 years

@PFF_Eric I think it’s because of the lower standard deviation of potential outcomes. While the mean of a pass play is greater, the tail risk is greater too, both good and bad. The goal of every series is getting a first down so the predictability of a run has value. Risk adj returns

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

3 years

listening to @BenjaminSolak on the cheat code pod talk about how easy the opposition has been for Buffalo so I wanted to compare it to my numbers and its staggering -4.68 = facing Atl every week -2.6 Offense = facing the Jags every week -1.9 Defense = facing Seattle every week

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

2 years

@CLARS24 I got you!

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

2 years

Fun way to lose the teaser

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

2 years

#1 on @betsperts NFL leaderboard We'll see how long this last this year 🤣

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

1 year

Long season ends with a nice 4-0 super bowl. I didnt see much of an edge on the props but the ones we did have an edge on won easily Playoffs 33-24, 57.9% +7.77u Season 474-385 55.2% +27.38u Full chart for the playoffs attached. Season thoughts below

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

3 years

Week 5 live bets chart Mia lead = TB TB lead = Under Phi lead = Over NO lead = O Ten lead = O Jax lead = Ten and O Det lead = O Min lead = O GB lead = GB Hou lead = O LV lead = U Cle lead = Cle LAC lead = U NYG lead = O SF lead = SF and O Great start on TNF, lets keep it going!

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

5 months

@MikeClayNFL The trend was already heading down. Would guess 2 factors more than the extra game: 1) qb’s running a lot more than in 2012 2) much shorter leashes for starters than in the past. Injury wasn’t the only reason we had 10 rookies start this year

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

3 years

#1 on @betsperts 's ROI leaderboard! This run will end at some point but enjoying the view from the top!

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

8 months

@Johnnyp135DFS I thought Kellen was that dude 😂

SH8Model

@SH8Model

2 years

Kellen to the chargers means getting a ton of San Diego in pocket for next year and some Herbert mvp tickets as well Elite OC with elite talent will finally take him to the next level

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

3 years

Exhilarating week 1. what an incredible game in Las Vegas!! 18-6 +9.12u to start the year Sides: 2-1 +1u Totals: 4-2 +1.82u Team Totals: 4-0 +4u Sacks: 0-2 -2.6u Punts: 1-2 -1.5u 2nd Half: 7-2 +4.4u Teasers: 2-0 +2u We're on to week 2

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

1 year

@DoerflerJared You missed the all important nightlife/casino category that may change these rankings somewhat

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

3 years

just for fun!

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

4 years

Model had a week! Week 12: 20-8 +11.1u Season: 145-104-9 +28.4u I will say last year week 12 was the peak and while we finished positive, we gave back a lot of units from week 13- Super Bowl. SOOO will be very careful going forward. Still, what a week!!

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

5 months

@goldenpants013 To truly be great at anything, you gotta be addicted to it. At least a little bit. Otherwise you’re just a passer by, like everybody else.

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

9 months

@DBro_FFB Sometimes the coaches do know more than we do. Tony was perfect for his role behind Zeke and Zeke was great at absorbing the punishment a lead back in the cowboys system requires. We’re gonna continue to underperform in the RZ until we give a different RB a chance

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

4 years

Preseason #NFL Power Ratings These are my projections for all 32 teams. Overall value and YPP on the left, offense and defense ranks in the middle and special teams and turnovers on the right

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

7 months

@KevinCole___ Damn we are victims of the moment 😂

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

1 year

@DVNJr The criticism from Lewis appears to be for the farcical way that big time college athletics treat the student side of student athlete. He does not appear to be criticizing the kids themselves here - they’re put on a path to be employees of the football team and not students.

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

2 years

Don’t know that I’ll have a luckier day betting the rest of 2023 Sea/SF over 43 ✅ over rush att ✅ over rush yards ✅ 2h over ✅ SF 2h TT over ✅ LAC/JAX Jax + 2.5 ✅ Jax +9.5 ✅ 2h over ✅ under penalties ✅ And even a couple bucks on these ML’s and the dumb PB bets

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

9 months

@Ziggys_Duck One of the most devastating lines in tv history. BRUTAL.

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

3 years

How do u let kupp get behind u like that. How do u not Squibb How do u get a punt blocked How u throw that last pick. A summary of the 4 games

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

3 years

Days like today really make me miss Dave Malinsky. What I would give to hear what he would have to say about this crazy weekend of football. I found this old response from Oct 29, 2016 (and yes i searched my inbox using "vagaries" to find it - such a Dave word) @MLandes18

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

4 years

2h/live looks for today: Hou lead = Cle Cle lead = O (weather permitting) Jax lead = GB Phi lead = U Car lead = U Buf lead = U Sea lead = LAR LAR lead = U Bal lead = Bal and O NE lead = NE LAC lead = LAC Mia lead = LAC Min lead = Min and O Orange = options to consider as well

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

5 years

Just saw this on #SportsCenter with @notthefakeSVP and I think it’s the greatest shot I’ve seen in any sporting event ever.

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

3 years

@betstamp From the late great David Malinsky

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

4 years

belichick without brady.

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

1 year

As we all make our preseason projections - many that will be accurate and many that will be laughable - a reminder from the late great David Malinsky from 2016 when someone asked him why sports betting is not about predicting outcomes

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

1 year

@MichaelBensonn I don’t know how one judge gave the third to Haney, that’s wild. One dude gave the TENTH to Haney The fucking tenth!! Agreed with most of the rest. That’s how I ended up 114-114. But the third and tenth I thought were clear for Loma.

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

2 years

@JustinGePluto @barstoolsports I really liked the point that he always did whatever the team needed for them to win. High motor, competed on every possession, didn’t care if he didnt score. Probably feels underrated by the avg fan who only remembers his ugly ass shooting form.

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

4 years

@ActionNetworkHQ 1) No bet in the same sport at the same time of the season is worth considerably more than any others. There’s no way that on the same day you can have a play thats 3x greater edge than another in the same league. 2) manage your bankroll so it doesn’t manage your emotions

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

1 year

@KylePorterCBS Jordan Zimmerman is the clear answer. 127m in career earnings and looks like any dad you’d see at your kids tee ball game.

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

4 years

Good game for us as the Colts won the box score and real score. Punts and Sacks unders were no doubters. Colts 2h no doubter. Blocked punt TD probably cost us the Titans Teaser side Colts +.61 pt upgrade Titans -.75 pt downgrade On to Sunday!

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

2 years

BOSTON. CELTICS. BASKETBALL! Thank you for the winner @_Noops @TheSeigeDFS @Straface23 So happy I didn’t take anything off.

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

3 years

Brutal. That holding cost Browns the cover. +4.5 -110 on a game that closes 3 -111 on pinnacle and it meant nothing because of that holding Woooooof this season has turned into a complete shit show

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

4 years

Week 11 @NFL score projections and power ratings Go my teams, boo your teams!

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

2 years

last weekend the gambling gods gave us free money with the saturday teaser. are they really doing it again??? they're being that nice to us? we'll find out.

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

8 months

@KyleBrandt Whatever the hell joe Mixon was trying to do here

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

2 years

9 plays for week 18 Sides: Dal +4.5 -110 at Was* Phi -1.5 -110 v NYG* Chi +2.5 -110 v Min Jax -6 -110 v Ten Det +3 -110 at GB Sea -3 -110 v LAR Totals NEP/Buf u43 -110 Car/NOS o39 -110 Hou/Ind u39 -110 *chart assumes Cooper Rush and Gardner Minshew

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

5 years

Super Bowl Box Score You can see how highly the model views SF's D by how pedestrian the KC O projections are It has SF with more plays, more YPP, more rushing yards higher NYPA and less punts Higher likelihood of INT and missed FG only thing keeping it close 1.5u u53.5 -108

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

4 years

If this clip doesn’t define the 2020 season I don’t know what does!

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

4 months

there’s been like 4 moving screens already not called in this UConn men’s game. 3 minutes in Wonder why all the rules experts aren’t complaining about it!

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

4 years

Week 13 plays Sides SF +3 -116 (from earlier in the week) LV -7.5 -109 Den +14 -113 Totals (only see these on @betonline_ag ) Det/Chi u45 -110 Was/Pit u43.5 -110 Teaser LV -2/GB -2.5 6pt Teaser -120 Leans on Wash, NOS, Cle, LAC and Balt but need better lines for PR reasons

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

3 years

Thank @betsperts ! Hat color is amazing (didn’t show right in the last pic)

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

3 years

Week 2 5 totals, 1 side - looking at 2 other sides: NYG/Was u42.5 -105 SF/Phi o48 -120 Hou/Cle o47.5 -108 Den/Jax o44 -108 Min/AZ o51 -108 Buf -3.5 -105

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

10 months

Week 6 Standings SF up to 15 wins Jax up to 10 Atl up to 9.8 Was down to 5.7 NEP down to 6.4 Power Ratings SF best team ever thru 5 weeks Min a much better team than last year SOS NYG/NEP/Pit hardest Bal/SF/NO easiest Remaining Sched Cinci toughest Atl Easiest

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

4 years

Week 13 Recap 9-4 +4.57u We left some meat on the bone passing on the Cle, Was and NOS positions the model liked but overall a good week. Season 154-108-9 +32.97u Week 14 looks tough so will continue to be cautious but happy to have 2 open teasers heading into the week

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

11 months

Week 2 plays KC -2.5 -110 (WH) Det -2.5 -115 (DK) Pit -1 -110 (DK) Ind/Hou u41.5 -110 (FD) LV/Buf o47.5 -110 (WH) 1.5u Chi/TB u44.5 -110 (FD)

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

4 years

Here is the grid for the week 4 sides, 6 unders, 1 team total and 2 teasers Waiting for line to drop more on min/sea to take the over. Waiting on 1h totals to pick off some more unders.

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

4 years

Week 11 plays. All on @bookmaker_eu Sides AZ +3.5 -112 Cle -3 -118 LV +7 -113 LAC -9.5 -108 Total AZ/Sea o57 -111 GB/Ind u49.5 -113 LAR/TB u49 -105

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

3 years

in retrospect, what was reich v kliff worth to the line? 7?

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

2 years

Updated expected wins chart Yellow means division favorites. Orange means wildcard Biggest jumps were: Buf, KC, TB, Min, NYG +1.3 wins Biggest fall: Dallas -2.6 wins Really bad losses by SF, Car, Ten and Den Wentz with the 7th seed.....

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

3 years

This is such a good pod with @suuma810 talking about CLV, building NFL models and the resources he relies on week in and week out. Fantastic

22: Fabian Sommer Joins for a Discussion

Listen to this episode from Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts on Spotify. Circles Off welcomes Fabian Sommer (@suuma810) to disucss his NFL model and how hes been able to find success betting in...

open.spotify.com

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

4 years

Live 11-12 are Balt -3.5 +119 and over 24 +108 (both on @bookmaker_eu ) Cowboys are going to give up 300 yards rushing. Balt's non-existent pass rush is worrisome for the Balt side but good for the over market really disagrees with both lets go!

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

3 years

Initial Rankings for the 2021 Season Tier 1 KC, TB, LAR, GB, Buf Tier 2 SF, Bal, AZ, NO, Cle Tier 3 Min, NE, Atl, Phi, Dal, LV, Ten, LAC, Sea Tier 4 Was, Pit, Car, Ind, Den Tier 5 Mia, NYJ, Chi, Jax, Cin Tier 6 NYG, Det Tier 7 Hou

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

3 years

4-2 Sunday to close out a really nice week 2 (will post a recap later). Monday baseball below!

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

2 years

Beautiful wild card week! 18-5 +13.3u 4-1 on sides, luckily remembered Tampa wasn't good and bought out of the position this morning 2nd halves worked, props worked. Season: 459-366 55.6% +32.91u

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

8 months

@Ben_Cary_ The market makes a ton of mistakes on highly liquid markets, like the nfl.

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

3 years

Week 16 Recap 22-6 +15u. The single best week out of the 144 in the model's history 2h bets were beautiful at 10-3, finishing off with the live under this evening. Back in black for the season: 274-234 +10.75u What a fun grind this year has been!

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

2 years

World Cup thread Will have one bet on every match! Sunday Qatar +.25 -114 Monday Iran/England u2.25 -116 Senegal +1 -112 v Netherlands USA PK -130 v Wales Tuesday Argentina -2 -104 v Saudi Arabia Tunisia/Denmark o2.25 -108 Mexico PK -103 v Poland Australia +1.75 -112 v France

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

2 years

hard to see this parlay losing today. very hard.

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

3 years

4-1 night, only blemish this evening was our live over 53.5. for the week 19-10-1 +6.74u Good week for sides (5-2), team totals (4-1), sacks (2-0), punts (2-0) and FG's (1-0). Bad week for totals (3-3) and 2h/live (2-4-1) 39-19 +15.86u for the season Onto week 3!!

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

3 years

INCREDIBLE AZ comeback for a 7-1 Wednesday. Only that fantastic play by Zach Short prevented the sweep Thursday baseball - no real value on sides but some value on 4 totals. Let's tread carefully!

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

2 years

Here’s to a great football season! /6

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

1 year

My process for baseball is the same as the last two. 2022 was a really turbulent year finished 393-377 +5.7u but i was down 31u by May 15th. 2021 was a great year up 31u finishing 344-313 but considering i was up 34u after 3 weeks, a disappointment The plan this year 1/x

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

3 years

My favorite part about betting on sports - failing and trying again: My worst betting loss ever was live betting Bal v Ten 2 years ago over and over again. After that game I decided to change my entire 2h approach and this year has really been the culmination of those efforts

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

3 years

Week 3 plays i just fired on: LAR -1.5 -103 (BM) Atl +3.5 -115 (DK) LV -4.5 -110 (FD) Cin/Pit u45 -110 (DK) Dal/Phi o51.5 -108 (BM)

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

3 years

Here are the week 4 projections and the plays we've made so far - some pretty bad CLV so might be the first losing week of the year. Betting on NEP so early was incredibly stupid and seeing 7's pop up is annoying Still deciding on which teasers to play.

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

4 years

This has to be the worst one I’ve ever seen!

Funhouse

@BackAftaThis

4 years

This might be the funniest game I've ever seen featured on #BadBeats ...

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

3 years

Final MLB numbers tracked on @betstamp 345-313-35 +31.15u I should've stopped in April! Totals accounted for over 80% of the returns. ML's lost 1u on 268 bets so basically free entertainment. Thanks to @ExpectedEdge ! Without their model, no way we have this type of year.

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

4 years

Sunday #NFL Live betting looks: LAR lead = Under Pitt lead = Under Atl lead = Dal Dal lead = Atl Buf lead = Buf Gb lead = Det and Over Ten lead = Over Bal lead = Bal KC lead = Under NE lead = NE NO lead = LV

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

4 years

Box scores and plays for tomorrow: TB 24 - GB 29 u5.5 Sacks -160 u7.5 Punts -115 o6 TD's EV (also played o5.5 -138) Buf 26 - KC 33 KC -3 -110 u3.5 sacks -115 u6.5 punts -120 Laid off the over in KC as there are concerns about 2h wind. Better report and may jump on it

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

4 years

What a phenomenal football game. So good that my model upgraded both teams off it Vegas from 4.44 to 5.07 KC from 6.05 to 6.59 Two of the best teams in the game and a 5-0 game for us. hooray!

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

4 years

LAR/TB Over 7.5 punts -108 Line's way too low!

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SH8Model

@SH8Model

7 months

@ericeager_ I miss the days of 140 max characters

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