BREAKING NEWS: Emmanuel Macron starts his speech at UNGA with the most pressing issue, no grand intellectual contemplating or literary sentences. He goes straight to the point, denounces Russia's invasion of Ukraine in blunt terms, and the fence-sitters.
A hugely welcome change
1/ Why did Iran militarily escalate in the Gulf lately? Shooting down a US drone, seizing tankers, bombing Saudi oil infrastructure? It wanted to internationalise the conflict. The Strait of Hormuz is where most of the world's shipping transits. The US chose not to go there.
If you're outside Lebanon and want to help, please donate:
-Lebanese Red Cross (doing heroic work on explosion site)
-Lebanese Food Bank
-Beit al Baraka
A fuller list here:
#Beirut
Excellent from Macron on Ukraine: "Peace cannot be turning the situation into a frozen conflict... experience teaches us that a frozen conflict will be a war for tmrw...peace must...respect UN charter"
hopefully puts to bed the harebrained schemes some have been trying to concoct
5/ The most important part of Soleimani's killing, isn't his killing (as big as that is), it is the deep US intelligence penetration around Iran's most important military leader that it revealed. Signals and human intel. This is what is going to spook the Iranian camp the longest
Terrible org at
#G7
in Cornwall.
Journalists have been parked an hour’s drive away from where leaders are meeting.
Almost like everything was designed to keep journalists as far as possible - which is the opposite of democratic. Not a good look for the mtg of wealthy democracies.
I cannot overstate how imp it is to avoid speculation.
The extent of devastation in Beirut is beyond imagination. Lots of injured ppl. Entire port area raised to the ground. Gigantic impact radius.
Lebanese are on their last shreds of hope. Plz keep them in mind when tweeting
Boudjema jouait à la pétanque qd 1 homme avec 1grd couteau attaque 2 touristes. Avec Smail Ahmed Hisham Farid ils le poursuivent, jettent leurs boules sur lui et l’arrêtent. Boudjema né en Algérie, en France depuis 16ans. Les migrants c’est eux aussi.
How much shall we bet that if fasting Muslims took their annual leaves during Ramadan they’d be accused of not integrating/assimilating and/or of fundamentalism?
#Islamophobia
[after a year of work employees in Denmark are entitled to 5 weeks paid time off]
11/ There are many so-called anti-imperialists who always criticise Western intervention but justify Iranian/Russian intervention. Iran is not a legit actor in Iraq/Syria/Leb/Yemen. Its crimes there are no less reprehensible than those by the US or colonialists.
#Soleimani
9/ The myth of invincibility that Iran built around Soleimani was a huge recruitment tool, it may also now turn out to be a double-edged sword. How does its most valiant warrior, its most effective US challenger, get picked off so precisely by the US?
4/ Real US reckless action or declaration of war wld have been attacking Iranian soil.
This admin determined that the cost of tolerating Soleimani alive had now exceeded the benefits of not killing him. We must wait and see whether that was the right call, no one knows today.
7/ What happens next: let's be clear, no one knows for sure, even those who will decide some of the next steps.
The Iranian regime is not suicidal, it is strategic, calculating (even if it miscalculates sometimes), so likelihood of an all-out direct US-Iran war is low.
2/ US also held its own line: a US person killed meant retaliation. It targeted the militia that did the attack. It was reciprocal, but also punitive to send a message. Iran-backed militia escalated against US embassy. US managed the attack, didn't blow everything up.
#Soleimani
6/ Why did US claim the
#Soleimani
kill, instead of following the Israeli ambiguity playbook?
US and Israel have different roles and capacities. The US is the mightiest military power around, owning attacks cld be part of deterrence, showing force, restoring escalation dominance
3/ US responded to embassy attack, and many lower level attacks by Iranian-backed militias in run-up, by killing, in Iraq, the head of all Iranian-backed anything
#Soleimani
. US may have just restored some escalation dominance. Whether it's part of cogent strategy is different Qu
Compare the precision of the Israeli strike to kill Arouri in the southern suburb of Beirut with the pulverizing campaign in Gaza. Turns out there are more precise options than turning entire neighborhoods to dust. Unless the point is to make said neighborhoods uninhabitable.
Chilling words from the head of ER at Pompidou Hospital:
"In the paris area 20% increase of hospitalisations over 24h, 35% more patients on respirators, they walk in speaking, 2h later they're asphyxiated. Plz stop going out, this thing is of a gravity that you cannot imagine"
10/ Concern for US military, diplo personnel, and citizens, in the region is legit. But allowing it to dictate policy plays into Iran's hands which weaponises Western sensitivity to human loss, and war weariness, to further destabilise the region unchecked.
#Soleimani
8/ Khamenei promised response, it must be strong enough to save face internally, for a regime already strained + facing popular dissent, and also be calibrated to avoid provoking a US response inside Iran. Iran response will show whether deterrence restored
#Soleimani
If you're scandalised by Turkey's threat to let Syrian refugees get to Europe, ask yourself why you're ok with:
-these refugees freezing to death at the Turkish border?
-Europe's wilful impotence in such a conflict at its border.
-leaving Turkey holding the baby?
#Idlib
In 2019, in Biarritz, France provided a proper catering service, with breakfast, snacks, lunch services. It was clear they had thought about the needs of journalists. And in fact, beyond the org issues, France delivered a riveting newsmaking summit. The UK has not.
The majority of the Lebanese who oppose Hezbollah are also disgusted by what Israel has done to Gaza and what it is doing to South Lebanon and the Bekaa. These 2 sentiments are perfectly coherent. And this applies to Muslims and Christians btw. Just look at Lebanese social media.
12/ Iran is set to announce its next violations of the JCPOA in next few days. That's another thing to look out for, other than a military retaliation, in wake of today's
#Soleimani
kill. Will it escalate to the point of affecting break-out time or not?
At the last in-person G7, hosted by France in Biarritz, journos were across the street from leaders. We shouted questions from balcony, had many opportunities to run into leaders and for impromptu press huddles. That was democratic.
No mobile PCR testing facilities here. An NHS facility on site but w/registration system that blocks out foreign (at least French) phones. This is a basic logistical necessity for foreign journos to be able to travel home. Portugal did great providing this at May EUCO in Porto.
The Elysee gave unprecedented access to a journo (who doesnt cover FP/diplomacy). He filmed Macron's calls w/Putin, Scholz, Draghi, BoJo, Grossi, followed Macron's diplo advisers, getting exceedingly rare on-the-record on camera quotes.
A thread on
#UnPresidentLEuropeEtLaGuerre
Per French diplomatic official:
Macron did not agree to invite Russia to 2020 G7 Reinstatement still conditioned on Crimean issue
They agreed to discuss in Biarritz
After Putin mtg, feel progress coming on prisoner exchange, demilitarisation
Normandy format summit likely in Fall
Scoop: Trump & Macron spoke over the phone today & agreed they wanted to invite Russia to the G7 next year, a sr admin official said. Trump is expected to broach the topic w/ world leaders at the G7. Today Trump told reporters it would be “appropriate” for Russia to re-enter G7.
French diplomatic source: France was not consulted with, or warned about the US decision to withdraw troops from Syria.
[France has troops in Syria, and is a partner in the anti-ISIS coalition]
Macron spoke to me exclusively on the flight to
#Beirut
:
-waging war on Hezbollah wld be “crazy and absurd”
-no deal with Iran over Lebanon
-he didn’t pick Adib
-imposing Nawaf Salam without the needed parliamentary buy-in is setting him up to fail
No food at
#G7
media center or at fwd media holding area when we do get to the leaders’ mtg site. Media are made to hold for hrs, do you rlly want grumpy hungry journalists? Fwd media holding area was def improvised as an afterthought, by someone who doesn’t get how journos work
Why, OH WHY, did we have to wait this long for a speech from
@EmmanuelMacron
on the world stage that is this clear and intelligible.
There wasn't one sentence that could be misinterpreted, or mistranslated. Nothing that cld blindside allies.
To make sure those living with abusive parters, suffering from
#DomesticViolence
, can get the help they need despite coronavirus lockdown, pharmacies in France are now safe havens, where they can seek refuge and help.
[going to pharmacy is one of 7 authorised reasons to go out]
"Why is France targeted... by violent extremists? ... The reason is simple: France’s extreme form of secularism and its embrace of blasphemy, which has fueled radicalism among a marginalized minority."
No, nothing justifies killing.
This argument is despicable.
France moving from mostly transferring weapons in its stocks, to French companies starting to build co-production facilities in Ukraine. Which is the more sustainable model.
For now it’s mainly the smaller/medium sized companies.
I welcomed French Defence Minister
@SebLecornu
.
I appreciate France’s comprehensive support and
@EmmanuelMacron
’s efforts to enhance our defense, including very effective SAMP/T, Caesar, SCALP-EG.
We discussed co-production projects and strengthening of Ukraine’s air defense.
Macron is a diehard football fan. He was so nervous (like the rest of us) that he had taken off his blazer and rolled up his sleeves the last 45min of play.
Here he is consoling Mbappé, on the pitch.
#FIFAWorldCup
Today's
#EUCO
deal is hands down Macron's biggest victory in foreign policy to date. Will be an essential part of his legacy. The common debt, the way he and Merkel worked together (it took 3 years but they did it). Delivering on much of his European presidential campaign promise
Quite a picture from Saudi given the strict rules that still govern male-female interactions in this conservative gender-segregated society. #المراه_السعوديه_تسوق
Biden/Macron to speak today, per Élysée official. Will discuss way fwd on coronavirus, climate, trade, tech, Sahel, Libya, Iran, E. Med, Euro sovereignty/strat autonomy, the future of NATO, multilateralism, WHO reform, China, Russia as well as financing of African economies.
"who was here during the pandemic? who gives development aid? not those who are coming to you with proposals of a new world order - not those who didnt have an effective vaccines" - Macron at UNGA
BURN 🇷🇺🇨🇳
Thrilled to be taking over for
@Judy_Dempsey
as the editor in chief of
#StrategicEurope
at
@Carnegie_Europe
!
We’ll be serving up rigorous analysis, vigorous debate, constructive criticism and even some praise, as well as a pinch of irreverence on all things euro-strategic.
We are delighted to welcome
@RymMomtaz
as the new editor in chief of Carnegie Europe's blog "Strategic Europe."
An award-winning journalist-turned-analyst, Rym brings expertise on Europe, the Middle East, & the interplay between those spaces.
Learn more:
Si si j'ai dit à la télé que ce que Macron a dit à la fin du G7 était "parfait" sur les contours de la paix souhaitée en Ukraine (pas de gel du conflit. respect de la charte de l'ONU)
C'était chez
@agindre
ce soir.
Excellent from Macron on Ukraine: "Peace cannot be turning the situation into a frozen conflict... experience teaches us that a frozen conflict will be a war for tmrw...peace must...respect UN charter"
hopefully puts to bed the harebrained schemes some have been trying to concoct
Is Emmanuel Macron really saying the Arab revolutions, you know the ones where millions of Arabs braved decades of autocratic rule and demanded freedom, democratic representation, human rights, were basically a... regression?
That's what the remaining Arab autocrats say.
La majorité des libanais qui s'opposent au Hezbollah, sont en même temps dégoutés par ce qu'Israel fait à Gaza, au Sud Liban et dans la Bekaa. Ces 2 positions ne sont pas contradictoires pour chrétiens comme musulmans. Y a qu'à faire un tour sur les réseaux sociaux libanais.
No one protests like Lebanon. It's now official.
This is in Tripoli, but apparently there's another DJ in Jal el Deeb too...
It *is* Saturday night afterall, why not combine the two?
#لبنان_ينتفض #لبنان_يثور
If Hamas rlly cared abt the civilians in Gaza wouldn't it have stockpiled food, fuel, gas or medicine/surgical equipment to lessen their suffering when Israel's predictable retaliation happened to the attack/massacre they spent all this time preparing?
Unsurprisingly, no stocks
Want to know what it's like to cover Macron?
Since Sunday I have written 8 articles on:
-Lebanon
-Russia strategic dialogue
-Belarus
-Baltics/NATO
-Radical islamism
and contributed reporting on EUCO/Turkey/Eastern Med
and kept an eye on Nagorno-Karabakh diplomacy
Yesterday, Avi Hyman Israeli govt spox, unable to give
@piersmorgan
a *ballpark* number for how many Palestinian civilians the IDF has killed since the beginning of its offensive in Gaza.
Know what might help shed light on numbers? Allowing intl journalists+HR researchers in.
I break several of my rules here - compartmentalizing, not making it personal or about myself - but going to
#Beirut
post-explosion w/Macron my worlds collided:
"My reporter’s mind was focused on my assignment, but my Beiruti body was mourning its city."
1000s of Syrian refugees reaching Greek border => EMERGENCY MEETING 🚨🚨
2 months of steady stream of up to 1million Syrians - inclu >500,000 children, crowding border with Turkey, kids freezing to death => Emergency what? Nothing to see or hear!
At least values are clear.
Ramadan ended tonight, Eid’s tomorrow but between videos of ppl dumpster diving in Beirut, catastrophic socio-economic collapse in Lebanon, and the images out of Jerusalem and suffering in Gaza, plus Syria and Yemen as ever, doesn’t feel like there’s much to decently celebrate.
The Ukrainian government will have to give lessons to EU countries in public diplomacy and comms after the Ukrainians expel Russia from their land.
Smart to focus their request from France on a piece of weaponry the French are (rightly) proud of.
"Please send us more"
"who was here during the pandemic? who gives development aid? not those who are coming to you with proposals of a new world order - not those who didnt have an effective vaccines" - Macron at UNGA
BURN 🇷🇺🇨🇳
[A division b/w West and rest? A new world order taking shape/?] "what kind of a [new world] order is this? Who is hegemonic? It's Russia"
Macron dropping truth bombs at UNGA.
Clearly his speech is focused on one audience: the countries that have tried to sit on the fence.
Is Morrison credible?
- why did Australia reaffirm its commitment to 🇫🇷 submarine deal in Aug 30 joint declaration of FR+AUS FM/DefMin?
- why did he not tell Macron in June he had decided to scrap the deal when Macron asked him if he was considering nuke-prop (per FR diplo)?
French security agencies are the absolute champions of this Olympic Games opening ceremony given the threat level against France.
Of course Paris is the most gorgeous metropolis, an unequalled backdrop for any show, the ceremony had beautiful tableaux but also some headscratchers
White House and Élysée readouts of Biden/Macron call, and interesting slight differences namely the Élysée says explicitly they “noted their convergence and desire to work together... on the Iranian nuke issue and...Lebanon”
1/2
Finnish PM
@MarinSanna
throwing massive shade - takes the floor and starts with "it's nice to hear the men, in Finland all the ministers are women."
#EU
#socialsummit
🚨I am thrilled to be joining the
@IISS_org
as Consultant Research Fellow for European Foreign Policy and Security. I will be staying in Paris and continuing to work on French strategic issues, among other topics, fear not. Heartfelt thanks to the great
@chipmanj
for his trust!
Why, OH WHY, did we have to wait this long for a speech from
@EmmanuelMacron
on the world stage that is this clear and intelligible.
There wasn't one sentence that could be misinterpreted, or mistranslated. Nothing that cld blindside allies.
France's public television and radio stations had a special day of programming for/on Lebanon all day today, culminating in a fund-raising concert "United for Lebanon" starting at 9pm Paris time curated by
@ibrahim_maalouf
I can't think of another country where this wld happen
The wife of the Dutch Ambassador to Lebanon died in the
#Beirut
explosion. She was an organ donor. Two patients have reportedly benefited from transplants.
زوجة السفير الهولندي في لبنان ولحظة وفاتها بسبب تفجير المرفأ وهبت البعض من أعضائها لمن هم بأمس الحاجة لها وقد نجحت العمليات الجراحية لمريضين بحاجة لكلوة. تحية لعائلتها على هذا العمل الإنساني
Macron hails "historic day for Europe"
Deal reached
#EUCO
✅ €750 billion recovery plan
✅ Common debt
✅ €390 billion in grants
✅ More rebates, customs retention for frugals, whose contributions to the budget increasing most
✅ Unprecedented Franco-German tandem action
Agree or disagree with Erdogan's methods, it is the Assad regime and Russia that broke the agreed ceasefire. And that have been steadily escalating against Turkish soldiers. Not the other way around.
#Idlib
Walking w/Macron in Gemmayze, Lebanese implored him to "save us from Hezbollah," asked for return of mandate swore at Aoun and Gebran Bassil. In response Macron "I didnt come to legitimize the...regime... im here to propose a new pol'l pact, if they don't [deliver] I will [act]"
كرواسان زعتر، لانه الحالة تعبانة يا ليلى.
Yes, this is a homemade zaatar croissant. Aka I got a croissant from
@dalloyauparis
and stuffed it with Lebanese zaatar and olive oil because it is delicious, and because it’s been that kind of week. Haters can hate.
Actions speak louder than words — except in the case of French President Emmanuel Macron, whose words have far outshone his foreign policy achievements.
His gift of the gab has masked the extent of French impotence in many essential foreign theaters.
From a high-level FR diplo: TIMELINE OF FR/AUS contacts:
FR-AUS contacts timeline (FR-US timeline below)
Fall 2020/Spring 2021 - discussions with Australians about timing and price - at no point was it raised that Australia was thinking about shifting to nuclear-propelled.
1/5
It is quite ironic that Nasrallah met his end because of Oct 7. He is said to have thought Oct 7 was strategically moronic, and ostensibly wasnt read in on the details. He was compelled to put up a show of "unity", miscalculating Israel's revised risk profile and Iran's retreat.
«ne pas exagérer la puissance de [la Russie/Iran] le monde démocratique c’est 60% de l’éco mondiale, 🇷🇺 🇮🇷 se rapprochent comme ils peuvent, c'est du bricolage les compagnies 🇷🇺 sanctionnées, plus avoir accès au marché 🇪🇺 bcp plus lucratif essaient de se faire des marchés 🇮🇷»
Homesick for US. The quiet of snowstorms. Trader Joe's. All the flags. Good mornings from strangers. Bagels. How ppl smell of Tide. Sports arenas. Burmese, Turkish, Iranian take out. Customer service. All-weather joggers. Efficient bureaucracy. Feel-good movies. The smell of CVS.
BIG surprise in French snap elections:
Left-wing coalition FIRST: 172 - 192 seats
Macron's party SECOND: 150 - 170 seats
Far-right RN THIRD: 132 - 152 seats
per IPSOS
HUGE lesson in modesty (for polls/analysts including me), shows how powerful democracy is: the people is king.
The Lebanese watch US, UK, French media. They won't soon forget their wonton dehumanisation and the permissiveness shown re:their civilian losses and Israel's use of white phosphorus to render villages uninhabitable. The damage to the West's standing is hard to overstate.
The majority of the Lebanese who oppose Hezbollah are also disgusted by what Israel has done to Gaza and what it is doing to South Lebanon and the Bekaa. These 2 sentiments are perfectly coherent. And this applies to Muslims and Christians btw. Just look at Lebanese social media.
[A division b/w West and rest? A new world order taking shape/?] "what kind of a [new world] order is this? Who is hegemonic? It's Russia"
Macron dropping truth bombs at UNGA.
Clearly his speech is focused on one audience: the countries that have tried to sit on the fence.
Islamic law of war prohibits harming, targeting non-combattants. Prophet Mohamad specifically mentioned women, children, elderly, clergy.
Hamas militants killing/abusing/taking women, children, elderly ppl hostage are in clear violation of that. Given they pretend to be so pious
Apparently, despite French restrictions preventing most of us from traveling, Justin Bieber has an “imperative” reason that enables him to come to Paris, take romantic strolls with Hailey Baldwin, and have fans crowding (not Covid friendly) outside their hotel. Cool cool cool.
German Vice-Chancellor Habeck says that France and Germany "agree on nothing"
1st time this is said so bluntly, publicly, at such a high level, though it's been the situation since Scholz became Chancellor.
Deep, problematic consequences for the EU in the current context.
Vicechancelier
#Habeck
plaide devant la conférence des ambassadeurs
#BoKo23
à Berlin pour plus de
#souverainet
é européenne. Mais il caractérise l’amitié 🇩🇪🇫🇷 comme „une polarité“. „Nous ne sommes d‘accord sur rien“, dit-il.
#France
#Allemagne
Useless to lead a NATO eFP, or invest €100billion in defense w/o the pol will or courage to stand up to Putin. And what a great signal in favor of a geopolitical EU and Euro strategic sovereignty from Scholz: back down and throw Lithuania under the bus.
Talk about symbolism:
Macron gathered here leaders of all Lebanese political parties around one table in this room at the historic French Ambassador’s residence, with the glass still blown out, and behind the steps where the Greater Lebanon was declared 100yrs ago.
🚨NEWS!
@POLITICOEurope
- expanding our French operation — hold on to your seats: 3x as much politics and 3x as much policy reporting.
And am delighted to become Senior Correspondent, fully conscious of the privilege this job is, and the responsibility that comes with it.
French idiosyncrasy: I finally got my French press card. It says I am an intern, because it's my 1st year working in France. 11 years of experience, 3 wars covered, an Emmy Award (+6 nominations) a Gracie, a Deadline Club Award, count for nothing. Good way to keep ppl humble. 🤣
Macron tested positive for Covid-19 this morning after showing symptoms, according to the Élysée. #
He will isolate for 7 days.
He was meant to be in Lebanon on Dec 22-23 — his isolation technically ends on the 24th.
He hosted Portuguese PM Costa yesterday at the Élysée.
انا لله وانا اليه راجعون
“Nous appartenons à Dieu et à Lui nous retournons”
Ma mère, une combattante d’une grande résilience, s’est éteinte ce matin.
“We belong to God and to Him we shall return”
My mother, a fighter with unique resilience, passed away this morning.
🧵Macron's diplo adviser Emmanuel Bonne's intv at
#AspenSecurityForum
on 🇺🇦, Russia, China [inclu saying 🇨🇳 sending "kind of military equipment" to 🇷🇺]
A revealing convo w/
@jimsciutto
in fluent English, quite rare to see Bonne at such a public forum. More wld benefit France 1/15
Remarkable stmts y'day by
@EmmanuelMacron
on Russia - 🧵
"Russia has suffered a series of strategic defeats...it is reduced to emptying its prisons to replenish its losses at the frontline.
🇷🇺 had returned to intl formats in 90s, it has lost this place and its credibility
High level Turkish official: Trump told Erdogan he was planning to pull troops out of Syria, when the 2 spoke on the phone on Dec 14.
[that's not exactly telling Erdogan military action in NE Syria is "unacceptable" as the Pentagon stated on Dec 12]
Reminder, Macron said this when he met Putin:
“Ukraine... it’s a problem we have to resolve, it’s the key to go from G8 to G7… the return to the G8 or normalisation supposes resolving the Ukrainian issue… the question of the G8 depends on the Ukrainian crisis, very simply.”
The current behind the scenes discussions are *not* abt Europeans sending troops “to fight the Russians”
There are effective and needed tasks these troops could do in Ukraine without being on the frontlines in direct battles with 🇷🇺 troops.
That’s an important difference.
.
@EmmanuelMacron
last night lifted
greatest of all taboos on discussion of western efforts to prevent a Russian victory in Ukraine. Are NATO members ready to send their own forces to fight the Russian invaders? Not yet, Macron said, but the poss should no longer be “excluded” 1/
On Thursday, Emmanuel Macron will give a big press conference to present the priorities of the French presidency of the Council of the EU that kicks off on January 1st.
Stay tuned.
If you're Putin, Xi, Iran and others and you've seen the Biden-Trump debate yesterday, you must be jubilant today. If you're Netenyahu/Ben Gvir/Smotrich you have zero reason to pay heed to anything the US admin tells you at this stage (not that they have since 7Oct).
#Winning
French incoming Junior Minister for Europe
@benjaminhaddad
lays out 3 guiding lines:
1/ Strategic autonomy, investing in European competitiveness
2/ Engaging w/foreign media, conferences, partners
3/ Deepening new partnerships esp w/Central and Eastern Europe "Crucial, strategic"
*Excellente* vaccination au Stade de France. Super organisation, ca va vite et les sapeurs-pompiers vaccinent dans la bonne humeur et avec bcp d’attention. Et l’infirmière qui demande “TOUT LE MONDE VA BIEN?!” au micro de la zone d’observation met l’ambiance 🤣
#Covid19